After steep decline, US small caps tempt investors with cheap valuations

NEW YORK, July 29 (Reuters) – Shares of smaller US companies are outpacing a rally in the broader equity market as they draw investors looking to scoop up cheaply valued stocks and those betting the group has already priced in an economic slowdown.

The small-cap Russell 2000 jumped 10.4% in July against a 9.1% gain for the benchmark S&P 500, its biggest percentage-point outperformance on a monthly basis since February.

Small caps tend to be more domestically oriented, less profitable and carry a heavier debt load than their larger counterparts, often putting them in the firing line when worries over the economy take hold and markets become volatile.

This year was no exception: the Russell 2000 has fallen 16% in 2022 despite July’s rebound, compared with the S&P 500’s 13.3% drop, as the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy faster than expected to fight red-hot inflation and sapped appetite for risk across markets.

The small-cap index is now at its cheapest versus the large- cap Russell 1000 since March 2020, according to Jefferies data, catching the eye of some bargain-hunting investors.

“There was an enormous amount of damage in the small-cap space,” said Francis Gannon, co-chief investment officer at Royce Investment Partners. “This is among the cheapest segments of the US market.”

Gannon has been increasing positions in small caps, focusing on industrials, materials and technology companies in the space.

Some investors also believe that prices for small caps – which are viewed as more attuned to the economy’s fluctuations – may already be reflecting a potential recession, limiting their downside if predictions of one come to pass.

Data this week showed US gross domestic product contracted for a second straight quarter, fulfilling an often-cited definition of a recession. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is the official arbiter of business cycles, has yet to declare a recession and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week it was unlikely the economy was in one, citing a strong employment backdrop.

Small caps appear to be “baking in a lot of economic pain already,” RBC Capital Markets analysts said in report earlier in July.

“Recessions have tended to be good buying opportunities for Small Caps,” they added.

The bank also noted that the Russell 2000’s forward price-to-earnings ratio has been trading in the 11-13 times range, “which tends to mark its bottom.”

Citi US equity strategists earlier this week wrote “stocks down the market cap spectrum appear closer to pricing in recession than their Large Cap peers.”

Not everyone is convinced it is time to buy small caps. Appetite for shares of smaller companies could quickly sour if inflation remains persistent and the Fed is forced to raise rates more aggressively than expected, inflicting more pain on the economy.

The central bank hiked interest rates by 2.25 percentage points already this year as it fights the worst inflation in four decades, but Powell offered little specific guidance about what to expect next during his news conference following Wednesday’s Fed meeting.

“There might be some more disappointing economic news to come even though the market is (already) pricing in somewhat of a mild recession,” said Angelo Kourkafas, an investment strategist at Edward Jones, which recommends clients “underweight” small caps for now.

The economy’s strength faces a key test next week, when the monthly US jobs report for July is released. Economic data is expected to be especially important for market sentiment in the next two months to give cues for the Fed’s next moves.

Analysts at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute said smaller companies will be challenged to maintain profitability and healthy cash positions as the economy slows. The firm projects the US economy will be in a recession in the second half of 2022 and into early 2023.

“We don’t think this move in small caps has legs,” said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells institute.

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf and David Randall in New York; Editing by Matthew Lewis)

Less long-dated debt and more bills likely in Treasury funding plans

July 29 (Reuters) – The US Treasury Department is likely to announce that it will continue to cut some of its issuance of coupon-bearing Treasury debt when it announces its funding plans for the coming quarter on Wednesday, on expectations of a shrinking deficit.

It may also offer hope that Treasury bill issuance will increase as the Federal Reserve pares back its balance sheet, as short-term investors struggle with a dearth of short-term debt supply.

The Treasury has been cutting the size of its Treasury debt auctions since late last year, after ramping them up to unprecedented sizes in 2020 to pay for COVID-19 related spending.

“Expected deficits have come down, Treasury needs to reduce the pace of issuance accordingly,” said Jonathan Cohn, head of rates trading strategy at Credit Suisse in New York.

Analysts are divided on how many maturities are likely to be cut for the third quarter, with some seeing cuts across the Treasury curve, while others expect reductions only in longer-dated and/or the seven-year and 20-year maturities.

The seven-year and 20-year Treasuries trade with relatively higher yields, which has caused some dislocations in the Treasury yield curve. Twenty-year bond yields, for example, are higher than those on 30-year bonds, while seven-year yields trade above those on 10-year debt.

Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets in New York, said that the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC), which releases a presentation along with the refunding announcement on Wednesday, is likely to focus on demand for the 20-year bonds.

He noted, however, that issues around the maturity relate to trading in the secondary market, with demand for the bonds solid at auctions. Lyngen expects 20-year yields to remain higher than 30-year bonds until the Fed begins cutting rates, which would deepen the yield curve, but he added that this is unlikely in the near-term.

Meanwhile, the Treasury is likely to indicate that it will ramp up Treasury bill issuance in the coming months as it makes up for declining purchases by the Fed, which is letting more bonds roll off its balance sheet as part of its efforts to normalize monetary policy.

After beginning quantitative tightening in June and slowly ramping up in size, the Fed will let USD 95 billion in bonds mature in September, which will include USD 60 billion in Treasuries and USD 35 billion in mortgage-backed debt.

More Treasury bill supply should help ease an imbalance that has left money markets investors struggling with a lack of safe, short-term assets to buy.

“Bill supply should start to pick up in the next few months,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, an interest rate strategist at TD Securities in New York, noting that this should also reduce demand for the Fed’s reverse repurchase agreement facility, which is seeing daily demand of more than USD 2 trillion.

TD expects net Treasury bill issuance to increase by USD 525 billion in fiscal year 2023, which begins in October, following a USD 173 billion decline in 2022 and a USD 1.32 trillion drop in 2021.

That compares to expectations that net coupon issuance will grow by USD 1.08 trillion in fiscal year 2023, after increasing by USD 1.87 trillion in 2022, and by USD 2.73 trillion in 2021.

Credit Suisse’s Cohn noted that an increase in bill issuance, and cuts to coupon-bearing debt, should also help to rebalance the Treasury’s debt mix to be more in line with recommendations by the TBAC, which advises the government on its borrowing strategy.

Treasury bills outstanding have fallen to the low end of the TBAC’s recommended 15-20% of total debt, he said. “In increasing bill supply Treasury would be more thoughtfully distributing the supply burden as QT unfolds across investor bases with appropriate liquidity,” Cohn said.

(Reporting By Karen Brettell; Editing by Alden Bentley and Nick Zieminski)

Gold bounces back as dollar retreats

July 29 (Reuters) – Gold bounced to a fresh multi-week peak on Friday with its safe-haven allure getting a fillip as the dollar gave up initial gains following another jump in US inflation, with the current price range also seemingly attracting bids for bullion.

Spot gold rose 0.6% to USD 1,765.76 per ounce by 1:50 p.m. ET (1750 GMT). US gold futures settled 0.7% higher at USD 1,781.80.

US consumer spending increased more than expected in June, with monthly inflation surging by the most since 2005.

The dollar quickly gave up small gains following the data and was last down 0.3%, allowing gold to expand its gains.

The reversal in the dollar, as the markets dig deeper into the data, is pushing metals higher again, said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Some of it could be safe-haven buying, but overall, it’s just a drive into metals, which are “pretty cheap” at the moment, Pavilonis added.

Gold was still bound for its fourth consecutive monthly drop. It has shed over USD 300 since climbing past the USD 2,000-per-ounce level in March, as the Fed embarked on a rapid rate hike path while the dollar also emerged as a preferred refuge amid growing recession risks.

“If we got some more problematic price inflation numbers, the Fed would have to be more aggressive,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst, Kitco Metals.

Higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

But gold got some respite, bouncing over 1%, from perception of a relatively less aggressive stance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday following an expected 75 basis-point hike.

Silver rose 1.4% to USD 20.25 per ounce, platinum was up 0.8% at USD 894.92 and palladium jumped 2.5% to USD 2,129.79.

Meanwhile, second biggest gold consumer India launched its first international bullion exchange to bring transparency to the market.

(Reporting by Eileen Soreng, Arundhati Sarkar and Kavya Guduru in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber and Krishna Chandra Eluri)

Philippine central bank chief says 2024 inflation forecast likely to be revised lower

MANILA, July 29 (Reuters) – The Philippine central bank will likely revise down its inflation forecast for 2024, its governor said on Friday, though he did not specify a figure.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas chief Felipe Medalla earlier in the day said inflation in 2023 is expected to fall back to within its 2%-4% target band, from a projected average of 5% this year.

(Reporting by Neil Jerome Morales; Editing by Kanupriya Kapoor)

World stocks eye best month since late 2020, dollar slips

LONDON/SINGAPORE, July 29 (Reuters) – Global stocks rose on Friday, on course for their best month since late 2020 as traders bet a weakening US economy could slow the pace of monetary tightening in the world’s largest economy, while the dollar struggled broadly against its rivals.

As inflation surges across major markets and central bankers fight to raise rates without killing off growth, riskier markets like stocks have tended to react positively to any softening in sentiment on the part of policymakers.

After Thursday data showing a second-quarter contraction for the US economy helped US markets rise strongly, European shares shrugged off weakness in Asian markets overnight to gain at the open.

Futures markets now predict that US interest rates will peak by December this year compared to June 2023 at the start of July month and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by nearly 50 bps next year to support slowing growth.

The MSCI World index was last up 0.3%, on course for a near-6% monthly gain, its best since November 2020, buoyed by broad gains across European markets, with the STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8%.

US stocks look set to gain later in the session, with futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.7% and 1.4%, respectively, buoyed in part by strong overnight earnings from Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL).

Despite the positive end to the month for stocks, Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said investors should proceed with caution.

“In the near term, we think the risk-reward for broad equity indexes will be muted. Equities are pricing in a ‘soft landing’, yet the risk of a deeper ‘slump’ in economic activity is elevated.”

Some of that concern had been evident in Asian stock markets overnight, after Beijing omitted reference to its full-year GDP growth target after a high-level Communist Party meeting.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.3%.

News in the prior session that US gross domestic product had shrunk 0.9% last quarter, to add to a 1.6% contraction in the quarter before that, weighed on the country’s bond yields and the greenback and both remained subdued on Friday.

The weakness came despite the Federal Reserve on Wednesday k delivering an aggressive interest rate hike of 75 basis points, its third this year.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes recovered slightly from its overnight lows to trade at 2.6975% while the two-year note’s yield, which typically moves in step with interest-rate expectations, was at 2.8500%.

The dollar was last down 0.5% against a basket of its major peers – yet still on course for a second month of gains – leaving the yen eyeing its best month in two years as the fall in US Treasury yields weighed on the greenback.

In Europe, Germany’s 10-year bond yield – the benchmark for the euro zone – was up almost 5 basis points in early trade at 0.85% yet that still leaves it down 50 bps on the month, on course for its weakest showing since 2010.

Across commodities, Brent crude futures and US West Texas Intermediate crude were last up 1.3%-1.7% as concerns about supply shortages ahead of the next meeting of OPEC ministers just about offset doubts around the economic outlook.

Gold extended its overnight gains to trade up 0.6% to USD 1,765 an ounce, helped by the weaker dollar.

(Additional reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Richard Pullin, Sam Holmes and Angus MacSwan)

Philippines airlifts aid to areas cut off since earthquake

BUCLOC, Philippines, July 29 (Reuters) – Philippine authorities on Friday airlifted supplies to districts that have been cut off since a powerful earthquake struck the main island of Luzon this week, as residents pleaded for food and temporary shelter.

The military said it had deployed personnel and helicopters to distribute relief goods to seven isolated towns in Abra province.

Around 3,000 food packs were airlifted to the communities, Romel Lopez, spokesperson for the social welfare ministry, told DZMM radio station.

Residents were still camping out in parks and open spaces in some areas, with their nerves frayed by the regular aftershocks since Wednesday’s magnitude 7.1 earthquake that killed six people and injured more than 270 in the northern part of Luzon.

In Abra’s Bucloc town, which was cut off until Thursday evening, residents were worried about more landslides due to aftershocks and rain, former mayor Gybel Cardenas told Reuters.

The quake damaged nearly 1,600 homes and about 100 pieces of infrastructure, the state disaster agency said, noting there had been more than 1,000 aftershocks with a magnitude ranging from 1.5 to 5.4 recorded so far.

“Our problem is we have yet to receive any assistance. We need food, milk, water and medicines,” Gamalea Dimaampao, a resident in Bangued town in Abra, told DZMM radio.

Families, including children, were sheltering under torn tarpaulin sheets, exposing them to the rains, Dimaampao said.

In Lagangilang town, also in Abra, residents asked for temporary shelter and food.

“Many families are trying to fit into makeshift tents. Adults sleep while seated while children cry during aftershocks,” resident Leonora Baruela told DZMM.

Abra, an area of plunging valleys and rugged mountains that is home to nearly 250,000 people, has accounted for most of the reported landslides and damaged roads since the quake.

The Philippines is prone to natural disasters and is located on the “Ring of Fire”, a band of volcanoes and fault lines around the rim of the Pacific Ocean. Earthquakes are frequent and there are an average of 20 typhoons each year, some triggering deadly landslides.

(Reporting by Neil Jerome Morales in Manila and Adrian Portugal in Bucloc; Editing by Ed Davies)

Wall Street weighs job cuts as deals slide in battered markets

NEW YORK, July 29 (Reuters) – Wall Street bosses are in a bind about whether to cut investment bankers or keep them on staff in hopes of a recovery from a brutal first half.

With risks of a recession looming and the Federal Reserve raising rates aggressively to stem inflation, prospects for arranging and financing deals have dried up.

Some banks are continuing to add staff, but the momentum has slowed from last year’s frenetic pace and some expect cuts to be inevitable.

While executives at US banking giants said market activity could bounce back after the first-half slump, it will probably be modest compared with a record year for transactions in 2021. Government stimulus and low interest rates set off a gusher of deals as companies rejigged their businesses last year, propping up bank divisions that advise corporations.

“There are a lot of people who think that we will get through this brutal uncertainty and that’s why, for example, there’s still much more hiring going on than we might have expected,” said Julian Bell, managing director and head of Americas at Sheffield Haworth, a recruitment firm for top executives.

Investment banks hired 152 managing directors in the Americas in the first half, Sheffield Haworth said in a report. That is a relatively modest decline from the 192 senior bankers who got new jobs in the same period last year, which was the busiest on record for the industry at large.

For now, banks have held off on widespread job cuts, which Bell said is “because people realize that we’re in a pause as opposed to a disaster – at least so far.”

But weakness has emerged in segments of banking.

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) and other mortgage lenders have cut staff in recent months as the industry downsizes after having expanded to handle a surge in pandemic demand.

Global equity capital market transactions have dropped nearly 69% in the first half from a year earlier, while mergers and acquisitions declined by nearly 23%, according to Dealogic.

‘TOO MANY PEOPLE’

Tough times this year and a “mediocre” outlook for 2023 will prompt investment banks to cut 5% to 10% of their staff and reduce compensation for those who remain, said Alan Johnson, managing director at compensation consultancy firm Johnson Associates.

“They are not going to pay as well,” said Johnson. “People are putting lists together – usually this will begin after Labor Day. With the advantage of hindsight, firms have too many people.”

Goldman Sachs Group Inc GS.N executives said the firm has slowed down hiring, and is restarting employee performance reviews, which had been suspended during the pandemic. That annual exercise typically weeds out underperformers.

“There’s going to be more volatility and there’s going to be more uncertainty,” CEO David Solomon told analysts after the company reported second-quarter results on July 18. Solomon said in light of the current environment “we will manage all our resources cautiously and dynamically.”

The company’s headcount swelled to 47,000 at the end of June, up 15% from a year earlier.

JPMorgan, which boosted its headcount by 8% for corporate and investment banking in the second quarter from a year earlier, was also cautious about the outlook for transactions.

“While our existing pipeline remains healthy, conversion of the deal backlog may be challenging if the current headwinds continue,” Jeremy Barnum, JPMorgan’s chief financial officer, said on in its earnings call.

JPMorgan and Goldman declined to elaborate further when contacted by Reuters.

Executives in financial services and other industries including retail and technology are markedly less positive about dealmaking prospects, according to a market survey by KPMG, an accounting firm.

“The longer a down-cycle persists, more institutions may be forced to consider capacity reductions,” Dylan Roberts, KPMG partner looking at financial services strategy, told Reuters.

“There are other levers that banks can pull before, or in addition to, reducing headcount,” such as cutting bonuses, he said.

A senior investment banker at a European firm New York said the key question would be whether M&A comes back in 2023 and if markets normalize.

“That will be the debate and the discussion that banks will have as we get to the end of the year,” the banker said.

(Reporting by Saeed Azhar in New York; Editing by Lananh Nguyen and Matthew Lewis)

Oil prices steady as market weighs tight supply against recession fears

SINGAPORE, July 29 (Reuters) – Oil prices were broadly steady on Friday, lifted by supply concerns as attention turns to the next meeting between OPEC and its allies, though fears of recession capped gains.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for September delivery rose 67 cents, or 0.7%, to USD 97.09 a barrel by 0640 GMT, reversing losses from the previous session and on track for a nearly 3% rise for the week.

Brent crude futures for September settlement, due to expire on Friday, dipped 12 cents, or 0.1%, at USD 107.02 a barrel. The more active October contract climbed 48 cents, or 0.5%, to USD 102.31.

“It certainly feels like we are back in trade-off mode again, where sentiment is shifting between recessionary risks in H2 and a fundamentally undersupplied market,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.

A key driver will be the next meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, together called OPEC+, on Aug. 3.

Producers have now unwound the record 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) supply cut they agreed in April 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic slammed demand.

“Oil prices have little chance of (posting) deep losses on the back of a weak US dollar and the ongoing supply crunch,” said CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng.

OPEC+ sources said the group will consider keeping oil output unchanged for September, but two OPEC+ sources also told Reuters a modest increase would be discussed.

A decision not to raise output would disappoint the United States after US President Joe Biden visited Saudi Arabia this month hoping to strike a deal on oil production.

A senior US administration official said on Thursday the government was optimistic about the OPEC+ meeting, and said extra supply would help stabilize the market.

Analysts, however, said it would be difficult for OPEC+ to boost supply much given that many producers are struggling to meet their production quotas due to a lack of investment in oil fields.

“OPEC production is constrained, though supplies are stabilizing in Libya and Ecuador. Under-investment in many member countries will keep production constrained,” ANZ Research analysts said.

(Reporting by Sonali Paul in Melbourne and Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell and Kim Coghill)

Gold set for best week in nearly 5 months on softer dollar

July 29 (Reuters) – Gold prices rose on Friday and were on course for their best week in nearly five months, as the US dollar extended its retreat in the wake of worrying US economic data.

Spot gold rose 0.5% to USD 1,766.08 per ounce by 0824 GMT. It has gained about 2.1% so far this week, the most since early-March.

US gold futures also rose 0.5% to USD 1,778.50.

Gold remains inversely correlated to the dollar and yields, rather than being a gold story in itself, OANDA senior analyst Jeffrey Halley said.

Despite an upbeat week for gold, it was still poised for a fourth consecutive monthly drop, its worst run of monthly losses since November 2020.

The dollar has spent most of July hovering around 20-year highs, hammering demand for greenback-priced gold among other currency holders.

Also weighing on bullion prices were top central banks adopting an aggressive approach to interest rate hikes and monetary policy tightening in their attempt to combat inflation, along with a strong showing from US Treasury yields earlier in July.

Higher rates lift bond yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

“Although bullion saw a sell-off below USD 1,700 (earlier this month), it is significant that long-term support at USD 1,675/80 was tested and held. Gold has been trying to form a bottom since,” Halley said.

The US economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, raising risks of an economic slowdown, which helped lift safe-haven gold’s prices by more than 1% on Thursday.

Spot silver firmed 0.2% to USD 20.02 per ounce, but is set for a monthly loss. Platinum rose 0.9% to USD 896.15.

Palladium eased 0.2% to USD 2,072.87, but has gained about 7% this month, its best since February.

(Reporting by Bharat Govind Gautam in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Vinay Dwivedi)

Wall Street ends up sharply for 2nd day; Amazon.com, Apple jump after hours

NEW YORK, July 28 (Reuters) – US stocks on Thursday rallied for a second day, with all three major indexes ending up more than 1% as data showing a second consecutive quarterly contraction in the economy fueled investor speculation the Federal Reserve may not need to be as aggressive with interest rate hikes as some had feared.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes retreated following the data, while utilities and real estate – both of which tend to rise when yields fall – were the day’s best-performing S&P 500 sectors.

The decline in yields may suggest “that markets think the Fed will have to pivot and move rates lower at some point, maybe in the next 12-month period,” said Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.

“It does imply the pace of tightening will become more gradual going forward.”

In addition, the growth forecast for second-quarter earnings has risen this week as more S&P 500 companies reported results and beat analyst expectations. Among them, Ford Motor Co F.N shares jumped 6.1% after it reported a better-than-expected quarterly net income.

After the closing bell, Amazon.com (AMZN) shares shot up more than 12% as the online retailer reported quarterly sales that beat Wall Street estimates. Amazon.com ended the regular session up 1.1%. Shares of Apple (AAPL) were up more than 3% after hours following the company’s quarterly report and upbeat forecast, and S&P 500 e-mini futures were up 2% late.

Early in the day, the US Commerce Department said the American economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter – the second straight quarterly decline in gross domestic product (GDP) reported by the government.

The news increased the possibility that the economy was on the cusp of a recession, and some investors said it might deter the Fed from continuing to aggressively increase rates as it battles high inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 332.04 points, or 1.03%, to 32,529.63 the S&P 500 gained 48.82 points, or 1.21%, to 4,072.43 and the Nasdaq Composite added 130.17 points, or 1.08%, to 12,162.59.

The Nasdaq registered its biggest two-day percentage gain since May 27.

Stocks had rallied in the previous session when the Fed raised rates and comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell eased some worries about the pace of rate hikes.

“More investors are getting in now because they think at least there’s not going to be any big surprises over the balance of the summer,” as far as rates are concerned, said Alan Lancz, president of Alan B. Lancz & Associates Inc, an investment advisory firm based in Toledo, Ohio.

The Fed on Wednesday raised the benchmark overnight rate by three-quarters of a percentage point. The move followed a 75 basis points hike last month and smaller moves in May and March, in an effort by the US central bank to tamp down soaring inflation.

Investors have expressed concern that inflation and aggressive Fed rate hikes could at some point tip the economy into a recession.

Among declining stocks, Facebook and Instagram parent Meta Platforms Inc. (META) fell 5.2% after it posted its first-ever quarterly drop in revenue.

Volume on US exchanges was 11.21 billion shares, compared with the 10.86 billion–share average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.56-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.66-to-1 ratio favored advancers.

The S&P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and 31 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 67 new highs and 97 new lows.

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)

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