Oil falls on signs of weak US demand ahead of key jobs report

Oil prices eased on Thursday, reversing gains from the previous session, on concerns over weak US demand after government data showed a surprise build in inventories in the world’s biggest crude consumer.

Brent crude futures fell 24 cents, or 0.35%, to USD 68.87 a barrel by 0044 GMT after gaining 3% on Wednesday. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 24 cents, or 0.36%, to USD 67.21 a barrel after climbing 3.1% previously.

The US Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday domestic crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels to 419 million barrels last week. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a drawdown of 1.8 million barrels.

Gasoline demand dropped to 8.6 million barrels per day, prompting concerns about consumption in the peak US summer driving season.

Both benchmarks gained on Wednesday after Iran enacted a law suspending cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, raising concerns the lingering dispute over the Middle East producer’s nuclear program may once again devolve into armed conflict.

Additionally, the US and Vietnam reached a trade deal that sets 20% tariffs on many of the Southeast Asian country’s exports, giving investors a sense of greater economic stability on international trade which could flow into higher demand for oil.

The market will be watching the release of the key US monthly employment report on Thursday to shape expectations around the depth and timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year, analysts said.

Lower interest rates could spur economic activity, which would in turn boost oil demand.

A private payrolls report on Wednesday showed a contraction for the first time in two year though analysts cautioned there is no correlation between it and the government data.

(Reporting by Nicole Jao; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)

Gold falls after US-Vietnam trade deal; US payroll data eyed

Gold prices declined on Thursday after a US-Vietnam trade deal eased tensions, while investors awaited the US payroll data later in the day for clues about the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold lost 0.3% to USD 3,345.57 per ounce as of 0029 GMT, while US gold futures fell 0.1% to USD 3,356.60.

* The US will impose a lower-than-promised 20% tariff on various goods from Vietnam, President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday. The Southeast Asian nation is the US’s tenth-largest trading partner.

* Meanwhile, US and India negotiators pushed to finalise a tariff-reducing deal ahead of Trump’s July 9 deadline. However, disagreements around US dairy and agricultural exports remained unresolved, sources familiar with the talks said.

* Trump has indicated no signs of extending the negotiation deadline despite stalled discussions with Japan, another key trade partner, but expressed optimism about an India deal.

* Data released by ADP showed US private payrolls dropped by 33,000 jobs in June, marking the first decline in more than two years, as economic uncertainty hampered hiring. Meanwhile, low layoffs continued to anchor the labour market.

* Investors are now awaiting the non-farm payrolls report on Thursday, which is expected to show an addition of 110,000 jobs in June, down from 139,000 in May, according to a Reuters poll.

* The market currently anticipates a 66-basis-point rate cut by the Fed this year between September and December.

* Non-yielding gold tends to perform well during economic uncertainty and in a low-interest-rate environment.

* Meanwhile, Republicans in the House of Representatives struggled to pass Trump’s massive tax cut and spending bill as a handful of hardliners withheld support over concerns about its cost.

* Spot silver fell 0.6% to USD 36.36 per ounce, platinum lost 0.5% to USD 1,412.13 and palladium shed 0.4% to USD 1,150.28.

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)
0030	Japan JibunBK Comp Op, SVC PMI Final SA June
0145	China Caixin Services PMI June
0750	France HCOB Services, Composite PMI June
0755	Germany HCOB Services, Composite Final PMI June
0800	EU HCOB Services, Composite Final PMI June
0830	UK S&P GLOBAL PMI: COMPOSITE – OUTPUT June
0830	UK Reserve Assets Total June
1230	US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Earnings YY June
1230	US International Trade USD May
1230	US Initial Jobless Clm 28 June, w/e
1345	US S&P Global Comp, Svcs PMI Final June
1400	US Factory Orders MM May
1400	US ISM N-Mfg PMI June
1430	US EIA-Nat Gas Chg Bcf 27 June, w/e
1430	US Nat Gas-EIA Implied Flow 27 June, w/e

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Sumana Nandy)

Emerging market debt sale surge defies global turmoil amid signs of de-dollarisation

LONDON/DUBAI – Emerging market debt sales boomed in the first half of the year, defying tariff tantrums, missile attacks and gyrating oil prices, on track for another year of records – and with nascent signs of a shift away from the dollar, bankers told Reuters.

Cash-rich investors keen for margins – and to diversify their portfolios – hardly paused their buying spree even during US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” sweep of tariff announcements or Israel’s attacks on Iran.

Record supplies of new bonds could continue, with low oil prices driving exporting countries to keep borrowing to fund spending.

“What is astonishing this year is how markets … were still active, if not very active, in the toughest moments of the globe,” said Alexis Taffin de Tilques, global head of emerging markets sovereigns and head of Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa debt capital markets with BNP Paribas.

“The volumes of issuance have been incredible.”

Stefan Weiler, head of debt capital markets for CEEMEA at JPMorgan, said debt sales in the group of regions surpassed USD 190 billion in the first half of the year, on course to beat last year’s all-time record of USD 285 billion.

The surge is another sign of investor interest in emerging market assets in a year that has been marked by the sort of turmoil that typically sends investors fleeing for safe-havens.

“Investors are very cash rich … eagerly looking to deploy their cash in the primary market,” said Weiler, predicting that if oil prices fell, issuance from the Middle East and North Africa could rise further.

The Gulf, led by behemoth Saudi Arabia, issued just over 40% of CEEMEA debt, bankers said, as companies and countries took advantage of a dip in interest rates and the expectation that US Treasury yields would remain elevated for some time.

“It has been definitely a record first half of issuances this year” for the Middle East, said Khaled Darwish, head of CEEMEA Debt Capital Markets at HSBC, calculating that Middle East issuers had raised bond and sukuk deals worth USD 106 billion so far this year, compared with USD 139 billion for the whole of 2024.

“The impact of all the geopolitical developments that happened this year has been quite minimal on the GCC market,” he added.

Geopolitical upheaval has even helped demand for certain issues. Investors who may once have been cautious about defence companies have become keener in response to higher military spending in NATO countries following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Czech defence and industrial company CSG more than doubled its dual-tranche 2031 bond issue to 1 billion euros and USD 1 billion in response to strong investor demand.

DIVERSIFICATION

Fixed-income investment is better shielded from geopolitical turmoil than equity markets, Taffin de Tilques said. Weiler said crossover investors are keen for the bigger margins emerging market debt offers.

Citi’s debt finance team said global emerging-market issuance volumes were up 20% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, with corporate issuance growing particularly quickly.

While much of it is refinancing, new issuers have joined the fray such as Saudi mining giant Maaden, with a sukuk worth USD 1.25 billion, and Angola’s Azul Energy, which debuted with a USD 1.2 billion bond.

Victor Mourad, Citi’s co-head of CEEMEA debt financing, said the growing list of debut issuers offered investors diversification.

Darwish and Weiler said there are also more governments and corporates turning to other currencies – chiefly the euro – to diversify away from the dollar.

Saudi Arabia issued in euros this year, as did Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates. Weiler said other currencies were being explored too, from Japanese yen to “Panda bonds” issued on China’s domestic market in yuan. Uruguay sold its first sovereign bond in Swiss francs.

“There’s definitely a theme among global issuers currently exploring more non-USD financing alternatives as borrowers are seeking to achieve less reliance on USD-denominated funding,” Weiler said, adding it was an early sign of de-dollarisation. “I think it’s the start of a clear trend.”

Mourad said the other notable trend was a move away from 30-year issues; he said there were only two 30-year transactions from the CEEMEA region in the first half of the year. Yield curves have become steeper globally, making longer-term issues more costly to governments and corporates than before.

“The long end supply has been replaced by a surge in volumes for three-year transactions as issuers took a view on short-term rates,” Mourad said.

(Reporting by Libby George in London and Federico Macconi in Dubai; Editing by Karin Strohecker and Peter Graff)

US dollar rises, British pound falls as markets weigh trade deals, Fed rate cut

NEW YORK – The US dollar rose against major currencies on Wednesday as data supported market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, while the pound sterling fell amid a selloff in British government bonds.

Traders were also positioning ahead of the Labor Department’s employment report for June, due to be released on Thursday, and the July 4 holiday.

The dollar had lost ground briefly but regained momentum after the ADP National Employment Report showed US private payrolls fell for the first time in more than two years in June, suggesting the Fed might cut rates as soon as September.

President Donald Trump’s massive tax-cut and spending bill passed the US Senate on Tuesday by the narrowest of margins, which is expected to add USD 3.3 trillion to the national debt. Debate over the legislation has now returned to the House of Representatives.

Trump announced Vietnam had struck a trade deal with the US, which lowers planned tariffs and could push other countries to reach similar agreements on duties ahead of the July 9 deadline for higher tariffs to kick in.

“I think the market logic is if nobody agrees to a deal, then the pressure is on the US and that’s dollar negative because it serves to adjust everything, including the fiscal bill since the tariffs are in the background even if they are not formally in the bill,” said Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX Research at Standard Chartered.

“But if you get countries settling, it’s the countries that are left out that are in trouble. It’s becomes risk positive generally because you’re comfortable that there will be (trade) deals.”

The dollar was up 0.15% to 143.635 against the Japanese yen, on track to snap two straight sessions of losses. It was up 0.06% to 0.79150 against the Swiss franc, on track for gains after seven consecutive sessions of declines.

“The dollar is bouncing against G10 currencies, and it’s not coincidental as it is coming with almost a 20 basis point rise in US interest rates,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC.

British bonds suffered their worst selloff since October 2022, the day after the government sharply scaled back plans to cut benefits and there was speculation about the future of the country’s finance minister. Sterling GBP= weakened 0.79% to USD 1.3634 against the dollar, dropping to a one-week low and poised to snap two straight sessions of gains.

“It’s not just the British pound that is sharply lower but the gilts are under a lot of pressure as well. I think it’s just a crisis of confidence in the Labour government,” Chandler added.

The euro fell 0.08% to USD 1.179725 against the dollar but gained 0.9% versus the pound sterling.

Eurozone inflation edged up last month to the European Central Bank’s 2% target, confirming the era of runaway prices is over and likely shifting policymaker focus to tariff-related volatility.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.154% to 96.786, on track to snap nine straight sessions of losses. The index was still trading at multi-year lows after having its worst half-year since the 1970s, weighed by trade uncertainty.

The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 1.2 basis points to 3.789%, reversing earlier losses.

The Canadian dollar strengthened 0.35% versus the greenback to C$ 1.36 per dollar. The dollar strengthened 0.03% to 7.161 versus the offshore Chinese yuan.

(Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York; Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Chris Reese and Nick Zieminski)

Nikkei ends five-day winning run as US-Japan trade talks weigh

TOKYO – Japan’s Nikkei share average snapped a five-day winning streak to fall more than 1% on Tuesday, as investors sold stocks amid uncertainty over US-Japan trade talks.

The Nikkei fell 1.24% to 39,986.33, slipping from the highest level since mid-July, which it reached in the previous session.

The broader Topix slipped 0.73% to 2,832.07.

“The market was overheated, but there were some factors that boosted demand last month,” said Hiroyuki Ueno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management.

Japanese equities mirrored a rally in US stocks in the past several sessions, but demand was also supported by dividend payouts investors received after corporate shareholders’ meetings in June, as well as corporate share buybacks, said Ueno.

The Nikkei rose 6.6% in June, marking its biggest monthly gain since February 2024. In the last five sessions of June, the index gained 5.5%.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a technical measure for investment momentum, dropped to 66.6 on Tuesday from the “overbought” condition of 74.5.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump expressed frustration with US-Japan trade negotiations on Monday, casting clouds over ongoing trade talks between the two countries.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also warned that countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs as a July 9 deadline approaches despite good-faith negotiations.

“Investors weighed trade factors, but if the outlook of the talks becomes clear, then the market gauges stocks with fundamentals and the Nikkei has the potential to rise further,” said Ueno.

Uniqlo-brand owner Fast Retailing fell 4.16% to drag the Nikkei the most. Chip-equipment maker Tokyo Electron slipped 2.2%.

Bucking the trend, utility Tokyo Electric Power Holdings jumped 9.98% to become the biggest percentage gainer on the Nikkei.

(Reporting by Junko Fujita; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair and Vijay Kishore)

Oil settles up on signs of strong demand, investors await OPEC+ decision

NEW YORK – Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday as investors took stock of positive demand indicators, while also treading cautiously ahead of an OPEC+ meeting to decide the group’s August output policy.

Brent crude settled up 37 cents, or 0.6%, at USD 67.11 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude settled 34 cents higher, or up around 0.5%, at USD 65.45 a barrel.

The gains were likely due to supportive data from a private-sector survey in China, which showed factory activity returned to expansion in June, said Randall Rothenberg, a risk intelligence expert at US oil brokerage Liquidity Energy.

Expectations that Saudi Arabia will raise its August crude oil prices for buyers in Asia to a four-month high as well as firm premiums for Russian ESPO Blend crude oil were also supporting the notion of robust demand, Rothenberg said.

Oil’s gains were kept in check by expectations that the OPEC+ group will boost its August crude oil output by an amount similar to the outsized hikes agreed in May, June, and July. Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week the group plans to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day next month when it meets on July 6.

“All eyes will be on OPEC+’s decision over the weekend, when the group is expected to add another 411,000 bpd of production in an effort to gain more market share, primarily over the US shale producers,” StoneX energy analyst Alex Hodes told clients.

Besides gaining market share from US shale producers, which pumped oil at a record pace in April, according to official data released on Monday, the group has also been trying to punish overproducing members.

OPEC+ member Kazakhstan, one of the world’s 10 largest oil producers, raised oil production last month to match an all-time high, a source familiar with the data told Reuters on Tuesday.

Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the OPEC+ group, raised its June crude oil exports to the fastest rate in a year, data from Kpler showed.

“These exports are flooding out even faster than the OPEC+ deal implies during the summer, when peak domestic demand typically keeps oil supplies closer to home,” Hodes said.

In the US, crude oil inventories rose by 680,000 barrels in the past week, according to sources citing figures from the American Petroleum Institute. Official data from the Energy Information Administration is due Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Investors are also watching trade negotiations ahead of US President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline of July 9. Trump on Tuesday said he is not thinking of extending the deadline.

A trade deal with India was very close, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday. Trump also said the US will possibly have a deal with India, but he added that he doubts there will be a deal with Japan.

Bessent also warned countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs despite good-faith negotiations as the July 9 deadline approaches, when tariff rates are scheduled to revert from a temporary 10% level to the ones Trump announced on April 2 and then suspended.

The European Union wants immediate relief from tariffs in key sectors as part of any trade deal with the US, EU diplomats told Reuters.

(Reporting by Shariq Khan, Anjana Anil, Jeslyn Lerh, and Enes Tunagur. Editing Paul Simao and Nick Zieminski)

Safe-haven gold rises over 1% as Trump’s tax cut and spending bill passes in US Senate

Gold climbed more than 1% on Tuesday as investors sought safe-haven assets after US President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” passed in the Senate, ahead of the July 9 deadline for trade tariffs.

Spot gold rose 1.1% to USD 3,338.24 per ounce, as of 2:25 p.m. EDT (1825 GMT), its highest level since June 24. US gold futures settled 1.3% higher at USD 3,349.8.

The Republican-controlled US Senate voted on Tuesday to pass a wide-ranging tax-cut and spending bill sought by Trump, which would cut several social service programmes.

“The budget bill that passed is providing support because it seems that it will contribute to a deficit of USD 3 trillion over the next 10 years,” Marex analyst Edward Meir said.

“This is both to some extent inflationary, and more importantly, it will increase the debt burden that we have to service with more financing, more borrowing and all of these things are constructive for a stronger gold market.”

Gold, considered a store of value, tends to thrive on political and economic uncertainty.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs despite good-faith negotiations as July 9 approaches, when tariff rates are scheduled to revert from a temporary 10% level to Trump’s suspended rates of 11% to 50%.

Investors are watching out for US ADP employment data due on Wednesday, and Thursday’s payrolls data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that excluding the tariffs, inflation was behaving as expected and hoped.

Markets are currently expecting two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points this year, starting in September.

Lower rates boost non-yielding gold’s appeal.

Gold is likely to average USD 3000/oz for the fourth quarter and possibly even lower by year-end, said Rhona O’Connell, head of market analysis for EMEA & Asia at StoneX.

Spot silver was up 0.1% at USD 36.11 per ounce, while palladium was flat at USD 1,097.16, and platinum fell 0.7% to USD 1,342.78.

(Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru; Editing by Sharon Singleton and Alan Barona)

S&P 500, Nasdaq close at record highs, cap best quarter in over a year

NEW YORK – The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record closing highs on Monday, capping their best quarter in over a year as hopes for trade deals and possible rate cuts eased investor uncertainty.

Both indexes ended the quarter with double-digit gains. The S&P 500 gained 10.57% during the period, the Nasdaq rose 17.75%, and the Dow climbed 4.98%. The Russell 2000 Small Cap index rose 8.28% in the quarter.

Still, the three main indexes posted their weakest first-half performances since 2022, as the uncertainty around trade policy has kept investors wary during the year, with tensions peaking after President Donald Trump disclosed widespread tariffs on April 2.

Trade deals with China and the UK have fueled optimism that an all-out global trade war can be minimized, with hopes for more deals to be reached before Trump’s July 9 trade deadline.

The end of the quarter was also influenced by managers tweaking their portfolios to look more attractive at quarter-end.

“Animal spirits seem to have taken hold here,” said Roy Behren, co-president of Westchester Capital management fund. “It is also quite common for the last couple of days of a quarter to see strength because of the window dressing.”

On Sunday, Canada scrapped its digital services tax targeting US tech firms, just hours before it was due to take effect, in a bid to advance stalled trade negotiations with the United States.

But US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned on Monday that countries could still face sharply higher tariffs on July 9 even if they are negotiating in good faith, and any potential extensions will be up to Trump.

Meanwhile, US Senate Republicans will try to pass Trump’s sweeping tax-cut and spending bill, despite divisions within the party about its expected USD 3.3 trillion hit to the USD 36.2 trillion national debt. Trump wants the bill passed before the July 4 Independence Day holiday.

Key economic data releases this week include monthly non-farm payrolls and the Institute for Supply Management’s survey on manufacturing and services sectors for June.

Several US central bank officials, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak later this week.

A raft of soft economic data and expectations that Trump will replace Powell with someone dovish have pushed up bets of rate cuts from the Fed this year.

On Monday, nine of the 11 S&P indexes closed up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 275.50 points, or 0.63%, to 44,094.77, the S&P 500 gained 31.88 points, or 0.52%, to 6,204.95, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 96.28 points, or 0.48%, to 20,369.73.

Shares of big US banks rose after most cleared the Federal Reserve’s annual “stress test,” paving the way for billions in stock buybacks and dividends.

Leading the S&P 500 were Hewlett-Packard Enterprise, up 11.1 %, First Solar up 8.8 %,and Juniper Networks up 8.45 %.

“The current rally was driven by a few heavyweight stocks that drove indexes up, giving the market a sense of optimism despite rising deficit and unresolved policy issues,” said Cole Smead, CEO and portfolio manager of Smead Capital Management.

“The stock market doesn’t seem to care at all, people think this party is going to go on forever,” he said. “I think this game is over. It’s just a matter of when and how bad it gets.”

Volume on US exchanges was 17.12 billion shares, compared with the 18.23 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Reporting by Sabrina Valle in New York; Additional reporting by Sruthi Shankar and Nikhil Sharma in Bengaluru; Editing by Devika Syamnath and Matthew Lewis)

Gold rises on weaker dollar; investors await US jobs data

Gold edged higher on Monday, supported by a weaker US dollar, while investors hunkered down for US economic data due later this week for signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Spot gold rose 0.6% to USD 3,293.55 per ounce as of 2:00 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) after reaching its lowest point since May 29 earlier in the session. The yellow metal was up for the second straight quarter, rising 5.5%.

US gold futures settled 0.6% higher at USD 3,307.70.

“A weaker dollar today is providing a bit of support. But we’re still within the well-defined range that has dominated since the middle of May,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

The dollar languished against the euro and Swiss franc as markets weighed the prospect of a ballooning US government deficit and the potential for trade deals with major trading partners.

On the trade front, the US and China resolved issues over rare earth minerals and magnet shipments last week, renewing hopes for further talks between the two superpowers. Elsewhere, Canada scrapped its digital services tax targeting US tech firms late Sunday to revive stalled trade negotiations with the US

Gold, traditionally considered a hedge during times of uncertainty, also thrives in a low-interest rate environment.

Investors now await the US ADP employment data, due Wednesday, and Thursday’s initial jobless claims data for hints on the central bank’s potential policy path.

Citi analysts said in a note that they expect gold prices to consolidate between USD 3,100 and USD 3,500 in the third quarter of the year, noting that the late April peak of USD 3,500 may already be the high as the gold market deficit approaches its peak.

Spot silver eased 0.1% at USD 35.93 per ounce, while platinum fell 0.3% to USD 1,334.70, and palladium dropped 3.2% to USD 1,097.24. The three metals were headed for gains so far this quarter.

(Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid, Shailesh Kuber, and Alan Barona)

Oil edges down on easing Middle East risks but gains for a second month

HOUSTON – Oil prices edged down on Monday as investors weighed easing Middle East risks and a possible OPEC+ output increase in August.

Both Brent and US crude oil benchmarks posted their biggest weekly declines since March 2023 last week but rose for the second consecutive month, gaining around 6% and 7% respectively.

Brent futures settled down 16 cents, or 0.2%, to USD 67.61 a barrel and expired on Monday. The more active September contract ended at USD 66.74.

US West Texas Intermediate crude settled down 41 cents, or 0.6%, at USD 65.11 a barrel.

A 12-day war that started with Israel targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 13 sent prices above USD 80 a barrel before sliding back to USD 67.

“This ceasefire that was quickly engineered appears to be holding up, so the supply risk premium that was in place is continuing to be withdrawn in a rapid fashion,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital.

Meanwhile, US crude oil production hit a record 13.47 million barrels per day in April, up from 13.45 million bpd in March, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration as part of its Petroleum Supply Monthly series.

The record US oil production was adding to the bearish sentiment on Monday, Kilduff added.

OPEC+ SET TO BOOST PRODUCTION IN AUGUST

Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week that the group was set to boost production by 411,000 bpd in August after similar increases for May, June and July.

If the increase is agreed, it would bring the total rise in supply from OPEC+ to 1.78 million bpd so far this year, equivalent to over 1.5% of total global demand.

“I believe this potential supply pressure remains under-priced, leaving crude vulnerable to further weakness,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

The oil producer group is set to meet again on July 6.

Some market tightness remains despite rising output, however, said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS.

A Reuters survey found that OPEC oil output rose in May, but gains were limited by cuts by countries that had previously exceeded their quotas. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, meanwhile, made smaller increases than allowed.

Kazakhstan, which has persistently exceeded quotas set by OPEC+, may exceed its previous oil production forecast by around 2% this year following an upgrade to output at its largest Caspian oilfields, Reuters calculations, based on data from state-owned energy company KazMunayGaz, showed.

A survey of 40 economists and analysts in June forecast Brent crude will average USD 67.86 per barrel in 2025, up from May’s USD 66.98 forecast, while US crude is seen at USD 64.51, above last month’s USD 63.35 estimate.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, Seher Dareen in London, and Florence Tan and Sam Li in Singapore. Editing by David Goodman, Chizu Nomiyama, Mark Potter, and Marguerita Choy)

2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle

Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work

Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning

Monthly Economic Update: Fed cuts incoming

Consensus Pricing – June 2025