Gold falls as CPI data dampens talk of oversized US rate cut

Gold prices fell on Wednesday as the dollar and Treasury yields firmed after US inflation data prompted investors to scale back expectations of an oversized rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week.

Spot gold was down 0.1% at USD 2,513.19 per ounce at 1:46 p.m. ET (1746 GMT).

US gold futures settled mostly unchanged at USD 2,542.40.

US consumer prices rose only slightly in August, but underlying inflation showed some stickiness, which could dissuade the Fed from delivering a half-point interest rate cut next week.

“Inflation is still here. The consumer is still feeling it. If they do a half, it signals they’re throwing in the towel here… a quarter point is something that they’re almost forced into doing here at this point,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Markets are currently pricing in an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point US rate cut, compared to 71% before the data, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

The Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the three remaining policy meetings in 2024, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll that found only nine out of 101 expected a half-percentage-point cut next week.

“The uptick in core CPI has more or less cemented at 25 bps cut next week … A new all-time high (for gold prices) may have to wait just a little longer,” said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader.

Markets will now look towards the US producer price index reading and initial jobless claims due on Thursday.

Among other metals, spot silver was up 0.8% at USD 28.60 per ounce, platinum rose 1.9% to USD 955.73 and palladium firmed 4.8% to USD 1,011.09.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow should consider limiting exports of uranium, titanium and nickel in retaliation against the West.

Palladium prices are rising due to changes in export regulations, particularly in Russia, said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Mark Potter, Alan Barona and Janane Venkatraman)

Strong open eyed after US inflation see-saw

The see-saw nature of US market reactions to the latest US inflation figures on Wednesday highlighted investors’ general skittishness right now, as they try to predict whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points next week.

At the market close, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had posted healthy gains and chalked up their third daily rise, the VIX ‘fear index’ had fallen for a third day, and Treasury yields bounced back from new cycle lows to end higher across the curve.

There was something for everyone in the CPI data, which is perhaps why the bond market swung so much. Core inflation rose a hotter-than-expected 0.3% while the annual headline rate fell to 2.5%, the lowest since February 2021.

It may be a similar picture in Asia on Thursday, although the market open will probably be strong as investors take the baton from Wall Street. Japanese futures point to the Nikkei opening around 1.5% higher.

The yen on Wednesday surged to its strongest level against the dollar this year after Bank of Japan board member Junko Nakagawa said the central bank would raise rates again if inflation moved in line with policymakers’ forecasts.

That echoed recent remarks from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, so nothing new, and the dollar ultimately clawed back nearly all its losses. But the yen’s spike perhaps indicates how sensitive the market is to the prospect of the US-Japanese interest rate gap narrowing.

The BOJ is only expected to raise rates by 25 basis points by the end of next year. But signals that the BOJ is still prepared to tighten policy amid bursts of global market volatility and as other central banks cut rates are yen-supportive right now.

In that context, Japan’s wholesale price inflation for August will be watched closely on Thursday. The annual rate of inflation is expected to have slowed to 2.8% from 3.0% in July, with the monthly rate evaporating to 0.0% from 0.3%.

The wholesale price index in July hit a record high for the eighth straight month.

The Asian economic calendar’s other main point of focus on Thursday is Indian inflation. Economists polled by Reuters expect consumer price inflation to essentially hold steady at a five-year low of 3.5% in August.

That would mark the second month in a row that annual inflation has held below the Reserve Bank of India’s 4.0% medium-term target, but the weak rupee will ensure policymakers don’t get complacent.

A separate Reuters poll showed inflation averaging 4.2% this quarter, accelerating to 4.5%-4.7% in the coming quarters and back above the central bank’s target. Money markets are only pricing in one quarter-point rate cut from the RBI this year.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Thursday:
– Japan wholesale inflation (August)

– India CPI inflation (August)

– India industrial production (July)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Bill Berkrot)

Asian stocks shaky ahead of US presidential debate; oil at 3-year lows

SINGAPORE – Asian stocks wobbled on Wednesday as investors gear up for US inflation data and an eagerly awaited US presidential debate, while oil prices loitered around three-year lows on concerns over a weak demand outlook.

Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump will meet in their first and perhaps only debate, a clash that could prove pivotal in their battle for the White House.

Harris’ late entry in the presidential race after President Joe Biden’s withdrawal in July tightened the race, prompting a reversal of trades that were put in place on expectations of a second Trump presidency.

While the debate, due to start at 0100 GMT, is unlikely to sway near-term monetary policy, investors will keep an eye on whether either candidate talks about fiscal policies and plans for the economy.

That has left investors skittish in Asian hours, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan 0.08% lower. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1% in early trading.

“The path to 270 electoral college votes is shaping up to be a nail-biter,” said Elias Haddad, senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, referring to the number of electoral college votes needed to win the US Presidential election.

“If Trump is the clear winner of the debate, we expect a slightly stronger USD and higher Treasury yields,” Haddad said, noting fiscal and trade policies under a Trump presidency are inflationary and could force the Fed to keep rates restrictive for longer.

“If Harris is the clear winner of the debate, we expect uneven reaction in USD and Treasuries. Fiscal and trade policies under a Harris presidency are less likely to complicate the Fed’s price stability mandate than under a Trump administration.”

Investor focus will then switch to US Labor Department’s consumer price index report for policy clues although the Federal Reserve has made it clear employment has taken on a greater focus than inflation.

The headline CPI is expected to have risen 0.2% on a month-on-month basis in August, according to a Reuters poll, unchanged from the previous month.

While the Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates next week, the size of the rate cut is still up for debate, especially after a mixed labor report on Friday failed to provide clarity on which way the central bank could go.

Markets are currently pricing in 66% chance of the US central bank cutting rates by 25 basis points, while 34% chance is ascribed for a 50 bps cut when the Fed delivers its decision on Sept. 18, CME FedWatch tool showed.

The dollar remained defensive in early trading, with the yen strengthening to 142.125 per dollar, not far from the one-month high of 141.75 touched last week.

That left the dollar index, which measures the US currency against six peers, at 101.65.

In commodities, oil prices stabilized a bit but still hovered near their lowest in three years after OPEC+ revised down its demand forecast for this year and 2025.

Brent crude futures were last 0.5% higher at USD 69.54 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.6% to USD 66.16 a barrel.

(Reporting by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

US yields stable ahead of US presidential debate, inflation data

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields were roughly unchanged on Tuesday ahead of a US presidential candidates’ debate and before Wednesday’s release of inflation data, which could fuel speculation on the size of the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut.

Republican US presidential candidate Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris will meet in their first and perhaps only debate later on Tuesday, in a clash that could prove pivotal in their battle for the White House.

The debate will likely refocus the bond market on the election and the policy implications of the candidates, BMO Capital Markets Rates Strategists Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman said in a note, adding this could lead to higher yields.

“The presumption of upward pressure on yields is a function of the fact that in either case (Harris or Trump), the next President will continue to allow deficit spending that requires funding in the Treasury market,” they wrote.

“Supply isn’t the largest influence in the US rates market, but it’s certainly a relevant one as ‘the deficit hawk’ in Washington DC has become an endangered species – if not completely extinct.”

Harris’ late entry in the presidential race after President Joe Biden’s withdrawal in July tightened the race, prompting a reversal of bond trades that were put in place on expectations of a second Trump presidency, which had led to higher US Treasury yields on expectations of higher inflation and wider budget deficits under Trump.

However, Wednesday’s consumer price data could outweigh any short-term reaction to the debate, with an acceleration in the pace of disinflation in the economy potentially strengthening the case for a 50 basis point cut by the US central bank at its Sept. 17-18 meeting.

Rates traders on Tuesday were assigning a 73% probability to a 25 basis point cut, up from 62% a week earlier and from 70% on Monday, CME Group data showed.

“If inflation comes pretty meager … that would make the Fed more open to a 50 basis point cut, but if it comes hotter than expected, 25 basis points is an easier choice,” said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.

Benchmark 10-year yields were last at 3.685%, slightly lower than on Monday. Two-year yields stood at 3.643%, about two basis points lower.

Later on Tuesday, the Treasury will sell USD 58 billion in three-year notes. This will be followed by sales of 10-year notes and 30-year bonds on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia)

US dollar falls ahead of inflation data, presidential debate

NEW YORK/MILAN – The dollar slid against major currencies on Tuesday, consolidating Monday’s gains ahead of key inflation data and a widely anticipated US presidential debate, even though both their outcomes are unlikely to affect overall monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates next week for the first time in more than four years. What is still up for debate is the size of the rate cut, with the fed funds futures market pricing in a 73% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the Sept. 17-18 policy meeting and a 27% probability the Fed might do 50 bps, according to LSEG calculations..

The odds on the 50-bp cut rose as high as 50% last Friday after a mixed US labor report.

“Markets are in a bit of a holding pattern ahead of CPI (consumer price index) tomorrow, but there’s a bit of crackle in the air today from election jitters and Chinese economic sentiment,” said Helen Given, FX trader at Monex USA in Washington, referring to data from China released earlier on Tuesday.

China’s imports missed forecasts and grew just 0.5%. That followed Monday’s lower-than-expected inflation data, highlighting still weak domestic demand.

China’s yuan eased slightly versus the dollar, which rose 0.1% to 7.1212, with losses capped by better-than-expected export data.

“Expectations for CPI tomorrow are a bit lower than last month’s annual reading, which would usually prompt some pre-emptive dollar weakness, but international anxieties at play and a softer Chinese import and export reading is keeping the US dollar afloat a bit,” Given added.

The headline US CPI is expected to have risen 0.2% on a month-on-month basis in August, according to a Reuters poll, unchanged from the previous month. But on a year-on-year basis it is forecast to have gained just 2.6%, down from 2.9% in July.

In midmorning trading, the dollar fell 0.4% against the yen to 142.60 yen, not far from the one-month low of 141.75 touched on Friday. The greenback fell 2.7% last week against the yen.

Analysts do not expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates or to provide decisive guidance on Friday next week.

Against the Swiss franc, the dollar slid 0.3% to 0.8472 franc.

Meanwhile, the euro slipped 0.2% to USD 1.1016 after dropping nearly 0.5% on Monday. Investors are watching Europe’s political backdrop, citing the stalemate in France and heightened uncertainty across the EU after German regional elections.

The spotlight though will also be on the messaging from the European Central Bank on Thursday after its policy meeting. Traders are pricing in 63 bps of ECB easing this year.

The euro’s slight losses pushed the dollar index, a gauge of the greenback’s value against six major currencies, 0.1% higher to 101.75. So far this year, the dollar index has moderately gained by 0.2%.

Barclays strategists noted that the greenback typically weaken ahead of Fed easing cycles and tends to overestimate rate cuts during so-called soft economic landings. Still, they said, a large part of its move had probably already happened.

Investor focus will also be on the televised US presidential debate between Republican nominee Donald Trump and his rival, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, later on Tuesday that could weigh heavily on the November election.

“Should a clear winner emerge from the debate, expect the forex market to start ‘front-loading’ positions it would have taken after the election result in November,” said Chris Turner, head of forex strategy at ING.

Investors see the greenback rising in the event of a Trump victory, as tariffs might prop up the currency and higher fiscal spending could boost interest rates.

The pound, meanwhile, rose after UK data showed robust employment growth. It was last down 0.1% at USD 1.3055.

(Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo in Milan and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York; Additional reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne, Mark Potter, and Jonathan Oatis)

Oil settles near 3-year low on weak demand outlook

HOUSTON – Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures settled at their lowest level since December 2021 on Tuesday, after OPEC+ revised down its demand forecast for this year and 2025, offsetting supply concerns from Tropical Storm Francine.

Brent crude futures settled down USD 2.65, or 3.69%, at USD 69.19 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled down USD 2.96, or 4.31%, to USD 65.75 a barrel.

Both benchmarks dropped by more than USD 3 during the session, after each rose by about 1% on Monday. WTI crude futures fell more than 5% on Tuesday, hitting their lowest levels since May 2023.

On Tuesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in a monthly report said world oil demand would rise by 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from last month’s forecast for growth of 2.11 million bpd.

Until last month, OPEC had kept the forecast unchanged since it was first made in July 2023.

OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.74 million bpd from 1.78 million bpd. Prices slid on the weakening global demand prospects and expectations of oil oversupply.

Separately, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday said global oil demand is set to grow to a bigger record this year while output growth will be smaller than prior forecasts.

Global oil demand is expected to average around 103.1 million barrels per day this year, the EIA said, some 200,000 bpd higher than its previous forecast of 102.9 million bpd.

Oil prices remained depressed after the EIA forecast release, as concerns about China continued to weigh on prices.

Data released on Tuesday showed China’s exports grew in August at their fastest in nearly 1-1/2 years, but imports disappointed with domestic demand depressed.

Meanwhile, Asian refiners’ margins fell to their lowest seasonal level since 2020 last week on rising supplies of diesel and gasoline.

“There’s almost no oil demand growth in the advanced economies this year. Fiscal stimulus in China has not boosted the construction sector; that’s one big reason Chinese demand for diesel is shrinking,” said Clay Seigle, an oil market strategist.

Investors are increasingly pricing in a slowing global economy, according to Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group.

Energy stocks were the biggest loser among the S&P 500 sectors on Tuesday. Hess, Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, Halliburton, SLB, Ovintiv, Devon Energy, all set new intraday 52-week lows on Tuesday.

STORM HITS US OUTPUT

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Francine barrelled across the Gulf of Mexico driving operators to shut in around a quarter of offshore crude production, the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said on Tuesday.

The US Gulf of Mexico accounts for about 15% of all domestic oil production and 2% of natural gas output, according to federal data.

The storm was on track to become a hurricane on Tuesday, the US National Hurricane Center said.

Exxon Mobil, Shell, and Chevron have removed offshore staff and halted some Gulf of Mexico oil and gas operations.

So far, production shut-ins have failed to offset weak demand sentiment and support prices, analysts said.

Meanwhile, US crude oil and gasoline inventories fell while distillates rose last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

The API figures showed crude stocks fell by 2.793 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 6, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories fell by 513,000 barrels, and distillates rose by 191,000 barrels.

Investors await weekly oil stock data from the EIA, published at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, Ahmad Ghaddar in London; Additional reporting by Katya Golubkova in Tokyo, Florence Tan in Singapore, and Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Nick Zieminski, and Matthew Lewis)

Disinflation dynamics deepen

The slide in oil and commodity prices is garnering more attention as investors await Wednesday’s US consumer price inflation figures, the last major economic data point before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week.

The question for investors is whether this should be taken as a positive ‘risk on’ signal, or not?

If disinflationary dynamics push US inflation lower then the Fed may cut interest rates more than it had planned, weighing on Treasury yields and the dollar, and giving a boost to Asian and emerging market assets.

But if they reflect weakening global demand and economic activity then investors will be far less inclined to put their money in riskier markets.

Given that these developments have coincided with yet another round of gloomy growth and inflation signals from China, caution may be the order of the day.

Figures on Tuesday showed that year-on-year import growth in China collapsed to just 0.5% in August, casting a cloud over brighter news that exports grew at their fastest pace in a year and a half.

Brent crude oil sank 3.7% and US futures lost 4.3% on Tuesday, clocking their lowest daily close since December 2021. Both are now down more than 25% on the same period a year ago, and US gasoline prices are 30% cheaper than they were a year ago.

This signals a significant acceleration in disinflationary dynamics that, all else equal, are bound to put downward pressure on next year’s inflation readings.

Could inflation be on course to undershoot the Fed’s 2% target soon?

It’s worth remembering that the Fed in June raised its median inflation projections for this year and next to 2.8% and 2.3%, respectively. It may well be forced to revise them back down again next week.

Asian markets will get the chance to react to the US inflation data on Thursday. The trading day on Wednesday is shaping up to be reasonably calm and positive after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose for a second day, the first time either has done that since mid-August.

The Asian calendar is light, with a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Sarah Hunter one of the few highlights.

The RBA’s next policy meeting is Sept. 23-24, a week after the Fed. Given the persistently hawkish tone from RBA officials, it’s no surprise that money markets have the RBA down as one of the most cautious G10 central banks regarding rate cuts.

Aussie swaps markets are still not fully pricing in a quarter-point rate cut this year, and the two-year US/Australian yield spread is the narrowest in more than two years at only 7 basis points.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Wednesday:
– RBA’s Sarah Hunter speaks

– South Korea unemployment (August)

– US Presidential debate (Tuesday)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever)

Oil steady as supply disruptions from Storm Francine offset weak demand

Oil was steady in early trade on Tuesday as investors weighed supply disruptions from Tropical Storm Francine and the potential for further output cuts against persistently weak Chinese demand.

Brent crude futures rose 16 cents, or 0.22%, to USD 72.00 a barrel by 0004 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 12 cents, or 0.17%, to USD 68.83 a barrel.

Both benchmarks gained around 1% at Monday’s settlement.

The US Coast Guard ordered the closure of all operations at Brownsville and other small Texas ports on Monday evening, as Tropical Storm Francine barrelled across the Gulf.

The port of Corpus Christi remained open but with restrictions.

The tropical storm is forecast to strengthen significantly over the next couple of days, and was expected to become a hurricane on Monday night or Tuesday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Exxon Mobil said it shut-in output at its Hoover offshore production platform, while Shell paused drilling operations at two platforms. Chevron also began shutting in oil and gas output, at two of its offshore production platforms.

“At least 125,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil capacity is at risk of being disrupted,” ANZ analysts said in a note, citing data from the NHC.

Elsewhere, global commodity traders Gunvor and Trafigura anticipate oil prices may range between USD 60 and USD 70 per barrel on wakened Chinese demand and persistent global oversupply, executives told Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) attendees on Monday.

China’s shift towards lower-carbon fuels and a sluggish economy are dampening oil demand growth in the world’s largest crude importer, APPEC conference speakers said.

China’s annual demand growth has slowed from around 500,000-600,000 bpd in the five years before the COVID-19 pandemic to 200,000 bpd now, said Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs.

Refining margins in Asia have slipped to their lowest seasonal levels since 2020.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Gold prices steady with spotlight on US inflation data

Gold prices held their ground on Monday, as investors awaited the US inflation report for further clues on the potential size of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut.

Spot gold was little changed at USD 2,499.79 per ounce by 1:54 p.m. ET (1754 GMT).

US gold futures settled 0.3% higher at USD 2,532.70.

Bullion “will probably be fairly consolidated, perhaps a little bit choppy in the established range in gold,” said Peter A. Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, who expects gold to hit all-time highs.

Bullion hit a record high of USD 2,531.60 on Aug. 20.

Traders now see a 73% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s meeting next week, and a 27% chance of a 50 bp reduction, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

“The market seems to be reconciling that the Fed is probably more likely to do the smaller 25-basis-point cut and that’s been my position all along,” Grant added.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the zero-yield bullion.

Last week, a report showed US employment increased less than expected in August, but a drop in the jobless rate to 4.2% suggested the labour market was not falling off a cliff to warrant a half-point cut.

Investors will now watch out for August US consumer price data on Wednesday and the producer price index on Thursday.

“If inflation numbers come much lower than expected and raise hopes for a 50-bp cut, then gold could hit all-time highs. But even if the consensus stays for a 25-bp cut, gold wouldn’t see a dramatic loss in prices as the Fed is definitely cutting rates,” Kinesis Money market analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa said.

The US public’s outlook for inflationary pressures was little changed last month, according to a report released on Monday by the New York Federal Reserve.

Spot silver rose 1.2% to USD 28.26 per ounce, platinum gained 2.3% to USD 942.45 and palladium was up more than 3% at USD 945.72.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Krishna Chandra Eluri, and Shreya Biswas)

US yields mixed after bond rally as first rate cut size uncertain

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields were mixed on Monday, with some profit-taking after last week’s bond rally driven by a weakening labor market that has left the market wondering how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month.

Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, touched a more than one-year low on Friday after data showing US employers added far fewer workers than expected in August and July. This cemented prospects that the US central bank will start cutting rates at its Sept. 17-18 meeting.

Those gains were partly reversed on Monday, as short-dated yields inched higher.

“The reality set in that the market moved a little too much to lower yields on Friday and so there was a decent window to sell paper at richer levels,” said Tom di Galoma, head of fixed income trading at Curvature Securities.

Investors were also selling ahead of this week’s Treasury auctions of three-, 10- and 30-year paper, as well as on expectations of heavy corporate debt supply as issuers try to take advantage of lower yields, he added.

Rates traders on Monday were assigning a 71% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed next week, and a 29% probability of a 50 basis point cut, CME Group data showed.

Uncertainty over the magnitude of the first rate cut could cause some volatility in Treasuries for the rest of the week, with investors looking at consumer price data on Wednesday for more clarity over the pace of disinflation in the economy.

A report released by the New York Federal Reserve on Monday showed the US public’s outlook for inflationary pressures was little changed last month as price pressures continued to retreat.

“There’s a lot of consensus that the Fed is going to cut substantially,” said Campe Goodman, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Wellington Management. “I think the debate is less about how much and more about whether they are going to do it sooner or later.”

The US presidential debate between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump on Tuesday could also cause some price fluctuations in the bond market, investors said.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields edged down to 3.699%, while two-year yields crept higher to 3.669%.

The closely watched part of the Treasury yield curve comparing two- and 10-year yields stood at about three basis points, flatter than on Friday, when the spread of 10-year over two-year yields was the largest since July 2022.

(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Richard Chang)

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