Gold hits record high on safe-haven demand; silver climbs to new peak

Gold touched a record high on Tuesday, coming within a whisker of breaching the key USD 4,500 per-ounce level, as investors flocked to the safe haven on US-Venezuela tensions, while silver also rallied to an all-time peak.

Spot gold rose 0.9% to USD 4,486.55 per ounce by 0753 GMT, after hitting a record USD 4,497.55 earlier in the session. US gold futures for February delivery gained 1.1% to USD 4,519.20.

“US-Venezuela tensions are keeping gold on the radar for investors as an uncertainty hedge,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, adding that gold had surged this week as part of a broader positioning shift with US interest rates projected to ease further.

Waterer said buyers continued to see precious metals as an effective way to diversify portfolios and preserve value, adding that “I don’t think we are at the high watermark yet for gold or silver.”

US President Donald Trump last week announced a “blockade” of all oil tankers under sanctions entering and leaving Venezuela.

Further support for gold came from reports that Trump could name a new Federal Reserve Chair by early January, with markets pricing in two rate cuts for next year amid expectations of a more dovish policy stance.

Bullion, a classic refuge in times of geopolitical and economic unease, has surged more than 70% so far this year, riding a potent mix of geopolitical risks, rate-cut bets, central bank buying, de-dollarization, and renewed exchange-traded fund inflows.

“With year-end approaching, thinner liquidity conditions could amplify price swings,” said Frank Walbaum, a market analyst at trading and investment platform Naga, noting that gold might remain especially sensitive to geopolitical headlines and shifts in rate expectations.

Spot silver advanced 0.8% to USD 69.56 per ounce after touching a record high of USD 69.98, with its year-to-date gains topping 141% and outpacing gold on supply deficits, industrial demand, and investment inflows.

Some consolidation was possible over the festive period as liquidity thinned, said Michael Brown, a senior strategist at Pepperstone.

He, however, said the rally should resume in earnest once volumes returned, with the USD 5,000 level a natural target for gold next year and the USD 75 mark a longer-term objective for silver.

Spot platinum jumped 3.1% to USD 2,185.05, its highest in more than 17 years, while palladium rose 2.7% to a three-year high of USD 1,806.25, tracking strength in gold and silver.

(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Subhranshu Sahu)

Oil slips as market weighs geopolitical risks against bearish fundamentals

SINGAPORE – Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as traders weighed geopolitical risks against bearish fundamentals, after the US signaled it might sell the Venezuelan crude it has seized, while Ukraine’s attacks on Russian vessels and piers heightened fears of supply disruption.

Brent crude futures edged lower by 13 cents, or 0.2%, to USD 61.94 per barrel by 0720 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude eased 14 cents, or 0.2%, to USD 57.87 a barrel.

On Monday, prices rose over 2% with Brent posting its best daily performance in two months and WTI climbing the most since November 14.

“Crude oil markets are grinding through the final weeks of 2025 with prices largely subdued, reflecting a tug-of-war between persistent bearish fundamentals and intermittent bullish headlines,” Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova, said in a note.

While prices have shown modest rebounds on geopolitical headlines throughout 2025, the broader narrative points to a balance of sluggish demand and oversupply, she said.

“Overall, the trend remains weak as structural supply concerns eclipse short-lived risk-off rallies.”

But markets are cautious as traders weigh the geopolitical risks against forecasts of ample supply in early 2026, leaving prices potentially sensitive to any prolonged disruptions.

On Monday, US President Donald Trump said the US might keep or sell the oil it had seized off the coast of Venezuela in recent weeks, amid his pressure campaign on Venezuela, which includes a “blockade” of oil tankers under sanctions entering and leaving the country.

“It is true that even if Venezuelan oil exports were to fall to zero over the near term, oil markets will likely still be well supplied in H1 26,” Barclays said in a note dated Monday.

However, Barclays estimates the global oil surplus will shrink to just 700,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026, and a prolonged disruption could tighten the market further, depleting recent inventory builds.

Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine waged attacks on each other’s facilities on the Black Sea, a vital export route for both countries.

Russian forces struck Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa late on Monday and damaged port facilities and a ship, in the second attack on the region in less than 24 hours.

A Ukrainian drone attack damaged two vessels, two piers, and sparked a fire in a village in Russia’s Krasnodar region, regional authorities said on Monday.

Ukraine has also targeted Russia’s maritime logistics, focusing on shadow-fleet oil tankers that attempt to bypass sanctions on Russia over the nearly four-year war.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by Sonali Paul, Neil Fullick, and Christian Schmollinger)

US crude futures jump in Asia trade on Trump’s Venezuela blockade

BEIJING – US crude futures opened a dollar higher in Asian trading on Thursday after President Donald Trump placed a blockade on tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, and most exports from the country remained on hold.

The West Texas Intermediate contract was up 98 cents, or 1.75%, at USD 56.92 per barrel as of 1109 GMT.

Trump on Tuesday had ordered a blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, calling President Nicolas Maduro’s administration a foreign terrorist organization.

Sources said most Venezuelan exports remained on hold on Wednesday due to the blockade even though Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA restarting loading crude and fuel cargoes after it had had to suspend operations because of a cyberattack. Chevron vessels were continuing to depart for the US

“While enforcement details remain unclear, the unexpected escalation in US pressure against the Maduro regime has sparked supply disruption concerns and triggered short covering in an oversold market,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.

The news prompted oil prices to rise by more than 1% in the previous session, rebounding from five-year lows driven by progress on Ukraine peace talks that seemed to point the way to a potential easing of Russian sanctions.

(Reporting by Colleen Howe; Editing by Chris Reese and David Gregorio)

US Treasury yields steady as delayed data clouds economic outlook

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields were little changed on the day on Wednesday as traders parsed data releases that have been delayed and show a less complete than usual picture of the US economy following a 43-day federal government shutdown, with the Federal Reserve not expected to cut rates again for several months.

Data on Tuesday showed that the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose in November, though analysts say that gaps in the data make the release less credible than usual.

The next major US economic release will be consumer price inflation for November on Thursday.

“The market really still lacks a data focus,” said Tom di Galoma, managing director at Mischler Financial Group, though “there seems to be a lot of scrutiny on it – whether or not it’s the right data and whether or not it’s going to change drastically in the future.”

A sharply divided Fed cut interest rates last week but signaled borrowing costs are unlikely to drop further in the near term as it awaits clarity on the direction of a job market showing signs of softening, inflation that “remains somewhat elevated” and an economy it sees picking up steam next year.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Wednesday that the US central bank still has room to cut interest rates amid concerns that the job market has softened.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in only a 24% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s January 27-28 meeting, with the next cut seen likely in April.

The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with Fed interest rate expectations, was last up 0.8 of a basis point on the day at 3.487%.

The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes was little changed at 4.149%.

The yield curve between two- and 10-year yields steepened by around half a basis point to 66 basis points.

Bond yields have been largely rangebound for the past few months as traders wait for fresh catalysts that will drive Fed policy.

“It just seems to me that until we get a new Fed chair and get some kind of direction, or the economy either does much better or much worse, there’s probably not a lot to read into here,” said di Galoma.

US President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal last week that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh were at the top of the list for Fed chair. The WSJ also reported on Tuesday that Trump is set to interview Waller for the job on Wednesday. The new chair will replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May.

Waller said on Wednesday he would “absolutely” defend the US central bank’s independence if it were challenged.

The Treasury will sell USD 13 billion in 20-year bonds on Wednesday to good demand.

The bonds sold at a high yield of 4.798%, close to where they were trading before the auction. Demand was 2.67 times the amount of debt on offer, the highest since October.

The US government will also sell USD 24 billion in five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities on Thursday.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Nick Zieminski)

US yields fall as unemployment rate rises

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields fell on Tuesday after data showed an unexpected increase in the unemployment rate last month, though analysts also noted that the data is less reliable than usual due to government shutdown-related distortions.

Employers added 64,000 jobs last month, above economists’ expectations for 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the rate would remain unchanged on the month at 4.4%.

“I don’t think there’s much signal we can get from today,” said Will Compernolle, a macro strategist at FHN Financial in Chicago.

“The most important thing I would say is the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6%. But even there, if you look at the BLS report, they have a technical note that says for a number of reasons the margin of error for November is higher,” Compernolle said.

The delayed employment report for November and a partial update for October published by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday also did not include the unemployment rate and other metrics for October after the 43-day shutdown of the government prevented the collection of data from households.

“It looks like the labor market is still gradually cooling rather than showing an acceleration in deterioration. So, I don’t think this data overall changes our understanding of how the economy is doing or how the Fed is going to react to it,” Compernolle said.

The two-year note yield, which typically moves in step with Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, was last down 2.3 basis points on the day at 3.485%. The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes fell 2.7 basis points to 4.155%.

The yield curve between two- and 10-year notes was little changed on the day at 67 basis points.

A sharply divided Fed cut interest rates last week but signaled borrowing costs are unlikely to drop further in the near term as it awaits clarity on the direction of a job market showing signs of softening, inflation that “remains somewhat elevated,” and an economy it sees picking up steam next year.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in only 24% odds of a rate cut at the Fed’s January 27-28 meeting, with the next cut seen likely in April.

Other data on Tuesday showed that US retail sales were unexpectedly flat in October, although consumer spending appears to have remained on a solid footing at the start of the fourth quarter despite the rising cost of living that is forcing some households to scale back.

The next major US economic release will be consumer price inflation data for November due on Thursday.

Traders are also waiting to see who US President Donald Trump names as the next Fed Chair to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May.

Both Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett are qualified to lead the Federal Reserve, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday, adding that any candidate President Donald Trump picks for the job needs to have “an open mind”.

Trump is also set to interview Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller for Fed chair on Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Andrew Heavens)

Gold inches up as US unemployment rate rises in November

Gold rose on Tuesday after a US jobs report showed the unemployment rate rose last month from September, reinforcing bets of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and sending the dollar index lower.

Spot gold gained 0.2% to USD 4,310.21 per ounce, as of 01:48 p.m. ET (18:48 GMT). US gold futures settled 0.1% lower at USD 4,332.3.

The US dollar fell to a two-month low, making greenback-priced bullion more affordable for overseas buyers. Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields also edged lower.

“(The) data gives the Fed more reason to cut rates, and if they cut rates, that’s bullish for gold … that’s the way the market’s interpreting it right now,” said RJO Futures senior market strategist Bob Haberkorn.

US job growth rebounded in November, but the unemployment rate was at 4.6% in the backdrop of economic uncertainty stemming from President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy. A Reuters survey of economists had estimated an unemployment rate of 4.4%.

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee announced a quarter-point rate cut, and Chair Jerome Powell’s accompanying comments were perceived as less hawkish than expected.

US rate futures still expect two cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026, pricing in 59 bps of easing next year. Non-yielding gold tends to thrive in a low-interest rate environment.

Investors await November’s Consumer Price index, due on Thursday, and Personal Consumption Expenditures index, due on Friday.

If gold finishes 2025 above USD 4,400, then it could see USD 4,859-USD 5,590 in 2026, said Alex Ebkarian, COO at Allegiance Gold, and added that silver could retest the USD 50/oz level next year.

Spot silver fell 0.3% to USD 63.75 an ounce, retreating from a record high of USD 64.65 on Friday. Platinum rose 4% to USD 1,854.95, its highest level since September 2011, and palladium gained 2.5% to USD 1,606.41, hitting a two-month high.

“Platinum group metals are breaking out as supply tightens and demand expands,” Ebkarian noted.

(Reporting by Sarah Qureshi, Noel John, and Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Sahal Muhammed)

Foreign inflows into Asian bonds hit six-month high in November

Foreign investors snapped up Asian bonds in November as they sought shelter from an equity market selloff driven by concerns over stretched tech valuations and uncertainty around the US Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.

They bought a net USD 10.86 billion of bonds in South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, India, and Indonesia in November, marking their largest monthly net purchase since USD 15.29 billion of inflows in May, data from local regulatory authorities and bond market associations showed.

“Divergence between equity and debt assets emerged again in November, likely due to investors rotating to low-risk assets,” said Khoon Goh, the head of Asia research at ANZ.

South Korean bonds drew USD 11.08 billion, the largest monthly net inflow since at least 2016, on optimism over their inclusion in the FTSE World Government Bond Index starting in April 2026.

“We suspect that part of the strong inflows into South Korean bonds was diverted from the equity market,” ANZ’s Goh said.

Thai bonds recorded a third consecutive month of foreign inflows, totalling USD 319 million, while Malaysian bonds saw net foreign purchases of USD 316 million.

In contrast, foreign investors sold Indian and Indonesian bonds worth USD 447 million and USD 400 million, respectively.

The US Federal Reserve last week cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a 3.50%–3.75% range, reinforcing expectations that lower US borrowing costs would support regional assets.

Jonathan Davis, portfolio manager at PineBridge Investments, said that as equity valuations climb alongside lingering macro uncertainty, investors should remain focused on core fixed income and mindful of risk concentration in more indebted issuers.

“That is why we see a growing number of institutions looking toward the Asia-Pacific dollar bond market to maintain stability and diversify risks within their core fixed income portfolios.”

(Reporting by Gaurav Dogra and Patturaja Murugaboopathy in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

US Treasury yields dip as investors await jobs, inflation data

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields dipped on Monday as investors waited for jobs and inflation data due this week, which will provide the last look at major economic releases for the year.

An increasingly divided Federal Reserve cut rates last week on concerns about a weakening labor market, even as many officials are concerned about sticky inflation.

A data void, as the federal government catches up from a 43-day shutdown, has added to uncertainty around the US economic outlook.

In the absence of government reports, investors have followed private jobs indicators. “And so there seems to be a little bit less consternation about the November jobs report in particular,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.

“Part of it may also be that the Federal Reserve will have another month’s worth of jobs data by the time they next need to make a decision, so this interim month’s jobs data is not hugely important,” he added.

The monthly jobs report for November and retail sales data for October are due on Tuesday, consumer price inflation data is due on Thursday and Personal Consumption Expenditures for October is due on Friday.

The two-year note yield, which typically moves in step with Fed rate expectations, fell 2.5 basis points to 3.506%. The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes fell 1.4 basis points to 4.182%.

The yield curve between two- and 10-year notes steepened by around a basis point to 67 basis points, the steepest since April 9.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in only 22% odds that the Fed will cut rates at its January 27-28 meeting, with the next cut seen likely in April.

LeBas noted that those odds could change quickly depending on the data. “It’s still my base case that labor market weakness, despite divided opinions on the FOMC, will spur additional rate cuts in the early part of ’26,” he said.

New York Fed President John Williams said on Monday the Fed’s interest rate cut last week was the right move and leaves it in a good position to deal with an economy that’s on track to perform fairly well next year.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said a changing inflation outlook tilted her toward supporting last week’s central bank interest rate cut.

Investors are also watching to see who US President Donald Trump will appoint to head the US central bank when Jerome Powell’s term ends in May.

Trump said on Friday he had narrowed his search for a new Fed chair to two people – former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett – and he should at least be consulted on decisions about interest rates.

However, Hassett’s candidacy has received some pushback from people close to Trump, CNBC reported on Monday.

Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court’s conservative justices have signaled reluctance to give Trump authority over the Federal Reserve in a major case set to be argued next month.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell. Editing by Mark Potter and Nick Zieminski)

Wall Street closes lower as investors position for busy week of data

Wall Street closed lower on Monday as investors braced for a slew of economic data later this week while assessing reports on Federal Reserve candidates and commentary from policymakers for clues on the interest rate outlook.

The nonfarm payroll figures for October and November are due later this week, along with reports on retail sales, business activity and inflation. October’s jobs data was delayed by the government shutdown earlier this quarter.

“Markets today are struggling with where to find the leadership, in terms of not wanting all the eggs in the AI basket and not having a lot of data yet,” said Carol Schleif, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office. “People will hold their breath a little bit before the jobs numbers this week and whether or not those are supportive of more rate cuts.”

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq had logged their steepest daily declines in more than three weeks on Friday amid concerns about inflation and debt-fueled AI investments.

Traders also assessed a report that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett’s candidacy for the Fed chair role received some pushback from people close to US President Donald Trump.

Speculation has been rife over a possible frontrunner as Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. Expectations for a dovish Fed chair have fueled bets for interest rate cuts next year.

Also on Monday, New York Fed President John Williams said the central bank’s interest rate cut last week leaves it in a good position, while Fed Governor Stephen Miran argued that current inflation does not reflect the true supply-demand dynamics.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 41.49 points, or 0.09%, to 48,416.56, the S&P 500 lost 10.90 points, or 0.16%, to 6,816.51 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 137.76 points, or 0.59%, to 23,057.41.

Eight of the 11 S&P 500 major industry sectors rose, led by healthcare stocks, which popped 1.3%.

Information technology stocks slipped 1%, dragged down by ServiceNow, which fell 11.5% following a report that the cybersecurity company is in advanced talks to buy startup Armis.

In other company moves, Tesla rose 3.5% after CEO Elon Musk said the electric vehicle maker was testing its robotaxis without safety monitors in the front passenger seat.

IRobot plunged 72.7% after the Roomba vacuum-cleaner maker filed for bankruptcy protection.

Declining issues equaled advancers at a 1-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 283 new highs and 93 new lows on the NYSE. On the Nasdaq, 1,715 stocks rose and 3,021 fell as declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.76-to-1 ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 30 new 52-week highs and six new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 133 new highs and 198 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was 17.13 billion shares, compared with the 17.10 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Reporting by Abigail Summerville in New York and Johann M Cherian and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar and Matthew Lewis)

Asian stocks cautiously higher as tech sector rattled by Oracle

SINGAPORE – Asian stocks advanced in early trade on Friday following strength on Wall Street overnight, though a fresh decline in Oracle’s share price sent jitters through the tech sector.

Financial markets had to move fast to find their footing this week when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates but gave a less hawkish outlook than expected, and the return of AI bubble worries added to the stress for investors.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.7%, tracking mostly higher US markets on Thursday – the Dow and Russell 2000 indices hit new highs but the Nasdaq fell.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 outperformed the region in morning trade, climbing 1% as shares in Softbank Group 9984.T surged 6% after Bloomberg News reported it is considering acquiring the US data centre company Switch Inc.

S&P 500 e-mini futures were unchanged, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.2% as markets were on edge after Oracle shares plunged 13%, sparking a tech selloff, as the company’s massive spending and weak forecasts fanned doubts over how quickly the big bets on AI will pay off.

“Oracle announced disappointing earnings alongside further investment in data centres, triggering fresh concerns about AI-related spending, with investors questioning whether the high level of investment will ultimately deliver the required returns,” analysts from Westpac wrote in a research note.

Tech stocks received some support after Broadcom projected first-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates on Thursday. But gains were tempered after the company said margins would fall due to a higher mix of AI revenue, dragging its shares down 5% in extended trading.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was last at a two-month low of 98.30, after the Fed’s less hawkish than expected outlook on rates.

Overnight, the dollar was further undermined after jobless claims data showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased by the most in nearly 4-1/2 years last week. The data are often volatile around this time of year, and the four-week average of claims suggested labor market conditions remained stable.

Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 75.6% probability that the US central bank will hold interest rates at its next meeting on 28 January, compared to a 73.9% chance a day earlier, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Markets are pricing in at least two rate cuts for next year after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a post-policy press conference that he did not “think a rate hike is anyone’s base case.”

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond was last at 4.151%, up 1.2 basis points compared with late US levels.

Brent crude rose 0.5% to USD 61.59 as investors focused their attention on Russia-Ukraine peace talks, after having risen earlier on news that the US had seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela.

On Thursday, the US issued new sanctions targeting Venezuela, imposing curbs on three nephews of President Nicolas Maduro’s wife, as well as six crude oil tankers and shipping companies linked to them.

Precious metals markets pulled back from fresh highs. Gold was flat at USD 4,281.91, while silver retreated from record highs, down 0.6% at USD 63.17.

Crypto markets remained under pressure, with bitcoin off 0.4% at USD 92,571.96 and ether down 0.6% at USD 3,231.69.

(Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle

Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work

Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning

Philippines Trade Update: Trade trajectories trend along

Policy Rate Updates: Double cut finale