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The Bureau of Customs (BoC) is holding the line on its PHP 958.7-billion revenue goal for 2025 despite a sharp drop in imports and fewer working days in October that slowed collections, a stance that keeps pressure on the agency as the government grapples with weaker fiscal inflows.

Customs Commissioner Ariel F. Nepomuceno said the bureau is not giving up on the full-year target even after the total volume of imports fell by 3% or about P80 billion last month, denting duties and taxes.

“I don’t want to give up because we’re already at 98% efficiency,” he told reporters on the sidelines of a Senate plenary debate on the 2026 budget on Nov. 17. “We can still do it if we can in November [and] December.”

The BoC collects taxes and duties from all goods imported to the Philippines.

The Department of Finance earlier warned that Customs, one of the country’s revenue-generating agencies, may miss its full-year targets this year amid slower global trade due to US President Donald J. Trump’s tariff policies.

“We could have hit the target this October if there had been one more working day. Compared to last year, there were more working days… due to the storms,” he said.

The Philippines was battered by back‑to‑back storms, including typhoons Tino and Uwan, which shut businesses, ravaged cities and forced class suspensions in October.

The latest data from the Treasury showed that Customs revenue collection inched up by 1.59% to PHP 701.7 billion in the first nine months, accounting for 73.12% of the full-year target.

Customs has yet to release a breakdown of its October collections.

Despite this, Mr. Nepomuceno said Customs is banking on petroleum imports to help offset weaker revenues as the extension of the rice import ban and slower trade weigh on collections.

“But we’re trying to check if there are other sources that can compensate (for the slower revenues). Like petroleum products, probably we can generate more revenues from that, given that the ban for rice importation has been extended,” he said.

Mr. Nepomuceno warned that foregone revenues from the rice import freeze, expected to last until mid-January, could reach over PHP 6 billion.

He also noted that Customs seized PHP 3.6 billion worth of smuggled goods between July and September.

“The new team accounted for about 50% of total apprehensions in just 90 days. So, there is a sense of hope that we can improve further until we fully digitalize,” he said.

Customs earlier reported the BoC is also looking to enter into a public and private partnership to fully digitalize its operations.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the BoC can still meet its PHP 958.7‑billion revenue goal for 2025 if import volumes rebound.

“Imports could increase as more exporting countries diversify exports away from the US and more for countries like the Philippines amid Trump’s higher tariffs, trade wars, and protectionist policies,” he said in a Viber message. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante, Reporter

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) could cut policy rates again at its December meeting, its governor said on Tuesday.

“I would say it’s possible,” BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. told reporters when asked about the likelihood of rate cuts at the Monetary Board’s Dec. 11 meeting.

However, he ruled out a jumbo cut, noting that the next rate cut will likely be another “baby step” or by 25 basis points (bps).

The Monetary Board delivered a 25-bp cut at its Oct. 9 meeting, bringing the benchmark policy rate to an over three-year low of 4.75%, as both its economic outlook and investor confidence weakened amid the flood control corruption scandal. 

It has so far lowered borrowing costs by a total of 175 bps since it began its easing cycle in August 2024.

Another rate cut at the Monetary Board’s last meeting this year on Dec. 11 would mark its fifth consecutive cut since April.

Mr. Remolona said they are still considering whether the weaker-than-expected third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was due to a slowdown in demand or supply.

“Kung supply side, wala kaming magagawa (If it’s from the supply side, we can’t do anything),” he told reporters on the sidelines of the Financial Education Stakeholders’ Congress 2025 on Tuesday. “So, how much is demand?… We’ll have to figure out how much is demand and how much is supply.”

In the third quarter, the Philippine economy grew by 4%, the slowest growth in over four years, as a corruption scandal weighed on government spending and dampened investor and consumer confidence.

For the nine-month period, GDP growth averaged 5%, below the government’s 5.5-6.5% target for the year.

Meanwhile, the central bank chief said the Monetary Board is still deciding if they would trim banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR).

“Pinag-iisipan pa ’yun… Inaayos pa namin ’yung liquidity sa system kung gaano karami, kung sobra-sobra. Kasi pag binaba mo yung reserve requirement dadami pa ’yung liquidity (That is still being considered… We are still fixing the liquidity in the system (to see) how much there is, if it’s excessive. Because if you lower the reserve requirement, liquidity will increase further),” Mr. Remolona said.

In February, the BSP cut universal and commercial banks and nonbank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions’ RRR by 200 bps to 5%. Digital banks’ RRR was reduced by 150 bps to 2.5%, while thrift banks’ RRR was lowered by 100 bps to 0%.

The RRR cuts took effect in the week of March 28.

Also, Mr. Remolona said they are not worried about the peso’s recent movement but noted that they have been intervening a bit in the foreign exchange market.

“Konti lang, para hindi lang magulo masyado (Just a little, so it’s not too messy),” he said.

The BSP chief earlier said they would only intervene if the peso depreciates so sharply that it would become inflationary.

On Tuesday, the local unit weakened to PHP 58.985 against the dollar, slipping by 5.4 centavos from its PHP 58.931 finish on Monday, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed.

On Nov. 12, the peso slumped to a record low of PHP 59.17 versus the greenback. — Katherine K. Chan

The sharp slowdown in government spending tied to the widening flood control corruption scandal is pushing the Philippines to cut its medium-term growth goals, with the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) likely to trim its 2026 target to 5-6%, Executive Secretary and former Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said. 

“Realistically, for next year, it will be from 5-6%. Because we’re coming from a low base,” Mr. Recto told reporters on the sidelines of a Senate hearing on Nov. 17.

“(The growth) will take some time, maybe a quarter, before we can go back to the regular growth rate,” he added.

In June, the DBCC tempered its growth forecast to 5.5-6.5% for 2025 and 6-7% for 2026-2028, mainly due to “heightened global uncertainties” arising from the Middle East conflict and US tariffs.

However, in the first nine months of the year, gross domestic product (GDP) growth only averaged 5% after the weaker-than-expected 4% growth in the third quarter, reflecting the slowdown in public spending and household consumption.

“Our fundamentals are okay. The only thing is to regain the trust and confidence of our consumers, of our businessmen, and the only way we can do that is to show accountability,” he said.

Mr. Recto, who was appointed by President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. as executive secretary on Monday, also hinted that the DBCC could reset growth targets through 2030, as the economy is now expected to grow by 4.7-5.2% in 2025.

The DBCC is set to review its macroeconomic assumptions and targets at a meeting in December, he said.

For his part, Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said the DBCC may keep its 6-7% growth target for 2026.

“I think 6% to 7% should be doable next year. But of course, that assumes that we can really address the issues that have faced us and confronted us,” he told reporters on Nov. 17.

Mr. Balisacan said he is hoping for at least 5% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, buoyed by favorable external trade.

“I would not mind our economy slowing down in one quarter, two quarters. As long as that will lead to a stronger economy in the medium term,” he said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Recto said the DBCC may have to stick to its P4.52-trillion revenue target this year, even as growth slows.

“Revenues will get affected a bit. But we’ve already taken care of that for the year. Our deficit will be on target. So, what we will miss is the growth rate, unfortunately. But moving forward, everything will be upside,” he said.

Mr. Recto said the Philippines is still on track to trim the fiscal deficit to 5.5% of GDP this year.

“We’re on target. Whatever our deficit goal is for the year, including debt, we are not borrowing beyond that,” he said.

Corruption cost

The Philippine growth outlook is now being clouded by a corruption scandal involving government officials and lawmakers who have allegedly colluded with private contractors to receive billions of kickbacks from projects.

According to the Department of Finance (DoF), the economic impact of corruption related to the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) flood control projects could have reached between P145.4 billion and P407 billion from 2023 to 2025. This assumes that between 25% and 70% of the DPWH project costs were lost to corruption.

“Given the lower GDP with corruption, there is a foregone employment ranging from 327,000 to 914,000 jobs, for the same period,” the DoF said.

“On average, GDP could have been PHP 48.4 [billion] to PHP 135.7 billion higher every year while generating 95,000 to 266,000 additional jobs annually from 2023 to 2025 if the flood control budget had been properly and fully implemented and utilized (i.e., no corruption),” the DoF said. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

Money sent home by overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) jumped by an annual 3.7% in September, the fastest pace in five months, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said on Monday.

Data from the central bank showed cash remittances rose to USD 3.12 billion in September from USD 3.01 billion in the same month in 2024.

This was the fastest growth since the 4% logged in April.

Month on month, cash remittances increased by 4.84% from USD 2.977 billion in August.

For the first nine months of the year, cash remittances sent through banks increased by 3.2% to USD 26.03 billion from USD 25.23 billion a year ago.

“The United States remained the top source of remittances to the Philippines during January-September 2025, followed by Singapore, and Saudi Arabia,” the BSP said in a statement.

Cash remittances from the US accounted for 40.4% of the total in the nine-month period.

This was followed by Singapore (7.1%), Saudi Arabia (6.4%), Japan (4.9%) the United Kingdom (4.8%), the United Arab Emirates (4.5%), Canada (3.5%), Qatar (2.9%), Taiwan (2.8%) and South Korea (2.5%).

Meanwhile, personal remittances went up by 3.8% to USD 3.46 billion in September from USD 3.34 billion a year earlier.

In the January-to-September period, personal remittances rose by 3.2% to USD 28.97 billion from USD 28.07 billion a year ago.

Personal remittances include both cash coursed through banks and informal channels as well as in-kind remittances.

Analysts said OFWs sent home more money starting September, as the holiday season approaches.

“The ‘ber’ months effect kicked in early, with OFWs sending more ahead of the long holiday season,” Reyes Tacandong & Co. Senior Adviser Jonathan L. Ravelas said in a Viber message.

He added that the strong labor market and a competitive peso also supported remittance growth in September.

The peso closed at PHP 58.196 per dollar on Sept. 30, weakening by P HP 1.066 or 1.87% from PHP 57.13 on Aug. 29.

In September, the country’s unemployment rate improved to 3.8% from 3.9% in August. For the first nine months, the jobless rate stood at 4.1%, a tad higher than 4% in the same period last year.

“The onset of ‘ber’ months marks the start of the holiday season for Filipinos. Thus, we may expect OFWs to send their earnings to their families here for the celebrations and gatherings,” Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc. economist Reinielle Matt M. Erece said in a Viber message.

Mr. Erece said remittance growth could be faster from October to December, before stabilizing in January 2026.

“For the fourth quarter, expect remittances to stay resilient and peak in December. BSP’s 3% full-year growth target looks well within reach,” Mr. Ravelas likewise said.

The BSP expects cash remittances to grow by 3% to USD 35.5 billion this year. —Aaron Michael C. Sy, Reporter

Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. on Monday appointed Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto as the new executive secretary and economic czar Frederick D. Go to take over the Finance department, marking the biggest Cabinet shake-up since the eruption of the multibillion-peso flood control scandal.

“These leadership changes reinforce the President’s commitment to strengthening institutions, improving coordination across government, and keeping the administration focused on delivering stability, opportunity, and security to Filipino families,” Palace Press Officer Clarissa A. Castro told a news briefing.

The appointments were announced after Mr. Marcos accepted the resignation of Executive Secretary Lucas P. Bersamin and Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman.

“Both officials respectfully offered and tendered their resignations out of delicadeza, after their departments were mentioned in allegations related to the flood control anomaly currently under investigation and in recognition of the responsibility to allow the administration to address the matter appropriately,” Ms. Castro said.

She said Mr. Recto’s extensive background in economic legislation and national planning “positions him well” to oversee day-to-day government operations and coordinate high-impact programs as executive secretary.

Sought for comment at the Senate, Mr. Recto told reporters he had not talked to the President.

“I’m surprised but work has to continue. Essentially, I think the role of the [executive secretary] is governance… You cannot do miracles. Our job is to improve governance,” Mr. Recto said.

Concerning Mr. Go’s appointment as Finance chief, Ms. Castro cited his role in “advancing investments, strengthening investor confidence, and aligning economic initiatives across agencies.”

In a statement, Mr. Go thanked the President for his “continuing trust and confidence.”
“Recognizing the challenges and opportunities ahead, I am fully committed to promoting fiscal strength and sustainable economic growth for the country,” Mr. Go said.

There is no replacement yet for Mr. Go, who held the title of special assistant to the President for investment and economic affairs.

Budget Undersecretary Rolando U. Toledo will be the officer in charge at the Department of Budget and Management (DBM).

“(Mr. Toledo’s) designation ensures uninterrupted operations as the government prepares for the rollout of next year’s budget, ongoing recovery efforts in disaster-affected regions, and the continued funding of social and economic programs,” Ms. Castro said.

The Philippine government is investigating a multibillion-peso public works scandal that Mr. Marcos exposed during his State of the Nation Address in July. Government officials and lawmakers have allegedly colluded with private contractors to receive billions of kickbacks from public works projects.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said Mr. Recto is signaling a focus on governance reforms.

“Drawing on his 20 years of experience in fiscal and policy measures, Mr. Recto’s serious pursuit of anti-corruption initiatives and higher governance standards — similar to efforts 10-15 years ago — could have positive effects on the local economy and financial markets,” he said.

Growth at 4%

Prior to the announcement of his appointment as executive secretary, Mr. Recto said the Philippine economy is likely to expand by at least 4.7% this year.

In a statement sent Monday morning, he said the economy remains “fundamentally strong,” backed by stable foundations, investment opportunities, and growth faster than the “true cost” of debt.

“By the end of 2025, the real interest rate we pay is estimated at only 3.3%, while our economy is expected to grow by 4.7% to 4.8%,” Mr. Recto said.

Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged 5% in the first nine months, falling short of the government’s 5.5-6.5% target for 2025.

The government’s sweeping corruption crackdown since August has hurt economic growth as well as consumer and investor confidence.

“We are not blind to the challenges, nor are we shaken by them. What you see today is not a leadership crisis, but a government reforming itself from within, led by a President who chose to be the whistleblower, not the apologist, of corruption,” Mr. Recto said.

He stressed that trust is the lifeblood of any economy.

“It keeps investments flowing, businesses expanding, and jobs growing. That trust is being protected, strengthened, and rebuilt every single day under the Marcos administration,” he said.

Mr. Recto, who is part of the Monetary Board, said weak inflation gives the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) more room to cut interest rates, supporting household spending and economic growth.

“Above all, we assure the Filipino people that our fiscal consolidation path is on track, and everything moving forward is on the upside,” he said, noting that the government will bring down the deficit and debt gradually.

The Marcos administration is targeting to reduce the fiscal deficit to 5.5% of GDP in 2025, with the gap projected to ease further to 3.1% by 2030.

The country’s outstanding debt stood at PHP 17.46 trillion at end-September but still remained above the PHP 17.36-trillion full-year program. — Chloe Mari A. Hufana and Aubrey Rose A. Inosante, Reporters