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Archives: Reuters Articles

Dollar edges up ahead of CPI, trade news; yen slips

Dollar edges up ahead of CPI, trade news; yen slips

TOKYO – The dollar drifted higher against its major peers on Thursday as traders waited on the delayed release of US consumer inflation data on Friday, while digesting tariff threats between Washington and Beijing.

The yen weakened to a one-week low against the dollar as the market awaited details of a big stimulus package from new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, widely viewed as favouring fiscal and monetary easing.

Sterling remained under pressure after British data on Wednesday showed consumer inflation held steady at 3.8% last month, defying economists’ estimates for it to accelerate.

Traders rushed to price a 75% chance of the Bank of England cutting rates by its December meeting – up sharply from a 46% probability before the data was published – although those odds had eased back to 61% on Thursday.

The US dollar index, which measures the currency against the yen, sterling, euro and three other peers, edged up 0.05% to 98.979 as of 0050 GMT.

The dollar added 0.17% to 152.21 yen, and earlier touched 152.26 yen for the first time since October 14.

Sterling sagged 0.09% to USD 1.3345. The euro eased 0.06% to USD 1.1604.

The Trump administration is considering curbs on a wide array of software-powered exports to China, from laptops to jet engines, to retaliate against Beijing’s latest round of rare earth export restrictions, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

The currency market reaction, though, has been largely sanguine, with traditional safe havens such as the yen and Swiss franc finding little support, while gold continued its retreat from a record high.

“Trade tensions remain the driver of volatility in the markets (but) it can be strongly argued market participants expect these threats not to materialize into action,” said Kyle Rodda, a senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com.

“They are being seen as brinkmanship and ways to drive negotiations forward.”

Meanwhile, the dearth of official US macroeconomic data continues with the government shutdown about to enter its 23rd day, although the consumer price index is due for release on Friday, more than a week late. Other data, such as monthly payrolls, have not been released at all.

“Markets are marking time. There’s not a lot of reliable news,” said National Australia Bank strategist Gavin Friend.

And even the CPI report “is almost being looked through”, because almost irrespective of what it shows, “everybody thinks the Fed is going to cut next week, and probably again in December”, Friend said.

Market-implied odds of a quarter-point Fed interest rate cut stands at 97% for October 29. A total of 48.5 basis points of reductions are priced in over the remainder of the year.

The Bank of Japan decides policy on October 30, with traders laying around 1-in-5 odds on a quarter-point rate hike.

Economists generally think the new prime minister won’t delay the BOJ from raising rates, but most still expect the next hike will come in December at the earliest, with January being the most popular choice, according to a recent Reuters poll.

Takaichi is preparing an economic stimulus package that is likely to exceed last year’s USD 92 billion to help households tackle inflation, government sources familiar with the plan told Reuters on Wednesday.

The exact scale of the package is still being finalised, the sources said. It could be announced as early as next month.

(Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

 

From FOMO to fear of margin calls: gold’s wild ride enters new stage

From FOMO to fear of margin calls: gold’s wild ride enters new stage

LONDON – Gold’s remarkable rise has moved into a new phase with the swelling influence of speculators bringing greater volatility yet market players are sticking with forecasts for higher prices in 2026 even if central bank demand eases.

On track for its biggest yearly rise since 1979, gold’s 54% rise year to date has seen it break through key psychological resistance levels at USD 3,000 per troy ounce in March and USD 4,000 in October.

Powering the run have been political tensions and US tariff uncertainty, and more recently, a wave of fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) buying.

“The nature of the rally has changed, driven now by Western investors rather than the stickier emerging market buyers of most of the last two years,” said John Reade, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council.

“This means more uncertainty and volatility even if the factors driving gold look set to continue,” he added.

On Monday, gold hit a record USD 4,381 an ounce, a level few had predicted a year ago or expected to see any time in their lifetimes.

Delegates heading to the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) conference in Japan next week had forecast a year ago a price of USD 2,941 by this point.

Having achieved so many major milestones, bullion saw a 5% sell-off on Tuesday in the steepest daily fall for five years, driving the market’s relative strength index, which measures the magnitude of price changes, to “normal” from “overbought” for the first time in seven weeks.

“A consolidation would in fact not be unusual after such a sharp and steep rally and should be considered healthy,” said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke. “The fundamental backdrop for gold remains favourable.”

US RATE CUTS AND STOCKS

Gold’s record high on Monday took it up 20% since rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in September.

That outpaced bullion’s performance versus most recent Fed easing cycles, according to analysts at Oxford Economics.

“In previous cycles the Fed was not cutting interest rates at all-time highs in US stocks, with bubble talk in markets and inflation still convincingly above their target,” said Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP.

“Seems like this ‘everything bubble’ has room to run, and gold prices through USD 4,500 will only sustain the FOMO buying in retail.”

Gold prices have increased twofold in the past two years, having surpassed the 1980 inflation-adjusted high calculated by MKS PAMP at USD 3,590 (nominal high of USD 850 then).

A WARY EYE ON RISING S&P 500

Market specialists are keeping a wary eye on a rising S&P 500 stock index and a simultaneous inflow of investor cash into bullion, mindful of historical cases when sharp corrections in equity markets forced the sale of safe haven assets, including gold.

“A portion of gold purchases have been made as a hedge against equity market declines,” HSBC analyst James Steel said in a recent note.

“A correction in equities could, as they have in the past, trigger long liquidation as investors seek to raise cash or meet margin calls.”

CENTRAL BANKS, INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS

With exponential gains over the past month, emerging market central banks don’t have to do much to keep progressing their common aim – increasing the share of gold in their foreign currency reserves for diversification.

Although central bank buying is widely expected to remain elevated for years, having supported demand for bullion since late 2022, the price rally automatically increases the value of their holdings.

“That thinking also applies to long-term institutional investors who are perhaps hitting portfolio thresholds and need to de-risk and reduce their gold holdings,” Shiels said.

Analysts also caution that if investor momentum slows in 2026, excess physical supply could begin to weigh on prices as demand from the jewellery sector in the key consuming regions is falling.

China’s January-September gold imports fell 26% in tonnage terms, according to the Trade Data Monitor. India’s January-July imports fell 25%.

(Reporting by Polina Devitt; Editing by Veronica Brown and Jason Neely)

 

Gold extends retreat from record high; US inflation data in focus

Gold extends retreat from record high; US inflation data in focus

Gold prices fell further on Wednesday, as investors took profits from bullion’s recent record rally while awaiting US inflation data due later this week for more cues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate-cut path.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold was down 0.3% at USD 4,113.54 per ounce, as of 0115 GMT. Bullion fell more than 5% on Tuesday in its steepest fall since August 2020.

* US gold futures for December delivery climbed 0.5% to USD 4,129.80 per ounce.

* US President Donald Trump said he expected to reach a fair trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping when the two meet next week in South Korea, and played down the risks of a clash over the issue of Taiwan.

* Gold prices have gained about 56% this year, reaching an all-time peak of USD 4,381.21 on Monday, bolstered by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, rate-cut bets and sustained central bank buying.

* Investors now look forward to the release of US consumer price index report for September on Friday. The report has been delayed due to the US government shutdown.

* The Fed will lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points next week and again in December, according to a Reuters poll of economists who remain deeply divided on where rates will be by the end of next year.

* Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, which meets next week, is not expected to deliver a rate cut any time soon.

* Gold tends to appreciate when interest rates are low as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

* Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.9% to USD 48.29 per ounce, platinum slipped 1.1% to USD 1,534.44 and palladium was flat at USD 1,406.76 per ounce

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

 

Stocks mostly flat but earnings a positive; gold drops 5%

Stocks mostly flat but earnings a positive; gold drops 5%

NEW YORK – Major stock indexes were mostly near flat on Tuesday, with upbeat results and forecasts from top US companies providing some support, while gold prices dropped more than 5% as investors took profits after a recent rally.

The yen fell to a one-week low after conservative Sanae Takaichi was elected as Japan’s prime minister. Japan’s Nikkei share gauge closed at a record high on Tuesday.

Spot gold fell 5.31% to USD 4,123.85 an ounce, and had its steepest daily percentage fall since August 2020. Prices scaled an all-time peak of USD 4,381.21 on Monday and have gained about 60% this year.

US President Donald Trump said he expected to reach a fair trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping when the two meet next week in South Korea, and played down the risks of a clash over the issue of Taiwan.

The prospect of a resolution also helped bolster investor sentiment, along with a deal between Australia and the United States for the supply of rare earths minerals.

In earnings, GM shares jumped after the company raised its full-year forecast, and Coca-Cola gained after the company posted results that beat analysts’ estimates.

But the S&P 500 technology sector was down 0.2%, and Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management in Philadelphia, said the reaction to some earnings surprises was modest.

“The earnings are better than expected as companies continue to gain slightly in terms of margins, which suggests that (companies) have to be passing through the tariffs or pushing the tariffs back onto the importers,” Green said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 218.16 points, or 0.47%, to 46,924.74, the S&P 500 rose 0.22 points, essentially flat, to 6,735.35 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 36.88 points, or 0.16%, to 22,953.67.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe fell 0.84 points, or 0.08%, to 994.85.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.21%.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.81% to 151.96.

Takaichi became Japan’s first female prime minister and leader of its ruling Liberal Democratic Party on Tuesday.

Traders bet that Takaichi’s government could muddy the interest rate outlook and bring about greater fiscal spending.

The dollar also rose against other currencies. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was 0.35% higher at 98.95, with the euro down 0.33% at USD 1.1602.

US Treasury yields eased as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s next moves.

The Fed could deliver as many as three rate cuts in the next six months based on market-based expectations, while the European Central Bank, which meets next week, is not expected to deliver a rate cut any time soon.

The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes fell 2.9 basis points to 3.959%, from 3.988% late on Monday.

Investor confidence was hit hard last week as a clutch of bad loans at US regional banks ignited concern over credit risks that threatened to spill into the broader markets. The prolonged US government shutdown also weighed on risk assets.

Oil prices ended higher. Brent crude futures rose 31 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at USD 61.32 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for November delivery, which expired on Tuesday’s settlement, closed up 30 cents, or 0.5%, at USD 57.82.

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Additional reporting by Amanda Cooper in London and Pranav Kashyap and Twesha Dikshit in Bengaluru; Editing by Will Dunham, Zieminski, and Jamie Freed)

 

US bonds rise as investors eye Fed rate cut, delayed inflation data

US bonds rise as investors eye Fed rate cut, delayed inflation data

NEW YORK – US Treasuries rose for a second straight session on Tuesday, pushing their yields lower and with not much of a catalyst moving the market, as investors continued to position for the prospect of multiple Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the rest of 2025 and next year.

Ahead of the US central bank’s policy meeting next week, Fed officials are currently in a blackout period in which they are temporarily restricted from making public comments or speeches about monetary policy.

Bond investors will be looking to the release on Friday of the Consumer Price Index report for September for clues on whether or not inflation remains under control. The CPI excluding volatile food and energy items is expected to have increased 0.3% on a month-over-month basis, according to the consensus forecast of economists polled by Reuters. That reading would be unchanged from August.

A three-week shutdown of the US government has delayed the release of the CPI report and many other economic indicators.

“We’re not running away to lower rates with the lack of data,” said Gregory Faranello, head of US rates strategy at AmeriVet Securities in New York.

“But the rate market remains firm with room for lower yields in the US 10-year (note). With the Fed priced on the short-end for what we know … we view a continued move lower from here consistent with a flatter yield curve,” he noted.

The Fed is expected to reduce rates two more times this year, with a quarter-percentage-point cut baked in for the October 28-29 meeting, according to LSEG calculations using rate futures. For 2026, the fed funds futures market has priced in three more 25-basis-point cuts.

‘BOND MARKET HAS ROOM TO RALLY’

In afternoon trading, the benchmark 10-year yield slipped 2.7 bps to 3.961%, while 30-year bond yields were down 3.3 bps at 4.546%.

On the shorter end of the curve, US two-year yields, which reflect interest rate expectations, slipped 1 bp to 3.455%.

“I still think the bond market has room to rally even with the economy expected to continue to grow in the short term,” said Vinny Bleau, director of fixed income capital markets at Raymond James in Memphis.

“The low of 3.85% from April might be the lowest 10s (10-year notes) get this year. Into next year, I think if the Fed continues to ease some, the job market weakens more, or some combination of factors, 10s could fall to around 3.60% to 3.70% which are the lows reached in late September/early October of last year,” he added.

Moves in the Treasury market were also fairly contained in narrow ranges, with the federal government now in its second-longest shutdown along with the 1995-1996 closure.

The easing of US-China trade tensions also has helped support bids for Treasuries. US President Donald Trump on Monday expressed optimism about a potential fair trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping, following his previous comments that the hefty US tariffs on China are “not sustainable.”

The yield curve, meanwhile, continued to bull flatten, with the spread between US two-year and 10-year yields at 50.2 bps, from 52.3 late on Monday. The curve hit 50 bps on Tuesday, the flattest since September 17, suggesting possibly that investors have lowered their inflation expectations.

A bull flattening curve refers to a scenario in which long-term rates are falling more quickly than those on the short end of the curve, and typically precedes Fed rate cuts.

(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Will Dunham and Paul Simao)

 

Australian shares extend gains, BHP and rare earths stocks shine

Australian shares extend gains, BHP and rare earths stocks shine

Australian shares rose on Tuesday, driven by BHP after the iron ore miner struck an upbeat note on global demand outlook and as investors snapped up rare earths and critical minerals stocks after the country signed a supply deal with the US

The S&P/ASX 200 index climbed 0.5% to 9,075.70 by 2351 GMT. The benchmark closed 0.4% higher on Monday.

Shares of BHP rose 2.3% after the company said that “macro-economic signals for commodity demand remain resilient”, even though it posted a 2% drop in quarterly iron ore production from its Western Australia mine operations on a 100% basis.

This helped the mining sub-index rise 2.3% to notch a record high, despite an overnight slump in iron ore futures on downbeat China data.

Rio Tinto rose 1.8%, while Fortescue, which is scheduled to release its first-quarter production results on Thursday, climbed 0.9%.

Overnight, US President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed a critical minerals agreement to counter China’s supply control, sending shares of Australian rare earths and critical minerals firms soaring in opening deals on Tuesday.

Australian Strategic Materials, Northern Minerals, Australian Rare Earths, Arafura Rare Earths, and Latrobe Magnesium rose between 12% and 23%.

Gold stocks rose 2.4% after bullion prices closed higher on Monday on expectations of further US interest rate cuts and sustained safe-haven demand.

Northern Star Resources added 1.4%, while Evolution Mining rose 4.7%.

Among individual stocks, South32 jumped 3.2% after posting a significant jump in its first-quarter manganese output.

Meanwhile, banks slipped 0.3%, with three of the “Big Four” banks declining between 0.3% and 0.8%.

In New Zealand, the benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.2% to 13,318.41.

(Reporting by Sneha Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

 

Apple nears USD 4 trillion valuation as shares surge on strong iPhone 17 demand

Apple nears USD 4 trillion valuation as shares surge on strong iPhone 17 demand

Apple shares surged to an all-time high on Monday, with the iPhone maker close to becoming the third company to hit a USD 4 trillion market valuation as data showed strong momentum for the latest iPhone.

Data from research firm Counterpoint showed the iPhone 17 series outperformed its predecessor in early sales in China and the United States, with the newer models out-selling the iPhone 16 series by 14% during their first 10 days of availability in the two countries.

Apple shares jumped 4.2% to USD 262.9, giving it a market capitalization of about USD 3.9 trillion and making it the second most valuable company in the world after AI-chip giant Nvidia.

Over the weekend, Evercore ISI added the stock to its Tactical Outperform List as the brokerage expects Apple to beat market expectations for the current three-month period and issue upbeat forecasts for the December quarter.

“The recent launch of online orders in China may be a positive tailwind for the Dec-qtr., as initial delivery time data reflects stronger initial demand relative to other regions at launch,” Evercore ISI analysts wrote in a note.

Apple unveiled in September an upgraded line of new iPhones, including a slimmer iPhone Air, and held prices steady amid US tariff concerns.

“They rolled out the latest version of their iPhone and it’s doing much better than anticipated … the demand trends for the company’s iPhones are now on the front foot,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth.

Apple shares had struggled earlier this year on concerns over tough competition in China and uncertainties around how the company would navigate high US tariffs on Asian economies such as China and India, its major manufacturing hubs.

However, the stock has risen modestly since early August after the company pledged USD 100 billion in additional US investment, a move that could help it sidestep potential tariffs.

The stock is set for its biggest one-day jump in four weeks if gains hold and will be up more than 5% for the year.

Apple will report quarterly earnings after the bell on October 30.

(Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan and Twesha Dikshit in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva and Arun Koyyur)

 

US bonds rise amid easing China trade fears, but shutdown keeps investors wary

US bonds rise amid easing China trade fears, but shutdown keeps investors wary

NEW YORK – US Treasuries were moderately bid on Monday, with yields edging lower and trading held within tight ranges amid improving risk sentiment as the China trade outlook appeared less dire than it did weeks earlier.

Investors remained broadly cautious, however, as the federal government stayed shuttered for a 20th consecutive day, with no real compromise expected from either Republicans or Democrats.

But White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Monday the shutdown could likely end this week. He said his “friends in the Senate” believed it was “bad optics for Democrats to open the government before the ‘No Kings’ rallies and that now there’s a shot that this week things will come together.”

In afternoon trading, the benchmark 10-year yield slipped 1.9 basis points (bps) to 3.989%, while 30-year bond yields drifted lower by 2.3 bps to 4.579%.

On the shorter end of the curve, US two-year yields, which reflect interest rate expectations, were flat at 3.469%.

“I don’t see any reason that anybody is going to magically end this lockdown and so the longer this goes on, the more uncertain the market gets,” said Byron Anderson, head of fixed income, at Laffer Tengler Investments in Scottsdale, Arizona.

“But I think the bond market is pretty well behaved right now and we really haven’t seen panic in anything. Eventually we’re going to see problems from the lockdown, and I think the Federal Reserve will continue to cut, and it’s needed at the margin.”

The Fed is expected to cut two more times this year, with 25-bp cut baked in for the October meeting, according to LSEG calculations.

China sentiment, in the meantime, has also improved, adding to the risk-on tone overall.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Friday he expects to meet this week with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia to try to forestall an escalation of US tariffs on Chinese goods that President Donald Trump said was unsustainable.

Trump also confirmed he would meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in two weeks in South Korea and expressed admiration for the Chinese leader.

“There is better sentiment on China and trade that it’s not going to spiral into a nightmare,” said Stan Shipley, managing director and fixed income strategist at Evercore ISI.

Investors are also looking forward to the release of the September Consumer Price Index report on Friday that should give some perspective as to where inflation is headed.

“While the inflation data will contribute to the Fed’s messaging at its upcoming meeting, it won’t change the outcome of the rate decision,” wrote BMO analysts in a research note.

“CPI won’t deter a rate cut this month even if the core measure prints at the top of the range of economist estimates,” the bank said. The consensus forecast for core CPI last month was 0.3%, unchanged from August, an estimate that reinforces “the limited inflationary fallout from the trade war thus far,” BMO said.

In other parts of the bond market, the yield curve bull flattened on Monday, with the gap between US two-year and 10-year yields at 52.4 bps, from 55 bps late Friday.

A bull flattening curve refers to a scenario in which long-term interest rates are falling faster than those on the short end, which reflects either a flight to safety or a lowering of inflation expectations. In any case, a bull flattener often precedes an interest rate cut from the Fed.

(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Nick Zieminski)

 

Gold climbs on rate-cut bets, broader uncertainty; investors eye US-China trade talks

Gold climbs on rate-cut bets, broader uncertainty; investors eye US-China trade talks

Gold prices rose by over 2% on Monday, buoyed by expectations of further US interest rate cuts and sustained safe-haven demand, as investors awaited upcoming US-China trade talks and inflation data out of the US this week.

Spot gold was up 2.3% at USD 4,346.39 per ounce, as of 1:47 p.m. ET (1746 GMT). US gold futures for December delivery settled 3.5% higher at USD 4,359.40 per ounce.

Gold prices notched a record high of USD 4,378.69 on Friday, but closed 1.8% lower — their steepest drop since mid-May — after comments from US President Donald Trump alleviated some concerns around US-China trade tensions.

Political and economic concerns are driving prices higher after Friday’s sharp sell-off, said CPM Group managing partner Jeffrey Christian.

“Our expectation is that the price is going to rise higher over the next several weeks and several months, and we wouldn’t be surprised at USD 4,500/oz soon,” he added.

The US government shutdown stretched to its 20th day on Monday, after senators failed for the tenth time last week to break the impasse. The shutdown has also delayed key economic data releases, leaving investors and policymakers in a data vacuum ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.

US consumer price index data, delayed due to the shutdown, is scheduled for Friday.

Meanwhile, traders are pricing in a 99% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, with another cut in December. Gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments.

Investors are also looking out for further updates on US-China trade talks, after Trump said on Friday that a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping would go ahead.

“I would not be surprised to see gold get to USD 5,000/oz at some point next year. That would be predicated on ongoing political problems and worsening political problems, which is actually what we have right now,” Christian said.

Spot silver rose 0.6% to USD 52.17 per ounce. The metal fell 4.4% on Friday, after hitting a record high of USD 54.47 earlier that day.

Elsewhere, platinum rose 1.9% to USD 1,640.90 per ounce and palladium gained 1.5% to USD 1,496.59 per ounce.

(Reporting by Noel John, Pablo Sinha and Kavya Balaraman in Bengaluru; Editing by Susan Fenton, Shailesh Kuber and Alan Barona)

 

Gold pulls back after record high on firm dollar, Trump’s China remarks

Gold pulls back after record high on firm dollar, Trump’s China remarks

Gold prices fell more than 2% on Friday after hitting a record high above USD 4,300 per ounce, pressured by a firmer dollar and US President Donald Trump’s comment that a “full-scale” tariff on China would be unsustainable.

Spot gold was down 2.6% at USD 4,211.48 per ounce at 01:38 p.m. ET (1738 GMT), after scaling an all-time high of USD 4,378.69 earlier in the session. The metal breached USD 4,300/oz for the first time on Thursday, and is set for a weekly gain of about 4.8%.

US gold futures for December delivery settled 2.1% lower at USD 4,213.30.

The dollar index was up 0.1%, making dollar-priced bullion more expensive for overseas buyers.

Earlier in the session, gold had temporarily been on track for its biggest weekly gain since September 2008 when the collapse of Lehman Brothers fuelled the global financial crisis.

“I think Trump’s more conciliatory tone since the initial announcement of 100% tariffs has taken a little heat out of the precious trade,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.

Trump on Friday confirmed a meeting with his Chinese counterpart, easing some market jitters over the escalating trade conflict between the two countries.

Gold, a traditional hedge against uncertainty, has surged more than 64% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, a switch out of the dollar, and strong inflows into gold exchange-traded funds. Bets on US interest rate cuts have also supported the non-yielding asset.

“We’re forecasting gold to average USD 4,488 in 2026, and see further upside risk from broader structural factors supporting the market,” said Suki Cooper, global head, commodities research at Standard Chartered Bank.

Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point cut at the Federal Reserve’s October meeting and another in December.

HSBC raised its 2025 average gold price forecast by USD 100 to USD 3,455 per ounce, and projected it would reach USD 5,000 an ounce in 2026.

Meanwhile, physical gold demand in Asia stayed firm even as prices hit fresh records, with Indian premiums at a decade-high ahead of festivals.

Spot silver fell 5.6% to USD 51.20 per ounce, after hitting a record high of USD 54.47, tracking the rally in gold. The metal is set for a 2% weekly gain.

Platinum fell 6.1% to USD 1,607.85 and palladium lost 7.9% to USD 1,485.50.

(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese, Anushree Mukherjee, and Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber and Susan Fenton)

 

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