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THE GIST
NEWS AND FEATURES
Global Philippines Fine Living
INSIGHTS
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
WEBINARS
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
DOWNLOADS
economy-ss-8
Inflation Update: Weak demand softens shocks
July 4, 2025 DOWNLOAD
948 x 535 px AdobeStock_433552847
Economic Updates
Monthly Economic Update: Fed cuts incoming   
June 30, 2025 DOWNLOAD
equities-3may23-2
Consensus Pricing
Consensus Pricing – June 2025
June 25, 2025 DOWNLOAD
View all Reports
Currencies 2 MIN READ

Yen bulls have the edge

November 6, 2024By Reuters
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Yen bulls are gathering momentum, no matter the outcome of the US elections.

Election risks are significant. Breakevens for overnight options suggest USD/JPY can easily test 150 or 154 once voting outcomes become clearer. Conventional thinking suggests a Kamala Harris victory is negative for USD/JPY and a Donald Trump win is positive.

That said, there is a slight bearish bias in option activity and pricing, with some traders seeing USD/JPY slumping below 150 should the “Trump trade” and yen shorts unravel. Turnover in USD/JPY options with strikes set below current spot is outpacing those with higher strikes about 3 to 1, DTCC data shows. Part of the turnover is likely hedging short yen positions built up since USD/JPY topped 150.

But there are other potentially yen-positive factors at play outside the election outcome. First, the Fed will likely deliver a 25 basis point cut this week. Second, a post-election drop in volatility should buoy US equites, weighing on the dollar. Third, political uncertainty in Japan may ease if a new ruling coalition is formed prior to Monday’s special session of Parliament. Finally, the odds of a December Bank of Japan rate hike are edging up.

Technically, a USD/JPY close below its 200-DMA of 151.60 would open up a test of the key 150 psychological level. A further drop below the 149.09 Oct. 21 low would put the focus on the pair’s thinning Ichimoku cloud.

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

 

This article originally appeared on reuters.com

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