US yields lower as investors look to payrolls data after Fed meeting

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields slipped on Thursday as investors settled into a wait-and-see stance ahead of a monthly employment report next week that is expected to offer clearer signals on labor market momentum and the likely pace of interest rate cuts in 2026.

Market participants also expect an agreement to negotiate new restrictions on US federal immigration agents, potentially averting a government shutdown over the weekend.

In late afternoon trading, the yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note fell 1.2 basis points to 4.235% and the 30-year bond yield was flat at 4.856%.

While the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday to hold rates unchanged had a muted impact on the Treasuries market overall, US central bank chief Jerome Powell expressed an upbeat view of economic conditions in the near term and also left the door open for further rate cuts during the year depending on incoming data.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 2 basis points, at 3.561%.

Investors are also banking on a potential deal in the US Senate that would carve out legislation funding the Department of Homeland Security from a package of spending measures required to fund the military, health programs and other federal agencies. Those agencies include the Department of Labor and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This outcome would mean that the BLS would be able to release the payrolls report for January next Friday. The BLS is also expected to release revisions to previous payrolls data.

The proximity to the end of the month is also expected to help the bond market through Friday, according to Tom di Galoma, managing director at Mischler Financial Group in Park City, Utah. “I expect some rotation from equities to fixed income in these last days.”

STEEPENING YIELD CURVE

The yield curve steepened earlier in the day, but ended the session flat compared to Wednesday. The gap between two- and 10-year Treasury notes hit 68.4 basis points before retreating to 67 basis points, the same level seen late on Wednesday.

Analysts said the dollar’s slide to multi‑year lows this week, along with a sharp rise in commodity prices, has helped steepen the curve over the last weeks. They added that these factors could continue to support further steepening in the coming months.

“We expect the gap between the two and the 10-year yields to hover between 60 and 70 points in the near term, but the curve can further steepen later in the year”, said Vail Hartman, US rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets.

Speculation on a potential US military attack on Iran pushed oil prices to their highest levels in six months, and the price of copper reached a record high on Thursday.

Markets are keeping an eye on the announcement of a nominee to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chief when his term ends in May. Investors are scrutinizing the candidates to try to gauge their willingness to keep the Federal Reserve’s independence.

Also on Thursday, the Treasury auctioned USD 44 billion in seven-year notes to lackluster results. It was priced at 4.018%, slightly higher than the expected yield at the bid deadline, suggesting soft demand. The auction yield was higher than the six-auction average of 3.912%, according to BMO’s numbers.

(Reporting by Tatiana Bautzer; Editing by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss, Paul Simao, and Deepa Babington)

Gold nears USD 5,600/oz as investors seek safety, silver eyes USD 120

Spot gold extended its record-breaking rally on Thursday, edging closer to the USD 5,600-per-ounce level as investors sought safety amid geopolitical and economic strains, while silver came within a whisker of breaching the USD 120 mark.

Spot gold was up 2.1% at USD 5,511.79 an ounce, as of 0039 GMT, after hitting a record USD 5,591.61 earlier in the day.

“Rising government debt burdens, geopolitical concerns and policy unpredictability have accelerated a structural re-rating of gold’s role in portfolios,” analysts at OCBC said in a note.

“Gold is no longer just a crisis hedge or an inflation hedge; it is increasingly viewed as a neutral, and a reliable store of value asset that also provides diversification across a wider range of macro regimes.”

Prices jumped past the USD 5,000 mark for the first time on Monday and have gained more than 10% so far this week, driven by a cocktail of factors including strong safe‑haven demand, firm central bank buying and a weaker dollar. USD/

“Although the parabolic nature of the rally suggests a pullback is not far away, the underlying fundamentals are expected to remain supportive throughout 2026, positioning any dips as attractive buying opportunities,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.

In geopolitical news, US President Donald Trump urged Iran on Wednesday to come to the table and strike a deal on nuclear weapons, warning that any future US attack would be far more severe. Tehran responded with a threat to strike back against the US, Israel and those who support them.

On the US policy front, the Federal Reserve decided to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday, as widely expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said inflation in December was likely still well above the central bank’s 2% target.

Gold has gained more than 27% this year following a 64% jump in 2025.

On Thursday, prices also drew support from crypto group Tether’s plans to allocate 10%–15% of its investment portfolio to physical gold.

Meanwhile, with elevated gold prices, customers have been cramming into stores in Shanghai and Hong Kong that sell the precious metal, with some betting it could rise even further.

Spot silver was up 1.3% at USD 118.061 an ounce after hitting a record high of USD 119.34 earlier. Prices have been helped by demand from investors looking for cheaper alternatives to gold, along with supply shortages and momentum buying. The white metal has jumped more than 60% so far this year.

“The silver market is forecast to deliver yet another deficit this year, but the real market tightness stems from the reduced availability of above ground stocks,” analysts at Standard Chartered said in a note.

Spot platinum rose 0.5% to USD 2,710.20 an ounce, after hitting a record high of USD 2,918.80 on Monday, while palladium fell 1.3% to USD 2,048.14.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Chris Reese, Shreya Biswas and Subhranshu Sahu)

Bessent says US has strong dollar policy, ‘absolutely not’ intervening to support yen

The US has a strong dollar policy and that means setting the right fundamentals, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday, while denying that Washington was intervening in currency markets to support the Japanese yen.

Asked on CNBC if the US was intervening to strengthen the yen, Bessent said, “Absolutely not.”

Pressed if that was something the US planned to do, Bessent said, “We don’t comment other than to say we have a strong dollar policy.”

Bessent’s remarks boosted the dollar’s value against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, sending it up from a four-year low touched in the prior session.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency’s strength against a basket of peers, rose 0.5% to 96.391. The index sank as low as 95.86 on Tuesday, its weakest since February 2022, after US President Donald Trump brushed off this month’s slide, emboldening dollar bears.

The dollar index is down nearly 2% for the year, after falling 9.4% last year.

Trump said on Tuesday the value of the dollar was “great”, when asked if he thought it had declined too much. Traders took this as a signal to intensify dollar selling, ahead of a Federal Reserve policy decision later on Wednesday.

The dollar has been under pressure due to uncertainty about US interest rates and tariffs, threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve and rising fiscal deficits.

Gold, a safe-haven asset that generally rises when the dollar weakens and does not yield interest, climbed on Wednesday, surpassing USD 5,300 per ounce for the first time.

Bessent expressed confidence that Trump’s tax and deregulation policies were making the US attractive for investors, bringing in trillions of dollars.

“Over time the prices on the screen can fluctuate over six months, a year,” Bessent said. “If we have sound policies the money will flow in, and we are bringing down our trade deficits so they, automatically that should lead to more dollar strength over time.”

Bessent repeated his forecast that the US economy would perform well this year, but said he was not worried about that growth triggering inflation.

Productivity and wage growth do not necessarily lead to higher inflation, he said, adding that declining rents could lead to drops in measured inflation in time.

(Reporting by Andrea Shalal and Susan Heavey; Editing by David Gregorio)

Gold vaults past USD 5,200 to record high

Gold surged above USD 5,200 an ounce on Wednesday to a record high, extending a historic rally as economic and geopolitical uncertainty drove demand for the safe-haven yellow metal.

(Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)

Trump triggers flight from US dollar

SINGAPORE – The dollar was on the ropes near multi-year lows on Wednesday after investors sold it aggressively when US President Donald Trump seemed to shrug off its recent decline, while Wall Street marched on to fresh record highs.

The dollar’s dive has hoisted the euro over USD 1.20 for the first time since 2021, sent the Australian dollar above 70 cents to a three-year high, and lifted gold and commodity prices, which are counted in dollars, sharply.

The ailing yen shot further away from recent lows, before trade steadied in the early hours of the Asia session.

“Dollar’s doing great,” Trump had replied when a reporter asked him if he thought it had fallen too much lately.

Ahead of the comment, the dollar had notched its biggest three-day drop since the fallout from last April’s tariff blitz, and markets were unnerved by Trump’s erratic Greenland diplomacy and signals that the US was willing to help Japan boost the yen.

“FX market participants are always looking for a trend to jump on,” said Steve Englander, head of global G10 currency research at Standard Chartered in New York.

“Often officials push back against abrupt currency moves, but when the President expresses indifference or even endorses the move it emboldens USD sellers to keep pushing.”

Last week the New York Federal Reserve checked prices for the dollar’s rate against the yen, a source told Reuters at the time, which the market took as a signal that US authorities wouldn’t mind and may even help if Japan pushed the yen higher.

A turbulent first year of Trump’s second term already had the dollar slide more than 9% in 2025 – the largest fall since 2017 – as his attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence, his spending, and foreign policy unsettled investors.

The weaker dollar helped gold strike a fresh record of USD 5,188.95 an ounce overnight and US crude to break through its 200-day moving average for the first time in six months to USD 62.54 a barrel.

Bitcoin has largely missed out on the rally and remains pinned below USD 90,000. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were a fraction higher in Tokyo at 4.237%.

On Wall Street, health insurers plunged as the Trump administration proposed a much smaller rise in government payouts to insurers than investors had expected.

The S&P 500, however, rose 0.4% to a record closing high, and futures inched 0.1% higher in Asia.

Around regional markets, Australian shares made small gains, South Korea’s KOSPI jumped 1.7% to a record high, and Japan’s Nikkei, which tends to move inversely to the yen, fell 0.7%.

(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Dollar sinks to four-year low as Trump brushes off the decline

NEW YORK – The US dollar extended losses to sink to a four-year low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, after President Donald Trump said the value of the dollar is “great” when asked whether he thought it had declined too much.

Trump made the comment to reporters in Iowa ahead of a speech expected to center on the economy, as he seeks to rally his stalwart rural supporters in a state that hosts key congressional races in November.

The comment weighed on the dollar, which had come under pressure in recent sessions as traders braced for a possible coordinated currency intervention by US and Japanese authorities.

Trump’s remark signals to the market that the US would prefer a weaker dollar, said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets.

“The market is happy to give it to them,” he said.

The dollar’s recent weakness stems from several factors, including Trump’s policymaking and concerns about Federal Reserve independence, analysts said.

In addition, disagreement between Republicans and Democrats over funding for the Department of Homeland Security after the fatal shooting of a second US citizen by federal immigration officers in Minnesota has raised concerns of another US government shutdown.

Trump accused South Korea’s legislature of “not living up” to its trade deal with Washington, and said late on Monday he would increase tariffs on imports from Asia’s fourth-biggest economy into the US, such as autos, lumbe,r and pharmaceuticals to 25%.

Trump has also, in recent days, said he would impose a 100% tariff on Canada if it follows through on a trade deal with China.

“We’ve already had some very sizable moves in the last few days… (Trump’s comment on the dollar) put gasoline on an already existing fire,” Bannockburn’s Chandler said.

‘TARIFF MAN’ SHOWS NO SIGN OF REGRETS

On Tuesday, the Korean won strengthened 1% against the dollar to 1,431.85 per dollar.

“With the ‘tariff man’ showing no sign of repentance and the US government headed into another shutdown, economic policy uncertainty is soaring once again, leading to an intensification in the ‘Sell America’ trade that has dominated markets for the better part of a year,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist with payments company Corpay in Toronto.

“Positive fundamentals should eventually reassert themselves, but for now, no one is willing to catch the falling chainsaw that is the US dollar,” he said.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar fell 1.4% to 95.77, its lowest since February 2022.

Investors will watch the Fed’s two-day meeting this week for clues to the path of monetary policy.

“The big risk, as we see it, is not in the rate decision. We’re pretty confident that the Fed is going to hold rates unchanged. But Trump is not going to like that,” said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex.

The president has been urging the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

Trump could announce his candidate for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s successor soon after the rate decision, especially if the president does not support the central bank’s decision, Rees said.

YEN INTERVENTION WATCH

Much of the foreign exchange market’s focus has been on the yen, which rallied by as much as 4% over the past two sessions on talk of the US and Japan conducting rate checks – often seen as a precursor to official intervention.

That helped the yen slip below 153 to the dollar. It was last trading at 152.23.

“While there are several potential culprits for the dollar’s drop, the main driver is the fallout from reports that the US Treasury is considering direct currency intervention,” Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.

While there has been no confirmation of rate checks from officials in Japan or the US, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters that the New York Federal Reserve had checked dollar/yen rates with dealers on Friday.

Japanese authorities said on Monday they have been in close coordination with the US on foreign exchange.

The euro rose 1.4% to USD 1.20375, trading above USD 1.20 for the first time since June 2021. Similarly, sterling added 1.2% to USD 1.3844, its strongest since September 2021.

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed in New York, Sophie Kiderlin in London, and Rae Wee in Singapore; additional reporting by Amanda Cooper in London; Editing by Timothy Heritage, Aidan Lewis, Barbara Lewis, and Sonali Paul)

Gold hits record above USD 5,100 as geopolitics drive safe‑haven rush

Gold prices marched to record levels above USD 5,100 on Monday, as investors sought a safe haven amid international political tension, and silver and platinum also scaled all-time highs.

Spot gold was up 2% at USD 5,077.22 an ounce by 1:31 p.m. ET (1831 GMT) after hitting a record USD 5,110.50. US gold futures for February delivery settled 2.1% higher at USD 5,082.50.

“Gold prices continue to be supported by elevated geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Central banks remain strong buyers as they diversify foreign exchange reserves and reduce reliance on the US dollar,” said Ryan McIntyre, president at Sprott Inc.

“In addition, investor inflows into physically backed exchange‑traded funds have resumed, with holdings up approximately 20% year over year,” McIntyre added.

TRUMP’S 100% TARIFF THREAT ON CANADA

In the latest geopolitical flare‑up, US President Donald Trump said on Saturday he would impose a 100% tariff on Canada if it follows through on a trade deal with China.

For precious metals this year, the major drivers are going to be “Trump and Trump,” said Adrian Ash, head of research at online marketplace BullionVault.

“A wave of new first-time investing is driving this move in precious metals. It’s led by private investors across Asia and Europe, rushing to build their personal holdings of gold and silver.”

The possibility that a coordinated currency intervention by US and Japanese authorities could be imminent was another focus of investor attention.

At the same time, this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, when the central bank is expected to hold rates steady, is overshadowed by a Trump administration criminal investigation of Fed chairman Jerome Powell.

Trump has placed pressure on Powell to lower interest rates.

That would support non-yielding gold, which has risen nearly 18% so far this year after gaining 64% in 2025.

Last year, gold breached major milestones, including USD 3,000/oz and USD 4,000/oz for the first time.

GOLD MAY REACH USD 6,000/OZ BY YEAR-END, SOME ANALYSTS SAY

Analysts see room for further upside momentum. Societe Generale anticipate gold will reach USD 6,000/oz by year‑end, though they caution this may be a conservative estimate with scope for further gains. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley said the rally could continue, highlighting a bull‑case target of USD 5,700.

Spot silver scaled a new record high of USD 117.69 an ounce and was last up 10.2% at USD 113.46. Prices broke the USD 100 mark on Friday as retail investor and momentum-driven buying added to tightness in physical markets for the precious and industrial metal.

“Momentum is strong, with Chinese silver prices at a notable premium to London prices, indicating further gains in the short term are possible. However, such high prices should reduce industrial demand,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Spot platinum rose by 1.8% to USD 2,816.38 an ounce after touching a record USD 2,918.80 while spot palladium climbed by 5.9% to USD 2,127.68, the highest levels since 2022.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Swati Verma; Editing by Barbara Lewis, Bernadette Baum, and Shailesh Kuber)

US government debt rises after 2-year note auction; Fed chair pick in focus

NEW YORK – US Treasuries rose on Monday, pushing yields lower, after strong demand for an auction of two-year notes reflected a still healthy appetite for dollar-denominated assets despite persistent fiscal strains and rising global tensions over trade and national security.

Treasury yields were already lower before the auction, in line with European global bond markets, particularly France and Germany. They further extended their fall following the auction. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

The benchmark US 10-year Treasury note fell 2.8 basis points (bps) to 4.211% while the yield on two-year Treasuries dipped 1.3 bps to 3.592%.

The two-year note auction was priced at 3.580%, lower than the expected rate at the bid deadline, indicating investor demand robust enough to accept a figure lower than what the market had anticipated.

The bid-to-cover ratio, another gauge of investor appetite, was 2.75, higher than the average of 2.61.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 62.3 basis points.

Monday’s data, meanwhile, was positive. New orders for key US-manufactured capital goods beat expectations in November, suggesting business spending on equipment maintained a steady growth pace in the fourth quarter.

The market, however, showed little reaction to the report with the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee widely expected to hold rates steady at its meeting this week in the 3.50% to 3.75% target range.

An auction of USD 70 billion in 5-year notes on Tuesday will also be closely watched.

“We don’t expect any big development coming from this week’s Fed meeting, with rates steady and no big shifts,” said Tom di Galoma, managing director at Mischler Financial Group in Park City, Utah.

CME’s FedWatch tool estimates more than a 97% chance of steady rates in the January meeting, with futures markets projecting a higher chance of another cut only in June.

POTENTIAL ANNOUNCEMENT ON FED CHAIR

Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets in New York, sees the potential announcement of President Donald Trump’s pick for the Federal Reserve chair as the event with the largest influence on Treasury markets this week.

BlackRock’s Rick Rieder seems to be the top contender for the job, as well as former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, according to Polymarket odds.

“Markets respect Rieder, he’s seen as a good candidate for the job,” Lyngen said, adding that investors would see Warsh or Rieder as good choices to keep the Federal Reserve independent. National Economic Council economist Kevin Hassett would be seen as a more political choice.

The call between Trump and Minnesota governor Tim Walz about immigration enforcement operations after a second fatal shooting by federal agents in Minneapolis also seemed to ease the risk of a potential partial US government shutdown ahead of a January 30 funding deadline.

Gold hit record above USD 5,100 on Monday as an array of geopolitical tensions pounded the dollar, while investors remained on tenterhooks about possible official buying of the yen after a series of surges in the Japanese currency.

(Reporting by Tatiana Bautzer; Editing by Alex Richardson and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss)

Oil prices settle lower as traders assess impact of winter storm on production

HOUSTON – Oil prices settled slightly lower on Monday after climbing more than 2% in the previous session as investors assessed the impact on output in US crude-producing regions from winter storms and the impact of any tensions between the US and Iran.

Brent crude futures closed down 29 cents, or 0.4%, at USD 65.59 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was down 44 cents, or 0.7%, at USD 60.63.

Both benchmarks notched weekly gains of 2.7% to close on Friday at their highest since January 14.

US oil producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day or roughly 15% of national production over the weekend, analysts and traders estimated, as a winter storm swept across the country, straining energy infrastructure and power grids.

Oil production outages peaked on Saturday, consultancy Energy Aspects estimated, with the Permian Basin likely to have experienced the largest share of that decline at around 1.5 million bpd. Production losses eased on Monday, with Permian shut-ins estimated at about 700,000 bpd and production set to be fully restored by January 30.

There were around two dozen reports of upsets at natural gas processing plants and compressor stations in Texas, according to regulatory filings over the weekend, but that paled in comparison to the more than 200 reported upsets during the first five days of a severe winter storm in 2021, TACenergy analysts said in a note on Monday.

Kazakhstan, meanwhile, was poised to resume production at its biggest oilfield, the energy ministry said on Monday, but industry sources said volumes were still low and a force majeure on CPC Blend exports was still in place.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which operates Kazakhstan’s main exporting pipeline, said on Sunday that its Black Sea terminal had returned to full loading capacity after maintenance was completed at one of its three mooring points.

Traders were also wary of geopolitical risks, analysts said, as tensions between the US and Iran kept investors on edge.

US President Donald Trump said last week that the US has an “armada” heading toward Iran but hoped he would not have to use it, renewing warnings to Tehran against killing protesters or restarting its nuclear programme.

On Friday, a senior Iranian official said Iran would treat any attack “as an all-out war against us”.

“All in all, crude remains in a holding type trade pattern until more is known about how the Trump Administration will handle Iran,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.

“Ukraine/Russian/US peace talks continuing, and OPEC stating they will likely stay the current course of production at their next meetings, remain the pressure points for prices,” Kissler added.

OPEC+ is expected to keep its pause on oil output increases for March at a meeting on Sunday, three OPEC+ delegates told Reuters.

US shale production could fall by as much as 400,000 barrels of oil per day in 2026 if OPEC countries try to increase market share and oil prices fall to as low as USD 40 a barrel, according to Rystad Energy CEO Jarand Rystad

(Reporting by Arathy Somasekhar in Houston, Stephanie Kelly, Florence Tan, and Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by Sharon Singleton, David Goodman, and Nia Williams)

Gold rushes past USD 5,000 to record high on safe-haven rush

Gold surged to a record high above USD 5,000 an ounce on Monday, extending a historic rally as investors piled into the safe-haven asset amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Spot gold rose 0.85% to USD 5,024.95 per ounce by 2341 GMT, while US gold futures for February delivery gained 0.91% to USD 5,024.60 per ounce.

Gold soared 64% in 2025, underpinned by sustained safe-haven demand, US monetary policy easing, robust central bank purchases – with China extending its gold-buying spree for a fourteenth month in December – and record inflows into exchange-traded funds. Prices have gained more than 16% this year.

“We expect further upside. Our current forecast suggests that prices will peak at around USD 5,500 later this year,” said Philip Newman, director at Metals Focus.

“Periodic pullbacks are likely as investors take profits, but we expect each correction to be short‑lived and met with strong buying interest,” Newman added.

Escalating friction between the United States and NATO over Greenland has added fresh momentum to gold’s advance this year on expectations of more financial and geopolitical uncertainty.

On the geopolitical front, Ukraine and Russia ended a second day of US-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi on Saturday without a deal, with more discussions expected next weekend, even as overnight Russian airstrikes knocked out power for over a million Ukrainians amid subzero cold.

Adding to the uncertainty, US President Donald Trump said on Saturday he would impose a 100% tariff on Canada if it follows through on a trade deal with China, warning Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney that a deal would endanger his country.

“Our forecast for the year is that gold will see a high of USD 6,400 an ounce with an average of USD 5,375,” independent analyst Ross Norman said.

Spot silver rose 1.72% to USD 104.72 per ounce. Spot platinum was steady at USD 2,767 per ounce, while spot palladium rose 0.17% to USD 2,013.50 per ounce.

Silver climbed above the USD 100 mark for the first time on Friday, building on its 147% rise last year as retail-investor flows and momentum-driven buying compounded a prolonged spell of tightness in physical markets for the metal.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil and Kavya Balaraman in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Pablo Sinha; Himani Sarkar, and Subhranshu Sahu)

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