Oil extends gains, hovers at four-month highs on OPEC+ cuts

SINGAPORE, Aug 7 – Oil prices extended gains on Monday to touch their highest levels since mid-April after top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia pledged to keep supplies down for another month to tighten global markets further and support prices.

Brent crude futures rose 25 cents, or 0.3%, to USD 86.49 a barrel by 0023 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at USD 83.05 a barrel, up 23 cents, or 0.3%.

Both contracts notched their sixth consecutive weekly gains last week, the longest winning streak since December 2021 to January 2022.

Several factors have underpinned prices in recent weeks including expectations of US interest rate hikes tapering off, a reduction in OPEC+ supplies and hopes of stimulus boosting oil demand recovery in the world’s top crude importer China after a dismal second quarter.

The world’s top exporter Saudi Arabia on Thursday extended its voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to the end of September, adding that it could be extended beyond then or deepened. The kingdom’s production for September will be around 9 million bpd.

Russia said on Thursday would cut oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September. In addition, a Russian warship was last week seriously damaged in a Ukrainian naval drone attack on Russia’s Black Sea navy base at Novorossiysk. The port that handles 2% of the world’s oil supply has resumed operations.

Saudi Arabia’s comments that the cuts may be deepened caught the attention of the market, ANZ analysts said in a note.

Tightening supplies and falling inventories have also seen key physical crude market indicators strengthen in recent weeks, the ANZ analysts added.

In line with production cuts, Saudi Aramco raised on Saturday the official selling prices for most grades it sells to Asia for a third month in September.

OPEC+’s output cuts, China’s stimulus measures, and an improved US economic outlook are supporting crude prices, CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said in a note, although she said prices were approaching near-term resistance of their April highs.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said a sustained break for WTI above USD 84.00 a barrel would open a move towards USD 93.50.

Investors will watch for Chinese economic data this week to gauge Beijing’s appetite for more stimulus measures to support the world’s second-largest economy.

In the US, the number of operating oil rigs fell by four to 525 last week, dropping for an eighth week in a row to their lowest since March 2022, Baker Hughes said in its weekly report on Friday.

(Reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Jamie Freed)

Asia shares wary ahead of US, China inflation data

SYDNEY, Aug 7 – Asian share markets started in a cautious mood on Monday after a mixed US jobs report sparked a rally in beaten-down bonds, but new hurdles lay ahead in the shape of US and Chinese inflation figures due later this week.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan were a fraction lower in thin trade, after losing 2.3% last week.

Japan’s Nikkei slipped 1.0% to test its July low. A summary of the last Bank of Japan meeting showed members felt making yield policy more flexible would help extend the life of its super-easy stimulus.

Going the other way, S&P 500 futures added 0.2% and Nasdaq futures 0.3% in early trade.

With roughly 90% of S&P 500 earnings reported, results are 4% better than consensus estimates with more than 79% of companies beating the Street. Results due this week include Walt Disney and News Corp.

Data on US consumer prices due Wednesday are forecast to show headline inflation picking up slightly to an annual 3.3%, but the more important core rate is seen slowing to 4.7%.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs see a downside risk to the numbers in part due to falling car prices, an outcome that might help keep the bond rally alive and kicking.

In China, the market is looking for further signs of deflation with annual consumer prices seen down around 0.5%, and producer prices falling 4%.

Any upside surprises would be a test for Treasuries which bear steepened markedly early last week ahead of a flood of new borrowing. In the event, a mixed payrolls report helped reverse much of the losses, particularly at the short tend.

Futures imply only a 12% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, and 24% for a rise by yearend.

Michael Gapen, an economist at BofA, cautioned the market was still expecting too much policy easing next year given the recent run of resilient economic data.

“We now expect a soft landing for the U.S. economy, not the mild recession we had previously forecasted,” wrote Gapen.

“While the market implies between 120-160bps of Fed cuts in 2024 we look for only 75bps,” he added. “There’s simply less reason for the Fed to quickly pivot to rate cuts in 2024 when growth is positive and unemployment is low.”

As a result, the bank raised its year-end forecast for two-year and 10-year yields by 50 basis points to 4.75% and 4% respectively.

On Monday, two-year yields were a tick higher at 4.80%, with the 10-year at 4.06%.

The pullback in yields took some steam out of the US dollar, which was idling at 141.90 yen and short of last week’s top of 143.89.

The euro held at USD 1.1000, having bounced from a trough of USD 1.0913 last week.

The dip in the dollar helped gold hold at USD 1,942 an ounce, after Friday’s rally from USD 1,928.90.

Oil prices stood firm having rallied for six straight weeks amid tightening supplies. The 17% climb in Brent combined with upward pressure on food prices from the war in Ukraine and global warming, is a threat to hopes for continued disinflation across the developed world.

Brent LCOc1 rose 17 cents to USD 86.41 a barrel, while US crude gained 12 cents to USD 82.94.

(Reporting by Wayne Cole;
Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

((Wayne.Cole@thomsonreuters.com; 612 9171 7144; Reuters Messaging: wayne.cole.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

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Dodging the US curve ball

Aug 4 (Reuters) – Investors in Asia may well have one aim in mind Friday – get through the day unscathed and close out what has perhaps been the first proper ‘risk off’ week since the US regional banking shock in March.

The creeping rise in volatility and heavy selling this week can be blamed on a few factors, like Japan’s surprise policy shift and Fitch’s shock US credit rating downgrade, but one culprit is emerging above all others – the US yield curve.

The long end of the US Treasury curve is getting crushed, triggering a surge in long-dated yields and ‘steepening’ of the curve. The rapid moves are unnerving investors and come just as many stock markets are at or near historical highs.

The Asian economic data and corporate events calendar on Friday is light, with only Philippines inflation and Singapore retail sales on tap, leaving regional markets beholden to global risk sentiment.

After-the-bell earnings on Thursday from Apple and Amazon could soothe investors’ nerves on Friday ahead of the latest US employment report later in the day. Overall, the two tech giants reported fairly strong results and bullish outlooks.

But right now, it’s all about the US yield curve.

The 2s/10s curve is around 22 basis points steeper this week. Excluding the US regional banking sector shock in March, that would be the biggest weekly steepening since April last year, bigger than anything around the pandemic, and one of the biggest in well over a decade.

The 10-year and 30-year yields are at their highest levels since November, comfortably above 4.0%, and the latter is on track for its biggest weekly rise this year.

The S&P 500 is having its worst week since March, down 1.7% and only its third down week in 12, and the MSCI World index is on a similar track, already down more than 2% on the week.

Global currency market and S&P 500 equity volatility are the highest in two months, and implied volatility in dollar/yen trading is registering its steepest weekly rise since March.

Asian stocks ex-Japan have underperformed this year, so the week isn’t looking quite so alarming. Still, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is down 2.5%, wiping out all the previous week’s gains and poised to register its worst week in six.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:

– Philippines CPI inflation (July)

– Singapore retail sales (June)

– US non-farm payrolls, unemployment (July)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Deepa Babington)

Wall Street closes near flat as Treasury yields surge

Aug 3 (Reuters) – US stocks closed little changed on Thursday after a choppy trading session, as investors weighed another rise in Treasury yields with the latest batch of economic data and earnings.

The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 4.198% during the session, the highest since November, extending its climb from a day earlier following Fitch’s downgrade of the top-tier US credit rating. In late afternoon trade, the 10-year yield had dipped below 4.194.

“It’s really relative to just pricing against bond yields”, said Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at US Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis. “Higher yield on 10-year treasuries, … has challenged the attractiveness of stocks.”

A Labor Department report showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased slightly last week, while layoffs dropped to an 11-month low in July as labor market conditions remain tight.

Investors were waiting for July’s jobs report, due on Friday.

Another report showed the US services sector slowed in July, but businesses faced higher prices for inputs as demand continued to hold up. Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said US inflation remained too high, although recent readings indicated price pressures easing.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 66.63 points, or 0.19%, to 35,215.89, the S&P 500 lost 11.5 points, or 0.25%, to 4,501.89 and the Nasdaq Composite added 11.77 points, or 0.08%, to 13,985.21.

Eight of the eleven main S&P 500 sectors declined, with more interest rates sensitive Utilities and Real Estate leading losses, dropping 2.3% and 1.4% respectively.

After the closing bell, Amazon.com (AMZN) shares surged when the online retailer forecast third-quarter revenue above Wall Street expectations, boosted by its Prime Day sale event in July that drew price-conscious consumers to its platform.

Apple (AAPL) shares dipped less than 1% in extended trade after the iPhone maker reported quarterly results that beat forecasts.

Second-quarter earnings for companies in the S&P 500 are now expected to fall 5% from a year earlier, according to Refinitiv data.

Qualcomm (QCOM) shares dropped 8.2% after a gloomy forecast signaled more pain for the biggest maker of smartphone chips from the ongoing slump in the consumer electronics market.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL) tumbled 12.3% as investors were disappointed by the payments firm’s quarterly operating margin, even as executives said they expect improvement.

US travel stocks fell on downbeat quarterly reports from Spirit Airlines (SAVE) and Expedia (EXPE) that amplified concerns domestic demand may be easing after a strong rebound from pandemic lows.

Volume on US exchanges was 12.08 billion shares, compared with the 10.5 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.84-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.20-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 14 new 52-week highs and 6 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 58 new highs and 88 new lows.

(Reporting by Echo Wang in New York, Shubham Batra and Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva and David Gregorio)

Asian stocks draw foreign money on hopes of US rate hikes nearing end

Aug 3 (Reuters) – Overseas investors bought Asian equities for the fourth consecutive month in July, spurred by signs that the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle might be ending, a shift from last year’s policy that caused big outflows from riskier assets.

Top central banks raised interest rates again last month despite cooling inflation, but their unified shift to caution suggests the year-long global monetary tightening may be nearing its end.

Data from stock exchanges in India, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam showed foreigners purchased a net USD 3.48 billion of equities in July, the fourth successive month of inflows since April.

Asian equities, excluding China, have become a bright spot for international investors in recent months due to their cheaper valuations after a slump in the last year, and positive growth prospects on the back of falling price pressures.

In India, foreigners remained net buyers for a fifth straight month in July, pumping USD 5.68 billion into the local equity markets and clocking an all-time high, thanks to strong earnings in recent quarters.

“Now India market is up 16% since April lows, FII flows base is still benign, FII ownership of India at 17.9% is still below the cycle average of 19%, so FII flows still have some room to stay positive,” said Amit Sachdeva, India Equity Strategist at HSBC.

South Korea, the Philippines, and Indonesia received about USD 627 million, USD 333 million, and USD 181 million worth of inflows, respectively.

Meanwhile, foreigners withdrew USD 2.9 billion from Taiwanese equities after two monthly purchases, hit by concerns over its economic slowdown.

Thailand and Vietnam also recorded some meager outflows last month.

Foreign interest in China has deteriorated in the second quarter of this year, hit by concerns over a faltering post-COVID economic rebound, disappointment over the absence of a robust policy response, and renewed Sino-US tensions.

In the second quarter, Chinese equities faced outflows worth USD 4.25 billion in the second quarter of this year, while Asia ex-China equities bagged inflows worth USD 18.35 billion.

Some analysts say this divergence could continue.

“While China was a favorite of foreign investors in 1Q23, preference began to decline in the second quarter as macroeconomic data progressively disappointed and high youth unemployment levels and a slowdown in the property sector cast a shadow on domestic consumption outlook,” said Manishi Raychaudhuri, Asian equity strategist at BNP Paribas.

(Reporting by Gaurav Dogra and Patturaja Murugaboopathy in Bengaluru; Editing by Varun H K)

Oil rises 2% as Saudi Arabia and Russia keep supplies tight

NEW YORK, Aug 3 (Reuters) – Oil prices gained about 2% on Thursday as Saudi Arabia and Russia took steps to keep supplies tight into September and possibly beyond.

Brent futures rose USD 1.94, or 2.3%, to settle at USD 85.14 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose USD 2.06, or 2.6%, to settle at USD 81.55.

A lack of big price moves in recent weeks has cut Brent’s historic or actual 30-day close-to-close futures volatility to its lowest since February 2022.

In other oil markets, US diesel futures HOc1 rose about 2% to close at their highest since January 2023.

Saudi Arabia said it will extend a voluntary oil output cut of one million barrels per day (bpd) for a third month to include September, adding it could be extended beyond that or deepened.

Saudi production is expected to be around 9 million bpd in September.

Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia would cut oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September.

Those announced cuts follow moves in June by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies like Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, to limit oil supply into 2024.

OPEC+ ministers will on Friday meet to review the market.

“We expect the (OPEC+) meeting to result in the producers’ group continuing the production cuts initially made at its Oct. 5 meeting, and increased on a voluntary basis at its April 3 and June 4 meetings,” analysts at ClearView Energy Partners, a research firm, said in a note.

OIL DEMAND MIXED

Oil prices rose despite concerns that some central banks around the world will keep increasing interest rates to reduce stubborn inflation, which could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand.

In the United States, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week, while layoffs dropped to an 11-month low in July as labor market conditions remain tight. Despite labor market tightness, some analysts said the inflation outlook continues to improve.

At the same time, the US services sector slowed in July as businesses faced higher prices for inputs even though demand continued to hold up, suggesting the road to low inflation could be long and slow.

“The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) activity indicators suggest that manufacturing is in recession and service sector output is becoming a little more sluggish,” analysts at ING, a bank, said in a note.

In China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer, the central bank pledged to guide more financial resources toward the private economy, suggesting new urgency from Beijing to bolster confidence as economic momentum weakens.

In the UK, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a 15-year high of 5.25%, its 14th back-to-back increase, and warned that borrowing costs were likely to stay high for some time.

In Europe, a downturn in euro zone business activity worsened more than initially thought in July as the slump in manufacturing was accompanied by a further slowing of growth in the bloc’s dominant services industry.

(Additional reporting by Alex Lawler and Natalie Grover in London, Andrew Hayley in Beijing, and Sudarshan Varadhan in Singapore; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, Barbara Lewis, Chris Reese, and Kevin Liffey)

Oil rises marginally as markets weigh inventory data, US ratings downgrade

BEIJING, Aug 3 (Reuters) – Oil prices rose slightly in early Asian trading on Thursday, as markets weighed bullish US inventory data on Wednesday and a likely extension of OPEC+ output cuts against the fallout of Fitch’s downgrade of the US government’s top credit.

Brent crude futures rose 27 cents, or 0.32%, to USD 83.47 a barrel by 0001 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 29 cents, or 0.36%, to USD 79.78 a barrel.

Both benchmarks had been trading at near their highest levels since April on Wednesday, but closed down 2% amid risk-off investor sentiment following the ratings downgrade.

On Tuesday, ratings agency Fitch downgraded the US’s long-term foreign currency ratings to AA+ from AAA, reflecting expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years as well as concerns over a high and growing general government debt burden, political polarisation, and the international status of the US dollar.

Wall Street’s three main indexes closed lower and Treasury yields rose on Wednesday as uncertainty rippled through financial markets.

Despite the broader bearish sentiment, prices continue to see support from a tightening supply backdrop.

US crude stocks fell by a record 17 million barrels last week as refiners stepped up runs and exports topped 5 million barrels per day (bpd), the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

The inventory drawdown, which dramatically exceeded analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll of 1.4 million barrels, pointed to global demand outpacing supply as deep cuts from major producers continue.

The next market monitoring committee meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, is to be held on Aug. 4.

Reuters reporting suggests that OPEC+ is unlikely to tweak its current oil output policy, with Saudi Arabia expected to extend their voluntary 1 million bpd cut for another month to include September.

Russia previously announced plans to lower exports by 500,000 bpd in August, with lower shipments from western Russian ports in the first week of August indicating that Moscow is finally making good on its supply cut pledges.

(Reporting by Andrew Hayley)

Dollar to remain steadfast in coming months, say FX strategists

BENGALURU, Aug 3 (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar will hold its ground against most major currencies over the coming three months as a resilient domestic economy bolsters expectations interest rates will remain higher for longer, according to FX strategists polled by Reuters.

Despite net short dollar positions hitting their highest since March 2021, the greenback has gained nearly 3% from its lowest in more than a year on July 14 amid receding expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Renewed strength in the dollar coincided with a dent in the euro’s stellar run over the past few weeks – it is still up roughly 2.4% against the dollar for the year – on firming expectations the European Central Bank is done hiking rates.

The dollar is unlikely to give up recent gains in coming months, according to the July 31-Aug. 2 Reuters poll of 70 FX strategists, which showed most major currencies would not reclaim their recent highs for at least six months.

In response to an additional question, 27 of 40 FX strategists said net short USD positions would either not change much or decrease over the coming month, suggesting the dollar would be rangebound.

“The Fed delivered what very well might have been the last hike of the cycle. Inflation is falling and labour market rebalancing has come a long way. Typically, these conditions often coincide with a more negative dollar outlook,” said Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global FX at Goldman Sachs.

“We still think that is the right direction, but think dollar depreciation will be shallow, bumpy and differentiated…dollar assets will provide a hard bar to beat for some time to come.”

Meanwhile, the euro’s recent rally has likely come to a halt and it will trade around the current level of USD 1.10 in three months based on the view the ECB is done.

“Do we have more ground to cover? At this point in time, I wouldn’t say so,” said ECB President Christine Lagarde last week after delivering a widely anticipated 25 basis points (bps) rate increase.

“The euro comes into August with short-term rate differentials drifting against it and long EUR futures positions looking vulnerable. Something needs to happen to boost confidence in another 25 bps ECB hike, or the positioning will drag EUR/USD down,” noted Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale.

“Unless, of course, the U.S. data this week are bad enough to shift the conversation back to when the Fed will start easing. So, data-sensitive, but if all the data is dull, the euro has a problem this month.”

In contrast, the Bank of England, which is set to deliver a 25 bps rate hike later on Thursday with a significant risk of a larger 50 bps move, is expected to hike far more than its major peers.

Sterling – one of the best-performing G10 currencies this year – was forecast to gain only mildly to trade at USD 1.28 from the current level of USD 1.27 in the next six months, a slight upgrade from last month.

But the Japanese yen, which has lost around 9% against the dollar this year, was expected to stage a comeback and gain over 6% to trade at 135/USD in six months as the Bank of Japan is expected to tweak its yield curve control further.

(Reporting by Indradip Ghosh; Additional reporting by Shaloo Shrivastava; Polling by Sujith Pai, Veronica Khongwir, and Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan; Editing by Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley, and Alex Richardson)

A sea of red, but AAA shock will fade

Aug 3 (Reuters) – No doubt about it, Wednesday was one of the gloomiest days in a long time for stock markets around the world, as Fitch’s surprise move to strip the US of its AAA credit rating gave investors the ideal cover to take profit and cut risk exposure.

But will the downgrade have any lasting market impact? It is questionable, to say the least, and Asia could recover ground on Thursday if key purchasing managers index reports show service sector activity across the region held up well in July.

Services PMI data from Australia, Japan, India, and China are due on Thursday, with China’s unofficial Caixin report coming under the closest scrutiny. It is expected to show the seventh straight month of growth, but at a slower pace from June.

China’s economic indicators have undershot consensus for months, and by a significant margin too. Could that be about to turn?

Investors will be hoping for a positive surprise after Wednesday’s heavy selling. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index had its worst day since June last year and the MSCI World index had its biggest fall since December, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted their biggest declines since February and April, respectively.

Fitch’s decision late on Tuesday came as a surprise and certainly contributed to the slump in stocks. But its effect on the dollar and US bonds – two areas where souring US creditworthiness should hit the hardest – was negligible.

Two- and 10-year Treasury yields moved a few basis points and the dollar rose. The dollar has now appreciated 10 of the last 12 trading days – bad news for hedge funds holding the largest short dollar position in two-and-a-half years.

G10 FX volatility crept to a two-month high on Wednesday but it’s worth remembering that in early June, vol slumped to its lowest since March last year.

The US yield curve has been steepening for more than a week, led by selling at the long end. That trend accelerated on Wednesday after the Treasury laid out plans to increase the size of debt auctions in the coming quarters.

Japanese stocks on Wednesday suffered their worst day of the year, knocked down by the triple whammy of the BOJ’s step last week toward policy normalization, rising long US bond yields, and a stronger dollar.

But again, the bigger picture is less alarming. The yen ended the day little changed, and dollar/yen volatility is comfortably lower than it was before Friday’s BOJ move.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

– China, Japan, India, and Australia services PMI(July)

– Australia trade balance (June)

– Bank of England rate decision

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

Gold retreats as dollar, bond yields resume climb

Aug 2 (Reuters) – Gold prices slipped on Wednesday as the dollar rose and bond yields strengthened after data showed US private payrolls increased more than expected in July.

Spot gold was down 0.4% at USD 1,935.77 per ounce at 2:45 p.m. EDT (1845 GMT), after rising as much as 0.6% earlier on some safe-haven bids after ratings agency Fitch downgraded the US government’s credit rating to AA+ from AAA.

US gold futures settled 0.2% lower at USD 1,975.

“Higher interest rates would ultimately put pressure on gold. Also, we are seeing more strength in the dollar. Prices are trapped below USD 2,000 and above USD 1,900 for the time being,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

The dollar rose 0.3% to more than a three-week high, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest level since November 2022.

US private payrolls rose by 324,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report showed, well above the increase of 189,000 that economists polled by Reuters had forecast.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability that the US central bank would leave rates unchanged at its Sept. 19-20 meeting was at 83%.

Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

“Traders and investors are not badly shaken over the surprise Fitch news, but it did somewhat deflate heretofore upbeat marketplace attitudes that had recently pushed US stock indexes to new highs for the year,” Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco, wrote in a note.

All eyes are on the release on Friday of the US nonfarm payrolls report for July. Overall payrolls are forecast to rise by 200,000, after increasing by 209,000 in June.

Elsewhere, spot silver fell 2.5% to USD 23.72 per ounce, platinum dropped 1.1% to USD 921.10 and palladium gained 0.1% to USD 1,240.74.

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel and Deep Vakil in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar, Paul Simao, and Maju Samuel)

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