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Region: Korea
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Fundamental View
AS OF 06 Sep 2024IBK benefits from a legally binding solvency guarantee from the Korean government and is viewed as a Korean quasi-sovereign issuer. The bank is listed, but remains majority state-owned. Previous governments had proposed privatizing it, but subsequent governments scrapped these plans. The government intends to keep its stake above 50%, and wants IBK to focus on lending to SMEs and provide earlier stage investment capital.
IBK manages the difficult feat of combining its policy role to support Korean SMEs with performance that compares creditably with Korean commercial banks.
Business Description
AS OF 04 Sep 2024- IBK was established under its own Act in 1961 to assist the development of Korea's small business sector. It claims a 23% market share in SME lending.
- It was listed in the early 1990s, but was re-nationalised following heavy losses in the Asian economic crisis of the late 1990s. It was re-listed in 2003, and is majority owned by the government which holds 59.5%; the National Pension Scheme holds 5.6%, and other policy banks have small stakes (7.2% by Korea Development Bank and 1.8% by the Export-Import Bank of Korea).
- Under Article 43 of the IBK Act, if the bank incurs losses they should be set against its reserves and "if the reserves are not sufficient the Government shall assume the remaining loss". Although this is a solvency guarantee and not an explicit guarantee for the timely payment of debts, we believe the Korean government will ensure IBK is in a position to make such timely payments.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 06 Sep 2024The bank’s ratings (Aa2/AA-/AA-) are closely tied to the Korean sovereign’s ratings (Aa2/AA/AA-) due to its quasi-sovereign status.
Its ratings and its default risk should therefore not be impacted by any deterioration in its financials, provided the government continues to inject new capital when needed, which it is expected to.
Its policy mandate requires it to use at least 70% of its funding for SMEs. Risks are mitigated by its granular SME exposures which are more than 80% secured, including guarantee from state-owned credit guarantee agencies. Korean governments have also always been quick to provide support including capital injections to IBK when needed, with the most recent injection of KRW 1.3 tn during the COVID.
Key Metric
AS OF 04 Sep 2024| KRW bn | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | 1H24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Provision Operating Profit / Average Assets | 1.33% | 1.30% | 1.49% | 1.59% | 2.78% |
| ROAA | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| ROAE | 6.4% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% |
| Provisions/Average Loans | 0.60% | 0.34% | 0.50% | 0.67% | 1.03% |
| Nonperforming Loans/Total Loans | 1.08% | 0.85% | 0.85% | 1.05% | 1.30% |
| CET1 Ratio | 11.1% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 11.6% |
| Total Equity/Total Assets | 6.95% | 6.92% | 6.79% | 7.10% | 7.06% |
| NIM | 1.55% | 1.51% | 1.78% | 1.79% | 1.73% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 23 Sep 2024IBK is not wholly government owned – 59.5% direct government ownership, 7.2% KDB and 1.8% KEXIM – but is a policy bank benefiting from a Korean government solvency guarantee. For a policy bank it also has a fairly good track record and manages the difficult feat of combining its policy role to support Korean SMEs with performance that compares creditably with Korean commercial banks. As the leading lender to Korea’s medium and small businesses, IBK plays a key role in the country’s economy, enhanced by the longstanding objective of numerous administrations to achieve a more diversified economy less reliant on the “chaebol”. Successive Korean governments have always been quick to provide support including capital injections to the policy banks when needed.
Recommendation Reviewed: September 23, 2024
Recommendation Changed: March 17, 2017
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Fundamental View
AS OF 22 Aug 2024Shinhan FG was the best-managed of the large Korean financial groups over many years. During the Asian Financial Crisis, it took advantage of the opportunity to acquire competitors and other businesses, increasing its scale and expanding its business lines.
Its performance has been more variable in the past few years. After a bumpy 2020, it had a better FY21 and FY22, thanks to rising interest rates. However, operating performance turned weak again in FY23. 1H24 showed some recovery.
Credit costs have increased mainly due to real estate project financing, but are within our expectations. Capital is comfortable.
Business Description
AS OF 22 Aug 2024- Shinhan Financial Group (Shinhan FG) is one of Korea's most diversified financial groups and the holding company of the second largest Korean bank - Shinhan Bank. It also has credit cards, securities, asset management and insurance subsidiaries.
- Shinhan Bank was set up in 1982 with seed capital from Korean residents in Japan. It was more professionally managed than the heavily politicised older banks and came through the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis in relatively good shape, taking the opportunity to acquire the larger and much longer-established Chohung Bank in 2003.
- In 2007, it made another timely acquisition, buying LG Card from its creditors after it failed during the 2003 Korean consumer lending crisis. Shinhan Card is the largest card issuer in Korea.
- Shinhan is also looking for overseas opportunities where growth is strong and Korean businesses have a presence, with a focus on Vietnam (where Shinhan Card also bought a consumer finance business in 2019) and Indonesia.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 22 Aug 2024As one of Korea’s “Big Four” financial groups, we believe Shinhan FG would likely receive governmental support if needed.
Asset quality pressure has been rising from domestic real estate project financing and overseas real estate investments, with credit costs rising from very low levels. Management expects credit costs to slightly improve in 2H24, but additional provisions may still be needed due to regulators’ guidance for financial institutions to take a more conservative stance on provisioning.
NIMs fell in 2Q24 with inevitably further downward pressure in 2H, given the potential policy rate cuts and LCR regulation adjustments.
Key Metric
AS OF 22 Aug 2024| KRW bn | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | 1H24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Provision Profit ROA | 1.09% | 1.11% | 1.10% | 3.89% | 1.38% |
| ROA | 0.60% | 0.66% | 0.72% | 0.66% | 0.79% |
| ROE | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 10.7% |
| Provisions/Average Loans | 0.43% | 0.28% | 0.34% | 0.78% | 0.47% |
| NPL Ratio | 0.49% | 0.39% | 0.41% | 0.56% | 0.68% |
| CET1 Ratio | 12.90% | 13.10% | 12.79% | 13.17% | 13.05% |
| Equity/Assets | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% |
| Net Interest Margin | 1.80% | 1.81% | 1.96% | 5.91% | 1.97% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 29 Oct 2024We have a Market perform recommendation on Shinhan FG and the bank. Shinhan FG is one of the four nation-wide commercial banking groups in Korea, with a leading credit card arm. It had over many years the best operating track record, but now we see its operating performance as in line with its peers. FY23 was challenging, as topline revenue growth was more than offset by increasing operating expenses and provisions. 9M24 performance has been better, but non-interest income growth was tepid weighed down by Shinhan Securities. The group’s CET 1 ratio at 3Q24 was just above its target 13%, which management views as an appropriate level.
Recommendation Reviewed: October 29, 2024
Recommendation Changed: September 22, 2020
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.The Export-Import Bank of Korea
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Region: Korea
- Bond: EIBKOR 5.125 33
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.55%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 14 Aug 2024- KEXIM is a pure policy bank that is directly and indirectly wholly owned by the government of the Republic of Korea, which is obliged under Article 37 of the Export-Import Bank of Korea Act to fund any losses that cannot be covered by the bank’s reserves.
- While this is a solvency guarantee and does not explicitly guarantee the timely repayment of debt, we view it as inconceivable that the Korean authorities would fail to provide KEXIM with support in a timely manner, should this be needed, given its crucial policy role and close government links.
Business Description
AS OF 14 Aug 2024- KEXIM was set up in 1976 to support Korean companies in their overseas business through export credit guarantee programs, as well as providing finance for imports and for overseas investment. It provides funding for both short term trade and long term investment, and manages two government-entrusted funds: the Economic Development Cooperation Fund (EDCF), a Korean official development assistance program, and the Inter-Korean Cooperation Fund (IKCF), an economic cooperation program to promote exchanges with North Korea. It is also a conduit through which the government doled out COVID-19 assistance to affected companies.
- Till 2030, KEXIM aims to preferentially focus on seven sectors (hydrogen energy, wind and solar power, rechargeable battery and energy storage systems (ESS), future mobility, 5G and next-generation semiconductors, pharmaceutical and healthcare, and digital technology and cultural content) which are considered new growth drivers of the Korean economy. It has historically focused on the shipbuilding and engineering & construction industries.
- KEXIM is 100% owned by the Korean government: 73% directly and the remainder through stakes held by the Bank of Korea (8%) and Korea Development Bank (19%). In contrast to peer policy banks IBK and KDB, KEXIM has remained more consistently a policy bank but its role has been adjusted to ensure it complements rather than competes with the Korean commercial banks.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 14 Aug 2024- Previous Korean governments have made moves to privatise the other policy banks, but KEXIM has retained its policy bank role and government ownership, which are not likely to change.
- Korea’s shipbuilders have long been the largest users of KEXIM’s services. Losses on exposure to the sector, in particular Daewoo Shipbuilding (DSME), pushed KEXIM into the red in 2016 but the government injected capital and its condition has recovered.
- Together with KDB, KEXIM has played a key role in helping corporate Korea survive the COVID-19 induced crisis.
- KEXIM’s ratings are the same as the Korea’s sovereign ratings, which are now all in the AA range.
Key Metric
AS OF 14 Aug 2024| KRW bn | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Impairment Operating Profit / Average Assets | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| ROAA | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| ROAE | 3.2% | 0.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.7% |
| Provisions/Average Loans | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Nonperforming Loans/Total Loans | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| CET1 Ratio | 12.9% | 13.4% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 13.0% |
| Total Equity/Total Assets | 14.9% | 14.8% | 15.1% | 12.6% | 14.3% |
| Net Interest Margin (NIR/Ave Assets) | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 09 Oct 2024KEXIM is a wholly government owned policy bank benefiting from a Korean government solvency guarantee. It plays a key role in financing large-ticket exports in particular ships and large-scale overseas engineering projects. Its credit exposures include some industry and borrower concentrations especially to Korea’s shipbuilders and its financial performance has at times suffered. But the Korean government has always acted in a timely manner to endure its solvency, and with this strong backing we view it as a sound credit. We view its secondary levels as in line with where we would expect it to trade, and so continue with our Market perform recommendation.
Recommendation Reviewed: October 09, 2024
Recommendation Changed: September 22, 2020
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Fundamental View
AS OF 18 Jun 2024KORGAS is Korea’s sole integrated gas utility company and a quasi-sovereign credit in Korea with an effective monopoly over the exploration & production (E&P), procurement, storage & production, transmission and wholesale distribution of natural gas.
Its credit profile is underpinned by its dominant market position in Korea’s natural gas and hydrogen utility market, and the strong support from the Korean government. This partly mitigates its delayed and incomplete pass-through of gas procurement costs when natural gas price surges, such as in FY22.
We expect its credit profile to improve in FY24 supported by lower natural gas procurement costs and higher gas tariffs, which would partially mitigate concerns over its larger capex planned for FY24 and FY25.
Business Description
AS OF 19 Jun 2024- KORGAS is 54.6% directly/indirectly owned by the Korean Government (Central Government 26.2%, KEPCO 20.5%, Local Government 7.9%). It is Korea's sole integrated gas utility company with an effective monopoly over the exploration & production (E&P), procurement, storage & production, transmission and wholesale distribution of natural gas. It is crucial to Korea's green transition plan to increase LNG generation by 56% by 2036 from 2022. In addition, KORGAS was licensed as Korea's sole hydrogen distribution agency in 2020.
- KORGAS is one of the largest LNG importer in the world and sells imported natural gas to domestic companies in South Korea. As of YE23, KORGAS operates 77 storage tanks at 5 LNG terminals in Incheon, Pyeong Taek, Tong Yeong, Sam Cheok and Jeju. It has 5,178 km of pipeline network nationwide, and is looking to construction additional 440 km by 2026.
- The Korea natural gas industry is divided into wholesale and retail segments. KORGAS is the only wholesaler in Korea, and the regional city gas companies are in charge of supplying natural gas to retail consumers through regional retail pipelines. KORGAS sold 47% of its gas sales to domestic LNG-fired power generation companies (gencos), including the genco subsidiaries of KEPCO and independent power producers (IPPs), and the remaining 53% to city gas companies and heating companies in FY23.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 18 Jun 2024Key risks to KORGAS’ standalone credit profile include: (1) Significant depreciation of the KRW against the $ ; (2) Delayed and/or smaller-than-expected retail tariffs hikes; and (3) higher-than-expected capex and investments related to Korea’s green transition.
However, we do not foresee these risks to materially impair KORGAS’ ability to access funding, credit rating and overall credit profile as we expect KORGAS to remain as the sole integrated gas utility company and continue to receive extremely strong financial support from the Korean government.
Key Metric
AS OF 18 Jun 2024| KRW bn | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 76.6% | 75.7% | 75.8% | 81.3% | 80.7% |
| Net Debt to Book Cap | 75.6% | 74.6% | 74.2% | 79.8% | 79.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 327.2% | 312.4% | 313.3% | 434.4% | 418.0% |
| Gross Leverage | 8.2x | 9.4x | 9.1x | 9.9x | 11.6x |
| Net Leverage | 8.1x | 9.3x | 8.9x | 9.7x | 11.4x |
| Interest Coverage | 3.9x | 3.4x | 4.8x | 5.1x | 2.2x |
| EBITDA Margin | 13.0% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 04 Jul 2024We maintain our O/P recommendation KORGAS. We expect KORGAS’ credit profile to improve in 2H24 supported by higher tariffs and normalizing natural gas procurement costs. We expect KORGAS, which is the sole integrated natural gas utility company in South Korea to continue enjoying solid government support. We view its $ bonds as attractive compared to lower rated Chinese SOEs, BBB-rated low beta Korean corporates and other Korean quasi-sovereigns. In particular, we like its newly issued Jul-29 for the high on-market coupon; for investors looking for defensive short-dated carry, we also like its 27s.
Recommendation Reviewed: July 04, 2024
Recommendation Changed: June 27, 2023
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BMO Financial
Hyundai Motor
Toronto Dominion
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Fundamental View
AS OF 22 Mar 2024KEPCO is the sole integrated electricity utility company and a quasi-sovereign credit in Korea. Its credit profile is underpinned by the extremely high level of government support due to its critical policy role in ensuring the nation’s stable power supply.
KEPCO’s operating and net losses narrowed in FY23 thanks to electricity tariff hikes alongside lower fuel costs and its EBITDA turned around.
Its total debt/EBITDA and net debt/EBITDA was elevated at 18.2x/17.7x as of YE23 due to high debt burdens, and we expect its leverage metrics to improve from FY23 but remain at 7-9x due to large capex planned in FY24 and FY25 to develop its nuclear, LNG and renewable capacities.
Business Description
AS OF 22 Mar 2024- KEPCO is a quasi-sovereign credit and the sole integrated electric utilities company in Korea. The company was founded in 1898, 51% majority owned and controlled by the Korean government and Korean Development Bank, and listed on the Korea Stock Exchange/NYSE in 1989/1994.
- KEPCO is the sole provider of electricity transmission & distribution infrastructure and services, and controls ~60% of the nation's installed generation capacity and ~70% of power generation through its six wholly owned gencos: Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP), Korea South-East Power (KOEN), Korea Western Power (KOWEPO), Korea East-West Power (EWP), Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO), and Korea Southern Power (KOSPO). In addition, KHNP is the sole nuclear power generation company in Korea. In FY23, KEPCO purchase ~65% of wholesale power from its genco subsidiaries and ~30% from independent power plants. On a consolidated basis, electricity transmission & distribution accounts for over 95% of KEPCO's annual revenues.
- KEPCO is a key implementation entity to carry out the Korean government's energy transition plan responding to climate change. KEPCO plans to fully stop coal generation by 2050. In order to achieve that, KEPCO plans to reduce its coal generation capacity to 23 GW in FY30 (FY23: 32.6 GW), and grow its renewable capacity to 37 GW in FY30 (FY23: 6.6 GW).
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 22 Mar 2024Key risks to KEPCO’s standalone credit profile include: 1) higher-than-expected fuel costs due to continued increase of international prices of coal, natural gas and oil as well as a significant depreciation of the KRW against the $; (2) inability to pass through high fuel costs due to insufficient tariff adjustment; and (3) higher-than-expected capex and investments related to Korea’s green transition.
However, we do not foresee these risks to materially impair KEPCO’s ability to access funding, credit rating and overall credit profile as we expect KEPCO to continue receiving an extremely high level of support from the Korean government.
KEPCO’s exposure to nuclear power operations and coal-fired power generation may post ESG concerns for investors with an ESG mandate. But this risk exposure is partially alleviated by the company’s gradual shift towards renewable energy.
Key Metric
AS OF 22 Mar 2024| KRW bn | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 55.2% | 55.3% | 60.1% | 76.9% | 80.5% |
| Net Debt to Book Cap | 54.0% | 54.1% | 58.7% | 75.3% | 78.4% |
| Debt/Total Equity | 1.2x | 1.2x | 1.5x | 3.3x | 4.1x |
| Debt/Total Assets | 42.9% | 43.0% | 46.7% | 59.6% | 64.3% |
| Gross Leverage | 8.7x | 5.6x | 16.5x | -6.9x | 18.2x |
| Net Leverage | 8.5x | 5.5x | 16.1x | -6.8x | 17.7x |
| Interest Coverage | 4.8x | 7.8x | 3.1x | -7.2x | 1.9x |
| EBITDA Margin | 16.5% | 26.5% | 9.8% | (28.3%) | 9.6% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 22 Mar 2024KEPCO is the sole electricity distributor and transmitter in South Korea, undertaking irreplaceable policy role. Its credit profile is underpinned by excellent government support thanks to its strategical role. KEPCO enjoys strong access to the onshore and offshore funding channels, mitigating its elevated leverage and insufficient cash coverage for short-term debt. KEPCO is in the process of implementing a financial improvement plan and aim to restore its financial soundness by 2027. Its $ bonds provide attractive yield pick-ups compared to lower-rated Chinese SOEs and BBB-rated low beta Korean corporates, in our view.
Recommendation Reviewed: March 22, 2024
Recommendation Changed: July 24, 2023
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