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Fundamental View
AS OF 27 Nov 2025Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) is the fourth largest commercial bank in Indonesia.
The bank is majority-owned by the Indonesian government (60%) and receives strong state support in the form of well-established relationships with SOEs, an area that the bank heavily loans to.
BNI’s asset quality has shown a steady improvement after COVID headwinds in Indonesia, through de-risking its loan portfolio by focusing growth on top tier private corporates. It is now going for balanced loan growth across segments.
Business Description
AS OF 27 Nov 2025- Bank Negara Indonesia was founded in 1946, initially as a central bank, before becoming a commercial bank in 1968. It is now the 4th largest commercial bank in Indonesia by assets.
- The bank is majority-owned by the state (60%) and focuses its lending toward SOEs and domestic corporates.
- BNI's loan book is split 56% corporates, 24% small and medium enterprises and 19% retail, with the remaining coming from its subsidiaries at September 2025.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 27 Nov 2025The liquidity environment showed a turning point in September, aided by BI rate cuts, smaller SRBI issuance and yields, higher government spending, and the government’s cash injection into key state banks, supporting loan growth momentum.
While Indonesia’s growth is projected at ~5% in 2025 and could pickup over the medium term under the Prabowo administration, volatile sentiment towards Indonesia over growth slowdown concerns, weak state finances, and governance and policy uncertainties could weigh on spreads.
We see governance risks as increased with the move of SOE banks including BNI to Danantara; higher dividend payouts to fund government policies are likely. However, we are comfortable with the CET1 ratio dropping to the 14-16% range of other APAC banks.
Asset quality is showing pressure in retail and medium commercials, yet BNI is shifting its growth focus from large corporates and safer retail to more balanced mix. We see this as margin pressure and possibly policy driven. There could be more state directed lending to less commercially viable projects, but the effects would take a few years to play out.
Key Metric
AS OF 27 Nov 2025| IDR bn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 9M25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP ROA | 3.35% | 3.42% | 3.32% | 3.10% | 2.68% |
| ROA | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% |
| ROE | 9.9% | 15.0% | 15.2% | 13.9% | 12.4% |
| Equity/Assets | 12.07% | 12.32% | 13.61% | 14.18% | 12.96% |
| CET1 Ratio | 17.4% | 17.5% | 20.2% | 18.9% | 18.7% |
| NPL Ratio | 3.70% | 2.81% | 2.14% | 1.97% | 1.96% |
| Provisions/Average Loans | 3.23% | 1.83% | 1.41% | 1.08% | 0.95% |
| LDR | 79.9% | 84.0% | 85.7% | 96.3% | 86.9% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 28 Oct 2025BNI is the 4th largest bank in Indonesia by assets and is 60% government owned. It thus has well-established relationships with SOEs. Asset quality was weaker than at Mandiri with a higher NPL ratio and credit costs, but has improved on its pivot to better quality segments since ’21. Funding cost pressure from the tight liquidity environment has eased with recent government stimulus, and loan growth has picked up. Asset quality however is showing strains in retai, despite which it is looking at riskier segments for growth. Fundamentals though remain sound with strong capital and decent profitability. Governance risks have increased with the move to Danantara. We expect capital ratios to decline, but would be fine with a 14-16% CET1 ratio. We currently have BNI on U/P due to tight RV.
Recommendation Reviewed: October 28, 2025
Recommendation Changed: August 04, 2025
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Fundamental View
AS OF 27 Nov 2025Bank Mandiri (Mandiri) is the largest state-owned bank in Indonesia with 60% government ownership. We therefore expect a very high likelihood of government support in times of need.
Mandiri’s strength had been its large corporate loan portfolio, which has allowed the bank to book lower credit costs compared to its peers over the pandemic. Mandiri is well capitalised in line with the other Indonesian banks that have relatively high CET1 ratios in the region, though we expect this to be reduced by higher dividend payouts over time.
Business Description
AS OF 27 Nov 2025- Bank Mandiri was established as a result of the mergers of four state-owned banks, Bank Bumi Daya, Bank Dagang Negara, Bank Ekspor Impor Indonesia, and Bank Pembangunan Indonesia, in the late 1990s. The bank was first listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2003.
- The Indonesian government holds a 60% stake in the bank. Foreign investors have a 32% shareholding while domestic investors have another 8%.
- Corporates accounted for 38% of total loans, consumer for 7%, micro & payroll for 11%, SME for 5%, commercial for 18% and subsidiaries 21% at September 2025.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 27 Nov 2025The liquidity environment showed a turning point in September, aided by BI rate cuts, smaller SRBI issuance and yields, higher government spending, and the government’s cash injection into key state banks, supporting loan growth momentum.
While Indonesia’s growth is projected at ~5% in 2025 and could pickup over the medium term under the Prabowo administration, volatile sentiment towards Indonesia over growth slowdown concerns, weak state finances, and governance and policy uncertainties could weigh on spreads.
We see governance risks as increased with the move of SOE banks including BNI to Danantara; higher dividend payouts to fund government policies are likely. However, we are comfortable with the CET1 ratio dropping to the 14-16% range of other APAC banks.
Asset quality has trended better than peers due to its loan book and growth being predominantly in large corporates. However, we see the possibility of more state directed lending to less commercially viable projects, but the effects would take a few years to play out.
Key Metric
AS OF 27 Nov 2025| IDR bn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 9M25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP ROA | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% |
| ROA | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% |
| ROE | 14.2% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 20.5% | 17.8% |
| Equity/Assets | 11.9% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 11.0% |
| CET1 Ratio | 18.4% | 18.6% | 20.8% | 19.6% | 18.9% |
| NPL Ratio | 2.72% | 1.92% | 1.19% | 1.12% | 1.19% |
| Provisions/Average Loans | 1.98% | 1.41% | 0.79% | 0.77% | 0.71% |
| LDR | 81% | 81% | 89% | 98% | 94% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 28 Oct 2025Mandiri is the biggest bank in Indonesia by assets and 60% government owned. It weathered the pandemic well given fairly resilient asset quality as large corporates are more than 1/3 of its book. It is however turning to more balanced growth across segments in FY25, and a recent board and management reshuffling could prompt changes to strategy. Funding cost pressure from the tight liquidity environment has eased with recent government stimulus, and loan growth has picked up. Soft economic momentum and higher governance risks however are headwinds. Fundamentals though remain sound with strong capital and healthy profitability. We expect higher dividend payouts to gradually reduce capital ratios but are comfortable with a 14-16% CET1 ratio. We have Mandiri on U/P due to tight RV.
Recommendation Reviewed: October 28, 2025
Recommendation Changed: September 02, 2025
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Region: Japan
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Fundamental View
AS OF 26 Nov 2025After reorganising and building up capital for the full impact of Basel 3, SMFG has recently been acquisitive to develop its next phase of growth, and now has a lower capital buffer than Mizuho.
It has a strong retail, mid and large corporate franchise in Japan, but its securities arm SMBC Nikko punches below weight.
Given its size and systemic importance, SMFG is considered too big to fail, and will be supported by the Japanese government if needed.
Business Description
AS OF 26 Nov 2025- The core unit of SMFG is Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp (SMBC), whose main predecessors were Sumitomo Bank and Mitsui Bank.
- SMFG's group companies include the securities firm SMBC Nikko, SMBC Trust Bank, SMBC Card Company, SMBC Consumer Finance, Sumitomo Mitsui Finance and Leasing, SMFG India Credit Company (SMICC), Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, and SMBC Aviation Capital.
- SMFG does not have a large trust business as Sumitomo Trust and Chuo Mitsui Trust chose not to join SMFG, but merged with each other to form the separate Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings.
- It has been acquisitive over the years, particularly in emerging Asia and leasing assets. In 2021, the group took a 49% stake in Vietnam's FE Credit, 74.9% of Indian NBFI Fullerton Capital (now called SMICC), 4.99% of Philippines' RCBC, and 4.5% of US investment bank Jefferies. In 2022, it increased its stake in RCBC to 20%. In 2023, it acquired a 15% stake in Vietnam's VP Bank, and increased its stake in Jefferies from 4.5% to 15%, and in 2024 took its stake in SMICC to 100%. In 2025 it took a 24% stake in India's Yes Bank, and increased its Jefferies stake to 20%.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 26 Nov 2025SMFG has the strongest Japan retail franchise amongst its peers, and a very strong corporate banking franchise.
Similar to the other megabanks, SMFG aims to focus more on the US, and reduce low return RWAs in Europe and Asia ex-Japan.
SMFG has made a number of acquisitions and taken stakes in banks and NBFIs in Vietnam, the Philippines, India and Indonesia. The group took JPY 135 bn of goodwill impairments in FY24 on its Vietnam investments. RoE on these investments has been poor.
It has increased its 15% stake in Jefferies to 20%, to develop revenue opportunities for SMBC Nikko. Further investments in SMBC Nikko will be required.
Its CET1 ratio buffer is ~200 bp, which we would like to see maintained.
Key Metric
AS OF 26 Nov 2025| JPY bn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 1H25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Revenue/Average Assets | 0.64% | 0.68% | 0.70% | 0.82% | 0.88% |
| Operating Income/Average Assets | 1.23% | 1.26% | 1.39% | 1.44% | 1.58% |
| Operating Expense/Operating Income | 62% | 61% | 60% | 58% | 53% |
| Pre-Impairment Operating Profit / Average Assets | 0.48% | 0.51% | 0.58% | 0.60% | 0.79% |
| Impairment charge/Average Loans | (0.31%) | (0.22%) | (0.27%) | (0.32%) | (0.16%) |
| ROAA | 0.30% | 0.32% | 0.36% | 0.41% | 0.64% |
| ROAE | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 12.5% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 17 Nov 2025SMFG’s banking business had performed well, while its non-bank subsidiaries had underperformed over FY21-22. The group had a better 2H vs a poor 1H23, with improved trading and fee revenues, partially offset by higher credit costs at the non-bank businesses. The group became acquisitive from 2021, taking a 49% stake in a leading Vietnamese NBFI and 15% of its parent (VP Bank), 20% of RCBC of the Philippines, 74.9% of NBFI Fullerton India (now 100%), 4.5% in US IB Jefferies (increasing to 15%), and 24% of India’s Yes Bank for the next stage of growth. Its high CET1 ratio has been whittled down by acquisitions. FY24 results were boosted by share sales and structured investment trusts, 1H25 showed a large jump on base effects. Govt. support is assured. We like its PerpNC10 AT1s for duration.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 17, 2025
Recommendation Changed: August 05, 2025
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Region: Japan
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Fundamental View
AS OF 26 Nov 2025MUFG is the largest of Japan’s three megabanks, and has the most diversified operations by business line and geography. It had also been the most acquisitive till the early 2020s.
Core profitability had been weak due to Japan’s ultra-low interest rates and growth; that improved post an efficiency drive and a CEO change in April 2020; the bank has improved international margins and fee income, and benefits from rising domestic interest rates.
Given its size and systemic importance, MUFG is considered too big to fail, and will be supported by the Japanese government if needed.
Business Description
AS OF 26 Nov 2025- The 2 main banks of MUFG are MUFG Bank (earlier Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ or BTMU) & Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking. In the early stages of Japan's long banking crisis, Bank of Tokyo merged with Mitsubishi Bank, and in the late stages they absorbed UFJ (former Sanwa Bank & Tokai Bank) while Mitsubishi Trust absorbed Toyo Trust & Nippon Trust.
- The group includes consumer lenders Mitsubishi-UFJ NICOS & ACOM, and securities/IB JVs with Morgan Stanley. MUFG invested in Morgan Stanley in 2008 and now has a ~20% stake. In Dec-22, it completed the sale of its US retail and commercial bank, MUFG Union Bank, to US Bancorp.
- It has a majority stake in Thailand's Bank of Ayudhya (now Krungsri), 20% stakes in Vietnam's Vietinbank and Philippines' Security Bank, and 100% of Indonesia's Bank Danamon.
- In 2019, it acquired Colonial First State from Commonwealth Bank of Australia to strengthen its global asset management business, in 2020 it invested $700 mn in SE Asia's Grab, and more recently has bought Home Credit's Philippine and Indonesian subsidiaries, Link (an Australian pension fund administrator), auto loan companies in Indonesia, Albacore Capital, StanChart's Indonesian retail operations, and a stake in an Indian NBFI.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 26 Nov 2025Its recent divisional performance has been strong, with the domestic businesses benefiting from higher BOJ rates, and robust growth in fee income.
Credit costs have been rising because of increased exposure to personal unsecured loans in Japan and Southeast Asia, as well as higher-risk lending in Southeast Asia.
Its close relationship with Morgan Stanley has led it to take large positions in US corporate finance loans, which has been problematic on occasion.
We see limited risk from rising JGB yields as the large equity unrealised gains dwarf the unrealised losses on the bond portfolio.
Key Metric
AS OF 26 Nov 2025| JPY bn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 1H25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Revenue/Average Assets | 0.57% | 0.79% | 0.64% | 0.73% | 0.73% |
| Operating Income/Average Assets | 1.11% | 1.22% | 1.23% | 1.22% | 1.48% |
| Operating Expense/Operating Income | 69% | 65% | 61% | 67% | 56% |
| Pre-Impairment Operating Profit / Average Assets | 0.34% | 0.43% | 0.48% | 0.40% | 0.65% |
| Impairment charge/Average Loans | (0.30%) | (0.61%) | (0.36%) | 0.00% | (0.12%) |
| ROAA | 0.32% | 0.30% | 0.39% | 0.47% | 0.65% |
| ROAE | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 12.5% |
| CET1 post Basel 3 reforms excl. secs gains | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 10.5% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 19 Dec 2025MUFG is the largest of the megabanks with more diversified business lines than its peers. Digitalisation and operational efficiency improvements, in addition to higher rates in Japan and the US, had led to much better results in FY24. Lending discipline has lifted international margins; domestic margins though lag its peers. Its ~20% shareholding in Morgan Stanley has been a boon. Its $ liquidity is the best amongst its peers, and government support is assured. Its CET1 ratio ratio has fallen to ~180 bp, which we see as low; pro-forma for the Shriram acquisition it will fall to a particularly low ~120 bp. However, we see the group’s earnings power improving from BOJ rate rises and so continue with our Market perform recommendation. We see current levels on its 6NC5 of G+72 bp as fair.
Recommendation Reviewed: December 19, 2025
Recommendation Changed: August 05, 2025
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Fundamental View
AS OF 25 Nov 2025UBS agreed to acquire Credit Suisse in March 2023 after the latter collapsed following a severe liquidity crisis.
CS was a large and complex organisation, so the integration, and the inevitable associated losses and costs, will dominate UBS’s strategic outlook and financial performance for several years.
However, UBS was able to negotiate substantial downside protection which should shield it from losses at CS.
Away from CS, UBS has reshaped its business model, with a greater emphasis on wealth management and less focus on investment banking, particularly fixed income.
Its earnings remain somewhat dependent on capital market conditions, but its capital, asset quality and profitability ratios have been among the strongest for European banks.
Business Description
AS OF 25 Nov 2025- Headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, UBS has private, corporate and institutional clients worldwide and retail clients in Switzerland. It is one of the world's largest wealth managers.
- It completed the acquisition of CS on 12 June 2023. It has merged CS’s domestic Swiss bank (Credit Suisse Schweiz AG) with its own domestic bank (UBS Switzerland AG) in 2024, keeping the CS brand “for the time being”.
- CS’s holding company (Credit Suisse Group AG) has been merged into UBS Group AG, so that the group has a single holding company, and the operating subsidiaries, including UBS AG and Credit Suisse AG, were merged on 31 May 2024.
- UBS operates through its Corporate Center and four business divisions: Global Wealth Management, Personal & Corporate Banking, Asset Management, and the Investment Bank, plus a new Non-core and Legacy division following the acquisition of CS.
- The Investment Bank has been restructured in recent years to scale back fixed income trading and focus on equities trading and origination & advisory business.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 25 Nov 2025The proposed amendments to the Swiss ‘Too Big To Fail’ capital and TLAC framework by the Swiss authorities could result in substantially higher capital requirements for UBS.
The decision of the Swiss Federal Administrative Court in October 2025 that the write-down of Credit Suisse AT1s by FINMA in March 2023 was unlawful creates uncertainty about any possible liability for UBS.
A French court imposed fines and civil damages of €4.5 bn ($5.1 bn) in February 2019, which UBS appealed. The French Supreme Court overturned the penalties and damages in November 2023, and the case has been remanded to the Court of Appeal for a retrial.
Key Metric
AS OF 25 Nov 2025| $ mn | 3Q25 | Y24 | Y23 | Y22 | Y21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return On Equity | 11.1% | 6.0% | 38.4% | 13.0% | 12.4% |
| Total Revenues Margin | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% |
| Cost/Income | 77.0% | 84.8% | 95.0% | 72.1% | 73.6% |
| CET1 Ratio (Transitional) | 14.8% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 15.0% |
| CET1 Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 14.8% | 14.3% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 15.0% |
| Leverage Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 182% | 188% | 216% | 164% | 155% |
| Impaired Loans (Gross)/Total Loans | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 07 Nov 2025We have Market perform recommendations on UBS AG (operating bank) and UBS Group (holding company) having revised the HoldCo recommendation from Underperform in August 2024. Its rescue and takeover of Credit Suisse in March 2023 was a seminal event that has had major consequences for UBS’s strategy and financial performance, as well as carrying substantial execution risk. However, the integration is on track, and UBS’s performance has been steadily improving. Capital, asset quality and liquidity all look strong, although Swiss regulatory capital requirements are set to increase significantly in coming years.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 07, 2025
Recommendation Changed: August 14, 2024
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Fundamental View
AS OF 25 Nov 2025Standard Chartered has been making good progress in the past few years, improving its asset quality and profitability and dealing with legacy litigation issues. Capital, funding and liquidity look solid.
However, tensions between China and the West, including reciprocal trade tariffs between the US and China, and global economic headwinds continue to cloud the near term outlook.
Its unusual business mix – headquartered and regulated in the UK but operating primarily in Asia, Africa and the Middle East – means it is well diversified but sensitive to geopolitical developments and emerging market volatility.
Business Description
AS OF 25 Nov 2025- Standard Chartered PLC is the holding company and listed entity of the group, in which Standard Chartered Bank is the main operating company.
- Although Standard Chartered is headquartered in London and therefore subject to UK banking regulation, its operations are mainly in Asia (Hong Kong is its biggest single market, Africa and the Middle East. It is present in over 60 markets.
- It has the usual variety of businesses across these regions, including corporate and institutional banking, retail banking, commercial banking and private banking. It specialises in trade finance and cross-border cash management.
- It is classified as a G-SIB, with a regulatory capital buffer of 1%.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 25 Nov 2025Political tensions in Hong Kong, a slowing economy in China and a weak commercial real estate sector, and a US/China trade war have threatened the growth and stability of some of Standard Chartered’s key markets.
A number of Standard Chartered’s markets have underperformed in the past but are now turnaround stories, including India, Korea, Indonesia and the UAE.
The group has had to improve its AML and sanctions controls. In April 2019, it paid a $947 mn fine to US authorities over breaches of US sanctions and a £102 mn fine to the UK FCA for AML weaknesses.
Key Metric
AS OF 25 Nov 2025| $ mn | 3Q25 | Y24 | Y23 | Y22 | Y21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Equity | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% |
| Total Revenues Margin | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| Cost/Income | 61.5% | 64.0% | 64.1% | 66.9% | 74.3% |
| CET1 Ratio (Transitional) | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 14.1% |
| CET1 Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 13.9% | 14.1% |
| Leverage Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| Loan Impairment Charge | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Impaired Loans (Gross)/Total Loans | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 02 Dec 2025We revised our recommendation on Standard Chartered HoldCo senior from Underperform to Market perform on 26 April 2023, but we changed our recommendations on Tier 2 and AT1 from Fair to Rich on 10 January 2024. The changes reflect StanChart’s recent resilient performance, while taking into account the potential impact from US tariffs policies and exposure to China. Capital and liquidity ratios are robust, and profitability has improved significantly, but the bank continues to face geopolitical tensions inherent in its extensive operations in Hong Kong, China and the rest of Asia.
Recommendation Reviewed: December 02, 2025
Recommendation Changed: April 26, 2023
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.T-Mobile US
- Sector: Technology Media and Telecommunications
- Sub Sector: Telecommunications
- Region: US
- Bond: TMUS 3.5 31
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.275%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 24 Nov 2025We expect T-Mobile will maintain its position as the industry leader in postpaid phone net additions, service revenue and EBITDA growth in 2025. We think the company has significant subscriber runway remaining in the suburban/rural and enterprise markets.
Adjusted net leverage (2.5x at 3Q25) is below AT&T/Verizon. Relatively strong EBITDA growth and a modest dividend commitment results in greater financial flexibility than peers.
T-Mobile benefits from the strongest spectrum position in the industry, including an average of 181 MHz in the 2.5 GHz band, which results in better 5G network coverage than AT&T and Verizon.
Business Description
AS OF 24 Nov 2025- TMUS is the one of the top 3 U.S. wireless carriers and is owned ~51% by Deutsche Telekom (DT). On April 1, 2020, TMUS and S completed an all-stock merger, valuing S at an EV of approximately $59.7 bn.
- TMUS ended 2024 with ~130 mn customers, including 104 mn postpaid and 25 mn prepaid.
- TMUS reaches 330+mn POPs with its Extended Range 5G network (using the 600 MHz spectrum) and reaches 300mn customers with its Ultra Capacity 5G.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 24 Nov 2025Converged wireless/broadband offers from cable operators raises the risk of pricing pressure in the mature consumer wireless market. AT&T and Verizon have also made sizable fiber acquisitions, enhancing their ability to offer converged services.
The company has not shied away from acquisitions. T-Mobile recently acquired Mint Mobile, two FTTH JVs and US Cellular. So far, M&A has not had much impact on T-Mobile’s credit metrics, but further moves into FTTH may be received poorly by investors.
Key Metric
AS OF 24 Nov 2025| $ mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | LTM 3Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 80,118 | 79,571 | 78,558 | 81,400 | 85,847 |
| Organic Revenue Growth | 7.3% | (0.7%) | (1.3%) | 3.6% | 7.3% |
| EBITDA | 26,924 | 27,821 | 29,428 | 31,864 | 33,406 |
| Adj. EBITDA Growth | (64.0%) | 33.9% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | 33.6% | 35.0% | 37.5% | 39.1% | 38.9% |
| CapEx % of Sales | 15.4% | 17.6% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 11.3% |
| Total Debt | 79,574 | 78,425 | 83,586 | 84,255 | 90,107 |
| Net Debt | 72,943 | 73,918 | 78,451 | 78,846 | 86,797 |
| Gross Leverage | 3.4x | 3.0x | 2.9x | 2.7x | 2.7x |
| Net Leverage | 3.0x | 2.7x | 2.6x | 2.4x | 2.5x |
| Interest Coverage | 7.2x | 8.0x | 8.3x | 8.7x | 8.7x |
| FCF as % of Debt | 13.7% | 13.2% | 19.2% | 23.0% | 22.1% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 23 Oct 2025We expect TMUS will once again lead the Big 3 in major KPIs in 2025, including ~6% EBITDA growth. We view earnings/growth visibility as higher than peers, with the outlook supported by its leading 5G mid-band coverage (over 300 million PoPs with ~200 MHz) and historical under-penetration in rural and enterprise markets. T-Mobile also boasts the lowest leverage (~2.5x) and strongest FCF/debt ratio amongst the Wireless Big 3, while its rising FCF generation and comparatively low dividend commitment provide flexibility for selective M&A. Despite the rising focus on convergence, we believe TMUS will stick with its off-balance sheet strategy for FTTH JVs and view the risk of a transformational broadband acquisition (ILEC or cable) as extremely low.
Recommendation Reviewed: October 23, 2025
Recommendation Changed: March 18, 2021
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.State Bank of India
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Country: India
- Bond: SBIIN 4.875 28
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 5.23%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 19 Nov 2025State Bank of India (SBI) is the largest state-owned bank in India and is in some respects the country’s flagship bank. Given the bank’s ~55% government ownership and systemic importance, government support for SBI is very strong.
The bank’s capital buffers are relatively low, but we take comfort in the strong government support.
Business Description
AS OF 19 Nov 2025- State Bank of India is the largest commercial bank in India. Its predecessor banks date back to the 19th century. In the early 20th century, they merged to form the Imperial Bank of India, which became the State Bank of India after India gained independence in 1947.
- The Government of India remains the largest shareholder with a 55.03% stake. Per the SBI Act, the government's shareholding cannot fall below 55%.
- SBI's merged with its 5 associate banks and Bharatiya Mahila Bank in 2018. The merger catapulted SBI into one of the world's 50 largest banks.
- The bank has 85% of its loans in the domestic market, and has steadily increased its international business too over the past few years with offices across all international business centres. The domestic book is split 43% retail, 33% corporates, ~14% SMEs and ~10% to the agri segment as of September 2025.
- It has diversified its operations with well regarded subsidiaries in the areas of fund management, credit cards, insurance, and capital markets.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 19 Nov 2025SBI does not have a strong buffer vs. the regulatory minimum of 8%, but its size, systemic importance and majority government shareholding confer particularly strong government support. But consequentially, any deterioration in the sovereign ratings will also affect the bank’s credit.
RBI repo rate cuts will impact the NIM in FY26-27, with another 25 bp reduction on the table in December. System loan growth has been slow despite improved system liquidity, but picked up in F2Q26. Momentum should sustain into F2H26 given GST rate cuts and the 3Q festive season. A sustained pickup in private sector capex though hinges on consumption strength enduring beyond the festive period.
We are cautious about pockets of stress in Indian retail, particularly unsecured retail and microfinance. Asset quality however is trending well as SBI’s personal unsecured loans book is ~95% to salaried employees of top tier corporates and the government.
Key Metric
AS OF 19 Nov 2025| INR mn | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | 1H26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIM | 3.12% | 3.37% | 3.28% | 3.09% | 2.93% |
| ROAA | 0.67% | 0.96% | 1.04% | 1.10% | 1.15% |
| ROAE | 11.9% | 16.5% | 17.3% | 17.3% | 16.4% |
| Equity to Assets | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% |
| CET1 Ratio | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 11.7% |
| Gross NPA Ratio | 3.97% | 2.78% | 2.24% | 1.82% | 1.73% |
| Provisions/Loans | 0.91% | 0.54% | 0.14% | 0.38% | 0.47% |
| PPP ROA | 1.58% | 1.59% | 1.60% | 1.72% | 1.69% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 05 Nov 2025SBI is India’s largest bank and a well-run franchise. Government support (55% shareholding, can’t drop below 51%) underpins SBI’s relative positioning, while fundamentally, it has good operating metrics and business plans, a comfortable LDR, sufficient CET1 ratio (recently boosted by an equity raise in Jul-25), and the best management among the public sector banks. India’s macro backdrop remains relatively robust and SBI’s lower risk personal unsecured loans clientele is supporting asset quality well. Lower rates should keep asset quality well-supported. Rate cuts will feed through to the NIM in FY26, but treasury gains have provided some offset. Loan growth has been off to a slow start for the sector but is picking up. We like the name, but have it on M/P as it trades fair.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 05, 2025
Recommendation Changed: April 25, 2025
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Fundamental View
AS OF 19 Nov 2025ICICI Bank is one of the leading private banks in India and has a good diversified business model, with well regarded life and general insurance subsidiaries.
Under its previous CEO, the bank suffered setbacks from sizeable bad debt problems in FY17/18, but the situation has since stabilised following a leadership change and the bank has done well ever since.
Business Description
AS OF 19 Nov 2025- The original Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India (ICICI) was established in 1955 by the World Bank, the Government of India and representatives of Indian industry as a financial institution to provide Indian businesses with medium and long-term project financing.
- In 1994, ICICI established a commercial banking subsidiary, ICICI Bank as India's financial sector opened up, and in 2002 ICICI merged with ICICI Bank, keeping the latter's name.
- Retail now accounts for 52% of its loan book, corporates are at 20%, while rural and business banking & SMEs are at 6% and 20% respectively, and overseas (which is being de-emphasised) consists of just 2% at F2Q26.
- The bank has well regarded life insurance (ICICI Prudential) and general insurance (ICICI Lombard) businesses.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 19 Nov 2025ICICI has been delivering both relatively strong loan and deposit growth momentum, while maintaining its leading LDR and profitability, in testament to its strong franchise.
RBI repo rate cuts will impact the NIM in FY26-27, with another 25 bp reduction on the table in December. System loan growth has been slow despite improved system liquidity, but picked up in F2Q26. Momentum should sustain into F2H26 given GST rate cuts and the 3Q festive season. A sustained pickup in private sector capex though hinges on consumption strength enduring beyond the festive period.
We are cautious about pockets of stress in Indian retail, particularly unsecured retail and microfinance. However, ICICI’s prudence towards the segment than peers, and the banks not playing in the small ticket segment in general, are keeping asset quality well controlled.
Leadership and governance issues under the previous CEO Ms. Chanda Kochhar have been dealt with well, since her replacement in Oct-18.
Key Metric
AS OF 19 Nov 2025| INR bn | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | 1H26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIM | 3.96% | 4.48% | 4.53% | 4.32% | 4.32% |
| ROAA | 1.77% | 2.13% | 2.37% | 2.37% | 2.36% |
| ROAE | 14.7% | 17.2% | 18.7% | 17.9% | 16.8% |
| Equity/Assets | 12.1% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 14.5% |
| CET1 Ratio | 17.3% | 16.9% | 15.4% | 15.8% | 14.9% |
| Gross NPA Ratio | 3.60% | 2.81% | 2.16% | 1.67% | 1.58% |
| Provisions/Loans | 0.97% | 0.65% | 0.30% | 0.34% | 0.37% |
| PPP ROA | 2.97% | 3.28% | 3.36% | 3.37% | 3.39% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 19 Nov 2025ICICI Bank is a preferred name among the Indian FIs we cover. We like the bank’s robust capital and loan loss buffers, strong asset quality, as well as peer leading margins, profitability and liquidity position. Under its previous CEO, the bank suffered setbacks from sizable bad debt problems in FY17/18 but the situation has since stabilised following a leadership change. The bank has emerged stronger from a capital, asset quality and earnings perspective, as it de-risked its book, and took pro-active actions to protect its capital by raising equity and selling small stakes in its well-regarded insurance subsidiaries to raise funds and set aside more general provisions. ICICI last issued a $ bond in 2017; we have ICICI on M/P due to likely low trading liquidity.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 19, 2025
Recommendation Changed: December 07, 2020
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Security Bank (PH)
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Country: Philippines
- Bond: SECBPM 5.5 29
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.694%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 18 Nov 2025Security Bank has historically been a wholesale focused bank. Rapid retail expansion pre-pandemic led to a large asset quality hit when COVID-19 struck. The bank completed revamping its underwriting processes at end-2021 and has resumed brisk growth in the retail book since.
The bank had a less well-established deposit franchise than most peers, resulting in a heavy hit to NIMs when rates rose this cycle. This has led it to focus aggressively on growing the higher yielding retail and MSME segments, the latter via forming a new business banking segment in 2022.
Previously high capital ratios have hence fallen; the CET1 ratio is a low 12-13%.
MUFG is a 20% shareholder of Security Bank.
Business Description
AS OF 18 Nov 2025- Security Bank was established in 1951 and obtained its universal banking license from the BSP in 1994. It is today the 9th largest bank in the Philippines.
- The bank is majority-owned by longtime owner Frederick Y. Dy (23.7%) and MUFG Bank (20%), which acquired its stake in April 2016.
- SB Finance, a joint venture between Security Bank and Thailand's Bank of Ayudhya (Krungsri), a consolidated subsidiary of MUFG, was launched in 2019. The unit is a consumer finance company formed to engage in the unsecured loans business in the Philippines, focusing on the lower mass retail segment.
- Security Bank's loan portfolio is 32% consumer, 4% MSME, 29% middle market and 35% corporate at 2Q25. The consumer and MSME book comprises mortgages (44%), auto loans (23%), credit card (23%) and small business loans (10%).
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 18 Nov 2025Any rating downgrade of the Philippine sovereign would have a negative impact on Security Bank.
RRR cuts and rates coming down, along with brisk growth in higher yielding but riskier retail and MSME (business banking), are supporting the NIM well. Asset quality indicators however have unsurprisingly started to weaken with a jump in credit costs. We remain cautious given the relatively thin reserve cover and capital buffer. Management is now exercising some prudence in retail loan growth after the emergence of stress in credit cards.
Capital ratios have fallen due to brisk RWA growth and now trail peers. We view current levels as low, but do not rule out capital support from MUFG if needed.
A prolonged hit to sentiment from the flood controls scandal would exacerbate the slowdown in GDP and credit growth, and pressure asset quality.
Key Metric
AS OF 18 Nov 2025| PHP mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 9M25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Margin | 4.43% | 4.23% | 4.49% | 4.73% | 4.70% |
| ROA | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| ROE | 5.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% |
| PPP ROA | 2.30% | 2.17% | 1.97% | 2.18% | 2.40% |
| CET1 Ratio | 19.1% | 16.1% | 15.3% | 12.9% | 12.7% |
| Total Equity/Total Assets | 17.88% | 14.94% | 15.62% | 12.50% | 13.41% |
| Gross NPL Ratio | 3.94% | 2.95% | 3.36% | 2.85% | 3.02% |
| Net LDR | 85.7% | 83.0% | 88.8% | 84.6% | 74.6% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 150% | 144% | 158% | 178% | 189% |
| Net Stable Funding Ratio | 138% | 122% | 131% | 130% | 143% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 19 Nov 2025Security Bank has historically been a wholesale focused bank. Rapid retail expansion leading up to the pandemic led to a large asset quality fallout. It has since resumed aggressive growth in higher yielding but riskier retail and MSME segments to counter NIM pressure. This along with improving funding costs from a declining rate environment has supported the NIM. Asset quality however is showing strains from the brisk growth in riskier segments as we had anticipated, leading it to start exercising some prudence in retail loan growth. We remain cautious about the asset quality implications given the relatively thin reserve cover and capital buffer (~12-13% CET1 ratio). We have an Underperform recommendation.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 19, 2025
Recommendation Changed: May 21, 2024
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