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Fundamental View
AS OF 04 Feb 2026Hana Financial Group (Hana FG) struggled for several years to make its acquisition of the former Korea Exchange Bank a success, but results improved dramatically in 2015 as revenues grew and cost efficiencies improved. It has produced strong results since 2020.
The group is looking for inorganic growth in its non-bank businesses as it has fallen behind Shinhan FG and KBFG in this area, but has so far shied away from a large acquisition.
Hana Bank has the highest CET 1 ratio among the Korean Big 4 banks.
Business Description
AS OF 04 Feb 2026- Hana FG is the third-largest financial group in South Korea. From small origins as a finance company in the 1970s, after the 1997 Asian crisis, Hana grew by acquiring three other banks, including the much older Seoul Bank, which had a banking and trust management business.
- Hana FG bought Korea Exchange Bank (KEB) from Lone Star in 2012 after overcoming many hurdles, but due to staff union opposition, it could not merge with Hana Bank until 2015.
- Hana FG's overseas business is smaller than its peers, and is complemented by KEB's extensive international operations. KEB was started in 1967 as a government-owned bank specializing in foreign exchange. It had a leading share in FX transactions and trade finance among Korean banks.
- Hana FG has shown good growth in its credit card and securities non-bank businesses, but is less diversified than its larger peers KB and Shinhan, which have also acquired insurance companies. Its latest acquisition (in 2019) was a 15% stake in Vietnam's state-owned Bank for Investment & Development (BIDV).
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 04 Feb 2026Hana FG’s credit costs at ~30 bp in FY24 and FY25 were lower than peers. However, the group’s NPL coverage ratio was also ~20-30 ppt behind peers.
NIMs are lower than those of KB and Shinhan at both the group and bank levels. The profit contribution from non-bank entities to group profits is also lagging behind these two peers. Both metrics are comparable to Woori’s.
Non-banking businesses have underperformed in recent years, with profit contributions falling from 20–30% in 2019–2021 to around 10%, primarily due to elevated provisions for domestic real estate project financing and valuation losses related to overseas commercial real estate.
Loan growth is expected to be more challenging given tighter regulation on mortgage lending.
Key Metric
AS OF 04 Feb 2026| KRW bn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Provision Profit ROA | 1.07% | 1.10% | 1.11% | 1.00% | 1.02% |
| ROA | 0.74% | 0.66% | 0.59% | 0.61% | 0.62% |
| ROE | 10.9% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.2% |
| Provisions/Loans | 0.16% | 0.34% | 0.46% | 0.32% | 0.31% |
| NPL Ratio | 0.32% | 0.34% | 0.50% | 0.62% | 0.72% |
| CET1 Ratio | 13.8% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 13.4% |
| Equity/Assets | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% |
| Net Interest Margin | 1.66% | 1.83% | 1.82% | 1.69% | 1.73% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 09 Feb 2026Hana FG grew through acquisitions but only in 2015 was it able to merge its two main bank units to form KEB-Hana Bank. Hana’s management has a good record but for some years struggled to extract value from its acquisitions. Its performance for the past few years has generally been strong. More focus has been put on RWA management and capital enhancement since 2H24. The non-bank segment remains a drag. Hana’s credit costs were lower than those of its peers, but this has also resulted in the lowest NPL coverage ratio among the four FGs. The bank LCR and NSFR are low at 105/109% (3Q25). The group aims to maintain a CET1 ratio of 13-13.5%; its bank level CET1 ratio is the highest amongst peers. Insurance M&A is being considered. We have an Underperform recommendation on tight valuations.
Recommendation Reviewed: February 09, 2026
Recommendation Changed: October 31, 2025
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Fundamental View
AS OF 27 Jan 2026We expect PT Mineral Industri Indonesia’s (MIND ID) strategic importance and policy role to the Government of Indonesia (GoI) to strengthen in line with the GoI’s downstream push and green energy transition efforts.
We expect MIND ID’s credit metrics to improve modestly in FY26 as healthy commodity prices (barring coal and nickel), capacity additions, and healthy dividend income from key joint venture PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) could offset high capex.
Mining regulatory risk remains a concern, though MIND ID’s large diversified scale of operations could partly limit such risks.
We are watchful of dividend upstreaming risks to Indonesia’s new sovereign wealth fund Danantara.
Business Description
AS OF 27 Jan 2026- MIND ID is an unlisted Indonesian state-owned holding company of various Indonesian mining operators.
- Key subsidiaries include: 1) Bukit Asam: Coal mining, processing, and sale of coal; 2) Timah: Tin mining, processing, and sale of downstream products; 3) Aneka Tambang (Antam): Mining, processing, and sale of gold products, nickel, ferronickel, bauxite and chemical grade alumina; 4) Inalum: Production of aluminium.
- Key unconsolidated joint ventures and associates include: 1) PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI): Mining, processing and sale of copper, gold and silver. MIND ID aims to raise its stake in PTFI to 71% from a current 51% in the medium-to-long term; 2) PT Vale Indonesia (PTVI): Mining and processing of nickel. MIND ID has a current 34% stake in PTVI.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 27 Jan 2026MIND ID is subjected to unanticipated changes in mining policies that raise operational and regulatory uncertainties.
MIND ID is exposed to commodity price fluctuations that could hurt sales price realizations and profitability.
Capex typically remains elevated, pressurizing its free cash flow generation and leverage.
MIND ID faces material asset concentration risk for its coal, gold and tin segments.
We are watchful of dividend upstreaming risks to Indonesia’s new sovereign wealth fund Danantara.
Key Metric
AS OF 27 Jan 2026| IDR bn | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 3Q24 | 3Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 44.6% | 41.6% | 35.7% | 38.0% | 34.3% |
| Net Debt to Book Cap | 27.1% | 24.5% | 21.8% | 23.7% | 23.0% |
| Debt/Total Equity | 80.5% | 71.2% | 55.5% | 61.4% | 52.2% |
| Debt/Total Assets | 38.7% | 35.6% | 30.4% | 31.6% | 29.0% |
| Gross Leverage | 3.5x | 7.0x | 5.7x | 6.0x | 4.5x |
| Net Leverage | 2.1x | 4.1x | 3.5x | 3.7x | 3.0x |
| Interest Coverage | 3.9x | 2.2x | 2.3x | 2.2x | 3.1x |
| EBITDA Margin | 19.9% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 14.2% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 27 Jan 2026We upgrade our rec on MIND ID to M/P from U/P, and prefer the 2048 within its bond complex. Since our U/P rec in Mar-2025, IDASAL’s bond spread differentials with Pertamina and PLN have widened close to where we see fair value. We see a modestly improving credit outlook over the next 12 months as strong gold and aluminium prices, new project contributions, and sturdy dividend income from jv PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) could offset rising downstream capex. We also view state support for IDASAL as gradually strengthening, given Danantara’s focus on mining as a priority industry. Key risks we are watchful of include overly aggressive capex and dividend payouts to Danantara, unanticipated unfavorable mining regulatory changes, and reduced dividends from PTFI.
Recommendation Reviewed: January 27, 2026
Recommendation Changed: August 28, 2025
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Reliance Industries
- Sector: Manufacturing
- Sub Sector: Diversified Conglomerates
- Country: India
- Region: India
- Bond: RILIN 4.125 25
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 5.531% (Indicative as of March 2)
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Fundamental View
AS OF 20 Jan 2026We are comfortable with Reliance’s large diversified scale of operations and dominant presence in various key sectors (refining, petrochemicals, retail and telecom), which allows for earnings resilience.
We believe a lackluster oils-to-chemicals outlook is well mitigated by strong outlooks for telecom and retail.
Plans to ramp up its renewable energy business could provide the next leg of growth and improve ESG perception.
Reliance incurs significant capex that has weighed on free cash flow generation, though we acknowledge its historically prudent financial management and robust credit metrics that provide ample elbowroom for some credit profile deterioration.
Business Description
AS OF 20 Jan 2026- RIL is an Indian diversified conglomerate engaged in oil & gas refining, marketing, petrochemicals, organized retail, telecom and digital services, amongst others. It is the largest company in India by revenue, profits, exports and market capitalization (INR 20 tn).
- It is the second largest refiner in India and produces petroleum products such as petrol, high-speed diesel (HSD), aviation turbine fuel (ATF), LPG and lubricants.
- It is the largest petrochemicals producer in India, boasting production of ~38 mn tons in FY20. Through its integrated Jamnagar refinery complex, it produces Polymers/Plastics, Elastomers (synthetic rubber) and Polyester products.
- It is the largest retailer in India in terms of revenue. It operates 18.8k stores (as of March 2024) to sell products ranging from consumer electronics, fashion and lifestyle, grocery, petrol retail and telecom and digital services. It launched its online retail channel, 'JioMart', in December 2019.
- Reliance Jio is the largest mobile telecom operator by subscriber base (482 mn as of March 2024) in India and boasts the widest 4G wireless network in the country.
- In 2021, RIL announced investments to the tune of INR 750 bn/ $10 bn (for next 3 years) to build a renewable energy ecosystem which will include 4 giga factories. Set to be located in Gujarat, the factories will produce solar modules, hydrogen, fuel cells and battery grid to store electricity. Long-term goals also include building 100 GW of PV solar plants by 2030.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 20 Jan 2026Reliance’s O2C (oil-to chemicals) margins remain under pressure from global tariff-led growth slowdown concerns and persisting oversupply conditions in China.
Reliance incurs significant capex at historically high levels, particularly from continued investments into its O2C, retail, and nascent renewables businesses. This has weighed on its free cash flow generation, though we take comfort in Reliance’s historically prudent financial management and robust credit metrics.
Reliance faces key-person risk; 65-year old Chairman Mukesh Ambani has begun to hand over the reins of the company’s different business divisions to his children.
Key Metric
AS OF 20 Jan 2026| INR bn | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | F1H25 | F1H26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 35.3% | 33.1% | 31.9% | 32.7% | 31.2% |
| Net Debt to Book Cap | 29.9% | 26.1% | 24.8% | 26.4% | 23.9% |
| Debt/Total Equity | 54.5% | 49.6% | 46.9% | 48.6% | 45.4% |
| Debt/Total Assets | 28.1% | 26.1% | 24.3% | 25.6% | 23.4% |
| Gross Leverage | 3.2x | 2.8x | 2.9x | 2.9x | 2.7x |
| Net Leverage | 2.7x | 2.2x | 2.2x | 2.3x | 2.1x |
| Interest Coverage | 5.0x | 7.0x | 6.8x | 6.9x | 6.7x |
| EBITDA Margin | 15.9% | 17.7% | 16.9% | 16.5% | 17.5% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 11 Feb 2026We have a Market perform recommendation on Reliance (RIL); we would avoid its 2045 and 2052 on tight valuations. We like RIL’s large diversified operations and dominant market shares in key sectors (refining, retail and telecom) that boosts earnings resilience. Its growing renewable business could aid ESG investor sentiment too. While we acknowledge persisting weakness in the O2C segment and RIL’s elevated capex needs, we think the impact is mitigated by RIL’s prudent financial management and healthy credit metrics that provide ample elbowroom for some credit profile deterioration. While key man risk remains a concern, we take comfort in gradually progressing succession plans.
Recommendation Reviewed: February 11, 2026
Recommendation Changed: June 30, 2021
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Fundamental View
AS OF 15 Jan 2026Qatar National Bank (QNB) is a quasi-sovereign entity due to its state ties and ownership. It dominates the domestic market with a >50% share.
QBN is the largest bank in the Middle East by total assets. Profitability is behind leading UAE and Saudi banks due to weaker asset quality, but operating metrics are overall sound and capital adequacy ratios are strong.
Liquidity risk is moderate. QNB’s loan-to-deposit ratio is above 100% and NSFR is just slightly above 100%, which is worse than the UAE but comparable to Saudi banks. QNB also has a high reliance on wholesale and foreign funding. However, this is mitigated by strong state support.
Business Description
AS OF 15 Jan 2026- QNB is the flagship bank of Qatar and the largest bank in the six-state Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. Established in 1964 and listed on the Qatar Stock Exchange, the State of Qatar owns a 50% stake in QNB through its sovereign wealth fund, the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA).
- QNB dominates the Qatari banking system and serves as the principal provider of credit and liquidity to the local economy, representing more than 50% of total banking system assets and loans.
- The bank's operations are segmented into domestic Corporate Banking, Consumer Banking, Asset Management and Wealth Management divisions, as well as International operations. Given its flagship status and close government links, it obtains high volumes of lower-risk, public sector business domestically (35% of total loans at December 2025).
- QNB operates in more than 28 countries, with a significant presence in Turkiye and Egypt through its subsidiaries QNB Bank A.S. & Enpara Bank A.S., and QNB Egypt, respectively. 78% of its loan book is domestic, followed by Turkiye (11%) and Egypt (3%) at December 2025.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 15 Jan 2026Qatar’s economic fundamentals are strong, anchored by the world’s largest LNG reserves. While high hydrocarbon dependence is a structural weakness and energy prices are likely to moderate in 2026, fiscal surpluses should be sustained on higher production; gas prices also have better stability than oil prices. Growth prospects for 2026 are favorable across both hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon sectors, with expected rate cuts supporting bank asset quality and loan growth.
QNB has a high reliance on wholesale and foreign funding sources due to limited domestic retail deposits, but liquidity risks are contained by sufficient liquidity ratios and a high likelihood and capacity for the sovereign to provide support given QNB’s systemic importance, the Qatar government’s 50% stake via the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), and Qatar’s substantial net foreign assets.
Asset quality is underpinned by QNB’s sizable lower-risk public sector business in Qatar (35% of loans at Dec-25), as a result of its flagship status and strong state links. International operations in Turkiye (11% of loans) and (3%) Egypt however carry higher financial and geopolitical risks.
Key Metric
AS OF 15 Jan 2026| QAR mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Margin | 2.18% | 2.53% | 2.51% | 2.60% | 2.66% |
| ROAA | 1.25% | 1.27% | 1.29% | 1.34% | 1.29% |
| ROAE | 17.2% | 17.6% | 18.0% | 18.7% | 17.7% |
| Equity/Assets | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| CET1 Ratio | 15.2% | 15.7% | 16.0% | 15.2% | 15.5% |
| Gross NPL Ratio | 2.32% | 2.83% | 2.97% | 2.77% | 2.60% |
| Provisions/Gross Loans | 0.92% | 1.08% | 1.01% | 0.89% | 0.93% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 15 Jan 2026The interdependence and the state’s 50% ownership stake effectively make QNB a quasi-sovereign entity. The largest bank in the MEA region has a robust and low-risk balance sheet. Qatar is the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and CreditSights has a favourable view on the stability of LNG prices. The bank exposure to Turkey (11% of loans) is the main cause for its credit costs running in the 90-100 bp range for the past several quarters. Capital is solid at >15% CET1 ratio, with liquidity being the main issue given a limited pool of domestic deposits, which makes QNB wholesale funding dependent. It also operates with a low NSFR, similar to some UAE banks. We see its spreads trading slightly wide (flat to FAB is our expectation) and have it on Market perform.
Recommendation Reviewed: January 15, 2026
Recommendation Changed: January 07, 2026
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Delta Air Lines
- Sector: Transportation
- Sub Sector: Airlines
- Country: US
- Bond: DAL 5.25 30
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.50%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 15 Jan 2026Delta’s focus on premium cabin and atlantic flying driven by its loyalty program lead the airline to enjoy industry best profitability. Delta targets 1x gross leverage, an A level balance sheet in our view.
Our Outperform had been predicated on an eventual move to A-category ratings for the Delta credit- we still think that can happen down the line. With the DAL 5.25% 7/2030 trading at +80, we are removing O/P call and moving to Market Perform while we wait out the credit card noise.
Business Description
AS OF 15 Jan 2026- DAL is one of the world's largest airlines with a network comparable to UAL and AAL in size and distribution. It is perceived by the flying public as the "most premium" of the Big Three network carriers in the US.
- DAL has an extensive global network of airline affiliations, including Air France/KLM, Virgin Atlantic, Aeromexico, LATAM, and China Eastern.
- DAL management is the most evolved of the US network airlines, previously focused on used aircraft to lower capital costs and setting up full-cycle maintenance programs, buying a refinery to hedge crack spread, and developing non-commodity products including the leading loyalty program.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 15 Jan 2026DAL faces all the industry exogenous risks: geopolitical events, pandemics, oil price volatility, and recessionary fears.
The recently weaker dollar may manifest as a headwind to international demand. DAL was able to capitalize on strong Atlantic recovery post-pandemic through its extensive existing network; however, it lost its status as the number one airline on US-Europe routes to United which grew very fast in the segment and now occupies the first spot.
DAL’s 1x leverage target is the lowest target in the industry.
Higher income households are still outspending the middle and lower income ones, propelling Delta’s business even higher.
Capping credit card rates (as well as interchange reform) could be a significant headwind to loyalty programs, where Delta is strongest.
Key Metric
AS OF 15 Jan 2026| $ mn | Y23 | Y24 | Y25 | LTM 4Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 58,048 | 61,642 | 63,364 | 63,364 |
| EBIT | 5,521 | 5,995 | 5,822 | 5,822 |
| EBITDAR | 8,843 | 9,482 | 9,239 | 9,239 |
| Cash | 2,741 | 3,069 | 4,310 | 4,310 |
| Short Term Investments | 10,061 | 721 | 0 | 0 |
| Net Debt | 16,269 | 13,151 | 9,796 | 9,796 |
| Adjusted Debt/LTM EBITDAR | 3.3x | 2.6x | 2.4x | 2.4x |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 22 Jan 2026For 2026, Delta’s guide was slightly below the Street but still reflects earnings growth in excess of 20% for the year on 3% capacity growth. Leverage is expected to end the year at a solid 2x (vs. a 1x long-term target), and debt reduction remains a priority. However, if the year goes well, management indicated shareholder returns could resume this year. The potential for credit card reform is looming. Talks of 10% APR caps as well as interchange reform are troubling for a premium/loyalty-heavy airline like DAL. Our Outperform had been predicated on an eventual move to A-category ratings for the Delta credit- we still think that can happen down the line. With the DAL 5.25% 7/2030 trading at +80, we are removing O/P call and moving to MP while we wait out the credit card noise.
Recommendation Reviewed: January 22, 2026
Recommendation Changed: January 14, 2026
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.SMC Global Power
- Sector: Energy
- Sub Sector: Independent Power Producers
- Country: Philippines
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Fundamental View
AS OF 14 Jan 2026We see lower non-call risk for SMC GP’s c.2026 perps owing to strong near-term parental funding support, its recent c.2024 and c.2025 perp refinancing, and recent bond exchange/tender with a new $900 mn c.2029 perp issuance.
We see an improving credit outlook for SMC GP aided by lower thermal coal input costs, new contracts, and capacity additions. Net cash inflows of $2.1-$2.2 bn from the completion of an LNG deal is also positive.
While SMC GP improved its cost passthrough contractual mix from end-FY23 onwards, the company still remains exposed to high thermal coal input costs (~40-50% of contracts).
SMC GP incurs sizable capex that has led to additional debt incurrence and elevated credit metrics.
Business Description
AS OF 14 Jan 2026- SMC GP is a leading power generation and distribution company in the Philippines. Its total generation capacity stands at 4.7 GW, accounting for ~20% of the national grid.
- The bulk of its revenues is derived from power generation (~82%), with the remainder from electricity distribution and retailing (~18%).
- It operates 7 power generating plants across diversified energy sources, comprising coal (~62%), natural gas (~25%), hydro (~12%) and battery energy storage (~1%).
- Through long-term power supply agreements and retail supply contracts, SMC GP either sells electricity directly to customers (including large Philippines power distribution company Manila Electric Company, distribution utilities and other industrial customers), or through the Philippine Wholesale Electricity Spot Market.
- SMC GP acts as the Independent Power Producer Administrator (IPPA) for three power plants (~54% of total capacity), where it has the right to sell electricity generated by the IPPs without having to bear large upfront capital expenditures for plant construction and maintenance.
- SMC GP also distributes and retails electricity services through its wholly-owned subsidiary Albay Power and Energy, which distributes power in the province of Albay, Luzon.
- SMC GP is a wholly-owned unlisted subsidiary of San Miguel Corporation, one of the largest and most diversified conglomerates in the Philippines based on total revenues and assets.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 14 Jan 2026SMC GP still has $984 mn of c.2026 perps outstanding to be addressed, though we see low non-call risks.
A moderate portion of SMC GP’s off-take contracts do not contain cost pass-through mechanisms. This exposes the company to a rise in thermal coal input costs that could squeeze its EBITDA margins.
SMC GP incurs sizable capex that has spurred additional debt incurrence. Consequently, its credit metrics remain elevated.
Over 80% of SMC GP’s installed capacity is thermal coal or gas-fired, which may be viewed unfavorably from an ESG perspective.
Key Metric
AS OF 14 Jan 2026| PHP bn | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 3Q24 | 3Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 69.2% | 62.8% | 64.4% | 62.4% | 58.3% |
| Net Debt to Book Cap | 66.4% | 59.4% | 57.7% | 58.8% | 48.1% |
| Debt/Total Equity | 224.6% | 168.7% | 181.2% | 165.6% | 139.8% |
| Debt/Total Assets | 79.0% | 73.8% | 73.8% | 71.3% | 67.2% |
| Gross Leverage | 19.4x | 12.9x | 11.9x | 10.4x | 10.4x |
| Net Leverage | 18.6x | 12.2x | 10.7x | 9.8x | 8.6x |
| Interest Coverage | 1.4x | 2.2x | 2.3x | 2.5x | 2.1x |
| EBITDA Margin | 13.2% | 26.4% | 26.6% | 25.7% | 43.5% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 03 Feb 2026We upgrade SMC GP to Outperform from Market perform. SMC GP’s perps trade wide to S&SEA B-rated corporates including Vedanta and Indika, and we see room for 30+ bp of outperformance. We are comfortable with SMC GP’s improving credit outlook, completion of the $3.3 bn LNG deal, strong parental support, and management’s willingness and ability to repay the perps. We like SMC GP’s c.2029-2030 perps for their high coupons, and we see the ~8% yields as attractive for a S&SEA HY credit with improving fundamentals. That said, key risks include any weakening of parental funding support (due to SMC’s own sizable infra capex) and overly aggressive capex.
Recommendation Reviewed: February 03, 2026
Recommendation Changed: February 03, 2026
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.International Container Terminal Services Inc
- Sector: Transportation
- Sub Sector: Shipping and Infrastructure
- Country: Philippines
- Bond: ICTPM 3.5 31
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.96%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 14 Jan 2026We expect ICTSI to remain resilient amid global growth slowdown fears owing to yield improvements and strong cost control.
ICTSI has steadily deleveraged over the past 5 years which we see as prudent financial management. Yet management’s recent lean towards growth at the expense of deleveraging could restrain improvements in credit metrics.
While ICTSI is exposed to material EM-related geopolitical risks, we think its geographically diversified revenue base across 20 countries limits country-specific risks.
While sizable capex and high dividend payouts could strain ICTSI’s credit profile, we take comfort in ICTSI’s robust OCF generation that should keep FCFs positive.
Business Description
AS OF 14 Jan 2026- ICTSI develops and operates common user container terminals, with a focus on those within Origin and Destination (O&D) ports based in emerging markets.
- ICTSI provides integrated ports services that facilitate the receiving, handling and storage of cargo. These are broadly split into four streams: vessel charges (i.e. services relating to moving cargo on and off ships), yard charges (i.e. services relating to moving cargo in the container and storage yards), storage fees (i.e. services relating to cargo and container storage), and other ancillary fees.
- ICTSI currently operates across 33 port concessions in 19 countries. As of end-1H25, ICTSI's revenues are well diversified across the Asia (43%), EMEA (19%) and the Americas (38%).
- ICTSI operates its container terminals under long-dated concession agreements (typically ~25 years) with the relevant local port authorities or governments. For some concessions, fees charged to customers are regulated by the authorities that prescribe maximum price limits and, in some cases, allow for CPI-linked tariff hikes. For other concessions, fees charged are unregulated and allow for greater price-setting flexibility and volatility too.
- ICTSI is required to make periodic fee payments to the respective authorities for the right to operate the concessions. These payments are typically a combination of fixed charges and variable charges based on cargo traffic volume or gross revenues.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 14 Jan 2026ICTSI is exposed to EM-related geopolitical, regulatory and operating risks. That said, we think the impact is mitigated by its geographically diversified revenue base across 20 countries that limits country-specific risks.
Trade uncertainties from Trump’s policies could hamper cargo volume growth.
Growing capex tendencies and high dividend payouts could strain ICTSI’s free cash flows and credit metrics, though we think the impact is mitigated by ICTSI’s robust operating cash flow generation.
While ICTSI is exposed to FX depreciation risks as most of its revenues and cash expenses are in EM currencies, natural hedging has been fairly effective thus far.
Key Metric
AS OF 14 Jan 2026| $ mn | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 3Q24 | 3Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 71.9% | 73.0% | 70.1% | 72.3% | 70.0% |
| Net Debt to Book Cap | 58.2% | 61.0% | 52.6% | 55.7% | 56.1% |
| Debt/Total Equity | 255.3% | 269.9% | 233.9% | 261.6% | 233.2% |
| Debt/Total Assets | 62.5% | 60.3% | 58.2% | 59.8% | 54.9% |
| Gross Leverage | 3.1x | 2.9x | 2.5x | 2.6x | 2.2x |
| Net Leverage | 2.5x | 2.4x | 1.9x | 2.0x | 1.8x |
| Interest Coverage | 4.6x | 4.4x | 4.9x | 4.8x | 5.6x |
| EBITDA Margin | 62.8% | 63.0% | 65.0% | 65.3% | 66.8% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 14 Jan 2026We have a Market perform recommendation on ICTSI. We think ICTSI 2030 and 2031 trades fairly to PLDT 2031 and Globe Telecom 2030. We expect ICTSI’s credit metrics could remain improve slightly in FY25 as steady yield improvements and sturdy domestic trade activity could outweigh high capex, potential M&A, and trade uncertainties from Trump’s policies. While ICTSI is exposed to EM-related geopolitical and operating risks (notably in the Mid East and Russia-Ukraine), we believe these are mitigated by its highly geographically diversified revenues. We also expect ICTSI’s robust cash-generative business to drive positive free cash flows even amid persisting capex and dividends. We see low non-call risk for the ICTSI c.2026 perp
Recommendation Reviewed: January 14, 2026
Recommendation Changed: August 16, 2023
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Country Overview
AS OF 13 Jan 2026- Indonesia is the world’s fourth-most populous nation and the largest economy in Southeast Asia
- The economy is diverse, with key sectors including manufacturing, agriculture, mining, and services.
- Indonesia is a significant producer of commodities like coal, palm oil, and natural gas.
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Fundamental View
AS OF 05 Jan 2026BNP’s financial strength is based on its strong franchises across retail, commercial and investment banking, and its wide business and geographic diversification. Profitability is sound and improving, while asset quality has held up well.
Uncertainty around the financial health of the French sovereign and its ratings have the capacity to weigh on BNP’s stock price and its credit spreads. More recently, uncertainty around litigation and Sudan claims circles the bank.
Capital and leverage ratios are run tightly considering BNP’s balance sheet size.
Business Description
AS OF 05 Jan 2026- BNP is one of the most diversified banking groups in Europe, having been created from a merger of the retail/commercial bank BNP and the corporate/investment bank Paribas in 2000.
- Domestic Markets (DM) comprises the Group's four retail banking networks in the eurozone and its three specialised business lines (including leasing and digital banking). The retail banks are French Retail Banking (FRB), BNL in Italy, BNP Paribas Fortis in Belgium and BGL BNP Paribas in Luxembourg.
- International Financial Services (IFS) includes consumer finance, asset management and private banking, and subsidiaries in non-eurozone countries, including TEB in Turkey and BNP Paribas Bank Polska.
- Corporate & Institutional Banking (CIB) is a global provider of financial solutions to corporate and institutional clients and includes BNP's extensive trading and investment banking businesses.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 05 Jan 2026BNP Paribas remains the subject of various claims concerning the Madoff matter; amongst other claims. Litigation provisions on the balance sheet stood at €973 mn at 30 June 2025. BNP says the latest claims against it stand at $1.1 bn as of June 2025.
If there was a negative rating action on the sovereign, it is possible that BNP’s ratings will be impacted but it is difficult to say with any uncertainty. France represents around 30% of revenues and gross commitments on balance sheet and sovereign bond holdings are moderate; we discuss more below.
A U.S. court found BNP liable for $21 mn of damages to three Sudanese refugees, in connection with its alleged role in providing banking services to Sudan’s former president and enabling human rights abuses. This is immaterial for the bank, however, the concern is that the case could open the door to similar claims from other victims, via class action or individual suits.
Key Metric
AS OF 05 Jan 2026| mn | Y21 | Y22 | Y23 | Y24 | 3Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return On Equity | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.8% |
| Total Revenues Margin | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Cost/Income | 67.3% | 60.7% | 62.6% | 61.8% | 60.5% |
| CET1 Ratio (Transitional) | 12.9% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 12.5% |
| CET1 Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 12.9% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 12.5% |
| Leverage Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 143.0% | 129.0% | 148.0% | 137.0% | 138.0% |
| Impaired Loans (Gross)/Total Loans | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | n/a |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 18 Feb 2026BNP remains one of the more diversified bank names in Europe. Its strong business and geographic diversification has helped it maintain good profitability and asset quality. Earnings have been resilient, with CIB a stand-out performer. Liquidity and funding metrics look sound. Asset quality has held up well, although an outlier is the group’s personal finance business. The latter is being restructured, to focus more on auto finance rather than personal lending. BNP’s capital position is tight but it has increased its target going through to 2028. It is looking to expand now in insurance and asset management, likely to grow fee income. BNP is expected higher net income in the next few years from 2025. Several litigation overhangs exist; we maintain a Rich view on its AT1.
Recommendation Reviewed: February 18, 2026
Recommendation Changed: October 30, 2018
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Fundamental View
AS OF 05 Jan 2026ING displays robust and consistent asset quality, good earnings and a well-balanced funding profile.
These attributes are supported by its strong franchise in retail and wholesale banking in the Benelux region and its good geographic diversification.
At the same time, it has sizeable exposures to cyclical industry sectors in its Wholesale Banking division, although these have been reduced in recent years. Capital cushions are being run down over time although given higher minimum capital requirements, it recently increased its CET1 target.
Business Description
AS OF 05 Jan 2026- ING was founded in 1991 by a merger between Nationale-Nederlanden and NMB Postbank Group. It is now the largest Dutch bank by total assets.
- ING is focused on retail and commercial banking in the Benelux countries, with direct banking franchises in Germany, Spain, Italy, Australia, as well as Poland, Romania, Turkey and the Philippines.
- In April 2016, it completed the process of divesting all of its insurance business (in Europe, the US and Asia), under the Restructuring Plan conditions imposed by the European Commission after it received state aid in 2008-2009.
- In November 2016, ING announced that its resolution entity would be its holding company, ING Groep NV. ING Groep is now the issuing entity for all TLAC/MREL-eligible debt (AT1, Tier 2 and senior unsecured), and its sole operating entity is ING Bank N.V.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 05 Jan 2026In 2025, Moody’s amended the outlook on ING’s senior unsecured debt rating to Positive.
ING is looking to become more acquisitive, so it remains a candidate for M&A in the coming years. In 1H25, it increased its stake in Van Lanschot to 20.3%.
ING’s CET1 ratio will trend down towards its 13% target in the coming years, bringing it more in line with other major peers.
Key Metric
AS OF 05 Jan 2026| € mn | Y21 | Y22 | Y23 | Y24 | 3Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return On Equity | 8.8% | 7.1% | 14.4% | 12.6% | 14.5% |
| Total Revenues Margin | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| Cost/Income | 60.5% | 60.3% | 51.2% | 53.6% | 51.1% |
| CET1 Ratio (Transitional) | 15.9% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 13.6% | 13.4% |
| CET1 Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 15.9% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 13.6% | 13.4% |
| Leverage Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 139.0% | 134.0% | 143.0% | 143.0% | 140.0% |
| Impaired Loans (Gross)/Total Loans | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 11 Feb 2026After divesting its insurance operations, the remaining business, ING Bank, has stayed a solid Benelux-based bank with a strong direct banking arm in several countries. Profitability growth has been supported by a gradual recovery in the Dutch economy. Net interest income has been supported by volume growth – the bank looks in good shape versus several other core European banks and fee income is increasing. Capital ratios are trending downwards given distributions on offer to shareholders. In January 2025, it announced its intention to exit Russia but in September it was announced the deal has stalled; this will negative impact 2026 results. We moved from Outperform to Market perform on 6 February 2025.
Recommendation Reviewed: February 11, 2026
Recommendation Changed: February 07, 2025
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