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Region: China
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Region: China
- Credit Rating (Moody’s/Standard & Poor’s/Fitch): M/P
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Fundamental View
AS OF 18 May 2023Our credit view on ICBCAS (ratings: A1/A/A) is based on the strong likelihood of state support in the event of distress, given its large size, systemic importance and majority government ownership.
Its systemic importance is enhanced by its status as China’s largest lender, and it plays a key role in financing the country’s economic development.
The Big 4 banks are generally more prudently managed than their more aggressive smaller competitors, but they are also expected to support the real economy in a downturn.
Business Description
AS OF 18 May 2023- With total assets in excess of RMB 42 tn, ICBCAS is the world's largest bank by assets and is classified as a G-SIB with a capital surcharge of 1.5%.
- ICBCAS was originally set up in 1984 to provide loans to China's large state-owned industrial corporations.
- ICBCAS was recapitalised in 2005 with an injection of $15 bn, following which it was listed in Hong Kong and Shanghai in 2006.
- The government owns a majority of ICBCAS's shares through Central Huijin and the Ministry of Finance, which own stakes of 35% and 31% respectively.
- In addition to a strong onshore presence, ICBC has an extensive international network as well.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 18 May 2023China’s sovereign ratings (A1/A+/A+) underpin ICBCAS’s credit standing; any deterioration in the sovereign ratings could negatively affect ICBCAS’s ratings.
Asset quality risk remains as China’s economic momentum slows and the property sector remains under stress. Transparency is limited and credit risks are hard to assess in China as these often depend on the government’s willingness to socialise losses.
ICBCAS is managed on commercial terms but the government may call on it to perform “national service” that overrides profitability considerations. Its profitability has recently been impacted by its social duties to support the real economy including stepping up lending at lower rates, but we do not regard such actions as credit-negative as they reflect the close government links that also underpin the bank’s credit standing.
Key Metrics
AS OF 18 May 2023| RMB bn | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | 1Q23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP ROA | 1.97% | 1.87% | 1.82% | 1.61% | 1.67% |
| Reported ROA | 1.08% | 1.00% | 1.02% | 0.97% | 0.89% |
| Reported ROE | 13.1% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 11.2% |
| Total Equity/Total Assets | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% |
| CET1 Ratio | 13.2% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 14.0% | 13.7% |
| NPL Ratio | 1.43% | 1.58% | 1.42% | 1.38% | 1.38% |
| Provisions/Average Loans | 1.11% | 1.15% | 1.03% | 0.83% | 1.09% |
| Loan Deposit Ratio | 73% | 74% | 78% | 78% | 77% |
CreditSights View
AS OF 24 May 2023ICBCAS is the largest bank by assets in the world and has a very strong franchise in China. Its majority government ownership adds to its systemically important status – we view ICBC as a very strong and stable credit. Its profitability has recently been impacted by its social duties to support the real economy including stepping up lending at lower rates, but we do not regard such actions as credit-negative as they reflect the close government links that also underpin the bank’s credit standing. Its 1Q23 operating performance lagged its peers and it is the only Big 5 bank that saw a decline in operating income in 1Q23. Capital ratios remained the highest among Chinese banks.
Recommendation Reviewed: May 24, 2023
Recommendation Changed: July 16, 2021
Who We Recommend
Bank Rakyat Indonesia
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
State Bank of India
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Bank of China
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Country: China
- Region: China
- Credit Rating (Moody’s/Standard & Poor’s/Fitch): M/P
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Fundamental View
AS OF 18 May 2023The Bank of China (BCHINA; ratings: A1/A/A) is one of the Big 4 banks in China. Its subsidiary, BOC Hong Kong, is one of the major banks in Hong Kong.
BCHINA’s systemic importance is enhanced by the leading role it plays in China’s international trade and investment and strong government links.
BCHINA’s financial metrics are a little weaker than ICBCAS and CCB due to its larger overseas exposure, but the Big 4 banks have generally been managed more prudently compared to the smaller and more aggressive joint stock banks.
Business Description
AS OF 18 May 2023- While its origins date back to China's last imperial dynasty, BCHINA was formally established in 1912 and has played the role of China's international bank for more than a century. Its operations outside mainland China include its 66%-owned subsidiary Bank of China (HK) Ltd.
- After 1949, BCHINA became a state entity but was focused on FX and financing of foreign trade. It was set on a path of commercialisation in 1994 but only became a corporate entity in 2003 prior to its listings in HK and Shanghai in 2006. BCHINA is controlled by the government via a 64% stake held by Central Huijin.
- BCHINA was effectively insolvent in the late 1990s and the removal of NPLs to an AMC in 1999 did not fully deal with its legacy bad loans. In 2003, the bank received another $22.5 bn capital injection, paving the way for BOC's HK listing in 2006.
- BCHINA is a G-SIB with a capital surcharge of 1.5%. BOCHK is a D-SIB in HK and is the holding company for all of BCHINA's Southeast Asian operations excluding Singapore.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 18 May 2023China’s sovereign ratings (A1/A+/A+) are a key factor behind BCHINA’s credit standing.
BCHINA is managed on commercial terms, but fulfilling the government’s socioeconomic objectives may at times override profitability considerations and require the bank to perform “national service”. We would not regard such actions as credit-negative as they reflect close government links that also underpin the bank’s credit standing.
BCHINA’s overseas footprint has to some extent offset the onshore NIM pressure and led to a stabler NIM compared to peers in FY22. However, as overseas funding costs go up, its NIM will also be under pressure in FY23.
Key Metrics
AS OF 18 May 2023| RMB bn | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | 1Q23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP ROA | 1.60% | 1.55% | 1.48% | 1.40% | 1.52% |
| Credit Costs | 0.82% | 0.87% | 0.70% | 0.63% | 0.73% |
| Reported ROA | 0.92% | 0.87% | 0.89% | 0.85% | 0.83% |
| Reported ROE | 11.5% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 11.1% |
| Total Equity/Total Assets | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% |
| CET1 Ratio | 11.3% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 11.6% |
| NPL Ratio | 1.36% | 1.46% | 1.33% | 1.32% | 1.18% |
| Loan-Deposit Ratio | 83% | 84% | 87% | 87% | 85% |
CreditSights View
AS OF 15 Jun 2023BCHINA is one of the Big 4 banks (the 4th-largest by assets) with a reasonable capital stack and sufficient liquidity. Its majority government ownership and systemic importance also assures it of strong state support. Its NIM and profitability has trailed its more domestically-focused peers due to higher cost-income ratios of its overseas operations, but its credit costs are also the lowest among the Big 5 banks. Its overseas footprint has to some extent offset the onshore NIM pressure and led to a stabler NIM compared to peers in FY22. However, as overseas funding costs go up, its NIM will also be under pressure in FY23.
Recommendation Reviewed: June 15, 2023
Recommendation Changed: July 16, 2021
Who We Recommend
Bank Rakyat Indonesia
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
State Bank of India
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.China Construction Bank
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Region: China
- Credit Rating (Moody’s/Standard & Poor’s/Fitch): M/P
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Fundamental View
AS OF 18 May 2023Our credit view on China Construction Bank (CCB; ratings: A1/A/A) is based on the strong likelihood of state support in event of distress, given its large size, systemic importance and majority government ownership.
Its systemic importance is enhanced by the key role it plays in financing China’s economic development and its close government links (and large government shareholding).
The Big 4 banks are generally more prudently managed than their more aggressive smaller competitors, but they are also expected to support the real economy in a downturn.
Business Description
AS OF 18 May 2023- CCB is the second-largest of the Big 4 Chinese banks and is classified as a G-SIB requiring an additional capital surcharge of 1.0%.
- CCB was originally formed in 1954 as a subsidiary of China's MOF to disburse funds intended for fixed asset investment. In the early 1980s, it started taking deposits and making loans outside of direct MOF control. In 1998, its NPLs were transferred to Cinda AMC in exchange for RMB 247 bn of Cinda bonds.
- The bank was re-capitalised again in 2003 with an injection of $23 bn by the PBOC. It was listed in 2005 but the Chinese government remains its controlling shareholder with a 57% stake held through state-owned Central Huijin.
- The bank owns CCB Asia and CCB International in Hong Kong as well as operations in a number of countries.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 18 May 2023China’s sovereign ratings (A1/A+/A+) underpin CCB’s credit standing; any deterioration in the sovereign ratings could negatively affect CCB’s ratings.
CCB’s loan growth has been rapid to support the post-COVID economy, but this has also led to increasing pressure on its capital ratios.
CCB may be asked by the government to perform “national service” that overrides profitability considerations, e.g. supporting troubled property developers and extending loans at lower rates during the pandemic. We would not regard such actions as credit-negative as they reflect close government links that also underpin the bank’s credit standing.
Key Metrics
AS OF 18 May 2023| RMB bn | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | 1Q23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPOP ROA | 2.01% | 1.96% | 1.87% | 1.65% | 1.74% |
| Reported ROA | 1.11% | 1.02% | 1.04% | 1.00% | 1.00% |
| Reported ROE | 13.2% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 12.9% |
| Equity/Assets | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% |
| CET1 Ratio | 13.9% | 13.6% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 13.2% |
| NPL Ratio | 1.42% | 1.56% | 1.42% | 1.38% | 1.38% |
| Provisions/Average Loans | 1.14% | 1.19% | 0.95% | 0.77% | 0.94% |
| Loan-Deposit Ratio | 82% | 81% | 84% | 85% | 82% |
CreditSights View
AS OF 24 May 2023CCB is the 2nd-largest of the Chinese state-owned commercial banks and benefits from a strong franchise and close state links. It has the second strongest capital ratios among Chinese banks, just behind ICBC. Its profitability has recently been impacted by its social duties to support the real economy including stepping up lending at lower rates, but we do not regard such actions as credit-negative as they reflect the close government links that also underpin the bank’s credit standing. Its loan growth has been rapid to support the post-COVID economy, but this has also led to increasing pressure on its capital ratios. Profit growth was weak in 1Q23 and will continue to be challenging in FY23. 1Q23 fee income growth though was well above its peers.
Recommendation Reviewed: May 24, 2023
Recommendation Changed: July 16, 2021
Who We Recommend
Bank Rakyat Indonesia
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
State Bank of India
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Fundamental View
AS OF 21 Apr 2023We maintain our Market perform recommendation on Sinopec. Sinopec Group holds a 68%-stake in Sinopec Corp, which contributed ~98% of the group’s total revenue in FY21. Hence, we use Sinopec Corp as a key proxy for the group.
Sinopec Corp’s cash flow generation weakened and leverage edged higher albeit still moderate in FY22, as EBITDA margins declined. We expect Sinopec Corp to generate stronger EBITDA and FCF in FY23, and improve its debt metrics.
We think Sinopec is not cheap following its COVID reopening triggered China credit rally in mid-November. That said, we expect high-grade and stable SOE credits, like Sinopec, to remain supported and perform in line with the ADIG Index against the backdrop of a still fragile global risk sentiment post the banking sector turmoil.
Business Description
AS OF 21 Apr 2023- Sinopec Group is a Chinese integrated oil and gas (O&G) company and is one of the largest globally & domestically, measured in terms of volume, refined product sales and number of service stations. We use Sinopec Corp as a proxy for Sinopec Group as it contributed to ~98% of its FY21 revenue. In terms of Sinopec Corp's segmental breakdown, refining and marketing contributed 57% of total revenue from external sales, chemicals represented 14%, and E&P contributed 6% in FY22.
- The group has historically relied on O&G imports as the main feedstock into its core refining business. Depending on the prices of their feedstock and product mix, this can arise in differing profitability and refining margins for the group. Sinopec Group's refining processes and marketing network are more essential to smooth its profitability and refining margins. The group also engages in some commodity hedging to mitigate extreme feedstock price fluctuations.
- As of FY22, Sinopec Corp held a total of 1,961 mn bbl and 8,806 bcf of crude and natural gas reserves. Sinopec process 242 mn tonnes of crude and produced 140 mn tonnes of refined oil products in FY22. It also has 9 hydrogen supply centers as of YE22. On the retail side, Sinopec Corp had 30,808 service stations under its brand as of YE22.
- Sinopec Corp is currently listed in the Hong Kong and Shanghai Stock Exchange. As at 21 April 2023, Sinopec Corp's market capitalization stood at RMB 705.6 bn.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 21 Apr 2023Vulnerability to global and domestic oil and gas (O&G) prices is exacerbated by the company’s heavier reliance on imported oil for refining. This exposes the company to higher exogenous factors/geopolitical risks where it imported ~86% of its crude oil used for refining and 45-50% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Policy risk from strict regulations over domestic O&G prices, exploration licensing, and import and export quotas could materially impact all three key business streams in Sinopec’s integrated business model.
The company’s strong reliance on the sales of crude oil may result in a weak ESG score as the environmentally damaging and high carbon intensity nature of the business conflicts with multiple ESG mandates. This potentially subjects Sinopec to elevated energy transition risk. Sinopec has taken various measures to mitigate this by expanding into renewable energy sources (ie. Wind, Solar and Biomass), implementing low-carbon production and operations (via decarbonizing technologies such as Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS)) and ramping up on its hydrogen segment, where it aims to be the largest hydrogen company in China.
Key Metrics
AS OF 21 Apr 2023| RMB bn | FY22 | FY21 | FY20 | FY19 | FY18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Debt/Capitalization | 27.6% | 25.6% | 25.3% | 27.8% | 16.4% |
| Net Debt/Capitalization | 16.4% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 17.3% | 0.1% |
| Total Debt/Total Equity | 38.1% | 34.5% | 33.8% | 38.6% | 19.6% |
| Total Debt/Total Assets | 18.3% | 16.7% | 17.2% | 19.2% | 10.6% |
| Total Debt/EBITDA | 1.5x | 1.2x | 1.5x | 1.6x | 0.7x |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.9x | 0.4x | 0.6x | 1.0x | 0.0x |
| EBITDA/Gross Interest | 16.1x | 20.1x | 16.8x | 12.9x | 35.7x |
| EBITDA Margin | 7.0% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% |
CreditSights View
AS OF 28 Mar 2023We maintain our Market perform recommendation on Sinopec. Sinopec Group holds a 68%-stake in Sinopec Corp, which contributed ~98% of the group’s total revenue in FY21. Hence, we use Sinopec Corp as a key proxy for the group. Sinopec Corp’s cash flow generation weakened and leverage edged higher albeit still moderate in FY22, as EBITDA margins declined. We expect Sinopec Corp to generate stronger EBITDA and FCF in FY23, and improve its debt metrics. We think Sinopec is not cheap following its COVID reopening triggered China credit rally in mid-November. That said, we expect high-grade and stable SOE credits, like Sinopec, to remain supported and perform in line with the ADIG Index against the backdrop of a still fragile global risk sentiment post the banking sector turmoil.
Recommendation Reviewed: March 28, 2023
Recommendation Changed: May 03, 2021
Who We Recommend
Bank Rakyat Indonesia
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
State Bank of India
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Fundamental View
AS OF 18 Apr 2023We expect CNOOC’s revenue growth to decelerate in FY23 as crude and natural gas prices have started to ease in 4Q22. That said, we expect CNOOC to maintain its cost leadership and a stable EBITDA margin.
We believe CNOOC is well positioned in terms of cost management, and we expect the company to continue to post strong operating profits in FY23 against the still elevated oil and gas prices.
We expect CNOOC to continue to benefit from the implied government support due the company’s critical role in China’s offshore upstream value chain and safeguarding China’s energy security.
Business Description
AS OF 18 Apr 2023- CNOOC is an upstream oil and gas (O&G) company, and is one of the three Chinese national oil companies (NOCs). Globally, it is also among one of the largest exploration and production (E&P) firms in terms of assets/reserves and production. CNOOC engages in E&P independently or through production sharing contacts (PSCs) with foreign/domestic partners. CNOOC is also the largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer in China, where it accounted for ~44% of total domestic imports.
- As of 31 December 2022, 69% of CNOOC's revenue is derived from customers in China. Globally, CNOOC has exposure toIraq, Russia, Canada, the United States of America, the United Kingdom, Nigeria, Uganda, Argentina, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. On foreign exchange risk, CNOOC is primarily exposed to the $ and RMB currencies.
- CNOOC produced 623.9 mmboe of O&G output in FY22. The company had a net proved reserves of about 6.24 bn BOE, of which, around 49.9% of its net proved reserves are currently undeveloped.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 18 Apr 2023Vulnerability and exposure to global/domestic oil benchmark, which may fluctuate in response to changes in supply and demand, market uncertainty and other exogenous factors beyond the company’s control.
CNOOC’s business is capital intensive as it has to regularly incur capex spending on acquisitions/JVs, exploration and production, and oilfield development to maintain its proved O&G reserve in offshore China.
Policy risk from strict regulations over O&G prices, E&P licensing, and import/export quotas. CNOOC is also exposed to geopolitical risk and it is included in the US DoD military and US Entity blacklists. The spillover risk of Russian sanctions and potential US secondary sanctions could affect its business operations.
CNOOC’s high reliance on crude oil sales may result in elevated energy transition risk and conflict with ESG mandates for its carbon-intensive nature.
Key Metrics
AS OF 21 Apr 2023| RMB bn | FY18 | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 25.3% | 26.1% | 24.9% | 21.9% | 18.3% |
| Net Debt/Capitalization | 23.2% | 17.8% | 13.5% | 9.0% | 1.8% |
| Debt to Equity | 33.9% | 35.4% | 33.1% | 28.1% | 22.5% |
| Total Debt/Total Assets | 20.8% | 20.9% | 19.9% | 17.2% | 14.5% |
| Total Debt/EBITDA | 1.1x | 1.1x | 1.5x | 0.8x | 0.5x |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 1.0x | 0.7x | 0.8x | 0.3x | 0.0x |
| EBITDA/Gross Interest | 23.8x | 24.3x | 15.9x | 31.1x | 51.1x |
| EBITDA Margin | 56.8% | 63.7% | 61.8% | 66.7% | 61.9% |
CreditSights View
AS OF 18 Apr 2023We affirm our Market perform recommendation on CNOOC (A1/A+/A+; Market perform) with a preference for the short-end (<5Y to maturity). Similar to other NOC (Chinese national oil) credits such as Sinopec (A1/A+/A+; Market perform) and CNPC (A1/A+/NR; Market perform), we think that CNOOC $ bonds are not cheap after tightening by an average of 34 bp since the COVID reopening triggered a China credit rally in mid-November. We continue to prefer short-end (<5Y to maturity) CNOOC $ bonds given its relatively flat spread/yield curve. CNOOC's belly (5-10Y maturity) is on average 44 bp wider than the short-end, a smaller yield pick-up compared to China A-rated peers (58 bp) and Asia A-rated peers (48 bp).Â
Recommendation Reviewed: April 18, 2023
Recommendation Changed: May 03, 2021
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Bank Rakyat Indonesia
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
State Bank of India
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Fundamental View
AS OF 23 Jun 2022The Export-Import Bank of China (CHEXIM) was founded in 1994 under the direct authority and ownership of the State Council. Its credit standing is based on its role as a quasi-sovereign policy bank that provides financial support for China’s foreign economic, trade and investment development as well as other strategic overseas investments.
CHEXIM is 89%-owned by Buttonwood Investment Holding Company, a wholly-owned investment platform of China’s FX regulator, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), and an 11% stake is held by the Ministry of Finance, making it a wholly-owned, quasi-sovereign entity.
It is rated in line with the Chinese sovereign, at A1/A+/A+, which imputes a very high level of state support in a timely manner if required.
Business Description
AS OF 23 Jun 2022- China's economic reforms began in the late 1970s but it was only in 1994 that the country's large state-owned banks were set on a path of commercialisation. The policy functions of the commercial banks were transferred to three policy banks, namely, China Development Bank (CDB), the Export-Import Bank of China (CHEXIM) and Agricultural Development Bank of China (ADBC).
- CHEXIM's original mandate was to support budding Chinese exporters looking to expand internationally but in recent years its role has expanded to a broader role in financing overseas infrastructure investments and strategic projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative, as well as domestic development projects.
- The quasi-sovereign policy bank has 32 domestic branches, 1 overseas branch in Paris and representative offices in Hong Kong, St. Petersburg (Russia), Northern & Western Africa, and Southern & Eastern Africa. It also has correspondent banking relationships with 1,105 banks in 145 countries and regions. It had over 4,000 employees at end-2021.
- Besides using its own capital, CHEXIM on-lends funds borrowed from foreign governments. CHEXIM takes no credit risk in these on-lending activities, which are off-balance sheet items.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 23 Jun 2022As a quasi-sovereign issuer, CHEXIM is rated in line with the Chinese government at A1/A+/A+. Any downgrades in China’s sovereign rating will have a negative impact on its credit ratings.
CHEXIM’s financial disclosure is very thin relative to other banks, and annual reports are much delayed in their publishing. From what is available, it is clear that interest margins and profitability are lower than CDB and other commercial banks even in normal years, and higher credit risks have given rise to material impairment losses as a proportion of PPOP (50-90% of PPOP in normal years). The NPL ratio is not disclosed every year.
CHEXIM was very thinly capitalised up to 2015. However, in July that year, the PBOC injected $45 bn from China’s FX reserves via the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), thus improving the equity/assets ratio. The bank does not disclose its current capital ratios.
CHEXIM’s policy role may involve taking on exposures that may lead to financial losses in which case we would expect timely and proactive state support to ensure it remains of sound standing.
Key Metrics
AS OF 23 Jun 2022| RMB bn | FY21 | FY20 | FY19 | FY18 | FY17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Impairment Operating Profit / Average Assets | 0.67% | 0.54% | 0.87% | 1.83% | 0.08% |
| Operating Income/Average Assets | 0.84% | 0.71% | 1.03% | 1.97% | 0.21% |
| Credit Costs | 0.24% | 0.25% | 0.51% | 1.63% | 0.63% |
| Calculated ROA | 0.14% | 0.11% | 0.12% | 0.12% | (0.35%) |
| Calculated ROE | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | (4.0%) |
| Customer Loans, Net | 4,335 | 3,949 | 3,558 | 3,180 | 2,746 |
| Gross Loans/(Deposits+Bonds) | 108% | 111% | 119% | 119% | 109% |
| Total Equity/Total Assets | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% |
CreditSights View
AS OF 16 May 2012Recommendation Reviewed: May 16, 2012
Recommendation Changed: January 01, 1970
Who We Recommend
Bank Rakyat Indonesia
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
State Bank of India