Gold rebounds on bargain-hunting, softer US inflation data

Gold prices rose on Tuesday on bargain-hunting after a sharp loss in the previous day, while softer-than-expected inflation data from the US also lent support.

Spot gold rose 0.4% to USD 3,246.95 an ounce as of 1357 ET (17:57 GMT), after falling as low as USD 3,207.30 on Monday.

US gold futures settled 0.6% higher at USD 3,247.8.

“We had a big correction in gold on Monday on the news that there is a deal made between the US and China,” Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities, said.

“However, tariffs (on China) are still 30%, which is quite negative for the economy.”

The US and China on Monday said they would pause their tariffs for 90 days. Following the talks in Geneva over the weekend, the US said it will cut tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%, while China said it would cut duties on US imports to 10% from 125%.

Bullion had shattered multiple record highs in 2025, owing to concerns over economic slowdown following US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, strong central bank buying, geopolitical tensions and increased flow into gold-backed exchange-traded funds.

Elsewhere, US consumer price index increased 0.2% last month, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI would rise 0.3%.

“The report does lean slightly friendly for the precious metals markets because it’s not a problematic inflation report that would give the Federal Reserve pause on cutting interest rates,” Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, wrote in a note.

Financial markets expect the central bank to resume its policy easing in September.

Lower interest rates increase non-yielding bullion’s appeal.

Spot silver rose nearly 1% to USD 32.89 an ounce, platinum climbed 1.4% to USD 985.92, and palladium gained 1% to USD 955.15.

(Reporting by Sarah Qureshi and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Sahal Muhammed and Shailesh Kuber)

Oil prices ease off 2-week highs after US, China pause tariff war

Oil prices eased on Tuesday from a two-week high reached during the previous session after the US and China agreed to temporarily slash tariffs, sparking optimism that a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies would come to an end.

The US and China agreed to slash steep tariffs for at least 90 days, sending Wall Street stocks, the US dollar and crude prices sharply higher on Monday.

But underlying schisms that led to the dispute remain, including the US trade deficit with China and US President Donald Trump’s demand for more action from Beijing to combat the US fentanyl crisis.

Brent crude futures dropped 14 cents, or 0.2%, to USD 64.82 per barrel by 0011 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 13 cents, or 0.2%, to USD 61.82.

Both benchmarks closed about 1.5% higher on Monday at their steepest settlements since April 28. The gains come during a turbulent time for global oil markets.

Last month, oil prices fell to a four-year low on investor worries that the US-China trade war could depress economic growth and oil demand. Furthermore, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided to boost oil output by more than previously expected.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

BOJ policymaker called for keeping rate-hike stance, May meeting summary shows

TOKYO – The Bank of Japan should not turn overly pessimistic about the economic outlook and stand ready to raise interest rates further depending on shifts in US trade policy, one of its board members was quoted as saying at a April 30-May 1 policy meeting.

“The BOJ will enter a temporary pause in rate hikes due to slowing US growth. But it shouldn’t be too pessimistic, and must conduct monetary policy in a nimble and flexible manner such as by resuming rate hikes in response to changes in US policy,” the member said, according to a summary of opinions released on Tuesday.

Another opinion said the BOJ’s policy path “may change at any time” because the outlook for Japan’s economy and prices could quickly turn positive or negative depending on developments surrounding US tariffs.

“There’s no change to the BOJ’s rate-hike stance as our projection shows inflation achieving our 2% target and real interest rates are deeply negative,” a third opinion showed.

At the April 30-May 1 meeting, the BOJ kept interest rates steady at 0.5% and sharply cut its growth forecasts, suggesting uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and the hit to exports could keep policy in a holding pattern for some time.

(Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Sonali Paul & Shri Navaratnam)

Yields rise as US/China trade deal punishes safe-havens

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields rose on Monday to the highest levels in a month after the United States and China agreed to lower trade tariffs on one another during a 90-day pause, triggering a rush of investor cash into risk assets and hitting safe havens like bonds.

The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note rose 8.6 basis points to 4.461%, amid a strong rally that pushed stocks and the dollar higher.

The world’s two largest economies said in a joint statement that they had reached a deal to impose a 90-day pause on tariffs and reciprocal duties would drop sharply, giving investors some confidence that a full-scale trade war may have been averted.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking after talks with Chinese officials in Geneva, told reporters the two sides had reached the deal that was outlined in a joint statement and that reciprocal rates would drop by 115 percentage points.

President Donald Trump said on Monday that the deal includes larger acquisitions of US agricultural products by China and other market access issues.

“Yields are rising because of investors’ risk-on movement, reversing what had been happening since Liberation Day,” said Tom di Galoma, managing director at Seaport Global Holdings.

The 10-year yield is still well above where it was prior to Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day,” when he unveiled a flurry of tariffs on US trading partners. At that point, 10-year yields were at 4.15%.

Adam Hetts, Global Head of Multi-Asset and Portfolio Manager at Janus Henderson, said investors are cautiously optimistic, adding risk but in a measured way.

Now markets will try to estimate the damage to economic growth created by the volatility. “So far, we have seen some damage to the soft data, consumer sentiment, but not sharp changes in hard data. We are going to understand the impact on the economy over the next months.” Hetts said.

On Tuesday, the April Consumer Price Index will show if “Liberation Day” had any immediate impact on inflation, but it will take more data releases to have a clearer picture. Yesterday, markets were pricing the first potential interest rate by the Fed in September, and up to two rate cuts through the end of the year, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 11.3 basis points to 3.996%. Other investor safe havens such as the Swiss franc fell.

A closely watched part of the Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 46.3 basis points, flattening from 48.7 basis points late Friday.

(Reporting by Tatiana Bautzer, additional reporting by Amanda Cooper and Medha Singh; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, Andrea Ricci, and Nick Zieminski)

Risk-on revelers rejoice as US-China reach a deal

The S&P 500 index hit its highest level since early March on Monday as a crucial US-China agreement to slash tariffs put investors at ease after weeks of uncertainty around the future of global trade.

The US will cut extra tariffs it imposed on Chinese imports in April this year to 30% from 145% and Chinese duties on US imports will fall to 10% from 125%, the two countries said on Monday. The new measures are effective for 90 days.

With this, the Dow rallied 2.8%, the SPX jumped more than 3%, and the Nasdaq surged more than 4%.

Nearly all S&P 500 sectors ended green with consumer discretionary, up more than 5.5%, and tech, up more than 4.5%, posting the biggest jumps.

Under the surface, transports and chips were especially strong with both surging around 7%.

Amid the risk-on sentiment and waning uncertainty, defensive sectors lagged. Real estate and staples ended just above flat. Utilities finished red.

The CBOE market volatility index fell below 19.00, and is on pace for its lowest close since March 25.

And gold stocks lost some luster. The HUI slid more than 8%.

Meanwhile, on the charts, the three major indexes ended back above their 200-day moving averages (DMA).

It was the Dow’s first close above this closely followed long-term moving average since April 2. It was the S&P 500’s first close above its 200-DMA since March 25, and the Nasdaq ended above its 200-DMA for the first time since March 5.

With Monday’s strength, the SPX is now only down 4.88% from its February 19 record close. The Dow is down 5.78% from its December 4 record finish, and the Nasdaq is down 7.26% from its December 16 record close.

On April 8, the cycle closing lows, these indexes finished down 18.9%, 16.4%, and 24.3% from their record closes.

In any event, the latest read on consumer prices is due on Tuesday. Expectations call for April month-over-month headline CPI to heat up to 0.3% from -0.1% last month.

(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Oil prices rise 3% on support from US-China trade hopes

NEW YORK – Oil prices rose around 3% on Thursday, buoyed by hopes of a breakthrough in looming trade talks between the US and China, the world’s two largest oil consumers.

Brent crude futures settled up USD 1.72, or 2.8%, at USD 62.84 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude rose USD 1.84, or 3.2%, to USD 59.91.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with China’s top economic official on May 10 in Switzerland for negotiations over a trade war that is disrupting the global economy. Optimism around those talks was providing support to the market, said SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye.

The countries are the world’s two largest economies and fallout from their trade dispute was likely to lower crude consumption growth.

Analysts cautioned that the recent tariff-driven volatility in the oil market was not over.

“The global risk premium that was pushing oil prices up and down during the past couple of years has been replaced by a tariff premium that will also be fluctuating in response to the latest headlines out of the Trump administration,” Jim Ritterbusch, of US energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates, said in a note.

In another trade development, US President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a “breakthrough deal” on trade that leaves in place a 10% tariff on goods imported from the UK while Britain agreed to lower its tariffs to 1.8% from 5.1% and provide greater access to US goods.

On the supply front, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies in OPEC+ will increase its oil output, pressuring prices.

OPEC oil output edged lower in April despite a scheduled output hike taking effect, a Reuters survey found, led by a cut in Venezuelan supply on renewed US attempts to curb the flows and smaller drops in Iraq and Libya.

Analysts at Citi Research lowered their three-month price forecast for Brent to USD 55 per barrel from USD 60, but maintained their long-term forecast of USD 60 a barrel this year.

A US-Iran nuclear deal could drive Brent prices down toward USD 50 per barrel on increased global supply, but without a deal prices could rise to over USD 70, they added.

US sanctions on two small Chinese refiners for buying Iranian oil have created difficulties receiving crude and led them to sell product under other names, sources familiar with the matter said, evidence of the disruption that Washington’s stepped-up pressure is inflicting on Tehran’s biggest oil buyer.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly in New York, Seher Dareen in London, Katya Golubkova in Tokyo and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by David Evans and Ed Osmond, Kirsten Donovan and David Gregorio)

Dollar rises against safe-haven currencies buoyed by US-UK trade deal

NEW YORK – The US dollar gained against the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc on Thursday with market nerves soothed by a bilateral trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom, while sterling reversed gains made after an interest rate cut from the Bank of England.

US President Donald Trump announced a “breakthrough” trade agreement with Britain on Thursday, which leaves in place a baseline 10% tariff on British imports including vehicles.

The market sees the trade deal as positive because it means Trump is envisioning a 10% baseline for friendly countries with anything beyond that subject to negotiation, said Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Hard Currency Fund in California.

“The market for whatever reason today takes that as good news. In my view, a 10% baseline tariff is still very high for goods coming into the US and does change in my assessment how global trade operates,” Merk said.

The dollar rose to a four-week high of 146.175 against the yen following the announcement of the trade deal. It was last up 1.55% at 146 yen.

Against the Swiss franc, it was 1.07% stronger at 0.8323 franc, matching its highest level since May 1.

The deal could serve as a template for other countries looking to sign trade agreements with the US, said Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX Research at Standard Chartered in New York.

“Getting a deal that looks like it’s going to work is going to be risk positive. I think the market will look at what’s disclosed and ask how much of this will be applicable to other countries or if it’s going to be the template for other deals,” Englander said.

Wall Street’s main indexes, including the benchmark S&P 500, buoyed by market optimism on the trade deal. Gold prices fell with the dollar advancing. Spot gold fell 1.74% to USD 3,305.76 an ounce.

Trump said he expects substantive negotiations between the United States and China when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer meet China’s economic tsar, He Lifeng, in Switzerland on Saturday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 to cut rates by a quarter point, in line with expectations. But there was an unexpected divergence among voting members: two, Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor, voted for a bigger half-point cut while Chief Economist Huw Pill and external member Catherine Mann wanted to hold interest rates.

The BoE’s decision came a day after the US Federal Reserve held interest rates but said the risks of higher inflation and unemployment had risen.

Sterling gave up earlier gains and was down 0.37% at USD 1.32410.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.41% to 100.31, hitting its highest since April 10. The euro was down 0.71% at USD 1.122175.

The dollar also gained against both the Swedish and Norwegian currencies after Sweden’s Riksbank and Norway’s Norges Bank held rates, as expected. The Swedish crown was up 0.94% at 9.7471 per dollar, while the Norwegian crown was last at 10.4313 per dollar, up 0.99%.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 4.68% to USD 101,293.99. Ethereum rose 16.29% to USD 2,091.29.

(Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Diane Craft)

Dollar retains strength against peers after Fed rate decision

NEW YORK – The US dollar remained slightly stronger against major currencies, including the yen and the euro, on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations.

The Fed kept its benchmark interest rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range, but said that the risks of higher inflation and unemployment had risen and that the US economic outlook remains uncertain.

“They were a little more hawkish than a lot of the market expected, and they didn’t really change or water down any of the views on inflation being above average or the jobs market selling at a low level,” said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street in Boston.

“I still think we’re in an extended hold period until data tells them that they need to do something and/or we get a lot more trade clarity,” Loh added.

The greenback was up 1% versus the yen at 143.840, breaking a three-day falling streak, with Japanese markets reopening after a two-day holiday.

During his subsequent press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank cannot make preemptive policy decisions until there is clarity about where the economy is headed.

The US dollar was up 0.09% against the Swiss franc in choppy trading at 0.82210 franc. On Monday, it hit its lowest since January 2015 of 0.8032.

“The statement had only small changes and the theme which we expected – which is, ‘The Fed is feeling the tensions between the two sides of its mandate,'” said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist at UBS in New York. “The FX market is well aware of this and that probably explains the lack of initial reaction.”

President Donald Trump suggested on Wednesday that China initiated upcoming senior-level trade talks between the two countries and said he was not willing to cut US tariffs on Chinese goods to get Beijing to the negotiating table.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet China’s economic tsar, He Lifeng, in Switzerland on Saturday for talks, which could lead to a potential thawing of trade tensions.

The euro was down 0.44% at USD 1.131650, snapping three straight session of gains.

German conservative leader Friedrich Merz was elected chancellor by parliament on Tuesday in a second round of voting after an unprecedented defeat on the first attempt.

The Bank of England will likely cut interest rates on Thursday. The pound sterling was down 0.52% to USD 1.3310 but up 0.21% to 0.85080 against the euro.

The Taiwan dollar has steadied after surging against the greenback since Trump’s April 2 announcement of sweeping tariffs on trade partners.

The Chinese yuan weakened 0.22% against the greenback to 7.227 per dollar as China announced a long-awaited rate cut.

(Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York, Stefano Rebaudo, additional reporting by Rocky Swift; Editing by Bernadette Baum, Ros Russell, Will Dunham, and Deepa Babington)

Oil settles lower as hopes dim for US-China trade and supply worries ease

NEW YORK – Oil prices fell by more than USD 1 a barrel on Wednesday as investors doubted that upcoming US-China trade talks would result in a breakthrough, while hopes for an Iran-US nuclear deal eased supply worries.

Brent crude futures settled USD 1.03, or 1.66%, lower at USD 61.12 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate crude lost USD 1.02, or 1.73%, lower at USD 58.07 a barrel.

The US and China are due to meet in Switzerland, which could be the first step toward resolving a trade war disrupting the global economy.

The trade talks between the world’s two largest economies come after weeks of escalating tensions. Duties on goods imports between the countries have soared well beyond 100%.

“While the meeting may signal a thaw, expectations for a breakthrough remain low,” said Thiago Duarte, market analyst at Axi. “Unless the US receives major trade concessions, further de-escalation seems unlikely,” he said.

Asked about the upcoming trade meeting with Chinese officials, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the talks as “the opposite of advanced.”

US Vice President JD Vance described Washington’s talks with Iran as “so far, so good” and said there was a deal to be made that would reintegrate Iran into the global economy while preventing it from getting a nuclear weapon.

“There is a possibility that the US could be lifting the sanctions on Iranian oil, which right now is under maximum pressure,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group.

The US had threatened secondary sanctions on Iran after a fourth round of talks were postponed between Washington and the OPEC member with production of more than 3 million barrels per day, or about 3% of global output.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but said the risks of higher inflation and unemployment had risen, further clouding the economic outlook as the US central bank grapples with the impact Trump’s tariff policies.

Both benchmarks were pressured by data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing gasoline inventories in the US rose unexpectedly last week, raising concerns of weak demand ahead of US summer driving season.

“This is the first bad report for gasoline in a couple of weeks. The refiner had been cranking up the utilization rate. But today in this report it went backwards,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho.

However, US crude inventories fell by 2 million barrels to 438.4 million barrels in the week, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for an 833,000-barrel draw.

Limiting the losses, some US producers have signaled they would cut spending, cautioning the country’s oil output may have peaked.

Additionally, conflict in the Middle East between Israel and the Houthis increases the geopolitical risk premium, said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM.

Volatility is expected to persist on quicker-than-expected OPEC+ supply, while US policymaking remains unpredictable, he added.

(Reporting by Nicole Jao in New York, Seher Dareen in London, and Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Editing by Kate Mayberry, Saad Sayeed, Alex Lawler, Ros Russell, Ed Osmond, Louise Heavens, Jan Harvey, Diane Craft, and David Gregorio)

US yields dip as Fed flags economic risks, signals patience on rate moves

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields slipped on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, as expected, but noted that the risk of higher inflation and unemployment has increased.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a press conference after the US central bank’s latest policy meeting, emphasized the high degree of uncertainty brought on by the Trump administration’s tariffs. As a result, the Fed cannot be pre-emptive when it comes to monetary policy, he said, and has to wait and see how things play out on the tariff front.

“It’s not a situation where we can be pre-emptive because we actually don’t know what the right response to the data will be until we see more data,” Powell said.

The benchmark 10-year yield fell to 4.275%, down 4.3 basis points (bps). US 30-year yields also dropped, down 4 bps to 4.773%.

On the front end of the curve, the two-year yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, was down by less than a basis point at 3.781%.

The Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee kept the central bank’s benchmark interest rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range, but pointed to economic uncertainty amid mounting risks of elevated inflation and joblessness.

“The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate,” the FOMC said in its statement.

Ali Hassan, a portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management, said given the ongoing turmoil, the Fed’s reaction function – when and how deeply it responds – has been up for debate.

“The consensus is that the Fed is unlikely to make such a move without more evidence. How much pain the economy must suffer for the Fed to waive off the inflation risk and pivot to supporting economic growth” is not clear at the moment,” Hassan said.

“The Fed has claimed to be data-dependent, but in such a fast-moving situation, we’ll want to understand what soft and leading data they are weighing most in calibrating policy,” said Hassan, who thinks the central bank should cut rates at its meeting next month.

ONUS ON LABOR MARKET

The US Treasury yield curve flattened following the release of the Fed statement, with yields on the long end lower than those on the front end, suggesting the Fed is unlikely to ease at the next meeting in June.

The spread between two-year and 10-year yields narrowed to 49.4 bps on Wednesday, compared with 51 bps late on Tuesday. Typically under a Fed easing cycle, the curve steepens, with short-dated Treasury yields tied to rate cuts.

The benchmark federal funds futures market is pricing in more than a 70% chance that the Fed will resume its rate cuts at its July 29-30 policy meeting, according to LSEG calculations. It also sees about 82 bps of easing this year.

“Recent better-than-feared jobs data has supported the Fed’s on-hold stance, and the onus is on the labor market to weaken sufficiently to bring a resumption of its easing cycle,” Ashish Shah, chief investment officer of public investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management in New York, said in emailed comments.

“Any weakening in the labor market, however, could take a number of months to become apparent and we see the odds skewed towards another ‘hold’ at next month’s meeting.”

(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Will Dunham, Deepa Babington, and Paul Simao)

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