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Indicative Year-to-Maturity: 4.30%
Netflix Inc
- Sector: Media
- Sub Sector: Technology
- Region: US
- Bond: NFLX 4.875 30
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.30%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 28 Oct 2025- Netflix is one of the few clear winners in the industry’s transition to streaming, and we believe the group’s leading position will be bolstered in 2025/2026 as legacy media companies continue to rein in spending and international ambitions.
- From a financial perspective, we expect Netflix will deliver ~25% EBITDA growth in 2025 driven by a mix of subscriber growth, price hikes and margin expansion.
- Netflix’s financial policy is relatively conservative. While the company no longer targets $10-15 billion of gross debt, we view Netflix’s new financial policy as an evolution rather than a revolution and expect credit metrics to remain best in class.
Business Description
AS OF 28 Oct 2025- NFLX is the world's leading subscription streaming entertainment service with ~300+ mn paid streaming subs in 190+ countries around the world. NFLX's programming includes original & acquired TV series, documentaries and feature films.
- NFLX began expanding internationally with the launch of services in Canada (Sep 2010), followed by LatAm (Sep 2011), and the UK and Ireland (Jan 2012). NFLX launched services in 17 more markets at a measured pace through the end of 2015 before launching in the rest of the world in Jan 2016 (ex-China, N Korea, Syria, Crimea).
- As of FY24, Netflix's regional subscriber breakdown was as follows: (1) EMEA - 101.1 mn; (2) UCAN - 89.6 mn; (3) APAC - 57.5 mn and (4) LATAM - 53.3 mn.
- Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters are Co-CEOs, with Mr. Sarandos appointed to the position in July 2020 and Mr. Peters in January 2023. Co-founder Reed Hastings was appointed as executive chairman of the Board in January 2023.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 28 Oct 2025- M&A Risk: Warner Bros. Discovery is actively considering asset sales. We believe Netflix has no interest in linear TV assets, but could be open to a studio purchase under the right circumstances. Additionally, Netflix is in the early stages of an expansion into video games and has already acquired several studios.
- Increased Competition: Several large competitors including Amazon and Apple are increasingly leaning into DTC video offerings on a global basis. Heightened competition may result in rising churn & declining gross additions for NFLX.
- Market Saturation: Netflix is highly penetrated in the US market, so future growth will become increasingly dependent on price increases, uptake of the ad tier and success on the password sharing crackdown. The recent WWE and NFL deals also opens the door to higher-priced sports programming.
Key Metric
AS OF 28 Oct 2025| $ mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | LTM 3Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 29,698 | 31,616 | 33,723 | 39,001 | 43,379 |
| Revenue YoY % | 18.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 15.6% | 15.4% |
| EBITDA | 6,806 | 6,695 | 7,650 | 11,019 | 13,265 |
| EBITDA Growth | 33% | (2%) | 14% | 44% | 29% |
| Cash Content Expense | 17,469 | 16,660 | 13,140 | 17,003 | 17,209 |
| CFO - CapEx | (132) | 1,619 | 6,926 | 6,922 | 8,967 |
| Dividends/CFO-Capex | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| LTM CFO-CapEx to Debt | (0.9%) | 11.3% | 47.6% | 44.4% | 62.0% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 05 Dec 2025Netflix is one of the few clear winners in the industry’s transition to streaming, and we believe the group is well positioned to maintain its double-digit top line and profit growth in 2025 and 2026. The company’s gross leverage is already best in class at ~1.1x, and we expect Netflix can generate ~$9 billion of FCF in FY25 with a FCF to debt ratio in the ~60% area. However, Netflix’s plan to acquire Warner Bros marks an abrupt shift in its historical (and extremely successful) strategy focused on organic investment. While WB is admittedly a one of a kind asset, an acquisition of this magnitude would subject the company to significant integration/execution risks and raises questions about whether Netflix’s growth algorithm is running out of steam.
Recommendation Reviewed: December 05, 2025
Recommendation Changed: December 04, 2025
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Country Overview
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- The economy is diverse, with key sectors including manufacturing, agriculture, mining, and services.
- Indonesia is a significant producer of commodities like coal, palm oil, and natural gas.
Business Description
AS OF 28 May 2025Risk & Catalysts
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