DOWNLOAD
Region: Europe
Read this content. Log in or sign up.
If you are an investor with us, log in first to your Metrobank Wealth Manager account.
If you are not yet a client, we can help you by clicking the SIGN UP button.
Fundamental View
AS OF 17 Jun 2025ING displays robust and consistent asset quality, good earnings, solid capital ratios and a well-balanced funding profile.
These attributes are supported by its strong franchise in retail and wholesale banking in the Benelux region, its good geographic diversification, and its focus on low risk residential mortgage lending.
At the same time, it has sizeable exposures to cyclical industry sectors in its Wholesale Banking division, although these have been reduced in recent years.
Business Description
AS OF 17 Jun 2025- ING was founded in 1991 by a merger between Nationale-Nederlanden and NMB Postbank Group. It is now the largest Dutch financial institution by total assets.
- ING Bank is focused on retail and commercial banking in the Benelux countries, with direct banking franchises in Germany, Spain, Italy, Australia, as well as Poland, Romania, Turkey and the Philippines.
- In April 2016, it completed the process of divesting all of its insurance business (in Europe, the US and Asia), under the Restructuring Plan conditions imposed by the European Commission after it received state aid in 2008-2009.
- In November 2016, ING announced that its resolution entity would be its holding company, ING Groep NV. ING Groep is now the issuing entity for all TLAC/MREL-eligible debt (AT1, Tier 2 and senior unsecured), and its sole operating entity is ING Bank N.V.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 17 Jun 2025ING expects 2025 revenues to be broadly the same as in 2024 (€22.6 bn) and targeted a 5-10% increase in fee income. Total expenses are expected to rise to around €12.5-€12.7 bn (excluding incidental items) (FY24: €12.1 bn). ING notes the outlook excludes the previously announced intended sale of its business in Russia. As a reminder, this is expected to negatively impact its P&L by a net €700 mn and reduce its CET1 ratio by 5 bp.
ING is looking to become more acquisitive, so it remains a candidate for M&A in the coming years.
ING’s CET1 ratio will trend down towards its 12.5% target in the coming years, bringing it more in line with other major peers.
Key Metric
AS OF 17 Jun 2025| € mn | Y21 | Y22 | Y23 | Y24 | 1Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return On Equity | 8.8% | 7.1% | 14.4% | 12.6% | 11.4% |
| Total Revenues Margin | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% |
| Cost/Income | 60.5% | 60.3% | 51.2% | 53.6% | 56.8% |
| CET1 Ratio (Transitional) | 15.9% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 13.6% | 13.6% |
| CET1 Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 15.9% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 13.6% | 13.6% |
| Leverage Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 139.0% | 134.0% | 143.0% | 143.0% | 142.0% |
| Impaired Loans (Gross)/Total Loans | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 02 May 2025After divesting its insurance operations, the remaining business, ING Bank, has stayed a solid Benelux-based bank with a strong direct banking arm in several countries. Profitability growth has been supported by a gradual recovery in the Dutch economy, but since 2018 heavily affected by higher compliance costs after ING was hit by a money-laundering charge. Net interest revenues are declining but fundamentally, the bank looks in good shape versus several other core European banks and fee income is increasing. Capital ratios are trending downwards given distributions on offer to shareholders. In January 2025, it announced its intention to exit Russia, which would appear credit positive. We moved from Outperform to Market perform on 6 February 2025.
Recommendation Reviewed: May 02, 2025
Recommendation Changed: February 07, 2025
Who We Recommend
Sultanate of Oman
Korea Electric Power Corp.
Korea Gas Corp.
How may we help you?
Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Read this content. Log in or sign up.
If you are an investor with us, log in first to your Metrobank Wealth Manager account.
If you are not yet a client, we can help you by clicking the SIGN UP button.
Fundamental View
AS OF 23 May 2025UBS agreed to acquire Credit Suisse in March 2023 after the latter collapsed following a severe liquidity crisis.
CS was a large and complex organisation, so the integration, and the inevitable associated losses and costs, will dominate UBS’s strategic outlook and financial performance for several years.
However, UBS was able to negotiate substantial downside protection which should shield it from losses at CS.
Away from CS, UBS has reshaped its business model, with a greater emphasis on wealth management and less focus on investment banking, particularly fixed income.
Its earnings remain somewhat dependent on capital market conditions, but its capital, asset quality and profitability ratios have been among the strongest for European banks.
Business Description
AS OF 23 May 2025- Headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, UBS has private, corporate and institutional clients worldwide and retail clients in Switzerland. It is one of the world's largest wealth managers.
- It completed the acquisition of CS on 12 June 2023. It has merged CS’s domestic Swiss bank (Credit Suisse Schweiz AG) with its own domestic bank (UBS Switzerland AG) in 2024, keeping the CS brand “for the time being”.
- CS’s holding company (Credit Suisse Group AG) has been merged into UBS Group AG, so that the group has a single holding company, and the operating subsidiaries, including UBS AG and Credit Suisse AG, were merged on 31 May 2024.
- UBS operates through its Corporate Center and four business divisions: Global Wealth Management, Personal & Corporate Banking, Asset Management, and the Investment Bank, plus a new Non-core and Legacy division following the acquisition of CS.
- The Investment Bank has been restructured in recent years to scale back fixed income trading and focus on equities trading and origination & advisory business.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 23 May 2025The acquisition of CS will be a long and complex process, and the necessary restructuring is likely to result in losses and costs, although UBS has substantial protection, not least in the large negative goodwill.
Litigation costs have been a feature of UBS’s results in recent years, although it has agreed settlements in various cases recently.
A French court imposed fines and civil damages of €4.5 bn ($5.1 bn) in February 2019, which UBS appealed. The Court of Appeal retried the case de novo in March 2021 and reduced the fine to €3.75 mn plus civil damages of €800 mn and confiscation of €1 bn. UBS has set aside reserves of €1.1 bn. The French Supreme Court overturned the penalties and damages in November 2023, and the case has been remanded to the Court of Appeal for a retrial.
Key Metric
AS OF 23 May 2025| $ mn | 1Q25 | Y24 | Y23 | Y22 | Y21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return On Equity | 7.9% | 6.0% | 38.4% | 13.0% | 12.4% |
| Total Revenues Margin | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% |
| Cost/Income | 82.2% | 84.8% | 95.0% | 72.1% | 73.6% |
| CET1 Ratio (Transitional) | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 15.0% |
| CET1 Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 15.0% |
| Leverage Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 181% | 188% | 216% | 164% | 155% |
| Impaired Loans (Gross)/Total Loans | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 09 Jun 2025We have Market perform recommendations on UBS AG (operating bank) and UBS Group (holding company) having revised the HoldCo recommendation from Underperform in August 2024. Its rescue and takeover of Credit Suisse in March 2023 was a seminal event that has had major consequences for UBS’s strategy and financial performance, as well as carrying substantial execution risk. However, the integration is on track, and UBS’s performance has been steadily improving. Capital, asset quality and liquidity all look strong, although Swiss regulatory capital requirements are set to increase significantly in coming years.
Recommendation Reviewed: June 09, 2025
Recommendation Changed: August 14, 2024
Who We Recommend
Sultanate of Oman
Korea Electric Power Corp.
Korea Gas Corp.
How may we help you?
Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Read this content. Log in or sign up.
If you are an investor with us, log in first to your Metrobank Wealth Manager account.
If you are not yet a client, we can help you by clicking the SIGN UP button.
Fundamental View
AS OF 23 May 2025Standard Chartered has been making good progress in the past few years, improving its asset quality and profitability and dealing with legacy litigation issues. Capital, funding and liquidity look solid.
However, tensions between China and the West, including reciprocal trade tariffs between the US and China, and global economic headwinds continue to cloud the near term outlook.
Its unusual business mix – headquartered and regulated in the UK but operating primarily in Asia, Africa and the Middle East – means it is well diversified but sensitive to geopolitical developments and emerging market volatility.
Business Description
AS OF 23 May 2025- Standard Chartered PLC is the holding company and listed entity of the group, in which Standard Chartered Bank is the main operating company.
- Although Standard Chartered is headquartered in London and therefore subject to UK banking regulation, its operations are mainly in Asia (Hong Kong is its biggest single market, as part of its Greater China & North Asia region), Africa and the Middle East. It is present in over 60 markets.
- It has the usual variety of businesses across these regions, including corporate and institutional banking, retail banking, commercial banking and private banking. It specialises in trade finance and cross-border cash management.
- The group announced a revised strategy in 2019 aimed at improving profitability after several years of de-risking, with a targeted return on tangible equity of 10%.
- It is classified as a G-SIB, with a regulatory capital buffer of 1%.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 23 May 2025Anti-government protests in Hong Kong, a slowing economy in China and a weak commercial real estate sector, and a US/China trade war have threatened the growth and stability of some of Standard Chartered’s key markets.
A number of Standard Chartered’s markets have underperformed in the past and have therefore been seen as turnaround stories, including India, Korea, Indonesia and the UAE.
The group has had to improve its AML and sanctions controls. In April 2019, it paid a $947 mn fine to US authorities over breaches of US sanctions and a £102 mn fine to the UK FCA for AML weaknesses.
Key Metric
AS OF 23 May 2025| $ mn | 1Q25 | Y24 | Y23 | Y22 | Y21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Equity | 12.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% |
| Total Revenues Margin | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| Cost/Income | 56.6% | 64.0% | 64.1% | 66.9% | 74.3% |
| CET1 Ratio (Transitional) | 13.8% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 14.1% |
| CET1 Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 13.8% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 13.9% | 14.1% |
| Leverage Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| Loan Impairment Charge | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Impaired Loans (Gross)/Total Loans | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 01 Jul 2025We revised our recommendation on Standard Chartered HoldCo senior from Underperform to Market perform on 26 April 2023, but we changed our recommendations on Tier 2 and AT1 from Fair to Rich on 10 January 2024. The changes reflect StanChart’s recent resilient performance, while taking into account the potential impact from US tariffs policies and exposure to China. Capital and liquidity ratios are robust, and profitability has improved significantly, but the bank continues to face geopolitical tensions inherent in its extensive operations in Hong Kong, China and the rest of Asia.
Recommendation Reviewed: July 01, 2025
Recommendation Changed: April 26, 2023
Who We Recommend
Sultanate of Oman
Korea Electric Power Corp.
Korea Gas Corp.
How may we help you?
Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Read this content. Log in or sign up.
If you are an investor with us, log in first to your Metrobank Wealth Manager account.
If you are not yet a client, we can help you by clicking the SIGN UP button.
Fundamental View
AS OF 19 May 2025BNP’s financial strength is based on its strong franchises across retail, commercial and investment banking, and its wide business and geographic diversification. Profitability is sound and fairly resilient, while asset quality has held up well.
Uncertainty around the financial health of the French sovereign and its ratings have the capacity to weigh on BNP’s stock price and its credit spreads.
Capital ratios are run tightly considering BNP’s balance sheet size, although this is in the context of its liquid and well-managed risk profile.
Business Description
AS OF 19 May 2025- BNP is one of the most diversified banking groups in Europe, having been created from a merger of the retail/commercial bank BNP and the corporate/investment bank Paribas in 2000.
- Domestic Markets (DM) comprises the Group's four retail banking networks in the eurozone and its three specialised business lines (including leasing and digital banking). The retail banks are French Retail Banking (FRB), BNL in Italy, BNP Paribas Fortis in Belgium and BGL BNP Paribas in Luxembourg.
- International Financial Services (IFS) includes consumer finance, asset management and private banking, and subsidiaries in non-eurozone countries, including TEB in Turkey and BNP Paribas Bank Polska.
- Corporate & Institutional Banking (CIB) is a global provider of financial solutions to corporate and institutional clients and includes BNP's extensive trading and investment banking businesses.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 19 May 2025BNP Paribas remains the subject of various claims concerning the Madoff matter; amongst other claims. Litigation provisions on the balance sheet stood at €841 mn at 30 June 2024. BNP says the latest claims against it stand at $1.1 bn as of June 2024.
If there was a negative rating action on the sovereign via an outlook change or notch downgrade, it is possible that BNP’s ratings will be impacted but it is difficult to say with any uncertainty. France represents around 30% of revenues and gross commitments on balance sheet and sovereign bond holdings are moderate; we discuss more below.
There were signs of modest asset quality deterioration in 1Q25, although the bank has not revised its guidance, which targets cost of risk of 40 bp in 2025 and 2026.
Key Metric
AS OF 19 May 2025| mn | Y21 | Y22 | Y23 | Y24 | 1Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return On Equity | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.1% |
| Total Revenues Margin | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% |
| Cost/Income | 67.3% | 60.7% | 62.6% | 61.8% | 63.7% |
| CET1 Ratio (Transitional) | 12.9% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 12.4% |
| CET1 Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 12.9% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 12.4% |
| Leverage Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 143.0% | 129.0% | 148.0% | 137.0% | 133.0% |
| Impaired Loans (Gross)/Total Loans | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | n/a |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 23 Jun 2025BNP remains one of the more diversified bank names in Europe. Its strong business and geographic diversification has helped it maintain good profitability and asset quality. It has extensive operations in Italy via its subsidiary BNL. Earnings have been resilient, with CIB a stand-out performer. Liquidity and funding metrics look sound. Asset quality has held up well, although an outlier is the group’s personal finance business. The latter is being restructured, to focus more on auto finance rather than personal lending. BNP’s capital position strengthened in 2024 but it will weaken in 2025/6. It is looking to expand now in insurance and asset management, likely to grow fee income. Despite global uncertainty, BNP has not amended any of its target for 2025/2026.
Recommendation Reviewed: June 23, 2025
Recommendation Changed: October 30, 2018
Who We Recommend
Sultanate of Oman
Korea Electric Power Corp.
Korea Gas Corp.