Peso extends losing streak to hit near three-month low vs dollar

The peso plummeted to a near three-month low on Thursday, returning to the PHP 57 level, after the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) delivered a second straight interest rate cut.

The local unit closed at PHP 57.45 per dollar, sinking by 47 centavos from its PHP 56.98 finish on Wednesday, Bankers Association of the Philippines data showed, extending its losing streak to an eighth consecutive session.

This was the peso’s worst finish in almost three months or since its PHP 57.69-a-dollar close on March 26.

The peso traded weaker than Wednesday’s close the entire day as it opened Thursday’s session at PHP 57.10 against the dollar, which was already its intraday best. Its worst showing was its closing level of PHP 57.45 versus the greenback.

Dollars exchanged rose to USD 1.83 billion on Thursday from USD 1.27 billion on Wednesday.

The peso weakened as the divergence in the policy tones of the BSP and the US Federal Reserve raised concerns over prospects of a narrowing interest rate differential, a trader said in a phone interview.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message that the BSP’s latest rate cut narrowed its interest rate differential with the US central bank to 75 basis points (bps), “the narrowest ever and seen since the latter part of 2023.”

On Thursday, the BSP’s policy-setting Monetary Board reduced the target reverse repurchase rate by 25 bps to 5.25%, as expected by 15 out of 16 analysts in a BusinessWorld poll last week.

The central bank has now slashed rates by a total of 50 bps this year following a similar cut in April. This brought total reductions since August 2024 to 125 bps.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said they could deliver one more 25-bp cut this year, depending on the data.

The central bank chief also said on Thursday that the rate differential is just one of many factors that affects the peso-dollar exchange rate.

“We used to worry about 100 bps between our policy rate and the Fed policy rate. We worry a little bit about that still, but it’s now more about relative [hawkishness and] dovishness,” Mr. Remolona said.

He said the peso’s recent weakness was is mainly a product of global risk aversion due to developments overseas, adding that they “won’t have enough reserves” to heavily intervene in the market just to stem the currency’s fall.

Meanwhile, the Fed on Wednesday kept its benchmark overnight rate steady at the 4.25%-4.5% range, with policymakers signaling two cuts this year. However, Federal Chair Jerome H. Powell cautioned against putting too much weight on that view, and said he expects “meaningful” inflation ahead as consumers pay more for goods due to the Trump administration’s planned import tariffs, Reuters reported.

“No one holds these… rate paths with a great deal of conviction, and everyone would agree that they’re all going to be data-dependent,” Mr. Powell said in a press conference after the end of a two-day US central bank meeting where policymakers slowed their overall outlook for rate cuts in response to a more challenging outlook of weaker economic growth, rising joblessness, and faster price increases.

If not for tariffs, Mr. Powell said, rate cuts might actually be in order, given that recent inflation readings have been favorably low.

But a cost shock is coming, he insisted, with producers, manufacturers and retailers still involved in a complicated struggle over who will pay the levies imposed so far, and President Donald J. Trump still contemplating an aggressive set of import duties that could go into effect early next month.

The trader and Mr. Ricafort added that the dollar’s recent strength and the increase in oil prices due to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran also continued to put pressure on the peso.

The dollar firmed on Thursday, buoyed by safe-haven demand due to the looming threat of a broader conflict in the Middle East and possible US involvement, Reuters reported.

After a muted start in Asia hours, the dollar advanced across the board, weighing heavily on risk sensitive currencies after a report said US officials are preparing for the possibility of a strike on Iran in the coming days.

Rapidly rising geopolitical tensions have led to the dollar swiftly reclaiming its safe-haven status, making inroads against the yen, euro and the Swiss franc.

Iran and Israel traded further air attacks on Thursday, with the conflict entering its seventh day. Concerns over potential US involvement have also grown, as Mr. Trump kept the world guessing about whether the United States will join Israel’s bombardment of Iranian nuclear sites.

The conflict has heightened fears of broader regional instability, compounded by the spillover effects of the Gaza war.

Some analysts said investors were looking to cover their short-dollar positions.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six other units, rose 0.11% to 99 and was set for about a 0.9% gain for the week, its strongest weekly performance since late January.

For Wednesday, the trader expects the peso to move between PHP 57.30 and PHP 57.65 per dollar, while Mr. Ricafort expects it to range from PHP 57.35 to PHP 57.55. — AMCS with Reuters

Government ready to extend fuel subsidies

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. on Wednesday said that fuel subsidies may be given to stakeholders that are most vulnerable to a spike in oil prices amid an escalating conflict in the Middle East.

“We are starting already with the assumption that oil prices will in fact go up, and I cannot see how [they] will not because the Strait of Hormuz will then be blocked if it escalates,” Mr. Marcos told reporters during an inspection of a burned-down elementary school in Quezon City, according to a transcript from his office. “The prices will certainly be affected.”

He noted that the Philippines had extended fuel subsidies during the coronavirus pandemic and may need to do so again if tensions between Middle Eastern powers trigger a sharp rise in oil prices.

“We will have to do the same for those who are severely affected —stakeholders — by any instability in the price of oil. Yes, it’s a serious problem,” he added.

The Department of Energy (DoE) earlier said the government is ready to roll out fuel subsidies to transport operators and farmers to contain the broader impact of high fuel costs on the prices of basic goods and services.

Oil prices extended their climb on Wednesday, with Brent crude futures up 0.3% to USD 76.67 per barrel, while US crude rose 0.43% to USD 75.16 a barrel, Reuters reported. Both had jumped more than 4% in the previous session.

Oil firms in the Philippines are mandated to maintain a minimum 30-day fuel inventory to help stabilize local supply. Should global crude prices breach the USD 80 per barrel threshold, fuel subsidies for public transport drivers and fisherfolk will be automatically triggered.

Reinielle Matt M. Erece, an economist at Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc., said a possible spike in oil prices is a concern as it may stoke inflation.

“If oil prices increase significantly, these effects may take some time to be felt, but they will be felt in a few months. Apart from the war causing supply disruptions, speculation on oil can also be a cause of price increases which may worsen oil inflation,” he said in a Viber message.

Mr. Erece said short-term government interventions would temper the impact of high oil prices on consumers as well as control inflation.

Aside from elevated oil prices, the weaker peso may also cause an uptick in inflation.

The peso weakened for a seventh straight session on Wednesday, closing at PHP 56.98 versus the dollar, dropping by 28 centavos from Tuesday’s finish of PHP 56.70. This was the local unit’s weakest finish in over two months or since it closed at PHP 57.08 on April 14.

Year to date, the peso is still up by 1.51% from its end-2024 close of PHP 57.845.

“Both factors would lead to some pickup in inflation and could potentially reduce future Fed and BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) rate cuts. If there is an escalation of the Israel-Iran war, that could further lead to higher global oil prices and inflation,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said.

EV adoption

Meanwhile, the government should accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles (EV), fast-track renewable energy development and reduce reliance on imported oil amid the Middle East conflict, analysts said.

“Periodic crises in the Middle East should compel government to expedite the transition to electric or hybrid vehicles in order to protect the public from the acute but severe impact of regional tensions,” Terry L. Ridon, convenor of think tank InfraWatch PH, said in a Viber message.

He added that the crisis should prompt the power sector to build generation facilities that are not dependent on imported fossil fuels sources.

“The RE (renewable energy) sector should be fully supported with more incentives, more investments and more government support,” he said.

Robert Dan J. Roces, an economist at SM Investments Corp., said recent events “highlight the Philippines’ vulnerability to oil price shocks and should serve as a wake-up call to accelerate energy diversification.”

“While fuel subsidies offer short-term relief, we have to strive for long-term resilience, such as investments in renewables, LNG (liquefied natural gas) infrastructure, and energy efficiency, while modernizing transport and power systems to reduce dependence on imported oil,” he said in a Viber message.

Mr. Roces said well-targeted subsidies can help ease the impact of high oil prices.

“This renewed crisis is a reminder: energy security is not just an economic issue — it’s a strategic imperative,” he said.

Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at professional service firm Reyes Tacandong & Co., said that the Middle East crisis is a clear reminder that the country must reduce its reliance on imported oil.

“While fuel subsidies help in the short term, we need to fast-track renewable energy, improve public transport, and build energy resilience,” he said in a Viber message.

Based on the two-day trading of the Mean of Platts Singapore, pump prices are expected to rise next week. Diesel is projected to go up by PHP 3.40 to PHP 3.60 per liter; and gasoline by PHP 2.30 to P2.50 per liter, an industry player said.

“Growing uncertainty around the Iran-Israel hostilities and concerns the conflict may intensify and disrupt supply, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, have further pushed up the prices of crude oil and refined fuel products,” Jetti Petroleum, Inc. President Leo P. Bellas said in a Viber message.

Mr. Bellas said that the company has selected stations that have discount lanes for public utility vehicles and transportation network vehicle service.

“The current price position of most Jetti stations in various trading areas is already substantially discounted. But we will continue to monitor the market situation and the company’s capability if it can still provide further discounts,” he said.

On Tuesday, oil companies implemented a hike of P1.80 per liter for both gasoline and diesel, and P1.50 per liter for kerosene.

The latest price hikes bring the year-to-date adjustments to P6.90 per liter for gasoline and P6.65 per liter for diesel. Kerosene prices, meanwhile, have declined by P0.75 per liter since January. — Chloe Mari A. Hufana and Sheldeen Joy Talavera, Reporters

Vehicle sales dip in May

Philippine automotive sales slipped by 1.2% in May to 39,775, amid a double-digit drop in sales of passenger cars, an industry report showed.

A joint report by the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. (CAMPI) and the Truck Manufacturers Association (TMA) showed new vehicle sales fell to 39,775 units in May from 40,271 units in the same month a year ago.

Month on month, car sales jumped by 18.4% from 33,580 units sold in April.

In May, passenger car sales plunged by 28% to 7,895 from 10,967 units sold in the same month in 2024. Month on month, sales went up by 21.5% from 6,498 units sold in April.

Meanwhile, sales of commercial vehicles, which accounted for 80.15% of May sales, rose by 8.8% to 31,880 from 29,304 units a year ago. Month on month, sales grew 17.7% from 27,082 units in April.

Broken down, light commercial vehicle sales went up by 9.7% year on year to 23,671 units in May, while sales of Asian utility vehicles (AUV) increased by 5.8% to 7,161.

Sales of light-duty trucks and buses went up by 19.2% to 633 units, while sales of large trucks surged 101.6% to 127. Medium truck sales dropped 22% to 288 units in May.

“Car sales in May were a bit softer compared with last year, mostly because passenger car demand slowed down,” said Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message.

“On the flip side, commercial vehicles held up well, and electric vehicles (EV) are gaining more traction. All in all, the market is still growing steadily, just with some mixed signals last month,” he added.

For the January-to-May period, new vehicle sales increased by 1.7% to 190,429 units from 187,191 units a year ago despite a slump in passenger car sales.

“Vehicle sales have been weighed down recently by reduced consumer and business sentiment as the trade war is expected to reduce global trade, investments, employment, and the world economy,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC) Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

In the first five months, passenger car sales declined by 21.4% to 38,725 from 49,247 in the same period last year.

On the other hand, commercial vehicle sales jumped by 10% to 151,704 units in the January-to-May period from 137,944 a year ago.

“We are encouraged by the industry’s sustained growth, especially with commercial vehicles driving overall performance,” CAMPI President Rommel R. Gutierrez said in a statement on Wednesday.

In May, EV sales continued to grow, now accounting for 9.08% of the industry. EV sales hit 3,613 units in May, 139.4% up from 1,509 units sold in April.

In the first five months, EV sales reached 10,433 units, accounting for 5.48% of the market.

This year, CAMPI expects EV sales to reach 10% of total car sales.

Toyota Motor Philippines Corp. remained the market leader, with sales of 91,652 units in the January-to-May period, up 6.3% from the 86,257 units a year ago. It accounted for 48.13% of the market.

Mitsubishi Motors Philippines Corp. ranked second with a market share of 19.23% after posting a 4.2% increase in sales to 36,613 units.

In third spot was Nissan Philippines, Inc., even as sales dropped by 14.5% to 9,879. It had a market share of 5.19%.

Rounding out the top five were Suzuki Phils., Inc., which saw an 11.8% increase in sales to 8,913 units, and Ford Motor Co. Phils., Inc., which saw a 30.1% decline to 8,559 units.

For EVs, Toyota sold 7,012 hybrid electric vehicles in the first five months of the year, while Tesla Motors Philippines sold 1,001 units of battery electric vehicles.

“With strong momentum heading into the second half of the year, CAMPI remains confident in the automotive industry’s positive performance. Continued collaboration between government and industry stakeholders will be key to sustaining this growth,” Mr. Gutierrez said.

For this year, CAMPI has set a sales target of 500,000 units. Last year, the industry sold 467,252 units. — Justine Irish D. Tabile, Reporter

Philippine shares retreat before BSP policy meeting

Philippine shares dropped anew on Wednesday as the conflict between Iran and Israel continued and as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) policy meeting on Thursday, where it is expected to deliver a second straight rate cut.

The main Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) went down by 0.49% or 31.76 points to close at 6,337.43, while the broader all shares index declined by 0.29% or 11.07 points to 3,772.79.

“Philippine stocks fell as the Israel-Iran conflict entered its fifth day and US retail sales dropped more than expected, raising concerns about consumer spending,” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message.

“Locals remained on the sidelines as they await the outcome of the latest meeting of the BSP, with many forecasting a rate cut, hoping to ease fears of further conflict escalation in the Middle East,” he added.

A BusinessWorld poll showed that 15 out of 16 analysts expect the Monetary Board to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points (bp) to 5.25% at Thursday’s review from the current 5.5%.

The BSP in April resumed its easing cycle with a 25-bp reduction following a surprise pause in February. It has now slashed borrowing costs by a total of 100 bps since it started cutting rates in August last year.

Iran and Israel launched new missile strikes at each other on Wednesday morning, forcing thousands of people to flee major cities, despite the call of United States President Donald J. Trump for Iran’s unconditional surrender.

“The local market pulled back as investors took a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision,” Philstocks Financial Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

The Fed was set to announce its policy decision overnight at the close of its two-day meeting. It is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, but markets are waiting for fresh clues on the US central bank’s easing path.

Almost all sectoral indices closed lower on Wednesday. Financials sank by 1.7% or 40.05 points to 2,304.06; mining and oil declined by 1.54% or 155.44 points to 9,899.69; holding firms went down by 0.43% or 23.61 points to 5,415.15; services retreated by 0.23% or 5.30 points to 2,219.52; and property decreased by 0.04% or 1.05 points to 2,246.02.

Meanwhile, industrials rose by 0.44% or 40.64 points to 9,150.28.

“Manila Electric Co. was the day’s index leader, climbing 1.84% to PHP 553.50. Bloomberry Resorts Corp. was the main index laggard, falling 4.76% to PHP 5.60,” Mr. Tantiangco said.

Value turnover declined to PHP 5.28 billion on Wednesday with 2.91 billion shares traded from PHP 5.94 billion with 2.11 billion issues exchanged on Tuesday.

Advancers edged out decliners, 96 versus 95, while 52 names were unchanged.

Net foreign selling increased to PHP 254.69 million on Wednesday from PHP 15.05 million on Tuesday. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

Marcos orders oil contingencies

Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. has ordered agencies to prepare for potential spikes in global oil prices amid worsening tensions in the Middle East, a major oil-producing region, the presidential palace said on Tuesday.

Beyond fuel subsidies, the government is considering additional aid packages should prices surge, Palace Press Officer Clarissa A. Castro told a news briefing.

She said Mr. Marcos has directed the Department of Energy (DoE) to talk to oil companies to ensure adequate stockpiles and stagger fuel price adjustments to soften the impact on consumers.

While the war with Israel has yet to hit Iran’s crude oil production and export facilities, Brent futures have risen almost 6% due to heightened risks since the close on June 12 to trade around USD 73.58 a barrel in Asia on Tuesday, Reuters reported.

Motorists faced another round of fuel price hikes this week, as oil companies announced increases on Monday, marking the fifth consecutive week of gains for gasoline, the third for diesel, and the second for kerosene.

The DoE’s Oil Industry Management Bureau earlier attributed the upward trend to several global factors, including stronger market sentiment from improving US-China trade relations, stalled nuclear talks between the US and Iran, and a projected surge in global oil demand over the next 25 years.

According to the Palace, the Department of Agriculture (DA) and the Department of Transportation would also be alerted to roll out the necessary support programs should tensions in the Middle East drive up fuel prices.

Jetti Petroleum, Inc. President Leo P. Bellas said they are willing to implement whatever directive the government gives.

“We are monitoring the events due to possible supply concerns,” he said in a Viber chat. “For price increases, we are willing to implement whatever will be required by the government to downstream oil industry players.”

He noted the company maintains “healthy product inventories” at its terminals, but any significant spike in local demand would affect supply and other oil companies.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the possible spike in oil prices may have an impact on inflation.

“[There could be a] slight pickup in inflation, with global crude oil prices higher by about +USD 8 since June 13, 2025, [when] Israel-Iran attacks started,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

“[It] could also lead to some increase in the country’s trade deficit, prices of imports, and overall trade balance,” he added.

Inflation cooled to an over five-year low of 1.3% in May, as utility costs rose at a slower pace. This brought the five-month average to 1.9%, slightly below the central bank’s 2-4% target band.

An uptick in oil prices could also reduce consumers’ disposable income, Mr. Ricafort said.

Meanwhile, Management Association of the Philippines (MAP) President Alfredo S. Panlilio said the business community is concerned about the Iran-Israel conflict.

“Of course, it’s always a concern. Any war is a concern,” he told reporters on the sidelines of the MAP x KPMG Technology Summit on Tuesday.

“We’re hoping that there’s a resolution [to] that issue before it really impacts everybody globally,” he added.

Meanwhile, the Philippine government is closely monitoring possible fertilizer supply disruptions, as about 66% of the Philippines’ fertilizer imports are nitrogen-based, mostly sourced from Qatar.

Ms. Castro said Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. assured that alternative suppliers, including those in nearby countries such as Brunei, are being considered to ensure enough fertilizer supply for farmers.

The DA currently sees no long-term threat to fertilizer availability, provided that sea lanes in the region remain open, especially the Strait of Hormuz, a key global chokepoint located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. — Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter

Philippines to implement crypto-asset framework

The Philippines will implement a crypto-asset framework as part of its efforts to combat cross-border tax evasion and illicit financial flows, the Department of Finance (DoF) said.

In a statement on Tuesday, the DoF said it is committed to adopting the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) by 2028.

The framework sets the guidelines for the reporting and automatic exchange of information associated with crypto-assets.

“We need faster and stronger systems for collaboration if we are to beat tax evasion and illicit transactions. This is a timely commitment as digital currency becomes one of the preferred means for transactions,” Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said in a statement.

“The government must ensure that crypto-asset users are paying their fair share of taxes and that no illicit financial activity goes unpunished.”

The Philippines made the commitment during the 8^th Asia Initiative Meeting in Male, Maldives. It joined 67 other jurisdictions that have already vowed to implement the CARF by 2027 or 2028. Other Asian countries that have made the commitment include Japan, South Korea and Singapore.

The CARF institutionalizes the framework for the reporting and automatic exchange of information in relation to crypto-assets between tax authorities for the purpose of tax compliance.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has released guidelines on crypto-asset service providers, which require them to apply for a license.

The SEC said an estimated USD 40 billion worth of cryptocurrency value was received by the Philippines from July 2023 to June 2024, citing data from the 2024 Geography of Crypto Report of Chainalysis.

In February, the Financial Action Task Force removed the Philippines from its list of jurisdictions under increased monitoring for “dirty money” after over three years or since June 2021.

The European Commission also recently removed the Philippines from its list of high-risk jurisdictions.

Despite the delisting, Xiao Chen, associate director at Moody’s, has said the Philippines should continue to monitor risks in sectors such as cryptocurrency.

“Continued vigilance will be essential, particularly in sectors such as online gaming and cryptocurrency, to ensure that residual risks are effectively managed,” he said. — A.R.A.Inosante

Philippine stocks eke out gains, track Wall Street’s rise

Philippine stocks inched higher on Tuesday amid positive spillovers from Wall Street, although the market remained cautious due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

The bellwether Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) rose by 0.16% or 10.61 points to end at 6,369.19, while the broader all shares index went up by 0.4% or 15.41 points to 3,783.86.

“The local market bounced with positive cues from Wall Street helping in the climb. Investors also digested the Philippines’ overseas Filipinos’ cash remittance data for April, which posted a 4% growth,” Philstocks Financial Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message. “Gains were tempered, however, as concerns over the Israel-Iran conflict and their economic repercussions lingered.”

“Philippine and US stocks rebounded as hopes grew that the Israel-Iran conflict would stay contained, easing oil price concerns,” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message.

Wall Street closed higher on Monday on hopes that the Middle East conflict would not escalate further. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.75% or 317.30 points to 42,515.09; the S&P 500 improved by 0.94% or 56.14 points to 6,033.11; and the Nasdaq Composite gained by 1.52% or 294.38 points to 19,701.21.

US President Donald J. Trump said he wanted a “real end” to the nuclear problem with Iran and indicated he may send senior American officials to meet with the Islamic Republic as the Israel-Iran air war raged for a fifth straight day, Reuters reported.

Washington has said Mr. Trump was still aiming for a nuclear deal with Iran, even as the military confrontation unfolds.

World leaders meeting at the Group of Seven summit called for a de-escalation of the worst-ever conflict between the regional foes, saying Iran was a source of instability and must never have a nuclear weapon while affirming Israel’s right to defend itself.

Back home, almost all sectoral indices closed higher on Tuesday. Industrials rose by 1.18% or 106.35 points to 9,109.64; property went up by 0.3% or 6.74 points to 2,247.07; holding firms climbed by 0.27% or 15.10 points to 5,438.76; services increased by 0.21% or 4.78 points to 2,224.82; and mining and oil gained 0.14% or 14.29 points to end at 10,055.13.

Meanwhile, financials slipped by 0.24% or 5.71 points to 2,344.11.

“China Banking Corp. was the top index gainer, climbing 3.37% to PHP 67.45. Bloomberry Resorts Corp. was at the bottom, falling 2.33% to PHP 5.88,” Mr. Tantiangco said.

Value turnover declined to PHP 5.94 billion on Tuesday with 2.11 billion issues traded from the PHP 8.82 billion with 1.07 billion shares exchanged on Monday.

Advancers bested decliners, 124 versus 82, while 42 names were unchanged.

Net foreign selling declined to PHP 15.05 million on Tuesday from PHP 2.74 billion on Monday. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave with Reuters

Cash remittances jump 4% in April

Money sent home by overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) jumped by an annual 4% in April, the fastest pace in 28 months, data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.

Cash remittances from migrant Filipinos coursed through banks rose by 4% to USD 2.66 billion in April from USD 2.56 billion in the same month a year ago.

The 4% annual growth in April was the fastest since the 5.8% seen in December 2022.

MONEY SENT HOME by overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) jumped by an annual 4% in April, the fastest pace in 28 months, data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.

Cash remittances from migrant Filipinos coursed through banks rose by 4% to $2.66 billion in April from $2.56 billion in the same month a year ago.

The 4% annual growth in April was the fastest since the 5.8% seen in December 2022.

However, the amount of cash remittances in April was the lowest in nearly a year or since May 2024 when remittances stood at USD 2.58 billion.

Month on month, remittances declined by 5.1% from USD 2.81 billion in March.

In April, cash remittances from land-based workers rose by 4% to USD 2.08 billion from USD 2 billion in the same month last year.

Sea-based migrant workers sent home USD 580 million, 3.8% up from the USD 560 million a year ago.

Reinielle Matt M. Erece, an economist at Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc. said the cash remittances posted a “strong” growth mostly due to “seasonal factors, as this month usually posts one of the fastest during the summer months.”

“The year-on-year increase shows underlying strength in remittance flows, driven by stable overseas employment, particularly in the US, Middle East, and parts of Asia,” John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies said in a Viber message.

Personal remittances, which include inflows in kind, rose by 4.1% to USD 2.97 billion in April from USD 2.86 billion a year ago.

Personal remittances from workers with contracts of a year or more increased by 3.9% to USD 2.25 billion, while those with contracts of less than a year jumped by 4.1% to USD 650 million.

Four months

In the first four months of 2025, cash remittances went up by 3% to USD 11.11 billion annually from USD 10.78 billion a year ago.

Cash remittances sent by land-based workers jumped by 3.4% to USD 8.82 billion as of end-April, while sea-based workers’ remittances went up 1.7% to USD 2.29 billion.

“Higher growth of remittances from the United States, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) drove the overall increase in remittances during January-April 2025,” the BSP said.

The US remained the top source of remittances in April, accounting for 40.4% of the total.

This was followed by Singapore (7.3%), Saudi Arabia (6.3%), Japan (5%), the United Kingdom (4.5%), the UAE (4.5%), Canada (3.2%), Qatar (2.9%), Taiwan (2.7%) and Hong Kong (2.7%).

Personal remittances increased by 3% to USD 12.37 billion during the January-to-April period, from USD 12.01 billion in the same period last year.

“We may continue to see stronger remittance inflows from OFWs due to the relative strength of the peso. They may be prompted to send more to maintain the same peso value they used to send,” Mr. Erece said.

The peso closed at PHP 55.84 a dollar at the end of April, appreciating by PHP 1.37 from the PHP 57.21 finish at end-March.

Mr. Rivera said remittance growth is likely to remain steady on the back of demand for Filipino workers overseas, particularly in the healthcare, logistics, and domestic services.

“Global uncertainties such as inflation in host countries, geopolitical tensions, and policy shifts like taxes on remittances in major markets (e.g., the US) are downside risks to monitor,” Mr. Rivera said.

In the US, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act proposes a 3.5% tax on remittances sent abroad by foreign workers, including green card holders and temporary visa workers.

This is expected to have serious implications for countries that heavily rely on remittances, such as the Philippines, India, Mexico and China.

The BSP forecasts 2.8% growth in cash remittances to an estimated USD 35.5 billion this year.

Next year, cash remittances are projected to grow by 3% to USD 36.5 billion. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

DoF renews push for general tax amnesty bill

The Department of Finance (DoF) will renew its push for the passage of a general tax amnesty (GTA) bill in the incoming 20^th Congress.

Finance Undersecretary Maria Luwalhati C. Dorotan-Tiuseco said the department is interested in pushing for a new general tax amnesty bill after it failed to secure Congress’ approval.

“[The bill] will address the issues on the veto,” Ms. Tiuseco said in a Viber message on June 13.

In 2019, then-President Rodrigo R. Duterte vetoed the provisions on the general tax amnesty under the Republic Act (RA) No. 11213 but retained the provisions for estate tax amnesty.

The tax amnesty program looked to impose an amnesty charge equivalent to a portion of the taxpayers’ outstanding unpaid taxes in exchange for immunity from civil, criminal, and administrative penalties.

For his part, Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) Commissioner Romeo D. Lumagui, Jr. said the discussions on a general tax amnesty are in the early stages.

“It’s not like it’s being seriously discussed to the point of saying it will happen this year. But it’s being talked about — whether it will happen or not — it’s still kind of in a very, very early stage of discussion,” he said.

In his veto message at that time, Mr. Duterte urged Congress to pass another bill on the general tax amnesty that includes the “lifting of bank secrecy for fraud cases, the inclusion of automatic exchange of information, and safeguard to ensure that asset or net worth declarations are truthful.”

“[Mr. Duterte] noted that without the lifting of the Bank Secrecy Law, the GTA may be abused by taxpayers declaring untruthful asset or net worth without the BIR being able to double check the taxpayers’ representations,” Eleanor L. Roque, a tax principal at P&A Grant Thornton, said in an e-mail to BusinessWorld.

The Bank Secrecy Law or the Republic Act No. 1405 protects the confidentiality of bank deposits in the Philippines. This prevents disclosure or inquiry of deposits in banking institutions.

Ms. Roque said a general tax amnesty could generate much-needed revenue for the government.

“Generally, a GTA is crucial when major tax laws are introduced to give the taxpayers a clean slate. That was the reason why RA 11213 was intended to be a companion law to the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) law,” she said.

Republic Act No. 10963 or TRAIN, which took effect in 2018, cut personal income tax while increasing the rates on some goods and services.

“Considering the BIR’s intensified efforts in tax audits, some taxpayers may wish to avail the GTA to close ongoing assessments. However, the take-up of the GTA may depend on whether the amnesty amount is reasonable compared to the taxpayers’ deficiency tax exposure and cost of litigation,” Ms. Roque said.

The tax expert also said that the DoF should ensure the ease of availing the general tax amnesty in terms of documentary requirements and reasonable amount.

“It should also provide for a definite time period for the BIR to issue the confirmation of entitlement for the benefits of availing the tax amnesty,” she said. – Aubrey Rose A. Inosante, Reporter

PSE index drops on escalating Iran-Israel conflict

Philippine shares declined on Monday as investor sentiment was soured by the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) dropped by 0.57% or 37.01 points to close at 6,358.58, while the broader all shares index fell by 0.44% or 16.86 points to 3,768.45.

“The local market declined by the week’s start as investors dealt with the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran and its possible economic repercussions. So far, the conflict has caused oil prices to surge, in turn posing inflationary risks to the local economy,” Philstocks Financial Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

“The peso’s depreciation also weighed on the local bourse,” Mr. Tantiangco said.

Iranian missiles struck Israel’s Tel Aviv and the port city of Haifa before dawn on Monday, killing at least eight people and destroying homes, prompting Israel’s defense minister to warn that Tehran residents would “pay the price and soon,” Reuters reported.

The dangers of further escalation loomed over a meeting of the Group of Seven leaders in Canada, with US President Donald J. Trump expressing hope on Sunday that a deal could be done but no sign of the fighting abating on a fourth day of war.

Israel began the assault with a surprise attack on Friday that wiped out the top echelon of Iran’s military command and damaged its nuclear sites, and says the campaign will escalate in the coming days.

Iran has vowed to “open the gates of hell” in retaliation.

Brent crude futures were up 0.5% in Asian trade on Monday, having surged late last week.

“Gains were capped by renewed trade uncertainty after President Donald J. Trump signaled that his July 8 tariff deadline could be extended, but warned that it might not be needed if talks wrap up early… Also during trading, Israel launched another missile attack across the city of Tehran, as tensions escalated once again between the two nations,” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message.

Sectoral indices were mixed on Monday. Holding firms declined by 1.19% or 65.50 points to 5,423.66; property went down by 1.18% or 26.92 points to 2,240.33; and financials retreated by 0.5% or 11.98 points to 2,349.82.

Meanwhile, mining and oil went up by 1.57% or 155.89 points to 10,040.84; industrials increased by 0.22% or 20.30 points to 9,003.29; and services rose by 0.08% or 1.93 points to 2,220.04.

“Universal Robina Corp. was the top index gainer, climbing 2.3% to PHP 84.55. Alliance Global Group, Inc. was at the bottom, falling 4.27% to PHP 9.20,” Mr. Tantiangco said.

Value turnover dropped to PHP 8.82 billion on Monday with 1.07 billion shares traded from the PHP 9.87 billion with 1.16 billion issues exchanged on Friday.

Decliners outnumbered advancers, 110 versus 88, while 50 names were unchanged.

Net foreign selling stood at PHP 2.74 billion on Monday, a reversal of the PHP 648.82 million in net buying recorded on Friday. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave with Reuters

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