Gold set for third weekly fall on dollar strength, hawkish Fed worries

Feb 17 (Reuters) – Gold prices edged higher on Friday but were still on track for their third straight weekly dip, weighed down by an overall stronger dollar and bond yields following fresh hawkish rhetoric from US Federal Reserve officials.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at USD 1,842.27 per ounce by 2:40 p.m. ET (1940 GMT), after earlier falling to its lowest since late December. Prices have fallen 1.2% so far this week.

US gold futures settled 0.1% lower at USD 1,850.20.

The dollar’s advance, paired with the hawkish outlook from members of the Fed, was weighing on the market, said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago.

Fed officials this week said the US central bank likely should have lifted interest rates more than it did early this month, with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reiterating the 2% inflation goal.

The dollar index was on track for its third straight week of gains, making bullion less attractive for overseas buyers, while bond yields also climbed.

Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield bullion. Prices of the precious metal are down about 7.3% since its nine-month peak earlier this month.

Goldman Sachs said it expected the Fed to raise rates three more times this year by a quarter of a percentage point each.

Traders await next week’s release of the latest FOMC minutes and US GDP data for more clues on the path of rate hikes.

“The test for the Fed will occur if and when the economy weakens without inflation declining rapidly … should the Fed react to those potential outcomes by easing policy, then gold should perform well,” said Caesar Bryan, portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund.

Spot silver gained 0.7% to USD 21.7586 per ounce, while palladium was down 0.8% at USD 1,499.21.

Platinum was steady at USD 919.00, after earlier touching its lowest since November.

Russia is likely to limit exports of key metals such as palladium if the United States imposes steep taxes on imports of aluminium from Russia, analysts said.

(Reporting by Seher Dareen in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta, Mark Potter and Susan Fenton)

Investors pull cash from classic risk plays as Fed rate picture shifts

LONDON, Feb 17 (Reuters) – Investors turned more cautious in the week to Wednesday, according to data from Bank of America, as a run of data prompted many to raise their forecasts for how high the US Federal Reserve will take interest rates.

BofA Global Research’s weekly “Flow Show”, released on Friday, showed the largest outflows from technology funds since September, the largest outflows from emerging market debt funds in 14 weeks, and the largest outflows from junk debt funds in eight weeks.

Stronger-than-expected data on US employment, retail sales and inflation this month have pushed up expectations for how much higher the Fed will need to raise rates, a development that is typically bad news for riskier stocks and emerging market assets.

BofA analysts said the data means it is “mission very much unaccomplished for the Fed” despite its 450 basis points of monetary tightening in this cycle so far.

“Fed tightening always ‘breaks’ something,” they add.

Emerging market debt funds saw outflows of USD 700 million, the largest weekly outflow in 14 weeks, according to the report which attributed the decline to debt investors reducing risk.

High yield – or junk – debt saw outflows of USD 2.6 billion, the largest in eight weeks, and tech funds had USD 1.1 billion of outflows, the most since September.

Elsewhere, there were USD 5.5 billion inflows to bonds, USD 1 billion inflows to cash, USD 300 million to equities and USD 45 million to gold.

Equity markets have largely shrugged off fears of the impact of higher for longer rates, so far.

The tech heavy Nasdaq is set for a weekly gain and is trading near the five-month high hit in early February, and France’s benchmark CAC 40 index hit a record high on Thursday boosted by solid results at some of the country’s biggest companies, including luxury names and energy firms.

However, BofA analysts said: “Remember ‘buy humiliation, sell hubris’ … this time last year, likes of Moderna, Tesla, Apple widely viewed as “must-own” stocks; this year, it’s likes of Exxon, Raytheon, Hermes … always hedge hubris.”

(Reporting by Alun John; editing by Amanda Cooper and Susan Fenton)

China publishes rules to revive offshore listings

BEIJING, Feb 17 (Reuters) – China’s securities watchdog published rules on Friday to regulate offshore listings, reviving foreign initial public offerings (IPOs) by Chinese firms after a regulatory freeze imposed in July 2021.

The trial rules, published by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and effective from March 31, are designed to guide companies wanting to access liquid capital markets.

That includes in the United States after Beijing and Washington solved a long-standing audit dispute in December, lessening the risk of U.S. delisting for Chinese companies.

“Offshore listing is a key component of China’s capital markets opening,” the CSRC said in a statement.

It said the rules showed China was pursuing “its direction of opening up” in spite of growing uncertainty in the world and that companies will be able to choose listing venues freely as long as they abide by the law.

Under its new filing system, which effectively ends decades of unregulated overseas IPOs by Chinese companies, the CSRC will vet offshore listings.

“With clearer guidelines and less uncertainties, I believe Chinese companies are still inclined to list overseas … geopolitical concerns notwithstanding,” said Daniel Tu, founder of Active Creation Capital.

Law firm Wilson Sonsini’s senior partner Weiheng Chen said the CSRC, and other relevant regulators have the “ultimate gatekeeping power” and can stop any overseas listings that are not compliant or against national or public interests.

Friday’s rules, amending a December draft, stipulate that overseas listings should not jeopardize China’s national interests.

S&P China ADR Index, a gauge of U.S.-listed Chinese enterprises, fell 3.02% after the rules were announced, while the wider market was off 0.28%. Alibaba, the largest U.S.-listed Chinese firm, shed 3.01%.

MASSIVE DROP IN US LISTINGS

Chinese companies raised nearly $230 million in U.S. listings last year, according to Refinitiv data, a massive drop from $12.85 billion in 2021.

Chinese offshore listings ground to a halt after Didi Global Inc’s (DIDI) New York listing in June 2021 that triggered Beijing’s regulatory backlash over data security concerns. It was delisted last June.

China’s tech crackdown also contributed to a near freeze in overseas listings by Chinese companies.

But the decision to allow overseas listings, together with a reduced U.S. risk, has made dealmakers hopeful that Chinese companies will reignite their ambitions to list in major markets such as New York.

On Dec. 15, the U.S. accounting watchdog said it had full access to inspect and investigate firms in China for the first time, countering the risk that around 200 Chinese companies could be kicked off U.S. stock exchanges.

The CSRC said on Friday that companies in sensitive sectors should also undergo data security reviews or obtain clearance from relevant authorities before filing for foreign listings.

It said it would strengthen cooperation with overseas regulators to crack down on misbehaviour such as accounting fraud and book-cooking.

VIE STRUCTURE

The new rules grant the CSRC oversight of offshore listings to Chinese firms with variable interest entity (VIE) structures.

VIE is a structure adopted by most overseas-listed Chinese tech companies, such as Alibaba and JD.com, to skirt Chinese restrictions on foreign investment in certain sectors.

The CSRC said on Friday that some Chinese enterprises “intentionally circumvented” its supervision in recent years, violating industry policies and even jeopardized China’s national security.

However, the regulator said it would allow filings by VIE-structured companies that comply with rules, and support companies’ capital-raising at home and abroad.

Winston Ma, an adjunct professor at NYU Law School, told Reuters that at least a handful of Chinese authorities – in addition to the CSRC – have become relevant in regulating VIE listings, as the securities regulator will seek the opinions of “related supervisory agencies”.

The list includes Ministry of Finance and regulator of data-intensive industries Cyberspace Administration of China, he said.

(Reporting by Scott Murdoch, Samuel Shen, Selena Li, Kane Wu, Ella Cao and Liz Lee; Additional reporting by Bansari Kamdar; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky, Barbara Lewis and William Mallard)

Retailers’ results may be next test for rally in US stocks

NEW YORK, Feb 17 (Reuters) – Earnings results from major retailers in the coming weeks will test the strength of the US stock market rally, as investors gain insight into the health of consumer spending and the fallout on company bottom lines from inflation.

As a tepid fourth-quarter results season comes to an end, Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) are set to report in the coming week, with other high-profile retailers including Best Buy (BBY) and Lowe’s (LOW) due the following week.

How consumers are faring amid soaring prices will be a critical topic for investors, as some have become more confident that the economy will be able to avoid a severe downturn even as the Federal Reserve continues hiking rates to tamp down inflation.

One sign of economic resilience came in the past week, when monthly data showed US retail sales increased by the most in nearly two years in January.

“The retail sales numbers were reasonably strong, and we want to see that confirmation come from the retailers themselves,” said Paul Nolte, market strategist at Murphy and Sylvest Wealth Management.

Nolte is considering buying home-improvement retailer stocks that were hit hard in 2022 as the housing market struggled.

Stocks have run up despite underwhelming fourth-quarter earnings that has S&P 500 firms on track to post a 2.8% drop in profits from the year-ago period, according to Refintiv IBES. Other companies set to report next week include chip company Nvidia (NVDA), COVID-19 vaccine maker Moderna (MRNA) and e-commerce firm eBay (EBAY).

The S&P 500 has gained 6.5% so far in 2023 as of Thursday, with stocks bouncing back from a brutal performance last year.

Retail stocks have put up mixed returns so far in 2023. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), which weights small and large companies fairly evenly, has jumped 17% this year. But the performance has been less rosy for some of the biggest companies.

Shares of Walmart, the world’s largest retailer by sales, have gained only 1.7% in 2023, while shares of Home Depot, the top US home improvement chain, are also up 1.7%. Both companies are set to report on Tuesday and will “set the stage for everyone else,” according to JPMorgan retail analysts.

“We expect HD and WMT’s tone on guidance and the consumer to be cautious at best,” the JPMorgan analysts wrote in an earnings preview note this week. They rate Walmart shares “neutral” and Home Depot as “overweight.”

Among the other retailers set to report in the coming week are TJX Companies (TJX) and Bath & Body Works (BBWI).

Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel, said he will be watching to see if retailers have been able to push up prices to match their costs.

His firm holds shares of a variety of retailers including discounter Dollar Tree (DLTR) and specialty retailers Crocs (CROX) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) but does not own broad retailers like Walmart and Amazon (AMZN).

“We are clearly emphasizing retailers in select industries versus the mass market retailers,” Tuz said. “With the mass retailers, it’s just harder to identify what is going to make them grow.”

Investors next week will also focus on Wednesday’s release of minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting, when the central bank scaled back its rate hikes to a quarter-point after a year of heftier raises.

Since that meeting, data has shown US consumer prices accelerating and monthly producer prices increasing by the most in seven months in January.

Together with a strong US jobs report, the data has led investors to push up expectations for how high the Fed will raise rates and how long they will stay elevated, with futures now pricing in a peak rate of over 5.2% in July.

Extremely robust retailer earnings could fuel worries about a more hawkish response from the Fed, said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services.

“If those numbers come in and are really, really, really strong, that could be this idea that too much good news is bad news from a Fed perspective,” Carlson said.

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Bill Berkrot)

Oil settles down USD 2/bbl, ends week lower on Fed worries, ample supply

Feb 17 (Reuters) – Oil settled down USD 2 a barrel on Friday and ended the week markedly lower, as traders worried that future US interest rate hikes could weigh on demand and got nervous about mounting signs of ample crude and fuel supply.

On Thursday, two Fed officials warned additional hikes in borrowing costs are essential to curb inflation. The sentiments lifted the US dollar, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Brent crude futures settled down USD 2.14 or 2.5%, to USD 83.00 a barrel, falling 3.9% week on week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude settled down USD 2.15, or 2.7%, to USD 76.34, falling 4.2% from last Friday’s settlement.

“Rate hike jitters have returned with a vengeance,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.

Various signs of ample supply also weighed on the market.

Russian oil producers expect to maintain current volumes of crude oil exports, despite the government’s plan to cut oil output in March, the Vedomosti newspaper said on Friday, citing sources familiar with companies’ plans.

The latest snapshot of US supplies, released on Wednesday, showed crude inventories in the week to Feb. 10 rose by 16.3 million barrels to 471.4 million barrels, their highest level since June 2021.

“Because oil storage is at a 19-month high, refiners are going to stretch out turnaround season for as long as they can,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho.

Heating oil cracks fell 5% on Friday as warm weather sapped demand for the fuel in mid-February.

The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by one to 760 in the week to Feb. 17, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co (BKR) said on Friday.

Despite this week’s rig decline, Baker Hughes said the total count was still up 115, or 18%, over this time last year.

Some support came from moves this week by the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to raise their forecasts for global oil demand growth this year, citing expectations for more Chinese demand.

And Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said the current deal by OPEC+, which groups OPEC producers with Russia and others, to cut oil output targets by 2 million barrels per day, would be locked in until the end of the year, adding he remained cautious on Chinese demand.

(Additional reporting by Alex Lawder, Yuka Obayashi and Sudarshan Varadhan; editing by Jason Neely, Kirsten Donovan and David Gregorio)

Wall Street ends down sharply as data fuels rate-hike worries

Feb 16 (Reuters) – Wall Street ended sharply lower on Thursday after unexpectedly strong inflation data and a drop in weekly jobless claims added to fears that the US Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates to tame high prices.

A Labor Department report showed the highest rise in producer prices in seven months in January as the cost of energy products surged.

It also showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, offering more evidence that the labor market remains tight.

Thursday’s economic data and other reports this week paint a picture of still-stubborn inflation and an economy that remains relatively strong in the face of the Fed’s rate hike campaign.

“With data like this, the Fed is going to keep raising rates, and none of us want that,” said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York. “There are at least whispers now of the possibility of a 50-basis-point hike at the next meeting.”

After a selloff in 2022, the S&P 500 has climbed about 7% so far in 2023, fueled by upbeat earnings and cautious expectations the US central bank has completed the brunt of its rate hike campaign.

The Fed is seen pushing the benchmark rate above the 5% mark by May and keeping it above those levels till the year-end.

Also on Thursday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said inflation remains too high, and noted that she was open to raising rates by more than what her colleagues wanted at the last monetary policy meeting. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said continued rate increases will “lock in” slowing inflation, even with continued economic growth.

Selling on Wall Street accelerated late in the session. The S&P 500 declined 1.38% to end at 4,090.51 points.

The Nasdaq declined 1.78% to 11,855.83 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.26% to 33,696.39 points.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) slid 5.7% as the electric vehicle maker said it was recalling 362,000 US vehicles and fixing them via an over-the-air software update after the US auto regulator said its Full Self-Driving Beta software may cause a crash.

Traders exchanged USD 47 billion worth of Tesla shares, accounting for a fifth of all transactions in S&P 500 stocks.

Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) rose 5.2% and hit a nine-month high after the network gear maker raised its full-year earnings forecast.

Roku Inc. (ROKU) soared 11% after the video streaming company forecast first-quarter revenue above market estimates.

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) sank almost 16% after the Canadian e-commerce company forecast slowing revenue growth for the current quarter despite price hikes and new product launches.

Across the US stock market, declining stocks outnumbered rising ones by a 2.5-to-one ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 9 new highs and 1 new low; the Nasdaq recorded 90 new highs and 58 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was relatively light, with 11.0 billion shares traded, compared to an average of 11.7 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions.

(Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru and by Noel Randewich in Oakland, Calif.; Editing by Anil D’Silva, Sriraj Kalluvila, Shinjini Ganguli and Aurora Ellis)

US recap: Latest strong US data fails to trigger EUR/USD breakdown

Feb 16 (Reuters) – The dollar index was little changed after earlier gains on US PPI and claims data that lifted Treasury yields and Fed hike pricing, somewhat subdued by sour housing and Philly Fed reports and doubts about how much more tightening markets can realistically factor in.

Though most February’s US data has been surprisingly strong and inflationary, the market is finding it difficult to price in a Fed rate peak above 5.25%, though the year-end view has rebounded more than 50bp to 5.05% since the Feb. 2 payrolls shock.

Two-year Treasury yields are now up 56bp from Feb. 2’s lows, while 2-year bund yields are up 42bp, during which time EUR/USD fell 3.4% to find support Monday and Thursday at 1.0656/55 by the daily cloud top.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester, a non-voter, said she thought the Fed ought to have raised rates by 50bp, not 25bp, at its last meeting, boosting the rebound in Treasury yields and the dollar initially, though both faded into the London close and New York afternoon.

And the recent consolidation of the dollar’s post-payrolls and CPI gains could persist in the absence of top-tier US data until next Friday. That day’s Japanese CPI release and nomination hearings for the BoJ’s new leadership picks could also create some volatility.

With the BoJ quadrupling the repo rate on various 10-year JGB issues to keep yields below the 50bp yield curve cap, potential policy normalization remains on traders’ radar, even if more on the periphery for now.

EUR/USD rose 0.07% and USD/JPY fell 0.32% and sterling slid 0.11%, as BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill acknowledged some loosening in the tight labor market and as the market no longer fully prices in two more 25bp rate hikes.

AUD/USD recovered from the 6-week lows made after another weak employment report.

(Editing by Burton Frierson; Randolph Donney is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Gold rebounds from 1-month lows as dollar cools

Feb 16 (Reuters) – Gold prices bounced off one-month lows on Thursday, as the dollar gave up most of its gains and as some investors seized the chance to pick up the bullion at relatively cheaper levels.

Spot gold firmed 0.4% to USD 1,842.67 per ounce by 2:45 p.m. ET (1945 GMT).

US gold futures rose 0.4% to settle at USD 1,851.80.

Following strong PPI data and a “compelling case for 50bps at the last meeting” from Cleveland Fed President Mester, gold made new lows, said Tai Wong, a senior trader at Heraeus Precious Metals in New York.

However, two-year yields and the dollar moving to session lows triggered some short-covering in gold after the recent sharp, unpleasant drop, supporting bullion along with some short-term bargain-hunters looking for a quick scalp, Wong said.

Gold prices fell as much as 6.8% from near 10-month highs reached earlier this month to Thursday’s lows.

Data showed the US producer price index bounced to 0.7%, higher than consensus forecast of 0.4%, while jobless claims data showed a resilient labor market.

Following the data, benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields rose to over one-month peaks, while the dollar extended gains to a six-week high, making greenback-priced gold expensive for holders of other currencies.

“Inflation appears to be slowing, but at too slow a pace – it’s possible that rates will have to remain higher for longer and that is not a positive context for gold,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Two additional rate hikes of 25 basis points are expected by the US central bank in March and May. Financial markets are now betting on another increase in June.

Rising US interest rates and bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield bullion.

Spot silver gained 0.4% to USD 21.71 per ounce, platinum rose 1% to USD 924.02, and palladium rose 4.2% to USD 1,525.39.

(Reporting by Seher Dareen and Bharat Govind Gautam in Bengaluru; Editing by Tomasz Janowski, Maju Samuel and Shailesh Kuber)

Oil slightly lower on mixed US economic data, crude stocks growth

NEW YORK, Feb 16 (Reuters) – Oil prices settled slightly lower on Thursday after trading in a narrow range as the market weighed mixed US economic signals and prospects for a Chinese demand recovery with a build in US crude stockpiles.

Brent crude futures settled at USD 85.14 a barrel, losing 24 cents. US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled at USD 78.49 a barrel, shedding 10 cents.

While US data suggested the US jobs market remained robust, a gauge of manufacturing in the mid-Atlantic region unexpectedly plunged.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said the central bank could become more aggressive with rate rises if inflation surprises to the upside. The latest reading on inflation showed prices remaining stubbornly high. But Mester does not expect the US to fall into recession.

The dollar briefly climbed to a six-week peak against a basket of currencies after the US data, weighing on oil, as a strong dollar makes the greenback-denominated commodity more expensive for holders of other currencies.

“Brent failed again to move above the 100-day moving average this week,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

The Brent benchmark has been swinging within an USD 80-USD 90 a barrel range for the past six weeks, while WTI has ranged between USD 72 and USD 83 since December.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday reported US crude oil stockpiles last week rose to their highest level since June 2021 after a larger-than-expected build.

“Oil prices are very choppy at the moment, with traders having a lot to take in,” OANDA analyst Craig Erlam said in a note, pointing to Russia’s 500,000 barrel-per-day cut to oil production in March, a strong Chinese economic recovery and an uncertain global economic outlook.

The prospect of a Chinese demand recovery has contributed to bullish sentiment.

China will account for almost half of global oil demand growth this year after relaxing its COVID-19 curbs, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

The Paris-based watchdog echoed similar views from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which this week raised its 2023 global oil demand growth forecast on Chinese demand growth.

On the supply side, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the current OPEC+ deal to cut oil production targets by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) would be locked in until the end of the year, adding he remained cautious on Chinese demand.

A plan by the administration of US President Joe Biden to release more oil from the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve would also “most likely limit any rallies that develop in coming weeks,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York.

(Additional reporting by Rowena Edwards in London, Mohi Narayan in New Delhi; Editing by Marguerita Choy, Bernadette Baum and David Gregorio)

US recap: Dollar rallies as US data crushes forecasts again

Feb 15 (Reuters) – The dollar index gained 0.8% on Wednesday on broad-based advances following a fresh batch of far-above-forecast US economic reports, highlighted led by a 3% surge in retail sales, with chart resistance against key majors looking vulnerable.

The New York Fed manufacturing index, US manufacturing output and the NAHB housing market index added to the picture with improvements from more negative previous readings.

Taken within the context of the shockingly strong January employment report and still sizzling CPI data, the market is pricing in higher-for-longer Fed rates, now projected to peak at 5.25% and ending 2023 at 5.06%.

EUR/USD fell 0.6%, is by February’s 1.0656 low on EBS and is threatening to close below nearby supports, which would augur a broader retreat toward January’s 1.0482 low by the 38.2% Fibo of the September-February uptrend at 1.0459.

Prices were not helped by ECB President Christine Lagarde’s policy comments, which favored further rate hikes though she noted long-term inflation expectations remained near 2%.

Two-year bund-Treasury yield spreads were only marginally lower, in part due to a 5-bp rebound in 10-2-year Treasury curve inversion trades that nullified the expected rise in 2-year yields in response to inflationary US data.

The associated 4- to 5-bp rise in longer-term Treasury yields was partly a concession ahead of Wednesday’s 20-year Treasury auction.

Sterling tumbled 1.4% toward February’s 1.1961 lows, yanked lower earlier by below-forecast UK inflation data that trimmed BoE rate hike pricing and gilts yields, while Treasury and bund yields advanced.

USD/JPY rose 0.84% to well beyond important resistance near 133 and toward 2023’s 134.78 high on soaring Treasury-JGB yield spreads.

That high looks permeable given new BoJ leadership nominees that look unlikely to rush normalization of the central bank’s ultra-easy policies.

The Australian dollar plunged 1.3% amid risk-off flows stemming from the RBA and other central banks being forced to raise rates further to defeat inflation.

Thursday brings US PPI, jobless claims, Philly Fed and housing starts and several Fed speakers.

(Editing by Burton Frierson; Randolph Donney is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

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