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Fundamental View
AS OF 24 Feb 2026Bank Mandiri (Mandiri) is the largest state-owned bank in Indonesia with 60% government ownership. We therefore expect a very high likelihood of government support in times of need.
Mandiri’s strength had been its large corporate loan portfolio, which has allowed the bank to book lower credit costs compared to its peers in recent years. Mandiri is well capitalised in line with the other Indonesian banks that have relatively high CET1 ratios in the region, though we expect this to be reduced by higher dividend payouts over time.
Business Description
AS OF 24 Feb 2026- Bank Mandiri was established as a result of the mergers of four state-owned banks, Bank Bumi Daya, Bank Dagang Negara, Bank Ekspor Impor Indonesia, and Bank Pembangunan Indonesia, in the late 1990s. The bank was first listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2003.
- The Indonesian government holds a 60% stake in the bank. Foreign investors have a 32% shareholding while domestic investors have another 8%.
- Corporates accounted for 40% of total loans, consumer for 7%, micro & payroll for 10%, SME for 5%, commercial for 17% and subsidiaries 21% at December 2025.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 24 Feb 2026Macro overhang continues as fiscal concerns over aggressive growth/social agendas and questions over central bank independence persist. Despite a stronger 4Q25/FY25 and a positive medium-term growth narrative under Prabowo’s term, skepticism remains amid soft ground-level activity and signs of a shrinking middle class. Moody’s has shifted the sovereign outlook to negative.
Margin pressure persists. IDR weakness due to macro concerns has constrained system liquidity; relief has been short-lived. Opportunistic BI cuts (when FX pressures ease) and subsidised government programs (e.g., village cooperative loans) to support growth will further compress NIMs.
Governance/transparency risks at Danantara remain, and the transfer of SOE banks (including Mandiri) increases the risk of higher dividend payouts to fund government priorities. However, we are comfortable with the CET1 ratio dropping to the 14-16% range of other APAC banks.
Retail is under strain, but asset quality has trended better than peers due to a large-corporate tilt. Increased state-directed lending to less commercially viable projects though could pressure credit metrics over time.
Key Metric
AS OF 24 Feb 2026| IDR bn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP ROA | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% |
| ROA | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% |
| ROE | 14.2% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 20.5% | 19.5% |
| Equity/Assets | 11.9% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 10.4% |
| CET1 Ratio | 18.4% | 18.6% | 20.8% | 19.6% | 19.3% |
| NPL Ratio | 2.72% | 1.92% | 1.19% | 1.12% | 1.13% |
| Provisions/Average Loans | 1.98% | 1.41% | 0.79% | 0.77% | 0.57% |
| LDR | 81% | 81% | 89% | 98% | 90% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 06 Feb 2026Mandiri is the biggest bank in Indonesia by assets and 60% government owned. It weathered the pandemic well given its focus on large corporates. Funding cost pressure from the tight liquidity environment has eased with recent government stimulus, and loan growth has picked up. Margins though are under pressure from state-subsidized lending programs and rate cuts impacting wholesale lending yields. Soft economic momentum, retail asset quality strains and higher governance risks are also headwinds. Fundamentals however remain sound with a corporates focused book, strong capital and healthy profitability. We expect higher dividend payouts to gradually reduce capital ratios but are comfortable with a 14-16% CET1 ratio. We have Mandiri on U/P due to Indonesia’s macro uncertainty overhang.
Recommendation Reviewed: February 06, 2026
Recommendation Changed: September 02, 2025
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Fundamental View
AS OF 24 Feb 2026Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) is the fourth largest commercial bank in Indonesia.
The bank is majority-owned by the Indonesian government (60%) and receives strong state support in the form of well-established relationships with SOEs, an area that the bank heavily loans to.
BNI’s asset quality has shown a steady improvement after COVID headwinds in Indonesia, through de-risking its loan portfolio by focusing growth on top tier private corporates. It is now going for balanced loan growth across segments.
Business Description
AS OF 24 Feb 2026- Bank Negara Indonesia was founded in 1946, initially as a central bank, before becoming a commercial bank in 1968. It is now the 4th largest commercial bank in Indonesia by assets.
- The bank is majority-owned by the state (60%) and focuses its lending toward SOEs and domestic corporates.
- BNI's loan book is split 58% corporates, 23% small and medium enterprises and 17% retail, with the remaining coming from its subsidiaries at December 2025.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 24 Feb 2026Macro overhang continues as fiscal concerns over aggressive growth/social agendas and questions over central bank independence persist. Despite a stronger 4Q25/FY25 and a positive medium-term growth narrative under Prabowo’s term, skepticism remains amid soft ground-level activity and signs of a shrinking middle class. Moody’s has shifted the sovereign outlook to negative.
Margin pressure persists. IDR weakness due to macro concerns has constrained system liquidity; relief has been short-lived. Opportunistic BI cuts (when FX pressures ease) and subsidised government programs (e.g., village cooperative loans) to support growth will further compress NIMs.
Governance/transparency risks at Danantara remain, and the transfer of SOE banks (including BNI) increases the risk of higher dividend payouts to fund government priorities. However, we are comfortable with the CET1 ratio dropping to the 14-16% range of other APAC banks.
Retail is under strain, but asset quality has trended better than peers due to a large-corporate tilt. Increased state-directed lending to less commercially viable projects though could pressure credit metrics over time.
Key Metric
AS OF 24 Feb 2026| IDR bn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP ROA | 3.35% | 3.42% | 3.32% | 3.10% | 2.75% |
| ROA | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% |
| ROE | 9.9% | 15.0% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 12.2% |
| Equity/Assets | 12.07% | 12.32% | 13.61% | 14.14% | 12.44% |
| CET1 Ratio | 17.4% | 17.5% | 20.2% | 18.9% | 18.4% |
| NPL Ratio | 3.70% | 2.81% | 2.14% | 1.97% | 1.94% |
| Provisions/Average Loans | 3.23% | 1.83% | 1.41% | 1.08% | 1.21% |
| LDR | 79.9% | 84.0% | 85.7% | 96.3% | 86.4% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 06 Feb 2026BNI is the 4th largest bank in Indonesia by assets and is 60% government owned. Asset quality was weaker than Mandiri, but has improved on its pivot to better quality segments since ’21. Funding cost pressure from the tight liquidity environment has eased with recent government stimulus, and loan growth has picked up. Margins though are under pressure from state-subsidized lending programs and rate cuts impacting wholesale lending yields. Soft economic momentum, retail asset quality strains and higher governance risks are also headwinds. Fundamentals however remain sound with a corporates focused book, strong capital and decent profitability. We expect capital ratios to decline, but would be fine with a 14-16% CET1 ratio. We have BNI on U/P due to Indonesia’s macro uncertainty overhang.
Recommendation Reviewed: February 06, 2026
Recommendation Changed: August 04, 2025
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Kasikornbank
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Region: Thailand
- Bond: KBANK 5.458 28
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.77%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 24 Feb 2026Kasikornbank (KBANK) is a historically sound and profitable bank.
Capitalisation is strong and the bank has among the highest CASA ratios in the banking sector. Asset quality took a surprise turn for the worse in 4Q22 due to its larger SME exposure and the bank has since focused on de-risking its portfolio. Credit costs are improving but remain elevated.
Margins are high compared to most other Thai banks we cover as a result of its strong SME franchise, but the shift in growth focus to the safer but lower yielding segments has diminished its margin lead.
Business Description
AS OF 24 Feb 2026- KBank is currently the second largest bank in Thailand. It briefly was the largest from 2018 until mid-2020, upon which Bangkok Bank completed its acquisition of Indonesia's Bank Permata and took its place.
- KBank's history can be traced back to 1945 when it was first established as Thai Farmers Bank. It was listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand in 1976 and changed its name to Kasikornbank in 2003.
- As of December 2025, the bank's loan mix by segment consists of 41% corporate, 24% SME, 31% retail and 4% others.
- KBank is known for its strong SME franchise. It also partially owns a life insurance company, Muang Thai Life.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 24 Feb 2026Thai economic growth is expected to slowdown this year from US tariffs. Ripple effects are in the form of lower bank NIMs as more BOT rate cuts come through to support growth, and credit costs remaining relatively elevated. Moody’s and Fitch have downgraded their rating outlook on the Thailand sovereign (and consequently the Thai banks including KBANK at Moody’s, which it currently rates in line with the sovereign) to negative in April and September 2025 respectively on increased risks to Thailand’s economic and fiscal strength.
We see still middling loan growth across the Thai banks due to a focus on quality amid the current backdrop. Trading/investment income is also set to moderate from a high base given a smaller rates tailwind this year, while KBANK’s switch to focus on safer segments will continue to weigh on the NIM.
KBANK has a higher retail/SME loan mix and sizable restructured loans portfolio (~8.8% of total loans). FY26 guidance for credit costs have as such remained in an elevated range of 140-160 bp as we had expected, but KBANK’s higher NIM and low-40%s cost-income ratio provide comfortable room for that to be absorbed.
Key Metric
AS OF 24 Feb 2026| THB mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP ROA | 2.38% | 2.36% | 2.52% | 2.64% | 2.47% |
| ROA | 0.98% | 0.86% | 0.99% | 1.15% | 1.11% |
| ROAE | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% |
| Equity / Assets | 13.1% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 14.9% | 14.8% |
| CET1 Ratio | 15.5% | 15.9% | 16.5% | 17.4% | 18.0% |
| Gross NPL ratio | 3.76% | 3.19% | 3.19% | 3.20% | 3.20% |
| Provisions / Loans | 1.73% | 2.11% | 2.08% | 1.90% | 1.63% |
| Gross LDR | 93% | 91% | 92% | 91% | 87% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 174% | 164% | 195% | 184% | n/m |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 22 Jan 2026Kasikornbank is the 2nd largest bank in Thailand. We are cautious about its one quarter loan book exposure to SMEs given the macro backdrop; credit costs spiked in 4Q22 mainly from the SME book and high yield small ticket lending, and the restructured loan book remains sizable. The bank however has switched to focus on safer segments, which is weighing on the historically high NIM but helped to stabilize credit costs. Credit costs remain fairly elevated but comfortably absorbed thus far. Capital is high with CET1 at ~18%. The NIM though is on a decline from lower rates, safer new loans, higher parking of funds in liquidity. We see a meaningful US tariff impact, with ripple effects in the form of lower bank NIMs and credit costs staying fairly elevated. We have an Underperform rec.
Recommendation Reviewed: January 22, 2026
Recommendation Changed: April 22, 2025
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Fundamental View
AS OF 24 Feb 2026Krung Thai Bank is the 3rd largest bank by assets in Thailand, with a 55.07% state ownership through the Financial Institutions Development Fund. We see strong government support underpinning KTB’s underlying credit profile.
The state influence opens the bank up to potentially government-directed lending; it has secured an increasingly meaningful portion of banking business from government agencies and State Owned Enterprises, which underscored its one-notch upgrade by Fitch in Dec-21.
KTB was faced with asset quality challenges in the past and had the highest NPL ratio and restructured loans among the major Thai banks. It has since de-risked its loan book, and asset quality has proven to be more resilient than its peers with lower COVID-19 restructured loans.
Business Description
AS OF 24 Feb 2026- KTB is the 3rd largest bank by assets in Thailand. The Thai Financial Institutions Development Fund owns 55.07% of the bank, and has a free float of 44.93%.
- Being the largest state-owned bank, it secures a meaningful portion of banking business from government agencies and State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) and per the bank, is the preferred bank for the government and SOE employees.
- Though state owned, the bank runs on a commercial basis and is not considered as a policy bank.
- KTB's loan profile comprised 46% retail, 23% private corporates, 10% SME, and 21% Government & SOEs at December 2025.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 24 Feb 2026Thai economic growth is expected to slowdown this year from US tariffs. Ripple effects are in the form of lower bank NIMs as more BOT rate cuts come through to support growth, and credit costs remaining relatively elevated. Moody’s and Fitch have downgraded their rating outlook on the Thailand sovereign (and consequently the Thai banks including KTB at Moody’s, which it currently rates in line with the sovereign) to negative in April and September 2025 respectively on increased risks to Thailand’s economic and fiscal strength.
We see still middling loan growth across the Thai banks due to a focus on quality amid the current backdrop. Trading/investment income is also set to moderate from a high base given a smaller rates tailwind this year. However, we take comfort in KTB’s conservative focus on the government agencies/SOEs segment.
Key Metric
AS OF 24 Feb 2026| THB mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP ROA | 1.83% | 1.98% | 2.40% | 2.50% | 2.50% |
| ROA | 0.63% | 0.94% | 1.01% | 1.24% | 1.26% |
| ROE | 6.1% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 10.7% |
| Equity/Assets | 10.5% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 12.4% |
| CET1 Ratio | 15.6% | 15.6% | 16.5% | 17.9% | 18.4% |
| Calculated NPL ratio | 3.50% | 3.26% | 3.08% | 2.99% | 2.90% |
| Provisions/Loans | 1.31% | 0.93% | 1.43% | 1.18% | 1.14% |
| Gross LDR | 99% | 98% | 104% | 100% | 97% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 196% | 201% | 202% | 207% | n/m |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 22 Jan 2026KTB is the 3rd largest bank in Thailand by assets and the largest state-owned bank. It is 55% indirectly owned by the Thai government and thus secures meaningful business from government agencies and SOEs (~20% of total loans), which has undergirded its stable asset quality during and post-COVID; it was faced with asset quality challenges in the past, but fundamentals have improved as it de-risked its loan book. We see greater NIM pressure on KTB than most peers from the turn in base rates. We also see a meaningful impact to the Thai economy from US tariffs, with ripple effects in the form of lower bank NIMs and continued high credit costs. The CET1 ratio though is solid at ~18% and the loan mix is safer than peers. We have it on M/P as the $ AT1 has <1 year to call date.
Recommendation Reviewed: January 22, 2026
Recommendation Changed: April 22, 2025
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Siam Commercial Bank
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Country: Thailand
- Region: Thailand
- Bond: SCBTB 3.9 24
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 5.573% (Indicative as of March 2)
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Fundamental View
AS OF 24 Feb 2026Siam Commercial Bank (SCBTB) has been a sound and profitable bank. It has a focus on the retail segment and targets to increase margins by growing its non-traditional banking businesses. It announced a major business overhaul in September 2021 to establish a new parent company called SCB X to segregate the group’s core banking services (Gen 1) from its new fintech and digital businesses and to enable greater flexibility and independence.
Recent credit costs have been elevated due to the riskier exposure that these entail. However, profitability remains healthy and the capital buffer is strong at both the Holdco (SCB X) and Bank (SCB) level.
Business Description
AS OF 24 Feb 2026- Siam Commercial Bank was founded as the "Book Club" in 1904. In 1907, it started operating as a commercial bank and was renamed as "The Siam Commercial Bank". It completed its IPO on the Stock Exchange of Thailand in 1976.
- The bank is 23.58% owned by the King of Thailand, and a further 23.32% is owned by the Vayupak Fund 1, which is controlled by the government.
- SCB is the fourth largest Thai bank by assets and is known for its robust retail franchise.
- Its loan profile was 36% corporate, 16% SME, and 48% retail as of December 2025.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 24 Feb 2026Thai economic growth is expected to slowdown this year from US tariffs. Ripple effects are in the form of lower bank NIMs as more BOT rate cuts come through to support growth, and credit costs remaining relatively elevated. Moody’s and Fitch have downgraded their rating outlook on the Thailand sovereign (and consequently the Thai banks including SCBX at Moody’s, which it currently rates in line with the sovereign) to negative in April and September 2025 respectively on increased risks to Thailand’s economic and fiscal strength.
We see still middling loan growth across the Thai banks due to a focus on quality amid the current backdrop. Trading/investment income is also set to moderate from a high base given a smaller rates tailwind this year.
The group’s business overhaul and strategic focus on retail comes with higher credit costs, particularly from the riskier target segments at the Gen 2/3 businesses. However, SCB X’s higher NIM and low-40%s cost-income ratio provide comfortable room for that to be absorbed. We also take comfort in the ringfencing of the bank unit (SCB) from the Group’s riskier business units, and management’s minimum CET1 ratio of 16% at SCB.
Key Metric
AS OF 24 Feb 2026| THB mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP ROA | 2.63% | 2.50% | 2.88% | 2.87% | 2.86% |
| ROA | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| ROE | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.7% |
| Equity/Assets | 13.4% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 13.7% |
| CET1 Ratio | 17.6% | 17.7% | 17.6% | 17.7% | 17.7% |
| Reported NPL ratio | 3.79% | 3.34% | 3.44% | 3.37% | 3.29% |
| Provisions/Loans | 1.84% | 1.45% | 1.82% | 1.76% | 1.74% |
| Gross LDR | 93% | 93% | 99% | 97% | 92% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 202% | 216% | 217% | 212% | n/m |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 22 Jan 2026SCB is the 4th largest bank in Thailand and has a leading retail franchise. Asset quality during COVID was poor. It created a new HoldCo structure (SCBX) in 2022 to shift digital units and unsecured retail loans outside the bank, and pledged a >16% CET1 ratio at SCB. The BOT has also ringfenced SCB which further reduces the risk for the SCBTB bonds. The NIM has been strong vs. peers as expected. We expect there to still be a sizable restructured book at SCB, and higher retail exposure amid elevated household debt has resulted in credit costs staying high, but these have been comfortably absorbed. We also see a meaningful impact to the Thai economy from US tariffs, with ripple effects in the form of lower bank NIMs and credit costs staying fairly elevated. We have an Underperform rec.
Recommendation Reviewed: January 22, 2026
Recommendation Changed: April 22, 2025
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.State Bank of India
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Banks
- Country: India
- Bond: SBIIN 5.125 29
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.22%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 24 Feb 2026State Bank of India (SBI) is the largest state-owned bank in India and is in some respects the country’s flagship bank. Given the bank’s ~55% government ownership and systemic importance, government support for SBI is very strong.
The bank’s capital buffers are relatively low, but we take comfort in the strong government support.
Business Description
AS OF 24 Feb 2026- State Bank of India is the largest commercial bank in India. Its predecessor banks date back to the 19th century. In the early 20th century, they merged to form the Imperial Bank of India, which became the State Bank of India after India gained independence in 1947.
- The Government of India remains the largest shareholder with a 55.03% stake. Per the SBI Act, the government's shareholding cannot fall below 55%.
- SBI's merged with its 5 associate banks and Bharatiya Mahila Bank in 2018. The merger catapulted SBI into one of the world's 50 largest banks.
- The bank has 85% of its loans in the domestic market, and has steadily increased its international business too over the past few years with offices across all international business centres. The domestic book is split 42% retail, 33% corporates, 15% SMEs and 10% to the agri segment as of December 2025.
- It has diversified its operations with well regarded subsidiaries in the areas of fund management, credit cards, insurance, and capital markets.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 24 Feb 2026SBI does not have a strong buffer vs. the regulatory minimum of 8%, but its size, systemic importance and majority government shareholding confer particularly strong government support. But consequentially, any deterioration in the sovereign ratings will also affect the bank’s credit.
RBI repo rate cuts will initially impact the NIM before the lagged effect of deposit repricing catches up over FY26-27, but management remained confident in a 3.0% through-the-cycle NIM. Loan growth has recently re-accelerated and should remain strong in coming quarters, supported by GST rate cuts lifting consumption, and improving corporate borrowing momentum amid India’s trade deals with the US and EU and robust public-sector infrastructure capex.
We are cautious about pockets of stress in Indian retail, particularly unsecured retail and microfinance. Asset quality however is trending well as SBI’s personal unsecured loans book is ~95% to salaried employees of top tier corporates and the government.
Key Metric
AS OF 24 Feb 2026| INR mn | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | 9M26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIM | 3.12% | 3.37% | 3.28% | 3.09% | 2.95% |
| ROAA | 0.67% | 0.96% | 1.04% | 1.10% | 1.16% |
| ROAE | 11.9% | 16.5% | 17.3% | 17.3% | 16.4% |
| Equity to Assets | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% |
| CET1 Ratio | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 11.2% |
| Gross NPA Ratio | 3.97% | 2.78% | 2.24% | 1.82% | 1.57% |
| Provisions/Loans | 0.91% | 0.54% | 0.14% | 0.38% | 0.44% |
| PPP ROA | 1.58% | 1.59% | 1.60% | 1.72% | 1.75% |
CreditSights View
AS OF 10 Feb 2026SBI is India’s largest bank and a well-run franchise. Government support (55% shareholding, can’t drop below 51%) underpins SBI’s relative positioning, while fundamentally, it has good operating metrics and business plans, a comfortable LDR, sufficient CET1 ratio (recently boosted by an equity raise in Jul-25), and the best management among the public sector banks. India’s macro backdrop remains relatively robust and SBI’s lower risk personal unsecured loans clientele is supporting asset quality well. Lower rates should keep asset quality well-supported. Rate cuts will feed through to the NIM in FY26, but treasury gains have provided some offset, and deposit repricing has started to catch up. Loan growth has picked up strongly. We like the name, but have it on M/P as it trades fair.
Recommendation Reviewed: February 10, 2026
Recommendation Changed: April 25, 2025
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Fundamental View
AS OF 24 Feb 2026In an industry beset by manufacturing issues and operational hiccups, HWM continues to perform admirably while also paying down debt.
Despite very low leverage, Howmet continues to pay down debt; the USD 2026 Term Loan was paid down during the quarter. Given the strong outlook, we continue to expect upgrades into the low ‘A’ category this year, as Fitch has already done post-earnings.
We retain an Outperform view on HWM credit, which we expect will continue to move higher in ratings. We expect the credit will Outperform in a widening market environment due to its relatively short duration, defensive nature and strong cash flows.
Business Description
AS OF 24 Feb 2026- Howmet Aerospace Inc. is the surviving entity of the legacy Alcoa Inc. following two major spin-off transactions in 2016 when Alcoa was spun off and in 2020 when Arconic was spun out. Howmet is now focused on high value add, high margin aluminum, titanium and nickel superalloy casting and forging.
- Products are sold into the Commercial Aerospace , Defense Aerospace, Commercial Transportation, and other end markets. Howmet also has four reportable segments: Engine Products Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels. The Engine Products segment produces investment casting – including airfoils and seamless rolled rings – as well as rotating and structural parts. The Fastening Products segment produces aerospace and industrial fasteners as well as those sold into the commercial transportation, automotive, renewables, construction, and industrial equipment. Engineered Structures produces titanium ingots and mill products for aerospace and defense applications as well as produces aluminum forgings, nickel forgings, and aluminum machined components. Forged Wheels provides forged aluminum wheels and related products for heavy-duty trucks and commercial transportation.
- Howmet operates 62 facilities in 11 different countries (primarily the US and the UK) and receives the majority of its revenue from the US and Europe.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 24 Feb 2026Aerospace industry is still going strong even as there are signs of a potential slowdown. Domestic travel boom significantly benefited narrowbody business while international travel supporting the next stage for widebody recovery.
However, there are signs that passenger demand may start to falter- at least domestically in the US- and we’ll be tracking how much of the booming OE demand will be realized over the next few years.
Increased energy demand driven by the AI boom will be driving higher volumes and demand for HWM’s portfolio of IGT products.
Forged wheels segment faces persistent headwinds from the still-weak trucking industry. However, HWM has an edge in the segment thanks to its lightweight products.
Tariffs impacts appear to be minimal thanks to the ability to pass the costs to customers.
Key Metric
AS OF 24 Feb 2026| $ mn | Y23 | Y24 | Y25 | LTM 4Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,640 | 7,430 | 8,252 | 8,252 |
| EBITDA | 1,508 | 1,925 | 2,413 | 2,413 |
| EBITDA Margin | 23.0% | 27.4% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| EBITDA-CAPEX-INT % of Revenues | 64.4% | 76.5% | 87.6% | 87.6% |
| Total Debt | 3,706 | 3,315 | 3,050 | 3,050 |
| Net Debt | 3,096 | 2,751 | 2,308 | 2,308 |
| Net Leverage | 2.1x | 1.4x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 17 Feb 2026We expect HWM’s (Baa1/BBB+/A-; S/S/S) February issuance will total $1.2bn across the three tenors. The deal comes on the heels of last week’s upgrade of the credit to A- at Fitch. Based on agency commentary today, an upgrade to A- appears to continue to be on track at S&P in 2026, while a Moody’s upgrade to A3 may come next year. Fitch’s ratings triggers leave the door open to a further upgrade to mid-A if HWM maintains leverage at the low end of its stated policy. Howmet’s credit re-rating continues due to the strong results and cash flow it has generated, robust aerospace & defense outlook and company positioning (now including a strong gas turbine market), and debt paydown with low leverage. We retain an Outperform view on the credit for these reasons.
Recommendation Reviewed: February 17, 2026
Recommendation Changed: March 02, 2022
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Fundamental View
AS OF 23 Feb 2026KORGAS is Korea’s sole integrated gas utility and a quasi‑sovereign credit, with an effective monopoly across natural gas E&P, procurement, storage, transmission, and wholesale distribution.
Its credit profile is underpinned by a dominant position in the gas and hydrogen value chain and strong government support, which partly mitigates the impact of delayed and incomplete cost pass‑through during periods of price volatility, such as in FY22.
We expect earnings to stabilize and modestly improve in FY26-FY27, driven mainly by margin normalization, lower financing costs from debt reduction and easing receivables, while volume growth remains constrained by structural competition from nuclear and renewables.
Business Description
AS OF 23 Feb 2026- KORGAS is 54.6% owned directly/indirectly by the Korean government (Central Government 26.2%, KEPCO 20.5%, Local Government 7.9%). It is Korea's only fully integrated gas utility, holding an effective monopoly over E&P, procurement, storage, transmission, and wholesale distribution of natural gas. KORGAS plays a key role in Korea’s energy transition, with plans to increase LNG generation capacity by 56% by 2036 from 2022. KORGAS was also designated as Korea’s sole hydrogen distribution agency in 2020.
- The Korean natural gas sector is split into wholesale and retail segments. KORGAS is the exclusive wholesaler, while city gas companies manage retail supply via regional networks. In 9M25, 46% of KORGAS's gas sales were to domestic LNG-fired power generation companies (gencos, including KEPCO subsidiaries and IPPs), with the remaining 54% sold to city gas and heating companies.
- KORGAS operates under a highly regulated framework, with government oversight of tariffs, investment plans, and capacity expansion. In addition to its domestic LNG infrastructure, the company owns overseas E&P assets to enhance supply security and earnings diversification. In line with government policy, KORGAS continues to invest selectively in hydrogen infrastructure and low‑carbon initiatives, leveraging its gas network and operational expertise to support Korea’s clean‑energy transition.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 23 Feb 2026Risks: (1) delayed or insufficient tariff adjustments; (2) higher-than-expected debt-funded capex; (3) regulatory and policy risks; (4) overseas E&P volatility; (5) foreign-exchange risk; (6) liquidity and refinancing risk; (7) asset impairment risks; (8) structural demand risk.
Catalysts: (1) stronger-than-expected government support; (2) more timely and adequate tariff adjustments; (3) stabilizing fuel prices; (4) sustained debt reduction and receivables recovery; (5) resilient regulated city-gas earnings; (6) selective growth in hydrogen and low-carbon energy initiatives.
Key Metric
AS OF 23 Feb 2026| KRW bn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | LTM 3Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 75.8% | 81.3% | 80.7% | 79.0% | 76.7% |
| Net Debt to Book Cap | 74.2% | 79.8% | 79.1% | 77.2% | 74.5% |
| Debt/Equity | 313.3% | 434.4% | 418.0% | 377.0% | 329.5% |
| FFO to Total Debt | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% |
| FFO to Net Debt | 8.1% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 8.5% | 9.1% |
| Interest Coverage | 4.8x | 5.1x | 2.2x | 3.4x | 2.1x |
| EBITDA Margin | 11.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 13.3% | 13.0% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 23 Feb 2026We maintain our O/P recommendation on KORGAS. Its credit profile is supported by its essential policy role as South Korea’s sole vertically integrated natural gas utility and a key energy supplier. We expect earnings to stabilize and modestly improve in FY26-FY27, driven mainly by margin normalization, lower financing costs from debt reduction and easing receivables, while volume growth remains constrained by structural competition from nuclear and renewables. We find KORGAS attractive relative to lower-rated Chinese SOEs, BBB-rated low beta Korean corporates, and other Korean quasi-sovereigns. We recommend KORGAS to investors seeking safe carry in the Asia credit space.
Recommendation Reviewed: February 23, 2026
Recommendation Changed: June 27, 2023
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Fundamental View
AS OF 19 Feb 2026UBS agreed to acquire Credit Suisse in March 2023 after the latter collapsed following a severe liquidity crisis.
CS was a large and complex organisation, so the integration, and the inevitable associated losses and costs, will dominate UBS’s strategic outlook and financial performance for several years.
However, UBS was able to negotiate substantial downside protection which should shield it from losses at CS.
Away from CS, UBS has reshaped its business model, with a greater emphasis on wealth management and less focus on investment banking, particularly fixed income.
Its earnings remain somewhat dependent on capital market conditions, but its capital, asset quality and profitability ratios have been among the strongest for European banks.
Business Description
AS OF 19 Feb 2026- Headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, UBS has private, corporate and institutional clients worldwide and retail clients in Switzerland. It is one of the world's largest wealth managers.
- It completed the acquisition of CS on 12 June 2023. It has merged CS’s domestic Swiss bank (Credit Suisse Schweiz AG) with its own domestic bank (UBS Switzerland AG) in 2024, keeping the CS brand “for the time being”.
- CS’s holding company (Credit Suisse Group AG) has been merged into UBS Group AG, so that the group has a single holding company, and the operating subsidiaries, including UBS AG and Credit Suisse AG, were merged on 31 May 2024.
- UBS operates through its Corporate Center and four business divisions: Global Wealth Management, Personal & Corporate Banking, Asset Management, and the Investment Bank, plus a new Non-core and Legacy division following the acquisition of CS.
- The Investment Bank has been restructured in recent years to scale back fixed income trading and focus on equities trading and origination & advisory business.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 19 Feb 2026The proposed amendments to the Swiss ‘Too Big To Fail’ capital and TLAC framework by the Swiss authorities could result in substantially higher capital requirements for UBS.
The decision of the Swiss Federal Administrative Court in October 2025 that the write-down of Credit Suisse AT1s by FINMA in March 2023 was unlawful creates uncertainty about any possible liability for UBS.
A French court imposed fines and civil damages of €4.5 bn ($5.1 bn) in February 2019, which UBS appealed. The French Supreme Court overturned the penalties and damages in November 2023, and the case has been remanded to the Court of Appeal for a retrial.
Key Metric
AS OF 09 Mar 2026| $ mn | 4Q25 | Y25 | Y24 | Y23 | Y22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return On Equity | 5.3% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 38.4% | 13.0% |
| Total Revenues Margin | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% |
| Cost/Income | 84.7% | 81.1% | 84.8% | 95.0% | 72.1% |
| CET1 Ratio (Transitional) | 14.4% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.2% |
| CET1 Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 14.4% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 14.4% | 14.2% |
| Leverage Ratio (Fully-Loaded) | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 183% | 183% | 188% | 216% | 164% |
| Impaired Loans (Gross)/Total Loans | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 18 Feb 2026We have Market perform recommendations on UBS AG (operating bank) and UBS Group (holding company) having revised the HoldCo recommendation from Underperform in August 2024. We revised our recommendation on its AT1s from Fair to Rich in January 2026. Its rescue and takeover of Credit Suisse in March 2023 was a seminal event that has had major consequences for UBS’s strategy and financial performance, as well as carrying substantial execution risk. However, the integration is on track, and UBS’s performance has been steadily improving. Capital, asset quality and liquidity all look strong, although Swiss regulatory capital requirements are set to increase significantly in coming years and have created uncertainty over UBS’s capital position..
Recommendation Reviewed: February 18, 2026
Recommendation Changed: August 14, 2024
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Sultanate of Oman
- Bond: OMAN 5.375 27; OMAN 6.75 27
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 3.98%; 4.15%
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Country Overview
AS OF 11 Feb 2026- Oil-dependent economy with diversification efforts: While oil and gas remain the primary drivers of Oman’s economy, contributing significantly to GDP and government revenue, the country is actively pursuing economic diversification through its “Vision 2040” plan. This aims to boost non-oil sectors like manufacturing, tourism, logistics, agriculture, and fisheries.
- Positive growth driven by non-oil sectors: Oman’s GDP has shown growth in recent periods, largely propelled by the expansion of non-oil activities, including manufacturing, services, and construction, even amidst OPEC+ oil production cuts. Natural gas production is also a growing contributor.
- Fiscal reforms and debt reduction: The Omani government has implemented significant fiscal reforms, including a VAT and subsidy reductions, which have helped shift fiscal and external balances into surpluses since 2022. This prudent management has substantially reduced public debt, improving the country’s financial stability and investor confidence.
Our View
AS OF 17 Mar 2026Oman possesses a developing, hydrocarbon-reliant economy, ranking as the 73rd largest globally by nominal GDP as of 2024, estimated at around USD 107 billion. Its economic foundation is primarily built upon its oil and gas reserves, which historically accounted for a significant portion of its GDP and export earnings, though diversification efforts are underway. While still dominant, the government has been actively promoting non-oil sectors like tourism, logistics, manufacturing, and mining through its Oman Vision 2040 initiative to reduce economic reliance on hydrocarbons. The country benefits from its strategic location at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, facilitating trade. It maintains strong economic ties with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states and Asian economies. Oman’s economic outlook for 2025 is shaped by global energy prices, the success of its diversification programs, and regional stability.
Recommendation Reviewed:
Recommendation Changed:
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