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Export-Import Bank of India
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Financial Services
- Region: India
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.92%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 05 Jan 2026The Export-Import Bank of India (EXIMBK) was founded in 1982. Its credit standing is built upon the key role it plays in the promotion of India’s cross border trade and investment development, as India’s official export credit agency.
EXIMBK is 100% owned by the Government of India. Given its crucial policy role, close governmental links and quasi-sovereign status, we view it as inconceivable that the Indian government would fail to provide EXIMBK with support in a timely manner, if needed.
Business Description
AS OF 05 Jan 2026- EXIMBK presently serves as a growth engine for the internationalization efforts of Indian businesses, facilitating the import of technology and export product development, export production, export marketing, pre- and post-shipment, as well as overseas investment.
- As at F1H26, EXIMBK's loan portfolio was principally made up of export finance (72%) and term loans to exporters (15%), with the remaining 14% split among the financing of overseas investment, import finance, and export facilitation. 44% come under the policy business/face GOI risk while the remaining 56% are to the commercial business.
- By geography, the bank has a primary exposure of 27% to Africa, 66% to Asia (mainly South Asia) and 6% to Europe and the Americas.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 05 Jan 2026As a quasi-sovereign issuer with backstops from the Government of India and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), it is viewed as a proxy to the sovereign. Any downgrade to India’s sovereign rating will flow through to EXIMBK as well.
EXIMBK’s policy role may require it to, at times, take on exposures that could lead to financial losses. This has led to poor asset quality and high impairment charges similar to the public sector commercial banks during the years leading up to the pandemic, but asset quality is now benign post a cleanup and de-risking of its books since FY18-19.
Capital standing is robust in part thanks to capital infusions from the Government of India – INR 50 bn was injected in FY19, followed by infusions of INR 15 bn and INR 13 bn in FY20 and FY21 respectively. The bank received INR 7.5 bn in FY22 despite capital levels remaining strong during the year. No infusions have been made since FY23 due to the comfortable capital position.
Key Metric
AS OF 05 Jan 2026| INR mn | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | 1H26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Margin (Annual) | 2.19% | 2.29% | 2.06% | 1.83% | 2.55% |
| ROAA | 0.54% | 1.04% | 1.43% | 1.58% | 2.21% |
| ROAE | 3.97% | 7.76% | 11.47% | 13.16% | 17.61% |
| Equity/Assets | 14.12% | 12.87% | 12.06% | 11.95% | 13.23% |
| Tier 1 Capital Ratio | 28.6% | 23.7% | 19.6% | 23.9% | 28.5% |
| Gross NPA Ratio | 3.56% | 4.09% | 1.94% | 1.71% | 1.43% |
| Provisions/Loans | 0.90% | 1.24% | 0.29% | (0.32%) | (0.51%) |
| Pre-Impairment Operating Profit / Average Assets | 2.31% | 2.41% | 2.12% | 1.83% | 2.56% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 05 Jan 2026Exim Bank of India is the country’s key policy bank with full government support. It provides financial assistance to exporters and importers with a view to promote trade in India. It is 100% owned by the Government of India (GoI) and is a proxy to the India sovereign in international debt markets (quasi-sovereign status). The bank cannot be liquidated without the government’s approval and has a track record of government capital infusions. The bank’s asset quality is back on track after some wobbles in previous years. Capital levels are strong. We maintain a Market perform recommendation on the bank.
Recommendation Reviewed: January 05, 2026
Recommendation Changed: January 04, 2021
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Fundamental View
AS OF 02 Jan 2026We shift SK Hynix back to Market perform from Outperform following its strong 3Q25 results; the company reported an acceleration in topline growth thanks to an improvement in DRAM and NAND pricing, as well as strong DRAM shipments, higher EBITDA margin on a better product mix, free operating cash flow expansion, and it turned net cash during the quarter. We remain constructive on SK Hynix credit outlook for the next 15 months, and expect the company to further expand its net cash position. That said, we think its current spreads have priced in its constructive credit outlook and positive rating agencies by all three rating agencies, as it now trades tighter than Asia BBB+ corporates and Micron.
Business Description
AS OF 02 Jan 2026- SK Hynix is one of the world’s largest memory semiconductor companies. As an Integrated Device Manufacturer (IDM), it engages in the design, manufacturing and sale of advanced memory semiconductors. It derives 78% of 3Q25 revenues from the sale of DRAM (dynamic random-access memory), 20% from NAND Flash, and the remaining 2% from CMOS Image Sensors and foundry services. The company's products are essential to a wide range of electronic devices, including PCs, servers, graphic cards, and mobile devices.
- SK Hynix holds the largest global market share (3Q25: 34%) in DRAM and second largest in NAND Flash (3Q25: 22%).
- SK Hynix is a member of SK Group, South Korea's second largest conglomerate by asset, and is 20.1%-owned by SK Square.
- The company has manufacturing facilities located in (1) South Korea — Icheon (DRAM, NAND), and Cheongju (NAND); and (2) China — Wuxi (DRAM), Dalian (NAND); and packaging & testing facilities in Chongqing, China.
- SK Hynix had a market capitalization of KRW 494.3 tn as of 2 Jan 2026.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 02 Jan 2026The memory sector is subjected to significant boom/bust cycles, leading to volatility in its revenue and EBITDA margin. During an upcycle, memory vendors typically expand capacity to meet strong end-demand from PC, smartphones, and servers; however, the long-lead time for new plants could result in an oversupply when end-demand is tapering off.
Capex intensity (as % of revenues) and R&D costs are elevated even in downcycles for SK Hynix, as it needs to maintain technological leadership and fast evolving product requirements from customers.
SK Hynix has large production and revenue exposure to China; rising US-China tension and restrictive US chip exports to China could destabilize the long-term prospect of its China production and weigh on its $ bonds. Though, in Oct-23 SK Hynix was designated as a “Validated End User” by the US government, which gave it an indefinite waiver for importing US chip gears to their Chinese plants.
SK Hynix may be vulnerable to US tariff risk; the company derived 71% of 3Q25 revenues from the US.
Key Metric
AS OF 02 Jan 2026| KRW bn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | LTM 3Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 23.5% | 28.1% | 37.8% | 25.6% | 21.0% |
| Net Debt to Book Cap | 13.3% | 21.2% | 27.7% | 11.6% | (0.8%) |
| Debt/Total Equity | 30.8% | 39.2% | 60.7% | 34.4% | 26.6% |
| Debt/Total Assets | 19.9% | 23.9% | 32.4% | 21.2% | 17.9% |
| Gross Leverage | 0.8x | 1.2x | 5.8x | 0.7x | 0.6x |
| Net Leverage | 0.5x | 0.9x | 4.3x | 0.3x | 0.0x |
| Interest Coverage | 87.3x | 38.7x | 3.8x | 26.5x | 48.4x |
| EBITDA Margin | 52.8% | 46.2% | 17.1% | 53.8% | 56.1% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 30 Jan 2026We maintain our M/P recc on HYUELE post its robust 4Q25 results; topline growth accelerated, EBITDA margin surged YoY thanks to higher ASP, which led to its higher FOCF; debt metrics improved and HYUELE deepened its net cash position. We expect HYUELE’s debt metrics to further improve in FY26 with a deeper net cash position; this is supported by an acceleration in topline growth on the back of higher ASP and robust demand for server-related products, which should also drive stronger EBITDA margin and FOCF. We maintain our expectations for S&P and Fitch to upgrade HYUELE over the next 12 months. We think its current spreads have priced in our constructive outlook on the company; it currently trades 5 bp tighter Asia BBB corp and only 5 bp wider than Asia A- corp; we prefer its 2033 bond.
Recommendation Reviewed: January 30, 2026
Recommendation Changed: October 29, 2025
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Fundamental View
AS OF 29 Dec 2025Goldman Sachs’ performance and market share in its core legacy businesses of investment banking and sales and trading have remained very solid, working through soft periods associated with rising rates; with market conditions improving into 2025 these businesses should continue to excel.
With costs related to the exit from consumer businesses in the rear-view, recent results have reflected Goldman’s positioning for re-heating capital markets. Wealth and Asset Management is another likely area of growth in the coming years, where Goldman can leverage its strengths in HNW and alternative asset management as well as growth initiatives.
Business Description
AS OF 29 Dec 2025- Goldman Sachs is now the fifth largest bank holding company in the U.S. with approximately $1.81 tn in assets as of 3Q25 and a market capitalization of $242.8 bn as of November 24th, 2025.
- Goldman Sachs presents its activities through three business segments: Global Banking & Markets, Asset & Wealth Management, and Platform Solutions.
- Goldman's core strengths include equity and FICC sales & trading, investment banking, institutional investment management including alternatives, and high net worth wealth management. It has been expanding its wealth management client base, and adding other stable fee income sources which help diversify its revenue streams.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 29 Dec 2025The early 2020’s were a mixed bag– the foray into consumer lending was costly and ultimately was reversed, diverting capital and management attention and providing a meaningful drag on profitability. Goldman has re-focused on its core businesses to much recent success, though its profile will remain less diversified than large GSIB peers.
Goldman could participate in further M&A to achieve its long-term strategic goals, and recent deals have been add-on deals related to asset/wealth management.
Goldman could be impacted by various risks during periods of market turmoil, but for the most part, has been positively impacted by bouts of volatility which tend to spur more client trading activity– 2025 tariff risks being a recent example. Goldman is subject to significant market and counterparty risks as reflected in the DFAST/SCB regime.
Key Metric
AS OF 29 Dec 2025| $ mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 3Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROAE (annual) | 21.3% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 12.0% | 13.6% |
| ROAA (annual) | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| PPNR / Avg. Assets | 1.86% | 1.08% | 3.29% | 3.92% | 1.25% |
| Efficiency Ratio | 54% | 65% | 282% | 266% | 61% |
| Net charge-offs (LTM) / Loans | 0.19% | 0.30% | 0.68% | 0.61% | 0.53% |
| Common Dividend Payout | 10.6% | 28.4% | 158.9% | 129.4% | 24.9% |
| CET1 Ratio | 13.6% | 15.0% | 14.4% | 15.0% | 14.3% |
| Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) | 122% | 129% | 128% | 126% | 128% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 26 Jan 2026We are moving Goldman Sachs to Underperform from Market perform on valuation, seeing Bank of America as a better option at recent spread levels. We also see Goldman Sachs as among the least likely to reduce debt supply in light of lower debt requirements– Goldman’s issuance needs are far more determined by wholesale funding needs for the trading business than managing to regulatory requirements, particularly in active capital markets conditions as we have been in recently. We have no particular fundamental concerns and in fact expect Goldman to continue to benefit from the momentum in the dealmaking environment and secular growth in trading.
Recommendation Reviewed: January 26, 2026
Recommendation Changed: January 13, 2026
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Fundamental View
AS OF 29 Dec 2025Citigroup is a solid global money center bank that has done a decent job cleaning up legacy issues and fortifying the risk profile in the wake of the GFC, though it still lags peers on several fronts including profitability.
Citi has more geographic diversification than peers owing to its international presences, though the retail side is shrinking considerably as Citi exits most of Asia and Mexico, refocusing around a global wealth management/private bank strategy.
Citi lags on the domestic deposit front, with less than half of the deposit base of money center peers and a much smaller physical footprint, though it has been focused on driving deposit flows the past couple of years.
Business Description
AS OF 29 Dec 2025- Citigroup ranks as the 3rd largest U.S. bank by total assets ($2.64 tn) at 3Q25 and 3rd largest by Total Equity ($214 bn).
- Citi currently is the 4th in terms of U.S. deposits with approximately $795.4 bn as of 3Q25 across 668 branches (S&P Capital IQ). Given the significantly smaller branch footprint, Citi does not generally possess leading market shares in most states besides South Dakota (#1).
- Citi's major business lines include U.S. consumer (mortgages and credit cards) and retail banking, global consumer, global corporate & investment banking, and global payments. The company has a plan to exit 13 international consumer markets, refocusing the non-US footprint around four regional hubs and combining wealth management and the private bank to drive synergies out of the hubs.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 29 Dec 2025Citi still lags peers on profitability (both ROA and ROTCE); CEO Fraser adopted the profitability gap as a key focus point as well, and we see Fraser’s strategic moves (e.g. int’l consumer exits, headcount reduction in management layers) as aimed at capital and expense optimization to improve ROE with some progress showing up recently.
Citi has had some regulatory mishaps in recent years but has made progress towards resolving issues.
Citi’s global footprint makes it more exposed to emerging markets and non-domestic economies; in the near-term, that could create earnings and capital volatility, though tariff-related disruptions did not ultimately negatively impact Citi in 2025.
Key Metric
AS OF 29 Dec 2025| $ mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | LTM 3Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROAE (annual) | 10.9% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% |
| ROAA (annual) | 0.92% | 0.61% | 0.38% | 0.51% | 0.55% |
| PPNR / Avg. Assets | 1.02% | 0.97% | 3.93% | 3.56% | 4.38% |
| Efficiency Ratio | 68% | 67% | 272% | 283% | 259% |
| Net Interest Margin (Annual) | 1.94% | 2.20% | 2.37% | 2.29% | 2.34% |
| Net charge-offs (LTM) / Loans | 0.70% | 0.55% | 0.95% | 1.29% | 1.27% |
| Common Dividend Payout | 19% | 27% | 130% | 187% | 125% |
| CET1 Ratio | 12.3% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 13.3% |
| Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) | 115% | 118% | 116% | 117% | 115% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 05 Feb 2026We are moving Citi to Market perform from Underperform, seeing decent spread value at the widest name among Big 6 GSIBs, particularly considering the context of improved profitability as well as progress on divesting itself of Banamex, the most significant step remaining in right-sizing its international exposure. We no longer see policy (i.e. tariffs) as a particular concern for Citi. Additionally we see possible technical tailwinds from lower supply as debt requirements notch downwards due to the eSLR changes that went through in late 2025.
Recommendation Reviewed: February 05, 2026
Recommendation Changed: January 13, 2026
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Fundamental View
AS OF 29 Dec 2025JPMorgan is one of the strongest and best positioned banks to navigate the current environment, with a well-diversified business model and good competitive positioning across a variety of lending and capital markets areas.
The company continues to deploy its considerable earnings power into reinvestment, specifically around technology where we are bullish on its ability to drive competitive advantages through strategic enhancements and efficiency gains.
Business Description
AS OF 29 Dec 2025- JPMorgan ranks as the largest U.S. bank by total assets ($4.56 tn at 3Q25) and deposits ($2.55 tn at 3Q25).
- JPMorgan ranks 1st in terms of U.S. deposits with approximately $2.08 tn in deposits at YE24 across 4,970 branches (S&P Capital IQ). JPMorgan's footprint includes New York (#1), Texas (#1), California (#2), Illinois (#1), Michigan (#1), Arizona (#1), Ohio (#5), and Florida (#4), among others.
- JPMorgan's major business lines include investment banking, retail banking, card services, treasury & securities services, commercial banking, and asset & wealth management.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 29 Dec 2025Succession planning at JPMorgan has a higher profile than many peers, with CEO Dimon (68 year-old) having held the top spot for over 15 years. Another recent round of shuffling top management yielded a little clarity.
The sector is always exposed to reputational, legislative, administration, and economic risk factors. That said, JPM’s strong capital position and scale leaves it well positioned to adapt to evolving landscapes and macro conditions.
Although not likely a credit risk, JPMorgan may continue to be acquisitive around non-bank financial and ancillary services; but we would expect any deal to be conservatively funded and looking to further technology and fee income strategies (e.g. payments or asset management).
Key Metric
AS OF 29 Dec 2025| $ mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 3Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROAE (annual) | 17.0% | 13.2% | 16.0% | 17.4% | 16.7% |
| ROAA (annual) | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| PPNR / Avg. Assets | 1.32% | 1.39% | 7.06% | 7.71% | 1.86% |
| Efficiency Ratio | 59% | 58% | 214% | 220% | 53% |
| Net Interest Margin (Annual) | 1.63% | 2.00% | 2.70% | 2.63% | 2.52% |
| Net charge-offs (LTM) / Loans | 0.26% | 0.25% | 0.48% | 0.63% | 0.68% |
| Common Dividend Payout | 24% | 32% | 101% | 97% | 27% |
| CET1 Ratio | 13.1% | 13.2% | 15.0% | 15.7% | 14.8% |
| Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% |
| Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) | 110% | 110% | 113% | 113% | 113% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 29 Jan 2026We continue to view JPMorgan as the strongest and most defensive name among the Big 6 issuers, but at recent tight spread levels and considering sound fundamentals across the space, we see relatively better value at Bank of America currently. JPMorgan’s 4Q25 results showed continued solid trends, and guidance looks positive for 2026– net interest income is expected to see moderate growth and investment banking pipelines remain healthy. Profitability remains quite strong with core ROTCE around 20%, and excess capital remains robust.
Recommendation Reviewed: January 29, 2026
Recommendation Changed: January 13, 2026
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.BMO Financial
- Sector: Financial Services
- Sub Sector: Consumer Finance and Banking
- Region: Canada
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Fundamental View
AS OF 22 Dec 2025BMO is geographically diversified within Canada & via its commercial banking business in the U.S. and is also well-diversified by revenue with contribution from fee income businesses.
Credit has performed worse than peers in 2024, but losses have stabilized in 2025, based on underwriting and risk management changes in recent years as well as seasoning effects.
Business Description
AS OF 22 Dec 2025- BMO Financial Group is the third largest depository institution in Canada with C$1.48 tn in assets as of F4Q25 and a market capitalization of C$88 bn as of December 22, 2025. Total deposits were C$948 bn at F4Q25.
- BMO operates 1,890 branches in Canada and the United States. In 2025, BMO had 1,007 branches within the United States, mostly in the Midwest. BMO ranked 11th in deposit market share in the U.S. (SNL), with a top-2 share in Illinois.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 22 Dec 2025BMO has a strong core deposit base in Canada and in the U.S., which mitigates the potential for a liquidity event. BMO remains well-capitalized relative to requirements with a target CET1 ratio of 12.5%.
Credit trends have largely stabilized in 2025 following a period of elevated provisions in 2024. BMO’s reserves and capital levels all point to BMO maintaining a conservative balance sheet stance and having flexibility to manage through a more extended period of macro weakness in Canada.
We view real estate-related risk in Canada as manageable for BMO given low LTV of exposures in vulnerable markets and conservative underwriting. Commercial real estate accounts for ~10% of total loans, and office is quite manageable at ~1% of total.
BMO closed the acquisition of Bank of the West from BNP Paribas in February 2023, significantly expanding its footprint in the U.S.
Key Metric
AS OF 22 Dec 2025| $ mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | LTM 4Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 25,788 | 34,394 | 29,260 | 32,796 | 36,277 |
| Net Income | 7,754 | 13,537 | 4,437 | 7,327 | 8,725 |
| ROAE | 1.01% | 1.01% | 1.01% | 1.01% | 1.01% |
| NIM | 1.59% | 1.59% | 1.59% | 1.59% | 1.59% |
| Net Charge-offs / Loans | 0.14% | 0.08% | 0.14% | 0.39% | 0.34% |
| Total Assets | 988,175 | 1,173,397 | 1,347,006 | 1,409,647 | 1,476,802 |
| Unsecured LT Funding | 51,915 | 64,886 | 63,418 | 115,839 | 76,889 |
| CET1 Ratio (Fully-Phased-In) | 13.7% | 16.7% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 13.3% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 07 Jan 2026We maintain our Market perform for BMO, with our preference within the group remaining to trade up in quality to RBC and TD. Surprising deterioration in asset quality metrics was the story throughout the latter part of F2024 and early F2025, with provisions well above historical average levels. Management has attributed the weakness largely to large wholesale loans to new borrowers originated in 2021, but credit trends have since stabilized throughout the year with further room to improve in FY2026. On the efficiency front, BMO has outlined several cost reduction initiatives, which are expected to support expense management and efficiency improvement going forward.
Recommendation Reviewed: January 07, 2026
Recommendation Changed: August 26, 2020
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Meta Platforms
- Sector: TechnologyTechnology Media and Telecommunications
- Sub Sector: Technology
- Country: US
- Bond: META 4.95 33
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.95%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 19 Dec 2025Meta delivered strong revenue growth in its 3Q25 results and 4Q25 guidance, which were both above consensus expectations. However, total expenses are now expected to grow “significantly” faster in 2026 relative to the 22-24% YoY implied growth in 2025. Also, capex will have “notably larger” dollar growth in 2026. We estimate this could imply $115-120 capex or ~50% of sales in 2026. As a result, we expect FCF to be pressured in 2026.
Meta just launched $30 bn IG bonds which is on the heels of the recent $27 bn off balance sheet Meta JV bond deal. Pro forma for $30 bn issuance, gross leverage is 0.5x (0.2x at 3Q25) and lease-adjusted leverage is 0.7x (0.4x at 3Q25). Net cash was $15.6 bn at 3Q25. Meta recently prevailed in the FTC’s monopoly litigation.
Business Description
AS OF 19 Dec 2025- Meta Platforms is the largest social networking company in the world. Meta's advertising revenue is primarily from Facebook and Instagram, although also on Messenger, Whatsapp, Threads, and third-party affiliated websites and apps.
- In 3Q25, Family of Apps was 99% of revenue (97.7% from advertising and 1.3% from other) and Reality Labs was 1% of revenue. Reality Labs generated $18.1 bn in operating losses during LTM 3Q25.
- There are 3.54 bn Family Daily Active People (DAP) as of 3Q25, and the Family Average Revenue per Person (ARPP) was $14.46 quarterly in 3Q25.
- Meta is headquartered in Menlo Park, California. Employee headcount was >78.4k at 3Q25.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 19 Dec 2025We continue to expect Meta to be a regular/annual issuer to fund its shareholder returns, operating losses in Reality Labs, and substantial investments in AI.
Meta recently prevailed in the FTC’s monopoly litigation. In December 2020, the FTC filed a lawsuit against Meta seeking to unwind prior acquisitions of Instagram and Whatsapp.
Meta’s business model relies almost entirely on user-generated content, exposing it to customer privacy concerns and regulatory scrutiny in the US and Europe.
Key Metric
AS OF 19 Dec 2025| $ mn | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | LTM 3Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY % | 37.2% | (1.1%) | 15.7% | 21.9% | 21.3% |
| EBITDA | 63,882 | 49,622 | 71,955 | 101,568 | 118,359 |
| EBITDA Margin | 54.2% | 42.6% | 53.3% | 61.7% | 62.5% |
| CapEx % of Sales | 16.3% | 27.5% | 20.8% | 23.8% | 34.3% |
| Sh. Ret. % of CFO-CapEx | 116% | 152% | 46% | 68% | 74% |
| Net Debt | (47,998) | (30,815) | (47,018) | (48,989) | (15,614) |
| Gross Leverage | 0.0x | 0.2x | 0.3x | 0.3x | 0.2x |
| EV / EBITDA | 14.0x | 5.8x | 12.3x | 14.5x | 15.8x |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 29 Jan 2026Meta’s advertising revenue growth has been impressive in recent years. However, the company is spending heavily on both capex for AI infrastructure and operating losses in Reality Labs. In addition, its AI models have lagged US peers. Capex is guided for $115-135 bn in 2026, which is up substantially from $72 bn in 2025. Gross lease-adjusted leverage increased to 0.7x at 4Q25 driven by its $30 bn bond deal. We are concerned that another jumbo bond deal will lead to technical pressure on its bonds and worsening credit metrics. Meta commented it might eventually move into a net debt position, which reflects a change in its financial policy. We recently highlighted this as a potential risk that could lead to ratings downgrades. Meta continues to face legal and regulatory headwinds.
Recommendation Reviewed: January 29, 2026
Recommendation Changed: July 31, 2025
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Amazon.com
- Sector: ConsumerTechnology Media and Telecommunications
- Sub Sector: Retail/GrocersTechnology
- Region: US
- Bond: AMZN 4.65 29
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 3.99%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 19 Dec 2025We continue to have confidence in CEO Andy Jassy and the company’s long-term business for both AWS and Stores. AWS is a $132 bn run-rate business growing at 20% with GAAP operating margins in the 30s%. The 3Q25 results and commentary supports our view that Amazon will be a winner in Generative AI given the breadth of its cloud business, custom silicon (Trainium), and Bedrock service.
While AMZN’s capex has been ramping, along with other hyperscalers, we are encouraged by its debt reduction over the past few years and zero shareholder returns. There are risks related to its ongoing FTC suit although we view a breakup as unlikely. Pro forma for $15 bn issuance and $1.25 bn upcoming maturity, gross lease-adjusted leverage will increase by one tick to 1.0x.
Business Description
AS OF 19 Dec 2025- Amazon is an e-commerce company which sells a wide range of its own products and those of 3rd party sellers. Amazon offers fulfillment services for 3rd party sellers (FBA) and sells cloud computing services (AWS). In 3Q25, 3rd party units were 62% of total paid units, and FBA units are a majority of 3rd party units.
- In LTM 3Q25, NA segment was 60% of sales, International was 22% of sales, and AWS was 18% of sales.
- Amazon disclosed it surpassed 200 mn Prime members in April 2021. The annual membership was increased in February 2022 from $119 to $139 in the US, although fees vary by country. In mid-2019, Amazon Prime began to transition from 2-day to 1-day shipping. Amazon Prime also offers Prime Video, streaming music, and other benefits.
- In 2006, Amazon launched AWS which remains the leader in cloud computing (IaaS/PaaS). Amazon sells its own devices (e-reader, smart speaker, streaming media player, etc.).
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 19 Dec 2025We think Amazon has moderate event risk given its large size (~$2.4 tn market cap).
Amazon’s capex has been ramping for AI cloud infrastructure, which could lead to more jumbo bond deals in 2026.
In September 2023, the FTC and a consortium of states filed a lawsuit against Amazon and accused the company of (1) punishing sellers for offering lower prices elsewhere and (2) making Prime eligibility conditional on usage of fulfillment services. Motions for summary judgment are not due until August 2026 with a trial scheduled for February 2027. The biggest risk would be a breakup, although we view that as unlikely.
Amazon’s $14 bn acquisition of Whole Foods has shown its proclivity for large M&A.
Key Metric
AS OF 19 Dec 2025| $ mn | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | LTM 3Q25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY % | 37.6% | 21.7% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 11.5% |
| EBITDA | 57,284 | 71,994 | 74,593 | 110,305 | 144,162 | 161,740 |
| EBITDA Margin | 14.8% | 15.3% | 14.5% | 19.2% | 22.6% | 23.4% |
| CapEx % of Sales | 12.1% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 17.1% |
| Sh. Ret. % of CFO-CapEx | 0% | 0% | n/m | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Net Debt | (50,497) | (44,453) | 8,516 | (19,451) | (43,051) | (38,880) |
| Gross Leverage | 0.6x | 0.7x | 1.1x | 0.6x | 0.4x | 0.3x |
| EV / EBITDA | 28.3x | 23.3x | 11.7x | 14.4x | 16.1x | 14.5x |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 06 Feb 2026Amazon unveiled guidance for $200 bn capex in 2026, which was substantially above our $155 bn estimate and consensus of $146 bn. While Amazon might have negative FCF in 2026 given the capex ramp, we take comfort in its $123 bn cash balance, zero shareholder returns, and >$2 tn equity cushion. Gross lease-adjusted leverage is reasonable at 0.9x. AWS revenue was up 24% YoY in constant currency in 4Q25 which was a ~4 pt acceleration, and its custom silicon business (Trainium, Graviton) has “well over” a $10 bn combined ARR that is growing triple digits YoY. We continue to have confidence in CEO Andy Jassy and the company’s long-term business for both AWS and Stores. We expect Amazon to be a winner in AI given the breadth of its cloud business, custom silicon, and Bedrock service.
Recommendation Reviewed: February 06, 2026
Recommendation Changed: May 01, 2024
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Fundamental View
AS OF 19 Dec 2025Macquarie was tested during the global financial crisis, but managed to steer through the crisis without reporting losses. A strong balance sheet mitigated liquidity problems, but its banking unit had to turn to Australia’s central bank at that time for support.
The group has an impressive track record of managing risks and achieving good returns, and has built capabilities in a number of areas. Divestments are controlled based on market conditions. It was a beneficiary of market volatility in the commodity space in FY23-24. Its Australian mortgage book has also shown strong but sensible growth.
Business Description
AS OF 19 Dec 2025- Macquarie grew out of the Australian business of Hill Samuel, which commenced operations in 1969. Macquarie Group Ltd (MGL) is the holding company and listed entity, under which there is the banking group Macquarie Bank Ltd (MBL) which consists of the Banking & Financial Services (BFS) and Commodities & Global Markets (CGM) businesses, and a non-banking group which consists of the Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) and Macquarie Capital (MC) businesses.
- From the 1990s, the group has been associated with the "Macquarie Model" which focused on identifying cash-generating infrastructure assets & packaging them into funds that could be sold, with Macquarie taking fees as banker, arranger and asset manager.
- It acquired asset managers including Delaware Investments in the US and Blackmont Capital in Canada, boutique investment bank Fox-Pitt Kelton and specialists such as Tristone Energy (Canada). It acquired US asset manager, Waddell & Reed in April 2021, which added around US$76 bn of assets under management. It has recently sold its public AM business in the US and Europe to Nomura. Adjusting for the Nomura transaction, MAM has AUM of A$720 bn.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 19 Dec 2025Macquarie Group has sizable exposure to credit and equity risk, and so could be adversely impacted by falls in asset prices. In addition, volatile/weak markets could and has impeded its ability to exit some of its investments.
Its earnings profile partially depends on exits and therefore is lumpy in nature. It has till recently managed this risk well, but we are now cautious about its declining group capital surplus (it does not commit to a minimum level).
It is a global leader in infra investments and is well positioned for the green transition (though recently selling down these assets has proved difficult). It has been a strong beneficiary of volatility in commodity markets, a testament to its risk management capabilities.
Its banking unit was subject to enforcement action in Apr-21 by APRA over the incorrect treatment of intra-group funding arrangements resulting in an A$500 mn operational risk overlay as well as LCR and NSFR add-ons. The CGM unit also saw higher regulatory remediation-related spend more recently.
Key Metric
AS OF 19 Dec 2025| AUD mn | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | 1H26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Income | 19,576 | 17,071 | 17,569 | 8,720 |
| Cost/Income | 62.0% | 71.4% | 70.5% | 71.8% |
| Net Profit | 5,182 | 3,522 | 3,715 | 1,655 |
| Return on Equity | 16.9% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 9.6% |
| Total Impairments/Op Profit | 6.1% | (7.4%) | 6.6% | 1.2% |
| Annuity Business Profit Contribution | 34.2% | 36.5% | 43.6% | 51.9% |
| MBL CET1 Ratio (APRA) | 13.7% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 12.4% |
| MBL Liquidity Coverage Ratio | 214% | 191% | 175% | 173% |
| MBL Net Stable Funding Ratio | 124% | 115% | 113% | 113% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 11 Feb 2026Macquarie has a strong record of profitability since its inception. Its AM business focused on infrastructure, including green assets, is a global leader. It manages risks and returns effectively, and in FY22+23 was a large beneficiary of O&G and power price volatility. The Aus banking business has steadily gained mortgage marketshare. Large investment disposals from AM and Macquarie Capital led to a record year in FY22; strong commodities outperformance led to another record in FY23. FY24 income was affected by asset realisations and gas & power income. FY25 was helped by asset sales, 1H26 was just 3% up YoY but 3Q was better. Group capital surplus is falling but is comfortable at the bank level. ALM is conservative. Senior spreads at both bank and group are tight.
Recommendation Reviewed: February 11, 2026
Recommendation Changed: February 11, 2026
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Perusahaan Listrik Negara
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Search topics about wealth insights and investments.Perusahaan Listrik Negara
- Sector: Energy
- Sub Sector: Independent Power Producers
- Region: Indonesia
- Bond: PLNIJ 4.125 27
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 4.29%
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Fundamental View
AS OF 17 Dec 2025- PLN enjoys extremely strong ties with the Government of Indonesia (GoI) given its critical policy role of electrifying the nation. Post the launch of Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund Danantara, PLN is now indirectly owned by the GoI through Danantara.
- PLN delivered a robust set of 1H25 results, with total revenue and EBITDA up 5% and 9% YoY respectively driven by resilient power demand across Indonesia
- Looking ahead, we expect PLN’s credit metrics to improve in FY25 supported by higher YoY EBITDA, though partially weighed upon by higher capex; we anticipate FY25 EBITDA growth to be in the mid to high single-digit % YoY, mainly attributable to Indonesia’s healthy economic growth, supporting power demand; we also expect power tariffs to remain flat.
Business Description
AS OF 17 Dec 2025- PLN is involved in the entire electricity value-chain, from power generation, to transmission, distribution and retail.
- It alone accounts for 76% (~47 GW) of Indonesia's generation capacity (of which 8 GW is renewable capacity), while IPPs provide the remainder.
- The company controls and operates the entire transmission and distribution network in the country. It is the sole buyer of electricity produced by IPPs, through power purchase agreements (PPAs).
- It sells electricity to well-diversified off-takers – 41% to households, 25% to industrial customers, 21% to businesses and 12% to others.
- Since 2015, the GoI has gradually implemented monthly tariff adjustments for 13 customer groups, so that rates charged to customers are better matched with production costs.
- However, under the Public Service Obligation (PSO), the company will continue to sell electricity at subsidized rates of 50% to 450-volt amperes (VA) power households and 25% to 900 VA power households. The GoI subsequently reimburses the company for the difference between the subsidized tariff rate and production cost, typically within 2-3 months.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 17 Dec 2025- The company provides subsidized electricity to certain households for which it subsequently receives reimbursements from the GoI; though these payments tend to get delayed during major events such as COVID-19 pandemic.
- In order to increase the country’s electrification ratio to 97%, the company had been mandated by the GoI to develop large electricity capacities through the Fast Track II and 35,000 MW Programs. Implementation of such complex programs has required significant capital expenditure, which has led PLN’s FCF to fall deep into the red in recent years and created a funding gap.
- The success of the above programs is also contingent on the company’s ability to source coal cheaply, select quality contractors, acquire land rights and receive adequate subsidy reimbursements from the GoI.
- Being primarily a thermal power producer, PLN may be viewed unfavourably from an ESG perspective.
Key Metric
AS OF 17 Dec 2025| IDR bn | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | 1H24 | 1H25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 28.9% | 27.8% | 27.3% | 27.5% | 27.2% |
| Net Debt to Book Cap | 25.2% | 23.7% | 23.0% | 25.4% | 23.9% |
| Debt/Total Equity | 40.7% | 38.5% | 37.5% | 38.0% | 37.3% |
| Debt/Total Assets | 24.6% | 23.4% | 22.5% | 22.9% | 22.1% |
| Gross Leverage | 4.1x | 4.1x | 3.6x | 4.1x | 3.4x |
| Net Leverage | 3.5x | 3.5x | 3.0x | 3.8x | 3.0x |
| Interest Coverage | 4.5x | 3.7x | 3.9x | 3.4x | 3.9x |
| EBITDA Margin | 31.2% | 27.6% | 30.4% | 29.8% | 30.9% |
CreditSights View
AS OF 27 Jan 2026PLN (Perusahaan Listrik Negara) is a resilient, quasi-sovereign utility, making it a core defensive recommendation primarily due to its monopolistic dominance and critical role in powering Indonesia’s economy. The company’s credit strength is built on foundational operations across the entire electricity value chain—generation, transmission, and distribution—providing predictable cash flows and protection through established government subsidy mechanisms. Complementing this stability is its strategic alignment with national development goals, now reinforced by its indirect ownership under the sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, which supports its capital-intensive transition toward renewable energy and the ambitious 2034 power supply plan. This deep integration with the state not only mitigates execution risks associated with its elevated capital expenditures but also ensures robust financial backing, allowing PLN to sustain healthy credit metrics—recently improving net leverage to 3.0x—positioning it to benefit substantially from Indonesia’s resilient power demand and long-term economic expansion.
Recommendation Reviewed: January 27, 2026
Recommendation Changed: December 06, 2024
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Perusahaan Listrik Negara
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