Gold drops as investors digest SVB deal amid banking risks

March 27 (Reuters) – Gold prices fell for a second straight session on Monday as the U.S. dollar firmed, while investors weighed measures taken by authorities to assuage fears of a crisis in the global banking sector.

Spot gold was down 0.5% at USD 1,967.86 per ounce, as of 0632 GMT. US gold futures slipped 0.8% to USD 1,968.90.

The dollar index rose 0.2% and made bullion less affordable for overseas buyers.

First Citizens BancShares Inc will acquire all of Silicon Valley Bank’s deposits and loans from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The news cast an uneasy calm over fragile markets on Monday.

“Markets continue to adopt a cautious stance… On net, the mix of growth worries, lingering concerns of banking stresses could benefit safe-haven proxies such as USD, JPY and gold in the interim,” said OCBC FX strategist Christopher Wong.

Gold had risen above the USD 2,000 mark after the sudden collapse of two US lenders, but has since pulled back from those levels after rescue measures by authorities, including UBS’ takeover of ailing Credit Suisse.

However, worries persisted that regulators are yet to contain the worst shock to the banking sector since the 2008 financial crisis after shares of Deutsche Bank plunged on Friday.

Recent stress in the sector and the possibility of a follow-on credit crunch brings the United States closer to recession, Minneapolis US Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said.

The threat of a recession has resulted in investors increasing their allocation to the precious metal in droves, ANZ said in a note.

Markets are pricing in a 70% chance of the Fed standing pat on interest rates at its May meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

While gold is considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, higher interest rates discourage investment in non-yielding bullion.

Spot silver shed 1% to USD 22.99 per ounce, platinum lost 0.7% at USD 970.51 and palladium slipped 0.9% to USD 1,402.79.

(Reporting by Kavya Guduru in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Sonia Cheema)

Philippine minister says pause in rate rises likely at next bank meeting

MANILA, March 26 (Reuters) – Philippines Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno said on Sunday he believed that the central bank was leaning towards a pause in interest rate rises at its next monetary policy meeting scheduled for May.

“Non-monetary measures to ease inflation could address the problem more effectively”, including those already adopted by fiscal authorities, Diokno said in a statement.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ decided on Thursday to continue fighting inflation with a rate increase, although at the slower pace of 25 basis points (bps) to 6.25%.

BSP Governor Felipe Medalla has said the central bank’s next policy decision move would depend largely on how consumer prices behave in the coming months.

The latest BSP rate increase brought to 425 bps the total tightening it has delivered since May, the full impact of which Diokno said had yet to be absorbed by the economy, considering that monetary policy often works with a long lag.

“In my view, the monetary authorities have done enough. And monetary policy is not the only game in town. Besides … monetary policy works with a long lag,” said Diokno, who sits as a member of the seven-man monetary board of the central bank.

(Reporting by Enrico Dela Cruz; Editing by Michael Perry)

US recap: Dollar and yen up vs euro amid banking stress risk flows

March 24 (Reuters) – The dollar and yen rose against the euro and most major currencies on Friday in a pre-weekend climax of risk-off flows tied to global banking stress and tightening central banks.

USD/JPY enjoyed a late rebound after stocks and Treasury yields recovered from early losses.

EUR/USD was down 0.66% in afternoon trading, with its recovery from Friday’s 1.0714 lows on EBS by the 10-day moving average limited by the sharp rebound in Treasury yields.

Selling pressure also persisted as European bank stocks fell far more than those in the US, led by an 8.5% drop in Deutsche Bank and a 2% dip in the Invesco AT1 bond ETF. UBS, amid a government backed rescue of Credit Suisse, fell 3.55%.

The early scramble into safe havens also reflected pre-weekend derisking, which peaked early in the US session and then retreated.

Above-forecast US March PMI readings encouraged the retreat in risk aversion from its extremes, as did comments by St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard, who said he saw an 80% chance of financial stress abating and the discussion shifting back to inflation.

Friday’s three Fed speakers indicated Wednesday’s 25bp rate hike to fight inflation was justified because financial stability was not jeopardized by failures at certain banks that were not relevant to the banking system as a whole.

As it stands, 2-year Treasury yields, which encapsulate the likely path of Fed policy over that period, fell an incredible 153bp from March 8’s closing peak to Friday’s intraday day low, with yields up roughly 20bp from Friday’s lows ahead of the close.

USD/JPY recovered virtually all its early risk-off losses, but a rebound to reset oversold prices and Treasury yields will likely serve up a new selling opportunity.

Sterling fell 0.5%, partly recovering from earlier risk-off losses.

US March ISMs and payrolls data awaited on April 3, 5 and 7.

(Editing by Burton Frierson; Randolph Donney is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Gold eases from key USD 2,000 level as dollar firms

March 24 (Reuters) – Gold dipped on Friday in a volatile week that saw bullion prices north of the key USD 2,000 figure as bank contagion fears bolstered both safe-haven demand and bets on a pause in Federal Reserve rate hikes.

The US dollar rose about 0.5%, making the greenback-priced gold more expensive among overseas buyers on Friday.

Spot gold fell 0.8% to USD 1,977.01 per ounce by 2:34 p.m. EDT (1834 GMT), after it rose to USD 2,002.89 earlier in the session. US gold futures slipped 0.6% to settle at USD 1,983.80.

A somewhat firmer dollar and a rebound in equity markets and risk appetite are probably what has driven gold lower, said Bart Melek, head of commodity markets strategy at TD Securities. But bullion was likely to get continued support from big macro developments, Melek said.

Rescue measures for struggling banks eased contagion fears earlier in the week, putting gold on course for its first weekly decline in four, down about 0.5%, despite having climbed to its highest in a year above USD 2,000 on Monday.

But banking shares were trounced again on Friday, with European giants Deutsche Bank and UBS knocked by worries that regulators and central banks have yet to contain the worst shock to the sector since the 2008 financial crisis.

“Any concern that pops up about US banks being undercapitalized is going to be a factor for gold to rise,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Fed officials said there was no indication financial stress was worsening as they gathered at a policy meeting this week, a fact that allowed them to stay focused on lowering inflation with another interest rate increase.

The US central bank this week raised rates by an expected quarter of a percentage point but signaled it was on the verge of pausing.

Silver eased 0.1% to USD 23.07, platinum fell 0.7% to USD 977.776, and palladium dropped 0.7% to USD 1,420.40.

(Reporting by Seher Dareen, Bharat Govind Gautam and Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Shilpi Majumdar)

European stocks fall as Deutsche Bank sparks another bank rout

March 24 (Reuters) – A steep sell-off in banking stocks hit European indexes on Friday as worries about the stability of the financial sector intensified, with Deutsche Bank tumbling as cost of insuring the German bank’s debt against the risk of default jumped to a more than four-year high.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 1.4%, but still posted a weekly gain supported by a sharp recovery earlier this week.

“Post what happened to Credit Suisse last weekend, investors don’t want to hold on to positions that have any concern around them over the weekend, getting out of such positions is probably what we’re seeing with Deutsche Bank,” said Paul van der Westhuizen.

“And, of course, there is money to be made if you’re on the right side of an over-reaction in the stocks.”

Deutsche Bank (DBKGn) tumbled 8.5%, after a sharp jump in the cost of insuring against the risk of default. The German heavyweight said that it would redeem USD 1.5 billion of Tier 2 notes due in 2028.

“Deutsche Bank has taken the place of Credit Suisse really as being the next sort of weakest link in the chain, possibly unjustly,” said David Goebel, associate director of investment strategy at Evelyn Partners.

Shares of UBS Group AG (UBSG) and Credit Suisse AG (CSGN) fell 3.6% and 5.2%, respectively, after Bloomberg News reported they were among the banks under scrutiny in a US Department of Justice (DOJ) probe into whether financial professionals helped Russian oligarchs evade sanctions.

European banks fell 3.8% and were set for their third week of declines, after the failure of US mid-sized lenders and the turmoil at Credit Suisse highlighted growing risks to banks in the wake of tightening financial conditions.

Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International (RBIV) slid 7.9% after Reuters reported the European Central Bank was pressing the bank to unwind its highly profitable business in Russia.

European Union leaders and the ECB sought to calm market jitters by presenting a united front on the banking sector, saying EU lenders were well capitalized and liquid thanks to lessons drawn after the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse.

A series of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and other central banks in Europe this week also added to fears of tightening financial conditions even as the US central bank signaled a pause in its hiking cycle.

The STOXX 600 is up just 3.5% on a year-to-date basis, having risen as much as 10% at one point. The US benchmark S&P 500, meanwhile, is up 2.9% so far this year.

An S&P Global survey showed business activity across the eurozone unexpectedly accelerated this month as consumers splashed out on services but weakening demand for manufactured goods deepened the downturn in the factory sector.

(Reporting by Sruthi Shankar and Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; editing by Eileen Soreng, Anil D’Silva and Alex Richardson)

Japanese shares end lower on stronger yen, worries about financial system

TOKYO, March 24 (Reuters) – Japanese shares ended lower on Friday, as a stronger yen raised concerns about denting domestic companies’ earnings, while investors continued to remain concerned about a wider banking crisis.

The Nikkei index slipped 0.13% to close at 27,385.25 and lost 0.19% for the week.

The broader Topix edged down 0.10% to 1,955.32 and posted a 0.2% weekly loss.

“The stronger yen was the reason for the decline in the market today, while investors are still assessing the turmoil in the banking sector,” said Shoichi Arisawa, general manager of the investment research department at IwaiCosmo Securities.

The yen touched a six-week high against the dollar on Friday as traders continue to evaluate the US Federal Reserve’s hints of a pause to interest rate hikes.

Risk appetite has been hurt after the failure of US-based Silicon Valley Bank and Swiss lender Credit Suisse’s liquidity issues raised concerns about a global financial crisis.

Toyota Motor Corp. fell 0.17% and Honda Motor Co Ltd lost 0.62%.

Uniqlo owner Fast Retailing lost 1.01% to drag the Nikkei down the most. Medical equipment maker Terumo Corp slipped 2.79% and robot maker Fanuc Corp fell 0.76%.

Oil explorers fell 1.27% to become the worst performers among the 33 industry sub-indexes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange after oil prices fell.

Financials were weak, with the banking index slipping 0.77% and insurance index losing 0.93%.

Insurer Tokio Marine Holdings Inc fell the most among the top 30 core Topix companies, with a 1.19% drop, followed by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, which lost 1.10%.

Chipmaking equipment maker Tokyo Electron gained 1.83% to provide the biggest support to the Nikkei index. Silicon-wafer maker Shin-Etsu Chemical rose 2.23%.

Toshiba Corp jumped 4.2% after its board accepted a buyout offer from a group led by private equity firm Japan Industrial Partners.

Of the Nikkei components, 69 stocks rose and 149 fell, while seven stocks were flat.

(Reporting by Junko Fujita; Editing by Varun H K and Sonia Cheema)

Foreigners make record weekly Japanese bond buys after BOJ maintains policy

TOKYO, March 24 (Reuters) – Foreign investors made a record weekly purchase of Japanese government bonds last week, after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its ultra loose policy.

Data from Japan’s Ministry of Finance showed that foreign investors bought a net 4.096 trillion yen (USD 31.44 billion) worth of Japanese government bonds (JGB) with maturities of more than one year in the week ended March 18 – the largest amount since the ministry began publishing data in 2005.

Investors also bought safe-haven debt amid worries about a possible banking crisis after a failure of US Silicon Valley Bank and Swiss lender Credit Suisse’s liquidity issues.

The BOJ maintained ultra-low interest rates and held off from making changes to its controversial bond yield control policy at its monetary policy meeting on March 10, defying some expectations of a policy tweak.

JGB yields began falling sharply after the BOJ’s decision, and extended the declines as Silicon Valley Bank’s meltdown and Credit Suisse’s woes drove a flight to safe-haven debt.

Japan’s benchmark 10-year JGB yield, which was hovering at 0.5%, the top end of the BOJ’s policy band, before the BOJ’s policy meeting, fell to as low as 0.240% on March 14.

The BOJ meeting was the last one chaired by current Governor Haruhiko Kuroda before a change in the leadership. Kuroda’s second, five-year term ends on April 8.

With inflation exceeding the BOJ’s target, incoming governor Kazuo Ueda faces the challenge of phasing out the bank’s controversial bond yield control policy.

“The record amount of JGB buying underscores investors’ bet on the policy change,” said Kazuhiko Sano, a strategist at Tokai Tokyo Securities.

“They needed to rush to buy back JGBs to cover their short positions.”

Meanwhile, foreigners withdrew a net 2.38 trillion yen out of Japanese equities, marking their biggest weekly net selling since at least 2018, data from Japanese exchanges shows.

Japanese investors on the other hand purchased a net 3.34 billion yen worth of long-term overseas bonds, the most since March 2020. They also accumulated 118.2 billion yen worth of foreign equities.

(Reporting by Junko Fujita in Tokyo and Gaurav Dogra in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Nivedita Bhattacharjee)

Banks queue round the block at Fed discount window

It’s been a slow day in Asian markets, no doubt with everyone tired and emotional after another rough week.

Japan’s flash PMI edged up to a still-contractionary 48.6, while services fared a bit better at 54.2. Analysts suspect a recession is still likely, but that’s hardly a novelty for Japan.

Presumably, European and US PMIs will have more bearing for monetary policy and markets.

Japanese CPI growth slowed to 3.3% year-on-year as expected thanks to government subsidies on energy, but inflation ex-food and energy climbed to its highest since 1982 at 3.5%.

Normally that might add to pressure for the BOJ to water down its yield curve control, but it’s also less of a burning issue given the recent plunge in global bond yields.

It was notable that US two-year Treasuries kept almost all of their massive gains with yields at 3.82%, having fallen an astonishing 126 basis points in 11 sessions and crushed a host of short positions in the process.

The whole yield curve from one month to 30 years is now below the overnight Fed rate, which is something you see only once in a very blue moon. While the 2-10 curve has dis-inverted markedly, that’s not a sign recession is less likely. Rather, history shows the curve steepens like this just before recession arrives, as short-term yields dive in anticipation of rate cuts.

Fed futures are currently 65% for no hike in May and 85% for a rate cut in July, a U-turn that the Fed is surely hoping to avoid. And it would be extremely unlikely were it just down to inflation and the economy. But there’s the banks.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday tried to reassure markets that they would backstop depositors in a crisis, and it looks like there are bidders for some chunks of Silicon Valley Bank.

Yet the strains are showing in the Fed books as borrowing at its discount window as of Wednesday was a hefty USD $110.2 billion. Lending from the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program ballooned to USD 53.7 billion, suggesting some institutions simply can’t borrow anywhere else.

Even loans to foreign central banks surged to USD 60 billion, implying the supply of dollars through the interbank system is too expensive or just not available for some offshore banks. The Fed really is the lender of last resort.

The ECB is expected to reassure European Union leaders on Friday that euro zone banks are safe, while also pushing them to adopt a full EU deposit insurance scheme.

Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:

– Global PMIs, UK retail sales

– ECB President Lagarde is at the European Council meeting

– Bundesbank President Nagel speaks on inflation and the labour market, so expect fire and brimstone

– Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Bullard gives a cosy fireside chat on the US economy and monetary policy

(Wayne Cole)

PH central bank focusing on inflation; exchange rate not a problem

MANILA, March 24 (Reuters) – The Philippine central bank can focus on fighting inflation as the peso is not a problem, its governor said on Friday.

Robust foreign exchange inflows are supporting the peso, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Felipe Medalla said in a speech at a thrift bankers’ event.

The BSP will do everything in its power to bring inflation below 4% next year, he said.

The central bank expects inflation to average 6.0% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024.

(Reporting by Neil Jerome Morales; Editing by Kanupriya Kapoor)

Oil settles down on worries over European banks, US crude reserve

March 24 (Reuters) – Oil prices settled lower on Friday as European banking shares fell and after US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said refilling the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) may take several years, dampening demand prospects.

Brent crude settled down 92 cents, or 1.2%, to USD 74.99. West Texas Intermediate US crude futures fell 70 cents, or 1%, to USD 69.26 a barrel.

Both benchmarks rose this week as banking sector turmoil eased. Brent futures rose 2.8% in the week while US crude futures rose 3.8%. Last week, both benchmarks posted their biggest declines in months.

“We’re riding along macroeconoic headwinds, and there’s a newfound correlation with equities” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York.

Banking stocks slid in Europe with Deutsche Bank and UBS Group slammed by worries that the worst problems in the sector since the 2008 financial crisis could persist.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen convened an unscheduled meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council on Friday morning.

The dollar rose 0.6% against other currencies, which also pressured oil, making crude more expensive to holders of other currencies.

The White House said in October it would buy back oil for the SPR when prices were at or below about USD 67-USD 72 per barrel.

On Thursday, Granholm told lawmakers it would be difficult to take advantage of low prices this year to add to stockpiles, which are at their lowest level since 1983 following sales directed by President Joe Biden last year.

Oil drew some support from strong demand expectations from China. Goldman Sachs said commodities demand was surging in the world’s biggest oil importer, with oil demand topping 16 million bpd.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said a previously announced cut of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in Russia’s oil production would be from an output level of 10.2 million bpd in February, the RIA Novosti news agency reported.

That means Russia aims to produce 9.7 million bpd between March and June, according to Novak, a much smaller output cut than Moscow previously indicated.

(Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar in London; Yuka Obayashi in Tokyo and Trixie Yap in Singapore; Editing by Marguerita Choy, Louise Heavens and David Gregorio)

2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle

Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work

Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning

Inflation Update: Prices rise even slower in May

Monthly Recap: BSP to outpace the Fed in rate cuts