WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) closed lower by 1.82% (-120.16 points) week-on-week, finishing at 6,469.72. The market was rattled by the recent turmoil in the banking sector, as news of Credit Suisse’s weaknesses in its internal controls over financial reporting and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) sparked fears of contagion in the financial sector.

Mid-week, the PSEi bounced back on technical factors and stronger sentiment in global markets. US inflation came in line with expectations at 6.0% year-on-year for February 2023 (January 2023: 6.4% year-on-year). By Thursday, the index fell again as risk aversion in Asia-Pacific markets weighed on sentiment.

The market recovered some of its losses on Friday following the pledge of 11 banks to deposit USD 30 billion in First Republic Bank, which helped to ease investor anxiety.

Top index performers were Semirara Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC) (+5.0%), DMCI Holdings Inc. (DMC) (+4.9%), and BDO Unibank Inc. (BDO) (+2.7%), while index laggards were Wilcon Depot Inc. (WLCON) (-9.8%), Converge (CNVRG) (-9.7%), and Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (MPI) (-8.4%).

The index breadth was negative with seven gainers versus 23 losers. The average daily turnover value was PHP 5.9 billion. Foreigners were net sellers by PHP 27.3 billion (PHP 20.4 billion of which came from the ICT block sale).

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

We expect the market to see continued volatility due to the uncertainty surrounding the global banking system and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates.

The market will price in the news that UBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse for about USD 3.2 billion as governments looked to stem a contagion threatening the global banking system. Investors will be closely watching the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting on March 22 and 23.

Market analysts are now forecasting a smaller 25-basis-point (bp) rate hike rather than the expected 50-bp hike due to concerns around the impact of tight monetary policy on the banking sector.

The decision will be critical for the economy and the markets moving forward, as the Fed attempts to balance moves to rein in persistent inflation while also managing the impact of recent banking woes.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

MREIT, Inc. (MREIT) — BUY ON BREAKOUT

We see the REIT sector benefiting from a Fed/ BSP pivot or pause in the next six months, with MREIT among our preferred picks in the sector. We have a BUY call for MREIT, with a target price of PHP 15.30, implying an attractive dividend yield of 7.1%/7.1% on our forecasted payout for full year 2023 and 2024.

However, we advocate patience in accumulating the stock now. The risk of a downward price action has increased in the near term, as the high interest rate cycle appears to be extended for longer, with both the Fed and BSP’s fight against inflation still far from over.

Hence, we prefer to wait for better entry points – when the Fed/BSP are close to a pause – to potentially lock in better yields and, at the same time, position to benefit from capital appreciation as interest rates peak and economic growth risks come to the fore.

On price action, MREIT must break above PHP 15.00 for the stock to resume its bullish price action. Accumulating once MREIT breaks above PHP 15.00 is advisable. Set cut loss below PHP 14.20. Take profit at around PHP 16.80/PHP 18.00. For long-term investors, our target price for MREIT is PHP 15.30.

Ayala Corp. (AC) — BUY

Since February 2023, AC’s share price has fallen by as much as 13% amid fears of higher interest rates. The recent correction brought AC to trade at its key support area of PHP 600.00.

That said, aggressive short-term traders/ bargain hunters can attempt to take advantage of the stock to ride the probable bounce. The key risk for the stock is that the break below PHP 590.00 would result in further pullback. Tight stops must be in place. Accumulating AC at current levels is advisable. Set stop limit orders below PHP 575.00. Take profit at around PHP 690.00/PHP 700.00.

Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (MPI) — BUY ON BREAKOUT

MPI reported consolidated core net income of PHP 14.2 billion (+15% y-o-y) for full year 2022, which is below consensus expectations, as the better performance from its toll and energy segments were pared by the underperformance of its light rail and water businesses.

For hospitals, core income dropped to PHP 1.1 billion (-24% y-o-y), attributed to higher personnel costs with the additional headcount and higher depreciation from completed capex as they resume expansion plans. The recent correction brought the stock to trade below its previous support level of PHP 4.00 and its key moving averages (50-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs).

We think MPI must first break above PHP 4.00 for the stock to turn bullish. Accumulating once MPI breaks above PHP 4.00 is advisable. Set cut loss below PHP 3.70. Take profit at around PHP 4.60/PHP 4.80.

PSEi TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Resistance: 6,600 / 6,800

Support: 6,400 / 6,200

As expected, after the market broke below the index’s 100-day/200-day moving average price (MA), the market retested (and briefly broke below) the 6,400 level. However, the PSEi rebounded after trading at oversold levels. Then again, the market remains below the 200-day MA. Meanwhile, the technical indicator MACD remains below both the signal and zero lines, suggesting continued bearish momentum. Should the PSEi fail to sustain its rebound and stay below the 200-day MA, expect the market to retest 6,200.

TRADING PLAN

Gradually accumulate once the PSEi trades back above 6,800.

KEY DATA RELEASES

Tuesday, March 21, 2023
– US Existing Home Sales for February 2023 (consensus estimate: 4.15 million; January 2023: 4 million)

Wednesday, March 22, 2023
– Corporate Earnings: Monde Nissin (MONDE)

Thursday, March 23, 2023
– US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) interest rate decision (consensus estimate: 25-bp rate increase)
– BSP Overnight Borrowing Rate (consensus estimate: 25-bp rate increase)
– US Initial Jobless Claims as of March 18, 2023 (previous: 192k)
– US New Home Sales for February 2023 (consensus estimate: 650k; January 2023: 670k)
– Corporate Earnings: PLDT (TEL)

Friday, March 24, 2023
– US S&P Global preliminary manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) for March 2023 (consensus estimate: 47.3; February 2023: 47.3)
– Corporate Earnings: GT Capital (GTCAP)

Philippine inflation reached another record high of 8.7% in January 2023, the highest in 14 years, primarily driven by a climb in prices of housing and utilities, with rental rates being adjusted to reflect the economic reopening, and higher food prices due to supply issues of key agricultural commodities.

Despite consistent US Fed rate hike signals, the peso has also strengthened against the US dollar, trading mostly at the PHP 54 to PHP 55 levels during the first months of 2023 as markets seemingly priced in expectations of a less aggressive Fed.

Considering these new developments, here is our updated forecast for 2023:

For more information on the performance and outlook for several macroeconomic indicators, as well as local and global macroeconomic news, please download the full report (released on February 13, 2023) here.

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) fell by 0.46% week-on-week to close at 6,655.37 (-30.53 points), marking its fifth straight week of decline. The market started the week in the red as it tracked US markets and Asian peers amid expectations of higher rate hikes in the US following the hotter-than-expected personal consumption expenditures (PCE).

On the local front, the market traded lower amid the effectivity of the MSCI rebalancing. The local bourse subsequently posted moderate gains from Wednesday to Friday as prices recovered after the MSCI rebalancing-related trades.

Top index performers were Metro Pacific Investments Corporation (MPI) (+11.1%), San Miguel Corporation (SMC) (+5.7%), and Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) (+4.7%), while index laggards were Converge (CNVRG) (-6.0%), JG Summit (JGS) (-5.2%), and Globe Telecom (GLO) (-3.7%). The index breadth was positive with 18 gainers versus 12 losers. The average daily turnover value was PHP 9.3 billion. Foreigners were net sellers by PHP 7.0 billion.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

We expect the market to trade with a downward bias ahead of the release of the February 2023 inflation data. Investors are anticipating a faster February inflation print at 8.9% (BSP’s forecast: 8.5% to 9.3%) compared to the prior month’s 8.7% year-on-year.

This will guide the magnitude of local rate hikes moving forward as Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Felipe Medalla signaled the higher likelihood of a 50-bp rate hike should the February 2023 inflation rate exceed 9%. At the same time, investors will be closely monitoring the slew of PSEi full-year 2022 earnings releases and management guidance for 2023.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Manila Electric Company (MER) — BUY ON BREAKOUT

MER recorded a full-year 2022 consolidated core net income of PHP 27.1 billion (+10% y-o-y) — ahead of consensus estimates. Energy sales volumes exceeded pre-pandemic levels, in line with its target sales volume growth of within 5-6%. Its power generation business in Singapore registered significant earnings. The outperformance of the commercial sector is also consistent with our view given that retail, restaurants, education, and public transport segments are expected to pick up.

As for the dividends, MER disclosed that actual dividends for 2023 could be similar to the one declared for 2022, which is 70% of core net income. As for price action, MER is gradually showing signs of bullish recovery. We think that a break above PHP 320.00 will result in further upside. Accumulating once MER breaks above PHP 320.00 is advisable. Set stop limit orders below PHP 300.00.

Robinsons Land Corp. (RLC) — BUY

RLC’s share price has pulled back and is now hovering near its 52-week low of PHP 14.50. The recent correction brought RLC near the lower end of its PHP 14.50 to PHP 16.80 trading range, where the risk-to-reward ratio is favorable. Aggressive short-term traders/ bargain hunters can attempt to take advantage of the stock trading at oversold levels to ride the probable bounce.

As for fundamentals, we take comfort that the outlook for RLC’s main business segments remains positive. We expect operational conditions should continue to improve amid further reopening and backed by full reinstatement of mall rental rates beginning the second half of 2022 supported by faster-than-expected recovery of tenant sales now hitting above pre-pandemic levels. Accumulating RLC at current levels is advisable. Set stop limit orders below PHP 14.30 and take profits at around PHP 16.80/PHP 17.50, PHP 25 for long-term investors.

Globe Telecom, Inc. (GLO) — BUY ON PULLBACKS

In February 2023, GLO’s share price dropped by 12% to its 2021 lows at around PHP 1,770 amid its removal from the MSCI index as well as the lower-than-expected full-year 2022 earnings. We think that GLO will rebound as share price usually normalizes post-MSCI rebalancing. Aggressive short-term traders/ bargain hunters can attempt to take advantage of the stock trading at near 2021 lows to ride the probable bounce.

As for fundamentals, the mobile segment will remain challenged as the full impact of the recent regulatory measures has yet to be fully felt. With GLO’s uncompetitive fixed line business relative to competition, and low revenue contribution from corporate data (c.10% of service revenues), we see the weakness of the mobile business to be most impactful to the company, as the segment accounts for the bulk of its total service revenues (c.70%). Accumulating once GLO pulls back to PHP 1,810/PHP 1,800 is advisable. Set stop limit orders below PHP 1,760.00 and take profits at around PHP 2,000.00/PHP 2,100.00.

PSEi TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Resistance: 6,800

Support: 6,400 / 6,600

The PSEi closed below the 6,600 level earlier last week, forming a lower low. The market also failed to stay above its 50-day moving average price and the technical indicator MACD indicates the bears have taken control. The PSEi must stay above 6,600 in the next trading sessions or else the market will retest 6,400/6,200.

TRADING PLAN

Gradually accumulate once the PSEi trades back above 6,800.

KEY DATA RELEASES

Monday, March 6, 2023
– Corporate Earnings: International Container Terminal Services, Inc. (ICT)
– Corporate Earnings: Universal Robina Corporation (URC) on Mon, 06 Mar 2023

Tuesday, March 7, 2023
– PH Consumer Price Index (CPI) Year-on-Year for February 2023 (consensus estimate: 8.9%; actual for January 2023: 8.7%);
– Corporate Earnings: DMCI Holdings, Inc. (DMC)

Wed, 08Mar2023
– Corporate Earnings: Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc. (AEV) on Wednesday, March 8, 2023;
– Corporate Earnings: Aboitiz Power Corporation (AP)
– Corporate Earnings: Union Bank of the Philippines (UBP)
– Corporate Earnings: Metro Pacific Investments Corporation (MPI)

Thursday, March 9, 2023
– PH unemployment rate for January 2023 on Thursday, March 9, 2023 (December 2022: 4.3%);
– Corporate Earnings: ACEN Corporation (ACEN)
– Corporate Earnings: San Miguel Corporation (SMC)

Friday, March 10, 2023
– US change in nonfarm payrolls for Feb2023 (consensus estimate: 215k; actual for January 2023: 517k);
– US unemployment rate for February 2023 on Friday, March 10, 2023 (consensus estimate: 3.4%; actual for January 2023: 3.4%)
– Corporate Earnings: Ayala Corporation (AC)
– Corporate Earnings: Robinsons Land Corporation (RLC)

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) fell by 1.37% week-on-week to close at 6,685.90 (-93.12 points), continuing its descent for a fourth straight week. The local bourse started the shortened trading week in the red as investors remained cautious about the BSP and the Fed’s hawkish comments, with inflation expected to remain higher for longer.

The market rebounded on Tuesday on bargain hunting as well as the strong full-year 2022 corporate earnings results. However, the benchmark index dropped for the rest of the trading week following the risk-off sentiment in US and Asian peers as investors digested the minutes of the US Fed meeting.

Top index performers were SM Investments Corporation (SM) (+2.9%), Converge (CNVRG) (+2.4%), and Union Bank of the Philippines (UBP) (+0.6%) while index laggards were Globe Telecom (GLO) (-5.9%), DMCI Holdings Inc. (DMC) (-5.5%), and GT Capital (GTCAP) (-5.1%). The index breadth was negative with three gainers versus 27 losers. The average daily turnover value was PHP 3.8 billion. Foreigners were net sellers by PHP 1.6 billion.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

We expect the market to post moderate gains given:

(i) the PSEi remaining close to oversold conditions with technical indicator Relative Strength Index at 39.89;

(ii) more corporate earnings releases; and

(iii) the anticipated oil price rollback by as much as PHP 1.30 to PHP 1.60/liter for diesel, PHP 0.80 to PHP 1.00/liter for gasoline, and PHP 1.50 to PHP 1.80/liter for kerosene.

However, gains may be capped as investors may price in the possibility of more aggressive rate hikes from the Fed. Trading activity is expected to pick up as a result of the February MSCI semi-annual rebalancing changes effective at the close of February 28, 2023, when Globe Telecom, Inc. (GLO) and ACEN Corp. (ACEN) will be removed.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Robinsons Retail Holdings, Inc. (RRHI) — BUY ON BREAKOUT

We believe that a break above PHP 60.00 may indicate a more sustainable upside. Since the beginning of the year, key developments include: (i) RRHI’s acquisition of a 4.4% equity interest stake in Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) under a Share Purchase Agreement dated January 5, 2023 (ii) reported 2022 attributable net income at PHP 5.74 billion (+26.7% year-on-year); excluding non-core items, core earnings surged 39.1% y-o-y to PHP 5.29 billion.

Moving forward, the management shared a more aggressive expansion outlook at 180 to 200 net store additions and PHP 5-7 billion capital expenditure this year (2022: PHP 4.7 billion). Accumulating once RRHI breaks above PHP 60.00 is advisable. Set stop limit orders below PHP 57.00. Take profit at around PHP 67.00-PHP 68.00, PHP 70 for long-term investors.

Alliance Global Group, Inc. (AGI) — BUY ON BREAKOUT

Year-to-date, AGI’s share price has rallied by as much as 10% to as high as PHP 13.10 but has failed to break above its 2022 high of PHP 13.30. For the rally to be sustained, AGI’s share price must break above PHP 13.30. and stay above PHP 12.00 to avoid forming a lower low. As for valuation, AGI is currently trading at 6.10x Forward 12 months (F12) price-to-earnings per share ratio (P/E) and 0.51x F12 price-to-book value per share ratio (P/B), which is undemanding compared to local peer averages of 12.47x and 0.95x, respectively. Accumulating once AGI breaks above PHP 13.30 is advisable. Set cut loss below PHP 12.40. Take profits at around PHP 15.15 to PHP 16.00.

Cemex Holdings Philippines, Inc. (CHP) — SELL ON BREAKDOWN

Cemex Holdings Philippines, Inc. (CHP) ended the full year 2022 with a net loss of PHP 1.0 billion (from full year 2021’s net income of PHP 726 million). It was below consensus estimates, mainly driven by lower EBITDA and foreign exchange losses. CHP’s full-year 2022 net sales of PHP 20.6 billion were down 2% y-o-y amid subdued cement demand due to weak private construction activities. CHP’s domestic cement volume fell by 10% y-o-y, while domestic cement prices went up by 9% y-o-y, due to price increases implemented to offset input cost inflation.

For 2023, CHP is guiding for a flat to low-single-digit percentage decrease in its domestic cement sales volume. CHP added that it still expects challenging market conditions and high inflation through the first half of 2023 but expects to see the benefits of cost-reduction efforts as the year progresses. As for its tender offer, CHP disclosed last January 25, 2023, that its parent company, Cemex Asian South East Corp., will conduct a voluntary tender offer for up to 1.61 billion outstanding common shares at a price of PHP 1.30 per share from February 16, 2023, to March 16, 2023.

If the tender offer is fully subscribed, CHP’s free float will be reduced from 21.96% to 10%. Though this is still within the current minimum free float level for listed companies, this is considered to be relatively illiquid, which means technical patterns or rallies formed may be unsustainable given the lack of volume. Set stop limit orders below PHP 1.15. The next support levels are PHP 1.00/PHP 0.90.

PSEi TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Resistance: 6,800 / 7,150

Support: 6,600

The PSEi closed below the 6,700 level, forming a lower low. The market also failed to stay above its 100-day moving average price (MA) and the technical indicator MACD suggests the bears have taken control. The PSEi must stay above 6,600 or else the market will likely retest 6,400/6,200.

TRADING PLAN

Gradually accumulate if the PSEi trades back above 6,800 this week. Set stop limit orders below 6,600.

KEY DATA RELEASES

Monday, February 27, 2023
– Corporate Earnings: Manila Electric Co. (MER)

Tuesday, February 28, 2023
– PH Budget Balance for December 2022 (November 2022: -123.9 billion);
– Bank Lending year-on-year for January 2023 (December 2022: 13.1%);
– Corporate Earnings: SM Investments Corp. (SM);
– Corporate Earnings: Semirara Mining and Power Corp. (SCC)

Wednesday, March 1, 2023
– PH S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February 2023 (January 2023: 53.5);
– US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February 2023

Thursday, March 2, 2023
– US Initial Jobless Claims as of February 24, 2023

Friday, March 3, 2023
– BDO Unibank, Inc. (BDO) on Friday, March 3, 2023.

Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. (Metrobank) continued to deliver strong results as it ends 2022 with a 48% year-on-year increase in net income to PHP 32.8 billion on the back of better corporate and consumer lending businesses, healthy fee income, subdued operating expense growth and lower provisions on stable asset quality.

For the October to December period alone, the Bank’s earnings rose to PHP 9.3 billion, a 55% increase from a year ago. With the Bank’s strong capital base and higher profitability, the Board of Directors approved a total cash dividend of PHP 3.00 per share for the year.

The regular dividend of PHP 1.60 per share will be paid out on a semi-annual basis at PHP 0.80 per share. On top of this, a special cash dividend of PHP 1.40 per share was also declared.

“Backed by the strategies we initiated during the pandemic, our solid performance, and the recognitions we received in 2022 reflect our efforts to support our clients’ growing needs as the economy reopens. With our strong balance sheet and highly capable team of Metrobankers, we stand ready to continue to be the trusted partner of all our stakeholders for the long term,” said Metrobank President Fabian S. Dee.

The Bank’s net interest income jumped by 14% fueled by higher loan demand and better net interest margin of 3.6%. Gross loans expanded by 14% year-on-year, supported by a 15% growth in corporate and commercial loans as businesses started to build their inventories and resumed their investment spending.

Likewise, net credit card loans increased by 29%, leading the recovery in consumer lending. Total deposits grew by 15% from the previous year to PHP 2.2 trillion with low-cost current and savings accounts (CASA) stable at PHP 1.5 trillion.

Meanwhile, the Bank’s modest growth in non-interest income was supported by an 11% increase to PHP 23.5 billion in fees and other income. Operating expense growth was controlled at just 3% to PHP 61.0 billion, bringing down the cost-to-income ratio to 54% from 59% in 2021. This helped drive the 24% rise in pre-provision operating profit to PHP 52.0 billion in 2022.

The Bank’s non-performing loans (NPLs) ratio eased to 1.9% from 2.2% in 2021 and better than the industry’s 3.3%. Moreover, its NPL cover remained substantial at 172.4%, reflecting strong ability to cover any potential risks to portfolio health.

Metrobank ends 2022 with total consolidated assets of PHP 2.8 trillion, maintaining its status as the country’s second largest private universal bank. Total equity stood at PHP 318.5 billion. The Bank’s capital ratios remain to be one of the highest in the industry, with capital adequacy ratio at 17.7% and Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio at 16.8%, all well-above the minimum regulatory requirements.

The Bank brought home major accolades from top financial publications in 2022. Metrobank was named as the country’s Bank of the Year by The Banker; received back-to-back awards from the Asian Banker as the Strongest Bank in the Philippines; recognized as the Best Bank in the country by Euromoney; and was awarded Best Corporate Bank and Best Domestic Private Bank by Asiamoney.

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) declined by 1.42% week-on-week to end at 6,779.02 (-97.77 points), its lowest level in more than a month. Investors turned cautious amid the following situations: (i) escalating geopolitical risk as the Philippines filed a diplomatic protest against China on its use of a military grade laser toward a domestic vessel in the West Philippine Sea; (ii) the Bangko ng Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) announcement of a 50-basis-point rate hike and the possibility of 25 or 50 bps for the next meeting on March 23, 2023; (iii) the BSP’s adjusted inflation forecast this year to 6.1% from 4.5%, and the forecast for 2024 from to 3.1% from 2.8%; (iv) weaker US and peer region markets after the US Producer Price Index (PPI) exceeded estimates; and lastly, (v) the possibility of a 50-bp rate hike based on comments from US Fed officials Loretta Mester and James Bullard.

OFW remittances data for December 2022 supported the market last week. The actual increase was 5.8% year-on-year, exceeding estimates of 3.8%.

Top index performers were Aboitiz Power Corp. (AP) (+2.0%), Globe Telecom (GLO) (+1.2%), and LT Group Inc. (LTG) (+1.0%). Index laggards were Converge (CNVRG) (-4.7%), Ayala Corp. (AC) (-7.6%), and Aboitiz Equity Ventures Inc. (AEV) (-4.2%). The index breadth was negative with eight gainers versus 21 losers. The average daily turnover value was PHP 5.3 billion. Foreigners were net sellers by PHP 1.2 billion.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

We expect the market to trade sideways with a slight downward bias as investors wait for market catalysts and PSEi earnings results.

Local fuel prices are expected to increase by about PHP 0.70 to PHP 1.0 per liter of diesel, PHP 0.60 to PHP 0.90 per liter of gasoline, and PHP 2.20 to PHP 2.50 per liter of kerosene. On the international front, the US will have a shortened trading week as markets remain closed on the Monday session for the Presidents’ day today.

We also expect the market to take its cue from the slew of major international data releases next week, including the US S&P global manufacturing Purchasing Mangers’ Index (PMI), existing home sales, initial jobless claims, and Personal Consumption Expenditure quarter-on-quarter.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Century Pacific Food, Inc. (CNPF) — BUY

We like CNPF because of the following: (i) its diversified product portfolio that is well positioned to capture changing consumer preferences and weather macroeconomic headwinds; (ii) its pricing power that can partially cushion cost pressures; (iii) its Original Equipment Manufacturing export business that mitigates weak local currency impact; and (iv) robust operating cash flows and strong balance sheet.

Accumulating after CNPF breaks above PHP 25.00 is advisable. Set stop limit orders below PHP 23.75 and take profit at PHP 27.50/PHP 28.00, or PHP 29.00 for long-term investors.

Raslag Corp. (ASLAG) — BUY ON BREAKOUT

We believe that a break above PHP 1.82 will result in the stock retesting PHP 2.00. Looking at fundamentals, to date, ASLAG has three operating solar power plants with a total installed capacity of 41 megawatts (MW), namely, 10 MW RASLAG-1, 13 MW RASLAG-2, and 18 MW RASLAG-3, giving RASLAG cash flow visibility in the next 13 years.

The electricity generated by RASLAG-1 and RASLAG-2 are supplied to the National Transmission Corp. (TransCo), contributing an average of PHP 100 million annually. Moreover, RASLAG-3 was commissioned in July 2022 and is selling electricity to the wholesale electricity spot market (WESM), thus, taking advantage of the elevated spot market prices.

RASLAG-3 is expected to contribute PHP 71.6 million /PHP 142. 9 million in FY22/ FY23 at an average WESM Settlement Price of PHP 5.30/kWh. Other solar power plants of ASLAG are in various stages of development, including the 35 MW RASLAG-4, 60 MW RASLAG-5, and RASLAG-6.

As a pure-play solar power company, ASLAG’s location in Central Luzon receives high irradiation level, hence, a strategic and ideal site for solar power plant developments. Accumulating once ASLAG breaks above PHP 1.82 is advisable. Set stop limit orders below PHP 1.74.

East West Banking Corp. (EW) — BUY ON BREAKOUT

Currently, EW is consolidating between PHP 7.20 and its recent high of PHP 7.70. We believe that a break above PHP 7.70 would propel EW back to PHP 8.50 and PHP 9.00. As for company guidance ahead of the 2022 earnings results, EW expects its net income for 2022 to reach PHP 4.5 billion. EW added that while income levels are expected to be flattish, the bottomline is on the uptrend as the bank started to recover lost loan volumes and rebuilt its fixed income portfolios. Accumulating once EW breaks above PHP 7.70 is advisable. Set stop limit orders below PHP 7.30 and take profits at around PHP 8.50/PHP 9.00.

PSEi TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Resistance: 6,800 / 7,150

Support: 6,600

The PSEi has ended in the red week-on-week for the third straight week and closed below its support level of 6,800. The technical indicator MACD confirms the bearish momentum. We think that PSEi must stay above 6,740 to avoid a lower low. Thereafter, the PSEi has to break above 7,150 to create a higher high to sustain the ongoing short-term uptrend.

TRADING PLAN

Gradually accumulate once the PSEi trades back above 6,800 this week. Set stop limit orders below 6,600.

KEY DATA RELEASES

Monday, February 20, 2023
– Overall Balance of Payments Position for January 2023

Tuesday, February 21, 2023
– US S&P Global preliminary manufacturing PMI for February 2023 (consensus estimate: 47.0; actual for January 2023: 46.9)
– US Existing Home Sales for January 2023 (consensus estimate: 4.11 million; actual for November 2022: 4.02 million)
– Corporate Earnings: Ayala Land Inc. (ALI)

Thursday, February 24, 2023
– US GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter for 4Q 2022 (consensus estimate: 2.9%; actual for 3Q 2022: 2.9%)
– US Initial Jobless Claims as of February 18, 2023 (prior: 194k)
– US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) quarter-on-quarter for 4Q 2022 (3Q 2022: 3.9%)

Friday, February 25, 2023
– Corporate Earnings: WLCON

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended 2.14% lower week-on-week to 6,876.79 (-150.59 points). The market opened in the red following the rebalancing activity on Friday, February 3, 2023, as investors priced in the hotter-than-expected January 2023 local inflation print at 8.7% (consensus estimate is 7.6%, while the BSP forecast is 7.5-8.3%).

Investors also weighed the hawkish comments from US Fed officials; NY Fed President John Williams said that looser financial conditions, or conditions that are much more supportive of growth, might imply a higher interest rate.

At the latter part of the week, investors digested the results of the MSCI quarterly rebalancing, where the Philippines got a slight downweight. Key changes in the recent MSCI quarterly rebalancing include the deletion of Globe Telecom, Inc. (GLO) and ACEN Corp. (ACEN) as well as the substantial upweight of Manila Electric Co. (MER).

Top index performers were Metro Pacific Investments Corporation (MPI) (+6.3%), Meralco (MER) (+5.4%), and Alliance Global Group Inc. (AGI) (+2.8%), while index laggards were Union Bank of the Philippines (UBP) (-8.3%), Monde Nissin (MONDE) (-7.8%), and San Miguel Corporation (SMC) (-7.7%). The index breadth was negative, with 12 gainers versus 18 losers. The average daily turnover value was PHP 5.5 billion. Foreigners were net sellers by PHP 1.8 billion.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

We expect a volatile market that will be skewed towards the downside as investors await the much-anticipated policy rate decision of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), especially following the surge in the January 2023 inflation print. On the international front, investors may also take their cue from the US inflation print in the same period.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Nickel Asia Corp. (NIKL) — BUY ON BREAKOUT

The recent price action of NIKL shows that the bias remains to be upwards, given that it formed a higher low and bounced above its key support level of PHP 6.30. The technical indicator MACD (moving average convergence divergence) confirms the bullish momentum. We believe that NIKL must break above PHP 7.50 to resume its trend.

Looking at the fundamentals, we reiterate that the growth in stainless steel production and the incentives and penalty programs imposed by the European and US governments continue to drive adoption rates for electric vehicles. Nickel prices can also remain elevated given the proposal by the Indonesian government to impose a progressive levy on the export of nickel pig iron and ferronickel.

Moreover, NIKL’s foray into the renewable energy generation business is a long-term catalyst amid the tight power supply in the country. Accumulate once NIKL breaks above PHP 7.50. Set stop limit orders below PHP 7.00 and take profits at around PHP 8.50/PHP 9.50.

AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp. (ALLHC) — BUY ON BREAKOUT

Despite the recent rally, ALLHC’s share price failed to surge past or even retest its immediate resistance level at PHP 3.45. While technical indicators confirm a bullish momentum, we believe that it is important for ALLHC to surge past PHP 3.45 for the rally to be sustainable.

As for the company’s growth prospects, with the local economy further re-opening, the resumption of public construction should hasten the development outside Metro Manila. Accumulating once ALLHC breaks above PHP 3.45 is advisable. Set cut loss below PHP 3.25. Take profits at around PHP 3.85/PHP 4.00.

The Keepers Holdings, Inc. (KEEPR) — BUY ON BREAKOUT

The stock broke above its short-term price resistance at PHP 1.35 in the second week of January 2023. Now, KEEPR is attempting to break above its 2022 resistance of PHP 1.53. We think that a break above PHP 1.53 will result in the stock filling its gap around PHP 1.63 as well as retest the next resistance level of PHP 1.80. Accumulating once KEEPR breaks above PHP 1.53 is advisable. Set cut loss below PHP 1.45. Take profit at around PHP 1.70/PHP 1.80.

PSEi TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Resistance: 7,150 / 7,500

Support: 6,800

The market pulled back anew but has managed to stay above 6,800. The PSEi must stay above 6,740 to avoid a lower low. Afterward, the PSEi must break above 7,150 to create a higher high for the ongoing short-term uptrend to be sustained.

TRADING PLAN

– Gradually accumulate at current levels. Set stop limit orders below 6,600.

KEY DATA RELEASES

Tuesday, February 14, 2023
– US Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-ear for January 2023 (consensus estimate is 6.2%, while the actual for December 2022 is 6.5%)

Thursday, February 16, 2023
– BSP interest rate decision (consensus estimate 25-basis-point increase)

Friday, February 17, 2023

– OF cash remittances YoY for December 2022 (consensus estimate is 4.2%; actual for November 2022 is 5.7%)

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended 0.35% lower week-on-week at 7,027.38 (-24.78 points). The market started last week in the red as investors took profit and reduced risk ahead of interest rate decisions in the US and Europe.

Investors also digested the BSP’s 7.5%-8.3% range inflation estimates for January 2023. After the 4% decline in the first two days of the trading week, the index rebounded amid the spillover of stronger sentiment from markets abroad and the huge market-on-close orders related to the PSE index rebalancing.

Top index performers were San Miguel Corporation (SMC) (+23.0%), Universal Robina Corp. (URC) (+5.1%), and Wilcon Depot Inc. (WLCON) (+3.7%), while index laggards were Semirara Mining and Power Corp. (SCC) (-11.0%), Ayala Land Inc. (ALI) (-10.6%), and Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (MPI) (-7.2%). The index breadth was negative with 13 gainers versus 17 losers. The average daily turnover value was PHP 10.6 billion. Foreigners were net buyers by PHP 534 million.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

We expect the market to trade sideways with a downward bias as investors await the following:

(i) 4Q/FY22 earnings results;

(ii) MSCI rebalancing;

(iii) local unemployment rate;

(iv) and the January 2023 inflation print (consensus estimate: 7.6%; BSP forecast: 7.5-8.3%).

According to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), the higher utility rates, oil prices, costs of food items, and uptick in excise taxes are expected to contribute to upward price pressures. Meanwhile, lower LPG prices and the peso’s appreciation may ease price pressures. Fuel price rollbacks are also anticipated next week, as gasoline prices are expected to fall by PHP 1.90 to PHP 2.00 per liter, diesel prices by PHP 2.60 to PHP 2.80 per liter, and kerosene prices to decline by PHP 2.50 per liter.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Union Bank of the Philippines (UBP) — HOLD/SET TRAILING STOPS

The recent rally in anticipation of its inclusion to the PSEi resulted in the stock hitting its 11-month high. Those who have not sold yet can continue to hold and ride the uptrend. We recommend setting trailing stops around the 8-day (~PHP 94.00) /9-day EMA (~PHP 93.00) to protect gains. The next support levels are PHP 90.00/PHP 86.00.​

Vista Land & Lifescapes, Inc. (VLL) — BUY ON BREAKOUT     

The stock is now trading above its key 50-day and 100-day moving averages (MA) and is now looking to stay above the 200-day MA, its first time since December 2021. Technical indicator MACD confirms the bullish momentum. A break above PHP 2.00 could result in the stock retesting PHP 2.30/PHP 2.40. Accumulating once VLL breaks above PHP 2.00 is advisable. Set stop loss orders below PHP 1.85. Take profit at around PHP 2.30 / PHP 2.40.

Robinsons Land Corp. (RLC) — BUY

RLC will be excluded from the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) effective today (February 6, 2023), in line with our expectations. Since 2019, on average, the one-month share price performance of those getting deleted in the PSEi rallies by 12% after the announcement date. Investors and bargain hunters are recommended to buy the expected dip today as the stock might face selling pressure on close. After which, set stop limit orders at 5-7% below average cost and set the take-profit level at least 12-15% above the average cost.

PSEI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Resistance: 7,500

Support: 6,800 / 7,000

The 6,800 level proved to be a support area last week as the market managed to bounce from the said level and closed the week at above 7,000. The shallow and quick pullbacks confirm that the bulls remain in control. Accumulating on pullbacks is the optimal strategy.

TRADING PLAN

Continue to hold and accumulate more once the market pulls back to 6,800-6,900. Set stop limit orders below 6,600.

KEY DATA RELEASES

Monday, February 6, 2023
– Corporate Earnings: Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI)

Tuesday, February 7, 2023
– PH Consumer Price Index (CPI) Year-on-Year for January 2023 (consensus estimate: 7.6%; actual for December 2022: 8.1%)

Wednesday, February 8, 2023
– PH unemployment rate for December 2022 (November 2022: 4.2%)

Thursday, February 9, 2023
– Corporate Earnings: Globe Telecom (GLO)

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) snapped its five-week winning streak after dropping by 0.06% week-on-week to close at 7,052.16 (-4.46 points). The local bellwether started the week on a positive note after huge market-on-close buy flows and foreign buying.

Gains were reversed on Tuesday as profit-taking ensued, but quickly recovered on Wednesday ahead of local GDP data. On Thursday, the index fell despite the higher-than-expected 7.2% 4Q 2022 GDP (consensus estimate: 6.8%), bringing the full-year 2022 growth at 7.6%, its best since 1976. On Friday, it inched up higher as investors cheered the better-than-expected US 4Q 2022 GDP of 2.9% (consensus estimate: 2.7%).

Top index performers were Robinsons Land Corporation (RLC) (+9.7%), AC Energy (ACEN) (+6.2%), and GT Capital (GTCAP) (+5.9%), while index laggards were Wilcon Depot Inc. (WLCON) (-7.5%), Monde Nissin (MONDE) (-4.9%), and Puregold Price Club Inc. (PGOLD) (-3.3%). The index breadth was positive with 17 gainers versus 13 losers. The average daily turnover value was PHP 4.8 billion. Foreigners were net buyers by PHP 1.8 billion.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

We expect the market to trade sideways with a downward bias given the portfolio realignment of index tracking funds ahead of PSEi rebalancing and the anticipated oil price hike by as much as PHP 0.80-PHP 1.00/liter on diesel and PHP 1.20-PHP 1.40/liter on gasoline.

On the international front, investors will be on the lookout for the interest rate decision of the US Fed (consensus estimate: +25 basis points, or bps) amid signs of slowing inflation. The smaller rate hike by the Fed may lift hopes for a soft landing in the US, hence, boosting market sentiment.

Investors will also await more earnings releases from the US as well as from local companies this week. Trading activity is expected to pick up at the latter part of the week ahead of the effectivity of the PSEi rebalancing on February 6, 2023, where UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP) and DMCI Holdings, Inc. (DMC) will replace Megaworld Corp. (MEG) and Robinsons Land Corp. (RLC).

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Jollibee Foods Corp. (JFC) — BUY ON BREAKOUT

JFC formed a continuation diamond, a long-term bullish continuation pattern. When the price breaks upward out of the diamond’s boundary lines, it marks the resumption of the prior uptrend.

The measured price target after JFC broke out of the continuation diamond pattern is from PHP 306.00 to PHP 320.00, according to Technical Insight, our automated chart pattern recognition program. Accumulating once JFC breaks above PHP 260.00 is advisable. Set stop limit orders below PHP 240.00. Take profit at around PHP 306.00 to PHP 320.00.

SM Investments Corp. (SM) — BUY ON BREAKOUT

SM Investments Corp. (SM) formed a pennant, a short-term bullish continuation pattern. The measured price target after SM breaks out of its bullish pennant is PHP 1,045.00 to PHP 1,074.00, according to Technical Insight, our automated chart pattern recognition program. Accumulating once SM breaks above PHP 950.00 is advisable. Set stop loss orders below PHP 900.00. Take profit at around PHP 1,050.00 to PHP 1,074.00.

DoubleDragon Properties Corp. (DD) — BUY ON BREAKOUT

The stock broke above its short-term downtrend line in the first week of January 2023. Now, DD is consolidating and is looking to break above its three-month resistance of PHP 7.45. We are of the view that a break above PHP 7.45 will result in a retest of PHP 8.30/PHP 9.00.

As for company outlook, DD is optimistic this year as its Hotel101 overseas will start to generate dollar revenues. Moreover, management mentioned that Hotel101 Global aims to become one of the top 10 largest hotel brands in the world with a portfolio of over 200,000 hotel rooms by 2035.

These will be developed through direct investments, joint ventures with local companies in other countries, and through brand and concept licensing arrangements. Accumulating once DD breaks above PHP 7.45 is advisable. Set stop loss orders below PHP 7.10. Take profit at around PHP 8.30/PHP 9.00.

PSEi TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Resistance: 7,500

Support: 6,800 / 7,000

While the PSEi broke its five-week winning streak, the recent pullbacks remain to be shallow, further signaling that the bulls are in control. Foreign buying is still strong. The technical indicator MACD (moving average convergence divergence) confirms the bullish momentum, with the MACD line hovering above both the signal and zero lines.

TRADING PLAN

Continue to hold, accumulate more once the market pulls back to 6,800. Stop limit orders below 6,500.

KEY DATA RELEASES

Wednesday, February 1, 2023
– PH S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) for January 2023 (December 2022: 53.1)

Thursday, February 2, 2023
– US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) interest rate decision (consensus estimate: 25-bp rate increase)

Friday, February 3, 2023
– US change in nonfarm payrolls for January 2023 (consensus estimate: 175k; actual for December 2022: 223k)
– US unemployment rate for January 2023 (consensus estimate: 3.6%; actual for December 2022: 3.5%)

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) rose by 1.5% eek-on-week to close at 7,056.62 (+105.08 points). The benchmark index closed at the 7,000 level on Monday, its first occurrence since April 25, 2022, buoyed by positive sentiment from markets abroad and seven straight sessions of foreign buying.

Investors also factored in the OFW cash remittances for November 2022 which beat estimates at USD 2.93 billion (+5.8% year-on-year versus the consensus estimate of 4.2%), bringing 11-month 2022 remittances to USD 32.65 billion (+3.4% y-o-y). At the latter part of the week, traders took some profit because of market overbought levels and slowdown concerns due to lower-than-expected US retail sales.

Top index performers were GT Capital (GTCAP) (+6.9%), Wilcon Depot Inc. (WLCON) (+6.1%), and Ayala Land Inc. (ALI) (+5.3%), while index laggards were Meralco (MER) (-5.9%), Universal Robina Corp. (URC) (-5.2%), and JG Summit (JGS) (-2.5%). The index breadth was positive with 17 gainers versus 12 losers. The average daily turnover value was PHP 7.1 billion. Foreigners were net buyers by PHP 4.5 billion.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

We expect the market to trade sideways as investors closely watch the key economic data releases from the US: the Q4 advance estimates of US GDP and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, initial jobless claims, and new home sales.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) — BUY ON PULLBACKS

BPI broke above its three-year resistance level of PHP 100.00 and is now trading at around PHP 112.40, its highest since March 2018. Given the breakout, it is optimal to wait for the pullback before accumulating. However, the stock’s rally has been a bit sharp, with trading near overbought levels. Those with exposure who bought at our buying level may take some profits.

As for management guidance, the company expects earnings growth this year to be driven by higher revenue from continued loan growth and expansion in net interest margins, which should offset growth in operating expenses. Moreover, provisions are expected to trend closer to pre-pandemic levels. Accumulate once BPI pulls back to PHP 108.00/ PHP 106.00. Set cut loss below PHP 99.00 and take profit at PHP 120.00.

DMCI Holdings, Inc. (DMC) — SET TRAILING STOPS

DMCI’s recent rally was likely driven by the company’s expected addition to the PSEi by February 2023. Given that DMC has rallied by 37% since November 2022, profit taking can quickly occur especially with the stock now trading at overbought levels. Note that since 2019, the share price of those added to the PSEi drops at an average of 7% one month after the announcement date.

Suggested profit taking levels are at around the 8- or 9-day Exponential Moving Average Price (EMA). Since EMAs are fast moving and volatile, we recommend setting trailing stops in line with the value of the EMA on the date of the planned day of profit taking. Looking at company guidance, for SCC, despite the risk that coal prices could decline in 2023 on global recession concerns, management expects the Newcastle Coal Index (NEWC) to average USD 360 per metric ton in 2023, just 1% lower as compared to the average price in the first nine months of 2022. For Maynilad, the completion of the rate rebasing exercise and the approval of the tariff adjustments raise the company’s earnings visibility going forward and eases regulatory concerns. For DMCI Power, the additional capacity in Masbate is expected to boost the segment’s contribution to the group. Set trailing stops at around the 8- or 9-day EMA. The next support levels are at PHP 12.00/PHP 10.80.

Century Pacific Food Inc. (CNPF) — BUY ON BREAKOUT

CNPF’s share price broke out of a symmetrical triangle, an intermediate-term bullish pattern. The measured price target after CNPF broke out if its symmetrical continuation triangle is PHP 27.00 to PHP 27.50. according to Technical Insight, our automated chart pattern recognition program. Regarding fundamentals, we like CNPF because of the following: (i) its diversified product portfolio that is well positioned to capture changing consumer preferences and weather macroeconomic headwinds; (ii) its pricing power that can partially cushion cost pressures; (iii) its OEM export business that mitigates the impact of the weak local currency;

and (iv) robust operating cash flows and strong balance sheet.

Accumulating once CNPF breaks above PHP 25.00 is advisable. Set stop limit orders below PHP 23.75 and take profit at PHP 27.50/PHP 28.00. For long-term investors, our target price for CNPF is PHP 29.00.

PSEi TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Resistance: 7,500

Support: 6,800 / 7,000

SUPPORT: 6,800/7,000 RESISTANCE: 7,500

The PSEi rallied for the fifth straight week, complemented by strong volume and net foreign buying. The pullbacks during the latter part of the week have also been shallow, further signaling that the bulls are in control. MACD confirms the bullish momentum with the MACD hovering above both the signal and zero lines.

TRADING PLAN

Continue to hold, accumulate more once the market pulls back to 6,800. Stop Limit orders below 6,500

KEY DATA RELEASES

The key data releases this week are:

Tuesday, January 24, 2023
– US S&P Global preliminary manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for January 2023 (consensus estimate is 45.0; actual for December 2022: 44.7)

Thursday, January 26, 2023
– PH GDP YoY for 4Q 2022 (consensus estimate: 6.8%; actual for 3Q 2022: 7.6%);
– PH exports YoY for December 2022 (consensus estimate: 8.8%; actual for 3Q 2022: 13.2%);
– PH imports YoY for December 2022 (consensus estimate: -6.0%; actual for 3Q 2022: -1.9%);
– US New Home Sales for December 2022 (consensus estimate: 610K; actual for November 2022: 640k):
– US GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter for 4Q 2022 (consensus estimate: 2.7%; actual for 3Q 2022: 3.2%); and
– US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) QoQ for 4Q 2022 (consensus estimate: 3.9%; actual for 3Q 2022: 4.7%)