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Archives: Reuters Articles

Gold holds steady on lower yields; Fed rate hike looms

Gold holds steady on lower yields; Fed rate hike looms

July 25 (Reuters) – Gold prices steadied on Monday, buoyed by lower Treasury yields and a slight pullback in the dollar, while investors braced for a 75-basis-point interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve this week.

Spot gold was unchanged at USD 1,726.09 per ounce, as of 0646 GMT, after declining 0.3% in early trade. It had hit a more than one-week high on Friday.

US gold futures eased 0.3% to USD 1,722.30 per ounce.

The dollar was down 0.1% against its rivals, making greenback-priced bullion less expensive for buyers holding other currencies, while the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields hovered near eight-week lows.

“The fall in US yields on the back of global recessionary concerns has underpinned gold,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.

“Today, we could be seeing a touch of indecision ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee which is likely to underscore the Fed dilemma of fighting inflation at the expense of growth.”

The main focus this week will be on the US central bank’s two-day policy meeting which concludes on Wednesday, and markets are pricing in a 75 bps rate hike.

Last week, the European Central Bank joined its global peers in the fight against soaring inflation as it raised interest rates by 50 bps and is expected to hike rates until inflation falls back to its 2% target.

Although gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, rising interest rates lift bond yields, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Gold prices have dropped more than USD 350, or 16%, since climbing past the USD 2,000-per-ounce level in early March due to the Fed’s rapid rate hikes and the dollar’s recent rally.

Asian stocks lost ground on Monday, retreating from over three-week highs as worries about a global economic downturn sapped risk appetite.

Spot silver XAG= was down 0.2% at USD 18.56 per ounce, platinum XPT= was steady at USD 873.68, and palladium slipped 2.5% to USD 1,979.94.

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Vinay Dwivedi)

Oil falls on concerns expected Fed hike will impact fuel demand

Oil falls on concerns expected Fed hike will impact fuel demand

TOKYO, July 25 (Reuters) – Oil fell on Monday, reversing earlier gains but continuing a recent losing streak, on concerns that an expected increase in interest rates in the US, the world’s biggest oil user, may limit fuel demand growth.

Brent crude futures for September settlement dropped 48 cents, or 0.5%, to USD 102.72 a barrel at 0205 GMT, down for a fourth day.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for September delivery fell 65 cents, or 0.7%, to USD 94.05 a barrel, also down for a fourth day.

“The market tone is likely to remain bearish amid worries that interest rate hikes would slash global fuel demand and that the resumption of some Libyan crude oil output would ease tightness in global supply,” said Kazuhiko Saito, chief analyst at Fujitomi Securities Co Ltd.

Oil futures have been volatile in recent weeks as traders try to reconcile the possibilities of further interest rate hikes that could limit economic activity, and thus cut fuel demand growth, against tight supply from the disruptions in the trading of Russian barrels because of the Western sanctions amid the Ukraine conflict.

Officials at the US Federal Reserve have indicated that the central bank would likely raise rates by 75 basis points at its July 26-27 meeting.

On the supply side, Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) aims to bring back production to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in two weeks, NOC said in a statement early on Saturday.

The European Union said last week that it would allow Russian state-owned companies to ship oil to third countries under an adjustment of sanctions agreed by member states last week aimed at limiting the risks to global energy security.

However, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said on Friday that Russia will not supply oil to countries that decide to impose a price cap on its oil.

(Reporting by Yuka Obayashi; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)

 

Gold dips as dollar firms, Fed rate hike looms

Gold dips as dollar firms, Fed rate hike looms

July 25 (Reuters) – Gold prices slipped on Monday, as an elevated dollar and prospects of an aggressive interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve this week dented demand for non-yielding bullion.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold was down 0.2% at USD 1,722.84 per ounce, as of 0110 GMT, after rising to a more than one-week high on Friday.

* U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to USD 1,718.70 per ounce.

* The dollar rose 0.1% against its rivals, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

* The U.S. central bank will conclude a two-day meeting on Wednesday, and markets are pricing in a 75-basis-point rate hike to combat soaring inflation.

* Although gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

* U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that the U.S. economic growth was slowing and she acknowledged the risk of a recession, but she said a downturn was not inevitable.

* Last week, the European Central Bank joined its global peers in the fight against soaring inflation as it raised interest rates by 50 bps.

* The European Central bank will raise its interest rates until inflation falls back to its 2% target, President Christine Lagarde said in an interview with Germany’s Funke Mediengruppe published on Friday.

* Spot silver was down 0.6% at USD 18.48 per ounce, platinum dipped 0.6% to USD 868.62, and palladium slipped 1.5% to USD 1,999.94.

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)

0800 Germany Ifo Business Climate New July

0800 Germany Ifo Curr Conditions New July

0800 Germany Ifo Expectations New July

1000 UK CBI Business Optimism Q3

2350 Bank of Japan releases Minutes of Monetary Policy Meetingheld on June 16 and 17

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

Dollar firm as Fed meeting and growth risks dominate

Dollar firm as Fed meeting and growth risks dominate

SINGAPORE, July 25 (Reuters) – The dollar was on a firm footing on Monday, as traders brace for a sharp US interest rate hike this week and look for safety as data points to a weakening global economy.

The greenback was up slightly against most majors early in the Asia session, trading at USD 1.0195 on the euro EUR=EBS and steadying Friday losses to buy 136.57 Japanese yen.

The US Federal Reserve concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday and markets are priced for a 75-basis-point (bp) rate hike, with about a 9% chance of a 100 bp hike.

“Market reaction will turn on how hawkish Chair (Jerome)Powell sounds with his determination to reduce inflation in the face of slowing growth,” said National Australia Bank currency strategist Rodrigo Catril.

US growth data is also due out Thursday, though markets have already been rattled by a slew of soft business indicators in Europe, which snuffed out a rally in risk assets on Friday.

An energy crisis also hangs over the euro, while the trade-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars, which made one-month highs on Friday, have backed away.

The Aussie edged about 0.5% lower to USD 0.6892 and the kiwi was down by the same margin to USD 0.6223.

Australian consumer price data is due on Wednesday and a hot number could lend support by ramping up bets on rate hikes, though analysts warned the backdrop was mostly negative.

“The Australian dollar will mainly be a function of the world economic outlook,” said Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s head of international economics, Joe Capurso.

“The darkening outlook suggests the Aussie has more downside than upside risk and can test USD 0.6800 this week.”

Sterling GBP=D3 also slipped on Monday, even as markets reckon on a 60% chance the Bank of England would lift rates by 50 bp next week. It was last down 0.3% to USD 1.1970.

Bitcoin hovered at USD 22.278. The dollar rose 0.4% to buy 0.9641 Swiss francs. The US dollar index sat at 106.840, just below a two-decade high made in mid July at 109.290.

(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Oil and interest rate futures point to cyclical downturn before end of 2022: Kemp

Oil and interest rate futures point to cyclical downturn before end of 2022: Kemp

LONDON, July 22 (Reuters) – Recent moves in crude oil and interest rate futures anticipate a downturn in the business cycle that will cause oil consumption to dip before the end of the end of the year and into the first three months of 2023.

Federal funds futures prices imply US interest rates are expected to peak at 3.50-3.75% in the first quarter of 2023, up from 1.50-1.75% at present, before declining around 50 basis points by the end of 2023.

The interest rate path implies that a significant cyclical slowdown will be underway by the end of 2022, bearing down on inflation and allowing the central bank to ease policy to support activity from the second quarter.

Since early June, rising expected interest rates have correlated closely with the softening of Brent calendar spreads from the first and second quarter of 2023 onwards.

Oil futures prices are anticipating slower growth by the end of 2022 – leading to an accumulation of inventories from early 2023 relieving some of the tightness in the market.

Brent’s spread for the first quarter of 2023 has softened to a backwardation of less than USD 3.80 per barrel from more than USD 5.40 in early June.

The spread for the second quarter of 2023 has come in even more sharply to a backwardation of less than USD 2.30 from nearly USD 4.30.

Purchasing managers’ surveys show the manufacturing sector losing momentum in the United States and already contracting in the euro zone.

In the United States, the Institute for Supply Management’s composite manufacturing index slipped to 53.0 in June (53rd percentile for all months since 1980) from 56.1 in May (76th percentile) and 57.6 in January (84th percentile).

The euro zone index has slumped to 49.6 in July (28th percentile for all months since 2006) from 52.1 in June (48th percentile) and 58.7 in January (95th percentile).

The forecast timeline for a slowdown implied by interest rate and oil futures appears reasonable and there are already signs that it is underway.

The only question is whether it is mild enough to count as a mid-cycle soft patch, prolonging the current cycle into 2023 and 2024, or severe enough to end the current cycle and start a new one later in 2023.

The cycle’s evolution depends on (a) the course of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; (b) sanctions imposed by the United States and European Union in response; (c) the pace of disinflation; and (d) how far consumers and businesses pull back spending in response to higher inflation and a deteriorating economic outlook.

These four factors will determine whether the slowdown is brief and shallow or longer and deeper – and whether the accumulation of petroleum inventories is relatively modest or much larger.

(John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by David Evans)

No longer silent, Japan asset managers flex muscle in legacy to Abe

No longer silent, Japan asset managers flex muscle in legacy to Abe

TOKYO, July 25 (Reuters) – Japan’s asset managers nudged the volume up another notch at shareholder meetings this year, increasingly opposing management proposals and adding momentum to a policy of attracting foreign investors initiated by slain former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Nikko Asset Management, Asset Management One and others have become distinct voices in Japan’s new-found activism, countering foreign criticism of asset managers’ rubber-stamp voting.

The pair opposed management at a domestic firm by voting for board nominees proposed by a foreign investor, while in another high-profile case, company management canned a proposal after some asset managers supported a foreign investor’s objection.

This year’s cases add to a gradual change in voting sparked by Abe’s corporate stewardship code in 2014, and which gained impetus in 2017 with a revision requiring the disclosure of voting records for each agenda item at shareholder meetings. Abe was shot and killed this month during an election campaign.

The revision “raised asset managers’ commitment because every manager is held accountable for each voting decision,” said Katsuya Kikuchi, associate director at Tokio Marine Asset Management.

Increased domestic activism is likely to help firms burnish credentials on issues as varied as the environment, society and governance, raising their appeal for foreign investors looking to increase exposure to Japan, asset managers said.

Domestic asset managers have voted “against management in increasing amounts every year for the last five years,” said Seth Fischer, founder of Hong Kong-based Oasis Management, which has invested in Japanese firms including Toshiba Corp.

Still, only a fraction of shareholder proposals gain support from domestic institutional investors. Last year, these investors supported just 6.8% of such proposals on average at shareholder meetings served by electric voting platform operator ICJ, versus 15% among foreign counterparts.

SUPPORTING ROLE

Foreigners lead shareholder activism in Japan with domestic asset managers mainly playing a supportive role, though some investors have said they hope domestic managers will take more initiative and make their own proposals for company management.

Some domestic asset managers supported Oasis which queried related-party transactions at Fujitec Co Ltd 6406.T and opposed a management proposal to nominate its chief executive to the board of directors. The elevator maker withdrew the proposal an hour before its annual shareholder meeting last month.

In another vote this year, Singapore-based 3D Investment Partners’ campaign to bring its nominees onto the board of IT firm Fuji Soft Inc.  received unexpectedly high support of nearly 40%.

Those voting in favour included Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc’s 8306.T Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking, Mizuho Financial Group Inc’s Asset Management One and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc’s Nikko Asset Management.

“Before 2014, we’d hear investee firms moan about foreign investors’ strict voting policies,” said Hidenori Yoshikawa, corporate governance consultant at Daiwa Institute of Research. “But as domestic institutional investors tightened their stance, we now hear investees say domestic investors are stricter.”

Domestic asset managers have been less supportive of company management than some global peers, showed a report by shareholder advisory SquareWell Partners which analysed voting for incumbent director elections at Japan’s 100 biggest firms.

Average support rates from 2019 to 2021 stood at 95.9% at Asset Management One, 94.2% at Nikko Asset Management and 88.9% at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management. That compared with 99.9% and 99.7% at US peers Vanguard and BlackRock respectively.

GREATER SCRUTINY

Still, it is rare for an activist shareholder motion to win approval in Japan where only four cases have been successful, partly as management is often insulated by passive ownership.

But domestic asset managers are increasingly turning on management-protecting schemes, such as takeover defences and cross-shareholding arrangements.

Daiwa Securities Group Inc’s Daiwa Asset Management and other major asset managers this year tightened rules for director voting at firms engaged in cross-shareholding, which still account for about 30% of Japan’s USD 6 trillion stock market.

Also driving change is greater scrutiny from asset owners such as the Government Pension Investment Fund and Pension Fund Association for Local Government Officials, asset managers said.

There is also room for improvement in board independence and diversity, said Takuya Iyoda, chief analyst at Nissay Asset Management. Rules could be tightened to the extent that boards must have a majority of independent directors, he said.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if requirements for diversity eventually expand to include not just women but also non-Japanese.”

(Reporting by Makiko Yamazaki; Editing by Sumeet Chatterjee and Christopher Cushing)

US to host virtual meeting on Tuesday of Indo-Pacific trade, economic ministers

WASHINGTON, July 24 (Reuters) – The United States will host a virtual meeting on Tuesday of officials representing the 14 countries that have joined the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, as Washington seeks to expand its engagement with Asia.

The ministerial meeting will be hosted by US Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, their offices announced in a statement on Sunday.

President Joe Biden, who launched the IPEF in May on a trip to Tokyo, wants to use it as a way to raise environmental, labor and other standards across Asia.

Washington has lacked an economic pillar to its Indo-Pacific engagement since former President Donald Trump quit a multinational trans-Pacific trade agreement, leaving the field open to China to expand its influence.

In addition to the United States, the IPEF members comprise Australia, Brunei, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Topics for discussion at Tuesday’s meeting include trade, supply chains, clean energy, infrastructure, taxes and combating corruption, the statement said.

(Reporting by Eric Beech; editing by Diane Craft)

Benchmark US yield hits 8-week low on weak data, recession fears

Benchmark US yield hits 8-week low on weak data, recession fears

NEW YORK, July 22 (Reuters) – The US 10-year Treasury note yield was on track to end the week near its lowest since late May after weak data on Friday added to worries about the global economy and traders reassessed the Federal Reserve’s ability to raise rates much further.

Data on Friday showed the global economy teetering into a slowdown at a time when central banks are focusing on battling inflation by limiting access to cash.

Business activity in the United States contracted this month for the first time in nearly two years, S&P Global’s US Composite PMI Output Index showed. Euro zone activity contracted for the first time in more than a year and growth in Britain was at a 17-month low.

Separately, Japan’s government is expected to sharply cut its forecast for domestic growth, while China’s strict COVID-19 lockdowns and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have further damaged global supply chains.

“There was a pretty sharp correction after the PMIs,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of US rates strategy at Societe Generale in New York. “The market is quickly pricing out the possibility of the Fed being able to raise rates aggressively for the remainder of the year.”

A 75 basis-point hike from the Fed is all but priced in according to traders, with the probability of a larger move dwindling down into the single digits.

Yields were lifted off their lows in part by comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who committed to fighting inflation despite growing fears of a recession in the euro bloc.

But yields across the US curve ended near their lowest in the session.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 12.1 basis points at 2.974%.

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 15 basis points to 2.758%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down 9.7 basis points to 2.975%.

The two- and 10-year Treasury notes yield spread, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at -22.0 basis points.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.585%, after closing at 2.591% on Thursday.

The US dollar 5 years forward inflation-linked swap, seen by some as a better gauge of inflation expectations due to possible distortions caused by the Fed’s quantitative easing, was last at 2.367%.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Will Dunham)

Strong dollar looms over U.S. earnings season

Strong dollar looms over U.S. earnings season

NEW YORK, July 21 (Reuters) – Companies reporting earnings in coming weeks are likely to mention one common factor gouging their results: the strong dollar.

The US currency stands near a 20-year high against a basket of its peers and is up 15.1% in the past year, lifted by a hawkish Federal Reserve and investors seeking shelter from turbulent markets.

A strong dollar can be a headwind for US companies as it makes exporters’ products less competitive abroad and hurts multinationals that need to convert their foreign profits back into the US currency.

Each percentage point of year-on-year increase in the US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against six other currencies, translates to a 0.5 percentage point hit to S&P 500 earnings growth, analysts at MorganStanley estimated.

“You seemingly can’t get a break right now. We’re starting to get some relief from oil prices, but you’ve still got the dollar banging on you,” said Bill Stone, chief investment officer at the Glenview Trust Company.

International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), Netflix Inc. (NFLX) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) were among the companies that in the past week cited the dollar’s strength as a headwind, with Johnson & Johnson joining Microsoft Corp MSFT.O by cutting its guidance due to the impact of the greenback’s rise.

Next week’s results from Apple Inc. (AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Coca-Cola Co (KO) and a slew of other companies will give investors a better picture of how businesses are holding up in the face of the strong dollar and soaring inflation.

Investors are also awaiting what the Fed will have to say on those topics at its monetary policy meeting next week, at which it is widely expected to deliver another jumbo-sized 75 basis-point rate increase.

DOLLAR DOLDRUMS

Overall, some 40% of S&P 500 revenues come from overseas, data from FactSet showed. Information technology leads all sectors with 58% of revenues derived internationally, followed by materials with 56%, while utilities companies source just 2% of their revenues out of the United States, according to FactSet.

The dollar’s strength threatens to combine with high inflation, supply chain issues and other factors to weigh on earnings, analysts said.

“The rate of change on the dollar exhibits a strong negative correlation over time vs. S&P 500 earnings revisions. USD strength comes at an inopportune time for corporates already facing margin pressure and increasingly weaker demand,” Morgan Stanley’s analysts wrote.

So far, 5.1% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported their second quarter results have posted earnings above expectations, nearly half the average of 9.5% over the prior four quarters, according to Refintiv data.

Few can say when the dollar will turn, as the inflation-fighting Fed is expected to raise interest rates more aggressively than other central banks, boosting the US currency’s appeal to yield-seeking investors.

Still, some are betting that signs of a peak in the dollar’s rally could balance out some of the damage caused by the burgeoning greenback.

Dollar peaks over the past 40 years have been followed by rallies in the S&P 500, with the benchmark index climbing by an average of 10% in the next 12 months on increased risk appetite and expectations of improving earnings, wrote John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management.

Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group, said the dollar is trading at a nearly 120% “safe-haven premium” based on its historical relationship to the consumer sentiment index.

The dollar has declined by an average 4.5% over 12 months each time its premium rose over 20% since 1988, he added.

Others are looking at the bright side of dollar strength, which some see reflects the belief that the United States can weather a looming global slowdown better than other countries.

Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, has been increasing his overweight in US equities, betting that any the effects of a strong dollar will be outweighed by better economic growth over the long run.

“We think investors get too focused on the dollar’s impact on earnings,” he said.

(Reporting by David Randall; Additional reporting by Sinead Carew; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Jonathan Oatis)

Gold set to snap 5-week losing streak on softer dollar, yields

Gold set to snap 5-week losing streak on softer dollar, yields

July 22 (Reuters) – Gold headed for its first weekly gain in six on Friday as a pullback in US Treasury yields and the dollar’s decline bolstered non-yielding bullion’s safe-haven appeal as economic risks persisted.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to USD 1,721.29 per ounce by 2:21 p.m. EDT (1821 GMT). It was up about 1% so far this week, following a strong rebound from a more than one-year low of USD 1,680.25 on Thursday.

US gold futures settled 0.8% higher at USD 1,727.4.

Gold’s uptick was helped by a retreat in US 10-year Treasury yields.

Boosting gold’s allure for overseas buyers, the dollar index, also a rival safe haven, headed for its first weekly fall in four as disappointing US data dampened expectations of a large 100-basis-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its July 26-27 policy meeting.

The lower dollar, declining growth stocks and the dip in yields are all helping gold, said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago.

While the Fed meeting is likely to be a “high-volatility event” for gold, there may not be many steep hikes after the one next week, Streible added.

Rising US rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

“Assuming the Fed hikes by 75 bps in July, we believe the bulk of the near-term downside risk has been priced in; but the longer-term trend is still to the downside,” Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper said in a note.

But gold could also find support from a price-responsive physical market and if recession risks deepen, Cooper added.

In physical markets, demand picked up in some Asian hubs this week amid softer prices.

Spot silver fell 1.7% to USD 18.53 per ounce, bound for its eight straight weekly decline.

Platinum shed 0.3%, to USD 869.56, while palladium XPD= rose about 5% to USD 1,986.50, en route to an about 9% gain for the week.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and Arpan Varghese in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Arundhati Sarkar and Rahul Paswan; Editing by Paul Simao and Krishna Chandra Eluri)

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