Dollar stabilizes as Venezuela fears subside, risk-on mood grows

SINGAPORE – The US dollar steadied near a two-week high as trading commenced in Asia on Tuesday, as market jitters from US military action in Venezuela eased and dovish comments from Fed officials spurred risk-taking on Wall Street.

The dollar, which measures its strength against a basket of six currencies, was last trading at 98.36, nudging up 0.04% after snapping a four-day winning streak on Monday.

“The market isn’t really concerned about what’s happening in the geopolitical front, at least in the near term,” said Rodrigo Catril, currency strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

That environment “lessens the appeal for safe havens and we’ve seen the US dollar on the backfoot,” he added.

Financial markets were volatile after the weekend’s dramatic ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, which sparked volatility in commodity markets. Maduro pleaded not guilty to narcotics charges in a Manhattan federal court on Monday.

The Australian dollar, which is sensitive to commodity prices, was last down 0.1% at USD 0.6713, edging back from the top of the trading channel it has sat in for the past two weeks after copper prices hit a record high. The New Zealand dollar was last off 0.1% at USD 0.5784.

Against the yen, the dollar was last up 0.2% at 156.72 yen.

The dollar was pressured on Monday by dovish comments from Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari, a voter on the central bank’s rate-setting committee this year, who told CNBC he sees a risk that the jobless rate could ‘pop’ higher.

Expectations of policy easing edged up after his remarks, though Fed funds futures are still pricing an implied 82.8% probability that interest rates will remain on hold at the US central bank’s next meeting on January 27-28, compared to an 83.4% chance on Friday, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

The greenback felt further pressure as US manufacturing activity contracted more than expected in December, falling to a 14-month low.

“The modest decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in December confirms that the sector was struggling for momentum around the turn of the year, but we doubt that this will be enough to prevent overall GDP from expanding at a solid pace in the coming quarters,” Capital Economics wrote in a research report.

Against the Chinese yuan trading offshore in Hong Kong, the dollar was last flat at 6.983 yuan.

The euro was 0.1% lower at USD 1.1713, while the British pound weakened 0.1% to USD 1.3533.

Bitcoin edged 0.2% lower to USD 93,900.82, while ether slipped 0.4% to USD 3,226.50.

(Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

Stocks, energy shares, oil jump after US strikes Venezuela

NEW YORK – Major stock indexes and oil prices gained on Monday, with energy shares climbing and investors reacting mostly calmly to potential market ramifications after a US military strike that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high. The S&P 500 energy index rose to its highest since March 2025, with shares of Exxon Mobil up 2.2% and Chevron up 5.1%. Financial shares also rose, while an S&P index of defense shares was up more than 1%.

After the dramatic events in Venezuela over the weekend, US President Donald Trump said he was putting the South American nation under temporary American control and that he could order another strike if Venezuela did not cooperate with US efforts to open up its oil industry and stop drug trafficking. He also threatened military action in Colombia and Mexico.

Trump is planning to meet with executives from US oil companies later this week to discuss boosting Venezuelan oil production, Reuters reported, citing a source familiar with the matter.

Oil prices were also higher as traders assessed the possible impact on crude flows from Venezuela, home of the biggest global oil reserves.

“It’s a reasonable reaction from the markets to largely ignore the geopolitics around Venezuela, with the exception of a handful of oil companies, which are spiking,” said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor at Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut.

“Venezuela’s GDP has virtually no impact on global GDP… so the market should ignore it,” he said, noting that US economic data this week will be key to the outlook for interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 594.79 points, or 1.23%, to 48,977.18, the S&P 500 rose 43.58 points, or 0.64%, to 6,902.05, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 160.19 points, or 0.69%, to 23,395.82.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe rose 8.38 points, or 0.82%, to 1,028.02.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.94%. Emerging market stocks rose 21.63 points, or 1.51%, to 1,451.11.

Brent crude futures rose USD 1.01 to settle at USD 61.76 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained USD 1 to settle at USD 58.32.

US MILITARY ACTION SPURS SAFE-HAVEN DEMAND

Gold rose to a one-week high on bullion’s safe-haven appeal.

Spot gold hit its highest level since December 29. US gold futures for February delivery gained 2.8% to settle at USD 4,451.5 an ounce.

The dollar index was down slightly after hitting a near-four-week high against a range of currencies following a weak December, with traders focused on this week’s raft of key economic data and largely shrugging off events in Venezuela.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.24% to 98.32.

Traders readied for new data that should offer fresh clues on the state of the US economy and the likely path of Federal Reserve policy, culminating in the release of the jobs report for December on Friday.

US Treasury yields eased. The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes fell 2.4 basis points to 4.165%, from 4.189% late on Friday.

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch in New York; Additional reporting by Lawrence White in London; Editing by David Goodman, Chizu Nomiyama and Jamie Freed)

Dow hits record, energy stocks end higher after US strikes Venezuela

Wall Street ended higher on Monday, with surging financial shares helping lift the Dow Jones Industrial Average to an all-time peak, while energy firms jumped after a US military strike captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Investors bet Washington’s move against Venezuela’s leadership would allow US firms access to the world’s largest oil reserves. President Donald Trump’s administration plans to meet with executives from US oil companies this week to discuss boosting Venezuelan production.

The S&P 500 energy index rose 2.7% to its highest since March 2025, with heavyweights Exxon Mobil and Chevron both surging.

Weapons manufacturers also advanced after Washington’s military action. Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics climbed, while the S&P 500 aerospace and defense index rose to a record high.

“Energy stocks are really benefiting from the expectation that President Trump is intending to send them in to do more investment in Venezuela and ultimately make more money for themselves,” said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at US Bank Wealth Management in Seattle.

“The lack of permanent boots on the ground, the fact that we’re not permanently engaged, means the broader equity markets are able to set aside what might have been fears of a prolonged engagement,” Haworth said.

Tesla climbed 3.1% after seven straight sessions of losses. NVIDIA dipped 0.4%, and Apple declined 1.4%.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.64% to end the session at 6,902.05 points.

The Nasdaq gained 0.69% to 23,395.82 points, while the Dow rose 1.23% to 48,977.18 points. Volume on US exchanges was heavy, with 19.1 billion shares traded, far exceeding the average of 15.9 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions.

The S&P 500 financials index jumped 2.2% as investors looked to upcoming quarterly reports. Analysts on average see S&P 500 financial companies growing their earnings 6.7% year-over-year in the December quarter.

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase rose more than 3% and hit record highs.

“The mood has been favoring financial stocks in recent days, and as people look beyond tech, this is a sector many are choosing to look toward,” said Steve Sosnick, chief market analyst at Interactive Brokers.

Wall Street’s main indexes posted double-digit gains in 2025 for the third consecutive year, a run last seen in 2021.

Data showed US manufacturing contracted more than expected in December, extending a 10-month slump.

The spotlight will now be on the monthly nonfarm payrolls on Friday, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in 2026.

Markets are pricing in about 60 basis points of interest rate easing this year, according to LSEG.

Cryptocurrency-linked shares advanced as bitcoin BTC= hit a more than three-week high. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, climbed almost 5% and Coinbase rallied 7.8%. Goldman Sachs upgraded Coinbase to “buy” from “neutral”.

Advancing issues outnumbered falling ones within the S&P 500 by a 2.1-to-one ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 60 new highs and 11 new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 107 new highs and 49 new lows.

(Reporting by Purvi Agarwal and Nikhil Sharma in Bengaluru, and by Noel Randewich in San Francisco; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli and David Gregorio)

Gold hits record high on safe-haven demand; silver climbs to new peak

Gold touched a record high on Tuesday, coming within a whisker of breaching the key USD 4,500 per-ounce level, as investors flocked to the safe haven on US-Venezuela tensions, while silver also rallied to an all-time peak.

Spot gold rose 0.9% to USD 4,486.55 per ounce by 0753 GMT, after hitting a record USD 4,497.55 earlier in the session. US gold futures for February delivery gained 1.1% to USD 4,519.20.

“US-Venezuela tensions are keeping gold on the radar for investors as an uncertainty hedge,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, adding that gold had surged this week as part of a broader positioning shift with US interest rates projected to ease further.

Waterer said buyers continued to see precious metals as an effective way to diversify portfolios and preserve value, adding that “I don’t think we are at the high watermark yet for gold or silver.”

US President Donald Trump last week announced a “blockade” of all oil tankers under sanctions entering and leaving Venezuela.

Further support for gold came from reports that Trump could name a new Federal Reserve Chair by early January, with markets pricing in two rate cuts for next year amid expectations of a more dovish policy stance.

Bullion, a classic refuge in times of geopolitical and economic unease, has surged more than 70% so far this year, riding a potent mix of geopolitical risks, rate-cut bets, central bank buying, de-dollarization, and renewed exchange-traded fund inflows.

“With year-end approaching, thinner liquidity conditions could amplify price swings,” said Frank Walbaum, a market analyst at trading and investment platform Naga, noting that gold might remain especially sensitive to geopolitical headlines and shifts in rate expectations.

Spot silver advanced 0.8% to USD 69.56 per ounce after touching a record high of USD 69.98, with its year-to-date gains topping 141% and outpacing gold on supply deficits, industrial demand, and investment inflows.

Some consolidation was possible over the festive period as liquidity thinned, said Michael Brown, a senior strategist at Pepperstone.

He, however, said the rally should resume in earnest once volumes returned, with the USD 5,000 level a natural target for gold next year and the USD 75 mark a longer-term objective for silver.

Spot platinum jumped 3.1% to USD 2,185.05, its highest in more than 17 years, while palladium rose 2.7% to a three-year high of USD 1,806.25, tracking strength in gold and silver.

(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Subhranshu Sahu)

Oil slips as market weighs geopolitical risks against bearish fundamentals

SINGAPORE – Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as traders weighed geopolitical risks against bearish fundamentals, after the US signaled it might sell the Venezuelan crude it has seized, while Ukraine’s attacks on Russian vessels and piers heightened fears of supply disruption.

Brent crude futures edged lower by 13 cents, or 0.2%, to USD 61.94 per barrel by 0720 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude eased 14 cents, or 0.2%, to USD 57.87 a barrel.

On Monday, prices rose over 2% with Brent posting its best daily performance in two months and WTI climbing the most since November 14.

“Crude oil markets are grinding through the final weeks of 2025 with prices largely subdued, reflecting a tug-of-war between persistent bearish fundamentals and intermittent bullish headlines,” Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova, said in a note.

While prices have shown modest rebounds on geopolitical headlines throughout 2025, the broader narrative points to a balance of sluggish demand and oversupply, she said.

“Overall, the trend remains weak as structural supply concerns eclipse short-lived risk-off rallies.”

But markets are cautious as traders weigh the geopolitical risks against forecasts of ample supply in early 2026, leaving prices potentially sensitive to any prolonged disruptions.

On Monday, US President Donald Trump said the US might keep or sell the oil it had seized off the coast of Venezuela in recent weeks, amid his pressure campaign on Venezuela, which includes a “blockade” of oil tankers under sanctions entering and leaving the country.

“It is true that even if Venezuelan oil exports were to fall to zero over the near term, oil markets will likely still be well supplied in H1 26,” Barclays said in a note dated Monday.

However, Barclays estimates the global oil surplus will shrink to just 700,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026, and a prolonged disruption could tighten the market further, depleting recent inventory builds.

Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine waged attacks on each other’s facilities on the Black Sea, a vital export route for both countries.

Russian forces struck Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa late on Monday and damaged port facilities and a ship, in the second attack on the region in less than 24 hours.

A Ukrainian drone attack damaged two vessels, two piers, and sparked a fire in a village in Russia’s Krasnodar region, regional authorities said on Monday.

Ukraine has also targeted Russia’s maritime logistics, focusing on shadow-fleet oil tankers that attempt to bypass sanctions on Russia over the nearly four-year war.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by Sonali Paul, Neil Fullick, and Christian Schmollinger)

US crude futures jump in Asia trade on Trump’s Venezuela blockade

BEIJING – US crude futures opened a dollar higher in Asian trading on Thursday after President Donald Trump placed a blockade on tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, and most exports from the country remained on hold.

The West Texas Intermediate contract was up 98 cents, or 1.75%, at USD 56.92 per barrel as of 1109 GMT.

Trump on Tuesday had ordered a blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, calling President Nicolas Maduro’s administration a foreign terrorist organization.

Sources said most Venezuelan exports remained on hold on Wednesday due to the blockade even though Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA restarting loading crude and fuel cargoes after it had had to suspend operations because of a cyberattack. Chevron vessels were continuing to depart for the US

“While enforcement details remain unclear, the unexpected escalation in US pressure against the Maduro regime has sparked supply disruption concerns and triggered short covering in an oversold market,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.

The news prompted oil prices to rise by more than 1% in the previous session, rebounding from five-year lows driven by progress on Ukraine peace talks that seemed to point the way to a potential easing of Russian sanctions.

(Reporting by Colleen Howe; Editing by Chris Reese and David Gregorio)

US Treasury yields steady as delayed data clouds economic outlook

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields were little changed on the day on Wednesday as traders parsed data releases that have been delayed and show a less complete than usual picture of the US economy following a 43-day federal government shutdown, with the Federal Reserve not expected to cut rates again for several months.

Data on Tuesday showed that the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose in November, though analysts say that gaps in the data make the release less credible than usual.

The next major US economic release will be consumer price inflation for November on Thursday.

“The market really still lacks a data focus,” said Tom di Galoma, managing director at Mischler Financial Group, though “there seems to be a lot of scrutiny on it – whether or not it’s the right data and whether or not it’s going to change drastically in the future.”

A sharply divided Fed cut interest rates last week but signaled borrowing costs are unlikely to drop further in the near term as it awaits clarity on the direction of a job market showing signs of softening, inflation that “remains somewhat elevated” and an economy it sees picking up steam next year.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Wednesday that the US central bank still has room to cut interest rates amid concerns that the job market has softened.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in only a 24% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s January 27-28 meeting, with the next cut seen likely in April.

The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with Fed interest rate expectations, was last up 0.8 of a basis point on the day at 3.487%.

The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes was little changed at 4.149%.

The yield curve between two- and 10-year yields steepened by around half a basis point to 66 basis points.

Bond yields have been largely rangebound for the past few months as traders wait for fresh catalysts that will drive Fed policy.

“It just seems to me that until we get a new Fed chair and get some kind of direction, or the economy either does much better or much worse, there’s probably not a lot to read into here,” said di Galoma.

US President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal last week that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh were at the top of the list for Fed chair. The WSJ also reported on Tuesday that Trump is set to interview Waller for the job on Wednesday. The new chair will replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May.

Waller said on Wednesday he would “absolutely” defend the US central bank’s independence if it were challenged.

The Treasury will sell USD 13 billion in 20-year bonds on Wednesday to good demand.

The bonds sold at a high yield of 4.798%, close to where they were trading before the auction. Demand was 2.67 times the amount of debt on offer, the highest since October.

The US government will also sell USD 24 billion in five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities on Thursday.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Nick Zieminski)

US yields fall as unemployment rate rises

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields fell on Tuesday after data showed an unexpected increase in the unemployment rate last month, though analysts also noted that the data is less reliable than usual due to government shutdown-related distortions.

Employers added 64,000 jobs last month, above economists’ expectations for 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the rate would remain unchanged on the month at 4.4%.

“I don’t think there’s much signal we can get from today,” said Will Compernolle, a macro strategist at FHN Financial in Chicago.

“The most important thing I would say is the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6%. But even there, if you look at the BLS report, they have a technical note that says for a number of reasons the margin of error for November is higher,” Compernolle said.

The delayed employment report for November and a partial update for October published by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday also did not include the unemployment rate and other metrics for October after the 43-day shutdown of the government prevented the collection of data from households.

“It looks like the labor market is still gradually cooling rather than showing an acceleration in deterioration. So, I don’t think this data overall changes our understanding of how the economy is doing or how the Fed is going to react to it,” Compernolle said.

The two-year note yield, which typically moves in step with Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, was last down 2.3 basis points on the day at 3.485%. The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes fell 2.7 basis points to 4.155%.

The yield curve between two- and 10-year notes was little changed on the day at 67 basis points.

A sharply divided Fed cut interest rates last week but signaled borrowing costs are unlikely to drop further in the near term as it awaits clarity on the direction of a job market showing signs of softening, inflation that “remains somewhat elevated,” and an economy it sees picking up steam next year.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in only 24% odds of a rate cut at the Fed’s January 27-28 meeting, with the next cut seen likely in April.

Other data on Tuesday showed that US retail sales were unexpectedly flat in October, although consumer spending appears to have remained on a solid footing at the start of the fourth quarter despite the rising cost of living that is forcing some households to scale back.

The next major US economic release will be consumer price inflation data for November due on Thursday.

Traders are also waiting to see who US President Donald Trump names as the next Fed Chair to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May.

Both Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett are qualified to lead the Federal Reserve, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday, adding that any candidate President Donald Trump picks for the job needs to have “an open mind”.

Trump is also set to interview Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller for Fed chair on Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Andrew Heavens)

Gold inches up as US unemployment rate rises in November

Gold rose on Tuesday after a US jobs report showed the unemployment rate rose last month from September, reinforcing bets of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and sending the dollar index lower.

Spot gold gained 0.2% to USD 4,310.21 per ounce, as of 01:48 p.m. ET (18:48 GMT). US gold futures settled 0.1% lower at USD 4,332.3.

The US dollar fell to a two-month low, making greenback-priced bullion more affordable for overseas buyers. Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields also edged lower.

“(The) data gives the Fed more reason to cut rates, and if they cut rates, that’s bullish for gold … that’s the way the market’s interpreting it right now,” said RJO Futures senior market strategist Bob Haberkorn.

US job growth rebounded in November, but the unemployment rate was at 4.6% in the backdrop of economic uncertainty stemming from President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy. A Reuters survey of economists had estimated an unemployment rate of 4.4%.

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee announced a quarter-point rate cut, and Chair Jerome Powell’s accompanying comments were perceived as less hawkish than expected.

US rate futures still expect two cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026, pricing in 59 bps of easing next year. Non-yielding gold tends to thrive in a low-interest rate environment.

Investors await November’s Consumer Price index, due on Thursday, and Personal Consumption Expenditures index, due on Friday.

If gold finishes 2025 above USD 4,400, then it could see USD 4,859-USD 5,590 in 2026, said Alex Ebkarian, COO at Allegiance Gold, and added that silver could retest the USD 50/oz level next year.

Spot silver fell 0.3% to USD 63.75 an ounce, retreating from a record high of USD 64.65 on Friday. Platinum rose 4% to USD 1,854.95, its highest level since September 2011, and palladium gained 2.5% to USD 1,606.41, hitting a two-month high.

“Platinum group metals are breaking out as supply tightens and demand expands,” Ebkarian noted.

(Reporting by Sarah Qureshi, Noel John, and Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Sahal Muhammed)

Foreign inflows into Asian bonds hit six-month high in November

Foreign investors snapped up Asian bonds in November as they sought shelter from an equity market selloff driven by concerns over stretched tech valuations and uncertainty around the US Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.

They bought a net USD 10.86 billion of bonds in South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, India, and Indonesia in November, marking their largest monthly net purchase since USD 15.29 billion of inflows in May, data from local regulatory authorities and bond market associations showed.

“Divergence between equity and debt assets emerged again in November, likely due to investors rotating to low-risk assets,” said Khoon Goh, the head of Asia research at ANZ.

South Korean bonds drew USD 11.08 billion, the largest monthly net inflow since at least 2016, on optimism over their inclusion in the FTSE World Government Bond Index starting in April 2026.

“We suspect that part of the strong inflows into South Korean bonds was diverted from the equity market,” ANZ’s Goh said.

Thai bonds recorded a third consecutive month of foreign inflows, totalling USD 319 million, while Malaysian bonds saw net foreign purchases of USD 316 million.

In contrast, foreign investors sold Indian and Indonesian bonds worth USD 447 million and USD 400 million, respectively.

The US Federal Reserve last week cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a 3.50%–3.75% range, reinforcing expectations that lower US borrowing costs would support regional assets.

Jonathan Davis, portfolio manager at PineBridge Investments, said that as equity valuations climb alongside lingering macro uncertainty, investors should remain focused on core fixed income and mindful of risk concentration in more indebted issuers.

“That is why we see a growing number of institutions looking toward the Asia-Pacific dollar bond market to maintain stability and diversify risks within their core fixed income portfolios.”

(Reporting by Gaurav Dogra and Patturaja Murugaboopathy in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle

Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work

Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning

Inflation Update: Green light for easing

December Economic Update: One for them, one for us