Dollar under pressure, safe havens rise as Trump ups tariff ante over Greenland

SINGAPORE – The dollar fell on Monday and investors unnerved by US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats against Europe over Greenland piled into the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc, in a broad risk-averse move across markets.

Trump said over the weekend he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from February 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and Britain, until the United States is allowed to buy Greenland.

Major European Union states decried the tariff threats over Greenland as blackmail on Sunday, with France proposing to respond with a range of previously untested economic countermeasures.

In the foreign exchange market, the initial knee-jerk reaction in early Asia trade was to sell the euro EUR= and sterling, in a move that pushed them to a seven-week low and one-month trough of USD 1.1572 and USD 1.3321, respectively.

However, the two currencies bounced from their lows, and it was the dollar that came under pressure as the trading day got underway, as investors assessed the longer-term implications of Trump’s latest move on the greenback’s standing.

That helped the euro reverse its losses as it gained 0.17% to trade at USD 1.1618, while the British pound similarly recovered 0.1% to USD 1.3387.

“Typically you would think tariffs being threatened would lead to a weaker euro, but as we’ve seen last year as well, when the Liberation Day tariffs were getting put in place, the impact in FX markets actually has been more towards dollar weakness every time there is heightened policy uncertainty emanating from the US,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ.

Investors had dumped the dollar in the wake of last April’s “Liberation Day” announcement when Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on the world, triggering a crisis of confidence in US assets.

A similar trend played out on Monday, as the greenback slid 0.24% against the safe-haven Swiss franc to 0.7989, and was down 0.31% to 157.63 yen.

The dollar index was little changed at 99.17.

“While you would argue that the tariffs threaten Europe, in fact, it’s actually the dollar that is bearing the brunt of it, because I think markets are pricing in increased political risk premia on the US dollar,” said Goh.

Elsewhere, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar was down 0.12% to USD 0.6683, with its losses capped by the broad dollar weakness.

The New Zealand dollar rose 0.06% to USD 0.5755.

Cryptocurrencies, which are often used as a gauge of risk sentiment, were meanwhile sold off heavily.

Bitcoin was down nearly 3% to a one-week low of USD 92,501.38, while ether sank more than 4% to USD 3,185.98.

(Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Michael Perry)

US yields climb, poised for weekly rise as investors gauge economic strength

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields rose on Friday and were on pace for a weekly advance as investors weigh recent economic data and the path of interest rates from the Federal Reserve in the near term.

Yields have been choppy throughout the week and have remained in a tight range as markets have grappled with a revelation by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that the central bank had been threatened with a criminal indictment over a building renovation project, rising tensions in the Middle East, and US economic data on the labor market and inflation.

In addition, several Fed officials this week expressed a need for the central bank to remain cautious in cutting interest rates.

“The bond market’s still relatively unclear as to where things go next, there’s lots of uncertainty really in both directions, both towards higher and lower yields,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities in New York.

“The driving force is still very much what happens to the Fed and what happens to the economy going forward, and on that, there’s just an extreme lack of clarity from investors, so that’s why we’ve been stuck in that very, very tight range in rates.”

The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note rose 4.3 basis points to 4.203% and was up 3.4 basis points for the week.

The yield on the 30-year bond rose 1.8 basis points to 4.804% and has shed 1.2 basis points on the week, putting it on track for a second straight weekly decline.

Yields moved higher after President Donald Trump on Friday praised economic adviser Kevin Hassett at a White House event and said he may want to keep him in his current role, denting market expectations he would succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Fed officials expected to speak on Friday include Bank of Boston President Susan Collins, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, rose 4.7 basis points to 3.611% after hitting a five-week high of 3.613% and is set for a second straight weekly gain.

Economic data on Friday showed manufacturing output rose 0.2% last month after an upwardly revised 0.3% gain in November, the Federal Reserve said, topping the estimate of economists polled by Reuters calling for a decline of 0.2%.

A separate report showed the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market index dropped 2 points to 37 in January, remaining below the 50 break-even point for 21 straight months as affordability concerns stymied potential buyers and rising costs dented construction activity.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 59 basis points.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.396%, its highest since November 10, after closing at 2.368% on Thursday.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.317%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.3% a year for the next decade.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak in New York; Editing by Matthew Lewis)

Gold falls over 1% as profit‑taking, easing geopolitical risks weigh

Gold fell more than 1% on Friday as investors booked profits after recent record highs, while signs of easing geopolitical tensions further dampened the metal’s safe-haven appeal.

Spot gold was down 0.5% at USD 4,592.29 per ounce as of 01:39 p.m. ET (1839 GMT), after falling as low as USD 4,536.49 earlier in the session.

However, the metal is poised for its second consecutive weekly gain, of about 1.9%, after scaling a record peak of USD 4,642.72 on Wednesday.

US gold futures for February delivery settled 0.6% lower at USD 4,595.40.

“It’s a general retreat in the commodity complex after weeks of aggressive gains, with some profit-taking. The de-escalation of Middle East tensions has also removed some of the geopolitical premium in gold and other metals, especially silver,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir.

Geopolitical tensions appeared to ease as protests in Iran subsided, while US President Donald Trump took a wait-and-see approach and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin moved to mediate in Iran and de-escalate the situation.

On the trade front, the US and Taiwan struck a deal on Thursday that lowers tariffs on many of Taiwan’s semiconductor exports and channels new investments into US tech, and risks infuriating China.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged through the first half of the year, with a first 25-basis-point cut projected in June, as per data compiled by LSEG.

Safe-haven gold tends to do well during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, as well as when interest rates are low.

“I still think we have a chance of getting to USD 5,000 sometime this year, punctuated with these big corrections in the meantime,” Meir said.

Spot silver shed 2.9% to USD 89.65 per ounce, although it was headed for a weekly gain of over 12% after hitting an all-time high of USD 93.57 in the previous session.

JP Morgan said in a note on Friday that mounting risks from loosening ex‑US supply and ETF outflows to softer industrial demand and tighter Chinese trading curbs leave silver vulnerable to a sharp correction.

Spot platinum dropped 3.3% to USD 2,330.67 per ounce and headed for a weekly gain, while palladium lost 0.6% to USD 1,790.78 per ounce.

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru, Editing by Louise Heavens, and Alan Barona)

Japanese yen rebounds from 18-month low against dollar

NEW YORK – The Japanese yen rebounded from an 18-month low against the dollar on Wednesday as Japanese officials warned of potential intervention to shore up the currency, while the US currency was modestly stronger against the euro as traders continued to evaluate likely Federal Reserve policy.

The yen has tumbled on concerns about looser fiscal and monetary policy as speculation rises that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will call an early snap election, a move that could delay parliamentary approval of a bill that grants the government the right to issue deficit-covering bonds.

“Takaichi’s plan to leverage her astonishingly high personal ratings in calling a snap election is translating into a rise in bets on reflation in the Japanese economy, more government spending and higher yields,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto. “All of that is translating into downward pressure on the yen, which of course is being offset by intervention threats from authorities.”

YEN WEAKNESS OVERDONE?

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued another verbal warning on Wednesday, saying officials would take “appropriate action against excessive FX moves without excluding any options.”

So far, however, officials have not indicated that an intervention is likely in the very near term.

“It would come as a little bit of a surprise to markets since recent commentary hasn’t conveyed much urgency,” said James Lord, global head of FX & EM strategy at Morgan Stanley.

Some also see weakness in the yen as having moved too far.

Analysts at LMAX Group note that from a technical perspective, “there are signs of a meaningful top in place after the market put in a multi-year high in 2024.”

From a fundamental perspective, “speculative yen longs have been largely unwound, leaving room for fresh short positioning if USD/JPY breaks higher through 160, though rising intervention warnings from Japanese officials add two-way risk,” they said in a report.

The yen strengthened 0.43% against the greenback to 158.46 per dollar. It earlier reached 159.45, the weakest since July 2024.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.06% to 99.13, with the euro down 0.03% at USD 1.1637.

FEDERAL RESERVE EXPECTED TO HOLD RATES

The dollar has benefited in recent weeks from rising expectations that the Fed will keep rates on hold for the next several months.

That was further boosted after data on Friday showed that the unemployment rate dipped to 4.4% in December.

Morgan Stanley pushed back its expectations for rate cuts to June and September, from January and April, after Friday’s jobs data.

“Up until now we have been quite focused on the labor market, but with the reduction in the unemployment rate we think it’s going to be difficult for that to be the driver of any near-term cuts,” Lord said.

“That arguably reduces the case for the dollar to weaken in the way that we’ve been expecting so far this year. But at the same time, I do think a lot of the uncertainty that’s been injected into the Fed debate given recent events is pushing in the other direction,” Lord added.

Concerns about Fed independence have increased as the Justice Department undertakes a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell in relation to a building renovation.

Powell called the investigation a “pretext” for the White House to gain more influence over interest rates, which US President Donald Trump wants cut dramatically.

The dollar was little changed on data on Wednesday showing that US producer prices picked up slightly in November amid a surge in the cost of gasoline, while US retail sales increased more than expected in November.

The Fed’s “Beige Book” also showed that economic activity increased in most parts of the United States and employment was mostly unchanged in recent weeks.

Traders remain focused on rising geopolitical tensions.

Iran has warned neighbors hosting US troops that it would hit American bases if the United States strikes, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Wednesday, as Iran seeks to deter Trump’s threats to intervene on behalf of protesters.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 3.58% to USD 97,428.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Additional reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter, Amanda Cooper, Rod Nickel, and Will Dunham)

US oil prices dip more than USD 1 as Trump remarks reduce fears about Iran

TOKYO – US oil prices fell more than USD 1 in early Asian trade on Thursday after US President Donald Trump said killings in Iran’s crackdown on nationwide protests were subsiding, easing fears of supply disruptions and possible military action against Iran.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were trading at USD 60.78 a barrel at 2322 GMT, down USD 1.24, or 2%, from the previous day’s close.

WTI had settled more than 1% higher on Wednesday, then gave back most of those gains after Trump’s remarks reduced concerns over a potential US attack on Iran and supply disruptions.

Trump said on Wednesday afternoon that he had been told that killings in Iran’s crackdown on nationwide protests were subsiding and he believed there was currently no plan for large-scale executions.

(Reporting by Yuka Obayashi; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

Dollar rebounds with CPI data in line, bankers back Powell

SINGAPORE – The US dollar recovered ground to near a one-month high in early Asian trade on Wednesday after US CPI data that was broadly in line with estimates, firming up expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold later this month despite unprecedented pressure from the White House to lower interest rates.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was last up 0.3% at 99.18, retracing losses from Monday after US President Donald Trump threatened Fed Chair Jerome Powell with a criminal indictment.

Global central bank chiefs and top Wall Street bank CEOs lined up in support of Powell on Tuesday.

“There’s a very loud chorus of opinion coming from politicians, former Fed chairmen and other officials that Fed independence is sacrosanct and cannot be interfered with,” said Brian Martin, head of G3 Economics at ANZ in London.

“It risks having adverse consequences of higher inflation, higher funding costs for the government and more volatility in economic activity,” he said on a podcast.

“Markets are erring on the side of caution: They’re not jumping to conclusions, and I think that sense will prevail and that the independence of the Fed will be protected.”

On Tuesday, data showed US consumer prices increased 0.3% in December compared to the previous month, lifted by higher costs for rents and food as some of the distortions related to the government shutdown that had artificially lowered inflation in November unwound.

The print cemented expectations the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged this month, with Fed funds futures currently pricing an implied 95.6% probability that the US central bank will remain on hold when its next two-day meeting concludes on 28 January, unchanged from a day earlier, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

“Indirect attacks on the Fed’s independence aren’t likely to roil the financial markets in the US, so long as inflation there remains under control,” wrote analysts from Capital Economics.

Volatility in most currency pairs was subdued in early Asian trading ahead of a possible Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump’s emergency tariffs.

“It could rule them legit, and if so we just move on. We suspect they will be struck down, and we’ll probably still just move on,” analysts from ING wrote in a research report.

“This Treasury market is showing a remarkable capacity to just not care too much about stuff.”

Against the yen, the US dollar was last flat at 159.025 yen, little changed after the Reuters Tankan poll showed Japanese manufacturers’ confidence slipped to a six-month low in January, albeit still in positive territory.

The yen had earlier fallen to its weakest levels since January 2024 on speculation that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may call parliamentary elections to consolidate her power.

The Yomiuri newspaper reported on Wednesday that she is considering snap lower house elections on February 8.

Against the Chinese yuan trading offshore in Hong Kong, the US dollar was last flat at 6.9708 yuan ahead of the release of Chinese trade data for December in a few hours’ time.

The Australian dollar was last up 0.1% at USD 0.6688, while the New Zealand dollar nudged 0.1% upwards to USD 0.5740.

The euro was last flat at USD 1.1642, while the British pound also held steady at USD 1.3423.

Bitcoin gained 1.8% to USD 95,751.99, rising to the highest level in two months, while ether was last up 4.0% at USD 3,334.46.

(Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter; Editing by Stephen Coates)

Gold, silver extend record-breaking rallies as uncertainty persists

Gold surged to a record high on Wednesday, with silver rising in its wake, as geopolitical and economic uncertainties drove investors toward safe-haven assets while expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts added further momentum.

Spot gold was 0.9% higher at USD 4,628.68 per ounce by 01:38 p.m. ET (1838 GMT), after earlier hitting a record high of USD 4,641.40.

US gold futures for February delivery settled 0.8% higher at USD 4,635.70.

“All roads are leading to gold and silver,” said Alex Ebkarian, COO at Allegiance Gold, citing demand from diverse buyers and noting the market is in a structural bull phase.

Gold, which does not yield interest, typically performs well in periods of low interest rates and heightened uncertainty.

Iran warned neighbours hosting US troops it would strike American bases if Washington intervenes over protests in the country, while Danish and Greenlandic ministers will meet US Vice President JD Vance after President Donald Trump renewed demands for US control of Greenland.

Meanwhile, data showed US retail sales rose above expectations in November, while PPI met monthly forecasts but exceeded annual estimates, following weaker-than-expected December core CPI figures released on Tuesday. Traders continued to anticipate two interest rate cuts this year.

Concerns over Fed independence remained, as central bank chiefs from around the world lined up in support of Fed chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, after the Trump administration threatened him with a criminal indictment.

Spot silver was up 5.2% at USD 91.46 per ounce, after scaling a record high of USD 92.23.

“We anticipate some volatility, but I see silver at USD 100 as no different than at USD 90. Our short-term forecast is between USD 100 to USD 144,” Ebkarian said, adding that metals are likely to maintain their upward trend through the first quarter.

Spot platinum climbed 2.4% to USD 2,379.68 an ounce, and palladium rose 1.3% to USD 1,862.96 an ounce.

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Alexander Smith, Krishna Chandra Eluri, and Shailesh Kuber)

Gold, silver hit record highs as inflation data cements Fed rate cut bets

Gold hit a record high on Tuesday, as US inflation data cemented bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year and persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainties drove safe-haven demand, while silver also hit a fresh peak.

Spot gold steadied at USD 4,591.49 per ounce as of 01:31 p.m. ET (1831 GMT), following a record high of USD 4,634.33 earlier in the session. US gold futures for February settled 0.3% lower at USD 4,599.10.

“The reason for the slightly positive tone across the board in the markets was the benign CPI data (which) portends a higher likelihood of Fed rate cuts in the future,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

The US core Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year in December, falling short of analysts’ expectations of 0.3% and 2.7%, respectively.

Trump reiterated his push to cut interest rates “meaningfully” after the inflation data.

The Fed is expected to keep rates steady at its January 27-28 meeting, though investors currently anticipate two interest rate cuts this year. Lower interest rates tend to be favourable for non-yielding bullion.

Fundamental factors like geopolitical tensions and questions over Fed independence continue to support safe-haven gold, said Meger.

Concerns over Fed independence grew after the Trump administration opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, drawing criticism from former Fed chiefs and global central bankers.

Trump has also threatened to slap a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, risking reopening old wounds with Beijing, Tehran’s top partner. Elsewhere, Russia struck cities across Ukraine with missiles and drones overnight.

Commerzbank raised its 2026 year-end gold forecast to USD 4,900.

Meanwhile, CME Group said on Monday it will adjust margin setting for precious metals to address market volatility.

Elsewhere, spot silver gained 2.1% to USD 86.74 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of USD 89.10 earlier in the session.

“Despite technical indicators screaming correction, traders continue to favor bullish options (for silver)… Investors should prepare for sharp countermoves within this high-volatility environment, even as the broader bullish bias remains intact,” said Hugo Pascal, a precious metals trader at InProved.

Spot platinum was unchanged at USD 2,343.35 per ounce, and palladium rose 1.4% to USD 1,868.68 per ounce.

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore, Krishna Chandra Eluri, and Sahal Muhammed)

US yields fall after inflation data matches expectations

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields declined on Tuesday, after a reading on inflation for December came in as expected and kept intact market expectations for the path of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.

The Labor Department said the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% last month, matching expectations of economists polled by Reuters. In the 12 months through December, the CPI advanced 2.7%, equaling November’s gain and in line with expectations.

The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note slipped 2.4 basis points to 4.175%.

“It’s more of a relief trade that indeed inflation does not appear to be accelerating and so that lingering concern about inflation being too high and what that means for a host of issues, that’s a concern that persists in the minds of markets and investors,” said Bill Merz, head of capital market research at US Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.

“When we have numbers like today’s that alleviate some degree of that tail risk of higher inflation, that’s a constructive sign, and we’re seeing the bond markets have a modest but constructive reaction to that as well.”

The yield on the 30-year bond fell 1.7 basis points to 4.823%.

Expectations for the path of Fed rate cuts were little changed after the data, with markets pricing in only a 2.8% chance of a cut at the central bank’s meeting later this month, down from 4.4% in the prior session, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Expectations for a cut of at least 25 basis points at the Fed’s March meeting dipped to 27.4% from 28.7% on Monday.

Markets are currently pricing in roughly 50 basis points of cuts this year, according to LSEG data.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said the Fed is committed to returning inflation to its 2% target and Tuesday’s data was encouraging for views that it will converge more towards that level this year, but there was no near-term reason to cut rates further.

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin is scheduled to speak later in the day.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, shed 2.5 basis points to 3.522%.

An auction of USD 22 billion in 30-year bonds was seen as strong by analysts, with above average demand of 2.42 times the bonds on sale. Auctions of USD 58 billion in three-year notes and USD 39 billion in 10-year notes on Monday were also seen as solid by market participants.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.368%, its highest since mid-November.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.3%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.3% a year for the next decade.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Susan Fenton and Nick Zieminski)

Wall Street falls with financials amid credit card rate plan concern

NEW YORK – US stocks ended lower on Tuesday, led by a drop in financial shares as comments from JPMorgan executives added to worries about US President Donald Trump’s recent proposal for a cap on credit‑card rates.

Helping to limit the day’s decline, a report early in the day showed that a reading on US inflation for December came in as expected, leaving intact market expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.

Trump’s proposed 10% cap on credit-card interest rates would directly hurt financial companies’ profits, and top JPMorgan executives, including CEO Jamie Dimon, warned that Trump’s plan would also severely hurt consumers.

That extended this week’s selloff in financials over the proposal, which Trump made last Friday.

Shares of Visa fell 4.5%, Mastercard dropped 3.8%, and the financial sector fell 1.8%, leading declines in the S&P 500.

Shares of JPMorgan ended down 4.2%. The bank reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit but also a drop in investment banking fees.

“Financials are getting hit by Trump’s credit-card proposal,” said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York.

“It seems to be sinking in,” he said. “I think it’s going to be extremely difficult to have that become a reality, but it’s still out there.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 398.21 points, or 0.80%, to 49,191.99, the S&P 500 lost 13.53 points, or 0.19%, to 6,963.74, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 24.03 points, or 0.10%, to 23,709.87.

Results from JPMorgan and other companies on Tuesday also unofficially kicked off the fourth-quarter US earnings season.

Other big banks, due to report their quarterly numbers later this week, were also lower even as analysts expected most banks to post stronger results for the last quarter of 2025.

Delta Air Lines shares eased 2.4% as the midpoint of its 2026 profit forecast fell short of analysts’ expectations.

Earnings news overall for the reporting period will most likely be positive, said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president, adviser for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut, adding, “I suspect there are going to be some upward revisions” for 2026.

The day’s declines, he said, most likely reflect “a little bit of letting the air out of the balloon,” after recent record highs. The Dow and S&P 500 both registered record closing highs on Monday.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.15-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 577 new highs and 77 new lows on the NYSE.

On the Nasdaq, 2,068 stocks rose and 2,701 fell as declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.31-to-1 ratio.

Volume on US exchanges was 18.68 billion shares, compared with the roughly 16.4 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch in New York; Additional reporting by Medha Singh and Pranav Kashyap in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel and Matthew Lewis)

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