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MODEL PORTFOLIO THE GIST
NEWS AND FEATURES
Global Philippines Fine Living
INSIGHTS
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
WEBINARS
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
DOWNLOADS
Checkout counters at the supermarket
Economic Updates
February Economic Update: Cut to the chase 
March 10, 2026 DOWNLOAD
gas-station-banner
Economic Updates
Inflation Update: Nowhere but up 
March 5, 2026 DOWNLOAD
A container ship in a port
Economic Updates
Philippines Trade Update: Imports weaken on tepid demand
February 27, 2026 DOWNLOAD
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  • Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
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Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

  • Bond: KSA 0.75 27 (EUR)
  • Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 2.45%
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Country Overview

AS OF 11 Feb 2026
  • Saudi Arabia is a key player in the global economy and one of the world’s largest oil producers and exporters.
  • In 2023, the Kingdom’s total exports reached USD 300 billion, driven primarily by crude petroleum, refined petroleum, ethylene polymers, and polypropylene polymers.
  • While traditionally reliant on oil, Saudi Arabia is actively diversifying its economy, investing in sectors such as technology, tourism, entertainment, and financial services.

Macro Fundamentals

AS OF 11 Feb 2026
  • The country's strong oil revenues provide a stable fiscal foundation, supporting economic growth and development initiatives.
  • Prudent fiscal policies and government-led economic reforms, including Vision 2030, are driving long-term economic transformation.
  • Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth funds and investment-grade credit ratings reinforce its financial stability and resilience in global markets.
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  • Republic of the Philippines
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Republic of the Philippines

  • Country: Philippines
  • Bond: PHILIP 5 36
  • Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.95%
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Country Overview

AS OF 11 Feb 2026
  • The Philippines is one of the fastest-growing emerging market economies, though GDP per capita remains relatively low at USD 3,870 per year, comparable to Egypt.
  • Key economic drivers include business process outsourcing (BPO) and tourism, alongside a manufacturing sector specializing in electronics, automotive production, and food processing.
  • While the country has limited natural resources, it is a significant global supplier of nickel ore.
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  • DBS Group
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DBS Group

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Fundamental View

AS OF 11 Feb 2026
  • DBS Group has sound standalone fundamentals and benefits from its strong home country. Support may be stronger than peers thanks to its longstanding relationship with the government and Temasek’s ~29% stake.

  • DBS is a major player in Asian corporate banking, and also has strengths in mass market and private banking. It is also one of Asia’s leading digital banks. Acquisitions have been skillfully handled in the past decade or so.

  • DBS has performed well in recent years, with a high RoE, and its asset quality has been more resilient than that at UOB and OCBC thanks to its greater exposures to large corps.

Business Description

AS OF 11 Feb 2026
  • DBS was established in 1968 as a development bank but was subsequently privatised and is now commercially run. The Singapore government retains an indirect stake through its investment vehicle, Temasek (~29%).
  • In 1998, DBS moved beyond its wholesale bank origins with the acquisition of POSB that brought along a large mass market customer and deposit base. In 2001, it acquired the former Dao Heng Bank in Hong Kong and in 2008, it acquired a part of the failed Bowa Bank in Taiwan, to supplement its Greater China operations. It also regularly acquired wealth management businesses, such as SocGen's Asian private banking business in 2014 and ANZ's Asian retail and wealth management businesses in Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan and Indonesia in 2018. Recent acquisitions include Lakshmi Vilas Bank in India, a 16.69% stake in China's Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank, and Citi's consumer business in Taiwan. However, expansion in Malaysia has been more challenging, with its most recent plan to acquire up to 30% stake in Alliance Bank Malaysia Bhd still under regulatory review.
  • As of YE25, Singapore accounted for 45% of its loan book, with HK (12%), Rest of Greater China (13%), South & Southeast Asia (9%) and Rest of the World (21%) accounting for the rest.
  • The bank is well regarded as a digital leader in the banking space, and has steadily built capabilities in private banking and markets businesses.

Risk & Catalysts

AS OF 11 Feb 2026
  • Loan growth has been a recent challenge, with ongoing high repayments in Greater China and potential impact from tariffs.

  • Asset quality has outperformed the other two Singapore majors with very low credit costs.

  • The bank encountered some operational issues recently. On 30 April 2024, the MAS removed its restriction on DBS’s non-essential activities, which had been imposed in Nov-23 following IT failures. Its retail payments system had another outage on 2 May 2024.

  • Like other Singapore banks, DBS is facing NIM pressure due to lower SORA.

Key Metric

AS OF 11 Feb 2026
SGD mn FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
PPP ROA 1.14% 1.32% 1.60% 1.69% 1.56%
ROA 1.0% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.3%
ROE 12.5% 15.0% 18.0% 18.0% 16.2%
Equity/Assets 8.38% 7.65% 8.40% 8.32% 7.67%
CET1 Ratio (fully loaded) 14.4% 14.6% 14.6% 15.1% 15.0%
NPL Ratio 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0%
Provisions / Loans 0.01% 0.06% 0.14% 0.14% 0.18%
Liquidity Coverage Ratio 135% 146% 144% 147% 155%
Net Stable Funding Ratio 123% 117% 118% 115% 117%
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CreditSight View Comment

AS OF 09 Feb 2026

DBS performed well for several years under CEO Piyush Gupta, who was succeeded by Ms. Tan Su Shan in March 2025. It has comfortable capital and well managed liquidity. Temasek is the main shareholder. DBS has grown its various businesses sensibly and has been a leading bank for adopting digital technology, recent technology outages notwithstanding. It has also steadily grown its fee income and its regional businesses. WM and transaction banking have been focuses, with bolt-on acquisitions/stakes in private banking and Asian retail banking, more recently in India (Lakshmi Vilas Bank), China (SZRCB) and Taiwan (Citi consumer business). It delivered record high FY4 profits and 9M25 results were peer-leading. 4Q25 results were affected by a HK real estate account but overall AQ remained sound.

Recommendation Reviewed: February 09, 2026

Recommendation Changed: June 03, 2016

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  • KB Financial Group
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KB Financial Group

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Fundamental View

AS OF 11 Feb 2026
  • KB Financial Group has grown steadily through the acquisitions of non-bank companies in Korea and small banks in Indonesia and Cambodia. Its banking subsidiary, Kookmin Bank, operates the largest branch network in Korea, with a particularly strong presence in the retail market. This makes it a systemically important bank, with strong potential government support if needed.

  • The group has a good track record, and its large mass-market franchise gives it a strong customer base. It has a well-diversified business and the highest CET1 ratio, reserve cover, and net interest margin among the four major financial groups.

Business Description

AS OF 11 Feb 2026
  • KB Financial Group (KBFG) is a well-diversified and well-run group. Its main subsidiaries, in addition to Kookmin Bank (KB), are Kookmin Card, KB Insurance, KB Securities, KB Capital (leasing), and KB Asset Management.
  • KB was the result of several mergers after the Asian economic crisis of the late 1990s. Its main predecessors were Citizen's National Bank and Housing & Commercial Bank, both retail-focused banks that have given it the leading position in Korean retail banking.
  • For the near term, the group doesn't expect further M&A. It has looked for growth overseas, focusing on Indonesia (where it has taken a 67% stake in Bank Bukopin) and Cambodia (it took a 100% shareholding in Prasac, a micro-finance lender, over 2020-21). It also bought Prudential Financial's Korean insurance business in 2020, which was subsequently merged with KB Insurance.

Risk & Catalysts

AS OF 11 Feb 2026
  • As one of Korea’s “Big Four” financial groups, we believe that KBFG would likely receive governmental support if needed.

  • Substantial preemptive provisions led to higher credit costs than most peers in FY25. KBFG has the highest NPL coverage ratio among the Big 4.

  • KBFG has the highest NIM among the four FGs, largely thanks to the highest NIM at Kookmin bank among the Big 4 banks. However, its NIM trend lagged peers in FY25.

  • KBFG is expanding by business line and overseas with a focus on Indonesia and Cambodia—markets with more favourable demographics, growth potential, and profit margins than Korea but also more risk.

  • Loan growth faces headwinds from tighter mortgage regulation and soft corporate demand.

Key Metric

AS OF 11 Feb 2026
KRW bn FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
Pre-Provision Profit ROA 1.14% 1.05% 1.36% 1.37% 1.40%
ROA 0.69% 0.57% 0.65% 0.68% 0.75%
ROE 10.2% 8.8% 9.1% 9.7% 10.9%
Provisions/Loans 0.31% 0.45% 0.73% 0.45% 0.50%
NPL ratio 0.33% 0.34% 0.57% 0.65% 0.63%
CET1 Ratio 13.5% 13.2% 13.6% 13.5% 13.8%
Equity/Assets 7.3% 7.9% 8.2% 7.9% 7.6%
Net Interest Margin 1.83% 1.96% 2.08% 2.03% 1.97%
Scroll to view columns right arrow

CreditSight View Comment

AS OF 09 Feb 2026

KBFG is the largest of the “Big 4” financial groups in S Korea, and its banking subsidiary, Kookmin Bank, enjoys the strongest franchise with a particularly strong retail, as it was a government retail bank that was privatized in 1995. As a systemically important bank, government support is assured. KBFG has a good track record and a well-diversified business. Capital standing is the key strength, with the current highest group CET1 ratio. The NPL coverage ratio has declined significantly in recent quarters but remained the highest among the Big 4. The bank LCR is low in the ~104 area but NSFR good in the ~118% area. It delivered the highest returns among the Big 4 in FY25. We have an Underperform recommendation on it on tight valuations.

Recommendation Reviewed: February 09, 2026

Recommendation Changed: October 31, 2025

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  • Shinhan Financial Group
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Shinhan Financial Group

  • Sector: Financial Services
  • Sub Sector: Banks
  • Region: Korea
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Fundamental View

AS OF 11 Feb 2026
  • Shinhan FG was the best-managed of the large Korean financial groups over many years. During the Asian Financial Crisis, it took advantage of the opportunity to acquire competitors and other businesses, increasing its scale and expanding its business lines.

  • Its performance has been more variable in the past few years. After a bumpy 2020, it had a better FY21 and FY22, thanks to rising interest rates. However, operating performance turned weak again in FY23, and its FY24 profit growth was softer than peers, impacted by non-bank performance. FY25 witnessed some improvement.

  • In addition to owning a Big 4 bank in Korea, Shinhan FG also has a diversified non-banking business portfolio, including a leading credit card company and a top 10 securities firm.

Business Description

AS OF 11 Feb 2026
  • Shinhan Financial Group (Shinhan FG) is one of Korea's most diversified financial groups and the holding company of the second largest Korean bank - Shinhan Bank. It also has credit cards, securities, asset management and insurance subsidiaries.
  • Shinhan Bank was set up in 1982 with seed capital from Korean residents in Japan. It was more professionally managed than the heavily politicised older banks and came through the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis in relatively good shape, taking the opportunity to acquire the larger and much longer-established Chohung Bank in 2003.
  • In 2007, it made another timely acquisition, buying LG Card from its creditors after it failed during the 2003 Korean consumer lending crisis. Shinhan Card is the largest card issuer in Korea.
  • Shinhan is also looking for overseas opportunities where growth is strong and Korean businesses have a presence, with a focus on Vietnam (where Shinhan Card also bought a consumer finance business in 2019) and Indonesia.

Risk & Catalysts

AS OF 11 Feb 2026
  • As one of Korea’s “Big Four” financial groups, we believe Shinhan FG would likely receive governmental support if needed.

  • Asset quality pressure has been rising from domestic real estate project financing at non-bank subsidiaries, with credit costs rising from very low levels.

  • Loan growth is expected to be more challenging given tighter regulation on mortgage lending like its peers.

  • Profit growth may encounter challenges if there is volatility in the KRW, which could lead to significant FX losses.

Key Metric

AS OF 11 Feb 2026
KRW bn FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
Pre-Provision Profit ROA 1.11% 1.10% 1.23% 1.20% 1.18%
ROA 0.66% 0.72% 0.66% 0.63% 0.67%
ROE 9.2% 10.0% 8.6% 8.4% 9.1%
Provisions/Average Loans 0.28% 0.34% 0.57% 0.51% 0.46%
NPL Ratio 0.39% 0.41% 0.56% 0.71% 0.72%
CET1 Ratio 13.10% 12.79% 13.17% 13.02% 13.33%
Equity/Assets 7.3% 7.6% 7.8% 7.6% 7.4%
Net Interest Margin 1.81% 1.96% 1.97% 1.93% 1.90%
Scroll to view columns right arrow

CreditSight View Comment

AS OF 09 Feb 2026

Shinhan FG is one of the four nation-wide commercial banking groups in Korea, with a leading credit card arm. As a systemically important bank, government support is assured. It had over many years the best operating track record, but lost its way and KB and Hana caught up; its performance was inconsistent for a few years but has improved recently. Its FY25 returns remained high and just behind KBFG. Its CET 1 ratio was also behind KBFG and close to Hana. The bank LCR and NSFR are low at 105/109% (3Q25). It NPL coverage ratio has declined but still decent at 126%, and it plans to lower the CET 1 ratio to slightly above 13%. We have an Underperform recommendation on it on tight valuations.

Recommendation Reviewed: February 09, 2026

Recommendation Changed: October 31, 2025

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Bonds Market Movements Top Picks Issuer List
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  • Woori Financial Group
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Woori Financial Group

  • Sector: Financial Services
  • Sub Sector: Banks
  • Country: Korea
  • Bond: WOORIB 4.875 28
  • Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 5.108% (Indicative as of March 2)
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Fundamental View

AS OF 11 Feb 2026
  • Woori FG’s performance record had been less consistent than some of its more commercially focused peers but improved in FY21-22. Its FY23 performance lagged behind its peers, but FY24 profit growth was peer-leading, partially thanks to not having the ELS compensation issue which hit the other three FGs in 1Q24. FY25 performance was softer again due to higher opex and preemptive provisioning.

  • Asset quality used to be a strength with the lowest NPL ratios and credit costs among the four FGs but has deteriorated since 2Q23, and we no longer see a gap with the other FGs.

  • Capital standing is a relative weakness but is closer than ever before to that of its peers on the back of active portfolio management.

Business Description

AS OF 11 Feb 2026
  • Woori's predecessor banks were rescued by the Korea Deposit Insurance Corporation (KDIC) following the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.
  • Woori Bank is one of Korea's 'Big Four' commercial banks. It previously owned two regional banks, Kwangju and Kyongnam, but these were spun off in 2014. Woori also sold its stake in Woori Investment Securities and its savings bank and life insurance arms to NH Financial Group.
  • Woori set up a HoldCo (Woori FG) in January 2019 to expand into more diversified business lines, particularly investment banking. It used to have a HoldCo, but it was dissolved in 2014 when it was merged with Woori Bank.
  • Its main subsidiaries are 100%-owned Woori Card, Woori Financial Capital (auto leasing), Woori Investment Bank and 72.3%-owned Woori Asset Trust. In August 2024, the group relaunched securities business by acquiring Korea Foss Securities and merging it with Woori Investment. The group also acquired a 75.34% stake in Tongyang Life and full ownership of ABL Life and has consolidated them since 1 July 2025.

Risk & Catalysts

AS OF 11 Feb 2026
  • Woori FG was for many years majority-owned by the Korean government via the Deposit Insurance Corporation (KDIC), but KDIC has steadily sold down its shareholding, and Woori purchased and cancelled the remaining shares in 2024. That said, Woori FG remains a large, systemically important bank with strong potential government backing if needed.

  • Woori FG is less diversified than KB and Shinhan, with most of its earnings coming from the bank and small contributions from the card and leasing businesses. The group has accelerated its M&A pace since 2024; it relaunched securities business and acquired two insurance companies. However, It will likely take more time than expected for the new non-banking segments to make a meaningful contribution to the group.

  • Loan growth is expected to be more challenging given tighter regulation on mortgage lending.

Key Metric

AS OF 11 Feb 2026
KRW bn FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
Pre-Provision Profit ROA 0.99% 1.15% 1.10% 1.17% 1.02%
ROA 0.66% 0.70% 0.54% 0.61% 0.58%
ROE 10.6% 11.5% 8.3% 9.3% 9.1%
Provisions/Loans 0.17% 0.26% 0.53% 0.45% 0.53%
NPL Ratio 0.30% 0.31% 0.35% 0.57% 0.63%
Woori Bank CET1 Ratio 13.0% 12.7% 13.2% 13.1% 14.1%
Equity/Assets 6.45% 6.58% 6.71% 6.83% 6.30%
Net Interest Margin Bank + Card 1.62% 1.84% 1.82% 1.70% 1.73%
Scroll to view columns right arrow

CreditSight View Comment

AS OF 09 Feb 2026

Woori FG was for some years the weakest of Korea’s Big 4 Financial Groups. Operating performance had shown an improvement for a few years but disappointed in FY23. FY24 results were peer-leading, mainly supported by non-interest income, but FY25 results lagged again. The group has been seeking opportunities to expand its non-bank businesses. Its new securities entity launched in Aug-24 and the acquisition of two insurance companies were completed in Jul-25. Both the group and the bank CET1 ratios are behind peers, but a strong improvement from earlier. The bank LCR is low at ~107% and NSFR is acceptable at ~112%. As a systemically important bank, government support is assured. We have an Underperform recommendation on it on tight valuations.

Recommendation Reviewed: February 09, 2026

Recommendation Changed: February 03, 2026

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  • Hana Financial Group
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Hana Financial Group

  • Sector: Financial Services
  • Sub Sector: Banks
  • Country: Korea
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Fundamental View

AS OF 04 Feb 2026
  • Hana Financial Group (Hana FG) struggled for several years to make its acquisition of the former Korea Exchange Bank a success, but results improved dramatically in 2015 as revenues grew and cost efficiencies improved. It has produced strong results since 2020.

  • The group is looking for inorganic growth in its non-bank businesses as it has fallen behind Shinhan FG and KBFG in this area, but has so far shied away from a large acquisition.

  • Hana Bank has the highest CET 1 ratio among the Korean Big 4 banks.

Business Description

AS OF 04 Feb 2026
  • Hana FG is the third-largest financial group in South Korea. From small origins as a finance company in the 1970s, after the 1997 Asian crisis, Hana grew by acquiring three other banks, including the much older Seoul Bank, which had a banking and trust management business.
  • Hana FG bought Korea Exchange Bank (KEB) from Lone Star in 2012 after overcoming many hurdles, but due to staff union opposition, it could not merge with Hana Bank until 2015.
  • Hana FG's overseas business is smaller than its peers, and is complemented by KEB's extensive international operations. KEB was started in 1967 as a government-owned bank specializing in foreign exchange. It had a leading share in FX transactions and trade finance among Korean banks.
  • Hana FG has shown good growth in its credit card and securities non-bank businesses, but is less diversified than its larger peers KB and Shinhan, which have also acquired insurance companies. Its latest acquisition (in 2019) was a 15% stake in Vietnam's state-owned Bank for Investment & Development (BIDV).

Risk & Catalysts

AS OF 04 Feb 2026
  • Hana FG’s credit costs at ~30 bp in FY24 and FY25 were lower than peers. However, the group’s NPL coverage ratio was also ~20-30 ppt behind peers.

  • NIMs are lower than those of KB and Shinhan at both the group and bank levels. The profit contribution from non-bank entities to group profits is also lagging behind these two peers. Both metrics are comparable to Woori’s.

  • Non-banking businesses have underperformed in recent years, with profit contributions falling from 20–30% in 2019–2021 to around 10%, primarily due to elevated provisions for domestic real estate project financing and valuation losses related to overseas commercial real estate.

  • Loan growth is expected to be more challenging given tighter regulation on mortgage lending.

Key Metric

AS OF 04 Feb 2026
KRW bn FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
Pre-Provision Profit ROA 1.07% 1.10% 1.11% 1.00% 1.02%
ROA 0.74% 0.66% 0.59% 0.61% 0.62%
ROE 10.9% 10.1% 9.0% 9.1% 9.2%
Provisions/Loans 0.16% 0.34% 0.46% 0.32% 0.31%
NPL Ratio 0.32% 0.34% 0.50% 0.62% 0.72%
CET1 Ratio 13.8% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2% 13.4%
Equity/Assets 6.8% 6.4% 6.6% 6.7% 6.6%
Net Interest Margin 1.66% 1.83% 1.82% 1.69% 1.73%
Scroll to view columns right arrow

CreditSight View Comment

AS OF 09 Feb 2026

Hana FG grew through acquisitions but only in 2015 was it able to merge its two main bank units to form KEB-Hana Bank. Hana’s management has a good record but for some years struggled to extract value from its acquisitions. Its performance for the past few years has generally been strong. More focus has been put on RWA management and capital enhancement since 2H24. The non-bank segment remains a drag. Hana’s credit costs were lower than those of its peers, but this has also resulted in the lowest NPL coverage ratio among the four FGs. The bank LCR and NSFR are low at 105/109% (3Q25). The group aims to maintain a CET1 ratio of 13-13.5%; its bank level CET1 ratio is the highest amongst peers. Insurance M&A is being considered. We have an Underperform recommendation on tight valuations.

Recommendation Reviewed: February 09, 2026

Recommendation Changed: October 31, 2025

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Bond:
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  • Mineral Industri Indonesia
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Mineral Industri Indonesia

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Fundamental View

AS OF 27 Jan 2026
  • We expect PT Mineral Industri Indonesia’s (MIND ID) strategic importance and policy role to the Government of Indonesia (GoI) to strengthen in line with the GoI’s downstream push and green energy transition efforts.

  • We expect MIND ID’s credit metrics to improve modestly in FY26 as healthy commodity prices (barring coal and nickel), capacity additions, and healthy dividend income from key joint venture PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) could offset high capex.

  • Mining regulatory risk remains a concern, though MIND ID’s large diversified scale of operations could partly limit such risks.

  • We are watchful of dividend upstreaming risks to Indonesia’s new sovereign wealth fund Danantara.

Business Description

AS OF 27 Jan 2026
  • MIND ID is an unlisted Indonesian state-owned holding company of various Indonesian mining operators.
  • Key subsidiaries include: 1) Bukit Asam: Coal mining, processing, and sale of coal; 2) Timah: Tin mining, processing, and sale of downstream products; 3) Aneka Tambang (Antam): Mining, processing, and sale of gold products, nickel, ferronickel, bauxite and chemical grade alumina; 4) Inalum: Production of aluminium.
  • Key unconsolidated joint ventures and associates include: 1) PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI): Mining, processing and sale of copper, gold and silver. MIND ID aims to raise its stake in PTFI to 71% from a current 51% in the medium-to-long term; 2) PT Vale Indonesia (PTVI): Mining and processing of nickel. MIND ID has a current 34% stake in PTVI.

Risk & Catalysts

AS OF 27 Jan 2026
  • MIND ID is subjected to unanticipated changes in mining policies that raise operational and regulatory uncertainties.

  • MIND ID is exposed to commodity price fluctuations that could hurt sales price realizations and profitability.

  • Capex typically remains elevated, pressurizing its free cash flow generation and leverage.

  • MIND ID faces material asset concentration risk for its coal, gold and tin segments.

  • We are watchful of dividend upstreaming risks to Indonesia’s new sovereign wealth fund Danantara.

Key Metric

AS OF 27 Jan 2026
IDR bn FY22 FY23 FY24 3Q24 3Q25
Debt to Book Cap 44.6% 41.6% 35.7% 38.0% 34.3%
Net Debt to Book Cap 27.1% 24.5% 21.8% 23.7% 23.0%
Debt/Total Equity 80.5% 71.2% 55.5% 61.4% 52.2%
Debt/Total Assets 38.7% 35.6% 30.4% 31.6% 29.0%
Gross Leverage 3.5x 7.0x 5.7x 6.0x 4.5x
Net Leverage 2.1x 4.1x 3.5x 3.7x 3.0x
Interest Coverage 3.9x 2.2x 2.3x 2.2x 3.1x
EBITDA Margin 19.9% 12.3% 10.8% 12.9% 14.2%
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CreditSight View Comment

AS OF 05 Mar 2026

We maintain our M/P on MIND ID, and remove our pref for its 2048, and do not prefer its 2028 and 2030 bond. Our preference for its 2048 has played out, as its spread differential against Pertamina/PLN 2048 narrowed and the bond yielded good returns from its high coupon. We see a modestly improving credit outlook over the next 12 months as strong gold and aluminium prices, new project contributions, and sturdy dividend income from jv PTFI could offset rising downstream capex. We also view state support for IDASAL as gradually strengthening, given Danantara’s focus on mining as a priority industry. Key risks we are watchful of include overly aggressive capex and dividend payouts to Danantara, unanticipated unfavorable mining regulatory changes, and reduced dividends from PTFI.   

Recommendation Reviewed: March 05, 2026

Recommendation Changed: August 28, 2025

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Bonds Market Movements Top Picks Issuer List
  • Top Picks
  • Reliance Industries
Sovereign Bonds

Reliance Industries

  • Sector: Manufacturing
  • Sub Sector: Diversified Conglomerates
  • Country: India
  • Region: India
  • Bond: RILIN 4.125 25
  • Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 5.531% (Indicative as of March 2)
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Fundamental View

AS OF 20 Jan 2026
  • We are comfortable with Reliance’s large diversified scale of operations and dominant presence in various key sectors (refining, petrochemicals, retail and telecom), which allows for earnings resilience.

  • We believe a lackluster oils-to-chemicals outlook is well mitigated by strong outlooks for telecom and retail.

  • Plans to ramp up its renewable energy business could provide the next leg of growth and improve ESG perception.

  • Reliance incurs significant capex that has weighed on free cash flow generation, though we acknowledge its historically prudent financial management and robust credit metrics that provide ample elbowroom for some credit profile deterioration.

Business Description

AS OF 20 Jan 2026
  • RIL is an Indian diversified conglomerate engaged in oil & gas refining, marketing, petrochemicals, organized retail, telecom and digital services, amongst others. It is the largest company in India by revenue, profits, exports and market capitalization (INR 20 tn).
  • It is the second largest refiner in India and produces petroleum products such as petrol, high-speed diesel (HSD), aviation turbine fuel (ATF), LPG and lubricants.
  • It is the largest petrochemicals producer in India, boasting production of ~38 mn tons in FY20. Through its integrated Jamnagar refinery complex, it produces Polymers/Plastics, Elastomers (synthetic rubber) and Polyester products.
  • It is the largest retailer in India in terms of revenue. It operates 18.8k stores (as of March 2024) to sell products ranging from consumer electronics, fashion and lifestyle, grocery, petrol retail and telecom and digital services. It launched its online retail channel, 'JioMart', in December 2019.
  • Reliance Jio is the largest mobile telecom operator by subscriber base (482 mn as of March 2024) in India and boasts the widest 4G wireless network in the country.
  • In 2021, RIL announced investments to the tune of INR 750 bn/ $10 bn (for next 3 years) to build a renewable energy ecosystem which will include 4 giga factories. Set to be located in Gujarat, the factories will produce solar modules, hydrogen, fuel cells and battery grid to store electricity. Long-term goals also include building 100 GW of PV solar plants by 2030.

Risk & Catalysts

AS OF 20 Jan 2026
  • Reliance’s O2C (oil-to chemicals) margins remain under pressure from global tariff-led growth slowdown concerns and persisting oversupply conditions in China.

  • Reliance incurs significant capex at historically high levels, particularly from continued investments into its O2C, retail, and nascent renewables businesses. This has weighed on its free cash flow generation, though we take comfort in Reliance’s historically prudent financial management and robust credit metrics.

  • Reliance faces key-person risk; 65-year old Chairman Mukesh Ambani has begun to hand over the reins of the company’s different business divisions to his children.

Key Metric

AS OF 20 Jan 2026
INR bn FY23 FY24 FY25 F1H25 F1H26
Debt to Book Cap 35.3% 33.1% 31.9% 32.7% 31.2%
Net Debt to Book Cap 29.9% 26.1% 24.8% 26.4% 23.9%
Debt/Total Equity 54.5% 49.6% 46.9% 48.6% 45.4%
Debt/Total Assets 28.1% 26.1% 24.3% 25.6% 23.4%
Gross Leverage 3.2x 2.8x 2.9x 2.9x 2.7x
Net Leverage 2.7x 2.2x 2.2x 2.3x 2.1x
Interest Coverage 5.0x 7.0x 6.8x 6.9x 6.7x
EBITDA Margin 15.9% 17.7% 16.9% 16.5% 17.5%
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CreditSight View Comment

AS OF 11 Feb 2026

We have a Market perform recommendation on Reliance (RIL); we would avoid its 2045 and 2052 on tight valuations. We like RIL’s large diversified operations and dominant market shares in key sectors (refining, retail and telecom) that boosts earnings resilience. Its growing renewable business could aid ESG investor sentiment too. While we acknowledge persisting weakness in the O2C segment and RIL’s elevated capex needs, we think the impact is mitigated by RIL’s prudent financial management and healthy credit metrics that provide ample elbowroom for some credit profile deterioration. While key man risk remains a concern, we take comfort in gradually progressing succession plans.

Recommendation Reviewed: February 11, 2026

Recommendation Changed: June 30, 2021

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Bonds Market Movements Top Picks Issuer List
  • Top Picks
  • Qatar National Bank
Sovereign Bonds

Qatar National Bank

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Fundamental View

AS OF 15 Jan 2026
  • Qatar National Bank (QNB) is a quasi-sovereign entity due to its state ties and ownership. It dominates the domestic market with a >50% share.

  • QBN is the largest bank in the Middle East by total assets. Profitability is behind leading UAE and Saudi banks due to weaker asset quality, but operating metrics are overall sound and capital adequacy ratios are strong.

  • Liquidity risk is moderate. QNB’s loan-to-deposit ratio is above 100% and NSFR is just slightly above 100%, which is worse than the UAE but comparable to Saudi banks. QNB also has a high reliance on wholesale and foreign funding. However, this is mitigated by strong state support.

Business Description

AS OF 15 Jan 2026
  • QNB is the flagship bank of Qatar and the largest bank in the six-state Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. Established in 1964 and listed on the Qatar Stock Exchange, the State of Qatar owns a 50% stake in QNB through its sovereign wealth fund, the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA).
  • QNB dominates the Qatari banking system and serves as the principal provider of credit and liquidity to the local economy, representing more than 50% of total banking system assets and loans.
  • The bank's operations are segmented into domestic Corporate Banking, Consumer Banking, Asset Management and Wealth Management divisions, as well as International operations. Given its flagship status and close government links, it obtains high volumes of lower-risk, public sector business domestically (35% of total loans at December 2025).
  • QNB operates in more than 28 countries, with a significant presence in Turkiye and Egypt through its subsidiaries QNB Bank A.S. & Enpara Bank A.S., and QNB Egypt, respectively. 78% of its loan book is domestic, followed by Turkiye (11%) and Egypt (3%) at December 2025.

Risk & Catalysts

AS OF 15 Jan 2026
  • Qatar’s economic fundamentals are strong, anchored by the world’s largest LNG reserves. While high hydrocarbon dependence is a structural weakness and energy prices are likely to moderate in 2026, fiscal surpluses should be sustained on higher production; gas prices also have better stability than oil prices. Growth prospects for 2026 are favorable across both hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon sectors, with expected rate cuts supporting bank asset quality and loan growth.

  • QNB has a high reliance on wholesale and foreign funding sources due to limited domestic retail deposits, but liquidity risks are contained by sufficient liquidity ratios and a high likelihood and capacity for the sovereign to provide support given QNB’s systemic importance, the Qatar government’s 50% stake via the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), and Qatar’s substantial net foreign assets.

  • Asset quality is underpinned by QNB’s sizable lower-risk public sector business in Qatar (35% of loans at Dec-25), as a result of its flagship status and strong state links. International operations in Turkiye (11% of loans) and (3%) Egypt however carry higher financial and geopolitical risks.

Key Metric

AS OF 15 Jan 2026
QAR mn FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
Net Interest Margin 2.18% 2.53% 2.51% 2.60% 2.66%
ROAA 1.25% 1.27% 1.29% 1.34% 1.29%
ROAE 17.2% 17.6% 18.0% 18.7% 17.7%
Equity/Assets 9.2% 8.9% 9.0% 8.8% 8.8%
CET1 Ratio 15.2% 15.7% 16.0% 15.2% 15.5%
Gross NPL Ratio 2.32% 2.83% 2.97% 2.77% 2.60%
Provisions/Gross Loans 0.92% 1.08% 1.01% 0.89% 0.93%
Scroll to view columns right arrow

CreditSight View Comment

AS OF 15 Jan 2026

The interdependence and the state’s 50% ownership stake effectively make QNB a quasi-sovereign entity. The largest bank in the MEA region has a robust and low-risk balance sheet. Qatar is the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and CreditSights has a favourable view on the stability of LNG prices. The bank exposure to Turkey (11% of loans) is the main cause for its credit costs running in the 90-100 bp range for the past several quarters. Capital is solid at >15% CET1 ratio, with liquidity being the main issue given a limited pool of domestic deposits, which makes QNB wholesale funding dependent. It also operates with a low NSFR, similar to some UAE banks. We see its spreads trading slightly wide (flat to FAB is our expectation) and have it on Market perform.

Recommendation Reviewed: January 15, 2026

Recommendation Changed: January 07, 2026

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