DOWNLOAD
Archives: CreditSights Issuer List
Reliance Industries
- Sector: Manufacturing
- Sub Sector: Diversified Conglomerates
- Country: India
- Region: India
- Bond: RILIN 4.125 25
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 5.531% (Indicative as of March 2)
Access this content:
If you are an existing investor, log in first to your Metrobank Wealth Manager account.
If you wish to start your wealth journey with us, click the “How To Sign Up” button.
Fundamental View
AS OF 04 Nov 2025We are comfortable with Reliance’s large diversified scale of operations and dominant presence in various key sectors (refining, petrochemicals, retail and telecom), which allows for earnings resilience.
We believe a lackluster oils-to-chemicals outlook is well mitigated by strong outlooks for telecom and retail.
Plans to ramp up its renewable energy business could provide the next leg of growth and improve ESG perception.
Reliance incurs significant capex that has weighed on free cash flow generation, though we acknowledge its historically prudent financial management and robust credit metrics that provide ample elbowroom for some credit profile deterioration.
Business Description
AS OF 04 Nov 2025- RIL is an Indian diversified conglomerate engaged in oil & gas refining, marketing, petrochemicals, organized retail, telecom and digital services, amongst others. It is the largest company in India by revenue, profits, exports and market capitalization (INR 20 tn).
- It is the second largest refiner in India and produces petroleum products such as petrol, high-speed diesel (HSD), aviation turbine fuel (ATF), LPG and lubricants.
- It is the largest petrochemicals producer in India, boasting production of ~38 mn tons in FY20. Through its integrated Jamnagar refinery complex, it produces Polymers/Plastics, Elastomers (synthetic rubber) and Polyester products.
- It is the largest retailer in India in terms of revenue. It operates 18.8k stores (as of March 2024) to sell products ranging from consumer electronics, fashion and lifestyle, grocery, petrol retail and telecom and digital services. It launched its online retail channel, 'JioMart', in December 2019.
- Reliance Jio is the largest mobile telecom operator by subscriber base (482 mn as of March 2024) in India and boasts the widest 4G wireless network in the country.
- In 2021, RIL announced investments to the tune of INR 750 bn/ $10 bn (for next 3 years) to build a renewable energy ecosystem which will include 4 giga factories. Set to be located in Gujarat, the factories will produce solar modules, hydrogen, fuel cells and battery grid to store electricity. Long-term goals also include building 100 GW of PV solar plants by 2030.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 04 Nov 2025Reliance’s O2C (oil-to chemicals) margins remain under pressure from global tariff-led growth slowdown concerns and persisting oversupply conditions in China.
Reliance incurs significant capex at historically high levels, particularly from continued investments into its O2C, retail, and nascent renewables businesses. This has weighed on its free cash flow generation, though we take comfort in Reliance’s historically prudent financial management and robust credit metrics.
Reliance faces key-person risk; 65-year old Chairman Mukesh Ambani has begun to hand over the reins of the company’s different business divisions to his children.
Key Metric
AS OF 04 Nov 2025| INR bn | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | F1H25 | F1H26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 35.3% | 33.1% | 31.9% | 32.7% | 31.2% |
| Net Debt to Book Cap | 29.9% | 26.1% | 24.8% | 26.4% | 23.9% |
| Debt/Total Equity | 54.5% | 49.6% | 46.9% | 48.6% | 45.4% |
| Debt/Total Assets | 28.1% | 26.1% | 24.3% | 25.6% | 23.4% |
| Gross Leverage | 3.2x | 2.8x | 2.9x | 2.9x | 2.7x |
| Net Leverage | 2.7x | 2.2x | 2.2x | 2.3x | 2.1x |
| Interest Coverage | 5.0x | 7.0x | 6.8x | 6.9x | 6.7x |
| EBITDA Margin | 15.9% | 17.7% | 16.9% | 16.5% | 17.5% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 04 Nov 2025We have a Market perform recommendation on Reliance (RIL); we prefer its 2032 and would avoid its 2045 and 2052. We see room for RIL 2032 to tighten 10-15 bp versus Bharti 2031 and PTTGC 2032. We like RIL’s large diversified operations and dominant market shares in key sectors (refining, retail and telecom) that boosts earnings resilience. Its growing renewable business could aid ESG investor sentiment too. While we acknowledge persisting weakness in the O2C segment and RIL’s elevated capex needs, we think the impact is mitigated by RIL’s prudent financial management and healthy credit metrics that provide ample elbowroom for some credit profile deterioration. While key man risk remains a concern, we take comfort in gradually progressing succession plans.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 04, 2025
Recommendation Changed: June 30, 2021
Featured Issuers
Bank of Philippine Islands
SK Hynix
Hyundai Motor
How may we help you?
Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Netflix Inc
- Sector: Media
- Sub Sector: Technology
- Region: US
- Bond: NFLX 4.875 30
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.30%
Access this content:
If you are an existing investor, log in first to your Metrobank Wealth Manager account.
If you wish to start your wealth journey with us, click the “How To Sign Up” button.
Fundamental View
AS OF 28 Oct 2025- Netflix is one of the few clear winners in the industry’s transition to streaming, and we believe the group’s leading position will be bolstered in 2025/2026 as legacy media companies continue to rein in spending and international ambitions.
- From a financial perspective, we expect Netflix will deliver ~25% EBITDA growth in 2025 driven by a mix of subscriber growth, price hikes and margin expansion.
- Netflix’s financial policy is relatively conservative. While the company no longer targets $10-15 billion of gross debt, we view Netflix’s new financial policy as an evolution rather than a revolution and expect credit metrics to remain best in class.
Business Description
AS OF 28 Oct 2025- NFLX is the world's leading subscription streaming entertainment service with ~300+ mn paid streaming subs in 190+ countries around the world. NFLX's programming includes original & acquired TV series, documentaries and feature films.
- NFLX began expanding internationally with the launch of services in Canada (Sep 2010), followed by LatAm (Sep 2011), and the UK and Ireland (Jan 2012). NFLX launched services in 17 more markets at a measured pace through the end of 2015 before launching in the rest of the world in Jan 2016 (ex-China, N Korea, Syria, Crimea).
- As of FY24, Netflix's regional subscriber breakdown was as follows: (1) EMEA - 101.1 mn; (2) UCAN - 89.6 mn; (3) APAC - 57.5 mn and (4) LATAM - 53.3 mn.
- Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters are Co-CEOs, with Mr. Sarandos appointed to the position in July 2020 and Mr. Peters in January 2023. Co-founder Reed Hastings was appointed as executive chairman of the Board in January 2023.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 28 Oct 2025- M&A Risk: Warner Bros. Discovery is actively considering asset sales. We believe Netflix has no interest in linear TV assets, but could be open to a studio purchase under the right circumstances. Additionally, Netflix is in the early stages of an expansion into video games and has already acquired several studios.
- Increased Competition: Several large competitors including Amazon and Apple are increasingly leaning into DTC video offerings on a global basis. Heightened competition may result in rising churn & declining gross additions for NFLX.
- Market Saturation: Netflix is highly penetrated in the US market, so future growth will become increasingly dependent on price increases, uptake of the ad tier and success on the password sharing crackdown. The recent WWE and NFL deals also opens the door to higher-priced sports programming.
Key Metric
AS OF 28 Oct 2025| $ mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | LTM 3Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 29,698 | 31,616 | 33,723 | 39,001 | 43,379 |
| Revenue YoY % | 18.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 15.6% | 15.4% |
| EBITDA | 6,806 | 6,695 | 7,650 | 11,019 | 13,265 |
| EBITDA Growth | 33% | (2%) | 14% | 44% | 29% |
| Cash Content Expense | 17,469 | 16,660 | 13,140 | 17,003 | 17,209 |
| CFO - CapEx | (132) | 1,619 | 6,926 | 6,922 | 8,967 |
| Dividends/CFO-Capex | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| LTM CFO-CapEx to Debt | (0.9%) | 11.3% | 47.6% | 44.4% | 62.0% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 09 Sep 2025We believe Netflix’s premium valuation is justified given the group’s leading scale, operating momentum and credit metrics, which stand in stark contrast to the pressures facing legacy media peers. Netflix is one of the few clear winners in the industry’s transition to streaming, and we believe the group is on track to extend its leading position during a period of rising macro uncertainty since its legacy media competition is much more exposed to advertising market pressures. The company’s gross leverage is already best in class at ~1.1x, and we expect Netflix can generate ~$9 billion of FCF in FY25 with a FCF to debt ratio in the ~60% area. Netflix is also positioned to maintain its double-digit top line and profit growth in 2025.
Recommendation Reviewed: September 09, 2025
Recommendation Changed: October 20, 2022
Featured Issuers
Bank of Philippine Islands
SK Hynix
Hyundai Motor
How may we help you?
Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Commonwealth Bank of Australia
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Region: Australia
Access this content:
If you are an existing investor, log in first to your Metrobank Wealth Manager account.
If you wish to start your wealth journey with us, click the “How To Sign Up” button.
Fundamental View
AS OF 21 Oct 2025CBA has a very strong franchise in Australia; it is the leader in the retail market and is making good progress in challenging NAB in business banking.
It has been the best managed of the Australian banks for many years, and has outperformed peers. It lost some of its luster in the latter part of the 2010s due to regulatory and compliance lapses amid charges of complacency, but has since improved into a better institution.
Its capital and liquidity position is robust, and asset quality is strong.
Business Description
AS OF 21 Oct 2025- Originally established by the Australian government in 1911, CBA functioned for some time as Australia's central bank until the establishment of the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1959. It remained under government ownership until the early 1990s, after which it underwent a transformation from a bureaucratic public sector bank into a widely respected commercial organisation.
- Over the past couple of decades, CBA consolidated its position as the leading bank in Australia with a 24-28% share in household deposits and lending, helped by its acquisition of Bank of Western Australia during the 2008 crisis.
- In New Zealand it owns ASB Bank, but otherwise has been selling non-core assets, including its life insurance business.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 21 Oct 2025CBA’s financial health is closely linked to the Australian economy, in particular retail credit quality, mainly housing loans. Household confidence is improving, but they continue to be stretched; discretionary consumer spend is improving though on growth in real disposable incomes. Unemployment continues to be comfortable.
Earnings/NIMs are under pressure from strong mortgage market and deposit competition. Business banking growth however has been stellar and highly profitable.
The interest rate cuts coming through from the RBA will improve borrowers’ ability to make interest payments.
Key Metric
AS OF 21 Oct 2025| AUD mn | Y22 | Y23 | Y24 | Y25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Equity | 12.7% | 14.0% | 13.6% | 13.5% |
| Total Revenues Margin | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| Cost/Income | 46.3% | 43.7% | 45.0% | 45.7% |
| APRA CET1 Ratio | 11.5% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 12.3% |
| International CET1 Ratio | 18.6% | 19.1% | 19.1% | 20.9% |
| APRA Leverage Ratio | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% |
| Impairment Charge/Avg Loans | (0.0%) | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Gross Impaired Loans/Total Loans | n/m | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 130% | 131% | 136% | 130% |
| Net Stable Funding Ratio | 130% | 124% | 116% | 115% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 11 Nov 2025CBA operates as a well-oiled machine in the Australian banking market. It has the leading position in mortgages and deposits, and is challenging NAB in business banking. An AUSTRAC penalty in 2018 damaged its reputation and remediation costs impacted earnings for a couple of years. The bank sold a number of its non-bank business and equity investments to simplify and focus on its core domestic businesses. It has the highest NIM amongst the Aussie banks. Business banking growth has been stellar and highly profitable. Asset quality is comfortable. Its seniors trade marginally tight but at an acceptable level, while its Tier 2s trade fair.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 11, 2025
Recommendation Changed: October 05, 2016
Featured Issuers
Bank of Philippine Islands
SK Hynix
Hyundai Motor
How may we help you?
Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Delta Air Lines
- Sector: Transportation
- Sub Sector: Airlines
- Country: US
- Bond: DAL 5.25 30
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.67%
Access this content:
If you are an existing investor, log in first to your Metrobank Wealth Manager account.
If you wish to start your wealth journey with us, click the “How To Sign Up” button.
Fundamental View
AS OF 14 Oct 2025- Delta’s focus on premium cabin and atlantic flying driven by its loyalty program lead the airline to enjoy industry best profitability. Delta targets 1x gross leverage, an A level balance sheet in our view.
- Delta has Outperformed peers this year on its strong credit quality and defensive nature. We are retaining our O/P view and continue to favor DAL compared to LUV. We are happy to capture the basis between the two.
Business Description
AS OF 14 Oct 2025- DAL is one of the world's largest airlines with a network comparable to UAL and AAL in size and distribution. It is perceived by the flying public as the "most premium" of the Big Three network carriers in the US.
- DAL has an extensive global network of airline affiliations, including Air France/KLM, Virgin Atlantic, Aeromexico, LATAM, and China Eastern.
- DAL management is the most evolved of the US network airlines, previously focused on used aircraft to lower capital costs and setting up full-cycle maintenance programs, buying a refinery to hedge crack spread, and developing non-commodity products including the leading loyalty program.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 14 Oct 2025- DAL faces all the industry exogenous risks: geopolitical events, pandemics, oil price volatility, and now recessionary fears.
- The recently weaker dollar may manifest as a headwind to international demand. DAL was able to capitalize on strong Atlantic recovery post-pandemic through its extensive existing network; however, it lost its status as the number one airline on US-Europe routes to United which grew very fast in the segment and now occupies the first spot. 3Q Atlantic flying came in disappointing, but Domestic was very solid.
- DAL’s 1x leverage target is the lowest target in the industry.
- Higher income households are still outspending the middle and lower income ones, propelling Delta’s business even higher.
Key Metric
AS OF 14 Oct 2025| $ mn | Y22 | Y23 | Y24 | LTM 3Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 50,582 | 58,048 | 61,642 | 62,920 |
| EBIT | 3,661 | 5,521 | 5,995 | 6,072 |
| EBITDAR | 6,276 | 8,394 | 9,056 | 9,076 |
| Cash | 3,266 | 2,741 | 3,069 | 3,791 |
| Short Term Investments | 8,412 | 10,061 | 721 | 0 |
| Net Debt | 16,634 | 16,269 | 13,151 | 11,088 |
| Adjusted Debt/LTM EBITDAR | 5.3x | 3.5x | 2.7x | 2.5x |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 17 Nov 2025Delta’s 3Q25 was yet another reminder of the power of its premium-driven business model. While competitors are pulling capacity, Delta is powering through, driven by strength in its premium segment. The Delta credit story remains intact, with $3bn of debt paydown on track for this year, on the way toward a 1.0x leverage target in the coming years. We retain our Outperform view on Delta and continue to expect ratings upgrades into the A category as the company executes on its capital structure target.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 17, 2025
Recommendation Changed: April 12, 2024
Featured Issuers
Bank of Philippine Islands
SK Hynix
Hyundai Motor
How may we help you?
Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Access this content:
If you are an existing investor, log in first to your Metrobank Wealth Manager account.
If you wish to start your wealth journey with us, click the “How To Sign Up” button.
Fundamental View
AS OF 17 Sep 2025ING displays robust and consistent asset quality, good earnings and a well-balanced funding profile although we expect financial metrics to soften from these peaks.
These attributes are supported by its strong franchise in retail and wholesale banking in the Benelux region and its good geographic diversification.
At the same time, it has sizeable exposures to cyclical industry sectors in its Wholesale Banking division, although these have been reduced in recent years. Capital cushions are being run down over time closing the gap between the bank’s capital position and those of some of its major European peers.
Business Description
AS OF 17 Sep 2025- ING was founded in 1991 by a merger between Nationale-Nederlanden and NMB Postbank Group. It is now the largest Dutch bank by total assets.
- ING is focused on retail and commercial banking in the Benelux countries, with direct banking franchises in Germany, Spain, Italy, Australia, as well as Poland, Romania, Turkey and the Philippines.
- In April 2016, it completed the process of divesting all of its insurance business (in Europe, the US and Asia), under the Restructuring Plan conditions imposed by the European Commission after it received state aid in 2008-2009.
- In November 2016, ING announced that its resolution entity would be its holding company, ING Groep NV. ING Groep is now the issuing entity for all TLAC/MREL-eligible debt (AT1, Tier 2 and senior unsecured), and its sole operating entity is ING Bank N.V.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 17 Sep 2025Recently, Moody’s amended the outlook on ING’s senior unsecured debt rating to Positive.
ING is looking to become more acquisitive, so it remains a candidate for M&A in the coming years. In 1H25, it increased its stake in Van Lanschot to 20.3%.
ING’s CET1 ratio will trend down towards its 12.5% target in the coming years, bringing it more in line with other major peers.
Key Metric
AS OF 17 Sep 2025| € mn | Y21 | Y22 | Y23 | Y24 | 2Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return On Equity | 8.8% | 7.1% | 14.4% | 12.6% | 13.3% |
| Total Revenues Margin | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% |
| Cost/Income | 60.5% | 60.3% | 51.2% | 53.6% | 53.2% |
| CET1 Ratio (Transitional) | 15.9% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 13.6% | 13.3% |
| CET1 Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 15.9% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 13.6% | 13.3% |
| Leverage Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 139.0% | 134.0% | 143.0% | 143.0% | 141.0% |
| Impaired Loans (Gross)/Total Loans | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 31 Oct 2025After divesting its insurance operations, the remaining business, ING Bank, has stayed a solid Benelux-based bank with a strong direct banking arm in several countries. Profitability growth has been supported by a gradual recovery in the Dutch economy. Net interest revenues are declining but fundamentally, the bank looks in good shape versus several other core European banks and fee income is increasing. Capital ratios are trending downwards given distributions on offer to shareholders. In January 2025, it announced its intention to exit Russia but in September it was announced the deal has stalled. We moved from Outperform to Market perform on 6 February 2025.
Recommendation Reviewed: October 31, 2025
Recommendation Changed: February 07, 2025
Featured Issuers
Bank of Philippine Islands
SK Hynix
Hyundai Motor
How may we help you?
Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Alibaba
- Sector: Technology Media and Telecommunications
- Sub Sector: Technology
- Country: China
Access this content:
If you are an existing investor, log in first to your Metrobank Wealth Manager account.
If you wish to start your wealth journey with us, click the “How To Sign Up” button.
Fundamental View
AS OF 15 Sep 2025We maintain our O/P recommendation on BABA post its decent F1Q26 results; topline growth missed expectations, EBITDA margin fell 1 ppt, and FOCF turned negative; that said, gross leverage remained modest, with a strong net cash position intact. We view BABA as a core holding in China/Asia IG credits, and it is our preferred duration play. Its longer duration bonds trade ~40 bp wider than Chinese SOEs of similar tenors. In particular, we like BABA 2035. Within China tech credits, we prefer BABA over BIDU/JD, which are rated 1-2 notches lower but trade only marginally wider. We also view BABA to be more defensive compared to high beta BBB China tech credits while offering value.
Business Description
AS OF 15 Sep 2025- Founded in 1999, Alibaba is the largest retail commerce company in the world based on gross merchandise volume (GMV) as of 31 March 2023.
- The company's business segments comprise Taobao & Tmall Group (39% of F4Q25 revenue; China e-commerce incl. Taobao, Tmall, Taobao Deals, Taocaicai, 1688.com), International Digital Commerce (13%; incl. Lazada, AliExpress, Trendyol and Daraz), Cloud Intelligence Group (11%; incl. AliCloud, AI), logistic provider Cainiao (8%), Local Consumer Services (6%; incl. Ele.me, Amap), and Digital Media and Entertainment (2%, incl. Youku & Alibaba Pictures) and Others (21%; incl. Freshippo, Fliggy, Alibaba Health, Intelligent Information Platform, SunArt, DingTalk).
- Taobao/Tmall is Alibaba's core business and the main EBITA & cash generation unit of the group. Alibaba's annual active consumer exceeded 1 bn in June-2022.
- Alibaba had a market capitalization of RMB 2.7 tn as of 15 September 2025.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 15 Sep 2025While Chinese policymakers have adopted an increasingly friendly stance towards tech platforms, regulatory clampdown (e.g. anti-monopoly guidelines, data security laws, personal information protection laws) may still affect Alibaba as it increases compliance cost. There are regulatory risks given the corporate structure which uses variable interest entities (VIEs) to circumvent China’s restrictions on foreign ownership of Internet Content Providers (ICPs).
Intensifying competition amongst eCommerce platforms may result in slower topline growth and weaker EBITDA margins.
Alibaba does not control Alipay but relies on Alipay to conduct substantially all the payment processing and escrow services on its marketplaces.
US-China tension may escalate under the new Trump Administration, including additional chip sanctions, which may result in higher volatility. Failing to secure a stable supply of advanced AI chips and/(or) find domestic alternatives could weigh on the long-term AI development of Alibaba against international peers.
Key Metric
AS OF 15 Sep 2025| CNY BN | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | LTM F1Q26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 11.6% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 17.5% | 17.5% |
| Debt/Total Equity | 13.1% | 14.4% | 15.3% | 21.2% | 21.2% |
| Debt/Total Assets | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 12.6% |
| Gross Leverage | 0.9x | 0.9x | 0.9x | 1.2x | 1.2x |
| Interest Coverage | 32.2x | 29.6x | 24.0x | 20.7x | 19.9x |
| EBITDA Margin | 18.5% | 20.2% | 20.3% | 19.9% | 19.6% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 26 Nov 2025We maintain our O/P recc on Alibaba post its F2Q26 results; topline growth accelerated and was ahead of expectations; but EBITDA margin weakened due to hefty spending to expand its quick commerce segment; FOCF turned negative due to elevated capex for cloud and quick commerce; gross leverage weakened and net cash shrunk; that said, we still expect the company to maintain its net cash position over the next 6 months, and we project for its debt metrics to recover in FY27. We view Alibaba as a core holding in China and Asia IG credits, and it is our preferred duration play. Alibaba now trades on average 10 bp wider than Asia A corporate and 30 bp wider than Chinese SOEs which we view as attractive. We like BABA 5.25% 2035 for 30 bp of spread pick up against Chinese SOEs of similar tenors.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 26, 2025
Recommendation Changed: August 05, 2022
Featured Issuers
Bank of Philippine Islands
SK Hynix
Hyundai Motor
How may we help you?
Search topics about wealth insights and investments.China CITIC Financial Asset Management (Huarong)
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Region: China
Access this content:
If you are an existing investor, log in first to your Metrobank Wealth Manager account.
If you wish to start your wealth journey with us, click the “How To Sign Up” button.
Fundamental View
AS OF 10 Sep 2025A large impairment loss in FY20 brought CITIC AMC (formerly Huarong) to the brink of insolvency, but a state-led rescue plan provided it with liquidity support and brought its capital back above minimum requirements. CITIC has replaced the MoF as its largest shareholder. CITIC AMC remains as one of the Big 5 state-owned AMCs in China and will continue to perform national services.
On the guidance of the authorities, CITIC AMC has divested almost all of its non-core subsidiaries.
We expect its core operations to remain weak and volatile, until China’s economy is back on the upswing, residents regain confidence in the property market, and improved capital markets lead to better valuations on its securities books.
Business Description
AS OF 10 Sep 2025- China CITIC Financial Asset Management (formerly Huarong) is one of the five major state-owned asset management companies in China. It was first set up in 1999 to take over the bad debts of ICBC.
- The AMCs were originally due to be wound up after dealing with these "policy loans" that had come onto the books of the banks under government direction before their commercialisation, but the AMCs found a new role as commercial bad debt managers.
- CITIC AMC was commercialised in 2012 and completed its IPO on the HK stock exchange in 2015. Since then, it expanded its financial services to banking, financial leasing, securities & futures, trust, as well as consumer finance. However, after heavy losses in FY20, the company has divested almost all of its non-core business as directed by the authorities.
- Following the CITIC-led rescue plan and the equity transfer from the Ministry of Finance (MOF) to CITIC, CITIC has become its largest shareholder (26.46%). Other significant shareholders include MOF (24.76%), Zhongbaorongxin (18.08%), Cinda AMC (4.89%), China Life Insurance (4.50%), National Social Security Fund (3.08%), Warburg Pincus (2.57%), and ICBC Financial AM (2.44%). It was renamed to share the "CITIC" brand in Nov-23.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 10 Sep 2025CITIC’s support is strong (name change, investment in CEB and CITIC Ltd, subsidiary disposal, new management team, etc.) and more meaningful to the company compared to direct ownership by the government.
Derisking continues with lower property exposure, non-core businesses have largely been disposed of and the company is able to focus on its main DDA business per the guidance of the authorities.
While the company was able to deliver profit growth on the back of CITIC support and its associate interest holdings, core performance remains weak, and there could be continued volatility in the name.
AMCs may find it harder to dispose DDAs at good valuations amid a deceleration economic cycle. Longer holding periods will dampen return yields.
Key Metric
AS OF 10 Sep 2025| CNY mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 1H25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.10% | (2.20%) | 0.02% | 0.75% | 1.10% |
| ROE | 1.0% | (49.8%) | 3.6% | 18.4% | 21.1% |
| Total Capital Ratio | 13.0% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 15.7% | 16.0% |
| Leverage Ratio | 14.2x | 16.1x | 11.5x | 10.1x | 8.6x |
| Equity/Assets | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 02 Sep 2025CITIC AMC (ex-Huarong) continued to book profits 1H25, helped by investments in three listed SOEs. Core businesses remained weak and volatile, as the company continues to lower valuations on existing DDAs acquired many years ago. Its non-DDA financial assets also have a more volatile performance than peers. CITIC’s support is strong, derisking continues with a meaningful improvement in the provision coverage ratio, non-core businesses have all been cleared, and the company is able to focus on main DDA business per the authorities’ guidance. The capital adequacy ratio has improved meaningfully to 16%, surpassing Cinda. Disclosure remains poor. We expect it to trade ~30 bp wider than CCAMCL.
Recommendation Reviewed: September 02, 2025
Recommendation Changed: July 14, 2025
Featured Issuers
Bank of Philippine Islands
SK Hynix
Hyundai Motor
How may we help you?
Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Access this content:
If you are an existing investor, log in first to your Metrobank Wealth Manager account.
If you wish to start your wealth journey with us, click the “How To Sign Up” button.
Fundamental View
AS OF 05 Sep 2025Petron’s 1H25 results was weaker YoY; we expect Petron’s credit metrics to remain flat YoY in FY25 owing to higher capex and flat-to-slight decline % YoY EBITDA growth amid a low double-digit YoY decline in sales volume growth though partially supported by lower crude oil input costs
About two-third of its total revenues are derived from the Philippines and are indexed to Dubai crude prices, which allows for smooth cost pass-throughs and good insulation from crude price volatility.
Free cash flows are typically negative due to inventory fluctuations that outweigh low capex.
Business Description
AS OF 05 Sep 2025- Petron is the largest oil refining and retailing company in the Philippines, and the third largest player in Malaysia. It maintains a 24% market share in the Philippines (followed by Shell and Caltex) and a 20% market share in Malaysia (largest being Petronas), based on total fuel sales volumes.
- Petron has a total refining capacity of 268k barrels/day (bpd) and accounts for about 30% of the Philippines' fuel needs. Its petroleum refining facilities include the Limay Refinery in Bataan, Philippines (capacity of 180k bpd; 67% of total) and the Port Dickson Refinery in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia (capacity of 88k bpd; remaining 33% of total).
- Petron's refineries process crude oil into a full range of petroleum products including gasoline, diesel, LPG, jet fuel, kerosene and petrochemicals.
- It further markets and retails these fuel products through its fuel service stations located across the Philippines (~1,800 outlets) and Malaysia (>800 outlets).
- Petron sources its crude oil supplies from third-party suppliers, namely Saudi Aramco, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation and Exxon Mobil, which are bought on the basis of term contracts and in the spot market.
- Petron mainly supplies its petroleum and fuel products to customers in Malaysia and the Philippines (~95% of annual revenue).
- Petron is 68% owned by San Miguel Corporation (SMC), one of the largest and most diversified conglomerates in the Philippines based on total revenues and assets. SMC's CEO, Mr. Ramon Ang, is also Petron's CEO.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 05 Sep 2025Petron cannot fully pass on higher crude oil input costs to customers in Malaysia.
Petron operates in low-margin business (EBITDA margins ~5%) and maintains elevated credit metrics.
Petron is highly dependent on its Limay petroleum refining complex that makes up two-thirds of its total refining capacity (67%). Any events that disrupt the refinery’s operations could adversely affect Petron’s total revenues.
Key Metric
AS OF 05 Sep 2025| PHP bn | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 1H24 | 1H25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 74.0% | 75.1% | 74.5% | 74.1% | 72.2% |
| Net Debt to Book Cap | 65.5% | 68.2% | 67.1% | 66.5% | 62.6% |
| Debt/Total Equity | 284.2% | 301.4% | 292.0% | 285.8% | 259.3% |
| Debt/Total Assets | 70.2% | 67.6% | 64.9% | 65.1% | 61.7% |
| Gross Leverage | 10.9x | 7.1x | 7.4x | 6.8x | 6.9x |
| Net Leverage | 9.7x | 6.4x | 6.7x | 6.1x | 6.0x |
| Interest Coverage | 2.2x | 2.2x | 1.9x | 2.1x | 2.0x |
| EBITDA Margin | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 02 Oct 2025We move Petron to Market perform from Outperform, as we think the $475 mn 7.35% c.Sep-2028 perp has tightened to where we see fair value. That said, we continue to like Petron’s c.2028 for its relatively high coupon and hence high carry. Overall, we think Petron is a stable credit with an improving credit outlook. We like its full cost passthroughs for its operations in retail O&G in the Philippines, low capex, consistently improving net leverage metric (LTM 1H25: 6x), manageable debt maturity profile, proven willingness/ability to call back its perps by their first call date, strong parental support from the domestically well-reputed San Miguel Group and a 3-year tenor to first call that limits duration risk.
Recommendation Reviewed: October 02, 2025
Recommendation Changed: October 02, 2025
Featured Issuers
Bank of Philippine Islands
SK Hynix
Hyundai Motor
How may we help you?
Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Access this content:
If you are an existing investor, log in first to your Metrobank Wealth Manager account.
If you wish to start your wealth journey with us, click the “How To Sign Up” button.
Fundamental View
AS OF 03 Sep 2025Petronas’ 1H25 and FY24 credit metrics remained resilient even as EBITDA fell as we had expected.
Despite the lower YoY outlook for O&G price realizations in FY25, we expect Petronas’ credit profile to remain resilient in FY25 and maintain its net cash position, aided by resilient domestic demand and still-positive FCFs.
We take comfort in Petronas’ strong support from the Government of Malaysia, given it is strategically vested with Malaysia’s entire oil & gas resources and provides a substantial source of government income.
Sizable O&G and renewable capex and high dividend payouts could restrain improvements in Petronas’ credit metrics and free cash flows.
Business Description
AS OF 03 Sep 2025- Petronas is an integrated oil and gas company, wholly owned and controlled by the Government of Malaysia.
- Its activities span the entire up/mid/downstream value chain both domestically and internationally. Key products and services provided include the sale and marketing of petroleum products, crude oil and condensates, LNG, natural and processed gas, petrochemicals, shipping services, property development and automotive engineering.
- Petronas carries out its exploration, development and production activities via production sharing contracts (“PSCs”), mostly with international O&G companies and Petronas' wholly-owned subsidiaries.
- Its Downstream segment is aimed at refining, supplying, trading, manufacturing and marketing of crude oil, petroleum products, and petrochemical products. Its key projects and factories include Pengerang Integrated Complex (PIC), Sabah Ammonia Urea in Sabah, and Integrated Aroma Ingredients Complex in Gebeng, Kuantan.
- Its Gas and New Energy division was set up in FY19 and groups all of Petronas' LNG, gas and renewable revenues into a single segment. Activities within this division include production of LNG, processing and transportation of gas and solar power production.
- Its 6 listed subsidiaries include MISC Berhad (57.56%), KLCC Property (75.46%), Petronas Chemicals Group Berhad (64.35%), Petronas Gas Berhad (51%), Petronas Dagangan Berhad (63.94%), and Bintulu Port Holdings Berhad (28.52%).
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 03 Sep 2025Broad growth slowdown concerns could hamper sales of Petronas’ Downstream (petroleum products) and Gas & New Energy (LNG and natural gas) segments.
Prolonged periods of low crude oil prices could harm upstream O&G EBITDA (which typically contributes 50%-70% of total profit after tax), albeit mitigated partly by stronger downstream O&G EBITDA.
Sizable capex on domestic O&G and renewable energy ventures could restrain improvements in Petronas’ credit metrics and free cash flows.
Petronas is regularly required to pay dividends to the Government of Malaysia, which may weigh on its cash flows.
We remain watchful of how the dispute between Petronas and Sarawak state government unfolds, its impact on Petronas’ financials and its market position in the Malaysian O&G sector.
Key Metric
AS OF 03 Sep 2025| MYR mn | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 1H24 | 1H25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 18.4% | 18.2% | 18.0% | 18.6% | 20.0% |
| Net Debt to Book Cap | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m |
| Debt/Total Equity | 22.6% | 22.2% | 21.9% | 22.8% | 25.1% |
| Debt/Total Assets | 14.7% | 14.4% | 14.5% | 14.3% | 15.8% |
| Gross Leverage | 0.6x | 0.8x | 0.9x | 0.8x | 2.1x |
| Net Leverage | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m |
| Interest Coverage | 33.9x | 24.9x | 21.8x | 24.4x | 18.6x |
| EBITDA Margin | 50.7% | 44.8% | 42.0% | 43.6% | 45.3% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 03 Sep 2025We maintain our M/P rec on Petronas and remove our preference for its 2026-2032 as our anticipated tightening has played out; Petronas’ short-dated have tightened ~30 bp since we first put out our preference. We compare Petronas to Pertamina and think its $ bonds now trade within our fair value range against Pertamina’s. We like Petronas’s larger EBITDA, net cash position, more regular financial reporting than Pertamina and Malaysia’s relative policy stability. With the Petronas vs Sarawak state dispute nearing a resolution, we are more comfortable with the credit though we remain watchful of any negative development should Sarawak further contest the reported agreement.
Recommendation Reviewed: September 03, 2025
Recommendation Changed: September 07, 2020
Featured Issuers
Bank of Philippine Islands
SK Hynix
Hyundai Motor
How may we help you?
Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Access this content:
If you are an existing investor, log in first to your Metrobank Wealth Manager account.
If you wish to start your wealth journey with us, click the “How To Sign Up” button.
Fundamental View
AS OF 29 Aug 2025Business Description
AS OF 29 Aug 2025- SK Hynix is one of the world’s largest memory semiconductor companies. As an Integrated Device Manufacturer (IDM), it engages in the design, manufacturing and sale of advanced memory semiconductors. It derives 77% of 2Q25 revenues from the sale of DRAM (dynamic random-access memory), 21% from NAND Flash, and the remaining 2% from CMOS Image Sensors and foundry services. The company's products are essential to a wide range of electronic devices, including PCs, servers, graphic cards, and mobile devices.
- SK Hynix holds the largest global market share (2Q25: 40%) in DRAM and second largest in NAND Flash (2Q25: 21%).
- SK Hynix is a member of SK Group, South Korea's second largest conglomerate by asset, and is 20.1%-owned by SK Square.
- The company has manufacturing facilities located in (1) South Korea — Icheon (DRAM, NAND), and Cheongju (NAND); and (2) China — Wuxi (DRAM), Dalian (NAND); and packaging & testing facilities in Chongqing, China.
- SK Hynix had a market capitalization of KRW 194.9 tn as of 29 August 2025.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 29 Aug 2025- The memory sector is subjected to significant boom/bust cycles, leading to volatility in its revenue and EBITDA margin. During an upcycle, memory vendors typically expand capacity to meet strong end-demand from PC, smartphones, and servers; however, the long-lead time for new plants could result in an oversupply when end-demand is tapering off.
- Capex intensity (as % of revenues) and R&D costs are elevated even in downcycles for SK Hynix, as it needs to maintain technological leadership and fast evolving product requirements from customers.
- SK Hynix has large production and revenue exposure to China; rising US-China tension and restrictive US chip exports to China could destabilize the long-term prospect of its China production and weigh on its $ bonds. Though, in Oct-23 SK Hynix was designated as a “Validated End User” by the US government, which gave it an indefinite waiver for importing US chip gears to their Chinese plants.
- SK Hynix may be vulnerable to US tariff risk; the company derived 73% of 1Q25 revenues from the US.
Key Metric
AS OF 29 Aug 2025| KRW bn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | LTM 2Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 23.5% | 28.1% | 37.8% | 25.6% | 21.9% |
| Net Debt to Book Cap | 13.3% | 21.2% | 27.7% | 11.6% | 6.9% |
| Debt/Total Equity | 30.8% | 39.2% | 60.7% | 34.4% | 28.1% |
| Debt/Total Assets | 19.9% | 23.9% | 32.4% | 21.2% | 19.0% |
| Gross Leverage | 0.8x | 1.2x | 5.8x | 0.7x | 0.5x |
| Net Leverage | 0.5x | 0.9x | 4.3x | 0.3x | 0.2x |
| Interest Coverage | 87.3x | 38.7x | 3.8x | 26.5x | 42.0x |
| EBITDA Margin | 52.8% | 46.2% | 17.1% | 53.8% | 57.7% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 29 Oct 2025We shift SK Hynix back to Market perform from Outperform following its strong 3Q25 results; the company reported an acceleration in topline growth thanks to an improvement in DRAM and NAND pricing, as well as strong DRAM shipments, higher EBITDA margin on a better product mix, free operating cash flow expansion, and it turned net cash during the quarter. We remain constructive on SK Hynix credit outlook for the next 15 months, and expect the company to further expand its net cash position. That said, we think its current spreads have priced in its constructive credit outlook and positive rating agencies by all three rating agencies, as it now trades tighter than Asia BBB+ corporates and Micron.
Recommendation Reviewed: October 29, 2025
Recommendation Changed: October 29, 2025
Featured Issuers
Bank of Philippine Islands
SK Hynix
Hyundai Motor