Investors eye year-end rally as stocks pass week’s first test with tame CPI

NEW YORK, Dec 13 (Reuters) – Investors grew more upbeat about a year-end US stock rally after a softer-than-expected inflation report on Tuesday lifted sentiment a day ahead of a Federal Reserve decision that looms as a second major test for markets this week.

December is traditionally a rosy time of the year for stocks, but the month had gotten off to a rocky start with the S&P 500 last week posting its biggest weekly drop since late September as investors pared risk from portfolios ahead of potentially market-moving events.

November’s consumer price index released on Tuesday showed a smaller-than-expected rise for a second straight month, fueling optimism that the Fed would scale back its interest rate hikes that have punished asset prices this year.

“This was a big week, and this is certainly passing the first test,” said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company.

“We will see what happens tomorrow, but I do think you will have a Federal Reserve that talks more balanced,” Schutte said. “It sets up for year end that has a positive tailwind towards it as we all … continue to see the writing on the wall for inflation in 2023.”

The CPI rose 0.1% last month, against a 0.3% rise expected by economists polled by Reuters. In the 12 months through November, the CPI climbed 7.1%, the smallest advance since December 2021.

Stocks jumped after the report with the S&P 500 last up 0.8% in afternoon trading. The benchmark index has rallied about 13% from its 2022 low reached in October, helped by back-to-back softer inflation reports, although it remains down 15% for the year.

The latest CPI report also prompted a further reversal of other market trends that prevailed for much of 2022, with US Treasury yields falling and the dollar weakening on Tuesday.

The S&P 500, last down about 1.5% so far this month, has risen an average of 1.5% in December since 1950, the third-best performance of any month, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

Investors that had cut down equity positions and beefed up cash reserves have shown a tendency to jump aboard stock rallies in recent months, helping amplify upside moves in equities.

A UBS proprietary measure published on Friday showed that equity positioning among active fund managers was substantially below average but above the historical lows reached a few weeks ago.

“Positioning is still pretty bearish and this was certainly not one to help the bear camp out, so the risk is we squeeze (higher) into the end of the year,” said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis.

Still, the outcome of the Fed’s two-day meeting starting Tuesday poses an obstacle for stocks, with investors bracing for more volatility. Options prices are projected to swing roughly 1.8% in either direction for the S&P 500 in the hour immediately following the Fed’s decision on Wednesday, according to data earlier this week from options market-making firm Optiver.

Investors are largely factoring in a half-percentage-point rate hike, a step down from the Fed’s recent series of three-quarter-point increases.

Wall Street instead will be focused on the central bank’s projections for how high rates will ultimately rise. On Tuesday, traders boosted bets that cooling inflation will allow the Fed to continue to taper its rate hikes into next year and likely end them in March.

While stocks could rise as the year ends, many investors are cautious and worry that the delayed effects of interest rate hikes will severely wound the economy. The S&P 500 is expected to end 2023 at 4,200, or about 5% above Monday’s closing level, according to a Reuters poll of strategists.

“The lagged effects of Fed tightening are still looming in 2023 and the economy appears to be slowing on its own, lending to elevated recession risks in our view in the coming year,” said Josh Jamner, investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments.

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; additional reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Alden Bentley and Richard Chang)

US recap: EUR/USD hits 6-month high as US CPI softens Fed outlook

Dec 13 (Reuters) – The dollar index fell 0.8% after another below-forecast US CPI report sent Treasury yields sharply lower and stocks higher initially, as the data affirm an expected slowing of Fed rate hikes beginning with a 50bp hike on Wednesday.

The index plunged below December’s base to a six-month low, as 2-year Treasury-bund yields spreads tumbled to their lowest since June, due to a 19bp dive in Treasury yields reflecting a lower fed funds terminal rate and 50bp of rates cuts in late 2023.

Dollar weakness was initially exacerbated by risk-on flows in response to tumbling Treasury yields, but the S&P 500 fell back after failing to clear December’s prior peak with Fed event risk Wednesday.

EUR/USD rose 0.7% after backing off Tuesday’s 1.0673 high on EBS. A close above the 38.2% Fibo of the 2021-22 slide at 1.0606 could see June’s 1.0774 high by the Fibo objective off 2022’s base reached, assuming Wednesday’s Fed statement, economic and fed funds predictions and press conference avoid hawkish surprises.

Gains should be backstopped by the ECB on Thursday hiking at least 50bp and with guidance that supports markets betting on more than 140bp of increases before a 2023 plateau.

USD/JPY tumbled 1.7%, bearing the full brunt of tumbling Treasury yields and flows out of the haven dollar. A break of December’s lows to deeper downside targets now awaits the Fed events and perhaps Thursday’s top-tier US data.

Sterling rose 0.77% after slipping from its earlier surge led by risk-on flows and a whopping 23bp rise in 2-year gilts-Treasury yield spreads.

The high at 1.2443 and an expected first close above 1.2300 since June suggest May’s highs will be in play if the BoE maintains its inflation fight on Thursday.

(Editing by Burton Frierson; Randolph Donney is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Gold climbs as US CPI data spurs Fed slowdown bets

Dec 13 (Reuters) – Gold rose over 1% on Tuesday to its highest in more than five months after a smaller-than-expected rise in US consumer prices buoyed bets for a slowdown in rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

Spot gold climbed 1.7% to USD 1,810.98 per ounce by 1:44 p.m. ET (1844 GMT), after hitting its highest since June 30 earlier in the session.

US gold futures settled 1.9% higher at USD 1,825.50.

Gold prices are up significantly on the outlook that rate hikes may be slowing, said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

The inflation print “signals to the market that the interest rate hikes that the Fed’s been doing are working and they might not need to be as aggressive this week or in the coming months,” Haberkorn added.

U.S consumer prices barely rose in November amid a drop in the cost of gasoline and used cars, leading to the smallest annual increase in inflation in nearly a year.

Following the data, the dollar dropped over 1% to a nearly six-month low, making gold less expensive for other currency holders. Benchmark US Treasury 10-year note yields US10YT=RR also slipped.

Fed funds futures prices now imply a better-than-ever chance that the Fed will follow its expected half-point interest rate hike this week with a smaller 25-basis-point rate hike in February.

“If the Fed abandons its hawkish tone completely, gold could have a path towards the USD 1,861 level,” Edward Moya, senior analyst with OANDA, said in a note.

The US central bank’s policy statement is due at 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT) on Wednesday.

Lower rates tend to be beneficial for bullion as they decrease the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.

Spot silver rose 1.9% to USD 23.76 per ounce, platinum jumped 3.4% to USD 1,035.63 and palladium gained 2.4% to USD 1,931.76.

(Reporting by Kavya Guduru and additional reporting by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Shinjini Ganguli)

Oil rises to over USD 80/bbl as dollar slumps on slowing inflation

NEW YORK, Dec 13 (Reuters) – Oil settled over USD 80 a barrel on Tuesday and recorded its biggest daily gains in over a month, as investors bought up risk assets after US data pointed to slowing inflation.

The market was also buoyed by concerns about supply disruptions, including the ongoing shutdown of the Canada-to-United States Keystone crude pipeline following a massive leak last week.

Brent crude futures settled at USD 80.68 per barrel, up USD 2.69, or 3.5%. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at USD 75.39 per barrel, up by USD 2.22, or 3%. Both contracts recorded their biggest daily gains since Nov. 4.

The dollar index plunged on Tuesday after data showed that underlying US consumer price inflation rose less than expected last month, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its interest rate increases on Wednesday.

A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies, which can boost demand.

“Nobody really saw that number coming in below expectations – a possible demand-positive event that put a bid in the market,” Mizuho analyst Robert Yawger said.

The focus will now shift to how the US Federal Reserve responds to the CPI report, Yawger added. A pause in interest rate hikes could push prices higher.

However, traders said oil supply concerns have been around for a few days now, suggesting Tuesday’s rally may be down to broader ‘risk-on’ sentiment after the inflation data.

“This is just a dollar-based broad rally,” said Eli Tesfaye, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. “Given the sustained drop in the market, any positive news will lift oil, but it remains to be seen if these rallies will hold.”

Tuesday’s rally could also be due to traders closing out short positions – speculative bets that the price of a commodity will decline – after both benchmarks fell more than 10% last week.

“After being on the receiving end of an absolute drubbing last week, some buying interest and bargain hunting is coming back into the crude complex,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler.

The market had been sinking of late on pessimistic outlooks for demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Tuesday trimmed its first-quarter absolute oil demand forecast and said the global economic slowdown is becoming evident.

Chinese leaders reportedly delayed a key economic policy meeting due to surging COVID-19 infections, adding to concerns about demand recovery in the world’s biggest crude importer.

TC Energy Corp’s (TRP) Keystone Pipeline, which ships 620,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Canadian crude to the US, remains shut after a spill last week, which could reduce overall US inventories, particularly at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub, the delivery point for US futures contracts.

US crude inventories were forecast to fall by 3.6 million barrels last week, according to a Reuters poll.

Industry data from the American Petroleum Institute is due at 4:30 p.m. ET (2130 GMT), followed by government data on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Shariq Khan; Additional reporting by Rowena Edwards and Muyu Xu; Editing by Marguerita Choy, David Goodman and Josie Kao)

Philippines Oct trade deficit at USD 3.3 billion, 17-month low

MANILA, Dec 13 (Reuters) – The Philippines posted a trade deficit of USD 3.3 billion for October, its narrowest gap in 17 months, as exports rose 20% from a year earlier, outpacing the 7.5% increase in imports, government data showed on Tuesday.

The value of imports reached USD 11 billion while exports totalled USD 7.7 billion, the Philippine Statistics Authority said.

(Reporting by Neil Jerome Morales and Enrico dela Cruz; Editing by Ed Davies)

China’s loan danger

Dec 13 (Reuters) – As investors enter something of a holding pattern ahead of key central bank policy decisions this week, China’s markets are on the defensive after yet another indication that the country’s economic growth engine is far from purring.

New bank lending may have doubled in November from a historically low level the month before, but still fell short of analysts’ expectations. This follows surprisingly weak trade and relatively soft inflation figures last week and was enough to help push stocks and the exchange rate lower.

It was a reminder to investors that recent optimism surrounding the easing of China’s zero-COVID curbs may be a little overdone, and that the path to recovery will be extremely challenging even if economic re-opening is accelerated.

China’s ambassador to the United States said on Monday that China’s COVID-19 policy has always been “dynamic, not rigid,” adding that measures will be further relaxed in the near future and international travel to the country will become easier.

The yuan fell for only the second time in two weeks, while Shanghai stocks posted their biggest decline in two weeks. Asian stocks retreated too, and have now fallen every day bar two since Nov. 24.

The caution in Asia contrasts with the bright start to the week on Wall Street, where investors are betting that a benign reading of US November inflation on Tuesday will ensure a ‘dovish’ 50 basis point rate hike from the Fed on Wednesday.

The three main US indexes rose more than 1% on Monday, which should give Asian markets a shot in the arm first thing on Tuesday.

In truth, however, there has been little substantive move in Fed expectations for a while – the implied US terminal rate has mostly hovered within a range of 10 basis points either side of the 5.00% mark for about a month.

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever in Orlando, Fla.; Editing by Josie Kao)

Wall Street rallies with inflation, US Fed on tap

NEW YORK, Dec 12 (Reuters) – US stock indexes rallied to kick off the trading week on Monday, lifted in part by gains in Microsoft and Pfizer, as investors girded for inflation data on Tuesday and a policy announcement from the Federal Reserve later in the week.

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) rose 2.89% following the tech giant’s deal to buy a 4% stake in the London Stock Exchange Group, helping to boost each of the three major indexes.

After strong gains in October and November, the benchmark S&P 500 stumbled out of the gate in December and suffered its biggest weekly percentage decline in nearly three months as mixed economic data helped fuel recession concerns.

Consumer inflation data will be closely monitored on Tuesday, and is expected to show prices increased by 7.3% in November on an annual basis, slowing from the 7.7% rise in the previous month, while the “core” reading which excludes food and energy is expected to show a 6.1% increase from the 6.3% in the prior month.

“The market is pricing in a 6-handle on the CPI tomorrow versus the 7.3% that is expected, and if it has a 6-handle on it, then that would be reason enough to get all excited, at least short-term,” said Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors in Boca Raton, Florida.

“The other thing is they are once again expecting Jay Powell to come out and have a dovish tone, which would be a huge mistake. Jay Powell needs to stop giving anyone the inclination they are softening up or they are being dovish.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 528.58 points, or 1.58%, to 34,005.04, the S&P 500 gained 56.18 points, or 1.43%, to 3,990.56 and the Nasdaq Composite added 139.12 points, or 1.26%, to 11,143.74.

The rally marked the biggest one-day percentage gain for each of the three major indexes since Nov. 30, and each of the 11 major S&P sectors ended the session in positive territory.

Pfizer (PFE) shares gained 0.85% after the drugmaker gave revenue forecasts from vaccines across its portfolio.

A cooler than expected inflation report would help support the belief the aggressive policy actions taken by the Fed this year to slow the economy are taking hold. The central bank is widely expected to hike by 50 basis points on Wednesday, which would mark a step down from the hikes of 75 basis points in the last four meetings.

Equities were weaker on Friday after a reading of producer prices for November was more than expected, even though it did show the trend was moderating.

Fears the Fed will make a policy mistake and tilt the economy into a recession have weighed heavily on Wall Street this year, with the S&P 500 down about 16% and on track for its first yearly drop since 2018 and largest percentage drop since 2008.

Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) slumped 6.16% after the company paused its partnership discussions with Mercedes-Benz Vans on electric van production in Europe.

Biotech firm Horizon Therapeutics Plc. (HZNP) surged 15.49% following a buyout offer from Amgen Inc. (AMGN), while Coupa Software Inc. (COUP) soared 26.67% after agreeing to sell itself to private equity firm Thoma Bravo LLC.

Weber Inc. (WEBR) climbed 23.23% after the outdoor cooking firm agreed to be taken private by controlling shareholder BDT Capital Partners LLC.

Volume on US exchanges was 10.35 billion shares, compared with the 10.49 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.67-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.43-to-1 ratio favored advancers.

The S&P 500 posted 2 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 73 new highs and 264 new lows.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; editing by Grant McCool)

Options traders brace for big swings as US CPI data, Fed meeting loom

NEW YORK, Dec 12 (Reuters) – Options traders are bracing for a week of swings in US stocks ahead of key inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting of 2022 and the final monthly options expiration of the year.

Inflation data and the Fed’s outlook on monetary policy could give traders more clarity on how much further the central bank may need to raise rates in its battle to cool consumer prices, potentially determining the trajectory of a late-year rally in stocks that has seen the S&P 500 bounce 14% off its October lows. The index remains down 17% for the year.

Pricing in the US options market on Monday implied investors were positioned for the S&P 500 to move 2.5% in either direction in the wake of Tuesday’s consumer price report, which covers November, data from options market-making firm Optiver showed.

A big move would be par for the course in a year during which CPI data has sparked explosive market gyrations, as surging inflation forced the Fed to embark on its most aggressive monetary policy tightening since the 1980s.

The S&P 500 has moved an average of around 3% in either direction over the past six CPI releases, including a 5.5% jump on Nov. 10, when inflation data came in weaker than expected. That compares with an average daily move of about 1.2% over the same period.

A second dose of softer-than-expected inflation data could bolster the case for those arguing that inflation may have peaked.

On the other hand, “with the October CPI reading having spurred such an outsized positive reaction, the market is implying what could be an even bigger move to the downside if inflation comes in meaningfully higher than expectations,” said Tom Borgen-Davis, head of equity research at Optiver.

Meanwhile, options prices are projecting a 1.8% swing in either direction for the S&P 500 in the hour immediately following Wednesday’s FOMC decision, Optiver data showed.

While investors broadly expect the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points, Wall St will be focused on the central bank’s projections for how high rates will ultimately rise and to what degree the US economy can withstand monetary tightening.

Friday also marks the last monthly options expiration for the year, an event where traders looking to replace a large number of expiring contracts can cause a surge in trading volumes.

Brent Kochuba, founder of options analytic service SpotGamma, said that for now, options positioning is “very balanced between calls and puts,” giving little indication of which way traders expect the markets to swing in the wake of Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s events.

That balance in positioning may help suppress volatility around the FOMC decision, Kochuba said. However, once this week’s options expiration is out of the way, the stock market may be more prone to swings in either direction, he said.

“The direction of that move is Fed dependent,” Kochuba said.

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Gold falls ahead of US inflation data, Fed outcome

Dec 12 (Reuters) – Gold prices slipped on Monday as investors stayed on the sidelines awaiting US inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike decision later this week.

Spot gold was down 0.9% at USD 1,780.19 per ounce by 15:29 p.m. ET (2029 GMT). US gold futures settled 1% lower at USD 1,792.30.

“The markets are pulling back ahead of the Fed and the next couple of days is going to be pretty volatile,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

The US central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its final meeting of 2022 scheduled on Dec. 13-14.

The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also set to announce interest rate decisions this week.

Lower rates tend to boost gold’s appeal as it decreases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Data on Friday showed US producer prices rose slightly more than expected in November, reinforcing the view that the Fed may have to keep interest rates higher for longer.

Focus now shifts to the US consumer price index (CPI) report for November that is due on Tuesday.

“Ahead of the key data print, the current strength of the market would be tested on a break below USD 1,765, a level where support was found on several occasions last week,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday forecast a substantial reduction in US inflation in 2023.

Meanwhile, spot silver dipped 0.7% to USD 23.30 per ounce.

“The overall scenario remains supportive (for silver), while investors are betting on solid demand in the next few years,” Carlo Alberto De Casa, external analyst at Kinesis Money, said.

Platinum dropped 2.2% to USD 999.73 per ounce, and palladium slid 3.5% to USD 1,881.47.

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel and Shounak Dasgupta)

China stocks retreat on concerns of surging COVID cases

SHANGHAI, Dec 12 (Reuters) – China stocks retreated on Monday as investors worried that rising COVID-19 cases might disrupt consumption and manufacturing, while uncertainty over overseas monetary policy also kept sentiment subdued.

China’s blue-chip CSI 300 Index closed down 1.1%, and the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.9%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 2.2% while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index declined 3%.

Other Asian shares also fell, as markets awaited a flurry of rate decisions this week from the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and others.

After China made a dramatic pivot toward economic reopening last week, there were rising concerns that infections could spike and cause further disruptions.

Meanwhile, Chinese people queued outside fever clinics at some cities’ hospitals for COVID-19 checks, a new sign of the rapid spread of symptoms.

“Short-term pain in China’s reopening process might be inevitable, especially on the consumer side, but the subsequent recovery will be earlier and stronger,” said Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley.

Property developers and internet companies led declines in China’s market, as investors booked profits from previous bets on China’s policies to support the real estate sector and relax COVID restrictions.

Real estate developers’ shares listed in mainland China and tech giants traded in Hong Kong plunged more than 4% each on Monday. Both sectors rose more than 30% in November.

Country Garden Services Holdings Company Limited tumbled 17% to lead a decline in Hong Kong-listed mainland property firms, after it said chairman Yang Huiyan had disposed shares.

However, investors snapped up shares of Chinese drugmakers, mask producers, antigen test companies and funeral service providers, amid fears of soaring mass infections.

Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co Ltd., seller of a wildly popular anti-cold medicine, rose 1.7% on the day, sending their quarterly gain to 138%.

Meanwhile, antigen testing firm Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine jumped 10% by the daily limit.

Investors are also eyeing the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference this month, which is expected to provide more clues on China’s economic policy next year.

(Reporting by Shanghai Newsroom; Editing by Crispian Balmer)

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