Dollar regains strength as Powell dashes hope of a Fed pause

NEW YORK, Nov 2 (Reuters) – The dollar regained some strength on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it was premature to discuss a pause in its hiking of interest rates to battle rising consumer prices, as there is “no sense that inflation is coming down.”

The Fed, as markets had expected, raised its key lending rate by 75 basis points for the fourth straight time after a two-day meeting of policy-makers.

Markets initially read the Fed’s statement at the end of the meeting as dovish and a signal that future rate increases to tame high inflation could be made in smaller increments.

Yet Powell made clear at the press conference after the statement that a mistake in not tightening monetary policy enough would risk dealing with entrenched inflation.

“If you undertighten, it is a year or two down the road you realize you haven’t got inflation under control,” he said.

A change in pace in rate hikes could come at the Fed’s next meeting in December, Powell said. But he cautioned extensive uncertainty remains about how high rates need to go and that they could end up higher than policymakers previously thought.

“There are still a lot of missing pieces in terms of Fed policy and where the dollar goes from here because we’re going to have a pair of jobs reports and inflation surveys before we next hear from the Fed,” said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington.

Equities and other risk assets at first rose after the Fed statement was released, but stocks on Wall Street closed sharply lower after Powell spoke, as hopes the Fed would ease its hiking campaign quickly dissipated.

“We have not seen a pivot, a pivot is looking further over the horizon,” Manimbo said.

“The near-term outlook calls for the dollar staying strong and resilient because even if the Fed is nearing the finish line for rate hikes, it’s not expected to pivot to rate cuts for a very long time yet,” he said.

The euro initially rose against the dollar but later turned lower, down 0.5% at USD 0.9825. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.31% versus the greenback at 147.79 per dollar.0.3

The Fed’s battle against inflation running at four-decade highs has unleashed the most aggressive hiking campaign in more than a decade.

Future markets were divided on how high the Fed will increase rates at its next meeting on Dec. 13-14. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed a 56.8% probability of a 50 basis point increase, and a 43.2% chance of a 75 bps increase.

Growing expectations that the Fed would dial down the aggressiveness of its rate hikes have weighed on the dollar in recent weeks.

Sterling fell, last down 0.82% on the day at USD 1.1389. The Bank of England on Thursday also is expected to announce a 75-basis-point rate increase.

The yen has slipped about 22% against the dollar this year, leading traders to be on alert for a possible intervention.

Japanese authorities are widely considered to have intervened in FX markets several times since September to pull the yen back from 32-year lows.

Japan’s currency interventions have been stealth operations in order to maximize the effects of its forays into the market, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday, after the government spent a record USD 43 billion supporting the yen last month.

(Reporting by Herbert Lash, additional reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed in New York and Joice Alves in London; Editing by Mark Potter, Alex Richardson, Leslie Adler, William Maclean)

Wall Street drops as Powell signals Fed not close to done

NEW YORK, Nov 2 (Reuters) – US stocks ended sharply lower on Wednesday, as comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell shattered initial optimism over a Fed policy statement that raised interest rates by 75 basis points but signaled that smaller rate hikes may be on the horizon.

In a volatile trading session, equities initially moved higher in the wake of the hike by the Fed, the fourth straight increase from the central bank of that magnitude as it attempts to bring down stubbornly high inflation.

The target federal funds rate was set in a range between 3.75% and 4.00%, but the impact of the hike was initially tempered by new language that suggested the central bank was mindful of the effect its outsized rate hikes have had on the economy.

Investors had been widely anticipating a 75-basis point rate hike, while hoping the Fed would signal a willingness to begin downsizing the rate hikes at its December meeting.

However, comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that it was “very premature” to be thinking about pausing rate hikes sent stocks sharply lower.

“It is one speech, maybe it is a moment of frustration. I don’t think he should have done it the way he did this. But I understand why he did it, and in the big picture of things, he is doing the right thing right now,” said Stephen Massocca, senior vice president at Wedbush Securities in San Francisco.

“Ultimately this will be good for the economy and good for the market.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 505.44 points, or 1.55%, to 32,147.76, the S&P 500 lost 96.41 points, or 2.50%, to 3,759.69 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 366.05 points, or 3.36%, to 10,524.80.

After a strong rally in October that saw the Dow Industrials post their biggest monthly percentage gain since 1976 and the S&P rally about 8%, the three major indexes on Wall Street have no fallen for three straight session. Wednesday’s decline was the largest percentage drop for the S&P 500 since October 7.

The S&P 500 had been modestly lower prior to the policy announcement, as the ADP National Employment report showed US private payrolls increased more than expected in October, giving more reason to the Fed to continue an aggressive path of rate hikes.

The private payrolls report came on the heels of data on Tuesday that showed a jump in US monthly job openings, indicating labor demand remained strong.

Investors will get more looks at the labor market in the form of weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday and the October payrolls report on Friday that will help drive expectations for interest rate hikes.

Volume on US exchanges was 12.80 billion shares, compared with the 11.57 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 3.38-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.81-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and 20 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 108 new highs and 203 new lows.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)

Gold slips after Powell dashes hopes on Fed rate hike pause

Nov 2 (Reuters) – Gold turned negative on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on Wednesday that it was premature to discuss pausing rate hikes, after prices jumped over 1% as the US central bank signalled future interest rate increases could be made smaller.

Spot gold fell 0.5% to USD 1,640.05 per ounce by 3:45 p.m. EDT (1945 GMT). US gold futures settled up 0.02% at USD 1,650 ahead of the Fed decision.

Prices had jumped over 1% after the Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points, as widely expected, but signaled future increases in borrowing costs could be made in smaller steps to account for the “cumulative tightening of monetary policy” it has enacted so far.

Later, Powell cautioned against any sense the central bank will soon move to the sidelines with interest rate rises. “It is very premature to be thinking about pausing.”

Fed Chair Powell de-emphasizing speed yet stating that it was premature to consider a pause set a fairly hawkish tone for the presser, said Tai Wong, a senior trader at Heraeus Precious Metals in New York.

“Powell is giving the Fed the option of decelerating to 50 bps but preventing a mad market rally by emphasizing how high rates will be and how long they will stay there while taking the focus off the speed of rate hikes.”

Gold is highly exposed to interest rates, as higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

The dollar index and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rebounded after Powell’s comments.

Gold prices will average USD 1,712.50 an ounce next year, per a Reuters poll, rising from current levels.

Elsewhere, spot silver fell 1.6% to USD 19.3 per ounce, after climbing to a three-week peak on Tuesday.

Platinum dipped 0.7% to USD 936.28, while palladium slipped 1.3% to USD 1,856.50.

Analysts and traders downgraded their forecasts for platinum and palladium prices next year, according to a Reuters poll.

(Reporting by Seher Dareen and Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber and Diane Craft)

US SEC proposes new liquidity, pricing rules for mutual funds

Nov 2 (Reuters) – The US Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday proposed new rules aimed at better preparing the mutual fund industry for distressed market conditions, including a new pricing mechanism that has drawn opposition from fund managers.

The market disruptions of March 2020 reinforced the fact that liquidity can deteriorate rapidly, said the SEC, which adopted the proposal in a 3-2 vote.

“In times of stress, when many investors may redeem their shares in a fund at once, a fund might need to sell less-liquid securities quickly to generate cash,” SEC Chair Gary Gensler said. “When done in volume, this can raise issues for investor protection, our capital markets, and the broader economy.”

The proposed rule would require mutual funds, and some exchange-traded funds, to ensure that at least 10% of their net assets are highly liquid.

The new requirements would also demand a hard daily closing time for mutual funds, and the use of “swing pricing,” which involves adjusting a fund’s value in line with trading activity so redeeming investors bear the costs of exiting without diluting remaining investors.

The rules could have a big impact on how retirement savings are handled. Mutual funds managed USD 4.1 trillion, or 63%, of assets held in 401(k) plans at the end of June, as well as USD 5.1 trillion, or 43%, of IRA assets, according to the Investment Company Institute.

The group, which represents top asset managers, criticized Wednesday’s proposal. Chief executive officer Eric Pan said it could cause an “enormous negative impact” on Americans who invest in such funds, which are already “highly liquid” products.

The plan will be open for comment before being finalized.

Asset managers have also pushed back against an SEC proposal from December that would implement swing pricing for money market funds, arguing it would be operationally challenging, impose excessive costs on fund sponsors, and reduce daily liquidity for investors, potentially killing off some popular products.

Separately, the SEC voted 3-2 in favor of adopting new rules aimed at enhancing the reporting of proxy votes by registered management investment companies and the reporting of executive compensation votes by institutional investment managers.

Funds will now have to categorize the votes in a consistent manner and disclose the number of shares voted for proxy cards filed with the SEC. Investment managers will also have to report how they voted on proxies related to executive compensation, or “say on pay” votes.

(Reporting by John McCrank in New York and Chris Prentice in Washington; Editing by Matthew Lewis, Kirsten Donovan)

Asian equities receive meagre inflows in October amid recession worries

Nov 2 (Reuters) – Asian equities saw meagre inflows in October after massive selling in the previous month, and analysts expect fears of a global recession and a stronger US dollar to weigh on near-term money flows into the region.

Data from stock exchanges in Taiwan, India, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea showed foreigners bought equities worth a net USD 53 million last month. In September, they had sold shares worth a net USD 8.8 billion.

Last month, the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares fell 1.97%, compared with the MSCI World’s 6% gain.

“Headwinds to Asia intensified owing to enhanced US curbs on Chinese companies sourcing US technology and continued doubts about China’s economic recovery,” said Manishi Raychaudhuri, head of APAC equity research at BNP Paribas.

South Korea received the highest inflow of USD 2.1 billion, while Indonesia and Thailand got USD 729 million and USD 196 million, respectively. Taiwanese equities witnessed a huge outflow of USD 2.9 billion.

Destocking in the information and communication technology sector is massive, hitting many Taiwanese companies in the semiconductor sector, said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis.

Vietnam, the Philippines, and India also faced outflows last month.

“Flows into Asia, especially North Asia, remain challenging in the face of DM (Developed market) recession concerns and a strengthening USD,” said BNP’s Raychaudhuri.

“Both drivers are likely to sustain in the near term.”

(Reporting by Gaurav Dogra and Patturaja Murugaboopathy in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

Oil prices gain by tight supply; other risk assets swoon on Fed rate hike

NEW YORK, Nov 2 (Reuters) – Oil prices rose on Wednesday, gaining ground even as other risk assets dropped following the Federal Reserve’s fourth interest rate hike of the year.

The market was supported by another decline in US oil inventories as refineries picked up activity ahead of the winter heating season.

The oil market held its rally even as stocks fell and the dollar rallied after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it was premature to think about pausing rate increases.

Brent crude settled up USD 1.51, or 1.6%, to USD 96.16 while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled up USD 1.63, or 1.8%, to USD 90 on the nose. The gains did ebb after settlement.

The US Federal Reserve boosted interest rates by 75 basis points to bring down consumer inflation that has reached a four-decade high, though the central bank signaled future increases may be in smaller increments.

So far, the Fed’s moves have not affected the strong labor market, though its actions operate with a lagged effect.

Powell suggested it was premature to think about ending the interest-rate increases. Wall Street quickly gave back its gains, while the Treasury market also fell, boosting yields.

Oil held firm, a signal of worries about global energy supply. US crude oil stocks fell about 3.1 million barrels on the week, according to federal data. Gasoline inventories while distillate stocks rose only marginally ahead of the key heating season, when demand is expected to pick up.

“There’s definitely a lot of focus on supply/demand fundamentals and inventories which we saw on the (EIA) release today, and about when the Russia sanctions kick in,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth US.

The European Union’s embargo on Russian oil is set to start on Dec. 5. The ban, a reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, will be followed by a halt on oil product imports in February. It is expected to limit Russia’s ability to ship crude and products worldwide, and therefore could tighten the market.

Output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) fell in October for the first time since June, in addition to pumping 1.36 million barrels per day below its targets.

US inventories remain low across most products, worrying analysts who believe that the impending end of releases from US strategic reserves will remove a source of supply that will further tighten markets.

“Every week that goes by, the US is drawing hydrocarbon inventories, and that leads to the question of where does the industry turn when there are no more supplies from strategic petroleum reserve releases,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston.

(Reporting by David Gaffen; additional reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio)

Dollar’s retreat temporary, likely to reclaim recent highs

BENGALURU, Nov 2 (Reuters) – The dollar’s retreat in foreign exchange markets is temporary, according to a Reuters poll of currency strategists, who said the greenback still had enough strength left to reclaim or surpass its recent highs and resume its relentless rise.

Up around 16.0% for the year, the dollar has come off an over-two-decade peak it hit in September, as the US Federal Reserve, which powered the currency’s rally, was expected to be nearing the end of its interest rate tightening cycle.

The Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday, its fourth jumbo increase in a row. However, for the December meeting interest rate futures showed a split on the odds of a 75 or 50 basis point increase.

Over a two-thirds majority of analysts, 30 of 44, who answered an additional question in a Reuters Oct. 28-Nov. 1 poll said the dollar would either reclaim its recent highs (22) or move past them by end-year (8). The remaining 14 said it would fall from its current levels.

“Everybody’s talking about a pivot, whether or not after we get this week’s meeting over and done with the Fed will be able to move by less. But I fail to see that as being a factor which is going to significantly undermine the dollar,” said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.

Foley also said investors need to get into riskier currencies for the dollar to weaken significantly and added “as long as the Fed is still hiking, even by small increments, I don’t think that environment would be there.”

The poll also showed most emerging market currencies, which have hit their lowest levels in at least a decade, were expected to remain around those levels or sink deeper over the remainder of the year and into early next.

While the dollar was expected to remain defiantly strong in the near-term, the 12-month outlook was still for the currency to cede some ground to its peers.

“We still see the dollar as toppish, which doesn’t mean that it couldn’t go up another percent or two – which likely means going up a couple of percent against some currencies and maybe being flatter or even falling against some others,” said Steve Englander, head of G10 FX strategy at Standard Chartered.

The euro EUR=, down over 13% against the dollar and less than 1% away from its worst annual performance since the currency’s inception in 1999, was expected to remain under pressure over the next three months.

The common currency, which has mostly traded below parity against the dollar since August, was forecast to stay there over the next three months and to trade at an equal footing against the greenback only in six months.

It was then expected to climb higher to trade around USD 1.04 in a year.

Those six and 12-month median forecasts were a slight upgrade from the October poll and the first since April.

The Japanese yen, down nearly 22% for the year, was expected to claw back about half of this year’s historical losses over the next 12 months. It was expected to trade around 146.0, 141.7 and 135.0 per dollar over the next three, six and 12 months respectively.

Sterling, which has gained over 10% since sinking to a record low of USD 1.0327 in September amid political turmoil, was forecast to be another 2.0% stronger at USD 1.17 in a year. Predictions ranged from USD 1.06 to USD 1.29.

(Reporting by Hari Kishan; Polling by Sujith Pai and Prerana Bhat, Editing by William Maclean)

US recap: EUR/USD rebound halts on US data, Fed and risk rethinks

Nov 1 (Reuters) – The dollar index rebounded on Tuesday from an early 0.75% loss to modest gains after US data lifted Fed hike expectations before Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and key data later in the week.

Fed hike pricing rose to an implied terminal rate above 5% and 10-year Treasury yields rebounded 16bp from their lows mostly due a surprise rise on September job openings to 10.717 million versus 10.000 forecast and August’s upwardly revised 10.280 million.

Though not very timely, the data suggests the labor market was much tighter than expected, with job openings 42% higher than their pre-pandemic record highs.

The ISM manufacturing index dipped to 50.2 from 50.9 versus 50.2 forecast. New orders and employment indexes improved, though dives in the prices and supplier deliveries pointed to less inflation pressure.

Far more important will be broader ISM non-manufacturing out Thursday and forecast at 55.3 from 56.7.

September construction spending was up 0.2% against -0.5% forecast.

The earlier haven dollar selloff was greased by risk-on flows due to unsubstantiated rumors China might look into revamping its zero-COVID policies next year.

The early slide in Treasury yields was both a correction of big yield rises into month-end and on hopes the Fed will ease off the brakes after a fourth 75bp hike Wednesday. But October’s huge rebound in equities and little progress in loosening the tight labor market or inflation may dim those hopes.

EUR/USD fell 0.1% after hitting its lowest since last Tuesday. Record high euro zone inflation prompted ECB President Christine Lagarde to tout rate hikes, but the 2.84% implied ECB rates ceiling looks timid versus 10.7% inflation.

USD/JPY recovered most of its early losses egged on by intervention angst, but may need fairly hawkish Fed guidance to do battle with the MoF near 150.

Sterling was flat after the dollar’s rebound. The BoE’s small, inaugural QT was well received ahead of the 75bp hike expected at Thursday’s MPC meeting.

(Editing by Burton Frierson; Randolph Donney is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Gold rises over 1% in run-up to Fed rate announcement

Nov 1 (Reuters) – Gold rose over 1% on Tuesday as the US dollar and bond yields slipped from session highs, with the focus turning to a key Federal Reserve announcement for cues on whether it would scale back or retain its aggressive stance on interest rates hikes.

Spot gold rose 0.9% to USD 1,647.24 per ounce by 3:14 p.m. ET (1914 GMT), going as high as USD 1,696.94 earlier in the session. US gold futures settled up 0.6% at %1,649.70.

“Gold is in a position here where it’s keeping a good chunk of today’s gains going into the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee meeting),” said Edward Moya, senior analyst with OANDA.

“The labor market is going to cool, it’s just not happening as quickly as people thought and that should keep the Fed’s path to slowing rate hikes in place – it might not be in December, but it probably will be at that February meeting.”

The dollar index pulled back from its one-week peak.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also slipped on speculation that the Fed might signal a slower pace of policy tightening this week, even as it is expected to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points.

Gold is highly sensitive to rising rates as they increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding bullion.

Prices have declined about 21% since rising past the USD 2,000 per ounce level in March, due to rapid rate hikes from the Fed.

“We continue to believe that gold will ultimately break below the USD 1,600 per ounce mark, but I think for now there is probably bit of resistance around USD 1,675-USD 1,680,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity markets strategy at TD Securities.

Meanwhile, spot silver rose 2.6% to USD 19.64 per ounce, after hitting a three-week peak.

Platinum climbed 2.2% to USD 945.93, while palladium advanced 2.3% to USD 1,883.13.

(Reporting by Seher Dareen, Swati Verma and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva and Shinjini Ganguli)

Why is the Bank of England selling government bonds?

LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) – The Bank of England passed a major milestone on Tuesday when it held its first auction to sell some of the 875 billion pounds (USD 1.01 trillion) of government bonds it bought during successive quantitative easing (QE) programs from 2009-2021.

Britain’s central bank is the first in the Group of Seven rich nations to actively sell QE bonds to investors.

It has been reducing its holdings of British government bonds, known as gilts, bought under QE since February, when the BoE said it would no longer buy new gilts to replace those which matured. Total holdings have since fallen to 838 billion pounds.

The US Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada have adopted similar policies, sometimes known as passive quantitative tightening (QT), to help shed bonds accumulated during years of stimulus to support crisis-hit economies.

WHAT IS THE BOE DOING NOW?

The BoE sold 750 million pounds of British government bonds with a remaining maturity of three to seven years at its first gilt auction on Tuesday, receiving solid demand from investors.

In August, the BoE said it wanted to reduce its total gilt holdings by 80 billion pounds over a 12-month period starting in late September. To achieve this, it said it would need to sell around 10 billion pounds of gilts every three months, in addition to not reinvesting the proceeds of maturing bonds.

A start to sales was delayed first by the postponement of September’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting after the death of Queen Elizabeth, and later by a chaotic sell-off in gilts triggered by then-Prime Minister Liz Truss’s plan for unfunded tax cuts.

The market turmoil forced the BoE to intervene and buy 19 billion pounds of long-dated and inflation-linked gilts in an emergency program that ran until Oct. 14.

The BoE will now hold eight gilt auctions this year, totaling 6 billion pounds of sales and including gilts with a maturity of up to 20 years.

It had originally aimed to sell 8.7 billion pounds of gilts this year, including some with a maturity of over 20 years – the type hit hardest by a fire sale of assets by pension funds following the Truss government’s Sept. 23 “mini-budget”.

The BoE says it still intends to reduce total gilt holdings by the 80 billion pounds announced in August. Policymakers will review the pace of sales annually.

WHY IS THE BOE SELLING GILTS?

British government bonds have a longer average maturity than those issued by other countries, so the BoE has to sell gilts to achieve the same pace of balance sheet reduction that other central banks would get by simply allowing their bonds to mature.

More broadly, QE was always intended to be temporary and Governor Andrew Bailey has been keen to reverse some of the purchases, especially after BoE gilt holdings doubled during the wave of QE purchases in the COVID-19 pandemic.

At its peak in December 2021, the BoE owned roughly half of all conventional British government bonds in issue.

The BoE does not intend to fully reverse QE, because regulatory changes since the 2008 financial crisis mean banks need to hold more cash than before. It has not set a long-term target for gilt holdings.

Reversing QE may help fight inflation, to the extent it pushes up borrowing costs and gives the government, business and the public less money to spend on other things.

However, the BoE says raising interest rates is its main tool for controlling inflation, because the impact is better understood than that of QT.

WHAT EFFECT WILL SELLING GILTS HAVE?

The BoE aims for QT to have relatively little impact on gilt prices and borrowing costs.

It sees the impact of QE and QT as depending heavily on financial market conditions – pushing borrowing costs up or down significantly if carried out at scale during times of market turmoil, but having little impact if done gradually while markets are calm.

The BoE’s 6 billion pounds of sales come alongside 37 billion pounds of gilt issuance by the government over the same period.

Bond strategists have questioned how strong demand will be, as gilt prices have slumped this year, and some investors suggested the central bank would be wiser to postpone sales until 2023.

Strategists at Citi noted that long-dated gilts prices rallied relative to those for shorter-dated gilts after the BoE announced on Oct. 18 that it would exclude them from its purchases this year.

The overall past effect of QE on the economy has been difficult to measure, and it is especially hard to separate the effect of actions by the BoE from spillovers from bond purchases by the Fed and the European Central Bank.

In broad terms, QE pushed down borrowing costs for medium or longer-term periods, slightly raised inflation and probably led to somewhat lower unemployment and faster growth than otherwise.

The BoE also emphasized the need for QE to stabilize markets at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Critics say QE played a major role in pushing up house prices and stock markets for more than a decade, worsening inequality. The BoE has said that without QE, consumer price inflation would have undershot its 2% target during the 2010s, and that unemployment would have been much higher at points.

(USD 1 = 0.8671 pounds)

(Reporting by David Milliken; Editing by Catherine Evans)

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