US yields rise after better-than-expected manufacturing report

May 1 – US Treasury yields rose from three-week lows on Thursday after a better-than-expected manufacturing report for April, which also showed that tariffs on imported goods were straining supply chains and maintaining elevated prices for inputs.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that its manufacturing PMI dropped to a five-month low of 48.7 last month, beating economists’ forecasts for a drop to 48.

The survey’s measure of prices paid by manufacturers for inputs rose to 69.8, the highest level since June 2022.

“It’s cold comfort that the ISM Manufacturing index came in better than expected. It’s more like it came in less bad than expected. The collapse of production and new export orders along with an increase in domestic orders suggests that costs are rising and activity is falling. That’s not a great combination,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.

Traders are balancing the risks that tariffs implemented by US President Donald Trump will slow growth and increase inflation, with higher price pressures potentially delaying when the US Federal Reserve is likely to resume interest rate cuts.

“What we’ve heard from the FOMC so far is that they want to prioritize inflation expectations in any case where there’s lower growth and stubbornly high inflation,” said Will Compernolle, macro strategist at FHN Financial.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 58% likelihood of a rate cut in June, down from 68% earlier on Thursday, and only a 5% chance of a rate reduction at the Fed’s May 6-7 meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Yields fell to a more than three-week low earlier on Thursday after data showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week.

Friday’s employment report for April is expected to show that employers added 130,000 jobs during the month, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.

The labor market has remained relatively resilient, which has allowed the US central bank to keep interest rates on hold as it also watches for signs of a potential resurgence in inflation.

Yields surged early last month after Trump announced larger-than-expected tariffs on trading partners, but have fallen since he offered a 90-day pause on most tariff increases.

Traders are now focused on what deals will be reached between the United States and trading partners, and are watching for when the expected impact of the trade levies are seen in the “hard” economic data.

“If you exclude all of the sentiment surveys and the corporate earnings calls and what you would call anecdotal evidence, there’s nothing in the hard data flashing red that says the Fed has to cut rates right now. So, they’re waiting for any of these fears to channel into the hard data,” Compernolle said.

Trump said on Wednesday that he has “potential” trade deals with India, South Korea and Japan.

The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes was last up 5.6 basis points to 4.231% after earlier reaching 4.124%, the lowest since April 7.

The two-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 8.4 basis points to 3.705%. It earlier fell to 3.558%, also the lowest since April 7.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes flattened by around 3 basis points to 52 basis points.

(Reporting By Karen Brettell; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Freya Whitworth Hardcastle and Will Dunham)

Gold falls as trade tensions soften, US data on tap

Gold fell nearly 1% on Tuesday as signals of easing US-China trade tensions reduced some safe-haven demand, while investors braced for key economic data this week to gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

Spot gold was down 0.8% at USD 3,315.84 an ounce as of 2:22  pm ET (1822 GMT). US gold futures settled 0.4% lower at USD 3,333.6.

“There is some optimism that there will be some de-escalation of the trade war between the US and China,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

President Donald Trump’s administration plans to lessen the effect of auto tariffs by lowering taxes on foreign parts used in US-made cars and making sure imported cars are not hit with multiple tariffs, officials said.

Softening trade tensions have caused a sell-off in safe-haven gold, a traditional hedge against rising global instabilities, which had risen in an unprecedented rally to notch a record high at USD 3,500.05/oz last week.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that several top trading partners had made “very good” proposals to avoid US tariffs. China’s recent moves to exempt certain US goods from its retaliatory tariffs showed a willingness to de-escalate trade tensions, Bessent added.

Investors’ radar is now on a slew of important US economic data this week, including the personal consumption expenditures price index on Wednesday, and a monthly non-farm payrolls report on Friday.

“Looking at the key level in the near-term, USD 3,500 would be a fair level where you’re going to see people stepping in and starting to liquidate, which is normal ebb and flow of the market,” said Michael Matousek, head trader at US Global Investors.

“For quarter-end, we could probably see gold up at USD 3,590. For the year-end, I would put the forecast at USD 3,800 an ounce.”

Spot silver shed 0.4% to USD 33.02 an ounce, platinum eased about 1% to USD 976.50, and palladium fell 1.3% to USD 936.41.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil and Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru; Editing by Mohammed Safi Shamsi)

Oil prices fall 2% to 2-week low as trade war concerns dampen demand outlook

NEW YORK – Oil prices fell about 2% to a two-week low on Tuesday as investors braced for OPEC+ to boost output and worried US President Donald Trump’s tariffs would hit the global economy and slow demand for the fuel.

Brent crude futures fell by USD 1.61, or 2.4%, to settle at USD 64.25 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped by USD 1.63, or 2.6%, to settle at USD 60.42.

Both benchmarks posted the lowest settlement since April 10.

Trump’s aggressive tariffs on imports into the US have made it probable the global economy will slip into recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll.

China, hit with the steepest tariffs, has responded with its own levies against US imports, stoking a trade war between the top two oil-consuming nations. Analysts have sharply lowered their oil demand and price forecasts.

“Trade between China and the US has slowed to a semi-embargo type flow. Every day that passes without some kind of deal with any of our significant trade partners brings us one day closer to a global demand destruction situation,” Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho, said in a note.

The US trade deficit in goods widened to a record high in March as businesses ramped up efforts to bring in merchandise ahead of Trump’s sweeping tariffs, suggesting trade was a large drag on economic growth in the first quarter.

The fallout from Trump’s trade war reverberated through the corporate world on Tuesday, as delivery giant UPS UPS.N said it would cut 20,000 jobs to lower costs. Auto maker General Motors pulled its outlook and pushed its investor call to Thursday pending possible changes to trade policy.

Trump was set to soften the blow of his auto tariffs through an executive order mixing credits with relief from other levies on parts and materials, after automakers pressed their case with the administration.

UK oil major BP reported a deeper-than-expected 48% drop in net profit to USD 1.4 billion on weaker refining and gas trading.

The energy market awaits earnings from US oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron this week.

PRODUCTION RISING

Several members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies in OPEC+ will suggest an acceleration of output hikes for a second straight month in June, sources told Reuters last week.

“Another production hike from OPEC+ could not happen at a worse time when sentiment is already weak, and with Kazakhstan not showing much interest in reducing production,” said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.

OPEC+ member Kazakhstan increased oil exports by 7% year-on-year in January-March thanks to a supply boost via the Caspian pipeline, Reuters calculations based on official data and sources showed on Tuesday.

US OIL INVENTORIES

US oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute trade group was due on Tuesday and from the US EIA on Wednesday.

Analysts forecast energy firms added about 0.5 million barrels of oil to US stockpiles during the week ended April 25.

If correct, that would be the fifth weekly build in a row and compares with an increase of 7.3 million barrels during the same week last year and an average build of 3.2 million barrels over the past five years (2020-2024).

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York, Enes Tunagur in London and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by Sonali Paul, Saad Sayeed, Tomasz Janowski, Joe Bavier, Rod Nickel, and David Gregorio)

Yields fall to three-week low as economic data weakens

Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields fell for the sixth consecutive day to a three-week low on Tuesday after data showed that US job openings dropped sharply in March while consumer confidence hit an almost five-year low.

Job openings, a measure of labor demand, decreased 288,000 to 7.192 million by the last day of March, though a decline in layoffs suggested that the labor market remained on solid footing.

US consumer confidence slumped in April as growing concerns over tariffs weighed on the economic outlook.

“The data just generally is getting weaker,” said Tom di Galoma, managing director at Mischler Financial Group. “That’s one of the main reasons why the markets are pointing towards lower rates.”

Investors are focused on data this week for guidance on the health of the economy, with weaker readings likely boosting bets that the Federal Reserve is closer to cutting rates.

Friday’s jobs report for April is expected to show that employers added 130,000 jobs during the month. The advance estimate of gross domestic product for the first quarter due on Wednesday is also expected to show a sharp slowdown to 0.3%, from 2.4% in the fourth quarter.

The US trade deficit in goods widened to a record high in March as businesses ramped up efforts to bring in merchandise ahead of Trump’s tariffs, suggesting trade was a large drag on economic growth in the first quarter.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 65% odds of an interest rate cut by June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Fed officials are in a blackout period ahead of the May 6-7 meeting, when traders see only an 8% chance of a rate cut.

Falling commodity prices, including oil, may also make it more likely that the US central bank is closer to cutting rates.

“Oil is dropping and commodities just generally seem to be dropping, and I think that that’s a favorable outlook for inflation,” di Galoma said.

The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes was last down 3.5 basis points at 4.181%, the lowest since April 8.

The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 2.1 basis points to 3.664% and reached 3.648%, the lowest since April 7.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes was last at 51.5 basis points.

Market participants remain nervous about the impact of tariffs, though the market has stabilized from a sharp selloff earlier this month after US President Donald Trump announced larger than expected levies on trading partners.

Most of these increases have been delayed until July 9, and investors are hopeful that the US will reach trade deals before the pause period lapses.

Trump will sign an order on Tuesday giving automakers building vehicles in the US relief from part of his new 25% vehicle tariffs to allow them time to bring parts supply chains back home, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said.

Lutnick also said that Trump’s administration has reached one trade deal already and is waiting for approvals from that country before announcing it.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that China could lose 10 million jobs quickly due to tariffs and that Beijing will see over time that Chinese tariffs are not sustainable.

The Treasury is expected to keep auction sizes steady when it announces its refunding plans for the coming quarter on Wednesday. Traders will focus on any guidance about future auction size increases.

(Reporting By Karen Brettell; Editing by Tomasz Janowski and Will Dunham)

US yields slip further ahead of heavy data slate

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields eased to near three-week lows on Monday, marking the half-way unwind from this month’s bond rout as a dearth of new tariff news allowed investors to zero in on impending economic data, crowned by Friday’s payrolls report.

Trading was more muted than in recent weeks of high volatility, when US President Donald Trump sent Treasuries tumbling and benchmark yields up about 70 basis points amid fear that his erratic announcements on import levies made dollar-based assets less secure, and US and global economic growth less assured.

With month-end on Wednesday, along with the first read on first quarter gross domestic product and the personal consumption expenditures price index, traders look loath to take any unnecessary risk. Other labor market data is also sprinkled through the week, in the run-up to Friday’s all-important April employment release.

“Generally, the data isn’t likely to show a full-blown collapse, but it will continue to keep investors nervous that growth is slowing,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities, New York.

The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note fell to its lowest since April 8, and in late trade was off 3.9 basis points from Friday afternoon at 4.227%.

There have been not-entirely-convincing signs that the US and China could be willing to de-escalate trade tensions.

Competing claims on the state of negotiations from Beijing and Trump highlighted the uncertainties facing investors seeking to navigate Trump’s upending of world trade.

HIGH RISK OF RECESSION

The week also marks 100 days since Trump took office and began his assault on trade, and confidence in America. Despite an initial rally in equities after his election in November, the S&P 500 has declined about 5% since then, and fallen more than 10% from February’s record high as markets assess the potential impact of tariffs.

Bonds had a wild ride, too, as investors reconsidered US market supremacy. The 10-year yield rose from a low of 3.86% on April 4, two days after Trump’s ill-received “Liberation Day” tariff unveiling, to 4.592% a week later. It has now fallen 36 of those 73 bps.

A majority of economists polled by Reuters said the risk of the global economy slipping into recession this year was high. But Trump’s tariff rollercoaster has made the Federal Reserve’s job even harder, given prospects for inflation to rise away from its 2% target even if growth slows.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets next week, with futures traders betting that it will, starting in June, lower rates by 25 basis points at least four times this year from the current range of 4.25%-4.50%, where the policy rate has stood since December.

While the auction calendar is light this week, the US Treasury released its borrowing estimates for April through June and July through September late on Monday, in advance of announcing its refunding plans across maturities on Wednesday morning.

The Treasury expects to borrow USD514 billion in the second quarter, USD391 billion higher than its February estimate.

The yield on the 30-year bond eased 3.5 bp to 4.703%.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 52.7 basis points about 4.5 bp steeper than Friday.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 6.3 bp to 3.699%, plumbing its lowest since April 9.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.324% after closing at 2.331% on April 25.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.25%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.3% a year for the next decade, higher than the Fed’s target.

(Editing by Kevin Liffey and Nick Zieminski)

Brent crude oil prices drop on demand fears

HOUSTON – Brent crude oil prices fell more than USD 1 a barrel on Monday morning as economic worries from the US-China trade war were pressuring demand.

Brent crude futures settled at USD 65.86 a barrel, down USD 1.01, or 1.51%. US West Texas Intermediate crude finished at USD 62.05 a barrel, down 97 cents or 1.545%.

Brent futures rose marginally in the previous two sessions, but finished last Friday with a weekly loss of more than 1%.

The US-China trade war is dominating investor sentiment in moving oil prices, said analyst John Evans of brokerage PVM, superseding nuclear talks between the US and Iran and discord within the OPEC+ coalition.

“This wait-and-see attitude coming out of the US-China talks is leaving a bad taste in peoples’ mouths,” said Gary Cunningham, director of market research for Tradition Energy. “If the talks go bad, you could see a drop in demand for oil from China.”

Markets have been rocked by conflicting signals from US President Donald Trump and Beijing over what progress was being made to de-escalate a trade war that could sap global growth.

In the latest comment from Washington, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday did not back Trump’s assertion that negotiations with China were underway. Earlier, Beijing denied any talks were taking place.

“A lot of the feeling in the market is how is it going to be playing out in the next 24 to 48 hours?” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. “Are we going to be bombing Iran? Is China going to be buying more crude?”

Some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, are expected to suggest that the group accelerate oil output hikes for a second consecutive month when they meet on May 5.

“Sentiment has turned more bearish since our forecast last month with OPEC+’s more aggressive unwind – and accompanying doubts about unity within the cartel – the key change,” said BNP Paribas analyst Aldo Spanjer in a note.

BNP Paribas expects Brent in the high USD 60s per barrel in the second quarter of this year, the note said.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said he remained “extremely cautious” about the success of the negotiations, as nuclear talks between Iran and the United States in Oman continue this week.

In Iran, a powerful explosion at its biggest port of Bandar Abbas has killed at least 40, with more than 1,200 people injured, state media reported on Sunday.

(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston; Robert Harvey in London; Mohi Narayan in New Delhi and Florence Tan in Singapore. Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips, David Evans, Mark Potter, and David Gregorio)

Gold rebounds as bargain-hunting kicks in

Gold prices reversed course to edge higher on Monday as bargain-hunting kicked in, while market focus was on US-China tradedevelopments and a slew of economic data.

Spot gold was up 0.5% at USD 3,335.30 an ounce as of 2:06 p.m. ET (1806 GMT) after falling as much as 1.8% earlier in the session. US gold futures settled 1.5% higher at USD 3,347.7.

“We’re starting to see the first signs of selling exhaustion,” TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali said, adding that the downside risk in gold is extremely limited.

“Western investors, particularly discretionary traders or macro funds, have been completely under-positioned in this last leg of gold’s rally, and as a result of that, there’s limited amount of selling activity and gold prices are drifting higher to reflect that.”

Bullion, a traditional hedge against political and financial instability, rose to an all-time high of USD 3,500.05/oz last week due to elevated uncertainties.

US President Donald Trump says progress has been made with China. However, Beijing has denied that trade talks are occurring, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent failed on Sunday to back Trump’s assertion that tariff talks with China were underway.

“Until we witness clear patterns of lower highs, lower lows, and firm trade agreements rather than more political bluster from the Trump administration, the prospect of fresh highs for gold cannot be dismissed,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com

The risk is high that the global economy will slip into recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll.

Data due this week includes the US job openings report on Tuesday, Personal Consumption Expenditures on Wednesday, and the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Market participants will scan these to gauge the impact of the latest tariffs on the US economy.

Spot silver eased 0.1% to USD 33.03 per ounce, platinum gained 1.5% to USD 986.05 and palladium fell 0.4% USD 947.27.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil, Ishaan Arora, and Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Barbara Lewis, Matthew Lewis, and Shailesh Kuber)

Gold dips 2% as US-China trade tensions ease, dollar rises

Gold prices fell 2% on Friday and were on track for a weekly dip as the dollar rose and signs of easing US-China trade tensions after a report that Beijing had exempted some US goods from its tariffs weighed on bullion.

Spot gold was down 1.7% at USD 3,292.99 an ounce as of 1:39 a.m. EDT (1739 GMT), after it fell as much as 2% earlier in the session. Bullion is down 1.2% for the week.

US gold futures settled 1.5% lower at USD 3,298.40.

“The apparent detente on tariffs is negatively affecting gold prices … But so far we’ve not seen substantial liquidations,” said TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali.

“However, we know that they’ve continued to buy the dip over the last few sessions, so we think gold can resume its upward trajectory.”

China is considering exempting some US imports from its 125% tariffs and is asking businesses to identify goods that could be eligible, according to the businesses notified.

Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump suggested a de-escalation of the tit-for-tat tariff battle, saying direct talks were already underway.

The US dollar, meanwhile, rose and was on track for its first weekly gain since March, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers.

Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties, scaled a record high of USD 3,500.05 per ounce and has gained more than 25% so far this year, owing to US-China trade tensions and strong central bank demand.

“Trade war concerns were the main reason behind all the prior gold buying. But it could still be a while before we see actual progress, and so those concerns are not completely gone just yet,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com.

Elsewhere, spot silver slipped 1.6% to USD 33.03 an ounce, but was heading for its third consecutive week of gains.

Platinum fell 0.5% to USD 965.53 and palladium dipped 1.8% to USD 936.89.

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel, Ishaan Arora, and Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; Editing by Nick Zieminski, Pooja Desai, and Alan Barona)

Oil posts weekly fall on tariff worry and rising supplies

NEW YORK – Oil prices edged higher on Friday but posted a weekly decline, under pressure from market expectations of oversupply and uncertainty around tariff talks between the US and China.

Brent crude futures settled 32 cents higher at USD 66.87 a barrel, taking losses to 1.6% over the week. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 23 cents to USD 63.02 a barrel, marking a weekly decline of 2.6%.

China exempted some US imports from its steep tariffs in a sign on Friday that the trade war between the world’s top two economies could be easing, though Beijing quickly knocked down US President Donald Trump’s assertion that negotiations were underway.

“Traders now view further (crude price) gains as unlikely in the short term due to the continued trade war among top global consumers and speculation that OPEC+ may accelerate production hikes from June,” Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said.

Oil prices fell earlier this month to four-year lows after tariffs sparked investor concern about global demand and a selloff in financial markets.

While the risk is that a weaker economy will erode demand, supplies could swell.

Several OPEC+ members have suggested the group accelerate oil output increases for a second month in June, Reuters reported earlier this week.

An end to the war in Ukraine also has the potential to add to supplies if it allows more Russian oil to reach global markets.

A three-hour meeting on Friday between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump envoy Steve Witkoff was constructive and narrowed differences when it came to ending the war in Ukraine, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said.

In an indication of future supply, the number of oil-directed drilling rigs rose by 2 to 483 in the week to April 25, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes showed on Friday.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly in New York; Additional reporting by Enes Tunagur in London and Siyi Liu in Singapore; Editing by David Gregorio, Daniel Wallis, and Nia Williams)

Japan’s Nikkei ends higher on Trump’s easing tariff tone, weaker yen

TOKYO – Japan’s Nikkei share average ended higher on Friday as investors scooped up technology stocks after the White House softened its trade stance against China and the yen weakened following talks between Japan-US finance chiefs.

The Nikkei rose for a third straight session, closing 1.9% higher at 37,705,74. The index has almost fully recouped its losses since US President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariff announcements. For the week, it rose 0.89%.

The broader Topix rose 1.37% to 2,628.03 and posted a 1.3% weekly gain.

“With Trump easing his tone about his tariff plans, investors have started looking into other factors, such as corporate earnings and outlook of the chip industry,” Yusuke Sakai, a senior trader at T&D Asset Management.

This week, the Trump administration shifted its tone against China and said the situation was unsustainable. China, meanwhile, is considering exempting some US imports from its 125% tariffs in the biggest sign yet of Beijing’s concerns about the economic fallout.

Investors’ worries about the yen’s further gains have eased after the talks between the finance chiefs of Japan and the US, said Sakai.

Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Thursday he agreed with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to continue “constructive” dialogue on currency policy, but did not discuss setting currency targets or a framework to control yen moves.

The yen was last down 0.65% at 143.56 against the dollar, after hitting a seven-month high of 139.885 this week.

Among individual stocks, electric motor maker Nidec surged 12.48%. It became the biggest percentage gainer in the Nikkei after it reported a larger-than-expected quarterly profit and forecast a record annual operating profit.

Fujitsu jumped 4.8% after the computer maker said its annual net profit for the year to March 2026 will be up 77% from the previous year.

Chip-related stocks Tokyo Electron and Advantest rose 4.24% and 4.64%, respectively, providing the biggest boost to the Nikkei.

Truck maker Hino Motors fell 5% and was the worst performer on the index.

(Reporting by Junko Fujita; Editing by Varun H K and Janane Venkatraman)

2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle

Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work

Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning

Quarterly Economic Growth Release: 5.4% Q12025

Policy rate views: Uncertainty stalls cuts