Stocks fall, US dollar up ahead of Powell testimony

NEW YORK, June 20 (Reuters) – Global stock indexes fell, and the dollar index inched up on Tuesday as investors weighed the US interest rate outlook ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony.

US Treasury yields eased.

Adding to the uncertainty over the rate outlook, a report showed groundbreaking on US single-family homebuilding projects surged in May by the most in more than three decades, and permits for future construction also rose.

After lifting rates by 5 percentage points since March 2022, the Fed this month took a breather to assess the effects of its actions. Rate hikes could resume next month, however, with inflation still too high.

Powell’s testimony before the US House of Representatives’ Financial Affairs Committee is due Wednesday.

“If Mr. Powell remains adamant that the central bank is not done raising interest rates to crush inflation, that could help the dollar stabilize after the big declines we saw last week,” said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera.

Against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar was up 0.06% on the day.

The Australian dollar fell after its latest central bank meeting minutes showed that keeping interest rates unchanged had been under consideration.

Investors also were digesting China’s move to cut its benchmark loan prime rates (LPR) for the first time in 10 months on Tuesday. Among Beijing’s moves to stimulate the country’s slowing recovery, the People’s Bank of China lowered the medium-term lending facility rate on Thursday.

Energy led declines among the major S&P 500 sectors, with oil prices falling on a mixed demand outlook from China.

On Wall Street, the Dow fell 245.25 points, or 0.72%, to 34,053.87; the S&P 500
lost 20.88 points, or 0.47%, at 4,388.71; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 22.28 points, or 0.16%, to 13,667.29.

US markets were closed for a public holiday on Monday.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index lost 0.59% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe
shed 0.55%.

US Treasury yields fell, in line with declines in Europe, as investors priced in expectations that the Fed may be near the end of its rate-hiking cycle. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 4.4 (bps) at 3.724%.

Brent futures for August delivery fell 19 cents to settle at USD 75.90 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for July delivery fell USD 1.28 to USD 70.50.

Spot gold dropped 0.7% to USD 1,936.06 an ounce.

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; additional reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed in New York, Joice Alves in London, Selena Li in Hong Kong, and Anisha Sircar in Bengaluru; editing by Susan Fenton, Jason Neely, and Richard Chang)

China, Hong Kong stocks fall as rate cut disappoints

SHANGHAI, June 20 (Reuters) – China and Hong Kong stocks fell on Tuesday after the country cut benchmark lending rates less than expected, and Antony Blinken’s Beijing visit signalled little improvement in Sino-US ties, sending property and tech shares lower.

** The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.2% by the lunch break, while the blue-chip CSI300 Index edged slightly lower. Hong Kong benchmark Hang Seng lost 2.6%.

** China cut its key lending benchmarks on Tuesday to shore up a slowing economic recovery, but the easing was not as large as expected.

** Both the one-year, and five-year loan prime rates (LPRs), were lowered by 10 basis points, though many had anticipated a bigger cut to the five-year rate, on which mortgage rates are based.

** “Such marginal easing will probably help prevent growth from slowing sharply, but is unlikely to offer a strong boost to reverse the growth slippage in the near future,” analysts at BofA global research said in a note.

** The Hang Seng Mainland Property Index tumbled 3.8%, while an index tracking China-listed developers dropped 1.3%.

** The market was also disappointed at the lack of major breakthroughs during a rare visit to Beijing by US Secretary of State Blinken, during which China and the United States only agreed to try and stabilise their intense rivalry to avoid veering into conflict.

** “China and the US didn’t reach consensus on any major issues during the meeting,” Chinese political commentator Lu Kewen wrote. “There’s also relative big discrepancy in the direction of Sino-US relationship.”

** Technology shares, caught in the crossfire of Sino-US competition, fell. The Hang Seng Tech Index declined 2.6%, while China’s tech-focused STAR market dropped 0.6%. Bucking the trend, the CSI defense Index jumped 3%.

** China’s tourism shares and hotel operators also fell, despite the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival that starts on Thursday, reflecting weak consumer confidence.

(Reporting by Shanghai Newsroom; Editing by Varun H K)

Gold flat on firmer dollar, investors eye Powell testimony

June 20 (Reuters) – Gold prices were stuck in a relatively narrow range on Tuesday as market participants looked forward to an upcoming testimony by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later this week, while a firmer dollar also kept bullion in check.

Spot gold held its ground at USD 1,950.19 per ounce by 0447 GMT, while US gold futures fell 0.5% to USD 1,962.00.

“The more cautious risk tone in today’s session may aid to drive some safe-haven flows into gold, but while that can provide some short-term cushion, the upside could still be capped,” IG market analyst Yeap Jun Rong said.

Stocks in Asia fell as investors worried that China’s latest rate cut was not enough to boost confidence in the weakening economy and awaited a wider stimulus package by Beijing.

Markets were also focusing on Powell’s congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday for further guidance on interest rates following the Fed’s hawkish pause on monetary policy tightening last week.

While gold is considered a hedge against inflation, interest rate hikes raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

“With expectations previously pricing for a more dovish outcome from the Fed, the recent pushback by the central bank has been disappointing to some, which translates to some offloading in place,” IG’s Jun Rong said.

The US dollar, meanwhile, held firm making bullion less attractive for overseas buyers.

Expectations of a rate cut this year are waning, but “the Fed will be ending its hiking cycle sometime this year and start cutting next year. This constitutes a structural support for gold over the medium and long term,” ANZ said in a note.

Among other precious metals, spot silver was flat at USD 23.9284 per ounce and palladium fell 0.8% to USD 1,396.01.

Platinum dropped 0.6% to USD 969.82, set for a third consecutive session of losses.

(Reporting by Arundhati Sarkar in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Sohini Goswami)

Bankers see stable interest rates reviving Asia’s capital markets in second half

SYDNEY/SINGAPORE, June 20 (Reuters) – Asia’s dealmakers are counting on a pause in rate hikes globally and an economic rebound in China to rekindle activity in the region’s equity capital markets, after volumes in the first half of the year sank to their lowest in four years.

First-half Asia Pacific equity capital markets volumes dropped 16% to USD 117.2 billion from the same period in 2022, including a 34% drop in initial public offerings (IPOs) to USD 34.3 billion, Refinitiv data showed.

Flatlining activity has prompted some banks like Goldman Sachs (GS) to start laying off staff across nearly all major investment banking divisions.

“For investor sentiment to return for IPOs we need to see a more stable interest rate environment in the US, more economic stimulus from China, and an improving geopolitical backdrop,” said Cathy Zhang, head of Asia Pacific equity capital markets at Morgan Stanley.

On global league tables, China now holds the top two spots for IPOs. Companies listing on Shanghai’s STAR Market raised USD 10.1 billion in the first half, nearly double the proceeds of New York deals, while companies debuting on Shenzhen’s ChiNext market raised USD 8.1 billion.

Hong Kong, traditionally known as a major global listing venue, raised just USD 1.9 billion in the first half, while Indonesia emerged as a rare bright spot in the region with USD 1.6 billion in new share sales.

Despite the ongoing downturn, bankers are betting on the stabilization of interest rates globally and a Chinese economic rebound spurred by stimulus measures to boost deal activity in the next six months.

“We are hoping to see more IPO activity in the second half and starting to see some green shoots in the US and Europe,” said Udhay Furtado, Citigroup’s co-head of Asia equity capital markets.

“Monetary policy is the number one (macro) driver (to support issuance conditions). It impacts sentiment, it impacts volatility and valuations. In aggregate that is the biggest factor.”

As bankers scan their pipeline of IPO candidates for the second half, larger transactions in the region are being favored to help kick-start activity.

“The first IPOs that will attract broad global investor attention will be larger companies that have scale, strong earnings and will have a liquid after-market,” said Sunil Dhupelia, JPMorgan’s co-head of Asia equity capital markets ex-Japan, adding consumer, clean energy and sectors linked to China’s reopening deals would be a key focus.

In terms of potential big deals, China’s JD.com has filed to spin off units JD Industrial and JD Property, each to raise USD 1 billion in Hong Kong deals this year.

Similarly, Alibaba Group has said it would separate six business units that would also look to carry out IPOs or capital raisings to fund future growth.

A rush of IPOS in Indonesia worth USD 1.64 billion led that market to double its share of the global new listing volumes in the first half compared to the same time last year.

Most of the deals came from miners and state-owned enterprises. Bankers expect there will be more in the second half in Southeast Asia from the likes of Indonesia’s Pertamina Hulu Energi’s planned USD 1.4 billion IPO and Amman Mineral Internasional’s expected USD 880-million float.

“We understand there are still several potential listings in the works in the region which should bolster new issuances raised,” said Edmund Leong, Head of Group Investment Banking, UOB.

(Reporting by Scott Murdoch in Sydney and Yantoultra Ngui in Singapore; Additional Reporting by Vineet Sachdev in Bangalore; Editing by Sonali Paul)

China to cut rates, but by how much?

June 20 (Reuters) – The People’s Bank of China takes center stage on Tuesday with a near-certain interest rate cut, according to the expectations of investors, who are also trying to read the political tea leaves from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing.

Trading volume across the region should pick up after US markets were closed Monday for the Juneteenth holiday, and Malaysian trade, Japanese industrial output, and Hong Kong inflation data could all move asset prices in these countries.

All eyes, however, are on Beijing.

All 32 market watchers in a Reuters poll said the PBOC will cut key lending benchmarks for the first time in 10 months, as authorities battle to shore up a slowing recovery in the world’s second-largest economy and ward off the threat of deflation.

The PBOC last week lowered short- and medium-term policy rates, paving the way for lower benchmark borrowing costs. Most poll participants expect the one-year loan prime rate to be cut by 10 basis points to 3.55%, and half said they forecast a deeper cut of at least 15 bps to the five-year LPR.

The weakness of recent economic data suggests the anticipated loosening of policy on Tuesday will be on the aggressive side and will be followed with further easing in the coming months.

Several major banks have cut their 2023 GDP growth forecasts for China to a 5.1% to 5.7% range from an earlier range of 5.5% to 6.3%.

Chinese stocks on Monday posted their biggest fall in two weeks, but the weakness was not confined to China. The MSCI World index came off last week’s 14-month high, Japan’s Nikkei lost 1%, and Hong Kong tech and the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index both had their biggest falls in three weeks.

That’s the economic and market backdrop to US Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to Beijing, which ended on Monday with all the diplomatic courtesies and protocols one would expect, but with no major breakthrough for investors to cling to.

The two countries agreed to stabilize their rivalry so it doesn’t veer into conflict, hailed “progress” and stressed the importance of a more stable relationship. But they appeared entrenched in their positions over everything from Taiwan to trade, including US actions toward China’s chip industry, human rights, and Russia’s war against Ukraine.

The yuan remains under pressure, anchored near seven-month lows against the dollar, and sentiment toward the Chinese currency will not have been boosted by the auspicious start to yuan-denominated trading in certain Hong Kong stocks on Monday.

The 24 companies that debuted the yuan-denominated stock trading scheme attracted a small fraction of their stocks’ trading volume, as interest in using the new currency option was dwarfed by the Hong Kong dollar.

It is early days, of course, but perhaps another reminder that the yuan’s road to internationalization is a very long one.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:

– China interest rate decision

– Japan industrial production (April)

– Malaysia trade (May)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

Dollar nudges up, sterling near 14-month highs ahead of BoE decision

LONDON, June 19 (Reuters) – The dollar edged higher and the UK pound was near a 14-month peak on Monday as investors digested a slew of monetary policy decisions by central banks last week and looked ahead to a crunch decision by the Bank of England on Thursday.

Currency market moves have been dominated by central bank efforts globally to curb high inflation, with the dollar index sliding to its biggest weekly fall since January last week after the US Federal Reserve skipped a rate rise.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six major counterparts, ticked up 0.2% to 102.480. It remained not far from a one-month low of 102.00 it touched on Friday. US markets are closed on Monday for a holiday.

Investors expect the Bank of England to hike rates by at least 25 basis points when it meets on Thursday, as it battles inflation running at more than four times its target.

The pound is changing hands near 14-month highs against the dollar on expectations UK rate rises will outpace other major economies. The pound edged down 0.2% at USD 1.27960.

Money markets place a 72% chance of the BoE opting for a 25 basis points hike and a 28% likelihood of a 50-basis-point jump.

In a busy week for central banks last week, the European Central Bank on Thursday raised rates by 25 basis points and left the door open to more hikes, while the Bank of Japan’s decision on Friday to stick with its ultra-easy policy kept the yen fragile.

Euro zone inflation is at risk of overshooting recently lifted forecasts and the ECB should err on the side of raising rates too much rather than too little, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said on Monday.

The bloc’s chief economist Philip Lane earlier said the ECB was likely to raise rates again next month but the September meeting is too far away and the decision will be shaped by incoming data.

The euro dipped 0.2% to USD 1.09190, trading close to a one-month peak, while the yen was broadly flat at 141.840, near a seven-month low of 142.005 earlier on Monday.

Traders will closely watch US congressional testimony scheduled to be given by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday and Thursday this week for any hints on the future path for rates in the world’s largest economy.

Currency analysts at MUFG said in a note that the testimony was one of the important risk events for the dollar this week, but said they expected similar messaging following the Fed decision last week.

“The Fed was clear that they now felt they could slow the pace of hikes but that the decision to skip a hike this month did not mean the hiking cycle was over,” the analysts said.

Markets are pricing in a 72% probability of the Fed hiking by 25 basis points next month, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

(Reporting by Iain Withers, additional reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Emma Rumney, Marguerita Choy and Sharon Singleton)

Stocks rally stalls, eyes on Powell testimony for US rate clues

LONDON, SYDNEY, June 19 (Reuters) – Global shares fell from 14-month highs hit last week, as investors awaited testimony from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in markets that remain dominated by monetary policy bets.

The MSCI’s broad gauge of world stocks softened by 0.3%, with Wall Street markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 share index lost 0.7%. Short-term UK government bonds continued selling off ahead of the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision on Thursday, at which it is widely expected to lift interest rates for the 13th consecutive meeting.

After a week in which the stock market cheered the Fed’s decision to skip a rate increase in June, Powell is scheduled to deliver congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday.

Hopes that the Fed will end its most aggressive rate increase campaign in decades are boosting global stock indices dominated by the US tech megacaps that tend to outperform when risk appetite is buoyed by easier monetary policy.

Billions of dollars have flowed into big tech in recent weeks, with analysts citing the productivity-improving potential of artificial intelligence for the rally.

“The obvious narrative of AI has dominated this rally in tech stocks,” said Dan Cartridge, portfolio manager at Hawksmoor.

“But a lot of it is also to do with interest rate expectations,” he added, warning that the Fed staying hawkish would mean “we quite quickly see valuation compression again”.

In Europe, sterling traded near its highest against the dollar since April 2022, at USD 1.279.

Bets that the Bank of England would raise interest rates to a 15-year high this week, as inflation continues to run at more than four times its target, have bolstered the pound. Money markets now put a 75% chance of the BoE opting for a 25-basis-point (bp) rate rise and a 25% likelihood of a 50 bp hike.

Two-year British government bond yields, which reflect rate expectations and rise when the price of the debt instruments falls, added 7 bps to 5.01% – surpassing last week’s 15-year high. The 10-year British gilt yield stood at 4.462%, in an inverted yield curve pattern that can precede recessions.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei tumbled 1%, edging down from three-decade highs.

Chinese blue chips fell 0.9%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slumped 1.2%, as investors’ hopes of forceful economic stimulus from Beijing were dashed by the lack of concrete details from a cabinet meeting on Friday.

Goldman Sachs on Sunday cut its forecast for China’s GDP growth this year to 5.4% from 6.0%, joining other major banks to slash growth expectations for the world’s second-largest economy.

But the People’s Bank of China is also widely expected to cut its benchmark loan prime interest rates on Tuesday, following a similar reduction in medium-term policy loans last week.

Elsewhere, the dollar index was little changed against major peers at 102.33 on Monday, after falling 1.2% the previous week, the most in five months.

The yen was undermined by Friday’s dovish Bank of Japan meeting, touching a seven-month low of 141.97 per dollar, while the hawkish European Central Bank, which raised rates by a quarter point last week, helped the euro hold near a five-week top at USD 1.092.

In oil markets, Brent crude was steady at USD 76.65 a barrel.

Gold prices were flat at USD 1,954.39 per ounce.

(Reporting by Naomi Rovnick and Stella Qiu; Editing by Tom Hogue, Gerry Doyle, Emma Rumney and Sharon Singleton)

Gold eases on firmer dollar as traders await more Fed guidance

June 19 (Reuters) – Gold prices moved lower in holiday-thinned trade on Monday, as the US dollar bounced back from the previous session’s lows, with markets looking ahead to US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on Capitol Hill later in the week.

Spot gold was down 0.3% to USD 1,952.00 per ounce by 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT). US gold futures fell 0.4% to USD 1,964.00. Trading is expected to be slow with US markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday.

The dollar index edged up from a one-month low hit on Friday. A stronger dollar makes bullion less attractive for buyers holding other currencies.

The question remains on what would it take to make gold break out of its range-bound trading between USD 1,940 and USD 1,980, “given that the events of the last week failed to ultimately do it,” Craig Erlam, senior markets analyst at OANDA, said.

Bullion posted a 0.2% weekly fall last week as traders ramped up bets for a July rate hike after Fed officials struck a hawkish tone in their first comments since the central bank this month held interest rates steady after 10 straight hikes.

Markets are now awaiting Powell’s congressional testimonies on Wednesday and Thursday for cues on future rates.

“Real interest rates will continue to rise as inflation falls later in the year, reducing gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset, and should strengthen the dollar,” Heraeus analysts wrote in a note.

Additionally, the European Union awaits its inflation print on Wednesday, with markets having largely priced in a rate hike in July, while the Bank of England is expected to raise rates by another 25 bps on Thursday.

Interest rate hikes raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Spot silver fell 0.7% to USD 23.98 per ounce, platinum was down 0.5% to USD 977.25, while palladium dropped 0.7% to USD 1,400.65.

(Reporting by Seher Dareen in Bengaluru; Editing by Varun H K and Sonia Cheema and Chizu Nomiyama)

Oil slides more than USD 1 on China growth uncertainties

TOKYO, June 19 (Reuters) – Global oil prices fell more than USD 1 on Monday, backing off last week’s gains, as questions over China’s economy outweighed OPEC+ output cuts and the seventh straight drop in the number of oil and gas rigs operating in the United States.

Brent crude lost USD 1.15, or 1.5%, to trade at USD 75.46 a barrel by 0350 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down USD 1.09, or 1.5%, to USD 70.69.

Last week, Brent posted a gain of 2.4% and WTI rose 2.3%.

“China’s economic uncertainties may have caused the selloff after a two-day rebound in oil markets ahead of The People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) decision on its loan prime rates (LPR) this week,” said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets.

A number of major banks have cut their 2023 gross domestic product growth forecasts for China after May data last week showed the post-COVID recovery in the world’s second-largest economy was faltering.

PBOC is widely expected to cut its benchmark loan prime interest rates on Tuesday, following a similar reduction in medium-term policy loans last week to shore up a shaky economic recovery.

Sources have told Reuters that China will roll out more stimulus support for its slowing economy this year, but concerns over debt and capital flight will keep the measures targeted at shoring up weak demand in the consumer and private sectors.

Still, China’s refinery throughput rose in May to its second-highest total on record, helping to boost last week’s gains, and US energy firms cut the number of working oil and natural gas rigs for a seventh week in a row for the first time since July 2020.

The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by 8 to 687 in the week to June 16, the lowest since April 2022.

Oil prices on Monday are also lower on expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, or OPEC+, will struggle to get compliance with production quotas, said Edward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA.

“Rosneft is suggesting the cartel of oil producers focuses on exports and not production,” Moya said, referring to comments made by Igor Sechin, head of Russian energy major Rosneft (ROSN).

Speaking at an economic forum on Saturday, Sechin said it would be appropriate for OPEC+ to monitor oil export volumes as well as production quotas due to the different sizes of each country’s domestic markets.

Earlier this month, OPEC+ had agreed on a new oil output deal. The group’s biggest producer Saudi Arabia also pledged to make a deep cut to its output in July.

(Reporting by Katya Golubkova in Tokyo and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by Tom Hogue)

Funds bet on even deeper US yield curve inversion: McGeever

ORLANDO, Florida, June 18 (Reuters) – Speculators went into the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting last week holding their biggest ever net short position in two-year Treasuries futures and betting on a further inversion of the US yield curve.

Whether the Fed hikes interest rates again after its pause this month remains to be seen, but funds’ yield curve trade looks on the money – short-dated yields are surging above 10-year borrowing costs and the gap is approaching historic levels.

The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data shows that funds increased their record net short positions in two-year Treasuries futures in the week through June 13 to more than 1 million contracts and reduced their net short position in the 10-year space for a second week.

A short position is essentially a wager an asset’s price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. In bonds, yields rise when prices fall and move lower when prices increase.

Hedge funds and speculators take positions in bonds futures for hedging purposes, so the CFTC data is not always a reflection of purely directional bets. But it is often a reasonable proxy and a decent indicator of relative value trades.

Funds expanded their already record net short two-year Treasuries futures position to more than 1 million contracts for the first time. The scale of the move lately is remarkable – the net short position has more than doubled in just two months.

At the same time, funds are scaling back their bearish bets on 10-year bonds. They cut their net short position to 691,853 contracts from 753,301 in the week to June 13, bringing the two-week reduction to nearly 160,000 contracts, the biggest move in over a year.

Notably, funds’ net short two-year Treasuries position now exceeds their net short 10-year Treasuries position by some 354,000 contracts. That’s the biggest gap in two years and among the largest on record.

If this is indeed hedge funds betting on an inverted 2s/10s yield curve, they are sitting pretty. The curve, which has been inverted for almost a year, is now inverted by around 95 basis points – that’s doubled in a month and within sight of the 110-bps inversion before the US banking shock in March.

That was the deepest inversion since 1981 and is proving to be a head-scratcher for investors.

An inverted 2s/10s curve has preceded every recession in the past 40 years, as relatively high short-term borrowing costs choke growth, tighten financial conditions, and hit banks’ profits. It may do so again this time but there is no evidence yet, despite the remarkable length and scale of the inversion.

The US regional banking shock in March seems to be in the rear-view mirror. Fed officials have raised their median interest rate projections to include a further 50 basis points of tightening this year, while Wall Street is holding near 14-month highs and volatility across equities, bonds and currencies is plunging.

Risk assets appear to be pricing out recession risk.

“But the yield curve seems to be telling a different story, especially as the New York Fed’s recession probabilities model, which uses the spread between the 10-year and three-month Treasury yield to predict recession twelve months ahead, is at a 70% recession probability for the first time since the 1980s,” Barclays analysts wrote on Friday.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Tom Hogue)

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