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Sector: Financial Services
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Fundamental View
AS OF 19 Dec 2025Macquarie was tested during the global financial crisis, but managed to steer through the crisis without reporting losses. A strong balance sheet mitigated liquidity problems, but its banking unit had to turn to Australia’s central bank at that time for support.
The group has an impressive track record of managing risks and achieving good returns, and has built capabilities in a number of areas. Divestments are controlled based on market conditions. It was a beneficiary of market volatility in the commodity space in FY23-24. Its Australian mortgage book has also shown strong but sensible growth.
Business Description
AS OF 19 Dec 2025- Macquarie grew out of the Australian business of Hill Samuel, which commenced operations in 1969. Macquarie Group Ltd (MGL) is the holding company and listed entity, under which there is the banking group Macquarie Bank Ltd (MBL) which consists of the Banking & Financial Services (BFS) and Commodities & Global Markets (CGM) businesses, and a non-banking group which consists of the Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) and Macquarie Capital (MC) businesses.
- From the 1990s, the group has been associated with the "Macquarie Model" which focused on identifying cash-generating infrastructure assets & packaging them into funds that could be sold, with Macquarie taking fees as banker, arranger and asset manager.
- It acquired asset managers including Delaware Investments in the US and Blackmont Capital in Canada, boutique investment bank Fox-Pitt Kelton and specialists such as Tristone Energy (Canada). It acquired US asset manager, Waddell & Reed in April 2021, which added around US$76 bn of assets under management. It has recently sold its public AM business in the US and Europe to Nomura. Adjusting for the Nomura transaction, MAM has AUM of A$720 bn.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 19 Dec 2025Macquarie Group has sizable exposure to credit and equity risk, and so could be adversely impacted by falls in asset prices. In addition, volatile/weak markets could and has impeded its ability to exit some of its investments.
Its earnings profile partially depends on exits and therefore is lumpy in nature. It has till recently managed this risk well, but we are now cautious about its declining group capital surplus (it does not commit to a minimum level).
It is a global leader in infra investments and is well positioned for the green transition (though recently selling down these assets has proved difficult). It has been a strong beneficiary of volatility in commodity markets, a testament to its risk management capabilities.
Its banking unit was subject to enforcement action in Apr-21 by APRA over the incorrect treatment of intra-group funding arrangements resulting in an A$500 mn operational risk overlay as well as LCR and NSFR add-ons. The CGM unit also saw higher regulatory remediation-related spend more recently.
Key Metric
AS OF 19 Dec 2025| AUD mn | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | 1H26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Income | 19,576 | 17,071 | 17,569 | 8,720 |
| Cost/Income | 62.0% | 71.4% | 70.5% | 71.8% |
| Net Profit | 5,182 | 3,522 | 3,715 | 1,655 |
| Return on Equity | 16.9% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 9.6% |
| Total Impairments/Op Profit | 6.1% | (7.4%) | 6.6% | 1.2% |
| Annuity Business Profit Contribution | 34.2% | 36.5% | 43.6% | 51.9% |
| MBL CET1 Ratio (APRA) | 13.7% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 12.4% |
| MBL Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 214% | 191% | 175% | 173% |
| MBL Net Stable Funding Ratio | 124% | 115% | 113% | 113% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 27 Jan 2026Macquarie has a strong record of profitability since its inception. Its AM business focused on infrastructure, including green assets, is a global leader. It manages risks and returns effectively, and in FY22+23 was a large beneficiary of O&G and power price volatility. The Aus banking business has steadily gained mortgage marketshare. Large investment disposals from AM and Macquarie Capital led to a record year in FY22; strong commodities outperformance led to another record in FY23. FY24 income was affected by asset realisations and gas & power income. FY25 was helped by asset sales, 1H26 was just 3% up YoY. The group capital surplus is falling but is comfortable at the bank level. ALM is conservative. Senior spreads at both bank and group are tight. Fines from ASIC are imminent.
Recommendation Reviewed: January 27, 2026
Recommendation Changed: August 04, 2025
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Siam Commercial Bank
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Country: Thailand
- Region: Thailand
- Bond: SCBTB 3.9 24
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 5.573% (Indicative as of March 2)
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Fundamental View
AS OF 05 Dec 2025Siam Commercial Bank (SCBTB) has been a sound and profitable bank. It has a focus on the retail segment and targets to increase margins by growing its non-traditional banking businesses. It announced a major business overhaul in September 2021 to establish a new parent company called SCB X to segregate the group’s core banking services (Gen 1) from its new fintech and digital businesses and to enable greater flexibility and independence.
Recent credit costs however have been elevated due to the riskier exposure that these entail. However, profitability remains healthy and the capital buffer is strong at both the Holdco (SCB X) and Bank (SCB) level.
Business Description
AS OF 05 Dec 2025- Siam Commercial Bank was founded as the "Book Club" in 1904. In 1907, it started operating as a commercial bank and was renamed as "The Siam Commercial Bank". It completed its IPO on the Stock Exchange of Thailand in 1976.
- The bank is 23.58% owned by the King of Thailand, and a further 23.32% is owned by the Vayupak Fund 1, which is controlled by the government.
- SCB is the fourth largest Thai bank by assets and is known for its robust retail franchise.
- Its loan profile was 36% corporate, 16% SME, and 48% retail as of September 2025.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 05 Dec 2025We see a significant impact to the Thai economy from potential US tariffs, with ripple effects in the form of lower bank NIMs and higher credit costs than earlier guided for this year. Moody’s and Fitch have also downgraded their rating outlook on the Thailand sovereign (and consequently the Thai banks including KTB at Moody’s, which it currently rates in line with the sovereign) to negative in April and September 2025 respectively on increased risks to Thailand’s economic and fiscal strength.
The group’s business overhaul and strategic focus on retail comes with higher credit costs, particularly from the riskier target segments at the Gen 2/3 businesses. We expect a similar range for 2026 given challenges to the Thai economy including US tariffs, but SCB X’s higher NIM and low-40%s cost-income ratio provide comfortable room for that to be absorbed. We also take comfort in the ringfencing of the bank unit (SCB) from the Group’s riskier business units, and management’s minimum CET1 ratio of 16% at SCB.
Loan growth is likely to remain modest given a soft growth outlook for Thailand.
Key Metric
AS OF 05 Dec 2025| THB mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 9M25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP ROA | 2.63% | 2.50% | 2.88% | 2.87% | 2.97% |
| ROA | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% |
| ROE | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% |
| Equity/Assets | 13.4% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 13.9% |
| CET1 Ratio | 17.6% | 17.7% | 17.6% | 17.7% | 17.7% |
| Reported NPL ratio | 3.79% | 3.34% | 3.44% | 3.37% | 3.30% |
| Provisions/Loans | 1.84% | 1.45% | 1.82% | 1.76% | 1.71% |
| Gross LDR | 93% | 93% | 99% | 97% | 94% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 202% | 216% | 217% | 212% | n/m |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 22 Jan 2026SCB is the 4th largest bank in Thailand and has a leading retail franchise. Asset quality during COVID was poor. It created a new HoldCo structure (SCBX) in 2022 to shift digital units and unsecured retail loans outside the bank, and pledged a >16% CET1 ratio at SCB. The BOT has also ringfenced SCB which further reduces the risk for the SCBTB bonds. The NIM has been strong vs. peers as expected. We expect there to still be a sizable restructured book at SCB, and higher retail exposure amid elevated household debt has resulted in credit costs staying high, but these have been comfortably absorbed. We also see a meaningful impact to the Thai economy from US tariffs, with ripple effects in the form of lower bank NIMs and credit costs staying fairly elevated. We have an Underperform rec.
Recommendation Reviewed: January 22, 2026
Recommendation Changed: April 22, 2025
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Fundamental View
AS OF 05 Dec 2025Krung Thai Bank is the 3rd largest bank by assets in Thailand, with a 55.07% state ownership through the Financial Institutions Development Fund. We see strong government support underpinning KTB’s underlying credit profile.
The state influence opens the bank up to potentially government-directed lending; it has secured an increasingly meaningful portion of banking business from government agencies and State Owned Enterprises, which underscored its one-notch upgrade by Fitch in Dec-21.
KTB was faced with asset quality challenges in the past and had the highest NPL ratio and restructured loans among the major Thai banks. It has since de-risked its loan book, and asset quality has proven to be more resilient than its peers with lower COVID-19 restructured loans.
Business Description
AS OF 05 Dec 2025- KTB is the 3rd largest bank by assets in Thailand. The Thai Financial Institutions Development Fund owns 55.07% of the bank, and has a free float of 44.93%.
- Being the largest state-owned bank, it secures a meaningful portion of banking business from government agencies and State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) and per the bank, is the preferred bank for the government and SOE employees.
- Though state owned, the bank runs on a commercial basis and is not considered as a policy bank.
- KTB's loan profile comprised 47% retail, 25% private corporates, 10% SME, and 18% Government & SOEs at September 2025.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 05 Dec 2025We see a significant impact to the Thai economy from potential US tariffs, with ripple effects in the form of lower bank NIMs and higher credit costs than earlier guided for this year. Moody’s and Fitch have also downgraded their rating outlook on the Thailand sovereign (and consequently the Thai banks including KTB at Moody’s, which it currently rates in line with the sovereign) to negative in April and September 2025 respectively on increased risks to Thailand’s economic and fiscal strength.
NIM pressure is set to continue into the coming quarters on the back of rate cuts to support growth, exacerbated by KTB’s domestically and large corporates focused book. Loan growth will also remain middling across the Thai banks due to a focus on quality amid the current backdrop.
However, we take comfort in KTB’s conservative focus on the government agencies/SOEs segment, which is supporting asset quality well amid the challenging environment.
Key Metric
AS OF 05 Dec 2025| THB mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 9M25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP ROA | 1.83% | 1.98% | 2.40% | 2.48% | 2.59% |
| ROA | 0.63% | 0.94% | 1.01% | 1.23% | 1.32% |
| ROE | 6.1% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 11.1% |
| Equity/Assets | 10.5% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 12.6% |
| CET1 Ratio | 15.6% | 15.6% | 16.5% | 17.9% | 18.9% |
| Calculated NPL ratio | 3.50% | 3.26% | 3.08% | 2.99% | 2.88% |
| Provisions/Loans | 1.31% | 0.93% | 1.43% | 1.18% | 1.19% |
| Gross LDR | 99% | 98% | 104% | 100% | 94% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 196% | 201% | 202% | 207% | n/m |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 22 Jan 2026KTB is the 3rd largest bank in Thailand by assets and the largest state-owned bank. It is 55% indirectly owned by the Thai government and thus secures meaningful business from government agencies and SOEs (~20% of total loans), which has undergirded its stable asset quality during and post-COVID; it was faced with asset quality challenges in the past, but fundamentals have improved as it de-risked its loan book. We see greater NIM pressure on KTB than most peers from the turn in base rates. We also see a meaningful impact to the Thai economy from US tariffs, with ripple effects in the form of lower bank NIMs and continued high credit costs. The CET1 ratio though is solid at ~18% and the loan mix is safer than peers. We have it on M/P as the $ AT1 has <1 year to call date.
Recommendation Reviewed: January 22, 2026
Recommendation Changed: April 22, 2025
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Kasikornbank
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Region: Thailand
- Bond: KBANK 5.458 28
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.77%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 05 Dec 2025Kasikornbank (KBANK) is a historically sound and profitable bank.
Capitalisation is strong and the bank has among the highest CASA ratios in the banking sector. Asset quality took a surprise turn for the worse in 4Q22 due to its larger SME exposure and the bank has since focused on de-risking its portfolio. Credit costs are improving but remain elevated.
Margins are high compared to most other Thai banks we cover as a result of its strong SME franchise, but the shift in growth focus to the safer but lower yielding segments has diminished its margin lead.
Business Description
AS OF 05 Dec 2025- KBank is currently the second largest bank in Thailand. It briefly was the largest from 2018 until mid-2020, upon which Bangkok Bank completed its acquisition of Indonesia's Bank Permata and took its place.
- KBank's history can be traced back to 1945 when it was first established as Thai Farmers Bank. It was listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand in 1976 and changed its name to Kasikornbank in 2003.
- As of September 2025, the bank's loan mix by segment consists of 41% corporate, 25% SME, 29% retail and 5% others.
- KBank is known for its strong SME franchise. It also partially owns a life insurance company, Muang Thai Life.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 05 Dec 2025We see a significant impact to the Thai economy from potential US tariffs, with ripple effects in the form of lower bank NIMs and higher credit costs than earlier guided for this year. Moody’s and Fitch have also downgraded their rating outlook on the Thailand sovereign (and consequently the Thai banks including BBL at Moody’s, which it currently rates in line with the sovereign) to negative in April and September 2025 respectively on increased risks to Thailand’s economic and fiscal strength.
KBANK has a higher retail/SME loan mix and sizable restructured loans portfolio (~8.8% of total loans), so credit costs remain elevated compared to peers with guidance now revised to 165-170 bp for 2025. We expect a similar range for 2026 given challenges to the Thai economy including US tariffs, but KBANK’s higher NIM and low-40%s cost-income ratio provide comfortable room for that to be absorbed. The focus on safer segments is helping to rein in credit costs.
KBANK’s switch to focus on safer segments however will weigh on the NIM, which is compounded by more rate cuts from the BOT to support growth. The NIM currently remains higher than most of its peers.
Key Metric
AS OF 05 Dec 2025| THB mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 9M25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP ROA | 2.38% | 2.36% | 2.52% | 2.64% | 2.59% |
| ROA | 0.98% | 0.86% | 0.99% | 1.15% | 1.19% |
| ROAE | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% |
| Equity / Assets | 13.1% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 14.9% | 15.2% |
| CET1 Ratio | 15.5% | 15.9% | 16.5% | 17.4% | 18.7% |
| Gross NPL ratio | 3.76% | 3.19% | 3.19% | 3.20% | 3.19% |
| Provisions / Loans | 1.73% | 2.11% | 2.08% | 1.90% | 1.64% |
| Gross LDR | 93% | 91% | 92% | 91% | 88% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 174% | 164% | 195% | 184% | n/m |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 22 Jan 2026Kasikornbank is the 2nd largest bank in Thailand. We are cautious about its one quarter loan book exposure to SMEs given the macro backdrop; credit costs spiked in 4Q22 mainly from the SME book and high yield small ticket lending, and the restructured loan book remains sizable. The bank however has switched to focus on safer segments, which is weighing on the historically high NIM but helped to stabilize credit costs. Credit costs remain fairly elevated but comfortably absorbed thus far. Capital is high with CET1 at ~18%. The NIM though is on a decline from lower rates, safer new loans, higher parking of funds in liquidity. We see a meaningful US tariff impact, with ripple effects in the form of lower bank NIMs and credit costs staying fairly elevated. We have an Underperform rec.
Recommendation Reviewed: January 22, 2026
Recommendation Changed: April 22, 2025
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Bangkok Bank
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Region: Thailand
- Bond: BBLTB 4.507 30
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.42%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 05 Dec 2025- Bangkok Bank is a family run conservative financial institution, with high capital and liquidity levels.
- It acquired Indonesia’s Permata Bank in 2020 which resulted in a meaningful decline in its CET1 ratio to 14%. It has been built back to 18%. Management aims to keep the CET1 ratio above ~16% in preparation for Basel III final reforms.
- Profitability (ROA and ROE) has historically been below the industry average, due in part to higher exposure to the lower-yielding corporates segment that has resulted in a lower NIM. However, the returns gap has narrowed as this has supported its relatively better asset quality than most peers in a prolonged sluggish macroeconomic environment.
Business Description
AS OF 05 Dec 2025- Bangkok Bank was set up in 1944 and was listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand in 1975. It is a family-run bank and the current President of the bank, Chartsiri Sophonpanich, is the grandson of the founder of the bank.
- It is the largest bank by assets in Thailand. It was briefly surpassed by Kasikornbank in 2018, but the Bank Permata acquisition has taken BBL back to No.1.
- The bank is corporate-loan focused, and the loan book was split 49% corporate, 16% SME, 12% retail, and 23% international as at September 2025. It is by far the most international amongst the Thai banks, with branches in 14 economies.
- BBL's overseas presence has been enhanced by the acquisition of Bank Permata, the 12th largest bank in Indonesia. Bank Permata's asset size is ~10% of that of BBL.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 05 Dec 2025- We see a significant impact to the Thai economy from potential US tariffs, with ripple effects in the form of lower bank NIMs and higher credit costs than earlier guided for this year. Moody’s and Fitch have also downgraded their rating outlook on the Thailand sovereign (and consequently the Thai banks including BBL at Moody’s, which it currently rates in line with the sovereign) to negative in April and September 2025 respectively on increased risks to Thailand’s economic and fiscal strength.
- NIM pressure is set to continue into the coming quarters on the back of rate cuts to support growth. Loan growth will also remain middling across the Thai banks due to a focus on quality amid the current backdrop. However, we take comfort in BBL’s prudent provisioning, high loan loss buffers and safer large corporate book.
- The acquisition of Bank Permata of Indonesia in May 2020 provides BBL with exposure to the high growth opportunities of the Indonesian market, but this also presents higher risks.
Key Metric
AS OF 05 Dec 2025| THB mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 9M25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP ROA | 1.65% | 1.60% | 1.92% | 2.02% | 2.24% |
| ROA | 0.65% | 0.67% | 0.93% | 1.00% | 1.12% |
| ROE | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.9% |
| Equity / Assets | 11.4% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 12.9% |
| CET1 Ratio | 15.2% | 14.9% | 15.4% | 16.2% | 18.0% |
| Calculated NPL ratio | 3.20% | 3.10% | 2.70% | 2.70% | 3.30% |
| Provisions / Loans | 1.38% | 1.24% | 1.26% | 1.30% | 1.49% |
| Gross LDR | 82% | 84% | 84% | 85% | 82% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 270% | 271% | 277% | 265% | n/m |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 22 Jan 2026Bangkok Bank’s strength has been its large corporate book and strong capital. It completed the acquisition of Indonesia’s Bank Permata (~12% of loans) in 2Q20 which reduced its CET1 ratio to 14%, but it has since rebuilt it to ~17-18%. Returns though have been lower due to thinner corporate margins, and we see greater NIM pressure on BBL than most peers from the turn in base rates. Disclosure from BBL is less than peers and credit costs rose again in FY25. However, we take comfort in BBL’s strong loss buffers and large corporate book. We also see a meaningful impact to the Thai economy from US tariffs, with ripple effects in the form of lower bank NIMs and continued high credit costs. We have it on Market perform as its recent longer dated issues trade at fair levels.
Recommendation Reviewed: January 22, 2026
Recommendation Changed: December 03, 2025
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Region: Japan
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Fundamental View
AS OF 26 Nov 2025After reorganising and building up capital for the full impact of Basel 3, SMFG has recently been acquisitive to develop its next phase of growth, and now has a lower capital buffer than Mizuho.
It has a strong retail, mid and large corporate franchise in Japan, but its securities arm SMBC Nikko punches below weight.
Given its size and systemic importance, SMFG is considered too big to fail, and will be supported by the Japanese government if needed.
Business Description
AS OF 26 Nov 2025- The core unit of SMFG is Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp (SMBC), whose main predecessors were Sumitomo Bank and Mitsui Bank.
- SMFG's group companies include the securities firm SMBC Nikko, SMBC Trust Bank, SMBC Card Company, SMBC Consumer Finance, Sumitomo Mitsui Finance and Leasing, SMFG India Credit Company (SMICC), Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, and SMBC Aviation Capital.
- SMFG does not have a large trust business as Sumitomo Trust and Chuo Mitsui Trust chose not to join SMFG, but merged with each other to form the separate Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings.
- It has been acquisitive over the years, particularly in emerging Asia and leasing assets. In 2021, the group took a 49% stake in Vietnam's FE Credit, 74.9% of Indian NBFI Fullerton Capital (now called SMICC), 4.99% of Philippines' RCBC, and 4.5% of US investment bank Jefferies. In 2022, it increased its stake in RCBC to 20%. In 2023, it acquired a 15% stake in Vietnam's VP Bank, and increased its stake in Jefferies from 4.5% to 15%, and in 2024 took its stake in SMICC to 100%. In 2025 it took a 24% stake in India's Yes Bank, and increased its Jefferies stake to 20%.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 26 Nov 2025SMFG has the strongest Japan retail franchise amongst its peers, and a very strong corporate banking franchise.
Similar to the other megabanks, SMFG aims to focus more on the US, and reduce low return RWAs in Europe and Asia ex-Japan.
SMFG has made a number of acquisitions and taken stakes in banks and NBFIs in Vietnam, the Philippines, India and Indonesia. The group took JPY 135 bn of goodwill impairments in FY24 on its Vietnam investments. RoE on these investments has been poor.
It has increased its 15% stake in Jefferies to 20%, to develop revenue opportunities for SMBC Nikko. Further investments in SMBC Nikko will be required.
Its CET1 ratio buffer is ~200 bp, which we would like to see maintained.
Key Metric
AS OF 26 Nov 2025| JPY bn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 1H25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Revenue/Average Assets | 0.64% | 0.68% | 0.70% | 0.82% | 0.88% |
| Operating Income/Average Assets | 1.23% | 1.26% | 1.39% | 1.44% | 1.58% |
| Operating Expense/Operating Income | 62% | 61% | 60% | 58% | 53% |
| Pre-Impairment Operating Profit / Average Assets | 0.48% | 0.51% | 0.58% | 0.60% | 0.79% |
| Impairment charge/Average Loans | (0.31%) | (0.22%) | (0.27%) | (0.32%) | (0.16%) |
| ROAA | 0.30% | 0.32% | 0.36% | 0.41% | 0.64% |
| ROAE | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 12.5% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 02 Feb 2026SMFG’s banking business had performed well, while its non-bank subsidiaries had underperformed over FY21-22. The group had a better 2H vs a poor 1H23, with improved trading and fee revenues, partially offset by higher credit costs at the non-bank businesses. The group became acquisitive from 2021, taking a 49% stake in a leading Vietnamese NBFI and 15% of its parent (VP Bank), 20% of RCBC of the Philippines, 74.9% of NBFI Fullerton India (now 100%), 4.5% in US IB Jefferies (increasing to 20%), and 24% of India’s Yes Bank for the next stage of growth. Its high CET1 ratio has been whittled down by acquisitions. FY24 results were boosted by share sales and structured investment trusts, 9M25 showed a large jump on base effects. Govt. support is assured. We like its PerpNC10 AT1s for duration.
Recommendation Reviewed: February 02, 2026
Recommendation Changed: August 05, 2025
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Region: Japan
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Fundamental View
AS OF 26 Nov 2025MUFG is the largest of Japan’s three megabanks, and has the most diversified operations by business line and geography. It had also been the most acquisitive till the early 2020s.
Core profitability had been weak due to Japan’s ultra-low interest rates and growth; that improved post an efficiency drive and a CEO change in April 2020; the bank has improved international margins and fee income, and benefits from rising domestic interest rates.
Given its size and systemic importance, MUFG is considered too big to fail, and will be supported by the Japanese government if needed.
Business Description
AS OF 26 Nov 2025- The 2 main banks of MUFG are MUFG Bank (earlier Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ or BTMU) & Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking. In the early stages of Japan's long banking crisis, Bank of Tokyo merged with Mitsubishi Bank, and in the late stages they absorbed UFJ (former Sanwa Bank & Tokai Bank) while Mitsubishi Trust absorbed Toyo Trust & Nippon Trust.
- The group includes consumer lenders Mitsubishi-UFJ NICOS & ACOM, and securities/IB JVs with Morgan Stanley. MUFG invested in Morgan Stanley in 2008 and now has a ~20% stake. In Dec-22, it completed the sale of its US retail and commercial bank, MUFG Union Bank, to US Bancorp.
- It has a majority stake in Thailand's Bank of Ayudhya (now Krungsri), 20% stakes in Vietnam's Vietinbank and Philippines' Security Bank, and 100% of Indonesia's Bank Danamon.
- In 2019, it acquired Colonial First State from Commonwealth Bank of Australia to strengthen its global asset management business, in 2020 it invested $700 mn in SE Asia's Grab, and more recently has bought Home Credit's Philippine and Indonesian subsidiaries, Link (an Australian pension fund administrator), auto loan companies in Indonesia, Albacore Capital, StanChart's Indonesian retail operations, and a stake in an Indian NBFI.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 26 Nov 2025Its recent divisional performance has been strong, with the domestic businesses benefiting from higher BOJ rates, and robust growth in fee income.
Credit costs have been rising because of increased exposure to personal unsecured loans in Japan and Southeast Asia, as well as higher-risk lending in Southeast Asia.
Its close relationship with Morgan Stanley has led it to take large positions in US corporate finance loans, which has been problematic on occasion.
We see limited risk from rising JGB yields as the large equity unrealised gains dwarf the unrealised losses on the bond portfolio.
Key Metric
AS OF 26 Nov 2025| JPY bn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 1H25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Revenue/Average Assets | 0.57% | 0.79% | 0.64% | 0.73% | 0.73% |
| Operating Income/Average Assets | 1.11% | 1.22% | 1.23% | 1.22% | 1.48% |
| Operating Expense/Operating Income | 69% | 65% | 61% | 67% | 56% |
| Pre-Impairment Operating Profit / Average Assets | 0.34% | 0.43% | 0.48% | 0.40% | 0.65% |
| Impairment charge/Average Loans | (0.30%) | (0.61%) | (0.36%) | 0.00% | (0.12%) |
| ROAA | 0.32% | 0.30% | 0.39% | 0.47% | 0.65% |
| ROAE | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 12.5% |
| CET1 post Basel 3 reforms excl. secs gains | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 10.5% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 05 Feb 2026MUFG is the largest of the megabanks with more diversified business lines than its peers. Digitalisation and operational efficiency improvements, in addition to higher rates in Japan and the US, had led to much better results in FY24. Lending discipline has lifted international margins; domestic margins though lag its peers. Its ~20% shareholding in Morgan Stanley has been a boon. Its $ liquidity is the best amongst its peers, and government support is assured. Its CET1 ratio ratio has fallen to ~180 bp, which we see as low; pro-forma for the Shriram acquisition it will fall to a particularly low ~120 bp. However, we see the group’s earnings power improving from BOJ rate rises and so continue with our Market perform recommendation. We see current levels on its 6NC5 of G+68 bp as 5 bp wide.
Recommendation Reviewed: February 05, 2026
Recommendation Changed: August 05, 2025
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Fundamental View
AS OF 25 Nov 2025UBS agreed to acquire Credit Suisse in March 2023 after the latter collapsed following a severe liquidity crisis.
CS was a large and complex organisation, so the integration, and the inevitable associated losses and costs, will dominate UBS’s strategic outlook and financial performance for several years.
However, UBS was able to negotiate substantial downside protection which should shield it from losses at CS.
Away from CS, UBS has reshaped its business model, with a greater emphasis on wealth management and less focus on investment banking, particularly fixed income.
Its earnings remain somewhat dependent on capital market conditions, but its capital, asset quality and profitability ratios have been among the strongest for European banks.
Business Description
AS OF 25 Nov 2025- Headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, UBS has private, corporate and institutional clients worldwide and retail clients in Switzerland. It is one of the world's largest wealth managers.
- It completed the acquisition of CS on 12 June 2023. It has merged CS’s domestic Swiss bank (Credit Suisse Schweiz AG) with its own domestic bank (UBS Switzerland AG) in 2024, keeping the CS brand “for the time being”.
- CS’s holding company (Credit Suisse Group AG) has been merged into UBS Group AG, so that the group has a single holding company, and the operating subsidiaries, including UBS AG and Credit Suisse AG, were merged on 31 May 2024.
- UBS operates through its Corporate Center and four business divisions: Global Wealth Management, Personal & Corporate Banking, Asset Management, and the Investment Bank, plus a new Non-core and Legacy division following the acquisition of CS.
- The Investment Bank has been restructured in recent years to scale back fixed income trading and focus on equities trading and origination & advisory business.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 25 Nov 2025The proposed amendments to the Swiss ‘Too Big To Fail’ capital and TLAC framework by the Swiss authorities could result in substantially higher capital requirements for UBS.
The decision of the Swiss Federal Administrative Court in October 2025 that the write-down of Credit Suisse AT1s by FINMA in March 2023 was unlawful creates uncertainty about any possible liability for UBS.
A French court imposed fines and civil damages of €4.5 bn ($5.1 bn) in February 2019, which UBS appealed. The French Supreme Court overturned the penalties and damages in November 2023, and the case has been remanded to the Court of Appeal for a retrial.
Key Metric
AS OF 25 Nov 2025| $ mn | 3Q25 | Y24 | Y23 | Y22 | Y21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return On Equity | 11.1% | 6.0% | 38.4% | 13.0% | 12.4% |
| Total Revenues Margin | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% |
| Cost/Income | 77.0% | 84.8% | 95.0% | 72.1% | 73.6% |
| CET1 Ratio (Transitional) | 14.8% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 15.0% |
| CET1 Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 14.8% | 14.3% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 15.0% |
| Leverage Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 182% | 188% | 216% | 164% | 155% |
| Impaired Loans (Gross)/Total Loans | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 04 Feb 2026We have Market perform recommendations on UBS AG (operating bank) and UBS Group (holding company) having revised the HoldCo recommendation from Underperform in August 2024. We revised our recommendation on its AT1s from Fair to Rich in January 2026. Its rescue and takeover of Credit Suisse in March 2023 was a seminal event that has had major consequences for UBS’s strategy and financial performance, as well as carrying substantial execution risk. However, the integration is on track, and UBS’s performance has been steadily improving. Capital, asset quality and liquidity all look strong, although Swiss regulatory capital requirements are set to increase significantly in coming years and have created uncertainty over UBS’s capital position..
Recommendation Reviewed: February 04, 2026
Recommendation Changed: August 14, 2024
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Fundamental View
AS OF 25 Nov 2025Standard Chartered has been making good progress in the past few years, improving its asset quality and profitability and dealing with legacy litigation issues. Capital, funding and liquidity look solid.
However, tensions between China and the West, including reciprocal trade tariffs between the US and China, and global economic headwinds continue to cloud the near term outlook.
Its unusual business mix – headquartered and regulated in the UK but operating primarily in Asia, Africa and the Middle East – means it is well diversified but sensitive to geopolitical developments and emerging market volatility.
Business Description
AS OF 25 Nov 2025- Standard Chartered PLC is the holding company and listed entity of the group, in which Standard Chartered Bank is the main operating company.
- Although Standard Chartered is headquartered in London and therefore subject to UK banking regulation, its operations are mainly in Asia (Hong Kong is its biggest single market, Africa and the Middle East. It is present in over 60 markets.
- It has the usual variety of businesses across these regions, including corporate and institutional banking, retail banking, commercial banking and private banking. It specialises in trade finance and cross-border cash management.
- It is classified as a G-SIB, with a regulatory capital buffer of 1%.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 25 Nov 2025Political tensions in Hong Kong, a slowing economy in China and a weak commercial real estate sector, and a US/China trade war have threatened the growth and stability of some of Standard Chartered’s key markets.
A number of Standard Chartered’s markets have underperformed in the past but are now turnaround stories, including India, Korea, Indonesia and the UAE.
The group has had to improve its AML and sanctions controls. In April 2019, it paid a $947 mn fine to US authorities over breaches of US sanctions and a £102 mn fine to the UK FCA for AML weaknesses.
Key Metric
AS OF 25 Nov 2025| $ mn | 3Q25 | Y24 | Y23 | Y22 | Y21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Equity | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% |
| Total Revenues Margin | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| Cost/Income | 61.5% | 64.0% | 64.1% | 66.9% | 74.3% |
| CET1 Ratio (Transitional) | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 14.1% |
| CET1 Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 13.9% | 14.1% |
| Leverage Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| Loan Impairment Charge | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Impaired Loans (Gross)/Total Loans | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 02 Dec 2025We revised our recommendation on Standard Chartered HoldCo senior from Underperform to Market perform on 26 April 2023, but we changed our recommendations on Tier 2 and AT1 from Fair to Rich on 10 January 2024. The changes reflect StanChart’s recent resilient performance, while taking into account the potential impact from US tariffs policies and exposure to China. Capital and liquidity ratios are robust, and profitability has improved significantly, but the bank continues to face geopolitical tensions inherent in its extensive operations in Hong Kong, China and the rest of Asia.
Recommendation Reviewed: December 02, 2025
Recommendation Changed: April 26, 2023
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.State Bank of India
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Country: India
- Bond: SBIIN 4.875 28
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 5.23%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 19 Nov 2025State Bank of India (SBI) is the largest state-owned bank in India and is in some respects the country’s flagship bank. Given the bank’s ~55% government ownership and systemic importance, government support for SBI is very strong.
The bank’s capital buffers are relatively low, but we take comfort in the strong government support.
Business Description
AS OF 19 Nov 2025- State Bank of India is the largest commercial bank in India. Its predecessor banks date back to the 19th century. In the early 20th century, they merged to form the Imperial Bank of India, which became the State Bank of India after India gained independence in 1947.
- The Government of India remains the largest shareholder with a 55.03% stake. Per the SBI Act, the government's shareholding cannot fall below 55%.
- SBI's merged with its 5 associate banks and Bharatiya Mahila Bank in 2018. The merger catapulted SBI into one of the world's 50 largest banks.
- The bank has 85% of its loans in the domestic market, and has steadily increased its international business too over the past few years with offices across all international business centres. The domestic book is split 43% retail, 33% corporates, ~14% SMEs and ~10% to the agri segment as of September 2025.
- It has diversified its operations with well regarded subsidiaries in the areas of fund management, credit cards, insurance, and capital markets.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 19 Nov 2025SBI does not have a strong buffer vs. the regulatory minimum of 8%, but its size, systemic importance and majority government shareholding confer particularly strong government support. But consequentially, any deterioration in the sovereign ratings will also affect the bank’s credit.
RBI repo rate cuts will impact the NIM in FY26-27, with another 25 bp reduction on the table in December. System loan growth has been slow despite improved system liquidity, but picked up in F2Q26. Momentum should sustain into F2H26 given GST rate cuts and the 3Q festive season. A sustained pickup in private sector capex though hinges on consumption strength enduring beyond the festive period.
We are cautious about pockets of stress in Indian retail, particularly unsecured retail and microfinance. Asset quality however is trending well as SBI’s personal unsecured loans book is ~95% to salaried employees of top tier corporates and the government.
Key Metric
AS OF 19 Nov 2025| INR mn | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | 1H26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIM | 3.12% | 3.37% | 3.28% | 3.09% | 2.93% |
| ROAA | 0.67% | 0.96% | 1.04% | 1.10% | 1.15% |
| ROAE | 11.9% | 16.5% | 17.3% | 17.3% | 16.4% |
| Equity to Assets | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% |
| CET1 Ratio | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 11.7% |
| Gross NPA Ratio | 3.97% | 2.78% | 2.24% | 1.82% | 1.73% |
| Provisions/Loans | 0.91% | 0.54% | 0.14% | 0.38% | 0.47% |
| PPP ROA | 1.58% | 1.59% | 1.60% | 1.72% | 1.69% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 10 Feb 2026SBI is India’s largest bank and a well-run franchise. Government support (55% shareholding, can’t drop below 51%) underpins SBI’s relative positioning, while fundamentally, it has good operating metrics and business plans, a comfortable LDR, sufficient CET1 ratio (recently boosted by an equity raise in Jul-25), and the best management among the public sector banks. India’s macro backdrop remains relatively robust and SBI’s lower risk personal unsecured loans clientele is supporting asset quality well. Lower rates should keep asset quality well-supported. Rate cuts will feed through to the NIM in FY26, but treasury gains have provided some offset, and deposit repricing has started to catch up. Loan growth has picked up strongly. We like the name, but have it on M/P as it trades fair.
Recommendation Reviewed: February 10, 2026
Recommendation Changed: April 25, 2025
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