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Archives: CreditSights Issuer List
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Fundamental View
AS OF 21 Mar 2025Korea National Oil Corp’s credit profile is underpinned by its integral link to and highly strategic policy role for the Korean government; its credit rating is equalized to Korea’s sovereign rating.
KOROIL’s standalone credit profile is weighed down by its smaller scale compared to other Asian national oil producers, its lack of downstream integration, elevated leverage and a low cash coverage of short-term debt.
That said, we are not overly concerned as we take comfort in its highly strategic policy role to the Korean government, which translates into strong government financial support (codified in law under the KNOC Act) and enables KOROIL to enjoy robust access to both domestic and overseas funding channels.
Business Description
AS OF 21 Mar 2025- In FY24, KOROIL derives its revenues from oil & gas sales (91% of revenues), oil stockpiling (7%), and others including petroleum distribution (1%).
- The oil and gas sales segment is responsible for exploration and development of domestic and overseas resources and sales of crude oil. KOROIL has 29 E&P projects in 15 countries (including Canada, UK, US, Libya, Kazakhstan, Vietnam and UAE), with total production capacity of 136 mboe/day and proven reserves of 931 mmboe. It owns nine strategic petroleum reserve facilities across South Korea with total capacity of 146 mmboe and total reserves of 99.5 mmboe. ME/Asia, Americas and Europe/Africa account for 40%, 33% and 27% of its daily output volume respectively. That said, its daily production capacity (136 mboe) is relatively small compared to its Asian E&P peers, such as CNOOC, CNPC and Sinopec which produce 1-3 mmboe per day; it is not active in the mid-stream oil refinery segment, unlike the other national oil companies in Asia.
- KOROIL maintains oil stockpile of 115 days of net imports, higher than France (82 days), Germany (91 days) and comparable to Japan (120 days).
- Similar to other Korean quasi-sovereign corporates, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, and the Ministry of Economy and Finance of the Korea government supervise KOROIL's budgeting, business planning and financial performance, and appoint its president, auditors and nonstanding directors of the board.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 21 Mar 2025Compared to Chinese national oil companies, such as Sinopec and CNPC, KOROIL is less diversified with limited mid and downstream operations such as refining, chemicals, sales and marketing. This makes the firm’s profitability more vulnerable to cyclical oil & gas prices. A substantial decline in oil and gas prices will have a negative impacts on KOROIL’s topline and also lead to impairment losses on its assets.
Pursuant to the June 2016 Government Plan, KOROIL has developed and is implementing a plan for the sale of its interests in less profitable overseas E&P projects, including projects with unsuccessful explorations, less-than-expected reserves and subject to geopolitical/political uncertainties, and could result in asset write-offs.
As majority of KOROIL’s E&P assets are located offshore, its business performance is subjected to exchange rate fluctuations and regional geopolitical risks.
Key Metric
AS OF 21 Mar 2025| KRW bn | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 113.2% | 116.5% | 112.4% | 111.4% | 110.2% |
| Net Debt to Book Cap | 107.1% | 110.6% | 107.6% | 107.1% | 108.1% |
| Debt to Equity | (856.4%) | (704.6%) | (903.7%) | (976.5%) | (1,083.4%) |
| Gross Leverage | 20.0x | 15.9x | 5.8x | 7.8x | 8.5x |
| Net Leverage | 18.9x | 15.1x | 5.6x | 7.5x | 8.3x |
| Interest Coverage | 1.6x | 2.3x | 5.9x | 4.0x | 3.6x |
| EBITDA Margin | 38.0% | 46.8% | 67.7% | 60.4% | 58.3% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 24 Mar 2025We have an Outperform recommendation on Korea National Oil Corp. We expect the company’s government shareholding and strong policy role, and the resulting excellent funding access will continue to mitigate its elevated leverage and low cash coverage of short-term debt. We like KOROIL for high-quality carry, and we view its curve as attractive compared to other Korean quasi sovereigns, BBB-rated Korean IG corporates and Chinese quasi-sovereigns. We prefer its longer-dated 30s, 31s and 32s which are trading >20 bp wider than similar maturities of China quasi-sovereign issuers rated 2-3 notches lower.
Recommendation Reviewed: March 24, 2025
Recommendation Changed: November 06, 2023
Who We Recommend
Korea Gas Corp.
Macquarie Bank
Siam Commercial Bank
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.SM Investments Corporation
- Sector: Banking and Real EstateRetail
- Sub Sector: Diversified Conglomerate
- Country: Philippines
- Bond: SMPM 5.375 29
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.851%
- Credit Rating : M/P
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Our View
AS OF 20 Mar 2025Who We Recommend
Korea Gas Corp.
Macquarie Bank
Siam Commercial Bank
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Mexico
- Bond: Mex 4.125 26
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.365%
- Credit Rating : BBB
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Country Overview
AS OF 19 Mar 2025- Mexico, the second largest economy in Latin America and among the world’s top 15, generated an estimated GDP of USD 1.79 trillion in 2023. (World Bank, 2023).
- While the World Bank classifies Mexico as an “Upper-Middle Income, Developing” economy with a per capita GDP of USD 24,766.6 (2023), MSCI’s 2024 Market Classification Review designates it as an Emerging Market, indicating that it is adequate but still developing.
- Though a net importer, Mexico boasts a robust export sector, primarily in petroleum, digital processing units, and automobiles, which generated approximately USD 82.8 million in revenue (WITS, 2022). This economic activity is largely fueled by the services sector, contributing roughly 60% to GDP, and an increasingly skilled, yet affordable, workforce (Global Finance Magazine, 2024).
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Who We Recommend
Korea Gas Corp.
Macquarie Bank
Siam Commercial Bank
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.T-Mobile US
- Sector: Technology Media and Telecommunications
- Sub Sector: Telecommunications
- Region: US
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Fundamental View
AS OF 18 Mar 2025We expect T-Mobile will maintain its position as the industry leader in postpaid phone net additions, service revenue and EBITDA growth in 2025. We think the company has significant subscriber runway remaining in the suburban/rural and enterprise markets.
Adjusted net leverage (2.4x at 4Q24) is 0.3x/0.5x lower than AT&T/Verizon. Relatively strong EBITDA growth and a modest dividend commitment results in greater financial flexibility than peers.
T-Mobile benefits from the strongest spectrum position in the industry, including an average of 181 MHz in the 2.5 GHz band, which results in better 5G network coverage than AT&T and Verizon.
Business Description
AS OF 18 Mar 2025- TMUS is the one of the top 3 U.S. wireless carriers and is owned ~50% by Deutsche Telekom (DT). On April 1, 2020, TMUS and S completed an all-stock merger, valuing S at an EV of approximately $59.7 bn.
- TMUS ended 4Q24 with ~130 mn customers, including 104 mn postpaid and 25 mn prepaid.
- TMUS reaches 330+mn POPs with its Extended Range 5G network (using the 600 MHz spectrum) and reaches 300mn customers with its Ultra Capacity 5G.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 18 Mar 2025Converged wireless/broadband offers from cable operators raises the risk of pricing pressure in the mature consumer wireless market.
The company has not shied away from acquisitions. T-Mobile recently acquired Mint Mobile and announced deals for US Cellular and two FTTH JVs (Lumos and MetroNet). So far, M&A has not had much impact on T-Mobile’s credit metrics, but further moves into FTTH may be received poorly by investors.
With T-Mobile’s credit rating now comfortably in the mid-BBB area and leverage in the vicinity of the group’s mid-2x target area, we expect the company’s capital allocation to shift toward shareholder returns.
Key Metric
AS OF 18 Mar 2025| $ mn | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 68,397 | 80,118 | 79,571 | 78,558 | 81,400 |
| Organic Revenue Growth | 5.8% | 7.3% | (0.7%) | (1.3%) | 3.6% |
| EBITDA | 24,557 | 26,924 | 27,821 | 29,428 | 31,864 |
| Adj. EBITDA Growth | 4.3% | (64.0%) | 33.9% | 5.8% | 8.3% |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | 35.9% | 33.6% | 35.0% | 37.5% | 39.1% |
| CapEx % of Sales | 16.1% | 15.4% | 17.6% | 12.5% | 10.9% |
| Total Debt | 76,660 | 79,574 | 78,425 | 83,586 | 84,255 |
| Net Debt | 66,275 | 72,943 | 73,918 | 78,451 | 78,846 |
| Gross Leverage | 3.5x | 3.4x | 3.0x | 2.9x | 2.7x |
| Net Leverage | 0.0x | 3.0x | 2.7x | 2.6x | 2.4x |
| Interest Coverage | 9.0x | 7.2x | 8.0x | 8.3x | 8.7x |
| FCF as % of Debt | 14.1% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 19.2% | 23.0% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 14 May 2025We expect TMUS will once again lead the Big 3 in major KPIs in 2025, including ~5% EBITDA growth. We view earnings/growth visibility as higher than peers, with the outlook supported by its leading 5G mid-band coverage (over 300 million PoPs with ~200 MHz) and historical under-penetration in rural and enterprise markets. T-Mobile also boasts the lowest leverage (~2.3x) and strongest FCF/debt ratio amongst the Wireless Big 3, while its rising FCF generation and comparatively low dividend commitment provide flexibility for selective M&A. Despite the rising focus on convergence, we believe TMUS will stick with its off-balance sheet strategy for FTTH JVs and view the risk of a transformational broadband acquisition (ILEC or cable) as extremely low.
Recommendation Reviewed: May 14, 2025
Recommendation Changed: March 18, 2021
Who We Recommend
Korea Gas Corp.
Macquarie Bank
Siam Commercial Bank
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Netflix Inc.
- Sector: Media
- Sub Sector: Technology
- Region: US
- Bond: NFLX 4.875 30
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.311%
- Credit Rating : Baa1/A/-
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Fundamental View
AS OF 18 Mar 2025- Netflix is one of the few clear winners in the industry’s transition to streaming, and we believe the group’s leading position will be bolstered in 2025 as legacy media companies continue to rein in spending and international ambitions.
- From a financial perspective, we expect Netflix will deliver 20+% EBITDA growth in 2025 driven by a mix of subscriber growth, price hikes and margin expansion.
- Netflix’s financial policy is relatively conservative. While the company no longer targets $10-15 billion of gross debt, we view Netflix’s new financial policy as an evolution rather than a revolution and expect credit metrics to remain best in class.
Business Description
AS OF 18 Mar 2025- NFLX is the world's leading subscription streaming entertainment service with ~302 mn paid streaming subs in 190+ countries around the world. NFLX's programming includes original & acquired TV series, documentaries and feature films.
- NFLX began expanding internationally with the launch of services in Canada (Sep 2010), followed by LatAm (Sep 2011), and the UK and Ireland (Jan 2012). NFLX launched services in 17 more markets at a measured pace through the end of 2015 before launching in the rest of the world in Jan 2016 (ex-China, N Korea, Syria, Crimea).
- As of FY24, Netflix's regional subscriber breakdown was as follows: (1) EMEA - 101.1 mn; (2) UCAN - 89.6 mn; (3) APAC - 57.5 mn and (4) LATAM - 53.3 mn.
- Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters are Co-CEOs, with Mr. Sarandos appointed to the position in July 2020 and Mr. Peters in January 2023. Co-founder Reed Hastings was appointed as executive chairman of the Board in January 2023.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 18 Mar 2025- Market Saturation: Netflix is highly penetrated in the US market, so future growth will become increasingly dependent on price increases, uptake of the ad tier and success on the password sharing crackdown. The recent WWE and NFL deals also opens the door to higher-priced sports programming.
- Increased Competition: Several large competitors including Amazon and Apple are increasingly leaning into DTC video offerings on a global basis. Heightened competition may result in rising churn & declining gross additions for NFLX.
- M&A Risk: Netflix is in the early stages of an expansion into video games and has already acquired several studios. Additionally, several legacy media companies are weakly positioned and are actively considering asset sales. We believe Netflix has no interest in linear TV assets, but could be open to a studio purchase under the right circumstances.
Key Metric
AS OF 18 Mar 2025| $ mn | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 24,996 | 29,698 | 31,616 | 33,723 | 39,001 |
| Revenue YoY % | 24.0% | 18.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 15.6% |
| EBITDA | 5,116 | 6,806 | 6,695 | 7,650 | 11,019 |
| EBITDA Growth | 64% | 33% | (2%) | 14% | 44% |
| Cash Content Expense | 12,537 | 17,469 | 16,660 | 13,140 | 17,003 |
| CFO - CapEx | 1,929 | (132) | 1,619 | 6,926 | 6,922 |
| Dividends/CFO-Capex | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| LTM CFO-CapEx to Debt | 11.8% | (0.9%) | 11.3% | 47.6% | 44.4% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 18 Apr 2025We believe Netflix’s premium valuation is justified given the group’s leading scale, operating momentum and credit metrics, which stand in stark contrast to the pressures facing legacy media peers. Netflix is one of the few clear winners in the industry’s transition to streaming, and we believe the group is on track to extend its leading position during a period of rising macro uncertainty since its legacy media competition is much more exposed to advertising market pressures. The company’s gross leverage is already best in class at ~1.3x, and we expect Netflix can generate ~$8+ billion of FCF in FY25 with a FCF to debt ratio in the ~60% area. Netflix is also positioned to maintain its double-digit top line and profit growth in 2025.
Recommendation Reviewed: April 18, 2025
Recommendation Changed: October 20, 2022
Who We Recommend
Korea Gas Corp.
Macquarie Bank
Siam Commercial Bank
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Security Bank
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Country: Philippines
- Bond: SECBPM 5.5 29
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.704%
- Credit Rating : BBB
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Fundamental View
AS OF 27 Feb 2025- Security Bank is the 7th largest bank in the Philippines by total assets and was established on June 18, 1951. Its dollar bonds provide better yield pickup compared to its nearest comparable. We remain comfortable with the bond given Security Bank’s total capital ratio of 14.20%, which is 400 basis points above the minimum regulatory hurdle, which can buffer modest credit losses in its loan portfolios should macroeconomic headwinds worsen.
Business Description
AS OF 27 Feb 2025- Security Bank is the 7th largest bank in the Philippines by total assets and was established on June 18, 1951. Security Bank’s businesses include wholesale banking, financial markets, and retail banking. The bank provides commercial banking services such as deposit products, loans and trade finance, domestic and foreign fund transfers, treasury, foreign exchange, and trust services.
- Security Bank's loan portfolio is 32% consumer & MSME, 28% middle market, and 40% corporate as of 3Q 2024.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 27 Feb 2025- Any rating downgrade of the Philippine sovereign would have a negative impact on Security Bank.
- Given the current rate cut environment that drives funding costs lower, Its strategy to aggressively capture market share in the retail and MSME segment might allow the bank to deliver faster growth and higher net interest income margin.
- Rapid expansion on higher yielding retail and MSME segments could worsen asset quality and increase credit costs.
Who We Recommend
Korea Gas Corp.
Macquarie Bank
Siam Commercial Bank
How may we help you?
Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
- Bond: KSA 5.125 28
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.498%
- Credit Rating : Aa3 / - / A+
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Country Overview
AS OF 27 Feb 2025- The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s economy is heavily reliant on its petroleum sector. Oil accounts for almost 40% of Saudi’s GDP and 75% of its fiscal revenue.
- Saudi Arabia has the second largest proven petroleum reserves and fourth largest measured natural gas reserves. It is currently the largest exporter of petroleum in the world.
- As of 2023, Saudi Arabia’s main exports were China (12.0% of total exports), Japan (6.4%), India (6.3%), and South Korea (6.1%)
Macro Fundamentals
AS OF 27 Feb 2025- There is an expectation that deficits may remain within the 4% -7% assuming Brent averages at less than USD 75 per barrel in 2025. Despite this, we still expect its credit to remain stable given that its deficits are still in line with developed economies.
- The debt-to-GDP ratio of about 28.3% remains low compared to its developed economy peers. Combined with sizable reserve buffers, this mitigates any potential headwinds from the country’s oil sector.
- Saudi Arabia’s inflation is within modest levels given that the riyal is pegged at 3.75 riyals per US dollar since 1986. Its monetary authority also mirrors the US Fed’s decisions when it comes to local rates.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 27 Feb 2025- Saudi Arabia’s government revenues are closely linked to fluctuations in oil prices. Lower oil prices could result in slower economic growth and higher deficits.
- Saudi Arabia has huge forex reserves to maintain its peg to the US dollar in the event of external shocks.
- The government aims to diversify the economy with multibillion investments in the technology and tourism sectors. However, the high costs could pose a risk to the government budget balance.
Who We Recommend
Korea Gas Corp.
Macquarie Bank
Siam Commercial Bank
How may we help you?
Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Meta Platforms
- Sector: TechnologyTechnology Media and Telecommunications
- Sub Sector: Technology
- Country: US
- Bond: META 4.95 33
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.95%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 25 Feb 2025We are encouraged by Meta’s strong advertising growth relative to peers in 2023 and 2024. Meta has extremely strong credit metrics of 0.3x gross leverage and $49 bn net cash. We continue to expect Meta to be a regular/annual issuer to fund its shareholder returns and massive investments in AI and the metaverse.
Longer term, we expect Meta to adhere to its previously communicated financial policy of maintaining a positive or neutral cash balance. Meta does have legal and regulatory risks notably an FTC suit that seeks to unwind its prior acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp. However, not all event risk is negative as Meta would be the greatest beneficiary from a potential TikTok ban.
Business Description
AS OF 25 Feb 2025- Meta Platforms is the largest social networking company in the world. Meta generates substantially all of its revenue from advertising which includes Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and third-party affiliated websites or mobile applications.
- In 4Q24, Family of Apps was 98% of revenue (96.7% from advertising and 1.1% from other) and Reality Labs was 2% of revenue. Reality Labs generated $17.7 bn in operating losses during LTM 4Q24 as the company is investing heavily in the metaverse.
- There are 3.35 bn Family Daily Active People (DAP) as of 4Q24, and the Family Average Revenue per Person (ARPP) was $14.25 quarterly in 4Q24.
- Meta is headquartered in Menlo Park, California. Employee headcount was >74k at 4Q24.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 25 Feb 2025In December 2020, the FTC filed a lawsuit against Meta targeting its acquisitions of Instagram and Whatsapp. If Meta is forced to unwind prior acquisitions, this would be a credit negative given reduced scale and diversification.
Meta’s business model relies almost entirely on user-generated content. As such, there are risks related to customer privacy (e.g., Cambridge Analytica data scandal in 2018) and regulatory changes (e.g., Section 230 protections).
In April 2024, the US signed into law a bill requiring a sale or ban of TikTok, although Trump signed an executive order instructing the Attorney General to not enforce the TikTok ban for 75 days (to 4/5/2025). If a ban is implemented, this would positively impact Meta and others with competing short-form video products.
In October 2022, activist Altimeter Capital wrote a letter to Zuck and Board although it was on the friendly-side of activism and some suggestions have already been implemented.
Key Metric
AS OF 25 Feb 2025| $ mn | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | LTM 4Q24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY % | 21.6% | 37.2% | (1.1%) | 15.7% | 21.9% |
| EBITDA | 46,069 | 63,882 | 49,622 | 71,955 | 101,568 |
| EBITDA Margin | 53.6% | 54.2% | 42.6% | 53.3% | 61.7% |
| CapEx % of Sales | 18.3% | 16.3% | 27.5% | 20.8% | 23.8% |
| Sh. Ret. % of CFO-CapEx | 27% | 116% | 152% | 46% | 68% |
| Net Debt | (61,954) | (47,998) | (30,815) | (47,018) | (48,989) |
| Gross Leverage | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.2x | 0.3x | 0.3x |
| EV / EBITDA | 15.8x | 14.0x | 5.8x | 12.3x | 14.5x |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 01 May 2025We are encouraged by Meta’s strong advertising growth relative to peers in 2023, 2024, and 1Q25. Meta has extremely strong credit metrics of 0.3x gross leverage and $41 bn net cash. We continue to expect Meta to be a regular/annual issuer to fund its shareholder returns and massive investments in AI and the metaverse. Longer term, we expect Meta to adhere to its previously communicated financial policy of maintaining a positive or neutral cash balance. Meta does have legal and regulatory risks notably an FTC suit that seeks to unwind its prior acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp. In addition, the recent EC decision could have an impact as early as 3Q25. However, not all event risk is negative as Meta would be the greatest beneficiary from a potential TikTok ban.
Recommendation Reviewed: May 01, 2025
Recommendation Changed: April 18, 2024
Who We Recommend
Korea Gas Corp.
Macquarie Bank
Siam Commercial Bank
How may we help you?
Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Amazon.com
- Sector: ConsumerTechnology Media and Telecommunications
- Sub Sector: Retail/GrocersTechnology
- Region: US
- Bond: AMZN 4.65 29
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.035 %
- Credit Rating : A1/AA/AA-
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Fundamental View
AS OF 25 Feb 2025- We continue to have confidence in CEO Andy Jassy and the company’s long-term business for both AWS and Stores. The recent operating trends reinforce our views particularly the margin improvement. We continue to believe that Amazon is an underappreciated winner in Generative AI given the breadth of its cloud business and offerings including custom silicon and its platform Bedrock.
- Gross leverage declined to 0.4x and 0.9x on a lease-adjusted basis. While Amazon is increasing its capex spend (along with the other hyperscalers), we are encouraged by its debt reduction and zero shareholder returns. Also, Amazon’s equity cushion is ~$2.2 tn. There are risks related to the FTC suit although we expect those to be addressed by behavioral remedies, and we view a breakup as unlikely.
Business Description
AS OF 25 Feb 2025- Amazon is an e-commerce company which sells a wide range of its own products and those of 3rd party sellers. Amazon offers fulfillment services for 3rd party sellers (FBA) and sells cloud computing services (AWS). In 4Q24, 3rd party units were 62% of total paid units, and FBA units are a majority of 3rd party units.
- In LTM 4Q24, NA segment was 61% of sales, International was 22% of sales, and AWS was 17% of sales.
- Amazon disclosed it surpassed 200 mn Prime members in April 2021. The annual membership was increased in February 2022 from $119 to $139 in the US, although fees vary by country. In mid-2019, Amazon Prime began to transition from 2-day to 1-day shipping. Amazon Prime also offers Prime Video, streaming music, and other benefits.
- In 2006, Amazon launched AWS which remains the leader in cloud computing (IaaS/PaaS). Amazon sells its own devices (e-reader, smart speaker, streaming media player, etc.).
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 25 Feb 2025- We think Amazon has moderate event risk given its large size (~$2.2 tn market cap).
- While Amazon is increasing its CapEx spend, we are encouraged by the $14 bn reduction in lease-adjusted debt from year-end 2022 through year-end 2024.
- Amazon continues to face regulatory scrutiny. In September 2023, the FTC and 17 states filed a lawsuit against Amazon and accused the company of (1) punishing sellers for offering lower prices elsewhere and (2) making Prime eligibility conditional on usage of fulfillment services. The biggest risk would be a breakup, although we view that as unlikely.
- Amazon’s $14 bn acquisition of Whole Foods has shown its proclivity for large M&A, although the regulatory environment could make large deals challenging.
Key Metric
AS OF 25 Feb 2025| $ mn | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | LTM 4Q24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY % | 37.6% | 21.7% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 11.0% |
| EBITDA | 57,284 | 71,994 | 74,593 | 110,305 | 144,162 |
| EBITDA Margin | 14.8% | 15.3% | 14.5% | 19.2% | 22.6% |
| CapEx % of Sales | 12.1% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 12.3% |
| Sh. Ret. % of CFO-CapEx | 0% | 0% | (49%) | 0% | 0% |
| Net Debt | (50,497) | (44,771) | 7,316 | (19,598) | (43,202) |
| Gross Leverage | 0.6x | 0.7x | 1.0x | 0.6x | 0.4x |
| EV / EBITDA | 28.3x | 23.3x | 11.7x | 14.4x | 16.1x |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 11 Jun 2025We continue to have confidence in CEO Andy Jassy and the company’s long-term business for both AWS and Stores. AWS is now a $117 bn run-rate business and delivered record operating margin of 39.5% in 1Q25. We continue to believe that Amazon will be a winner in Generative AI given the breadth of its cloud business and offerings including custom silicon (Trainium, Inferentia) and its platform Amazon Bedrock. We estimate leverage was roughly flat at 0.4x gross and 0.9x lease-adjusted gross. While Amazon’s capex has been ramping, along with other hyperscalers, we are encouraged by its debt reduction over the past few years and zero shareholder returns. Also, Amazon’s market cap is $2.1 tn. There are risks related to the FTC suit although we view a breakup as unlikely.
Recommendation Reviewed: June 11, 2025
Recommendation Changed: May 01, 2024
Who We Recommend
Korea Gas Corp.
Macquarie Bank
Siam Commercial Bank
How may we help you?
Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Export-Import Bank of India
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Financial Services
- Region: India
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.92%
- Credit Rating : ( Baa3 / BBB- / BBB- )
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Fundamental View
AS OF 27 Dec 2024The Export-Import Bank of India (EXIMBK) was founded in 1982. Its credit standing is built upon the key role it plays in the promotion of India’s cross border trade and investment development, as India’s official export credit agency.
EXIMBK is 100% owned by the Government of India. Given its crucial policy role, close governmental links and quasi-sovereign status, we view it as inconceivable that the Indian government would fail to provide EXIMBK with support in a timely manner, if needed.
Business Description
AS OF 27 Dec 2024- EXIMBK presently serves as a growth engine for the internationalization efforts of Indian businesses, facilitating the import of technology and export product development, export production, export marketing, pre- and post-shipment, as well as overseas investment.
- As at F1H25, EXIMBK's loan portfolio was principally made up of export finance (68%) and term loans to exporters (18%), with the remaining 14% split among the financing of overseas investment, import finance, and export facilitation. 44% come under the policy business/face GOI risk while the remaining 56% are to the commercial business.
- By geography, the bank has a primary exposure of 33% to Africa, 56% to Asia (mainly South Asia), 7% to Europe and the Americas, and the remaining to the rest of the world.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 27 Dec 2024As a quasi-sovereign issuer with backstops from the Government of India and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), it is viewed as a proxy to the sovereign. Any downgrade to India’s sovereign rating will flow through to EXIMBK as well.
EXIMBK’s policy role may require it to, at times, take on exposures that could lead to financial losses. This has led to poor asset quality and high impairment charges similar to the public sector commercial banks during the years leading up to the pandemic.
Capital standing, however, is robust thanks to capital infusions from the Government of India which have been stepped up in recent years – INR 50 bn was injected in FY19, followed by infusions of INR 15 bn and INR 13 bn in FY20 and FY21 respectively. The bank received INR 7.5 bn in FY22 despite capital levels remaining strong during the year. No infusions have been made since FY23 due to the comfortable capital position.
Key Metric
AS OF 27 Dec 2024| INR mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 1H25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Margin (Annual) | 1.84% | 2.19% | 2.29% | 2.06% | 1.70% |
| ROAA | 0.19% | 0.54% | 1.04% | 1.43% | 1.16% |
| ROAE | 1.49% | 3.97% | 7.76% | 11.47% | 9.54% |
| Equity/Assets | 13.23% | 14.12% | 12.87% | 12.06% | 12.31% |
| Tier 1 Capital Ratio | 24.0% | 28.6% | 23.7% | 19.6% | 27.4% |
| Gross NPA Ratio | 6.69% | 3.56% | 4.09% | 1.94% | 2.02% |
| Provisions/Loans | 2.46% | 0.90% | 1.24% | 0.29% | 0.16% |
| Pre-Impairment Operating Profit / Average Assets | 2.13% | 2.31% | 2.41% | 2.12% | 1.68% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 06 Jan 2025Exim Bank of India is the country’s key policy bank with full government support. It provides financial assistance to exporters and importers with a view to promote trade in India. It is 100% owned by the Government of India (GoI) and is a proxy to the India sovereign in international debt markets (quasi-sovereign status). The bank cannot be liquidated without the government’s approval and has a track record of government capital infusions. The bank’s asset quality is back on track after some wobbles in previous years. Capital levels are strong. We maintain a Market perform recommendation on the bank.
Recommendation Reviewed: January 06, 2025
Recommendation Changed: January 04, 2021
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