US dollar drops as investors prepare for court battle on tariffs

NEW YORK – The dollar fell on Thursday as investors prepared for US President Donald Trump to battle a US trade court ruling on Wednesday that blocked most of his proposed tariffs.

A federal appeals court late on Thursday, however, reinstated Trump’s levies on imports. The order from the United States Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington provided no opinion or reasoning but directed the plaintiffs in the case to respond by June 5 and the administration by June 9.

The greenback showed little reaction to the news. Senior Trump administration officials earlier downplayed the ruling’s impact, expressing confidence it would be overturned on appeal and insisting other legal avenues are available in the interim.

“Markets were quick to realize that the ruling was sort of narrow, meaning it was only focused on one aspect of the tariff plan here – emergency authorization,” said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York. “There were still plenty of other avenues for Trump.”

The dollar had rallied on the ruling.

The US currency has weakened on concerns that tariffs will slow the economy and reignite inflation, while the erratic implementation of Trump’s policies is seen as denting the appeal of US assets to foreign investors.

“The deeper issue remains a persistent lack of clarity surrounding trade policy,” said Uto Shinohara, senior investment strategist at Mesirow Currency Management in Chicago.

The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates on hold on concerns about higher inflation as Fed officials wait to see how the trade policies will affect the US economy.

Trump, in a private meeting at the White House on Thursday, told Fed Chair Jerome Powell he was making a “mistake” by not lowering interest rates.

“This is not likely to be the end of tariff policy, and in some respects, if the administration wins its appeal or opts for alternative legal paths to tariff implementation, they could aim for the tariff agenda as a whole to be more entrenched than it was previously,” Goldman Sachs’ forex analysts said in a report on Thursday.

US economic pessimism declined earlier this week after Trump on the weekend delayed a plan to impose 50% tariffs on European Union imports.

The euro was last up 0.73% at USD 1.1374 after falling to USD 1.1209, the lowest since May 19.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.57% to 143.99. It earlier reached 146.28, the highest since May 15.

The dollar fell 0.59% to 0.822 Swiss franc.

The greenback also weakened on news that the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits rose more than expected last week, and the unemployment rate appeared to have picked up in May, suggesting increasing layoffs as tariffs cloud the economic outlook.

Investors are also watching the progress of a tax cut and spending bill that is working its way through the US Congress and which is expected to add trillions in US debt over the coming decade. Some Republicans have criticized it for not having enough spending cuts.

Trump’s budget chief said on Wednesday the White House intends to send Congress a package next week to formalize cuts made by billionaire Elon Musk’s team targeting federal government spending.

Longer-dated US Treasury yields rose last week and demand for the Treasury’s 20-year bond auction was soft due to rising concerns about the deteriorating US fiscal outlook.

The yen also weakened against the dollar earlier this week on reports that Japan will consider trimming issuance of super-long bonds in the wake of recent sharp yield increases in the country.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Additional reporting by Laura Matthews and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York, Rae Wee in Singapore, and Lucy Raitano in London; Editing by David Holmes, Richard Chang, and Sandra Maler)

US appeals court reinstates Trump tariffs, sowing market confusion

NEW YORK – A US appeals court reinstated President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on Thursday, leaving Wall Street with no clear direction a day after most of the tariffs were blocked by a trade court, a move that had given markets a brief boost.

Chaotic US trade policy has sent global markets on a roller coaster in recent months. Equity markets were rattled by Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff announcements, which have since been repeatedly delayed and adjusted.

Following a market revolt after the April 2 tariff shock, Trump paused most import duties for 90 days and vowed to hammer out bilateral deals with trade partners.

Markets have swung wildly through Trump’s on-and-off tariff changes. The S&P 500 index is up 4.1% since duties were announced while European stocks have gained 2.0%.

Gold is up 5.9% from April 2, and the US dollar index is down 4.4%. Ten-year Treasury yields have climbed 23 basis points to around 4.4%.

But US stocks showed little reaction to the appeals court decision, having already pulled back from the rally sparked by Wednesday’s trade court ruling.

Markets have grown accustomed to the president announcing steep tariffs only to postpone them soon afterward, giving rise to the acronym TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), coined by the Financial Times.

Asked on Wednesday by a reporter for his response to the term TACO, Trump said the question was “nasty” and in his defense of tariff changes, said: “It’s called negotiation.”

“Trump has already rolled back most of these tariffs anyway, so these court rulings are just headlines,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of 50 Park Investments in New York.

“As far as I’m concerned, as long as the market doesn’t tank on the news, it’s just a secondary byproduct,” Sarhan added.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 117.03 points, or 0.28%, to 42,215.73, the S&P 500 gained 23.62 points, or 0.40%, to 5,912.17, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 74.93 points, or 0.40%, to 19,175.87.

(Reporting by the Asia markets team; additional reporting by Stephen Culp and Caroline Valetkevitch in New York and Dhara Ranasinghe in London; Writing by Rocky Swift. Editing by Sam Holmes, Ros Russell, and Nia Williams)

Wall Street ends up with Nvidia, appeals court reinstates Trump tariffs

NEW YORK – US stocks ended higher on Thursday as shares of Nvidia gained after its quarterly results, while investors digested a late-afternoon court ruling that reinstated the most sweeping of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The appeals court ruling came a day after a trade court had ordered an immediate block on the tariffs.

Trading was choppy for much of the day and indexes ended well off their highs of the session, however, with investors trying to digest the rulings, and as shares of Salesforce fell 3.3%. Salesforce’s stock was down even as the enterprise software provider raised its annual revenue and adjusted profit forecasts.

“Trump has already rolled back most of these tariffs anyway, so these court rulings are just headlines,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of 50 Park Investments in New York.

“As long as the market doesn’t tank on the news, it’s just a secondary” thing, he said.

Nvidia gained 3.2% after the company late on Wednesday reported upbeat sales results, driven by customers stockpiling AI chips ahead of US export restrictions on China.

The company, however, warned that the new curbs are expected to cut USD 8 billion from its current-quarter sales.

Optimism about corporate earnings and Nvidia in particular is providing some support, said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president, adviser for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut.

“It’s about corporate earnings in general,” he said.

Nvidia, which is now up just 3.6% for the year, was the last of the “Magnificent Seven” megacap tech and growth companies to report results for this earnings period.

Trade developments have whipsawed the stock market this year, especially after Trump’s April 2 announcement of sweeping tariffs on imports globally.

The S&P 500 has rebounded from a selloff in early April as trade tensions have eased and as first-quarter earnings have been mostly better than expected. The index is now up 0.5% for 2025 but off its February record high.

Still, investors have become accustomed to Trump announcing steep tariffs, only to postpone them soon afterward. That has led to the acronym TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), coined by the Financial Times.

“It’s cute; it’s not a strategy,” said Pursche, referring to the acronym.

“However, from a purely American business perspective, there have been incremental gains achieved by the Trump administration on trade, and that shouldn’t be ignored.”

Boeing rose 3.3% after CEO Kelly Ortberg said the planemaker aims to increase production of its best-selling 737 MAX jets to 42 aircraft per month in the next few months and boost output to 47 a month in early 2026.

On the economic front, a second reading from the Commerce Department showed gross domestic product contracted 0.2% in the first quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.3% contraction.

In other earnings-related news, Best Buy shares fell 7.3% after the electronics retailer lowered its annual comparable sales and profit forecasts amid concerns that US tariffs would weigh on consumer demand for big-ticket items.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.26-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 114 new highs and 35 new lows on the NYSE.

On the Nasdaq, 2,673 stocks rose and 1,806 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.48-to-1 ratio.

Volume on US exchanges was 18.65 billion shares, compared with the 17.7 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch in New York; Additional reporting by Shashwat Chauhan and Kanchana Chakravarty in Benglauru; Editing by Pooja Desai, Maju Samuel, and Matthew Lewis)

Yields drop in choppy trading after court blow to Trump tariffs

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields fell on Thursday on soft economic data and on the back of a court ruling blocking most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which initially boosted risk sentiment in markets before reigniting fears over prolonged trade policy uncertainty.

A US trade court blocked most of Trump’s tariffs in a sweeping ruling on Wednesday that found the president overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from US trading partners. On Thursday afternoon, a U.S appeals court reinstated the tariffs during the appeal.

Treasury yields, which rise when prices fall, jumped overnight as US stock futures rallied, but the bond selloff lost steam in early trade on Thursday, with yields then turning lower after the release of weekly jobs data and first-quarter gross domestic product estimates that showed underlying weakness in the economy.

“Overnight, once you first got the news, equity markets took off, yields sold off, then I think there was a more nuanced reaction to it,” said Noel McElreath, senior portfolio manager for US fixed income at Xponance.

Economists largely expect tariffs to be a drag on economic growth and to increase price pressures, therefore potential relief from higher import duties would be less inflationary, which would be positive for the bond market. At the same time, lower tariffs than anticipated could reduce revenues, potentially intensifying concerns over the US fiscal health.

For the time being, after the Trump administration filed a notice of appeal and questioned the authority of the court, investors will have to contend with heightened uncertainty over the final shape of US trade policies.

“Is it really a coast clear? Trump never goes down without punching so I would imagine there’s going to be another few weeks of some chaotic headlines,” said John Luke Tyner, head of fixed income and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors.

On the economic front, data from the Labor Department on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, while the jobless rate appeared to have picked up in May as labor market conditions continue to ease.

A second reading from the Commerce Department showed gross domestic product contracted 0.2% in the first quarter, less than a 0.3% forecast by economists polled by Reuters, but consumer spending was weaker.

“The data is getting more dovish, even with GDP revised up a bit,” David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said in a note. “Consumer spending was weaker than expected … These numbers may increase odds of rate cuts sooner rather than later.”

The probability the Federal Reserve would cut rates by 25 basis points to a 4%-4.25% range at its September meeting increased to 53% on Thursday from 48% on Wednesday, CME Group data showed, with a total of two 25-bps cuts priced in for 2025.

Trump, in a private meeting at the White House on Thursday, told Fed Chair Jerome Powell that he was making a “mistake” by not lowering interest rates, delivering in person a view he has expressed publicly for months now. Powell at the meeting emphasized that monetary policy depends on economic data, the Fed said in a statement.

Meanwhile, without commenting directly on the tariff court ruling, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee on Thursday said that if big tariffs could be avoided, either through trade deals or otherwise, the US central bank could likely cut interest rates given the underlying strength of the economy and the direction of inflation.

Benchmark 10-year yields were last at 4.426%, about five basis points down on the day. Two-year yields fell by roughly the same amount to 3.941%.

On Thursday, the Treasury Department sold USD 44 billion seven-year notes in the last leg of this week’s Treasury auctions, which included two-year and five-year notes and met good demand.

The seven-year notes were sold with a high yield of 4.194%, over two basis points below the market at the time of bidding in a sign that investors were willing to pay up to secure them.

(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Will Dunham)

Dollar rallies after US court blocks Trump’s tariffs

SINGAPORE – The US dollar rallied sharply on Thursday after a court blocked President Donald Trump from imposing his so-called Liberation Day import tariffs, with the currency surging against the euro, yen and Swiss franc in particular.

The Manhattan-based Court of International Trade said the US Constitution gives Congress exclusive authority to regulate commerce with other countries that is not overridden by the president’s emergency powers to safeguard the US economy.

In response, the Trump administration filed an appeal.

The move sparked a risk-on rally across markets, sending Wall Street futures up while the dollar jumped in a knee-jerk reaction to a potential reprieve for global trade.

The greenback rose 0.6% against the yen to 145.72 and 0.65% against the franc to 0.8326.

The euro slid 0.5% to USD 1.1232. Sterling fell 0.2% to USD 1.3432.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six major peers, climbed back above 100 for the first time in a week and was last at 100.40.

“We’re just trying to work out what it might mean basically but obviously the market is doing a kneejerk reaction so I guess it’s reversing a lot of the moves that we’ve seen… All the direction of change has been opposite to what we have seen since Liberation Day,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank.

Trump’s tariffs have undermined investor confidence in US assets and prompted a rush of money out of the world’s largest economy.

That has in turn toppled the dollar, which is down nearly 8% for the year so far.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was little changed at USD 0.6428. The New Zealand dollar fell 0.13% to USD 0.59595.

(Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Stella Qiu; Editing by Christopher Cushing)

Stocks rally in Asia as Trump tariffs hit court hurdle

SYDNEY – Asian shares and Wall Street futures climbed in Asia on Thursday after a US federal court blocked President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs from going into effect, sending the dollar up on safe haven currencies.

The Manhattan-based Court of International Trade ruled that Trump overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from nations that sell more to the United States than they buy.

The White House quickly appealed the decision, and could take it all the way to the Supreme Court if needed, but in the meantime it offered some hope that Trump might back away from the highest tariff levels he had threatened.

“We’re just trying to work out what it might mean basically but obviously the market is doing a knee-jerk reaction,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB.

“So this may be an absolute storm in a teacup or potentially something more significant.”

Investors reacted by embracing risk assets and Japan’s Nikkei quickly rose 1%, while South Korea’s shares added 0.8%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up, awaiting the opening of Chinese markets.

S&P 500 futures climbed 1.5%, while Nasdaq futures rose 1.8%. The latter had already been lifted by relief over earnings from Nvidia, which beat sales estimates.

The chipmaker and AI darling also projected strong revenues for the current quarter, sending its shares up 4.4% after hours.

That news helped offset a Financial Times report that the White House had ordered US firms that offer software used to design semiconductors to stop selling their services to Chinese groups.

The New York Times separately reported the United States had suspended some sales to China of critical US technologies, including those related to jet engines, semiconductors and certain chemicals.

PUSHING OUT RATE CUTS

The news of the court decision hit traditional safe havens, lifting the dollar 0.8% on the Swiss franc to 0.336. It gained 0.6% on the Japanese yen to 145.76 yen, while the euro dipped 0.5% to USD 1.1230.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose 3 basis points to 4.51% and markets further shaved the chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut anytime soon.

Minutes of the last Fed meeting showed “almost all participants commented on the risk that inflation could prove to be more persistent than expected” due to Trump’s tariffs.

A rate cut in July is now seen as just a 22% chance, while September has come into around 60% having been more than fully priced a month ago.

In commodity markets, gold slipped 0.9% to USD 3,259 an ounce.

Oil prices extended a rally begun on supply concerns as OPEC+ agreed to leave their output policy unchanged and as the US barred Chevron from exporting Venezuelan crude.

US crude firmed 47 cents to USD 62.31 per barrel.

(Additional reporting by Stella Qiu in Sydney; Editing by Sam Holmes)

US yields rise after three-day fall; five-year auction shows solid demand

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields advanced on Wednesday, after falling for three straight days, as investors consolidated their positions on a day when there was little economic data to drive the market, but they pared their rise after a successful auction of five-year notes.

The sale of USD 70 billion in US five-year Treasuries showed healthy foreign demand, easing worries about investors potentially shifting from dollar assets due to fiscal sustainability concerns and recent tariff-related volatility.

So-called “indirect bidders,” which include foreign central banks, took 78.4% of the auction. “It looks to be a record high for this group and therefore suggests strong foreign interest in this paper,” said Lou Brien, market strategist for DRW Trading in Chicago, in emailed comments after the auction.

The sale cleared at 4.071%, lower than the expected rate at the bid deadline, suggesting there was no need to add a premium to the yield as investor appetite for the note was strong.

The bid-to-cover ratio, another measure of demand, was at 2.39 cover, down slightly from last month’s cover of 2.41, but in line with the 2.38 average.

“In my view, auction bidders are back regardless of tariffs or new policies going through the US Government,” wrote Tom di Galoma, managing director at Mischler Financial in an email after the five-year note sale.

Primary dealers, who usually step in when investor demand is weak, ended up with 9.2%, the second lowest on record, di Galoma said.

In afternoon trading, the yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note was up 4.3 basis points (bps), retreating after the auction from the 4.501% peak during the day. US 30-year yields were last up 3.1 bps at 4.970%, down from their 5% peak on Wednesday.

The minutes from the latest Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting, meanwhile, were seen as unsurprising and had little effect on the market. The minutes showed officials acknowledging they could face difficult tradeoffs in the coming months, in the form of rising inflation alongside rising unemployment.

“With inflation above target and a low unemployment rate, it’s not shocking that the Fed would think they can afford to wait for more clarity on the economic effects of tariffs,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.

Jacobsen believes the Fed will take its lead from the markets. “As long as inflation expectations stay contained, they’ll likely view any tariff-induced inflation as fleeting. If yields start rising and it is because inflation expectations are becoming unmoored, then they’ll squawk hawkishly.”

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was last up 4.3 bps at 3.992%.

Markets still hope for an interest rate cut in September, with a 58% chance, but the higher certainty, 79%, is for a reduction in the October Fed meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

STANDING REPO FACILITY

The Fed, meanwhile, announced on Wednesday that next month it will add morning offerings for its liquidity providing Standing Repo Facility, known as SRF, to the existing afternoon operations.

Launched in 2021, the facility helps the Fed keep the federal funds rate, its chief tool for influencing the course of the economy, in line with levels targeted by the Federal Open Market Committee.

“It is an attempt to make markets more resilient during times of stress by providing borrowers with an opportunity to tap the Fed facility earlier in the day,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities in New York. The SRF is currently not being used by banks, but in times of stress twice daily operations could help to backstop markets, he added.

On Thursday, the Treasury will again test demand for securities with a USD 44 billion offering of seven-year notes.

Among Fed officials speaking on Thursday are Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. A second estimate of the first-quarter GDP is expected to show the US economy contracted 0.3% in the period. Among other economic data points are weekly jobless claims and pending home sales in April.

(Reporting by Tatiana Bautzer; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss, Will Dunham, and Sonali Paul)

Indexes end down after chip designers ease late; Nvidia jumps after the bell

NEW YORK – US stock indexes closed lower on Wednesday as investors digested minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting and shares of chip designers fell in late trading.

After the closing bell, shares of Nvidia rose 5% as the artificial intelligence leader reported
quarterly sales that beat analyst expectations. However, the chipmaker forecast second-quarter revenue below estimates.

Nvidia shares had ended the regular session down 0.5%.

Late in regular trading, shares of Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys dropped after the Financial Times reported that President Donald Trump’s administration has ordered US firms that offer software used to design semiconductors to stop selling their services to Chinese groups. The FT report cited people familiar with the move.

Cadence ended down 10.7%.

According to the minutes of the Fed’s May 6-7 session, US central bank officials acknowledged they could face “difficult tradeoffs” in coming months in the form of rising inflation alongside rising unemployment.

“The Fed minutes really didn’t reveal anything new,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. “They basically indicate the Fed is in a wait-and-see mode and staying the line, trying to get more clarifications on trade.”

On Tuesday, stocks rose sharply after Trump backed down over the weekend from his threat of 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union.

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 244.95 points, or 0.58%, to 42,098.70, the S&P 500 lost 32.99 points, or 0.56%, to 5,888.55, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 98.23 points, or 0.51%, to 19,100.94.

Also rising after the bell were shares of Broadcom, up 3.2%, and Advanced Micro Devices, up 1.5%.

The S&P 500 is up 0.1% for the year to date but remains down from its record closing high, reached on February 19. It fell as much as 18.9% below that level in the wake of Trump’s erratic tariff announcements that have whipsawed markets for much of his second term.

A poll of strategists and analysts conducted by Reuters showed that many market participants expected the benchmark index to finish the year near current levels.

Shares of sportswear retailer Dick’s Sporting Goods ended up 1.7% after its first-quarter results beat estimates.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 2.79-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 103 new highs and 34 new lows on the NYSE.

On the Nasdaq, 1,448 stocks rose and 2,960 fell as declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 2.04-to-1 ratio.

Volume on US exchanges was 15.60 billion shares, compared with the 17.7 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; additional reporting by Shashwat Chauhan and Kanchana Chakravarty in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja Desai and David Gregorio)

Trump’s tariff reprieve pushes gold down for second straight session

Gold prices declined for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, as risk sentiment improved following US President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone tariffs on the European Union.

Spot gold fell 1.2% to USD 3,302.10 an ounce by 02:03 p.m. ET (1802 GMT) after rising nearly 5% last week.

US gold futures settled 1.9% lower at USD 3,300.40.

“There is a lot of volatility in gold prices as we keep having things change on the tariff front. Currently, the market may be under the impression that there is a deal to be had and that is pressuring gold,” Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities, said.

A weekend telephone call between Trump and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen gave “new impetus” to trade talks, the EU said, after Trump dropped his threat to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union next month.

The US dollar strengthened and stock index futures surged. A stronger dollar and rising risk sentiment weighed on gold, a dollar-denominated asset typically favored during periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari called for keeping interest rates steady until there is more clarity on how higher tariffs affect inflation.

The minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting are set to be released on Wednesday. Key US economic data scheduled for release this week include the first-quarter GDP estimate, weekly unemployment claims, and the core PCE price index.

“Our longer-term bullish view on gold has not changed. As soon as the market believes that the Fed is going to cut (rates), gold will start doing well,” Melek added.

Zero-yield bullion tends to do well in a low-interest rate environment.

Elsewhere, spot silver slipped 0.4% to USD 33.21 per ounce, platinum fell 0.1% to USD 1,084.02 and palladium dropped 1.2% to USD 975.49.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel and Vijay Kishore)

Oil prices ease as US-Iran talks, OPEC+ plans spur supply concerns

HOUSTON – Oil prices settled 1% lower on Tuesday as investors worried about a supply glut after Iranian and US delegations made progress in their talks and on expectations that OPEC+ will decide to increase output at a meeting this week.

Brent crude futures closed down 65 cents, or 1%, at USD 64.09 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 64 cents, or around 1.04%, to USD 60.89 a barrel.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, is not expected to change policy at a meeting on Wednesday.

However, another meeting on Saturday is likely to agree to a further accelerated oil output hike for July, three delegates from the group told Reuters.

Meanwhile, Iranian and US delegations wrapped up a fifth round of talks in Rome last week. While signs of limited progress emerged, there were many points of disagreement that were hard to breach, notably the issue of Iran’s uranium enrichment.

“OPEC+ also meets next week where they will likely agree on further output increases, which, if it occurs, will be a major near-term headwind for crude, especially if Iran adds barrels in the possible (US) deal,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.

If nuclear talks between the US and Iran fail, it could mean continued sanctions on Iran, which would limit Iranian oil supply, while any resolution could add Iranian supply to the market.

Also on the supply side, US crude oil stockpiles likely rose by about 500,000 barrels last week, a preliminary Reuters poll found on Tuesday.

Supporting prices, US President Donald Trump’s decision to extend trade talks with the European Union until July 9 alleviated immediate fears of tariffs that could suppress fuel demand. Wall Street rose on Trump’s trade reprieve.

Easing trade concerns were supportive, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, adding that upside to prices remains limited until it is clear what OPEC+ will decide on Saturday.

Also helping prices, a wildfire in the Canadian province of Alberta prompted the temporary shutdown of some oil and gas production.

(Reporting by Seher Dareen and Enes Tunagur in London, Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by Christian Schmollinger, Michael Perry, David Evans, Barbara Lewis, Rod Nickel, and Deepa Babington)

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