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Archives: Business World Article

PSEi plunges to three-year low on growth woes

PSEi plunges to three-year low on growth woes

Philippine stocks retreated on Wednesday, with the benchmark index plunging to a three-year low, amid fears over slowing economic growth that were worsened by negative sentiment from Wall Street due to concerns over the valuation of the artificial intelligence (AI) sector.

The bellwether Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) fell by 0.83% or 48.98 points to close at 5,818.06, while the broader all shares index decreased by 0.68% or 24.50 points to end at 3,534.38.

This was the PSEi’s worst finish in over three years or since it closed at 5,783.15 on Oct. 3, 2022.

The main index opened Wednesday’s session at 5,891.23, higher than Tuesday’s close, but sank to an intraday low of 5,763.68. It managed to recoup some of its losses before the closing bell.

“The Philippine market closed lower amid heavy selling pressure despite inflation figures aligning with expectations. However, the upcoming release of GDP (gross domestic product) data and corporate earnings from major index constituents will likely influence market sentiment and determine the market’s next direction,” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message.

“The local market dropped as investors traded cautiously while looking forward to the third-quarter GDP data release, which is expected to be below target,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

The Philippine economy likely grew by 5.3% in the third quarter, according to the median forecast of 18 economists and analysts in a BusinessWorld poll. This would be slower than the 5.5% expansion in the second quarter and is below the government’s full-year GDP growth target of 5.5%-6.5%.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release third-quarter GDP data on Friday (Nov. 7).

“Negative spillovers from Wall Street amid overvaluation concerns with the US’ artificial intelligence sector also affected the local bourse today,” Mr. Tantiangco added.

All sectoral indices closed in the red. Mining and oil sank by 3.62% or 446.88 points to 11,891; holding firms dropped by 1.3% or 61.88 points to 4,689.75; property fell by 0.99% or 21.62 points to 2,142.74; industrials went down by 0.69% or 60.24 points to 8,588.41; services decreased by 0.57% or 12.99 points to 2,255.07; and financials retreated by 0.52% or 10.20 points to 1,925.98.

“Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. was the day’s index leader, climbing 2.26% to PHP 68. Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc. was the main index laggard, falling 4.78% to PHP 26.90,” Mr. Tantiangco said.

Decliners overwhelmed advancers, 137 to 53, while 61 names were unchanged.

Value turnover went down to PHP 4.72 billion on Wednesday with 406.27 million shares traded from the PHP 6.37 billion with 538.81 million issues exchanged on Tuesday.

Net foreign buying edged down to PHP 339.58 million from PHP 339.79 million. — A.G.C. Magno

Flexible rice tariff adjustments OKd

Flexible rice tariff adjustments OKd

The Economy and Development (ED) Council has approved the recommendation to allow a more flexible rice tariff scheme starting in 2026, the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) said.

“Starting Jan. 1, 2026, a more gradual and flexible tariff adjustment shall be adopted, with adjustments by 5 percentage points per 5% change in international prices, subject to a minimum rate of 15% and a maximum rate of 35%,” DEPDev said in a statement on Tuesday. 

This was the recommendation presented by the Tariff and Related Matters Committee (TRMC).

However, this fell short of farmer groups’ demand to restore the 35% rice tariff, slamming the lower rate for flooding the market with cheap imports and gutting farmgate prices.

The ED Council also approved the TRMC recommendation to maintain the current Most Favored Nation tariff rate on rice imports at 15% until Dec. 31, for both in-quota and out-quota imports. 

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. had issued Executive Order (EO) No. 102 extending the rice import freeze until Dec. 31, in line with the Department of Agriculture recommendation.

However, DEPDev Secretary and ED Council Vice Chairperson Arsenio M. Balisacan said Mr. Marcos’ order makes tariffs “redundant,” and will not affect local prices.

“The TRMC’s recommendation is part of a broader government strategy to ensure stable rice prices and protect both farmers and consumers, while safeguarding macroeconomic stability,” DEPDev said.

Meanwhile, the Council also tweaked scope and implementation arrangements of the Jalaur River Multipurpose Project-Stage II to facilitate the completion of the remaining project works and ensure delivery of irrigation water to farmer beneficiaries.

It also approved new rules for formulation, prioritization and monitoring of Infrastructure Flagship Projects (IFP) amid a corruption crackdown on flood control projects.

This seeks to streamline the IFP list, tighten agency accountability, and lock projects into the government’s planning and budgeting pipeline.

ODA loans

At the same meeting, the ED Council greenlit two official development assistance (ODA) loans from the World Bank amounting to PHP 53.25 billion.

This includes the Department of Education’s PHP 38.27-billion Program for Learning Upgrading and School Development (PLUS-D) that aims to bolster learning outcomes, education management and delivery systems in the country.

PLUS-D is set for implementation from 2026 to 2032 and will introduce system-level interventions, provide targeted support to schools, and establish monitoring and evaluation mechanisms, DEPDev said.

The program, with public schools as the primary beneficiaries, focuses on raising literacy and numeracy among Kindergarten to Grade 6 learners.

It also approved the P14.98-billion Accelerating Water Supply and Sanitation for the Poor and Lagging Areas project. This is targeted to improve access to safe water supply and sanitation services in underserved communities.

The project will be implemented in the Loboc Cluster (Bohol), Siargao Island (Surigao del Norte), and Jolo (Sulu).

The ED Council also endorsed an EO that facilitates voluntary Social Security System, Philippine Health Insurance Corp., Pag-IBIG Fund contributions for contract of service and job order personnel in National Government agencies. 

“The proposed EO seeks to close gaps in social protection coverage by making it easier for non-regular government workers to maintain contributions through a voluntary, payroll-based mechanism,” it said. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

Inflation to pick up until early 2026

Inflation to pick up until early 2026

Philippine inflation is projected to accelerate until the first semester of 2026 but will likely remain within the 2-4% target, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said.

“That increase in the fourth quarter of 2025 and also the first half of 2026 is driven or could be driven mainly by statistical effects, as well as some of the anticipated adjustments of some of the utilities that we have seen,” BSP Deputy Governor Zeno Ronald R. Abenoja said during the BSP-ADB (Asian Development Bank) ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Economic Outlook seminar on Tuesday.

However, he said inflation may moderate from the second half of 2026 as global oil prices are projected to stabilize.

“After that, we think that the relatively stable oil prices in the international markets would help contain inflation pressures moving forward,” he added.

The BSP forecasts inflation to average 1.7% this year, before picking up to 3.1% in 2026. It sees inflation easing to 2.8% in 2027.

The ADB projects Philippine inflation to settle at 1.8% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026.

“Overall, inflation continued to be relatively muted. And it’s not within the target; it’s below the target range so far for 2025,” Mr. Abenoja said.

For the first nine months, headline inflation averaged 1.7%. A BusinessWorld poll of 17 analysts yielded a median estimate of 1.8% for the consumer price index in October, within the central bank’s 1.4-2.2% forecast. The October inflation data will be released on Wednesday, Nov. 5.

Mr. Abenoja noted that the BSP’s inflation forecasts account for the monetary policy decisions aimed at managing inflation pressures.

Since August 2024, the central bank has lowered borrowing costs by a total of 175 basis points, bringing the policy rate to 4.75%.

“Although headline inflation could be up because of some supply-side shocks, the underlying pressures have started to come down, and that has been one of the factors that was considered in shifting to a more accommodative stance,” Mr. Abenoja said.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. has remained dovish, signaling at least two more rate cuts until next year as they now see the nominal rate closer to 4%.

The Monetary Board will hold its last policy-setting meeting this year on Dec. 11.

Economic growth

On the other hand, ADB Regional Lead Economist James P. Villafuerte said the National Government’s higher budget allocation for infrastructure could help drive economic growth.

“In the Philippines, our main instrument for stimulus is actually the increased national budget of around 5% allocated for infrastructure,” he said.

The 2026 Budget of Expenditures and Sources showed that the government’s infrastructure spending program for next year is set at P1.51 trillion or 5.3% of the gross domestic product (GDP).

“Social services in the Philippines have also received substantial support, such as funding for education, healthcare, and social programs like the 4Ps (Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program) and also the new Walang Gutom food voucher initiative by President Marcos,” Mr. Villafuerte added.

The ADB projects Philippine GDP growth at 5.6% this year, within the government’s 5.5-6.5% goal. This also positions the Philippines to be the second-fastest economy in the region, after Vietnam which is projected to grow by 6.7% this year.

Mr. Villafuerte said Vietnam and the Philippines are the “industrial and trade powerhouses” in ASEAN.

For 2026, the ABD expects the Philippine economy to grow by 5.7%, lower than the government’s 6-7% target. Still, the Philippines is likely to be the second-fastest in the region behind Vietnam’s 6%.

Meanwhile, the BSP said the Philippine banking system’s solid performance remains one of the economy’s buffers against global trade woes and financial market volatility. 

“The banking system, if you look at the balance sheet, [banks] continue to be solid, they continue to expand… Overall, the Philippine banking system continues to be effective and they’re supportive of domestic economic activity,” Mr. Abenoja said.

However, he noted that the government still has to employ the proper policy mix to manage emerging domestic and global headwinds. 

“The environment continues to be challenging. The sand dunes continued to shift if you look around in our policy environment,” Mr. Abenoja said. “And at this time, we have to rely on robust policy frameworks to make sure that we remain vigilant and agile (and that) we are well informed.” — Katherine K. Chan

Philippines jumps to 56th in digital competitiveness index

Philippines jumps to 56th in digital competitiveness index

The Philippines improved five spots in the World Digital Competitiveness Ranking by the International Institute for Management Development (IMD), but remained a laggard in the Asia-Pacific region.

The country ranked 56th out of 69 economies, with an overall score of 50.87 (out of 100), in the 2025 World Digital Competitiveness Ranking of the IMD World Competitiveness Center.

This was an improvement from last year when the Philippines ranked 61st, its worst ranking since the report was launched in 2017.

Philippines rises five spots in IMD’s digital competitiveness ranking

Among 14 Asia-Pacific economies, the country ranked 13th, ahead only of Mongolia (67th).

Switzerland ranked first in the global digital competitiveness index with a score of 100, followed by the United States (99.29), Singapore, (99.18), Hong Kong (97.79), and Denmark (97.23).

The ranking measures a country’s readiness to adopt and explore digital technologies to transform government practices, business models, and society overall.

The index measures a country’s capacity based on three key factors: knowledge or the quality of human capital, excellence of technological infrastructure, and future readiness.

The Philippines ranked 65th in the knowledge factor, 52nd in future readiness and 54th in technology.

According to IMD, the country showed weakness in the ease of starting a business (66th), enforcing contracts (66th), communications technology (66th), and secure internet servers (63rd).

However, the Philippines ranked high in investments in high-tech exports (3rd) and telecommunications (9th).

The country also slipped one spot in the knowledge factor, amid low rankings in talent (56th), training & education (62nd) and scientific concentration (63rd).

According to IMD, the Philippines inched up by two spots in the technology factor, ranking 46th in capital and 47th in technological framework. However, it ranked 67th for regulatory framework.

For future readiness, IMD said the country improved by six spots due to its performance in adaptive attitudes (40th), business agility (50th), and IT integration (57th).

IMD noted that the Philippines’ business process outsourcing (BPO) sector, which serves foreign clients across North America, Europe and Asia, is vulnerable to trade barriers.

“Trade-related barriers (e.g., remote work taxes, licensing hurdles, and data flow restrictions) make it harder or firms to maintain contracts and retain talent, especially in smaller BPO centers with limited shock absorption capacity,” according to the report.

Globally, countries’ digital competitiveness is challenged by increased volatility in trade relations, IMD said.

It also cited the growing difference among countries and regions on how they regulate, develop, and adopt technologies.

“Trade conflicts were once thought to be confined to disputes over tariffs or quotas, but are now clearly extending deep into the intangible roots of the digital economy: intellectual property, data flows, technical standards, and strategic technologies,” José Caballero, a senior economist at the IMD World Competitiveness Center, said.

John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said the Philippines’ low ranking in the digital competitiveness index highlights the need to address structural bottlenecks like digital infrastructure quality, broadband affordability, and skill readiness.

“While connectivity has improved, it remains uneven and costly outside major cities. Moreover, the shortage of highly skilled digital talent and slow technology adoption among micro, small, and medium enterprises limit how fast digital transformation spreads across the economy,” he said in a Viber message.

Higher production costs and slow trade activity could delay technology upgrading and job creation among high-value sectors, Mr. Rivera added.

“To stay competitive, the Philippines must double down on digital infrastructure investment, talent development, and innovation incentives, while pursuing trade diversification and stronger regional digital partnerships to cushion external shocks,” he added.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the growth in online transactions and digital payment systems provide an opportunity to boost the country’s digital competitiveness.

The IMD report was published in partnership with IMD’s local partner institute, Asian Institute of Management’s Rizalino S. Navarro Policy Center for Competitiveness. — Beatriz Marie D. Cruz, Reporter

Philippine external debt service bill dips to USD 7.5 billion at end-July

Philippine external debt service bill dips to USD 7.5 billion at end-July

The Philippines external debt service burden declined by 5% at end-July as less foreign loans matured, preliminary data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.

Debt servicing on external borrowings slipped to USD 7.53 billion in the first seven months from USD 7.935 billion in the same period last year.

Broken down, principal payments dropped by 12.2% to USD 2.894 billion from USD 3.296 billion a year earlier.

Interest payments inched down by 0.1% to USD 4.636 billion from USD 4.639 billion the previous year.

“The slight year-on-year decline in the external debt servicing bill could largely be attributed to lower share of foreign borrowings in the (National Government’s) total borrowing mix in recent years to better manage or minimize risk of forex (foreign exchange) losses entailed in foreign borrowings,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

Based on its fiscal program, the National Government (NG) plans to source 81% or PHP 2.11 trillion of its PHP 2.6-trillion financing from local lenders this year, while the rest will be from foreign lenders. Domestic borrowings were slightly higher in this year’s borrowing mix versus the 75:25 borrowing mix in 2024.

“Furthermore, lower foreign debt maturities in recent months also reduced external debt servicing,” Mr. Ricafort added.

The debt service burden represents principal and interest payments after rescheduling, according to the BSP.

This includes principal and interest payments on fixed medium- and long-term credits, including International Monetary Fund credits, loans covered by the Paris Club and commercial bank rescheduling, and new money facilities. It also covers interest payments on fixed and revolving short-term liabilities of banks and nonbanks.

However, the debt service data exclude prepayments on future years’ maturities of foreign loans and principal payments on fixed and revolving short-term liabilities of banks and nonbanks.

In the seven months to July, the debt service burden as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) stood at 2.9%, slightly lower than  3.2% a year ago.

Based on the latest BSP data, the country’s outstanding external debt stood at a record USD 148.87 billion in the April-June period.

This brought the external debt-to-GDP ratio to 31.2% at end-June, higher than 28.9% seen a year ago.

Mr. Ricafort said less foreign debt and lower borrowing costs of other central banks such as the US Federal Reserve could partly reduce the foreign debt service bill for the rest of the year.

“For the coming months, lower share of foreign borrowings in the NG total borrowing mix and any further reduction in Fed rates and other global interest rates could somewhat help reduce or at least temper future external debt servicing bills,” he said.

For the next three years, the NG’s programmed financing mix consists of 77% domestic borrowings and 23% foreign.

“However, this would also be a function of future NG budget deficit that would lead to additional NG borrowings, including external debt,” Mr. Ricafort added.

The latest government data showed that the country’s budget deficit widened by 15.15% year on year to PHP 1.117 trillion as of September. This was 71.6% of the government’s PHP 1.56-trillion ceiling for 2025.

The BSP’s external debt data cover borrowings of Philippine residents from nonresident creditors, regardless of sector, maturity, creditor type, debt instruments or currency denomination.

The central bank gathers data on external debt through reports submitted by borrowers, banks, and major foreign creditors. — Katherine K. Chan 

Peso rises to two-week high on divided Fed, inflation bets

Peso rises to two-week high on divided Fed, inflation bets

The peso continued to strengthen against the dollar on Tuesday, posting a two-week high, as several US Federal Reserve officials signaled that they are open to another rate cut next month despite the cautious tone adopted by its chief.

Bets of within-target Philippine headline inflation in October also supported the currency against the greenback.

The local unit closed at PHP 58.515 per dollar, rising by 27.5 centavos from its finish of PHP 58.79 on Monday, Bankers Association of the Philippines data showed.

This was its best finish in nearly two weeks or since it ended at PHP 58.41 a dollar on Oct. 22.

The peso opened Tuesday’s session stronger at PHP 58.70 against the greenback. Its intraday best was at PHP 58.51, while its weakest showing was at PHP 58.75 versus the dollar.

Dollars exchanged inched up to USD 1.327 billion on Tuesday from USD 1.326 billion on Monday.

“The peso continued to appreciate after several Federal Reserve officials expressed openness towards delivering a rate cut in the December Fed meeting,” a trader said in an e-mail on Tuesday.

Fed officials continued offering competing views of where the economy stands and the risks facing it in the absence of economic data suspended due to the shutdown, Reuters reported.

The Fed cut rates last week, but Chair Jerome H. Powell suggested that might be the last cut of the year. Traders are now pricing in a 65% chance of a rate cut in December, compared with 94% a week earlier, CME FedWatch showed.

On Monday, Fed Governor Lisa Cook portrayed a tug-of-war view of the policy debate, saying elevated risks to both the central bank’s employment and inflation mandates leave the Dec. 9-10 meeting “live” for a possible rate cut, but not a lock.

Speaking earlier in the day, San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly offered a similarly even-handed perspective, saying she viewed last week’s cut as further “insurance” against labor market weakening and has an “open mind” about the need for a similar move in December.

The peso continued to correct ahead of the release of Philippine October inflation data on Wednesday (Nov. 5), Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

He said the October consumer price index (CPI) “is expected to be slightly higher versus 1.7% in September 2025 but still considered benign or still below the BSP’s (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) inflation target range of 2%-4% and could still support future local policy rate cuts.”

A BusinessWorld poll of 17 analysts yielded a median estimate of 1.8% for the October CPI, which would be up slightly from the 1.7% clip in September but slower than the 2.3% seen in the same month last year.

This would be within the BSP’s 1.4-2.2% forecast for the month and mark the eighth straight month that inflation was below its 2%-4% annual goal.

The trader said the peso may rise further on Wednesday on expectations of within-target Philippine inflation.

The trader sees the peso moving between PHP 58.35 and PHP 58.60 versus the greenback, while Mr. Ricafort said the local unit could trade from PHP 58.40 to PHP 58.65. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante with Reuters

Philippine stocks rebound as players pick up blue chips

Philippine stocks rebound as players pick up blue chips

Philippine stocks rebounded on Tuesday as players picked up cheap shares of blue chips following the market’s recent weakness.

The bellwether Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) rose by 0.66% or 38.98 points to close at 5,867.04, while the broader all shares index increased by 0.28% or 9.98 points to 3,558.88.

“The index bounced back from oversold levels following [Monday’s] market meltdown as investors pick up blue chips that have been sold down to multi-year lows,” AP Securities, Inc. Research Head Alfred Benjamin R. Garcia said in a Viber message.

“The benchmark stock index rebounded modestly on the back of bargain hunting and net foreign buying. Monday’s plunge brought many blue chips to compelling valuations, making them attractive to both opportunistic traders and long-term investors,” China Bank Capital Corp. Managing Director Juan Paolo E. Colet said.

However, uncertainty on the political and economic fronts continues to weigh on sentiment, he said.

Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said the PSEi’s rise on Tuesday was likely a technical rebound following its drop to a near seven-month low on Monday amid heavy selling pressure.

“[The] market continues to await the release of inflation and GDP (gross domestic product) figures, along with corporate earnings reports, to confirm its next direction,” he said.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release October inflation data on Nov. 5 (Wednesday) and third-quarter GDP data on Nov. 7 (Friday).

A BusinessWorld poll of 17 analysts yielded a median estimate of 1.8% for October headline inflation. This would be faster than the 1.7% clip in September but within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 1.4-2.2% forecast. It would also mark the eighth month in a row that inflation was below the BSP’s 2-4% annual target.

Meanwhile, Philippine GDP likely grew by 5.3% in the third quarter, based on the median forecast of 18 economists and analysts separately polled by BusinessWorld. This is slower than the 5.5% expansion in the second quarter and is below the government’s 5.5%-6.5% full-year goal.

Sectoral indices ended mixed on Tuesday. Financials climbed by 2.08% or 39.60 points to 1,936.18; property increased by 1.94% or 41.21 points to 2,164.36; and services rose by 0.12% or 2.81 points to 2,268.06.

Meanwhile, industrials declined by 1.23% or 108.43 points to 8,648.65; mining and oil shed 1.2% or 150.41 points to 12,337.88; and holding firms decreased by 0.06% or 3.16 points to 4,751.63.

Market breadth was positive as advancers outnumbered decliners, 108 to 83, while 57 names were unchanged.

Value turnover went down to PHP 6.37 billion on Tuesday with 538.81 million shares traded from the PHP 9.80 billion with 801.95 million issues exchanged on Monday.

Net foreign buying was at PHP 339.79 million, a reversal of the PHP 1.33 billion in net selling recorded on Monday. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

Poll: GDP growth likely slowed in Q3

Poll: GDP growth likely slowed in Q3

The Philippine economy likely cooled in the third quarter as soft government spending, typhoons and corruption scandals weighed on growth momentum, economists said.

However, resilient household spending supported by the central bank’s rate cuts may have helped anchor economic activity, they added.

Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew by 5.3% in the third quarter, based on a median forecast of 18 economists and analysts polled by BusinessWorld.

Q3 GDP growth forecast

This is slower than the 5.5% expansion in the second quarter, but a tad faster than the 5.2% expansion in the July-to-September period of 2024.

If realized, this would bring the average GDP growth to 5.4%, falling short of the government’s 5.5%-6.5% full-year target.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is scheduled to release third-quarter GDP data on Nov. 7.

In a research note, Chinabank Research said that government consumption may have declined due to the timing of disbursements and slower releases for some programs.

“Capital formation was likely weighed down by reduced public infrastructure spending due to the ongoing probe on infrastructure projects,” it said.

HSBC Global Investment Research economist for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Aris D. Dacanay said that since public construction usually represents 5-6% of GDP, the 20% year-on-year drop in public infrastructure spending in July and August may have cut GDP growth by around one percentage point.

Public spending or government final consumption expenditure accounts for almost 18% of the country’s GDP.

Angelo B. Taningco, vice-president and Research Division head at Security Bank Corp., said sluggish capital formation and weak government spending may have dampened growth in the third quarter.

“[This is] hampered by tepid public infrastructure works tainted by corruption in flood control projects,” he said in an e-mail.

Data from the Bureau of the Treasury also showed the National Government disbursed PHP 1.46 trillion in the third quarter, PHP 141.73 billion less than its PHP 1.6-trillion program for the period. This is mainly due to lower spending by the Department of Public Works and Highways, which is at the center of a corruption scandal involving flood control projects.

Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, director of the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, said the corruption scandal involving infrastructure projects was the greatest domestic risk in the third quarter.

“Investor confidence has been shaken. Foreign investors are pulling back…, the scandal has created a toxic mix of political risk, fiscal uncertainty, and social unrest. It threatens our investment-grade rating and undermines our medium-term fiscal framework,” he said in an e-mail.

Mr. Peña-Reyes also noted that in the third quarter, the peso weakened past the PHP 58-per-dollar mark, and the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) fell below the 6,000 psychological support level, reflecting political instability and capital flight.

Bad weather

Several typhoons may have also dragged economic activity during the period, analysts said.

Bank of the Philippine Islands Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. estimated GDP growth at 4.9%, largely due to the series of typhoons and disasters combined with significant decline in infrastructure spending.

In the third quarter, a total of 14 tropical cyclones formed or entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility as reported by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration.

According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, Typhoon Bising and the southwest monsoon caused P12 million in infrastructure damage in July. By August, the combined effects of the monsoon and tropical cyclones Crising, Dante, and Emong resulted in over P21 billion in agricultural and infrastructure losses nationwide.

“Furthermore, agricultural output also declined due to the typhoons. This may have also tempered household spending due to limited movement,” Reinielle Matt M. Erece, an economist at Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc., said in an e-mail.

The agriculture sector accounts for about a tenth of the country’s GDP and provides about a quarter of all jobs. Third-quarter agricultural output data will be released on Nov. 6.

Household consumption

Maybank Investment Bank economist Azril Rosli said that sustained private consumption continues to anchor economic activity, supported by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) rate cuts.

“The BSP’s monetary easing cycle, which began in mid-2024, is providing gradual relief to households and businesses, helping to sustain domestic demand momentum,” Mr. Rosli said.

He added that private consumption remains fundamentally sound, underpinned by steady wage growth and a relatively resilient labor market condition.

Household final consumption expenditure, which accounts for 68% of the economy, rose by 5.5% in the second quarter, faster than 4.8% in the same period last year.

The BSP has now slashed borrowing costs by a cumulative 175 basis points since it began its rate cut cycle in August 2024. This brought the policy rate to 4.75%, the lowest in over three years.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. also signaled another rate cut is on the table at its next policy meeting in December.

Meanwhile, Moody’s Analytics economist Sarah Tan expects the economy to grow by 5.9%, faster than 5.5% in the previous quarter.

“The improvement reflects stronger household spending as monetary policy easing feeds through to lower borrowing costs and improved credit conditions,” she said in an e-mail.

She added that “softer inflation has improved households’ purchasing power and given the central bank space to maintain an accommodative stance.”

In September, inflation quickened to a six-month high of 1.7% in September from 1.5% in August. In the nine-month period, inflation averaged 1.7%, lower than the 3.4% in the same period in 2024.

For Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa, chief economist at the Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co., household consumption will likely deliver a sizable contribution to growth although the pace of expansion may be similar to the previous quarter.

“Despite slower inflation; price levels remain elevated while households rely more on credit,” he said in a Viber message.

Chinabank Research noted that household consumption remained the key driver of GDP growth, supported by low inflation.

“Additionally, the trade deficit narrowed during the quarter, helped by front-loading by US importers early in the period and resilient demand for semiconductors,” it added.

Moody Analytics’ Ms. Tan also noted that on the external side, exports have held up relatively well through July and August, which should support overall trade performance in the third quarter.

However, Mr. Erece said export growth may have slowed as front-loading tapered off with the 19% US tariff on Philippine goods taking effect on Aug. 7.

Outlook

Meanwhile, economists expect Philippine GDP growth to accelerate in the remaining months of 2025.

“We expect growth to average 5.6% for the full year of 2025, settling within the government’s revised growth target range of 5.5% to 6.5%,” Moody’s Analytics’ Ms. Tan said.

She added that monetary easing, a strong labor market, and steady remittances will help sustain growth.

“These factors will sustain consumption, while external trade, on average across the year, should continue to contribute positively despite a softer global backdrop,” she said.

Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, said that modest improvement is expected in the fourth quarter as fiscal spending catches up and monetary easing gains traction.

For Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, “there should be something of a bounce in the fourth quarter.”

“For the most part, we’re sticking to our below-consensus view that 2025 full-year growth will come in at 5.3%, well below the government’s aspirations.”

Mr. Erece said that apart from tighter public spending, the recent corruption scandal may have negatively affected foreign investments, given its impact on trust.

Still, he expects holiday spending to drive fourth-quarter GDP growth.

“However, global trade jitters and public spending scrutiny may continue to drag down growth,” he said.

Maybank’s Mr. Rosli said he expects growth to remain solid at 5.5-5.9% in the fourth quarter, driven by year-end spending from both the government and private sector. The full impact of BSP’s monetary easing is also likely to support consumption and revive investment.

“Overall, our full-year 2025 GDP forecast of 5.6% represents solid and sustainable growth, underpinned by the economy’s fundamental strengths,” Mr. Rosli said. — Heather Caitlin P. Mañago

Philippine manufacturing PMI bounces back to 50.1 in October

Philippine manufacturing PMI bounces back to 50.1 in October

Philippine manufacturing activity rebounded in October, despite a further drop in new orders and output, according to S&P Global.

The S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved to 50.1 in October, a turnaround from 49.9 in September.

A PMI reading above 50 denotes better operating conditions from the preceding month, while a reading below 50 shows a deterioration in operating conditions.

Philippines’ Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), October 2025

S&P Global noted that the latest PMI reading indicates “broadly stable” operating conditions.

Maryam Baluch, economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the Philippine PMI reading in October reveals a “mixed picture.”

“The two largest segments, new orders and output, indicated further declines. Additionally, fresh contractions were observed in new export orders and purchasing activity, highlighting underlying demand conditions,” she said.

S&P Global noted that output and new orders “have now failed to record any growth for a second consecutive month, a trend not seen in over four years.”

“The decline in output was closely associated with falling new orders, which panelists linked to adverse weather conditions and the end-of-life status for certain products,” it said, adding that the pace of contraction slowed month on month.

S&P Global said new factory orders “fell at a stronger rate” in October, amid a “sluggish demand climate, with clients often putting orders on hold.”

“In addition, new export orders fell for the first time since May and at a solid pace which was the most pronounced for a year. Companies reported weaker demand from international clients,” it added.

S&P Global said the sharp drop in new orders led manufacturing firms to scale back their purchasing activity. This was the first decline in purchasing activity in nearly two years.

“However, according to anecdotal evidence, last-minute cancellations of orders meant that both pre- and post-production inventories recorded marginal increases. The latter registered a fresh uptick, marking the first expansion in three months,” it said.

Delivery times for inputs also lengthened in October, it said.

S&P Global said October marked a “further alleviation of underlying cost pressures.”

“The rate of input price inflation was modest and the weakest in three months. However, where goods producers reported higher prices, this was attributed to rising supplier and material costs,” it said.

Ms. Baluch said Filipino manufacturers also offered discounts in October to stimulate demand in a subdued market.

“Charges levied for Filipino manufactured goods fell for the first time in 19 months. The rate of decrease was marginal but the strongest since April 2020,” S&P Global said.

Business confidence also improved, nearing August levels, as manufacturers anticipated stronger output and strengthening demand trends” over the next 12 months.

“On a more positive note, manufacturers grew more optimistic about their growth prospects for output in the coming year. Companies also continued increasing their workforce numbers, with the latest rise in staffing numbers the strongest in three months,” Ms. Baluch said.

Ms. Baluch said the manufacturing sector remained in sluggish territory for most of the second half.

“Whether it can see a notable recovery in performance in the coming months will depend greatly on efforts to stimulate consumer demand,” she said.

S&P Global Marketing Intelligence Economics Associate Director Jingyu Pan said Philippine factory output in October showed that conditions are stabilizing.

“We have the output index falling at a less pronounced, in fact, very marginal pace. I think that’s a positive sign,” she said in an interview on Money Talks with Cathy Yang on One News on Monday.

However, Ms. Pan partly attributed the decline in output to a series of earthquakes in Cebu, a key electronics manufacturing hub, which damaged some business facilities.

Global trade tensions are expected to weigh on new export orders, with subdued demand already seen in October.

“I think, reflecting the kind of worries we had in terms of trade tensions coming through to actually impact the manufacturing economy in a more pronounced phase, especially now that as we enter the final quarter of the year with the tariffs settled in. I think that is something that we have to watch,” she said.

The US implemented the 19% tariff on Philippine-made goods on Aug. 7.

Better weather conditions may have also helped lift the Philippine manufacturing activity in October.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said factory activity shifted to expansion mode partly due to better weather conditions followed by two months of adverse weather and earthquake disruptions.

“(This is) also partly due to the positive effects of the local policy rate cuts that reduced borrowing costs for some local manufacturers,” he said in a Viber message.

In the coming months, Mr. Ricafort warned that political noise could dampen manufacturing activity, especially among firms linked to infrastructure supply chains. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante, Reporter

Philippine industry ‘at its lowest point in recent years’ — Balisacan

Philippine industry ‘at its lowest point in recent years’ — Balisacan

The Philippines’ industry sector — including manufacturing and construction — may have slumped to its lowest level in recent years, dragging third-quarter economic growth, Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said.

“I am not as optimistic (on growth) as I used to, given what the data that have been coming out in recent weeks, and particularly the performance of our industry,” he told reporters on the sidelines of an event on Monday.

“The industry is probably at its lowest point in recent years.”

He did not provide details on the gross domestic product (GDP)  data, which will be released by the Philippine Statistics Authority on Nov. 7.

Mr. Balisacan said the corruption scandal, weather-related disruptions and mounting global uncertainties may have weighed on GDP growth in the third quarter.

He said there was a slowdown in government spending and fixed-capital formation, as well as other areas like industry and services.

A crackdown on anomalous flood control projects alongside a corruption probe may have affected government disbursements.

The Marcos administration only disbursed P1.46 trillion in the third quarter, data from the Bureau of the Treasury showed, PHP 141.73 billion less than its PHP 1.6-trillion program for the period. This is mainly due to lower spending by the Department of Public Works and Highways, which is at the center of a corruption scandal involving flood control projects.

Mr. Balisacan also noted that adverse weather conditions that led to the suspension of work and classes may have contributed to slower growth in the July-to-September period.

However, he expects the impact on growth to be temporary, with a recovery likely in the next few quarters.

In the first six months of 2025, the economy grew by an average of 5.4%. The government is targeting 5.5-6.5% GDP growth this year.

“Our economic fundamentals have remained strong. The potentials have remained strong, our GDP growth potential is quite high, 6% and above. But reaching those potentials is another matter, and those are affected by instability, uncertainty, and we’ll see,” he said.

The country’s GDP likely grew by 5.3% in the third quarter, based on a median forecast of 18 economists and analysts polled by BusinessWorld. This is slower than the 5.5% expansion in the second quarter, but a tad faster than the 5.2% expansion in the July-to-September period of 2024.

Rice tariff review

Meanwhile, Mr. Balisacan said the Economic Development Council is scheduled to convene on Tuesday to tackle the proposal to raise rice tariffs to 35% from the current 15%.

The Department of Trade and Industry will present its recommendation on rice tariff adjustments during the meeting. This recommendation was endorsed to the Council by the Tariff-Related Matters Committee.

The Department Agriculture earlier recommended raising the rice import tariff to its original 35% rate from the current 15%.

Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. on Sunday approved the extension of the country’s rice import ban until yearend.

Sought for comment, Mr. Balisacan said the government has “good enough supply” of rice to temper increases in retail prices.

“The overall goal of that is to protect farmgate prices from further falling, because in the past almost a year now, farmgate prices have dropped by more than 30%,” he said.

Farmer groups have blamed the current 15% tariff for keeping farmgate prices low by encouraging cheaper imports, undermining local producers.

However, Mr. Balisacan warned that tweaking the rice import tariff alone won’t fix the farmers’ problems.

“You have to use a combination of policy tools to address those problems, and that’s what we are going to present tomorrow,” he said noting that this approach will ensure the market will support medium-term and long-term development efforts.

Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura spokesman Jayson H. Cainglet argued that the rice tariff cut to 15% has failed to benefit consumers, with importers and traders instead pocketing the savings.

He noted that palay production cost is P14.61 per kilo, but palay is only being bought at P8-12 per kilo, he told BusinessWorld in a Viber message on Monday.

He also noted that the reduced tariff has resulted in P25-billion foregone revenues from the imported rice as of end-August.

Separately, Mr. Balisacan led the opening of the Presidential Filipinnovation Awards that will select five winners out of 15 finalists which receive a cash grant and post-competition support package worth up to P3.5 million, including coaching and mentoring.

“Our goal here is that we can mainstream innovation in the private sector, that we can increase the success rate of our innovators,” he said during a briefing in Crowne Plaza Manila Galleria.

Economy Undersecretary Rosemarie G. Edillon said the government is targeting to raise the Philippines’ rank in the Global Innovation Index (GII) by 2028. The Philippines is currently at 50th place out of 139 economies in the 2025 GII. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

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