Gold slips from record peak; markets eye US economic data

Gold prices eased on Wednesday as the US dollar firmed, retreating from a record high scaled in the previous session, while investors hunkered down for economic data due later in the week for further cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Spot gold fell 0.8% to USD 3,734.58 per ounce, as of 01:56 p.m. ET (1756 GMT), after hitting a record high of USD 3,790.82 on Tuesday.

US gold futures for December delivery settled 1.2% lower at USD 3,768.1.

The US dollar index rose about 0.6%, making dollar-priced bullion more expensive for other currency holders. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also drifted higher.

“Gold is still digesting some of the commentary coming out of the Federal Reserve yesterday and also geopolitical tensions with Russia… It’s slightly cautious ahead of some economic data coming out,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday offered no new clues on the future course of interest rates, stressing that the central bank must carefully balance the risks of stubborn inflation against a slowing job market.

Markets are pricing in two additional 25-basis-point rate cuts this year — one in October with a 94% probability and another in December with a 77% probability, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Focus is now on Thursday’s weekly US jobless claims data and Friday’s release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

On the geopolitical front, Ukraine’s military said on Wednesday it struck two oil pumping stations overnight in Russia’s Volgograd region.

Safe-haven gold becomes more attractive during periods of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. It also tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment as it is a non-yielding asset.

Spot silver fell 0.4% to USD 43.84 per ounce. Platinum fell 0.7% to USD 1,468.44, and palladium lost 0.7% to USD 1,211.45.

(Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; additional reporting by Kavya Balaraman; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar, Shailesh Kuber, and Shinjini Ganguli)

Dollar strengthens against euro and yen after Powell’s cautious rate outlook

NEW YORK/LONDON – The US dollar gained against the yen, Swiss franc and euro on Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone on further easing overnight, while the New Zealand dollar eased following the appointment of a new central bank chief.

The dollar strengthened 0.46% to 0.795 against the Swiss franc, on track to snap two consecutive sessions of losses.

The euro was lower against the dollar after German business morale fell unexpectedly in September. It was last down 0.67% at USD 1.1736 after rising for the last two sessions. Sterling declined 0.68% to USD 1.3431. It was steady against the euro, at 87.34 pence.

INFLATION AND JOBS MARKET IN FOCUS

“The dollar is a little firmer broadly against most of the G10 although it is still choppy and range bound,” said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street in Boston.

“Based on our flows and holdings data, the dollar is still very underweight kind of within the real money community so I think it’s due for a period of consolidation and that’s ultimately what it’s doing.”

Powell maintained a cautious tone on Tuesday, saying the Fed needed to continue balancing the competing risks of high inflation and a weakening job market in coming rate decisions.

Markets are expecting quarter-point rate cuts at the remaining two Fed meetings this year and another in the first quarter of 2026, in line with the central bank’s guidance after last week’s meeting.

This week’s US data will be in focus, particularly Friday’s release of the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key input for shaping expectations on the Fed’s next policy steps.

“We are still data point-to-point with regard to the Fed, and that’s going to be the catalyst for rates and the dollar in terms of determining how aggressive or hawkish the market starts to view the Fed,” Loh added.

The US dollar index =USD, which measures the currency against six major rivals, added 0.65% at 97.87, attempting to claw back ground after two straight losing sessions.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak later in the day.

NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR

Candidates for the next leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party answered journalists’ questions on Wednesday. Frontrunner Sanae Takaichi, a fiscal and monetary dove, said monetary policy was up to the Bank of Japan but higher rates could affect mortgages and corporate investment.

Against the yen, the dollar added 0.75% to 148.73 yen, hitting its highest in three weeks and set to snap three straight sessions of losses.

New Zealand’s dollar traded down 0.72% at USD 0.5814 after Swedish central banker Anna Breman was named as the next Reserve Bank governor, becoming the first woman in the role.

The Australian dollar weakened 0.17% versus the greenback to USD 0.6587. Data showed that inflation climbed more than expected to 3% in August, less than a week before the Reserve Bank’s next policy meeting.

(Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York; Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Amanda Cooper, Ed Osmond, and Alison Williams)

Stocks break AI-driven rally; Powell’s caution tempers U.S. yields

NEW YORK – Wall Street stock indexes broke a three-day string of artificial intelligence-fueled records on Tuesday, and US Treasury yields slid after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated a cautious approach to the next US interest rate decision.

The central bank head offered few hints as to when the Fed might repeat last week’s move to cut interest rates, and emphasized how delicate the balance is between balancing the threat of inflation and signs of weakness in the labor market.

Tech stocks closed down after posting record closing highs in each of the last three sessions. Nvidia’s shares fell 2.8% the day after the chipmaker shook up markets and reached its own record high stock price on plans to invest in OpenAI.

The Nasdaq Composite led declines, falling 0.95%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.19%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.55%.

The market is digesting the fact that the economy has shown resilience, but data has been inconsistent, “and is now dipping to more of a slowdown,” said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors in New York.

“With this being the third year of double-digit returns for the S&P 500, there needs to be another strong catalyst to move stocks materially higher. And right now, it is not clear what that catalyst can be,” Pursche said.

Shares in Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple were also lower.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks in 49 countries fell 0.3%.

Investors’ antennas had been up for signals from Powell on future rate cuts. After his speech on Tuesday, they fractionally shifted their expectations of a 25 basis point cut in October to 94% chance, from 89.8% on Monday. CME’s Fedwatch tool now indicates a 5.9% chance of a pause.

YIELDS DOWN, GOLD SOARS

Treasury yields, which influence borrowing costs, declined.

The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes fell 3.9 basis points to 4.106%, from 4.145% late on Monday. It had hit its highest level since September 5 during that session.

The 2-year bond yield, which typically moves in step with expectations for rate moves from the Fed, fell 1.3 basis points to 3.588%, from 3.601% late on Monday.

Gold basked in its safe-haven status to hit record highs, with the spot price last quoted up 0.47% to USD 3,763.82 an ounce.

Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone, said investors were hedging their exposure to stocks by buying gold.

Global equities have been supported by expectations of further Fed rate cuts after it eased policy last week.

“The markets are sanguine in this ‘everything rally,’ awaiting more evidence that further Fed easing will steer the economy away from any hard landings,” BNY head of markets macro strategy Bob Savage said in a note.

Markets have stayed dovish despite mixed messaging from the Fed itself.

Before the chair’s speech, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman largely dismissed inflation risks and said rates may need to come down faster to support the labor market.

New Fed Governor Stephen Miran called for sharp rate cuts on Monday, while three colleagues urged caution on inflation.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was little changed at 97.24.

Oil settled up more than USD 1 a barrel after a deal to resume exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan stalled. This reduced some concerns about oversupply.

(Reporting by Isla Binnie in New York, Tom Wilson in London and Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Stephen Coates)

Gold surges to new peak on safe-haven demand, Fed rate cut bets

Gold prices climbed to a fresh record high on Tuesday, aided by safe haven flows amid geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Spot gold rose 0.8% to USD 3,777.80 per ounce as of 01:45 p.m. ET (1745 GMT), after hitting a fresh record high of USD 3,790.82 earlier in the session.

US gold futures for December delivery settled 1.1% higher at USD 3,815.7.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 0.2%, while the US dollar was largely steady.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank faces a “challenging situation” with ongoing risks of faster-than-expected inflation while weak job growth raises concerns about labor market health.He offered little clarity on when the Fed might next cut interest rates.

“The gold market recognized that there was nothing significant in his speech compared to the tone set last week, nothing significant enough to change the upside path in gold,” said RJO Futures market strategist Bob Haberkorn.

Traders still expect US rate cuts in October and December after the Fed reduced rates by 25 basis points earlier this month.

Attention now shifts to Friday’s release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

Meanwhile, NATO warned Russia that it would use “all necessary military and non-military tools” to defend itself as it condemned Moscow for violating Estonian airspace in “a pattern of increasingly irresponsible behaviour”.

Strong buying interest from ETF investors – driven by expectations of rate cuts, concerns around the Fed’s independence and geopolitical developments – are also likely giving gold prices a boost, Commerzbank said in a note.

The People’s Bank of China is leveraging the Shanghai Gold Exchange to encourage central banks from friendly nations to purchase and store bullion within its borders, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Spot silver rose 0.2% to USD 44.17 per ounce, hovering near a 14-year high. Meanwhile, Platinum rose 4.5% to USD 1,480.97, its highest level since 2014 and palladium rose 2.8% to USD 1,212.

(Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo and Tasim Zahid)

Gold hits record high as traders bet on US rate cuts, eye Powell’s signal

Gold prices climbed to a record high on Tuesday, supported by growing expectations of further US rate cuts and a slightly weaker dollar, with investors awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for additional policy insights.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold was up 0.2% at USD 3,752.43 per ounce, as of 0123 GMT, after hitting a record high of USD 3,758.03 earlier in the session.

* US gold futures for December delivery climbed 0.3% to USD 3,787.60.

* The US dollar index was down 0.1%, making greenback-priced gold cheaper for overseas buyers.

* Investors are closely awaiting Powell’s speech, due at 1635 GMT, for signals on the central bank’s policy, alongside remarks from other Fed officials this week.

* New Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said on Monday that the Fed is misreading how tight it has set monetary policy and will put the job market at risk without aggressive rate cuts, a view countered in remarks by three of his colleagues who feel the central bank needs to remain cautious about inflation.

* Last week, the US central bank cut rates by 25 basis points, citing labour market conditions and indicated more cuts would come at its upcoming meetings, but also warned about sticky inflation.

* According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors see a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October and a 75% chance of another in December.

* SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.60% to 1,000.57 tons on Monday from 994.56 tons on Friday.

* Safe-haven gold, which typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment has risen nearly 43% this year, driven by broader geopolitical and economic uncertainty, central bank buying, and monetary policy easing.

* Spot silver fell 0.2% to USD 43.98 per ounce, hovering near a 14-year high. Platinum gained 0.3% to USD 1,420.45 and palladium rose 0.9% to USD 1,189.84.

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)
0715	France HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI September
0730	Germany HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI September
0800	EU HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI September
0830	UK Flash Composite, Manufacturing, Services PMI September
1345	US S&P Global Mfg, Svcs, Comp PMI Flash September

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Ishaan Arora; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

US tech shares hold steady after Trump unveils USD 100,000 H-1B visa fee

US tech shares were little changed on Monday after President Donald Trump announced a USD 100,000 one-time fee for H-1B visas, part of his immigration crackdown that has raised concerns about higher labor costs and limited access to skilled workers.

The H-1B program allows US employers to hire foreign workers in specialty fields such as technology and engineering, and higher fees threaten to raise labor costs for tech companies that depend heavily on this talent pipeline.

Over 70% of these visas went to Indian nationals last year, US data showed. During Trump’s first term, the administration tightened visa approvals and raised scrutiny of applications, moves that drew lawsuits from industry groups.

Analysts said the impact should be moderate, given that the fees apply only to new applications, but warned that a constrained supply of skilled workers in the US may push wages higher and squeeze margins.

Amazon, Google parent Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft are consistently among the top corporate sponsors of H-1B visas, data shows, underscoring their dependence on foreign engineers and developers to fuel growth in areas such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence.

Shares of Cognizant Technology Solutions, JP Morgan, and Intel, which rank among the biggest sponsors of H-1B visas, were trading between down 1.7% and up 1.9%.

“The H1B fee will constrain talent supply in the US, which in turn will drive up demand for locals or green card holders. IT firms will have to pay these employees more or risk losing them,” Jefferies analysts said in a note.

“The talent supply crunch will drive up onsite wages, which could drag profits by 4-13%.”

Industry lobby groups, including India’s Nasscom and the US Chamber of Commerce, are expected to push back, arguing the fees will hurt innovation and discourage global talent from seeking jobs in the United States, analysts said.

INDIAN IT STOCKS HIT

Indian IT workers make up the bulk of H-1B applicants, and while Indian IT companies have long benefited from US work visa programs, they now face the prospect of higher costs and slower revenue growth.

Indian IT stocks slid on Monday, with the tech sub-index dropping nearly 3% and dragging the broader Nifty 50 index down.

US-listed shares of Infosys and Wipro were up 1% and down 0.5% respectively.

“We believe this will essentially shut out new H-1B visas except in extreme cases for Indian IT companies, as USD100K increment is nearly double their median salaries and doesn’t make economic sense,” Ambit Capital analysts said.

(Reporting by Samuel Indyk in London and Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Amanda Cooper and Anil D’Silva)

Dollar firms ahead of deluge of Fed speakers

SINGAPORE – The dollar was steady on Monday as traders looked ahead to a slew of speeches from Federal Reserve officials throughout the week that could provide further clues on the US rate outlook, after the central bank resumed its easing cycle last week.

Currency moves in the early Asia session were more subdued after a volatile ride last week following a raft of rate decisions including that of the Fed, the Bank of England (BoE), and the Bank of Japan (BOJ).

The yen was last 0.16% lower at 148.22 per dollar, paring its gains from Friday after a hawkish shift in the BOJ’s rhetoric raised the prospect of a near-term rate hike.

Sterling, meanwhile, fell to a two-week low of USD 1.3458, pressured by domestic headwinds after a surge in UK public borrowing and a BoE rate decision that laid bare the challenge for policymakers in balancing growth and inflation.

“We have pushed our forecast for the next move into 2026,” Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, said of the BoE’s next expected cut.

“However, with this mostly already priced in and with the attentions of GBP investors squarely focused on the UK fiscal backdrop, we remain of the view that GBP is set to be on the back foot into the autumn and potentially beyond.”

In the broader market, the dollar extended its rebound from last week’s knee-jerk fall following the Fed’s rate cut, rising slightly against a basket of currencies to 97.75.

The euro was down 0.07% to USD 1.1738, while the Aussie eased 0.02% to USD 0.6589.

Roughly 10 Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are due to speak this week, with investors watching closely for their views on the economy and the Fed’s independence.

“There are some opportunities there for the speeches to move the currency markets,” said Joseph Capurso, head of FX, international and geoeconomics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“The one that I think would be most interesting for markets is the speech from Stephen Miran, because markets would want to get a gauge about what he thinks about independence of the Fed and what influence the President might have and the like.”

New Fed Governor Miran on Friday defended himself as an independent policymaker after dissenting in favour of a steeper 50-basis-point rate cut at September’s policy meeting, and promised to give a detailed argument for his views in a speech later on Monday.

In Asia, China on Monday kept benchmark lending rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive month in September, in line with market expectations.

The offshore yuan was little changed after the decision and last rose 0.06% to 7.1151 per dollar.

(Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Jamie Freed)

Oil inches up as tension flares in Europe, Middle East

SINGAPORE – Oil prices inched up on Monday, supported by geopolitical tension in Europe and the Middle East, although the prospect of more oil supply and concern about the impact of trade tariffs on global fuel demand weighed.

Brent crude futures rose 28 cents, or 0.42%, to USD 66.96 a barrel by 0118 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at USD 62.88 a barrel, up 20 cents, or 0.32%.

“Reports over the weekend that Russia was threatening over the Polish border have provided traders with a timely reminder of the ongoing risks to European energy security from the north east,” said Michael McCarthy, CEO of investment platform Moomoo Australia and New Zealand.

Polish and allied aircraft were deployed early on Saturday to ensure the safety of Polish airspace after Russia launched airstrikes targeting western Ukraine near the border with Poland, armed forces of the NATO-member country said.

The deployment came after three Russian military jets violated NATO Estonia’s airspace for 12 minutes on Friday, while on Sunday, Germany’s air force reported that a Russian military plane entered neutral airspace over the Baltic Sea.

The United Nations Security Council is due to meet on Monday over Estonia’s accusation that Russian fighter jets violated its airspace, diplomats said.

In recent weeks, Ukraine stepped up drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, hitting terminals and refineries, while US President Donald Trump has urged the European Union to halt Russian oil and gas purchases.

In the Middle East news, four Western nations recognised a Palestinian state, prompting a furious response from Israel and adding to jitters in the key oil-producing region.

Brent and WTI settled down more than 1% on Friday to mark a slight decline last week as worries about large supplies and declining demand outweighed expectations that the year’s first interest-rate cut by the US Federal Reserve would trigger more consumption.

“There are underpinning assumptions about the market outlook that encompass increased supply from the USA, OPEC+ and now Russia in response to a significant decline in oil revenues,” McCarthy said.

Iraq has increased oil exports following the gradual unwinding of voluntary production cuts under an OPEC+ agreement, the country’s state oil marketer SOMO said on Sunday.

Iraq’s oil exports averaged 3.38 million barrels per day in August, according to the oil ministry. SOMO expects September’s average exports to range from 3.4 million to 3.45 million bpd.

(Reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Christopher Cushing)

Gold holds firm near record high as markets eye Fed policy signals

Gold held firm near a record high on Monday as investors awaited US inflation data and a slew of Federal Reserve speakers this week for additional policy cues after the central bank lowered interest rates last week and signaled potential further easing.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold edged up 0.1% to USD 3,689.08 per ounce by 0044 GMT. Bullion hit a record high of USD 3,707.40 on Wednesday.

* US gold futures for December delivery climbed 0.5% to USD 3,724.50.

* Market focus has shifted to the release of the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure price index, the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge. The data is due on Friday.

* The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points last week, signaling potential future easing while cautioning about persistent inflation.

* At least a dozen Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week, including Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, as markets look for further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy outlook.

* New Fed Governor Stephen Miran on Friday defended himself as an independent policymaker after dissenting in favour of steep rate cuts at Wednesday’s policy meeting and adding that he hopes to convince his fellow policymakers to support larger cuts in future meetings.

* Investors are broadly expecting two additional rate cuts this year — 25 bps each in October and December — with probabilities of 93% and 81%, respectively, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

* Bullion has gained more than 40% this year, driven by broader geopolitical and economic uncertainty, central bank buying, and monetary policy easing.

* Safe-haven bullion, which offers no yield, typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment.

* SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 1.94% to 994.56 metric tons on Friday from 975.66 tons on Thursday.

* Spot silver rose 0.1% to USD 43.12 per ounce, hovering near a 14-year high. Platinum eased 0.3% to USD 1,399.69 and palladium rose 0.4% to USD 1,154.17.

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)
0100	China loan prime rate 1Y, 5Y September
1400	EU consumer confidence flash September

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

US housing shares shine as Fed restarts rate cuts

NEW YORK – As the US Federal Reserve restarts interest rate cuts, housing shares are one of the areas of the stock market that may benefit, and they have perked up in recent weeks as markets priced in more monetary easing.

On Wednesday, the US central bank lowered its benchmark rate for the first time since December and indicated more cuts would follow as it tries to shore up a shaky labor market.

The Fed’s move stands to help interest-rate sensitive areas such as small-cap and consumer discretionary shares. Homebuilder stocks could also benefit if monetary easing translates into lower mortgage rates and more robust economic activity that helps the struggling housing sector, investors said.

“The Fed is rebooting the easing cycle,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones. “If we think about areas that may stand to benefit from that… homebuilders is one of them.”

The S&P 500 ended on Friday at record high levels, up over 13% on the year, after the Fed cut its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 4-4.25% range. On Thursday, the small-cap Russell 2000 posted a record-high close for the first time in nearly four years.

Some investors hope the restart of monetary easing will boost economically sensitive stocks, broadening market leadership beyond the megacap technology companies that have driven indexes higher.

The PHLX Housing index has jumped 15% so far this quarter, against an over 7% gain for the S&P 500, although the housing gauge still trails the benchmark stock market index on a year-to-date basis.

Big gainers this quarter include DR Horton, up over 30%, and KB Home and Toll Brothers, both up over 20%. Home improvement retailers Lowe’s and Home Depot HD.N are up about 20% and 13% so far in the quarter.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said this week that the contract rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.39% in the week ended September 12, the lowest since early October 2024, while analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods projected that the mortgage rates could approach 6% by year-end.

The Fed’s move to lower interest rates comes amid signs of struggle in the housing market. US single-family homebuilding plunged to a near 2-1/2-year low in August, data on Wednesday showed. Fed Chair Jerome Powell described housing sector activity as “weak” in a press conference after the central bank’s policy decision.

“If you can get some of those mortgage rates to come down, maybe that breathes a little bit of life back into the housing market,” said Jack Janasiewicz, lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, adding that getting mortgage rates down in the 5% range was an important threshold.

Investors cautioned that a lower Fed funds rate may not reduce mortgage rates by the same extent, because mortgage rates are more tied to the 10-year US Treasury yield, which is influenced by broader factors. The 10-year Treasury yield was last around 4.13%, down from 4.6% in May.

The extent of Fed rate reductions this year remains unclear, as persistently firm inflation could prompt the central bank to keep rates higher.

Data in the coming week will shed more light on the housing market, including on existing and new home sales.

“A good housing turnover is generally good for economic activity,” said Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management. “So we’d like to see those numbers rising consistently.”

Economic data next week includes an updated read of second-quarter gross domestic product, manufacturing and services sector reports, and the personal consumption expenditures price index, a closely watched inflation gauge, while investors will also be watching remarks from Powell on Tuesday.

With the central bank noting it is not on a preset path and a disparity among Fed members about the expected trajectory of rates, “this likely means there will be volatility around forthcoming economic data — especially data on the labor market and inflation,” Seth Basham, director of equity research at Wedbush, said in a note.

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by David Gregorio)

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