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Archives: Business World Article

Cash remittances jump by 3.5% in January

Cash remittances jump by 3.5% in January

Money sent home by Filipinos abroad climbed by 3.5% year on year in January as a weak peso boosted foreign exchange gains, preliminary Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) data showed.

Cash remittances, or money coursed through banks from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs), rose to USD 3.02 billion in the first month of the year from USD 2.918 billion logged in January 2025.

However, the 3.5% growth was the slowest annual growth seen in three months or since 3% in October last year.

Month on month, cash remittances slid by 14.3% from the record-high USD 3.522 billion in December.

“The United States remained the top source of cash remittances to the Philippines in January 2026, followed by Singapore and Saudi Arabia,” the BSP said in a statement on Monday.

Filipinos in the United States sent most money home with 40.2% of the total, followed by Singapore (7.6%), Saudi Arabia (6.7%), Japan (5.8%), the United Kingdom (4.6%), the United Arab Emirates (3.7%), Canada (3%), Taiwan (2.9%), Qatar (2.8%) and Hong Kong (2.5%).

Cash remittances from land-based workers grew by 3.5% to USD 2.413 billion in January from USD 2.331 billion in the same month in 2025.

On the other hand, remittances from sea-based migrant workers rose by 3.5% to USD 607.777 million from USD 587.024 million last year.

Personal remittances likewise went up by an annual 3.5% to USD 3.358 billion in January from USD 3.243 billion a year ago. These include both cash coursed through banks and informal channels and in-kind remittances.

“The year‑on‑year increase reflects steady overseas employment conditions and sustained income flows from key host countries such as the United States, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia, which continue to anchor remittance growth,” Union Bank of the Philippines Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said via Viber.

Mr. Asuncion noted that the month-on-month decline is not worrisome as remittance inflows usually normalize in January following the holiday-driven surge in December.

“Remittances typically peak during the holidays due to year‑end bonuses and one‑off transfers, then normalize in January, so this pullback is expected and not a cause for concern,” Mr. Asuncion said.

Meanwhile, Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., attributed the annual rise in remittances to the weaker peso and robust overseas employment, allowing Filipinos abroad to earn well.

“The pullback from December is largely seasonal after the holiday surge, but the key point is remittances are still higher than a year ago, showing OFWs’ income remains resilient,” he said in a Viber message. “A weaker peso and steady overseas employment continue to support flows.”

In January, the peso traded between PHP 58 and PHP 59 to the dollar, averaging PHP 59.1622 versus the greenback during the month, according to BSP data.

In the coming months, the peso’s performance and geopolitical developments will determine the flow of remittances into the country, Mr. Asuncion noted.

“Remittance flows in the coming months will depend on labor market conditions in major host economies, exchange rate movements, and broader global growth and geopolitical developments that may affect hiring and wages for overseas Filipinos,” he said.

The peso has depreciated amid the escalating war in the Middle East, with the market anticipating a potential plunge to the PHP 60-per-dollar level this week as the greenback continues to strengthen.

On Monday, the local unit plunged to an all-time low of PHP 59.87 against the greenback, falling by 13.50 centavos from the previous record finish of PHP 59.735 logged on Friday, Bankers Association of the Philippines data showed.

For Mr. Ravelas, remittances growth will likely remain positive this year unless the Middle East war intensifies to threaten OFW jobs in the region or disrupt payment flows.

“Looking ahead, the Middle East conflict adds uncertainty and could cause month‑to‑month volatility, but unless it leads to widespread job losses or payment disruptions, full‑year remittance growth should stay positive,” he said.

“For households, the priority is to use remittances wisely — rebuild savings, reduce debt, and be cautious with spending given ongoing global risks,” he added.

The BSP projects cash remittances to climb by 3% to USD 36.6 billion by yearend. — Katherine K. Chan, Reporter

House approves bill allowing Marcos to suspend or cut excise tax on fuel

House approves bill allowing Marcos to suspend or cut excise tax on fuel

The House of Representatives on Monday passed on final reading a bill authorizing President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. to suspend or cut excise tax collections on fuel products, a move that promises to give some relief to motorists reeling from surging pump prices.

During plenary session, 247 lawmakers voted in favor of House Bill No. 8418, which seeks to give the President the power to temporarily halt or reduce the excise tax rates on fuel during national and global emergencies for no more than six months.

Three were against the bill, which Mr. Marcos certified as urgent to hasten its passage through Congress.

“This measure is a direct response to the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, which has a direct impact on fuel prices and the cost of basic goods in the Philippines,” Majority Floor Leader and Ilocos Norte Rep. Ferdinand Alexander “Sandro” A. Marcos III said in a statement.

“We need to enact this into law to provide immediate relief to our people.”

The bill’s approval comes as the Iran war stretched into its third week with no end in sight, with Washington and Tehran showing no desire to strike a deal to end the conflict.

The Philippines imposes an excise tax of PHP 10 per liter on gasoline, PHP 6 per liter on diesel and PHP 5 per liter on kerosene under the 2017 Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion law. It previously allowed the government to suspend the collection of excise tax on fuel when world oil prices reach USD 80 per barrel for three straight months, but that provision lapsed six years ago.

Under the bill, the President may now suspend or cut the collection of excise taxes on fuel if the average Dubai crude oil based on Mean of Platts Singapore benchmark reaches or exceeds USD 80 per barrel for a month.

But the Development Budget Coordination Committee must give a recommendation before the President can cut or suspend excise taxes on fuel, a key revenue stream for the government.

Any order suspending or reducing excise taxes due to emergencies or calamities must be certified by the Energy secretary, confirming that pump prices have surged “extraordinarily” as a result of the calamity, the bill said.

“The suspension may be applied to specific petroleum products and may be implemented either as a full suspension or partial reduction,” it said.

Under the bill, any suspension or cut in the fuel excise tax rate could be extended beyond six months through a joint congressional resolution, but cannot last longer than a year.

The bill also requires the President to submit to Congress within 15 days of issuing such an order a “factual basis” for halting or cutting the excise tax of petrol, including estimates of foregone revenue and the impact on inflation, fuel prices and economic activity, with monthly reports to follow.

Under the bill, the President may only suspend or reduce excise tax collections on fuel products until Dec. 31, 2028.

Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said giving the President the power to suspend or cut the excise tax on fuel is not advisable.

“Cutting the excise tax means less revenue,” he said in a Viber message, recommending the government opt for a targeted subsidy program for the transport and food sectors instead to rein in surging prices. “A portion of excise tax collections helps pay for targeted aid.”

Department of Economy, Planning, and Development Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan earlier said revenue losses from the suspension of excise taxes on petrol could reach PHP 43.3 billion if the suspension lasts three months, and PHP 106 billion if extended until September.

Biofuels bill

Meanwhile, the House also approved on second reading House Bill No. 8469, which seeks to temporarily suspend the mandatory blending of biofuel on gasoline and diesel to help ease soaring pump prices.

A measure certified as urgent by Mr. Marcos, the bill allows the president to suspend the use of locally sourced biofuels for up to a year if blended gasoline and diesel are at least 5% more expensive than pure fuels.

“The mandatory blending of locally sourced biofuels can lead to a situation where blended fuel becomes more expensive than pure gasoline or diesel, exacerbating the financial burden of the vulnerable,” Palawan Rep. Jose C. Alvarez, who sponsored the bill, told the House floor.

The 2006 biofuels law required all fuels for use in motor engines to be blended with plant-based renewable fuels, and since 2012 gasoline have been sold with a 10% bioethanol mix.

“The Biofuels Act was enacted to reduce the country’s reliance on imported fossil fuels, to support our local agriculture sector and to promote cleaner and more sustainable energy sources,” Mr. Alvarez said.

Noel M. Baga, co‑convener of the Center for Energy Research and Policy, said the government could adopt several measures to lower fuel costs, including declaring a state of calamity to allow the imposition of price ceilings.

“The government can address the ongoing oil crisis through both immediate and long-term measures,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat. — Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporter

Peso dips to record as oil surges, fails to hit PHP 60 as BSP intervenes

Peso dips to record as oil surges, fails to hit PHP 60 as BSP intervenes

The Philippine peso slid to a record low against the dollar on Monday, closing at PHP 59.87, as rising oil prices and expectations of tighter US monetary policy weighed on the currency.

Intervention by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) prevented the peso from breaching the PHP 60-a-dollar mark.

Data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed the peso fell 13.5 centavos from Friday’s close of PHP 59.735, which was previously its record low. Year to date, the local currency has weakened by PHP 1.08 or 1.8% from PHP 58.79 at the end of 2025.

The peso opened Monday slightly stronger at PHP 59.71 a dollar, touching an intraday best of PHP 59.70 and low of PHP 59.95. Dollar turnover fell to USD 1.805 billion from USD 2.228 billion on Friday, reflecting cautious trading amid global uncertainty.

“The dollar-peso traded higher, peaking at PHP 59.95 on persistent demand for safe-haven assets due to the ongoing Middle East conflict and rising oil prices,” a trader said. “BSP intervention limited further dollar rallies.”

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. told Bloomberg News the central bank had intervened to defend the peso. “Since the dollar is down, I assume some intervention can push the peso back below PHP 60,” he said

The BSP has said it steps in only to prevent currency depreciation from becoming inflationary.

Market analysts cited multiple factors behind the peso’s weakness, including the escalating war in the Middle East, higher crude oil prices and reduced expectations for US monetary easing.

The peso was also pressured by reduced expectations of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve because of the war, Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp.

Traders anticipate continued volatility in the near term. One trader expects the peso to continue its slide on Tuesday to PHP 59.50 to PHP 59.95 a dollar.

Another foresees sideways trading as markets react to potential hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, projecting a range of PHP 59.70 to PHP 59.95. Mr. Ricafort sees the peso trading at PHP 59.75 to PHP 59.95.

The peso’s decline highlights the sensitivity of the Philippine currency to global geopolitical shocks, energy prices, and shifts in US monetary policy. BSP intervention appears to have temporarily limited losses, but analysts say sustained support may be required if external pressures persist.

Investors are likely to remain cautious, particularly given the uncertainty in oil markets and the potential for further safe-haven flows toward the dollar, which could continue to pressure the peso in the coming sessions. — Aaron Michael C. Sy

Philippine stocks slide as peso hits record low

Philippine stocks slide as peso hits record low

Philippine shares fell for a third straight session on Monday as investors stayed cautious, with the peso sinking to a record low of PHP 59.87 against the dollar amid surging oil prices and the Middle East war.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) dropped 0.86% or 52.39 points to close at 6,006.55, while the broader all-share index fell 1.19% or 40.42 points to 3,341.69.

“The PSEi ended barely above the 6,000 mark, extending last week’s sell-off amid cautious sentiment, driven by elevated oil prices and the ongoing Middle East tensions,” Luis A. Limlingan, head of sales at Regina Capital Development Corp., said via Viber.

“The market remained pessimistic even after the central bank stepped in to support the peso, keeping traders defensive and wary of further downside if key support levels give way in the near term,” he added.

Investors are closely watching local economic implications of the Middle East war, including rising fuel and energy costs and a weaker peso, which could stoke inflation, Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco, research manager at Philstocks Financial, Inc., said in a Viber message.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said the central bank intervened in the foreign exchange market to prevent the peso from breaching PHP 60 a dollar.

Most sectoral indexes ended lower. Mining and oil dropped 4.58% to 17,140.16; industrials fell 2.57% to 8,656.64; property declined 1.29% to 1,998.51; holding firms slid 1.02% to 4,629.17; and financials eased 0.64% to 1,922.95. On the other hand, services gained 0.16% to 2,722.37.

Losers beat winners, 153 to 53, with 53 stocks unchanged. International Container Terminal Services, Inc. led gainers with a 1.46% rise, followed by DMCI Holdings, Inc. at 0.41%. DigiPlus Interactive Corp. was the worst performer, plunging 5.66% to PHP 18.

Value turnover fell to PHP 9.53 billion, with 3.29 billion shares traded, down from PHP 13.91 billion and 887.43 million shares last Friday.

Net foreign selling eased to PHP 400.15 million from PHP 3.66 billion in the previous session, suggesting some cautious inflows amid the broader market decline.

The combination of record peso depreciation and higher global energy costs continues to weigh on investor sentiment, leaving market participants defensive and selective in their trades. — Alexandria Grace C. Magno

Philippines’ current account gap narrows to USD 16.3B in 2025

Philippines’ current account gap narrows to USD 16.3B in 2025

Strong exports growth and remittance inflows led the Philippines’ current account deficit to narrow at end-2025, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported.

Central bank data showed that the country’s current account posted a USD 16.291-billion gap last year, 12.3% narrower than the USD 18.565-billion deficit seen in 2024.

This was equivalent to -3.3% of Philippine gross domestic product (GDP).

However, the year-end balance was wider than the BSP’s projected USD 15.5-billion deficit or -3.2% of GDP for the year.

In the fourth quarter alone, the country’s current account deficit narrowed by 49.5% to USD 2.471 billion (-1.8% of GDP) from USD 4.894 billion (-3.8% of GDP) in the same year-ago period.

“This was supported by an improved trade-in-goods balance on the back of robust export growth as well as higher income receipts from overseas Filipinos, consistent with record full-year cash remittances in 2025,” the BSP said in a statement released late on Friday.

Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that the country’s trade gap stood at a four-year low of USD 49.17 billion last year, down 9.5% from the USD 54.33-billion deficit in 2024.

This came as goods exports grew by 15.2% to USD 84.41 billion, well above the BSP’s projected 9% growth to USD 60 billion.

In the October-to-December period, the country’s trade in goods balance posted a USD 16.1-billion deficit, narrowing by 14% from the USD 18.7-billion gap seen in the fourth quarter of 2024, “as export growth substantially outpaced the modest uptick in imports.”

Exports rose by 23.8% to USD 15.8 billion from USD 12.8 billion a year earlier due to increased shipments of electronic products, machinery and transport equipment, BSP data showed.

Meanwhile, goods imports stood at USD 31.9 billion, up 1.3% year on year from USD 31.5 billion.

“The uptick was driven primarily by higher outlays for telecommunication equipment and electrical machinery, consistent with ongoing upgrades in the country’s information and communications technology infrastructure,” the central bank said.

The central bank also noted that remittances boosted household consumption last year, which helped cushion the current account against external pressures.

In 2025, remittances from Filipinos abroad climbed by 3.3% year on year to hit a record high of USD 35.634 billion from USD 34.493 billion in 2024, according to separate BSP data.

“At the same time, the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector remained a reliable source of services export earnings, with sustained industry expansion and firm global demand for digital and outsourcing services helping offset softer receipts in other services segments during the year,” the BSP added.

Higher receipts from BPOs brought the net trade-in-services up by 2% to USD 4.1 billion in the fourth quarter from USD 4 billion a year ago.

On the other hand, net receipts in primary income plunged by an annual 46.5% to USD 765 million in the fourth quarter from USD 1.4 billion previously, while net receipts in the secondary income account were up 4.5% to USD 8.8 billion from USD 8.4 billion.

The current account measures the country’s trade in goods and services, as well as primary and secondary income.

Primary income refers to flows of labor and financial resources between resident and nonresident institutional units, while secondary income accounts for transfers between the country and abroad, such as remittances from overseas Filipino workers.

For 2026, the central bank expects the current account deficit to narrow to USD 15.3 billion or -3% of GDP. — Katherine K. Chan

NG debt service bill hits PHP 2.1T in 2025

NG debt service bill hits PHP 2.1T in 2025

The national government (NG) debt service payments jumped to PHP 2.1 trillion in 2025, surpassing the government’s own program which signals mounting fiscal pressures.

Data from the Bureau of the Treasury showed that NG’s debt repayments rose by 4.08% in 2025 from the PHP 2.02 trillion recorded in 2024. It also exceeded the PHP 2.05-trillion full-year program for debt payments by 2.6%.

Debt service refers to payments made by the NG on its domestic and foreign debt.

More than half, or the bulk, or 58.91% of total debt payments came from amortization payments.

Principal payments slipped by 1.46% to PHP 1.24 trillion in 2025 from PHP 1.26 trillion in the previous year. This was 3% higher than the PHP 1.2-trillion program for the year.

Amortization on domestic debt dipped by 0.26% annually to PHP 1.015 trillion in 2025 from PHP 1.018 trillion in 2024.

Principal payments on foreign debt went down by 6.53% to PHP 223.669 billion last year from PHP 239.293 billion in 2024.

On the other hand, interest payments went up by 13.2% to PHP 864.139 billion in 2025 from PHP 763.313 billion in 2024. It was 1.9% higher than the PHP 848.031-billion program for the full year.

Interest paid on domestic debt went up by 17.6% to PHP 634.846 billion in 2025 from PHP 539.829 billion in 2024.

Broken down, PHP 416.77 billion went to interest payments for fixed-rate Treasury bonds, PHP 162.74 billion for retail Treasury bonds, and PHP 44.97 billion for Treasury bills.

For external debt, interest payments went up by 2.6% to PHP 229.293 billion in 2025 from PHP 223.484 billion in the year prior.

December debt service

In December alone, debt repayments increased by 18.6% to PHP 78.642 billion from PHP 66.3 billion in the same month in 2024.

Month on month, debt repayments fell by 12.6% from PHP 89.97 billion in November.

Amortization payments surged by 80.4% to PHP 15.01 billion in December last year from PHP 8.32 billion in December 2024.

Amortization on domestic debt totaled PHP 6.25 billion in December. There were no payments made on domestic debt in December 2024.

Meanwhile, principal payments on foreign debt went up by 5.22% to PHP 8.754 billion in December from PHP 8.32 billion a year prior.

On the other hand, interest payments increased by 9.75% to PHP 63.63 billion in December from PHP 57.98 billion in the same month in 2024.

Interest paid on domestic debt increased by 11.59% to PHP 41.779 billion from PHP 37.44 billion in 2024.

Broken down, interest payments on retail Treasury bonds stood at PHP 19.18 billion, fixed-rate Treasury bonds at PHP 17.47 billion, and Treasury bills at PHP 3.76 billion.

Interest payments on external debt jumped by 6.41% year on year to PHP 21.86 billion in December from PHP 20.54 billion in 2024.

“The rise in debt service reflects more expensive borrowing from higher rates and heavier repayments,” Reyes Tacandong & Co. Senior Adviser Jonathan L. Ravelas said in a Viber message.

“In 2026, pressures should stay high but may stabilize if rates ease — so the priority is smart debt management: lock in better rates, extend maturities, and borrow only for growth‑driving projects,” he added.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the higher debt servicing reflects increased NG outstanding debt in recent years.

For the coming months, he said that the country can expect to make bigger debt payments.

“Geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East since Feb. 28, which led to higher global crude oil prices, could lead to higher inflation and interest rates, which could lead to higher interest payments and debt servicing costs,” he said in a Viber message.

“A higher US dollar-peso exchange rate… would lead to a higher peso equivalent of foreign debts that, in turn, would lead to higher principal servicing costs of foreign debts,” he added. — Justine Irish D. Tabile, Senior Reporter

Philippines jobless rate jumps to over three-year high of 5.8% in January

Philippines jobless rate jumps to over three-year high of 5.8% in January

The Philippines’ unemployment rate climbed to 5.8% in January 2026, marking its highest level in more than three years, as the labor market cooled after the holidays, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said on Friday.

Preliminary results from the January 2026 Labor Force Survey (LFS) showed the number of unemployed Filipinos rose to 2.96 million, from 2.17 million in the same month last year, and 2.26 million in December 2025.

PSA Assistant Secretary Divina Gracia L. Del Prado said that the January unemployment rate was the highest recorded since June 2022, when unemployment stood at 6.0%.

The January jobless rate was higher than the 4.3% in January 2025, and the 4.4% in December 2025.

“Usually in our time series, after the Christmas season, our employment rate really goes down… because there are no longer available jobs,” Ms. Del Prado told a livestreamed news briefing.

“Because in December, of course, there are lots of jobs available for our labor force. But month on month, the number of unemployed increased by 695,000. And most of the reasons for this are that people got tired — maybe they were exhausted from working in December, or believing that there are no jobs available,” she added.

The quality of employment also saw a shift, as the underemployment rate — the proportion of those with jobs but seeking more hours — stood at 13.2% in January 2026. This was a tad lower than the 13.3% underemployment rate in January 2025, but higher than the 8% in December 2025.

About 6.35 million Filipinos were considered underemployed persons in January, slightly decreased from the 6.47 million underemployed in January 2025, and 2.42 million seen in December 2025.

The country’s employment rate fell to 94.2% in January 2026, down from 95.7% in January 2025 and 95.6% in December 2025. This was also the lowest employment rate recorded since June 2022 when it stood at 94%.

The number of employed persons in January 2026 fell to 47.94 million, a decline from 48.49 million employed in the same month last year, and 49.43 million in December 2025.

The labor force participation rate (LFPR) eased to 62.3% in January 2026, translating to 50.89 million Filipinos in the labor force. This was lower than the 63.9% (50.65 million) recorded in January 2025, and the 64.4% in December 2025.

Job losses 

On a year-on-year basis, the agriculture and forestry sub-sector lost 1.42 million jobs in January, driven by a drop in the cultivation of paddy rice, corn, and leafy vegetables. Wholesale and retail trade followed with the loss of 729,000 jobs, while fishing and aquaculture shed 140,000 positions.

On the other hand, several sectors posted annual gains in January, led by administrative and support service activities (+403,000), public administration and defense (+342,000), manufacturing (+326,000), and transportation and storage (+160,000).

Month on month, agriculture and forestry jobs plummeted by 1.76 million, while wholesale and retail trade also saw a month-on-month decrease of 888,000 jobs, followed by construction (-199,000), education (-154,000), and accommodation and food service activities (-140,000).

Ms. Del Prado pointed to weather disruptions as a contributing factor, specifically the impact of Typhoon Ada on regions such as Bicol, Eastern Visayas, and Caraga.

Despite the overall job losses, some sub-sectors showed resilience month-on-month. Manufacturing added 546,000 jobs, while other service activities grew by 248,000, and transportation and storage increased by 238,000 from December 2025 to January 2026.

Regarding the quality of remaining jobs, wage and salary workers continued to make up the bulk of the workforce at 68.8%, followed by the self-employed without employees at 24.7%. Within the wage-earner group, private establishments employed 78.5%, while the government accounted for 14.3%.

Among all regions, South Cotabato, Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Sarangani, and General Santos City (SOCCSKSARGEN) recorded the highest employment rate at 96.0% in January 2026, while Bicol region posted the lowest at 91.8%.

On the other hand, Bicol region logged the highest unemployment rate in the country at 8.2%.

Eight regions recorded unemployment rates exceeding the 5.8% national average, including Eastern Visayas (7.7%), Zamboanga Peninsula (6.7%), Caraga (6.53%), Negros Island Region (6.50%), provinces of Caveat, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon or CALABARZON at 6.4%, Northern Mindanao at 6.1%, and the National Capital Region at 6.0%.

Support for workers

Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said in a statement that the government is intensifying support for the workforce amid “elevated geopolitical tensions and global uncertainties” due to the Iran war.

“Our priority is clear: create more and better jobs at home, strengthen industries, equip our workers with the skills needed for higher-value employment, and ensure that those affected by global disruptions, including OFWs, can transition smoothly into productive opportunities here in the Philippines,” Mr. Balisacan said.

PSA’s Ms. Del Prado warned that the spike in fuel prices could further impact the labor market.

“When the price of oil spikes, businesses, some of them, no longer hire or some of them, lay off. So, it might affect our labor market,” she said.

“Those [migrant workers] who were repatriated [from the Middle East] will also come back home, they will become part of the labor force. Or some of them, not in the labor force, but if they will become part of the labor force and they are unemployed, then they will increase the total number of unemployed and of course the unemployment rate,” she said, adding this will be reflected in the data in the coming months.

Benjamin B. Velasco, an assistant professor at the University of the Philippines Diliman School of Labor and Industrial Relations, said that the big jump in the unemployment rate means that the private sector is not generating enough jobs.

“The unemployment rate for January 2026 should be a wakeup call to the Marcos Jr. administration to shift priorities in its economic and employment agenda,” Mr. Velasco told BusinessWorld in a Facebook messenger chat.

“In the long-term, we need an industrial policy that is state-led and incentivizes labor-intensive and jobs-creating industries and sectors that cater to the domestic market,” he said.

“Things are going to get even worse before they get any better given Trump’s war in Iran which has led to a global economic crisis,” he added. — Erika Mae P. Sinaking, Reporter

DoE chief Garin says pump prices unlikely to go down soon

DoE chief Garin says pump prices unlikely to go down soon

Fuel prices are unlikely to go down anytime soon despite the recent decline in crude prices in the global market, the Energy chief said.

At the same time, a group of jeepney drivers is planning to seek a PHP 5 provisional fare increase from the regulator next week as soaring pump prices put a strain on their daily operations.

“On our calculations, on average, it’s still not going down as we hoped, but at least the market has calmed down slightly. But this war is very erratic. We don’t know what’s going to happen. Nobody knows,” Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin told One News’ The Big Story on Wednesday evening.

Ms. Garin said the Department of Energy (DoE) is monitoring fuel prices as adjustments will only be determined after Friday’s trading in the global market.

“Hopefully, something better will happen, and the prices will stay down and hopefully go down,” she said.

Oil prices dropped by more than 11% on Tuesday, the steepest decline of any session since 2022, Reuters reported.

As a net oil importer, the Philippines is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil supply and prices.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. earlier said the Philippines is exploring alternative oil suppliers to ensure stable fuel supply.

“Actually, there are offers already… So, hopefully we lock in some already to make sure that we have deliveries by April,” Ms. Garin said.

This week, the Philippines had its largest single-week adjustment, as pump prices rose as much as PHP 38.50 per liter.

“We are going to file a petition on Monday at the LTFRB (Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board) for a PHP 5 provisional fare increase,” Pinagkaisang Samahan ng mga Tsuper at Operators Nationwide (PISTON) President Mody T. Floranda told BusinessWorld on Thursday.

He said the provisional fare hike is intended to ease the strain of rising fuel costs on jeepney operators, adding that the PHP 5 adjustment still falls short of covering losses from volatile fuel prices.

Earlier this week, other transport groups like Manibela have also said that they have requested a PHP 2 fare hike, citing fuel price increases.

PISTON’s Mr. Floranda said that since last week, the estimated loss of income for drivers is around PHP 1,000 per day, while the daily expenditure of drivers for fuel has doubled. 

“But the fare hike is only one option, there are other options that the government can explore. We highly favor the suspension of the excise tax. If the government considers that then maybe we will withdraw our petition,” Mr. Floranda said.

Transportation Acting Secretary Giovanni Z. Lopez said in a statement that there will be a fare increase for public utility vehicles (PUV), but did not give details.

“Hopefully, the LTFRB will finish the review of fare hike petitions. We have to treat this very carefully with abundance of caution,” he said.

John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said the proposed PHP 5 fare increase would disproportionately affect low- and middle-income households who allocate a larger share of income to transport.

“Higher commuting costs could force households to reduce spending on other goods and services, potentially slowing consumption in the short term,” Mr. Rivera said in a Viber message.

Targeted transport assistance may be needed to support operators’ viability while also prioritizing household welfare, he said.

“LTFRB already has a time-tested methodology on fare adjustments due to fuel price and other increases — they can dig into their past experience in coming up with the best decision that is fair to all,” Nigel Paul C. Villarete, a senior adviser on public-private partnerships at the technical advisory group Libra Konsult, said in a Viber message.

Rene S. Santiago, an international consultant on transport development and former president of the Transportation Science Society of the Philippines, said the proposed fare hikes are long overdue.

“Delays have weakened public transport, aside from the government losing elbow room to stagger fare increases with a jump in fuel prices. Fuel subsidy is a pittance and benefits only urban-based public transport,” Mr. Santiago said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Lopez said starting March 17, the government will begin disbursing a P5,000 fuel subsidy to PUV drivers in Metro Manila. He said the Department of Transportation (DoTr) has also asked toll operators to provide discounts to buses and trucks.

NLEX Corp. President and General Manager Luis S. Reñon told reporters on Wednesday that the company is in talks with DoTr to provide rebates to haulers and truckers. — Ashley Erika O. Jose and Sheldeen Joy Talavera, Reporters

House OKs bill allowing Marcos to tweak excise tax on fuel on 2nd reading

The House of Representatives on Wednesday passed on second reading a bill authorizing President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. to suspend or cut excise taxes on fuel and other petroleum products.

This comes a day after the House Committee on Ways and Means first took it up as lawmakers aim to equip the government with tools to rein in surging oil prices.

In a voice vote, lawmakers approved House Bill (HB) No. 8418, which sought to provide the President with the power to suspend or reduce excise taxes on petroleum products during national and global emergencies for no more than six months.

The measure would allow the government “to respond promptly to extraordinary fuel price volatility and stabilize domestic fuel prices during the period of severe economic disruptions.”

The bill’s approval comes as the Iran war stretched into its 12th day, with the conflict driving oil prices higher after Tehran choked off energy shipments from the Middle East sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway where a fifth of global oil and gas supplies pass.

As a net importer of oil, the Philippines is highly sensitive to sharp fluctuations in global oil prices.

Under the bill, the President may suspend or reduce the collection of excise taxes on petrol if the average Dubai crude oil price based on Mean of Platts Singapore benchmark reaches or exceeds USD 80 per barrel for a month preceding the issuance of the suspension or reduction order. The Development Budget Coordination Committee will have to give the recommendation to the President.

Any order suspending or reducing excise taxes due to emergencies or calamities must be certified by the Energy secretary, confirming that pump prices have surged “extraordinarily” as a result of the calamity, the bill read.

“The suspension may be applied to specific petroleum products and may be implemented either as a full suspension or partial reduction,” the measure said.

The Philippines imposes an excise tax of PHP 10 per liter on gasoline, PHP 6 per liter on diesel and PHP 5 per liter on kerosene under the 2017 Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion law. It previously allowed the government to suspend the collection of excise tax on petrol when world oil prices reach USD 80 per barrel for three straight months, but that provision lapsed six years ago.

Any suspension or cut in the fuel excise tax rate could be extended beyond six months through a joint congressional resolution, according to HB No. 8418. Any extension cannot last longer than a year, it added.

The bill also requires the President to submit to Congress within 15 days of issuing such an order a “factual basis” for halting or cutting the excise tax of petrol, including estimates of foregone revenue and the impact on inflation, fuel prices and economic activity, with monthly reports to follow.

The President may only suspend or reduce excise tax collections on fuel products until Dec. 31, 2028, it added.

During the plenary, Marikina Rep. Romero “Miro” S. Quimbo, who heads the House Committee on Ways and Means, said lawmakers opted to give the President power to suspend fuel excise taxes until 2028 so they would have standby authority to quickly mitigate oil crises.

“We do not know how long wars in the Middle East will last,” he said in Filipino.

Projections from the Finance department showed suspending excise tax collections could result in PHP 136 billion in foregone revenue, which may further widen the government’s budget deficit and raise the country’s debt.

Department of Economy, Planning, and Development Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan had said revenue losses from the suspension of excise taxes on petrol could reach PHP 43.3 billion if the suspension lasts three months, and PHP 106 billion if extended until September.

“The loss of government revenue, even if painful, will not immediately bring down our economy,” Mr. Quimbo said. “This is for the well-being of the people.”

Funding for government programs, particularly aid for groups vulnerable to the Middle East conflict, will take an initial hit under the proposal, with the impact on state finances expected to deepen the longer the war drags on, said Leonardo A. Lanzona, an economics professor at the Ateneo de Manila University.

“The key is how long this crisis will be,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat. “If this is short, the excise suspension can provide some temporary but mainly marginal relief.”

“But if the crisis becomes longer, the negative effects of reducing or suspending the excise tax will be significant,” he added.

John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said the government should pursue targeted tax relief instead of sweeping measures, warning broad tax cuts could widen the budget deficit.

“The best response is to limit the tax relief to periods of extreme oil shocks, pair it with spending reprioritization, and strengthen collection efficiency in other areas such as value-added tax, customs and digital taxation,” he said in a Viber message. “It would also help to focus support on the most affected sectors such as public transport and agriculture rather than subsidizing all fuel users.” — Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporter

Philippine semiconductor exports may reach USD 50B this year

Philippine semiconductor exports may reach USD 50B this year

Philippine export receipts of semiconductor and electronic products are expected to rise to a record USD 50 billion this year despite global trade uncertainties and an ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the Semiconductor and Electronics Industries in the Philippines Foundation, Inc. (SEIPI) said.

“At least we would breach USD 50 billion,” SEIPI President Danilo C. Lachica told reporters on the sidelines of the ASEAN Business Environment Forum on Wednesday.

For 2026, SEIPI projects semiconductor and electronics exports to grow by a 5% this year.

SEIPI data showed that electronics exports rose by 16.11% to USD 49.64 billion in 2025 from USD 42.75 billion in 2024.

“Last year was close to a record. It’s USD 20 million short of our 2022 record,” Mr. Lachica said.

“Of course, there are geopolitical concerns, such as the Iran war and the US tariffs,” he noted.

Mr. Lachica said the Iran war will unlikely have a significant effect on the industry’s export growth, noting that the Middle East is not a key market for the Philippines’ electronics and semiconductor products.

“So far, we don’t see it affecting demand, but then again, we’re at the edge of our seats,” he said.

Outside North America and Asia, the country’s top destinations for electronics exports include Germany and the Netherlands, he noted.

Despite this, Mr. Lachica said that ongoing tensions in the Middle East may drive up operating costs for the industry.

“The cost of fuel, transportation, and energy will have eventually an impact,” he added.

“Right now, only the cost of operations will increase, but it’s still not disrupting the supply chain,” Mr. Lachica said in mixed English and Filipino.

Global fuel shipments are currently disrupted amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas pass through, amid the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.

Mr. Lachica said the uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies still poses a risk to the industry this year.

US President Donald J. Trump in February announced that he will be imposing a new 15% duty on US imports. This came after the US Supreme Court earlier ruled that he had exceeded his authority when he imposed the reciprocal tariffs.

Finance Secretary Frederick D. Go earlier said that the majority of the country’s exports — including semiconductors and key agricultural products — were already exempted before the US Supreme Court’s ruling.

Mr. Lachica said the industry is still shielded from the United States’ 25% tariff on the exports of artificial intelligence (AI) chips.

“The good news is we don’t produce AI chips itself. What we produce are peripherals like power devices and controllers supporting the AI infrastructure,” he said.

Mr. Trump in January slapped a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, particularly on advanced computing chips, citing national security and economic risks.

Mr. Lachica also said that recent electronic and semiconductor investors in the Philippines are focusing on expansion, and less on new investments.

He noted that demand mainly centered on automotives, components, and AI peripherals.

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that exports of electronic products grew by 17% to USD 46 billion in 2025, while semiconductor exports rose by 18.7% to USD 34.62 billion. — Beatriz Marie D. Cruz, Reporter

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