Debt ceiling deal may shift investor focus to further Fed action

NEW YORK, May 26 (Reuters) – A last-minute deal to raise the US USD 31.4 trillion debt ceiling will likely shift Wall Street’s attention to other emerging risks, including further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and an expected reduction in fiscal spending.

At its May 3 meeting, the Federal Reserve signaled it was open to pausing its most aggressive rate hiking cycle since the early 1980s at its meeting that ends June 13, leading investors to pile back into equities and other riskier assets.

The S&P 500 is up more than 9.4% for the year to date and now trades at nearly 19 times its forward earnings, at the high end of its historical range. Megacap technology and growth stocks, which benefit from lower interest rates, have led the market’s advance.

“There has been a pivot party in equities, which is this idea that Fed will pause and reverse course that has rewarded risk assets,” said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.

“We think that there’s limited upside from here.”

Since May 3, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard have said that inflation does not appear to be cooling fast enough.

Unexpectedly strong economic data on Friday appeared to bolster their case, with underlying core inflation at 4.7%, up from 4.6% in March and well above the Fed’s 2% inflation goal.

Markets are now pricing in a roughly 50-50 chance that the Fed raises rates by another 25 basis points at its June 14 meeting, up from an 8.3% chance seen of an expected rate hike one month ago, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

A Congressional package raising the debt ceiling, meanwhile, is expected to cap spending on government programs.

That, combined with the possibility of higher interest rates to cool inflation, could help push the US economy into a recession despite ongoing strength in the labor market, said Tony Rodriguez, head of fixed income strategy at asset manager Nuveen.

“We expect to see a slowing economy because a number of what had been tailwinds are becoming headwinds.”

The US economy has remained unexpectedly resilient, given widespread expectations at the end of 2022 that it would be in recession by mid-year. Investors will be closely watching next Friday’s jobs report to gauge the ongoing strength of the labor market and potential for consumer spending.

And overall, analysts are expecting the S&P 500 to reflect earnings growth of 1.2% in the third quarter and 9.2% in the fourth quarter, according to Refinitiv.

While those estimates may be boosting investor sentiment now, signs of economic strength may leave inflation higher than the Fed would like, prompting more rate hikes, said Josh Jamner, investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments.

“It’s a pick your poison moment,” he said. “If we get a soft landing that puts stock multiples at risk due to the Fed raising rates, and if we get rate cuts it means that the economy has fallen into recession.”

The debt ceiling impasse had weighed on stocks in recent days, but for the most part investors had been expecting Washington to reach a deal. That means a sustainable relief rally is unlikely in the equity market, said Roland.

At the same time, the equity market has only just begun to start pricing in more Fed hikes, she added.

Higher rates over the second half of 2023 will keep pressuring companies that issued debt during the pandemic era of ultra-low rates, and they will need to either pay it off or refinance it, said Bryant VanCronkhite, a senior portfolio manager at Allspring Investments.

Some USD 6.5 trillion issued in 2020 and 2021 will mature by 2025, according to S&P Global Ratings.

“The ongoing effects of monetary policy now are setting us up for this wall of debt that people aren’t talking about with enough vigor,” he said.

(Reporting by David Randall; editing by Michelle Price and Richard Chang)

Gold wobbles as sticky inflation drives up US rate hike bets

May 26 (Reuters) – Gold gave up some gains on Friday and was on course for a third straight weekly loss on the likelihood of a last-minute debt ceiling deal and as a hotter-than-expected US inflation gauge raised bets for rates to stay higher for longer.

Spot gold was up 0.1% at USD 1,943.12 per ounce by 1:40 p.m. EDT (1740 GMT), having risen as much as 0.9% in the session. US gold futures settled mostly flat at USD 1,944.30.

The White House and congressional Republicans aim to put the final touches on a deal to raise the debt ceiling for two years.

Gold hit a two-month low of USD 1,936.59 during Asian trading hours and is set to lose 1.7% for the week.

“Despite positive noises coming from D.C., a debt deal may still be difficult to get through before June 1,” said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader.

But short-term players expect a deal to be done and “have been selling behind inflation data that suggests a June hike is possible,” Wong added.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve tracks for its 2% inflation target, increased 4.4% in the 12 months through April after advancing 4.2% in March.

“The PCE number just kicked one of the legs out on the stool of the gold market … a softer number would have provided the tailwind behind gold,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago.

Traders are now betting the Fed will deliver an 11th straight rate hike in June, which would erode the attraction of zero-interest-bearing gold.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields and the dollar index hovered near their highest levels since mid-March, both on track for their third straight weekly gains.

Spot silver rose 1.9% to USD 23.23 per ounce but was also on track for a third consecutive weekly dip.

Platinum gained 0.2% to USD 1,022.43, while palladium was up 0.6% to USD 1,425.61.

(Reporting by Deep Vakil and Seher Dareen in Bengaluru; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Anil D’Silva and Mark Potter)

US money market funds see big inflows amid debt ceiling caution

May 26 (Reuters) – US money market funds saw big inflows in the week to May 24 as investors favored safer bets ahead of a deadline for politicians to agree on an increase in the country’s debt ceiling.

According to Refinitiv Lipper data, US money market funds received a net USD 39.9 billion of inflows, the biggest week of net buying in four weeks.

US President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy are closing in on a deal to raise the government’s USD 31.4 trillion debt ceiling for two years, a US official told Reuters, but time is running short.

The US Treasury estimates it will run out of funds within a week, and legislating any deal will take that down to the wire.

Meanwhile, riskier equity funds saw outflows for a ninth straight week, worth USD 1.79 billion.

Investors sold USD 1.06 billion from US equity value funds and USD 703 million from growth funds, respectively.

Meanwhile, sectoral equity funds remained in demand as they drew a net USD 335 million worth of inflows. Tech and consumer discretionary sectors received a net USD 420 million and USD 289 million, respectively.

On the other hand, US bond funds attracted a fourth week of inflows, worth about USD 4.22 billion.

Government bond funds received USD 2.43 billion in a fifth straight week of net buying.

US corporate and high-yield funds also drew USD 1.72 billion and USD 677 million of inflows, respectively, but inflation-protected funds suffered a sixth weekly outflow of USD 565 million.

(Reporting by Gaurav Dogra and Patturaja Murugaboopathy in Bengaluru; Editing by Mark Potter)

Wall Street prepares for Treasuries mess as default looms

NEW YORK, May 26 (Reuters) – Anxiety is increasing in parts of Wall Street that rely on Treasury securities to function, with some traders starting to avoid US government debt that comes due in June and others preparing to deal with securities at risk of default.

US President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy are closing in on a deal that would raise the government’s USD 31.4 trillion debt ceiling for two years while capping spending on most items, as a June 1 “X date” approaches for when the Treasury Department has said it could run out of money to pay its bills.

Treasury securities are used widely as collateral across markets. A key question for market participants is how would bonds that are maturing next month be treated if a deal is not reached in time and the Treasury is unable to pay principal and interest on debt.

One such area is the USD 4 trillion repurchase, or repo, market, for short-term funding used by banks, money market funds, and others to borrow and lend. Some counterparties, including banks, were shying away from Treasury bills maturing in June in bilateral repos, where the trade is between two parties, said an executive at a US fund manager who decline to be named. There are 14 T-bills maturing in June.

Scott Skyrm, executive vice president for fixed income and repo at broker-dealer Curvature Securities, said some repo buyers or cash lenders did not want to accept any bills maturing within a year. Skyrm said stress began to appear in the market at the start of May, with some lenders refusing to accept Treasury bills that they perceived as at risk of delayed payments in some types of trades. He declined to name buyers who were not accepting T-bills.

“I don’t think counterparties want to deal with collateral around the X-date,” said Jason England, global bonds portfolio manager at Janus Henderson.

An executive at an independent broker-dealer in the repo market who declined to be named said they were still financing Treasury securities for now. Their focus, instead, was on rewiring their systems in anticipation of steps that the Federal Reserve and Treasury might take to prevent a default. The executive said they expected to work through the weekend to get their systems in place.

At least three big banks that deal directly with the New York Fed in its implementation of monetary policy were also accepting all Treasury securities, three sources familiar with the situation said.

The dislocations in the repo market, a crucial source of funding for day-to-day operations of many financial institutions, come amid growing stress in financial markets as talks drag on in Washington. A default could have devastating consequences, as the USD 24.3 trillion treasuries market underpins not just the US but the global economic order.

To be sure, a default remains a distant possibility. Many market participants expect the Treasury will be able to continue to pay its bills after the June 1 date as it could conserve cash in other ways to prioritize debt payments.

In the case that it needs to delay payments on some securities that are maturing, expert groups have suggested in the past that Treasury could help markets to keep functioning by extending the so-called “operational maturity date.” The proposal, detailed in a December 2021 contingency planning document prepared by an expert group, calls for extending the maturities of securities at risk of default by one day at a time.

That could allow the security to be technically traded and available for settlement on the Fedwire Securities Service system used for government debt. However, the group warned that it would need many broker-dealers to adjust their trading systems to also be able to do so and the consequences of a delay in payments on securities would still be severe.

The broker-dealer executive said the process was cumbersome because maturity dates subsumed several other calculations about the value of the security. Extending the maturities required the firm to “basically break their own system,” the executive said.

Even so, allowing the security to default would be worse. “If you don’t extend the date, I really don’t know what happens,” the executive added.

(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss, Saeed Azhar, Davide Barbuscia, Paritosh Bansal, Nupur Anand, Lananh Nguyen; writing by Paritosh Bansal, editing by Megan Davies and Sam Holmes)

Data boosts dollar, euro dips as Germany enters recession

NEW YORK, May 25 (Reuters) – The dollar strengthened for a fourth straight session on Thursday against a basket of major peers to touch a two-month high, as US data pointed to a resilient economy even after an aggressive rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve.

Weekly initial jobless claims rose by 4,000 last week to 229,000, below the Reuters estimate of 225,000 while data from the prior week was revised sharply lower, an indication the labor shows little signs of cracking.

The second estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product growth confirmed the economy grew more slowly, but the increase was revised up to 1.3% from an initial 1.1%.

“We are definitely not seeing that recession that everybody was talking about coming in 2023, so with those kind of bets being pulled off, the rates are creeping higher at this point,” said Erik Bregar, director, FX & precious metals risk management at Silver Gold Bull in Toronto.

“It’s not permanently baked into the cake but if we can creep up towards 60% or 70% odds of a hike, we will probably go again in June.”

“The momentum is definitely on the dollar’s side,” he added. “I don’t want to jinx it, but it is not something I would want to step in front of right here. There is a lot of momentum behind it.”

In contrast the German economy, Europe’s largest, was in recession in the first quarter as GDP fell 0.3%, sending the euro lower. The dollar hit a two-month peak, getting additional support from safe-haven demand as worries mounted about a US default.

The dollar index rose 0.433% at 104.280 after hitting 104.31, its highest since March 17. The four-day streak of gains would mark the longest since late February.

The euro was down 0.31% to USD 1.0715.

The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike from the Fed at its June meeting is about 53%, according to CME’s Fedwatch Tool, up from about 36% on Wednesday.

Recent comments from Fed officials have indicated members are divided about whether to keep hiking rates or not. Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins said on Thursday it may be time for the US central bank to pause its rate hike cycle while Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin said the Fed is in a “test and learn” situation in slowing inflation.

Worries about a potential US default have supported the dollar recently as talks continue in Washington to raise the USD 31.4 trillion debt ceiling. The Treasury has warned it will be unable to pay all its bills on June 1 if the limit is not increased.

After days of negotiations, US President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy appeared to be nearing a deal to cut spending and raise the limit, with the two sides about USD 70 billion apart.

Fitch put the United States’ “AAA” debt ratings on negative watch, a precursor to a possible downgrade should lawmakers fail to reach an agreement. In addition, credit rating agency DBRS Morningstar put the US on review for a downgrade on Thursday.

The Japanese yen weakened 0.52% versus the greenback to 140.16 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at USD 1.2311, down 0.43% on the day.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Richard Chang)

Gold hits 2-month low on US debt talks progress, rate hike bets

May 25 (Reuters) – Gold slid to its lowest in two months on Thursday as optimism around the US debt ceiling talks lowered safe-haven demand for bullion and robust economic data fueled bets of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

Spot gold was down 0.8% at USD 1,941.85 per ounce by 2:47 p.m. EDT (1847 GMT), having hit its lowest since March 22. US gold futures settled down 1.1% at USD 1,943.70.

US President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy appeared to be nearing a deal to cut spending and raise the debt ceiling.

“It’s a one-two punch for gold … if a deal is done over the weekend, then that will remove the biggest risk off the table,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

Gold extended losses after official data showed new US jobless claims rose moderately last week, indicating persistent labor market strength, and revised up the estimated GDP growth last quarter.

“A rather impressive round of economic data suggests this economy is still showing so much resilience … the argument for possibly delivering another rate hike is gaining steam here,” Moya added.

Traders looked to the Fed-favored inflation gauge, core personal consumption expenditures index, due Friday.

Markets now priced in a 50-50 chance of a 25-basis-point hike in June, seeing cuts no sooner than September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to lose appeal in a high-interest rate environment.

The dollar climbed to its highest since mid-March, making gold less attractive for overseas buyers, while benchmark Treasury yields were near highs seen on March 13.

Gold was “really viewing things through the lens of the dollar,” said independent analyst Ross Norman.

Spot silver eased 1.4% to a two-month low of USD 22.75 per ounce. Platinum fell 0.2% to USD 1,021.68, while palladium rose 0.1% to USD 1,416.39.

(Reporting by Deep Vakil and Seher Dareen in Bengaluru; Editing by Varun H K, Kirsten Donovan, Shinjini Ganguli, Nick Macfie and Shilpi Majumdar)

Dollar gains after Fitch watch heightens debt ceiling jitters

TOKYO, May 25 (Reuters) – The dollar pushed to a two-month peak against a basket of its peers on Thursday as worries mounted about a disastrous US default after ratings company Fitch put the United States’ “AAA” debt ratings on negative watch.

The greenback has paradoxically benefited from demand for safe havens with only a week left for a resolution to slow-moving debt ceiling talks before the June 1 “X-date”, when the Treasury has warned it will be unable to pay all its bills.

The US currency has also benefited from a paring of bets for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, with the economy proving resilient to the effects of the central bank’s aggressive tightening campaign until now.

That contrasts with escalating signs of economic malaise in Europe and China, which have sent those currencies to multi-month lows.

“The dollar has seen a good, solid move higher, and there’s good reasons for it,” said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets, pointing particularly to haven demand amid the debt ceiling standoff, as well as the signs of slowdowns in China and Europe.

“I believe the dollar could be on the cusp of another 2% move higher, and Fitch could be the trigger for it.”

The US dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers and is heavily weighted towards the euro, rose about 0.2% to 104.05, the highest since March 17.

Sycamore said a sustained break above 104 could lead to a test of 106.

The latest sign of weakness out of Europe came from a worse-than-expected deterioration in German business confidence.

The euro slipped about 0.1%, enough to refresh a two-month low at USD 1.0733.

Sterling eased 0.2% to the weakest since April 3 at USD 1.2332.

Against the yen, the dollar edged to its strongest since Nov. 30 at 139.705.

The Chinese yuan renewed a six-month low, dropping to 7.0879 per dollar in the offshore market.

The Asian giant has produced a cascade of disappointing economic indicators, all pointing to dull consumer demand and suggesting a post-pandemic recovery has already run its course.

“The PBoC (People’s Bank of China) showed little intention to defend the (yuan),” Ken Cheung, chief Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank, wrote in a client note.

He expected the yuan to remain under pressure until the country’s economic data shows improvement or the PBoC takes policy action to stabilize the currency market.

Australia’s dollar has felt the impact of China’s economic weakness acutely due to its close trade ties, slipping to a 6 1/2-month low of USD 0.65235 on Thursday.

The New Zealand dollar was still reeling from the central bank’s shock dovish tilt on Wednesday, which triggered a 2.2% slide. It slid a further 0.4% to hit its lowest since mid-November at USD 0.6082.

Meanwhile, US money market traders have trimmed expectations for Fed rate cuts this year to just a quarter point in December, from as much as 75 basis points previously.

They have also ramped odds for another quarter-point hike in June back up to about 1-in-3, after several Fed officials struck hawkish postures recently with consumer inflation still running about twice the 2% target.

“Whether we should hike or skip at the June meeting will depend on how the data come in over the next three weeks,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Wednesday at an event in California.

“I do not support stopping rate hikes unless we get clear evidence that inflation is moving down towards our 2% objective.”

(Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Edmund Klamann)

Oil stable as investors weigh US debt uncertainty, potential OPEC+ cuts

SINGAPORE, May 25 (Reuters) – Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as uncertainty over whether the United States will avoid a debt default weighed against the prospect of further OPEC+ production cuts.

Brent crude futures dipped 14 cents, or 0.2%, to USD 78.22 a barrel by 0635 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) edged lower 25 cents, or 0.3%, to USD 74.09.

Some progress had been made but several issues remained unresolved in US debt ceiling negotiations, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Thursday, as the deadline ticked closer to raise the federal government’s USD 31.4 trillion borrowing limit or risk default.

Negotiators for Democratic President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy reconvened Wednesday at the White House to try to close a deal.

“A cautious lid on the risk environment brought by the US debt ceiling uncertainty has also put oil prices on some wait-and-see in the Asia session,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.

“Coupled with further strength in the US dollar, that has kept oil prices on hold for now, while awaiting a further catalyst to follow through with its recent recovery,” Yeap added.

In the previous session, oil prices were supported by a warning from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister that short-sellers betting oil prices will fall should “watch out” for pain.

Some investors took that as a signal that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together called OPEC+, could consider further output cuts at a meeting on June 4.

Meanwhile, price declines were capped by an unexpected, massive fall in US crude oil inventories in the week to May 19 reported by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

US crude inventories fell by 12.5 million barrels to 455.2 million barrels as imports declined. Analysts had expected an 800,000-barrel rise.

Gasoline inventories dropped by 2.1 million barrels in the week to 216.3 million barrels, the EIA said, while distillate stockpiles fell by 600,000 barrels to 105.7 million barrels.

(Reporting by Jeslyn Lerh; Additional reporting by Laura Sanicola; Editing by Sonali Paul and Christian Schmollinger)

Gold range-bound on firmer dollar, US debt limit uncertainty

May 25 (Reuters) – Gold prices were flat on Thursday as the dollar advanced to an over two-month high and sapped demand for the greenback-priced metal, while investors awaited further developments in the drawn-out debt ceiling negotiations in Washington.

Spot gold was flat at USD 1,957.09 per ounce by 0519 GMT. US gold futures fell 0.3% to USD 1,958.80.

Rival safe-haven dollar scaled to its highest since mid-March, making gold less attractive for overseas buyers.

Bullion has been attempting to recover from its previous sell-off, but a stronger dollar and higher US Treasury yields continue to keep the upside in check, which seems to override safe-haven flows around the US debt ceiling situation, said Yeap Jun Rong, a market analyst at IG.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday maintained early June as a debt ceiling default deadline and said she will update Congress shortly about government finances.

Negotiators for Democratic President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy held what both sides called productive talks on Wednesday to try to reach a deal to raise the United States’ USD 31.4 trillion debt ceiling and avoid a catastrophic default.

Investors also took stock of minutes of the May 2-3 Federal Reserve meeting that showed policymakers “generally agreed” last month that the need for further interest rate increases “had become less certain,” with several saying the quarter-percentage-point hike they approved might be the last.

Investors will also scan US GDP estimates and initial jobless claims due at 1230 GMT for guidance on the economy’s health.

Spot silver fell 0.2% to USD 23.03 per ounce, platinum eased 0.3% to USD 1,021.23, and palladium edged 0.1% lower to USD 1,413.96.

“Platinum is regaining investor attention as fundamentals improve. South African mining challenges weigh on supply recovery this year, while demand is getting support from gold as well as the ongoing substitution away from palladium,” ANZ said in a note.

(Reporting by Arundhati Sarkar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber, Sohini Goswami and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

Stocks set for range trading as central banks near end game

BENGALURU, May 25 (Reuters) – Global stock indices will end this year higher than where they started it but most are set to be confined to ranges in coming months even as central banks approach the endgame for interest rate rises, according to Reuters polls of market strategists.

Despite the drubbing in 2022 and starting the year on the back foot, global stocks have recovered from March lows based on expectations that most central banks were done or nearly done with in some cases more than a year of raising interest rates.

The MSCI global stock index, which fell more than 8.5% between Feb. 2 and March 15 following the failure of a few US regional banks, has since recouped nearly all of those losses and is up about 9% for the year.

Still, there is barely any improvement to the outlook for major indices at year-end compared to a survey taken three months ago before the turmoil. Year-end forecasts for 10 of the 17 indices polled May 10-24 have been downgraded.

This suggests stocks are no longer a one-way bet in the minds of investors like they were for swathes of the last decade, in large part because there is little scope for central banks swooping in to cut borrowing costs any time soon.

“Although monetary tightening has been a drag on equities over the past year or so, we don’t think the end of rate hikes means the stock market is set for big gains,” said Thomas Mathews, senior market economist at Capital Economics.

Mathews added that “any hopes of a boost to equities from an end to monetary tightening will probably be dashed.”

Among analysts with a view on what the dominant trend for stock indexes will be over the coming months, a two-thirds majority, 64 of 97, predict narrow-range trading. Nineteen said they would rally and the remaining 14 predicted a correction.

Manish Kabra, head of US equity strategy at Societe Generale, noted the “fear of missing out” factor that has driven stocks in the recent past was no longer convincing, as there were multiple reasons to not load up on stocks and “we should see credit risks and bond volatility pick up again.”

While there was no majority among 104 analysts who had a view on the primary drive for stock markets over the coming three months, two related responses, economic data (39) and monetary policy (27) were the top picks.

Those were followed by company earnings (19) and other reasons (19).

With central banks’ actions expected to have an outsized say over stock price movements, the European indices and the Nikkei which outperformed their developed and emerging peers were expected to shed the most by year-end.

The STOXX index of the euro zone’s top 50 blue chips was forecast to fall about 2% from Monday’s close to 4,300 points by the end of December. The index is up 15.6% year to date.

Britain’s FTSE 100 was predicted to end the year at 7,775 points, broadly in line with Monday’s close.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was predicted to drop 4% from 33-year highs, returning to the psychologically key 30,000 level by year-end.

The benchmark US S&P 500 index which lost over 19% last year, its worst annual performance since 2008, is up around 8% this year and was forecast to trade around current levels to close 2023 at 4,150.

Brazil’s Bovespa and Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC stock index were forecast to gain nearly 9.0% and 7.5% respectively by end-2023. Both countries’ central banks were widely expected to cut rates over the next 12 months.

(Reporting by Hari Kishan and Sarupya Ganguly; Additional reporting and polling by correspondents in Bengaluru, Buenos Aires, London, Mexico City, Milan, New York, San Francisco, Sao Paulo, Tokyo, and Toronto; Editing by Ross Finley, William Maclean)

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