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Archives: CreditSights Issuer List
Security Bank (PH)
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Country: Philippines
- Bond: SECBPM 5.5 29
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.694%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 18 Nov 2025Security Bank has historically been a wholesale focused bank. Rapid retail expansion pre-pandemic led to a large asset quality hit when COVID-19 struck. The bank completed revamping its underwriting processes at end-2021 and has resumed brisk growth in the retail book since.
The bank had a less well-established deposit franchise than most peers, resulting in a heavy hit to NIMs when rates rose this cycle. This has led it to focus aggressively on growing the higher yielding retail and MSME segments, the latter via forming a new business banking segment in 2022.
Previously high capital ratios have hence fallen; the CET1 ratio is a low 12-13%.
MUFG is a 20% shareholder of Security Bank.
Business Description
AS OF 18 Nov 2025- Security Bank was established in 1951 and obtained its universal banking license from the BSP in 1994. It is today the 9th largest bank in the Philippines.
- The bank is majority-owned by longtime owner Frederick Y. Dy (23.7%) and MUFG Bank (20%), which acquired its stake in April 2016.
- SB Finance, a joint venture between Security Bank and Thailand's Bank of Ayudhya (Krungsri), a consolidated subsidiary of MUFG, was launched in 2019. The unit is a consumer finance company formed to engage in the unsecured loans business in the Philippines, focusing on the lower mass retail segment.
- Security Bank's loan portfolio is 32% consumer, 4% MSME, 29% middle market and 35% corporate at 2Q25. The consumer and MSME book comprises mortgages (44%), auto loans (23%), credit card (23%) and small business loans (10%).
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 18 Nov 2025Any rating downgrade of the Philippine sovereign would have a negative impact on Security Bank.
RRR cuts and rates coming down, along with brisk growth in higher yielding but riskier retail and MSME (business banking), are supporting the NIM well. Asset quality indicators however have unsurprisingly started to weaken with a jump in credit costs. We remain cautious given the relatively thin reserve cover and capital buffer. Management is now exercising some prudence in retail loan growth after the emergence of stress in credit cards.
Capital ratios have fallen due to brisk RWA growth and now trail peers. We view current levels as low, but do not rule out capital support from MUFG if needed.
A prolonged hit to sentiment from the flood controls scandal would exacerbate the slowdown in GDP and credit growth, and pressure asset quality.
Key Metric
AS OF 18 Nov 2025| PHP mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 9M25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Margin | 4.43% | 4.23% | 4.49% | 4.73% | 4.70% |
| ROA | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| ROE | 5.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% |
| PPP ROA | 2.30% | 2.17% | 1.97% | 2.18% | 2.40% |
| CET1 Ratio | 19.1% | 16.1% | 15.3% | 12.9% | 12.7% |
| Total Equity/Total Assets | 17.88% | 14.94% | 15.62% | 12.50% | 13.41% |
| Gross NPL Ratio | 3.94% | 2.95% | 3.36% | 2.85% | 3.02% |
| Net LDR | 85.7% | 83.0% | 88.8% | 84.6% | 74.6% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 150% | 144% | 158% | 178% | 189% |
| Net Stable Funding Ratio | 138% | 122% | 131% | 130% | 143% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 19 Nov 2025Security Bank has historically been a wholesale focused bank. Rapid retail expansion leading up to the pandemic led to a large asset quality fallout. It has since resumed aggressive growth in higher yielding but riskier retail and MSME segments to counter NIM pressure. This along with improving funding costs from a declining rate environment has supported the NIM. Asset quality however is showing strains from the brisk growth in riskier segments as we had anticipated, leading it to start exercising some prudence in retail loan growth. We remain cautious about the asset quality implications given the relatively thin reserve cover and capital buffer (~12-13% CET1 ratio). We have an Underperform recommendation.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 19, 2025
Recommendation Changed: May 21, 2024
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Fundamental View
AS OF 18 Nov 2025We expect PT Mineral Industri Indonesia’s (MIND ID) strategic importance and policy role to the Government of Indonesia (GoI) to strengthen in line with the GoI’s downstream push and green energy transition efforts.
We expect MIND ID’s credit metrics to improve modestly in FY26 as healthy commodity prices (barring coal and nickel), capacity additions, and healthy dividend income from key joint venture PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) could offset high capex.
Mining regulatory risk remains a concern, though MIND ID’s large diversified scale of operations could partly limit such risks.
We are watchful of dividend upstreaming risks to Indonesia’s new sovereign wealth fund Danantara.
Business Description
AS OF 18 Nov 2025- MIND ID is an unlisted Indonesian state-owned holding company of various Indonesian mining operators.
- Key subsidiaries include: 1) Bukit Asam: Coal mining, processing, and sale of coal; 2) Timah: Tin mining, processing, and sale of downstream products; 3) Aneka Tambang (Antam): Mining, processing, and sale of gold products, nickel, ferronickel, bauxite and chemical grade alumina; 4) Inalum: Production of aluminium.
- Key unconsolidated joint ventures and associates include: 1) PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI): Mining, processing and sale of copper, gold and silver. MIND ID aims to raise its stake in PTFI to 71% from a current 51% in the medium-to-long term; 2) PT Vale Indonesia (PTVI): Mining and processing of nickel. MIND ID has a current 34% stake in PTVI.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 18 Nov 2025MIND ID is subjected to unanticipated changes in mining policies that raise operational and regulatory uncertainties.
MIND ID is exposed to commodity price fluctuations that could hurt sales price realizations and profitability.
Capex typically remains elevated, pressurizing its free cash flow generation and leverage.
MIND ID faces material asset concentration risk for its coal, gold and tin segments.
We are watchful of dividend upstreaming risks to Indonesia’s new sovereign wealth fund Danantara.
Key Metric
AS OF 18 Nov 2025| IDR bn | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 1H24 | 1H25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 44.6% | 41.6% | 35.7% | 42.8% | 33.9% |
| Net Debt to Book Cap | 27.1% | 24.5% | 21.8% | 24.3% | 21.5% |
| Debt/Total Equity | 80.5% | 71.2% | 55.5% | 75.0% | 51.3% |
| Debt/Total Assets | 38.7% | 35.6% | 30.4% | 35.8% | 27.1% |
| Gross Leverage | 3.5x | 7.0x | 5.7x | 8.9x | 4.0x |
| Net Leverage | 2.1x | 4.1x | 3.5x | 5.0x | 2.5x |
| Interest Coverage | 3.9x | 2.2x | 2.3x | 1.9x | 3.1x |
| EBITDA Margin | 19.9% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 11.1% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 18 Nov 2025We upgrade our rec on MIND ID to M/P from U/P, and prefer the 2048 within its bond complex. Since our U/P rec in Mar-2025, IDASAL’s bond spread differentials with Pertamina and PLN have widened close to where we see fair value. We see a modestly improving credit outlook over the next 12 months as strong gold and aluminium prices, new project contributions, and sturdy dividend income from jv PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) could offset rising downstream capex. We also view state support for IDASAL as gradually strengthening, given Danantara’s focus on mining as a priority industry. Key risks we are watchful of include overly aggressive capex and dividend payouts to Danantara, unanticipated unfavorable mining regulatory changes, and reduced dividends from PTFI.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 18, 2025
Recommendation Changed: August 28, 2025
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Globe Telecom
- Sector: TechnologyTechnology Media and Telecommunications
- Sub Sector: Telecommunications
- Country: Philippines
- Bond: GLOPM 3 35
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.95%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 18 Nov 2025Globe’s 1H25 results were poorer than expected, but we believe credit metrics may improve modestly through 2H25 from modest EBITDA growth, lower YoY capex, and residual tower sales closures.
While we acknowledge the stiff competitive pressures brought about by new entrant DITO, the impact is mitigated by Globe’s still-dominant mobile market position and DITO’s slowing expansion (given its weak financials and the costly capex involved).
Weakness in the broadband business has lessened since 3Q24 and could stabilize by end-2025.
While Globe earlier raised the upper end of its dividend policy, we expect dividend payouts to remain stable.
Business Description
AS OF 18 Nov 2025- Globe is a leading telecom operator in the Philippines, competing alongside its main rival PLDT in a duopoly setting.
- Globe provides 2G/3G/4G mobile, fixed-line, broadband, enterprise data, and other digital services to retail and corporate customers.
- Globe operates through 2 main business segments – “Mobile Services” and “Fixed Line and Home Broadband Services”.
- Its “Mobile Services” segment offers mobile voice, mobile SMS and mobile data services to retail customers in the Philippines. These services are marketed under the “Globe Postpaid”, “Globe Prepaid” and “TM” brands.
- Its “Fixed Line and Home Broadband Services” segment provides fixed line voice, corporate data and home broadband services to retail and corporate customers in the Philippines.
- Globe commercially launched 5G services on a small-scale basis in Jun-2019. It currently maintains 5G coverage of 96% of the National Capital Region, with over 2,000 5G sites nationwide.
- Globe maintains dominant market shares in the mobile data, voice and SMS space (FY22 revenue market share [RMS] of 52% vs PLDT 40%), but loses out to PLDT in the home broadband space (FY22 RMS of 28%-30% vs PLDT 48%-50%).
- Globe is largely owned by two established corporate groups – Ayala Corporation (~47 stake) and Singtel (~43% stake).
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 18 Nov 2025Globe faces mounting competitive pressures from new mobile entrant DITO and incumbent broadband competitor PLDT.
Aggressive expansion by new entrant DITO over the next 2-4 years could chew away at Globe’s market share and restrain recoveries in average revenues per user (ARPU).
Globe incurs heavy capex that has pressurized its leverage metrics and free cash flows. That said, capex had peaked in FY23 and should meaningfully decline ahead.
Consistent dividend payouts could weigh on Globe’s free cash flows; Globe recently raised the upper end of its dividend policy from 75% to 90% of net income, suggesting an increased skew to shareholder-friendly actions.
Key Metric
AS OF 18 Nov 2025| PHP bn | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 3Q24 | 3Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 67.5% | 69.7% | 70.2% | 69.5% | 70.2% |
| Net Debt to Book Cap | 63.7% | 66.6% | 66.4% | 65.4% | 65.4% |
| Debt/Total Equity | 208.1% | 230.5% | 235.8% | 227.4% | 235.4% |
| Debt/Total Assets | 57.1% | 60.3% | 62.4% | 61.1% | 62.5% |
| Gross Leverage | 3.9x | 4.3x | 4.4x | 4.3x | 4.6x |
| Net Leverage | 3.7x | 4.1x | 4.2x | 4.1x | 4.3x |
| Interest Coverage | 5.9x | 4.6x | 4.3x | 4.3x | 4.1x |
| EBITDA Margin | 46.7% | 47.7% | 49.7% | 49.0% | 51.3% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 18 Nov 2025We have a Market perform recommendation on Globe with a preference for its c.2026 perp. Globe 2030 trades slightly wider to PLDT 2031 that we view as fair. Globe c.2026 perp trades at a juicy 1.4x perp-to-Globe 2030 senior multiple that we view as attractive for short-dated “IG” paper. We anticipate a modestly improving credit outlook as lower capex and residual tower sales closures are offset by a continued weak broadband business and sticky dividends. Stiff competition in both the mobile and broadband spaces is a key concern too. Globe also recently revised its dividend policy to 60%-90% of PAT from 60%-75% previously, suggesting an increased skew towards shareholder-friendly actions, though this has not happened yet.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 18, 2025
Recommendation Changed: June 18, 2024
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Fundamental View
AS OF 17 Nov 2025While expected profit margin compression is material and Toyota management has disclosed few details of its tariff risk mitigation strategy to improve or restore profitability, the company’s competitive position remains strong with volume growth expected in each of its major markets this year. Unlike many of its peers, its EV investments have been modest to date as it has focused on hybrids and flexible plant manufacturing, which we believe should help it avoid material near-term EV investment write-offs in the US. While we expect the company’s profit margin to fall below the rating downgrade triggers in FY26, we do not expect negative rating actions in the near term as further tariff relief is likely with the renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2026.
Business Description
AS OF 17 Nov 2025- Toyota Motor Corp. (TMC) engages in the manufacture and sale of motor vehicles and parts. It operates through the following segments: Automotive, Financial Services, and All Other. The Automotive segment designs, manufactures, assembles and sells passenger cars, minivans, trucks, and related vehicle parts and accessories. Toyota is also involved in the development of intelligent transport systems. The Financial Services segment offers purchase or lease financing to Toyota vehicle dealers and customers. It also provides retail leasing through lease contracts purchased by dealers. The company was founded by Kiichiro Toyoda on August 28, 1937, and is headquartered in Toyota, Japan.
- Toyota Financial Services Corporation (TFSC), a wholly owned subsidiary of TMC, oversees the management of Toyota's finance companies worldwide. Toyota Motor Credit Corporation (TMCC) is the company’s principal financial services subsidiary in the United States. Under terms of the credit support agreement between TFSC and TMCC, TFSC agrees to: (1) maintain 100% ownership of TMCC; (2) cause TMCC and its subsidiaries to have a tangible net worth of at least $100,000; (3) make sufficient funds available to TMCC so that it will be able to service the obligations arising out of its own bonds, debentures, notes and other investment securities and commercial paper. The terms of the credit support agreement between TMC and TFSC are very similar to the terms of the TFSC and TMCC credit support agreement.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 17 Nov 2025Toyota has reaffirmed its FY2026 outlook, holding its consolidated vehicle sales target at 9.8 mn units and total revenue at ¥49.0 tn, representing YoY increases of 5% and 2%, respectively. The forecast for operating income was revised up from ¥3.2 tn last quarter to ¥3.4 tn. The revised operating income guidance represents a 29% YoY decline, reflecting the full-year impact of US tariffs totaling ¥1.45 tn, a ¥555 bn negative effect from yen appreciation, and an additional ¥470 bn in higher material costs.
Management stated these headwinds are expected to be partially offset by improvement initiatives totaling ¥910 bn, which include higher sales volume, enhanced product mix, cost reductions, and expanded value chain profit. The operating margin is projected to contract to 6.9% for FY2026, down from 10.0% in FY2025, with tariffs accounting for the largest share of the decline.
Management clarified that the tariff assumptions for FY2026 include a 25% rate on Japanese exports to the US from April through September 15, 2025, dropping to 15% for the remainder of the fiscal year, and a 25% rate on exports from Canada and Mexico for the full year.
Key Metric
AS OF 17 Nov 2025| JPY bn | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | LTM F2Q26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automotive Revenue | 28,606 | 33,777 | 41,081 | 42,996 | 44,111 |
| EBIT | 2,519 | 2,486 | 4,890 | 4,047 | 3,475 |
| EBIT Margin | 8.0% | 6.7% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 4.8% |
| EBITDA | 3,526 | 3,671 | 6,159 | 5,408 | 4,820 |
| EBITDA Margin | 11.2% | 9.9% | 13.7% | 11.3% | 7.6% |
| Total Liquidity | 15,864 | 10,090 | 12,401 | 11,595 | 11,595 |
| Net Debt | (1,719) | (2,825) | (4,025) | (3,355) | (3,355) |
| Total Debt | 2,580 | 2,724 | 2,868 | 2,736 | 2,736 |
| Gross Leverage | 0.7x | 0.7x | 0.5x | 0.5x | 0.6x |
| Net Leverage | -0.5x | -0.8x | -0.7x | -0.6x | -0.7x |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 17 Nov 2025We reiterate our Underperform recommendation on notes of Toyota Motor Co and Toyota Motor Credit Corporation based primarily on relative value, although we consider the Toyota bond complex to be a relatively safe haven for long-term investors.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 17, 2025
Recommendation Changed: May 09, 2025
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Fundamental View
AS OF 17 Nov 2025While expected profit margin compression is material and Toyota management has disclosed few details of its tariff risk mitigation strategy to improve or restore profitability, the company’s competitive position remains strong with volume growth expected in each of its major markets this year. Unlike many of its peers, its EV investments have been modest to date as it has focused on hybrids and flexible plant manufacturing, which we believe should help it avoid material near-term EV investment write-offs in the US. While we expect the company’s profit margin to fall below the rating downgrade triggers in FY26, we do not expect negative rating actions in the near term as further tariff relief is likely with the renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2026.
Business Description
AS OF 17 Nov 2025- Toyota Motor Corp. (TMC) engages in the manufacture and sale of motor vehicles and parts. It operates through the following segments: Automotive, Financial Services, and All Other. The Automotive segment designs, manufactures, assembles and sells passenger cars, minivans, trucks, and related vehicle parts and accessories. Toyota is also involved in the development of intelligent transport systems. The Financial Services segment offers purchase or lease financing to Toyota vehicle dealers and customers. It also provides retail leasing through lease contracts purchased by dealers. The company was founded by Kiichiro Toyoda on August 28, 1937, and is headquartered in Toyota, Japan.
- Toyota Financial Services Corporation (TFSC), a wholly owned subsidiary of TMC, oversees the management of Toyota's finance companies worldwide. Toyota Motor Credit Corporation (TMCC) is the company’s principal financial services subsidiary in the United States. Under terms of the credit support agreement between TFSC and TMCC, TFSC agrees to: (1) maintain 100% ownership of TMCC; (2) cause TMCC and its subsidiaries to have a tangible net worth of at least $100,000; (3) make sufficient funds available to TMCC so that it will be able to service the obligations arising out of its own bonds, debentures, notes and other investment securities and commercial paper. The terms of the credit support agreement between TMC and TFSC are very similar to the terms of the TFSC and TMCC credit support agreement.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 17 Nov 2025Toyota has reaffirmed its FY2026 outlook, holding its consolidated vehicle sales target at 9.8 mn units and total revenue at ¥49.0 tn, representing YoY increases of 5% and 2%, respectively. The forecast for operating income was revised up from ¥3.2 tn last quarter to ¥3.4 tn. The revised operating income guidance represents a 29% YoY decline, reflecting the full-year impact of US tariffs totaling ¥1.45 tn, a ¥555 bn negative effect from yen appreciation, and an additional ¥470 bn in higher material costs.
Management stated these headwinds are expected to be partially offset by improvement initiatives totaling ¥910 bn, which include higher sales volume, enhanced product mix, cost reductions, and expanded value chain profit. The operating margin is projected to contract to 6.9% for FY2026, down from 10.0% in FY2025, with tariffs accounting for the largest share of the decline.
Management clarified that the tariff assumptions for FY2026 include a 25% rate on Japanese exports to the US from April through September 15, 2025, dropping to 15% for the remainder of the fiscal year, and a 25% rate on exports from Canada and Mexico for the full year.
Key Metric
AS OF 17 Nov 2025| $ mn | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | F2Q26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Company Earning Assets | 117,659 | 120,018 | 129,707 | 132,385 | 131,042 |
| Cash and Investments | 7,670 | 6,398 | 8,570 | 10,769 | 8,904 |
| Total Liquidity | 36,070 | 33,498 | 37,570 | 37,569 | 37,704 |
| Unsecured Debt | 82,288 | 78,949 | 88,083 | 90,028 | 86,600 |
| Secured Debt | 26,864 | 32,736 | 34,337 | 37,717 | 36,352 |
| Total Debt | 109,152 | 111,685 | 122,420 | 127,745 | 122,952 |
| Allowance % Retail Rece. | 1.66% | 1.83% | 1.81% | 1.81% | 1.68% |
| Allowance / Net Charge-offs | 6.68x | 3.03x | 2.32x | 2.06x | 2.02x |
| Net Charge-offs % Avg. Receivable | 0.26% | 0.63% | 0.82% | 0.88% | 0.83% |
| 30+ Day Delinquency Rate | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 17 Nov 2025We reiterate our Underperform recommendation on notes of Toyota Motor Co and Toyota Motor Credit Corporation based primarily on relative value, although we consider the Toyota bond complex to be a relatively safe haven for long-term investors.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 17, 2025
Recommendation Changed: May 09, 2025
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Fundamental View
AS OF 17 Nov 2025Management expects positive US sales momentum to continue in F2H25. China retail sales showed signs of stabilizing last quarter based on strong demand for the N7 midsize EV sedan, prompting management to raise its full-year China retail sales target to reflect positive retail sales growth in F2H25. Sustained positive retail sales growth in the US and China in the back half of FY25 would increase our confidence in the company’s ability to achieve automotive segment profitability (ex. tariffs) in FY26 considering they are Nissan’s largest markets by volume and have historically been the company’s largest automotive profit contributors.
Business Description
AS OF 17 Nov 2025- Nissan, with headquarters in Yokohama, Japan, is a leading global automotive manufacturer with a market presence in many countries around the globe. The company’s growth investments are focused primarily on Japan, North America, and China, core markets with large profit pools in which Nissan has a meaningful market share. The company’s business in China is conducted through a joint venture with Dongfeng Motor Corporation.
- Nissan’s Sales Financing segment supports the sale of its vehicles by providing financing solutions to its customers and dealers. To enhance their creditworthiness, Nissan maintains keepwell (support) agreements with its wholly owned financial subsidiaries including Nissan Motor Acceptance Corporation (NMAC) in the United States and Nissan Financial Services (NFS) in Japan.
- The Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance was established in 1999 to enhance member company scale in product development and raw material purchasing. The alliance includes equity participation, which led to Nissan holding ownership stakes in Renault (15% non-voting) and Mitsubishi (34%) and Renault holding an ownership stake in Nissan (43%). The Alliance’s automobile production volume is the third largest globally behind Toyota and Volkswagen.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 17 Nov 2025Nissan anticipated a consolidated operating loss of ¥275 bn in FY25, with an operating margin of -2.4%. Management confirmed the operating loss outlook reflects the full-year tariff cost, which was revised down from ¥300 bn last quarter to ¥275 bn following the reduction in the tariff rate on Japanese vehicles from 25% to 15%, along with adjustments in manufacturing locations and supplier sourcing. Management maintains its target of returning to positive automotive operating profit and free cash flow by FY26, excluding tariffs.
The Re:Nissan plan targets ¥500 bn in cost savings by FY27, evenly split between variable and fixed costs, and includes reducing the number of manufacturing sites and workforce rationalization. The company has generated 4,500 cost savings ideas for a potential impact of ¥200 bn, up from ¥150 bn last quarter and approaching its variable cost reduction target of ¥250 bn. Nissan plans to end production at its sixth of seven plants slated for closure at the end of November 2025. The company aims to exceed ¥150 bn savings by the end of FY25 and surpass ¥250 bn in fixed costs savings (its target) by the end of FY26 (March 2027).
Key Metric
AS OF 17 Nov 2025| JPY bn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | LTM F2Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,393 | 9,573 | 11,524 | 11,371 | 10,957 |
| EBIT | (78) | 218 | 394 | (78) | (274) |
| EBIT Margin | (1%) | 2% | 3% | (1%) | (2%) |
| EBITDA | 211 | 535 | 745 | 286 | 31 |
| EBITDA Margin | 2.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Total Liquidity | 3,601 | 3,658 | 4,196 | 4,272 | 2,790 |
| Net Debt | (728) | (1,213) | (1,546) | (1,498) | (991) |
| Total Debt | 973 | 687 | 468 | 661 | 1,199 |
| Gross Leverage | n/m | 1.3x | 0.6x | 2.3x | 39.2x |
| Net Leverage | -3.4x | -2.3x | -2.1x | -5.2x | -32.4x |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 17 Nov 2025We reiterated our Market perform recommendation on Nissan Motor and Nissan Motor Acceptance Co. (NMAC) notes based on relative value, the company’s weak near-term automotive profit outlook, partially offset by improved retail sales trends and increased visibility into near-term Re: Nissan cost savings initiatives.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 17, 2025
Recommendation Changed: July 16, 2025
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Fundamental View
AS OF 17 Nov 2025Honda is only the second automaker in our coverage universe to lower full-year operating profit guidance this quarter. While Honda expects to benefit from a 14% reduction in anticipated tariff costs compared to last quarter, management acknowledged its plans to raise US vehicles prices to mitigate tariffs have been constrained by muted competitor pricing actions. The low historic profit margins and negative outlooks by S&P and Fitch increase the importance of Honda’s tariff mitigation strategies, which have thus far been vague and focused on increasing shifts at US plants, moving production of the Civic hybrid to the US, and securing more components locally.
Business Description
AS OF 17 Nov 2025- Honda Motor Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of automobiles, motorcycles, and power products. It operates through the following segments: Automobile, Motorcycle, Financial Services, and Power Product and Other Businesses. The Automobile segment manufactures and sells automobiles and related accessories. The Motorcycle segment handles all-terrain vehicles, motorcycle business, and related parts. The Financial Services segment provides financial and insurance services. The Power Products and Other Businesses segment offers power products and relevant parts.
- American Honda Finance Corporation (AHFC) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of American Honda Motor Co., Inc. (AHM or the Parent). Honda Canada Finance Inc. (HCFI) is a majority-owned subsidiary of AHFC. Non-controlling interest in HCFI is held by Honda Canada Inc. (HCI), an affiliate of AHFC. AHM is a wholly-owned subsidiary and HCI is an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC). Honda Motor Co. (HMC) maintains Keep Well (support) agreements with its North American finance subsidiaries, AHFC and HCFI. Under the Keep Well agreements, HMC agrees to (1) maintain at least 80% ownership in AHFC and HCFI, (2) ensure AHFC and HCFI maintain a positive net worth, and (3) ensure both AHFC and HCFI have sufficient liquidity to meet their debt payment obligations.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 17 Nov 2025Management affirmed its FY26 wholesale unit guidance for the Motorcycles and Power Products segments but lowered its Automobiles segment guidance by 8% to 3.34 mn units. The lower Automobile segment guidance reflects an anticipated 10% YoY decline compared to FY25.
The lower FY26 automobile volume guidance in Asia is broadly split between China and other Asia, which management attributed to increased competitiveness, especially from Chinese OEMs in China and other Asian countries. Management stated it needs to focus its attention on the profitable models, stabilize and then increase volumes, and enhance the profitability of its ICE and hybrid vehicles by rationalizing fixed costs.
Management lowered its FY26 consolidated operating profit forecast from ¥700 bn last quarter to ¥550 bn. The downward revision is driven by lower automobile volumes, weaker pricing expectations, partially offset by a smaller currency headwinds and lower tariff impacts. Full-year tariff impacts are now expected to total ¥385 bn (~US$2.5 bn), down from its ¥450 bn (~US$2.9 bn) estimate last quarter, based primarily on the parts tariff offset expansion.
Key Metric
AS OF 17 Nov 2025| JPY bn | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | LTM F2Q26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11,967 | 14,167 | 17,434 | 18,509 | 18,478 |
| EBIT | 741 | 612 | 1,219 | 899 | 646 |
| EBIT Margin | 6.2% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% |
| EBITDA | 1,334 | 1,294 | 1,964 | 1,630 | 1,367 |
| EBITDA Margin | 11.1% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 7.0% |
| Total Liquidity | 4,612 | 4,926 | 6,150 | 5,368 | 5,579 |
| Net Debt | (2,481) | (2,751) | (3,762) | (3,216) | (3,054) |
| Total Debt | 837 | 803 | 863 | 646 | 1,018 |
| Gross Leverage | 0.6x | 0.6x | 0.4x | 0.4x | 0.7x |
| Net Leverage | -1.9x | -2.1x | -1.9x | -2.0x | -2.2x |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 17 Nov 2025We reiterate our Underperform recommendation on Honda Motor Co. and American Honda Finance Corporation notes based on relative value, its weak consolidated operating profit outlook, and concerns about restoring its automobile business to profitability over the intermediate term.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 17, 2025
Recommendation Changed: May 15, 2025
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Fundamental View
AS OF 17 Nov 2025Honda is only the second automaker in our coverage universe to lower full-year operating profit guidance this quarter. While Honda expects to benefit from a 14% reduction in anticipated tariff costs compared to last quarter, management acknowledged its plans to raise US vehicles prices to mitigate tariffs have been constrained by muted competitor pricing actions. The low historic profit margins and negative outlooks by S&P and Fitch increase the importance of Honda’s tariff mitigation strategies, which have thus far been vague and focused on increasing shifts at US plants, moving production of the Civic hybrid to the US, and securing more components locally.
Business Description
AS OF 17 Nov 2025- Honda Motor Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of automobiles, motorcycles, and power products. It operates through the following segments: Automobile, Motorcycle, Financial Services, and Power Product and Other Businesses. The Automobile segment manufactures and sells automobiles and related accessories. The Motorcycle segment handles all-terrain vehicles, motorcycle business, and related parts. The Financial Services segment provides financial and insurance services.
- American Honda Finance Corporation (AHFC) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of American Honda Motor Co., Inc. (AHM or the Parent). Honda Canada Finance Inc. (HCFI) is a majority-owned subsidiary of AHFC. Non-controlling interest in HCFI is held by Honda Canada Inc. (HCI), an affiliate of AHFC. AHM is a wholly-owned subsidiary and HCI is an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC). Honda Motor Co. (HMC) maintains Keep Well (support) agreements with its North American finance subsidiaries, AHFC and HCFI. Under the Keep Well agreements, HMC agrees to (1) maintain at least 80% ownership in AHFC and HCFI, (2) ensure AHFC and HCFI maintain a positive net worth, and (3) ensure both AHFC and HCFI have sufficient liquidity to meet their debt payment obligations.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 17 Nov 2025Management affirmed its FY26 wholesale unit guidance for the Motorcycles and Power Products segments but lowered its Automobiles segment guidance by 8% to 3.34 mn units. The lower Automobile segment guidance reflects an anticipated 10% YoY decline compared to FY25.
Management lowered its FY26 consolidated operating profit forecast from ¥700 bn last quarter to ¥550 bn. The downward revision is driven by lower automobile volumes, weaker pricing expectations, partially offset by a smaller currency headwinds and lower tariff impacts. Full-year tariff impacts are now expected to total ¥385 bn (~US$2.5 bn), down from its ¥450 bn (~US$2.9 bn) estimate last quarter, based primarily on the parts tariff offset expansion.
The lower FY26 automobile volume guidance in Asia is broadly split between China and other Asia, which management attributed to increased competitiveness, especially from Chinese OEMs in China and other Asian countries. Management stated it needs to focus its attention on the profitable models, stabilize and then increase volumes, and enhance the profitability of its ICE and hybrid vehicles by rationalizing fixed costs.
Key Metric
AS OF 17 Nov 2025| $ mn | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | F2Q26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Company Earning Assets | 71,105 | 65,363 | 74,626 | 83,112 | 86,274 |
| Cash and Investments | 2,607 | 1,544 | 1,670 | 4,052 | 3,186 |
| Excess Liquidity | 9,607 | 8,544 | 8,670 | 11,052 | 10,186 |
| Unsecured Debt | 38,026 | 33,410 | 41,566 | 48,363 | 51,748 |
| Secured Debt | 8,888 | 6,927 | 9,351 | 12,384 | 14,202 |
| Total Debt | 46,914 | 40,337 | 50,917 | 60,747 | 65,950 |
| Allowance % Retail Rece. | 0.58% | 0.71% | 0.80% | 0.80% | 0.85% |
| Allowance / Net Charge-offs | 3.75x | 2.41x | 1.72x | 1.48x | 1.32x |
| Net Charge-offs % Avg. Receivable | 0.15% | 0.29% | 0.52% | 0.57% | 0.64% |
| 30+ Day Delinquency Rate | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 17 Nov 2025We reiterate our Underperform recommendation on Honda Motor Co. and American Honda Finance Corporation notes based on relative value, its weak consolidated operating profit outlook, and concerns about restoring its automobile business to profitability over the intermediate term.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 17, 2025
Recommendation Changed: May 15, 2025
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.PLDT
- Sector: Media and TelecommunicationsTechnologyTechnology Media and Telecommunications
- Sub Sector: Telecommunications
- Country: Philippines
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Fundamental View
AS OF 17 Nov 2025PLDT’s FY24 and 1H25 results were stable as expected; we see a modestly improving FY25 credit outlook aided by resilient EBITDA growth and residual tower sales, which could offset persisting high capex.
A potential stake sale of the data center business could drive further deleveraging.
While the spillover of a PHP 33 bn capex overrun to FY25 could weigh on free cash flows, we draw mild comfort that it was likely not due to fraud but rather a management misstep.
Business Description
AS OF 17 Nov 2025- PLDT is a leading telecom operator in the Philippines, competing alongside its main rival Globe Telecom in a predominant duopoly.
- PLDT provides 2G/3G/4G mobile, fixed-line, broadband, enterprise data, and other digital services to retail and corporate customers.
- PLDT operates through 2 main business segments – “Wireless Services” and “Fixed Line Services”.
- Its “Wireless” segment offers mobile voice, mobile SMS, mobile data and mobile broadband services to retail customers in the Philippines. These services are marketed under the “Smart Postpaid”, “Smart Prepaid”, "Sun Postpaid" and “TNT Prepaid” brands.
- Its “Fixed Line Services” segment provides fixed line voice, corporate data and home broadband services to retail and corporate customers in the Philippines.
- PLDT commercially launched 5G services on a small-scale basis in Jul-2020. It currently has over 3,000 5G sites nationwide.
- PLDT maintains dominant market shares in the mobile, fixed line voice, and the home broadband spaces.
- PLDT is backed by three established corporate groups, namely First Pacific (~15% stake), NTT Corporation (~12% stake) and JG Summit Holdings (~7% stake).
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 17 Nov 2025Aggressive expansion by new entrant DITO over the next 2-4 years could chew away at PLDT’s market share and restrain recoveries in average revenues per user (ARPU).
PLDT incurs significant capex that has restrained improvements in its leverage metrics and free cash flows. This is worsened by a recent capex overrun that has induced mild corporate governance uncertainties (though these have eased in recent months).
Consistently high dividend payouts could worsen PLDT’s already negative free cash flows.
PLDT is exposed to $/PHP depreciation risks ($300 mn 2050 bond is fully unhedged).
Key Metric
AS OF 17 Nov 2025| PHP bn | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 9M24 | 9M25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 71.9% | 73.3% | 74.2% | 74.1% | 74.7% |
| Net Debt to Book Cap | 65.7% | 69.3% | 72.0% | 71.3% | 72.6% |
| Debt/Total Equity | 256.2% | 273.9% | 287.5% | 286.2% | 294.9% |
| Debt/Total Assets | 46.8% | 49.6% | 53.8% | 52.1% | 56.9% |
| Gross Leverage | 2.9x | 2.9x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.2x |
| Net Leverage | 2.7x | 2.8x | 2.9x | 2.9x | 3.1x |
| Interest Coverage | 7.4x | 6.5x | 6.1x | 6.2x | 5.5x |
| EBITDA Margin | 48.7% | 49.1% | 51.1% | 51.8% | 52.3% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 17 Nov 2025We have a Market perform recommendation on PLDT and would avoid its 2050 bond. PLDT 2031 trades fairly to Globe 2030, Axiata 2030, and Bharti 2031. We do not like the PLDT 2050 that trades tight to other 2050 bonds in SSEA, including Reliance, Pertamina, and PLN. We are comfortable with PLDT’s sturdy credit profile aided by a resilient broadband business and tower sales, cushioning high capex and dividends. A minority stake sale of its data center business is also credit positive. Corporate governance fears have also eased post its capex overrun in end-2022. We are watchful of strong competition in the mobile space due to DITO’s ramp up.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 17, 2025
Recommendation Changed: May 31, 2022
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Bank of Philippine Islands
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Country: Philippines
- Bond: BPIPM 5 30
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.40%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 13 Nov 2025Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) is the 3rd largest bank in the Philippines by assets.
We view the bank as too big to fail given its systemic importance in the country. There is also a strong probability of support from the government in addition to its main shareholder, the Ayala Corporation if needed.
BPI has a long history, and we view it as a fundamentally sound bank with strong and improved profitability, and comfortable liquidity. Capital management however has become less conservative, and while asset quality is relatively well managed, we are keeping an eye on strong growth in the non-wholesale book.
Business Description
AS OF 13 Nov 2025- The history of the Bank of the Philippine Islands traces back to 1851. It is the oldest bank in the Philippines and South East Asia. It was first listed on the Philippine Stock Exchange in 1971, and became a universal bank in 1982.
- Ayala Corporation, one of the biggest conglomerates in the country, became BPI's dominant shareholder in 1969. Ayala Corp still holds a 49% stake in the bank.
- BPI has been acquisitive across the years. It merged with Far East Bank and Trust Company and acquired Ayala Insurance Holdings Corp in 2000. It acquired DBS Bank Philippines in 2001 and Prudential Bank Philippines in 2005. DBS was a shareholder of BPI but exited its position in 2013. More recently in January 2024, it completed the acquisition of the Gokongwei conglomerate's Robinsons Bank.
- The bank is predominantly a corporate bank with 69% of its loan book outstanding to corporates, and the balance to MSME and retail as of 3Q25. Management is keen to skew the loan mix further towards MSME and retail.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 13 Nov 2025Direct impact from US tariffs is limited given that the Philippines is not a major goods exporter, but there will be second order effects from a slowdown in regional and global growth.
The recent public infrastructure graft scandal will dampen government spending and private investment over the next couple of quarters, weighing on GDP and corporate loan growth. A prolonged hit to sentiment would exacerbate these effects and put pressure on asset quality.
Further BSP rate cuts are likely to support growth, which will pressure the NIM. BPI, however, remains on track for NIM expansion this year, driven by a pivot toward higher-yielding retail/MSME lending, RRR reductions, and reduced liquidity drag. We see asset quality risks from the strong focus on unsecured retail and MSME growth, but BPI’s wholesale-focused book (69% of total loans) provides comfort and provisioning capacity is strong.
Any rating downgrade of the Philippine sovereign would negatively impact BPI.
Key Metric
AS OF 13 Nov 2025| PHP mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 9M25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP ROA | 2.01% | 2.41% | 2.52% | 2.78% | 3.02% |
| Reported ROA (Cumulative) | 1.10% | 1.59% | 1.93% | 1.98% | 2.02% |
| Reported ROE (Cumulative) | 8.4% | 13.1% | 15.4% | 15.1% | 15.0% |
| Net Interest Margin | 3.30% | 3.59% | 4.09% | 4.31% | 4.60% |
| CET1 Ratio | 15.8% | 15.1% | 15.3% | 13.9% | 14.9% |
| Total Equity/Total Assets | 12.1% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 13.7% |
| NPL Ratio | 2.49% | 1.76% | 1.84% | 2.13% | 2.29% |
| Provisions/Loans | 0.91% | 0.58% | 0.22% | 0.32% | 0.68% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 221% | 195% | 207% | 159% | n/m |
| Net Stable Funding Ratio | 155% | 149% | 154% | 146% | n/m |
Our View
AS OF 19 Nov 2025BPI is the third largest bank in the Philippines with a long history. Its traditionally conservative approach has led to a loss of loan market share in the past, as well as a lower NIM than BDO and MBT. Recent brisk expansion in higher yielding retail and MSME loans has strongly improved profitability levels and driven NIM expansion despite rate cuts. While asset quality has slipped with the loan mix shift, it remains acceptable. However, we are watchful of risks from the strong growth in the non-wholesale book as provision reserves have been pared down to lower levels than peers. Still, we are overall comfortable with BPI given the large wholesale book (69% of loans) and underwriting record, strong provisioning capacity and comfortable liquidity. We have BPI on U/P from an RV standpoint.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 19, 2025
Recommendation Changed: May 21, 2025
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Bank of Philippine Islands
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