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Diesel prices could reach up to PHP 115 per liter this week at gasoline stations within Metro Manila and nearby areas as a fresh wave of big-time price increases is set to be implemented amid the Middle East conflict.

Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin confirmed that diesel costs could go beyond PHP 100 per liter this week.

“It’s possible. Actually, our estimate is that it could reach PHP 115,” she told reporters in a mix of Filipino and English.

Starting Tuesday, March 17, gasoline prices will increase by PHP 12.90 to PHP 16.60 per liter, diesel by PHP 20.40 to PHP 23.90 per liter, and kerosene by PHP 6.90 to PHP 8.90 per liter.

Based on the monitoring of the Department of Energy (DoE), gasoline prices may go as high as PHP 91.60 per liter while diesel may surge to PHP 114.90 per liter. Kerosene prices may jump to PHP 143.79 per liter.

Some oil companies, including Shell Pilipinas Corp., Petron Corp., Total (Philippines) Corp., Seaoil Philippines, Inc., Flying V, and Jetti Petroleum, Inc., have agreed to stagger the implementation of the increase in two to three tranches within the week.

The latest price adjustments mark the 12^th consecutive weekly increase for diesel and kerosene prices, and 10^th straight week for gasoline.

“Today, we set a record. We have two of the highest jumps in oil prices. And (fuel prices) are also at the most expensive,” Ms. Garin said.

Local pump prices remain elevated amid the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran, which led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for one-fifth of the world’s oil.

As a net importer of crude oil, the Philippines is vulnerable to global crude price swings.

Around 98% of the country’s crude imports are sourced from the Middle East. The remaining 2% is imported from Brunei and Malaysia.

Adequate supply

Ms. Garin assured that the Philippines has enough supply that could last until end of April.

“The most important (thing) for today is that we have supply. There is no need to cause panic among our people,” she said.

Ms. Garin said that the government is negotiating for additional supply of fuel from other countries, including South Korea, Thailand, Singapore, and Japan.

The DoE has also tapped state-run Philippine National Oil Co. to search for alternative suppliers for stockpile.

Meanwhile, Ms. Garin said the country’s remaining oil refiner, Petron, is negotiating with Russia for supply of crude oil as the US eased sanctions on the latter.

“We’re waiting for that on what is the progress and talks on procuring from Russia, but we have already done the work,” she said.

Ms. Garin said she is in favor of revisiting the oil deregulation law, but to a certain extent.

“I do believe this system is only effective during good times. If prices are favorable for everyone, then things are fine. But in bad times, it does not work very effectively,” she said.

Enacted in 1998, the law allows oil companies to set and adjust pump prices based on global oil prices and other market factors, instead of awaiting government approval.

“In times like this, there has to be a certain control. Not because we want to limit profit or competition that is there, but we want also to protect the interest of the public,” Ms. Garin said.

The Energy chief also assured the country has a stable supply of electricity, but the consumption should be managed.

In a statement on Monday, consumer group ILAW Pilipinas urged the government to implement immediate measures that could help cushion consumers from price shocks, including the suspension or reduction of local taxes and tariffs on fuel and electricity.

“A potential increase in electricity prices shows how quickly international conflicts can translate into higher costs for households and small businesses,” said ILAW Pilipinas Youth Convenor Francine Pradez. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera, Reporter

Money sent home by Filipinos abroad climbed by 3.5% year on year in January as a weak peso boosted foreign exchange gains, preliminary Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) data showed.

Cash remittances, or money coursed through banks from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs), rose to USD 3.02 billion in the first month of the year from USD 2.918 billion logged in January 2025.

However, the 3.5% growth was the slowest annual growth seen in three months or since 3% in October last year.

Month on month, cash remittances slid by 14.3% from the record-high USD 3.522 billion in December.

“The United States remained the top source of cash remittances to the Philippines in January 2026, followed by Singapore and Saudi Arabia,” the BSP said in a statement on Monday.

Filipinos in the United States sent most money home with 40.2% of the total, followed by Singapore (7.6%), Saudi Arabia (6.7%), Japan (5.8%), the United Kingdom (4.6%), the United Arab Emirates (3.7%), Canada (3%), Taiwan (2.9%), Qatar (2.8%) and Hong Kong (2.5%).

Cash remittances from land-based workers grew by 3.5% to USD 2.413 billion in January from USD 2.331 billion in the same month in 2025.

On the other hand, remittances from sea-based migrant workers rose by 3.5% to USD 607.777 million from USD 587.024 million last year.

Personal remittances likewise went up by an annual 3.5% to USD 3.358 billion in January from USD 3.243 billion a year ago. These include both cash coursed through banks and informal channels and in-kind remittances.

“The year‑on‑year increase reflects steady overseas employment conditions and sustained income flows from key host countries such as the United States, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia, which continue to anchor remittance growth,” Union Bank of the Philippines Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said via Viber.

Mr. Asuncion noted that the month-on-month decline is not worrisome as remittance inflows usually normalize in January following the holiday-driven surge in December.

“Remittances typically peak during the holidays due to year‑end bonuses and one‑off transfers, then normalize in January, so this pullback is expected and not a cause for concern,” Mr. Asuncion said.

Meanwhile, Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., attributed the annual rise in remittances to the weaker peso and robust overseas employment, allowing Filipinos abroad to earn well.

“The pullback from December is largely seasonal after the holiday surge, but the key point is remittances are still higher than a year ago, showing OFWs’ income remains resilient,” he said in a Viber message. “A weaker peso and steady overseas employment continue to support flows.”

In January, the peso traded between PHP 58 and PHP 59 to the dollar, averaging PHP 59.1622 versus the greenback during the month, according to BSP data.

In the coming months, the peso’s performance and geopolitical developments will determine the flow of remittances into the country, Mr. Asuncion noted.

“Remittance flows in the coming months will depend on labor market conditions in major host economies, exchange rate movements, and broader global growth and geopolitical developments that may affect hiring and wages for overseas Filipinos,” he said.

The peso has depreciated amid the escalating war in the Middle East, with the market anticipating a potential plunge to the PHP 60-per-dollar level this week as the greenback continues to strengthen.

On Monday, the local unit plunged to an all-time low of PHP 59.87 against the greenback, falling by 13.50 centavos from the previous record finish of PHP 59.735 logged on Friday, Bankers Association of the Philippines data showed.

For Mr. Ravelas, remittances growth will likely remain positive this year unless the Middle East war intensifies to threaten OFW jobs in the region or disrupt payment flows.

“Looking ahead, the Middle East conflict adds uncertainty and could cause month‑to‑month volatility, but unless it leads to widespread job losses or payment disruptions, full‑year remittance growth should stay positive,” he said.

“For households, the priority is to use remittances wisely — rebuild savings, reduce debt, and be cautious with spending given ongoing global risks,” he added.

The BSP projects cash remittances to climb by 3% to USD 36.6 billion by yearend. — Katherine K. Chan, Reporter

The House of Representatives on Monday passed on final reading a bill authorizing President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. to suspend or cut excise tax collections on fuel products, a move that promises to give some relief to motorists reeling from surging pump prices.

During plenary session, 247 lawmakers voted in favor of House Bill No. 8418, which seeks to give the President the power to temporarily halt or reduce the excise tax rates on fuel during national and global emergencies for no more than six months.

Three were against the bill, which Mr. Marcos certified as urgent to hasten its passage through Congress.

“This measure is a direct response to the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, which has a direct impact on fuel prices and the cost of basic goods in the Philippines,” Majority Floor Leader and Ilocos Norte Rep. Ferdinand Alexander “Sandro” A. Marcos III said in a statement.

“We need to enact this into law to provide immediate relief to our people.”

The bill’s approval comes as the Iran war stretched into its third week with no end in sight, with Washington and Tehran showing no desire to strike a deal to end the conflict.

The Philippines imposes an excise tax of PHP 10 per liter on gasoline, PHP 6 per liter on diesel and PHP 5 per liter on kerosene under the 2017 Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion law. It previously allowed the government to suspend the collection of excise tax on fuel when world oil prices reach USD 80 per barrel for three straight months, but that provision lapsed six years ago.

Under the bill, the President may now suspend or cut the collection of excise taxes on fuel if the average Dubai crude oil based on Mean of Platts Singapore benchmark reaches or exceeds USD 80 per barrel for a month.

But the Development Budget Coordination Committee must give a recommendation before the President can cut or suspend excise taxes on fuel, a key revenue stream for the government.

Any order suspending or reducing excise taxes due to emergencies or calamities must be certified by the Energy secretary, confirming that pump prices have surged “extraordinarily” as a result of the calamity, the bill said.

“The suspension may be applied to specific petroleum products and may be implemented either as a full suspension or partial reduction,” it said.

Under the bill, any suspension or cut in the fuel excise tax rate could be extended beyond six months through a joint congressional resolution, but cannot last longer than a year.

The bill also requires the President to submit to Congress within 15 days of issuing such an order a “factual basis” for halting or cutting the excise tax of petrol, including estimates of foregone revenue and the impact on inflation, fuel prices and economic activity, with monthly reports to follow.

Under the bill, the President may only suspend or reduce excise tax collections on fuel products until Dec. 31, 2028.

Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said giving the President the power to suspend or cut the excise tax on fuel is not advisable.

“Cutting the excise tax means less revenue,” he said in a Viber message, recommending the government opt for a targeted subsidy program for the transport and food sectors instead to rein in surging prices. “A portion of excise tax collections helps pay for targeted aid.”

Department of Economy, Planning, and Development Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan earlier said revenue losses from the suspension of excise taxes on petrol could reach PHP 43.3 billion if the suspension lasts three months, and PHP 106 billion if extended until September.

Biofuels bill

Meanwhile, the House also approved on second reading House Bill No. 8469, which seeks to temporarily suspend the mandatory blending of biofuel on gasoline and diesel to help ease soaring pump prices.

A measure certified as urgent by Mr. Marcos, the bill allows the president to suspend the use of locally sourced biofuels for up to a year if blended gasoline and diesel are at least 5% more expensive than pure fuels.

“The mandatory blending of locally sourced biofuels can lead to a situation where blended fuel becomes more expensive than pure gasoline or diesel, exacerbating the financial burden of the vulnerable,” Palawan Rep. Jose C. Alvarez, who sponsored the bill, told the House floor.

The 2006 biofuels law required all fuels for use in motor engines to be blended with plant-based renewable fuels, and since 2012 gasoline have been sold with a 10% bioethanol mix.

“The Biofuels Act was enacted to reduce the country’s reliance on imported fossil fuels, to support our local agriculture sector and to promote cleaner and more sustainable energy sources,” Mr. Alvarez said.

Noel M. Baga, co‑convener of the Center for Energy Research and Policy, said the government could adopt several measures to lower fuel costs, including declaring a state of calamity to allow the imposition of price ceilings.

“The government can address the ongoing oil crisis through both immediate and long-term measures,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat. — Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporter

Strong exports growth and remittance inflows led the Philippines’ current account deficit to narrow at end-2025, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported.

Central bank data showed that the country’s current account posted a USD 16.291-billion gap last year, 12.3% narrower than the USD 18.565-billion deficit seen in 2024.

This was equivalent to -3.3% of Philippine gross domestic product (GDP).

However, the year-end balance was wider than the BSP’s projected USD 15.5-billion deficit or -3.2% of GDP for the year.

In the fourth quarter alone, the country’s current account deficit narrowed by 49.5% to USD 2.471 billion (-1.8% of GDP) from USD 4.894 billion (-3.8% of GDP) in the same year-ago period.

“This was supported by an improved trade-in-goods balance on the back of robust export growth as well as higher income receipts from overseas Filipinos, consistent with record full-year cash remittances in 2025,” the BSP said in a statement released late on Friday.

Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that the country’s trade gap stood at a four-year low of USD 49.17 billion last year, down 9.5% from the USD 54.33-billion deficit in 2024.

This came as goods exports grew by 15.2% to USD 84.41 billion, well above the BSP’s projected 9% growth to USD 60 billion.

In the October-to-December period, the country’s trade in goods balance posted a USD 16.1-billion deficit, narrowing by 14% from the USD 18.7-billion gap seen in the fourth quarter of 2024, “as export growth substantially outpaced the modest uptick in imports.”

Exports rose by 23.8% to USD 15.8 billion from USD 12.8 billion a year earlier due to increased shipments of electronic products, machinery and transport equipment, BSP data showed.

Meanwhile, goods imports stood at USD 31.9 billion, up 1.3% year on year from USD 31.5 billion.

“The uptick was driven primarily by higher outlays for telecommunication equipment and electrical machinery, consistent with ongoing upgrades in the country’s information and communications technology infrastructure,” the central bank said.

The central bank also noted that remittances boosted household consumption last year, which helped cushion the current account against external pressures.

In 2025, remittances from Filipinos abroad climbed by 3.3% year on year to hit a record high of USD 35.634 billion from USD 34.493 billion in 2024, according to separate BSP data.

“At the same time, the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector remained a reliable source of services export earnings, with sustained industry expansion and firm global demand for digital and outsourcing services helping offset softer receipts in other services segments during the year,” the BSP added.

Higher receipts from BPOs brought the net trade-in-services up by 2% to USD 4.1 billion in the fourth quarter from USD 4 billion a year ago.

On the other hand, net receipts in primary income plunged by an annual 46.5% to USD 765 million in the fourth quarter from USD 1.4 billion previously, while net receipts in the secondary income account were up 4.5% to USD 8.8 billion from USD 8.4 billion.

The current account measures the country’s trade in goods and services, as well as primary and secondary income.

Primary income refers to flows of labor and financial resources between resident and nonresident institutional units, while secondary income accounts for transfers between the country and abroad, such as remittances from overseas Filipino workers.

For 2026, the central bank expects the current account deficit to narrow to USD 15.3 billion or -3% of GDP. — Katherine K. Chan

The national government (NG) debt service payments jumped to PHP 2.1 trillion in 2025, surpassing the government’s own program which signals mounting fiscal pressures.

Data from the Bureau of the Treasury showed that NG’s debt repayments rose by 4.08% in 2025 from the PHP 2.02 trillion recorded in 2024. It also exceeded the PHP 2.05-trillion full-year program for debt payments by 2.6%.

Debt service refers to payments made by the NG on its domestic and foreign debt.

More than half, or the bulk, or 58.91% of total debt payments came from amortization payments.

Principal payments slipped by 1.46% to PHP 1.24 trillion in 2025 from PHP 1.26 trillion in the previous year. This was 3% higher than the PHP 1.2-trillion program for the year.

Amortization on domestic debt dipped by 0.26% annually to PHP 1.015 trillion in 2025 from PHP 1.018 trillion in 2024.

Principal payments on foreign debt went down by 6.53% to PHP 223.669 billion last year from PHP 239.293 billion in 2024.

On the other hand, interest payments went up by 13.2% to PHP 864.139 billion in 2025 from PHP 763.313 billion in 2024. It was 1.9% higher than the PHP 848.031-billion program for the full year.

Interest paid on domestic debt went up by 17.6% to PHP 634.846 billion in 2025 from PHP 539.829 billion in 2024.

Broken down, PHP 416.77 billion went to interest payments for fixed-rate Treasury bonds, PHP 162.74 billion for retail Treasury bonds, and PHP 44.97 billion for Treasury bills.

For external debt, interest payments went up by 2.6% to PHP 229.293 billion in 2025 from PHP 223.484 billion in the year prior.

December debt service

In December alone, debt repayments increased by 18.6% to PHP 78.642 billion from PHP 66.3 billion in the same month in 2024.

Month on month, debt repayments fell by 12.6% from PHP 89.97 billion in November.

Amortization payments surged by 80.4% to PHP 15.01 billion in December last year from PHP 8.32 billion in December 2024.

Amortization on domestic debt totaled PHP 6.25 billion in December. There were no payments made on domestic debt in December 2024.

Meanwhile, principal payments on foreign debt went up by 5.22% to PHP 8.754 billion in December from PHP 8.32 billion a year prior.

On the other hand, interest payments increased by 9.75% to PHP 63.63 billion in December from PHP 57.98 billion in the same month in 2024.

Interest paid on domestic debt increased by 11.59% to PHP 41.779 billion from PHP 37.44 billion in 2024.

Broken down, interest payments on retail Treasury bonds stood at PHP 19.18 billion, fixed-rate Treasury bonds at PHP 17.47 billion, and Treasury bills at PHP 3.76 billion.

Interest payments on external debt jumped by 6.41% year on year to PHP 21.86 billion in December from PHP 20.54 billion in 2024.

“The rise in debt service reflects more expensive borrowing from higher rates and heavier repayments,” Reyes Tacandong & Co. Senior Adviser Jonathan L. Ravelas said in a Viber message.

“In 2026, pressures should stay high but may stabilize if rates ease — so the priority is smart debt management: lock in better rates, extend maturities, and borrow only for growth‑driving projects,” he added.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the higher debt servicing reflects increased NG outstanding debt in recent years.

For the coming months, he said that the country can expect to make bigger debt payments.

“Geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East since Feb. 28, which led to higher global crude oil prices, could lead to higher inflation and interest rates, which could lead to higher interest payments and debt servicing costs,” he said in a Viber message.

“A higher US dollar-peso exchange rate… would lead to a higher peso equivalent of foreign debts that, in turn, would lead to higher principal servicing costs of foreign debts,” he added. — Justine Irish D. Tabile, Senior Reporter