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Analysts have lowered their gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines this year, amid the US government’s flip-flopping trade policies.

In a recent report, Nomura Global Markets Research trimmed its GDP forecast to 5.9% for this year from 6% previously.

“Taking into account the impact of the US reciprocal tariffs, we now forecast a more moderate pickup in GDP growth to 5.9% year on year in 2025 from 5.6% in 2024,” Nomura analysts Euben Paracuelles and Nabila Amani said.

This would be a tad below the Development Budget Coordination Committee’s  6-8% target band for 2025.

First-quarter GDP data will be released on May 8.

Nomura said it revised its growth forecasts after US President Donald J. Trump announced the order to impose reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

Data from Nomura showed the scenarios by which countries in Asia could be affected by varying tariffs.

Under a “bad scenario” or if reciprocal tariffs proceed as planned, including the 125% tariff on China, the export value at risk for the Philippines is 0.5% of GDP.

In a “good scenario” or if only the baseline 10% tariffs are implemented, as well as China’s 125% duty, the Philippines’ export value at risk from tariffs is at 0.4% of GDP.

On April 9, Mr. Trump suspended the implementation of the higher reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. The 125% tariff on China as well as the baseline 10% rate is still in effect.

In a separate report, ANZ Research also slashed its growth forecast for the Philippines due to the potential impact from tariffs.

If reciprocal tariffs go ahead, ANZ said GDP could grow as slow as 5.2% this year, much lower than its current 5.7% forecast.

“We expect the April 2 tariffs would have a variable degree of impact across Asian economies,” it said.

ANZ said it will also likely revisit its forecasts once there is clearer guidance on the United States’ tariff orders.

“Risks to growth are still to the downside even if the final tariffs are retained at 10%. The rate will still be higher than implied by existing differences in bilateral tariffs,” it said.

“We do not think that Asian exporters can benefit from the 90-day window as US imports had already surged ahead of the April 2 tariff announcements. More importantly, Asian governments would not want to risk a further widening of trade surplus with the US in the event it hampers a constructive trade deal.”

On the other hand, Nomura said growth this year will be driven by public investment spending due to the “government’s strong push for more progress on infrastructure projects, with an added short-run impetus from the midterm elections.”

“This should continue to crowd in private investment, while inflation remains benign, boosting household purchasing power, alongside robust labor market conditions.”

‘Downside surprises’

Meanwhile, Nomura also lowered its Philippine inflation forecast to 2.2% this year from 2.7% earlier.

These forecasts take into account “downside surprises,” Nomura said, citing the sharply slower inflation in March to 1.8%.

“The output gap remains negative, and the impact of lower rice import tariffs on food inflation, in addition to more supply-side measures from the government, should keep inflation in check,” it added.

ANZ expects inflation to settle at 2.9% this year accounting for tariff impacts. Without tariffs, inflation could average 3.4%.

“Unlike the likely inflation dynamics in the US, we think that disinflation will intensify in all economies,” it said.

“The stipulated tariffs represent a material demand shock that will lead to a loss of corporate pricing power and wage growth. Furthermore, cheaper imports from mainland China will accentuate downward pressure on prices.”

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expects inflation to settle at 2.3% this year and 3.3% in 2026. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

The national government’s (NG) debt service slumped year on year in February as amortization payments declined, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) said.

Latest data from the BTr showed payments made by the NG for its debt plunged by 82.24% to PHP 52.15 billion in February from PHP 293.62 billion in the same month last year.

Month on month, debt service slid by 51.03% from PHP 106.51 billion in January.

Debt service refers to payments made by the NG on its domestic and foreign debt.

In February, interest payments accounted for the bulk or 92.89% of total debt service, while the rest went to amortization.

The government’s repayment of its loan principal or amortization declined by 98.49% to PHP 3.71 billion in February from PHP 245.79 billion a year ago.

This was mainly due to the 99.95% drop in amortization on domestic debt to PHP 121 million in February from PHP 243.63 billion in the same month in 2024.

External principal payments, on the other hand, increased by 65.88% to PHP 3.59 billion in February from PHP 2.16 billion in the same month last year.

On the other hand, interest payments inched up by 1.29% to PHP 48.45 billion in February from PHP 47.83 billion in the same month a year earlier.

Domestic interest payments fell by 22% to PHP 42.07 billion in February from PHP 34.35 billion a year ago. Broken down, PHP 20.74 billion went to interest payments for fixed-rate Treasury bonds, PHP 16.87 billion for retail Treasury bonds, and PHP 4.42 billion for Treasury bills.

Interest payments on external debt went down by 52.67% to PHP 6.38 billion in February from PHP 13.48 billion a year ago.

For the first two months of 2025, the government’s debt service declined by 64.94% to PHP 158.66 billion from PHP 452.51 billion in the same period last year.

Amortization payments for the January-to-February period plunged by 98.25% to PHP 5.78 billion from PHP 330.47 billion a year ago.

Principal payments on domestic debt slumped by 99.82% to PHP 438 million, while those for external debt declined by 93.83% to PHP 5.35 billion.

On the other hand, interest payments rose by 25.26% to PHP 152.88 billion as of end-February from PHP 122.05 billion in the same period a year ago.

Interest payments accounted for 96.35% of the total debt repayments in the first two months of 2025.

Interest payments on domestic debt jumped by 37.49% to PHP 114.35 billion, while external debt payments dipped 0.9% to PHP 38.53 billion.

“The debt service bill for February declined mainly due to lower obligations on Treasury bonds for the month,” Oikonomia Advisory and Research Inc. economist Reinielle Matt M. Erece said.

“One of the other factors that also contributed to the lower bill would be the peso appreciation experienced since February, which meant lower foreign payments.”

The peso closed at P57.995 against the greenback at end-February, appreciating by 37 centavos from its P58.365-per-dollar finish at end-January.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said there was a lower amount of maturing debt in February compared with a year ago.

Mr. Ricafort noted that lower interest rates also mitigated the rise in interest payments.

“Further cuts in Fed rates that could be matched locally could also help temper the increase in interest payments if there would be additional/new borrowings,” he added.

Mr. Ricafort noted the maturing government securities in April 2025 and from August-September 2025 “could lead to more borrowings to somewhat pay off or borrow again to replace the maturing debt.”

In the near term, Mr. Erece expects the debt service bill to stabilize.

“However, I expect higher debt servicing obligations in the long term as a result of higher borrowings this year,” he added.

The NG’s debt stock rose to a fresh high of P16.63 trillion as of end-February but the BTr said this level “remains manageable.” — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

The Philippine government is willing to negotiate with the United States to lower the 17% tariff imposed on Philippine-made goods, according to Frederick D. Go, special assistant to the president for investment and economic affairs.

This comes after US President Donald J. Trump on Wednesday paused the steep new tariffs imposed on most of its trading partners, including the Philippines, for 90 days. However, the blanket 10% duty on nearly all US imports will remain in effect. 

In a virtual Palace briefing, Mr. Go said he will head to Washington to discuss the tariff on Philippine goods with the US Trade Representative (USTR), but there is no definite date yet.

“This is not about appealing [the tariffs], but about negotiating,” Mr. Go said.

“The best possible outcome is a free trade agreement [between the Philippines and the US] — a free trade agreement means zero tariffs on their side and zero tariffs on our side —that’s probably the best possible outcome of that meeting, but again it’s open communication, dialogue, cooperation and let’s see what we can negotiate,” he added.

Citing the National Economic and Development Authority, Mr. Go estimated the 17% tariffs on Philippine goods will have a “small” 0.1% effect  on the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) over the next two years.

“First of all, what we can clearly see in the reciprocal tariffs imposed by America on the world is that the Philippines has a slight advantage,” he added.

He noted the Philippines has the second-lowest tariffs in the Southeast Asian region, with 17%, compared with other nations that reached as high as 54%. Singapore received the lowest tariff rate at 10%.

Despite this, Mr. Go recognized that any additional tariffs would still impact certain industries in the country.

“We also have to consider that this involves only one export sector of the country, and businesses are generally quite resilient — if one market closes, they look for another market to open. So, the estimate is a 0.1% effect on our GDP,” he added.

Meanwhile, Mr. Go said the government is also eyeing support for exporters that will be affected by the new US tariffs.

“First (we will) engage with our exporters to discuss with them what the possible measures are that they can take, and that the government can assist them in this current situation,” he said.

Mr. Go also underscored the need to monitor how neighboring countries are responding to the tariffs and how Washington will react to requests from its trading partners.

While each Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member-country may have its own position, he noted the need for vigilance and adaptability.

“[For the Philippines], we’re in a semi-good place, but of course we cannot be complacent; we need to keep monitoring what the other countries do, and for ourselves we need to negotiate an agreement that is beneficial for our country and for the businesses and enterprises in our country,” Mr. Go said.

Leonardo A. Lanzona, an economics professor at the Ateneo de Manila University, said the impact of the higher US tariffs will probably be more than merely 0.1% of Philippine GDP.

“While tariffs per se may have little impact on the Philippines, the depression in the US associated with these tariffs will have a much heavier impact. Global production will decline as countries become more and more protectionist,” Mr. Lanzona said.

“The globalization we once knew will no longer be there… Hence, it is not true that the impact will only be 0.1% of the GDP. It is probably going to be more,” he added.

IBON Foundation Executive Director Jose Enrique “Sonny” A. Africa said it may be premature to say the US tariffs will have little effect on the economy.

“The ‘0.1%’ impact on GDP cannot have any basis in fact, because the facts are still unfolding, and hides this with its dubious one-decimal place precision,” he told BusinessWorld in a Viber chat.

Mr. Africa said the Philippine government must also consider the eventual impact of a US slowdown on remittances as well as second-round effects on inflation, interest rates and supply chains. – Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter

Moody’s analytics trimmed its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the Philippines amid “weaker growth prospects” due to the impact of the US reciprocal tariffs.

“The US dealt the Philippines a harder blow than we expected, declaring a 17% tariff, so we have trimmed our GDP growth forecast to 5.8% from 5.9% in our March baseline,” it said in a report.

“Again, we’ll have to wait and see whether the diluted 10% tariff will last long term or revert to 17%.”

Moody’s Analytics’ forecast is below the government’s 6-8% target this year.

A chart from Moody’s Analytics showed the Philippines’ 17% tariff could have a direct hit of -0.4% on GDP.

“Although US President Donald J. Trump has just declared a 90-day freeze on most of the harsh tariffs announced a week ago and applied a 10% blanket tariff in their place, the April baseline represents the economic toll they’ll have should they eventually go ahead in full.”

“Even if a 10% tariff on most trading partners becomes a permanent US policy, many Asia-Pacific economies will suffer direct and indirect bruising as intraregional trade diminishes,” it added.

The tariffs are expected to weaken the country’s goods exports to the US, as it is the largest buyer of Philippine-made goods.

The Philippines’ top destination for exports is the United States, accounting for about 17% of the total in 2024.

“Further, slowing growth in China will hit service exports, especially in tourism-related sectors. Prior to the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic, Chinese tourists were the country’s largest group of visitors,” it added.

Moody’s Analytics flagged the uncertainties from countries’ tariff negotiations with the Trump administration.

“The big unknown is how negotiations might alter the extent and duration of tariffs in all directions and whether the US will extend its 90-day pause on tariffs for 75 countries.”

Mr. Trump’s tariffs have shown the steepest increases since the 1930s, it added.

“Uncertainty is palpable, with tumbling and volatile equity markets headlining financial market turbulence.”

“The negative and pervasive impact of a sustained rise in uncertainty cannot be understated. Household and business sentiment is crumbling, and if the calamity continues, monetary policy easing that was supposed to characterize 2025 will lose some of its potency.”

Consumers are also expected to spend less amid the economic uncertainty. Businesses are also seen to hold back on investments, it added.

The slew of tariffs also “increase the odds of a global recession,” Moody’s Analytics said.

“Under those tariffs, inflation across Asia would stay subdued amid weaker trade and growth dynamics. Inflation in the US, however, would rise as tariffs increased prices of producer and consumer goods.”

Meanwhile, Moody’s Analytics said Philippine inflation will likely remain within the 2-4% target band for the rest of the year.

It also expects the central bank to deliver another 25-basis-point (bp) rate cut in the second half, following its April policy decision.

‘Too early’

Meanwhile, Fitch Solutions unit BMI said the Philippine GDP may grow by 5.2% this year if the US implements a 17% tariff on the Philippines.

“Our preliminary estimates suggest that this will reduce output by around 1.1 percentage points (from its current projection of 6.3%), putting the government’s growth target of 6-7% at risk,” BMI said, noting that it is still premature to commit to any revisions to the forecast.

“With negotiations on the cards, it is too early to identify the extent of Trump’s tariffs on the Philippine economy.”

However, BMI said it expects the Philippines to “succeed” in negotiations with the Trump administration and secure a lower tariff rate.

“Regardless of what the final tariff rate will be, we expect lawmakers will resort to increasing public spending to cushion the economic fallout caused by Washington’s protectionist policies,” it said.

“The Philippines remains a vital security partner for the US, particularly as Washington aims to counter Beijing’s growing influence in the South China Sea. This strategic relationship should afford the Philippines some leverage in negotiations.”

BMI retained its forecast that the Philippines’ fiscal deficit will widen to 5.9% of GDP this year from 5.7% last year. This is higher than the 5.3% deficit ceiling set by the Development Budget Coordination Committee.

“If anything, the likelihood of the government having to incur a larger fiscal deficit has risen significantly against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical uncertainty,” it said.

BMI said the government may have to increase its spending to counter the economic impact of the US tariffs.

“Assuming a fiscal multiplier of 0.50 derived from academic research, the government will have to increase its expenditure by around 1.4 percentage points from 21.9% of GDP to reach the government’s lower bound target of 6% on our projections,” it said. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson with inputs from A.R.A. Inosante

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) trimmed its gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for the Philippines this year, though this still places it among the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia.

In its latest Asian Development Outlook (ADO), the multilateral lender lowered its growth forecast for the country to 6% this year from its 6.2% projection in December.

This would be faster than the 5.6% GDP growth in 2024. It would also hit the lower end of the Philippine government’s 6-8% growth target band for the year.

However, the ADB noted these forecasts do not yet consider US President Donald J. Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs went into effect on April 9.

ADB Senior Economics Officer Teresa B. Mendoza said the slight downgrade accounted for the “lower-than-expected turnout in the (fourth) quarter of 2024 because we have seen household spending growth moderated more than we expected.”

“This was also actually as an effect of the lingering impacts of high inflation for most of the year, although it trended lower in the second half after the fourth quarter, and also the lagged impacts of tight monetary policy,” she said at a briefing on Wednesday.

Philippine economic growth this year will be driven by “strengthening domestic demand and sustained public investment,” according to the report.

“Sound macroeconomic fundamentals and structural reforms support a sustained positive outlook, with growth projected at 6% this year and 6.1% in 2026,” Ms. Mendoza said.

In Southeast Asia, the Philippines is projected to be the third-fastest-growing economy this year, just behind Vietnam (6.6%) and Cambodia (6.1%).

It is ahead of Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.9%), Timor-Leste (4%), Lao PDR (3.9%), Thailand (2.8%), Singapore (2.6%), Brunei Darussalam (2.5%) and Myanmar (1.1%).

The Philippines’ growth forecast is also above the ADB’s projection for developing Asia, which is expected to grow 4.9% this year and 4.7% in 2026. The region includes 46 Asia-Pacific countries, but excludes Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

This year, household spending in the Philippines will be boosted by strong employment and remittances, the multilateral lender said.

The country’s private investment and business indicators have also been positive, it added.

“Modest inflation is projected at 3% over the forecast period, and monetary easing will support growth,” Ms. Mendoza said.

The ADB sees headline inflation averaging 3% in 2025 and in 2026. This is below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) baseline inflation forecast of 3.5% this year and next.

“While there are upside risks to inflation, including potential increases in electricity rates and transport fares, inflation is projected to remain within the 2% to 4% target through 2026,” the report said.

This outlook will also pave the way for continued monetary policy easing, it added.

“In terms of the monetary policy, what we are expecting that the BSP continue is seeing its monetary policy, but a much more gradual pace,” Ms. Mendoza said.

The BSP began its rate-cutting cycle in August last year, lowering borrowing costs by a total of 75 basis points (bps) to 5.75% by end-2024.

The central bank delivered a pause at its first policy review this year in February amid global trade uncertainties.

Markets are widely expecting the Monetary Board to resume its easing cycle with a 25-bp cut at its meeting today (April 10.).

“Further reforms to enhance the investment climate bode well. Public infrastructure investment, with its high multipliers, will continue to support growth,” the ADB added.

It cited reforms such as the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) Act.

Meanwhile, the ADB also noted that the National Government’s (NG) fiscal consolidation efforts are on track.

“Additional revenues and expenditure reforms are supporting fiscal consolidation,” it said.

Treasury data showed the NG’s budget deficit shrank by 0.38% or PHP 5.7 billion to PHP 1.506 trillion in 2024. However, it exceeded the PHP 1.48-trillion deficit ceiling set by the Development Budget Coordination Committee.

This year, the NG’s deficit ceiling is capped at PHP 1.54 trillion or 5.3% of GDP.

“Programs are also being undertaken to make spending more efficient. The new government procurement law enhances project implementation and procurement processes,” Ms. Mendoza added.

However, the multilateral lender sees the current account remaining in a deficit, “as imports rise to meet aggregate demand.”

“Capital-intensive imports for infrastructure projects will remain strong. Merchandise exports will likely be subdued, with prospects uneven for major external markets,” it added.

Latest data from the BSP showed the current account deficit widened by 41.4% to USD 17.5 billion in 2024. This marked the second-largest current account deficit on record.

Risks to growth

Meanwhile, the ADB cited several downside risks to its  growth outlook.

“This includes increased uncertainty over the external environment, including significant shifts in trade and investment policies, and increased protectionism and its adverse impacts on investor sentiment,” Ms. Mendoza said.

“Heightened geopolitical tensions were also highlighted, and weather shocks could drive commodity prices higher.”

The ADO released on Wednesday did not tackle the potential impacts of the sweeping US tariffs. ADB Chief Economist Albert F. Park said they will follow the evolution of the trade policies and update the forecasts in their next ADO to be released in July.

“The situation is still unfolding as we know, so it’s very soon to tell. In July, we’ll have a better idea,” ADB Philippines Principal Country Specialist Cristina Lozano said.

“But I want to make a point that the Philippines faces these US tariffs and the potential global slowdown from a position of relative strength. The macroeconomic fundamentals are very strong,” she added.

Ms. Mendoza noted the Philippine economy is mostly driven by domestic demand, not exports.

“We’re still monitoring the impacts because there are spillover effects across various channels.”

However, the country’s services sector, a key growth driver, will likely remain unaffected by tariffs, Ms. Lozano said.

“It’s a buffer to the economy. We don’t know what’s gonna happen, but for the moment, the Philippine economy is protected because most of the exports of the Philippines are in the semiconductor sector.”

The US exempted some commodities such as semiconductors from the reciprocal tariffs.

Electronics manufacturing services and semiconductor manufacturing services account for almost half or 44.5% of Philippine export sales to the US.

Abdul Abiad, director of ADB’s Macroeconomic Research Division, said there are many different policy options that countries can explore to mitigate the impact of these tariffs.

“Negotiations are obviously another important component in terms of policy response, but really most important, especially considering how integration has benefited this region the most, actually, in the world.”

“Doubling down on open trade and investment is going to be key and is really something within the control of economies in the region, and that will take many forms.”

This could be done by diversifying export markets and strengthening current free trade agreements, among others.

“I would expect to see, especially if these tariffs from the US persist, that you’ll see this reconfiguration that will actually strengthen intra-regional integration,” Mr. Abiad added.

Ms. Lozano said these tariffs could also “reinforce the case for regional integration, especially in Asian economies.” She noted the Philippines can take advantage of its membership in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, as well as pursue free trade deals with the European Union and other countries.

“I think this renewed commitment to regional trade agreements will support positive changes, and will gain momentum, given the situation.”

Pavit Ramachandran, ADB country director for the Philippines, said there is a need to continue domestic reforms, particularly on ease of doing business, investment, climate, and logistics and infrastructure.

The government can also focus on “increasing the sophistication of the economy” as a strategy, he said.

“For the Philippines, given that 60% of their exports are electronics, and this is relatively concentrated in a few markets, I think diversification is something that is worth pursuing.”

Within Southeast Asia, the Philippines can also reinforce engagement, Mr. Ramachandran said.

“There’s also a chance to move up the value chain in services. There is an opportunity to look at moving up to more financial services, healthcare, areas around IT, even in the BPO sector, for example.”

“There is an opportunity to also streamline tariffs. I think we’re already seeing that discussion happening in terms of a negotiation strategy. So, I think that work that’s already started in the Philippines will need to continue,” he added.

Trade Secretary Ma. Cristina A. Roque earlier said they are open to lowering tariffs on US goods in response to the US imposition of a 17% reciprocal tariff on Philippine goods. – Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Senior Reporter

The jobless rate slipped to a two-month low in February, as more Filipinos joined the labor force ahead of the summer season and midterm elections, the statistics agency said on Tuesday.

At the same time, the underemployment rate — an indicator of job quality — fell to a nine-month low of 10.1%.

Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority’s (PSA) Labor Force Survey (LFS) showed the jobless rate stood at 3.8%, easing from 4.3% in January.

Year on year, this was slightly higher than 3.5% a year ago.

This translated to 1.94 million jobless Filipinos in the second month of the year, lower than the 2.16 million seen in January 2025. Year on year, it was higher than the 1.8 million unemployed Filipinos seen in February 2024.

For the first two months of 2025, the jobless rate averaged 4%, same as a year ago.

“In February we’re already picking up an increase in employment, mainly due to political organizations hiring people, which is around 41,000. Most probably, this will continue until May, and that, in a way, creates seasonality,” PSA Undersecretary and National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa told a news briefing in mixed English and Filipino.

In February, the employment rate rose to 96.2%, equivalent to 49.15 million, from 95.7% in January which translated to 48.49 million employed Filipinos.

Year on year, it was slightly lower than 96.5% in February 2024, which was equivalent to 48.95 million Filipinos with jobs.

Mr. Mapa noted election-related employment is not substantial compared with “core areas” such as the service sector and wholesale and retail trade, particularly food and accommodation.

The campaign period for the May 12 elections began in February.

At the same time, job quality improved in February as the underemployment rate slipped to 10.1% from 12.4% in the same month a year ago and 13.3% in January.

The ranks of underemployed Filipinos — those who want longer work hours or an additional job — fell to 4.96 million from 6.08 million a year ago and 6.47 million in January.

For the two-month period, underemployment averaged 11.7%, falling from 13% a year ago.

“What is substantial here is the visible underemployed, those working less than 40 hours, and those sectors that have seen a significant increase,” Mr. Mapa said.

Underemployment declined in several sectors such as wholesale and retail trade, transportation and storage, other service activities, and manufacturing.

Bigger labor force

PSA data also showed 51.09 million Filipinos were part of the labor force in February, higher than the 50.65 million in January, and the 50.75 million in the same month last year.

The labor force participation rate (LFPR) — the proportion of the working-age population (15 years old and over) that is part of the total labor force — slipped to 64.5% in February from 64.8% a year ago. Month on month, the LFPR inched up from 63.9% in January.

“Notably, the country’s labor force participation increased by 345,000. The significant decline in participation among youth aged 15-24 reflects a growing trend of young individuals actively pursuing education, highlighting our National Government’s commitment to investing in the future of its youth,” Labor Secretary Bienvenido E. Laguesma told BusinessWorld in a Viber chat.

The youth LFPR slipped to 31.1% in February, down from 33.8% a year earlier and 31.8% in January 2025.

The youth employment rate stood at 89.6% in February, lower than the 91.4% posted a year ago.

In a separate statement, Mr. Laguesma said the February jobs data reflect the government’s “firm commitment as it maintains a positive outlook and encouraging trajectory for our labor market.”

The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said the Philippines’ unemployment rate “remains comparable” to Malaysia (3.1%) and Vietnam (2.2%), and lower than China (5.4%) and India (6.4%).

“We will build on our momentum and intensify our efforts to secure strategic job-generating investments, promote a dynamic and innovative business environment, and diversify growth drivers,” NEDA Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said in a statement.

“The continued rollout and implementation of high-impact infrastructure flagship projects, particularly in energy, transport, and digital connectivity, will boost domestic employment and business activity,” he added.

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said the strong labor market can help shield the Philippine economy from a looming trade war and global uncertainties.

“A strong and growing workforce means rising incomes, greater spending power, and sustained job creation. This fuels consumer demand and pushes our economy forward,” Mr. Recto said in a statement.

“We must continue to boost domestic demand, especially in these uncertain times marked by brewing trade wars. A strong and resilient domestic market is our best defense,” he added.

Federation of Free Workers President Jose Sonny G. Matula said the improvement in the labor market can be attributed to a combination of economic recovery efforts and government programs.

“Post-pandemic recovery momentum has led to increased consumer activity and business reopening, especially in services and hospitality,” he said in a Viber chat.

He also noted the administration’s “Build Better More” infrastructure program continues to generate construction-related jobs, as well as boost mobility and tourism in key provinces.

Government cash-for-work programs and localized employment initiatives may have also contributed to the uptick in employment, Mr. Matula added.

University of the Philippines Diliman School of Labor and Industrial Relations Assistant Professor Benjamin B. Velasco welcomed the improvement in jobs but noted that quality is more important.

“Better employment figures shown in the LFS are welcome. But better quantity of jobs does not imply better quality of jobs,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

By sector, services remained the top employer, accounting for 61.6% of total employed persons in February, followed by agriculture (20.1%) and industry (18.3%).

The accommodation and food service sector had the biggest annual employment gains in February, adding 377,000 jobs. This was followed by fishing and aquaculture (+365,000), public administration and defense (+330,000), construction (+258,000), and other service activities (+232,000).

Mr. Mapa noted there was an increase in employment in the accommodation and food service sector ahead of the summer season.

Month on month, wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles had the biggest jump in the number of employed persons at 620,000.

Mr. Mapa said the additional 620,000 were mostly employed in nonspecialized stores with food and beverages.

PSA data showed agriculture and forestry lost the most workers year on year, shedding almost 950,000 in February.

This  was followed by administrative and support service activities (-201,000) and transportation and storage (-158,000).

“Whenever there are job losses, whatever the sector, it is a cause for concern,” Mr. Laguesma said.

The labor chief noted that in 2024, the country was hit with several devastating typhoons and weather disturbances that affected agriculture and forestry.

“The country is calamity-prone which mainly contributes to our losses in the agriculture and fishery sectors. Hopefully, we don’t experience the same this year,” Mr. Laguesma said.

Month on month, agriculture and forestry lost the most workers (-520,000), followed by administrative and support service activities (-308,000), and transportation and storage (-176,000).

Mr. Laguesma said the government will continue its initiatives to boost employment, such as the upcoming Labor Day Job Fair.

The department is also bolstering its efforts to empower the youth through the JobStart Program, Special Program for Employment of Students, and Government Internship Program.

“To ensure this thrust, [we are] actively engaged in continuous capacity-building initiatives nationwide to strengthen the implementation of these youth employability programs through our Public Employment Service Offices and program implementers,” he added.

In a note, Chinabank Research said the Philippine labor market is expected to remain stable, but cited risks such as global uncertainties, higher US tariffs and a global slowdown.

“Looking ahead, the service sector will likely remain a key driver of job growth, supported by steady domestic demand. On the other hand, goods-producing sectors, especially those reliant on foreign demand, may face headwinds from higher tariffs from the Philippines’ biggest export market: the US. Nevertheless, opportunities remain through diversification and policy support,” Chinabank Research said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Balisacan said the government is set to launch the Trabaho Para sa Bayan Act Plan 2025-2034.

This includes programs to improve the competitiveness of the Filipino workforce, encourage innovation and promote technology adoption among enterprises, and enhance labor market governance.

For his part, Mr. Matula proposed a shift toward agro-industrialization as a long-term solution, especially in rural areas.

He noted the importance of investing in value-added industries within agriculture and fisheries — such as food processing, logistics, and export development — to generate more stable, higher-paying employment opportunities.

He also highlighted the need for stronger government support for micro, small, and medium enterprises. – Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter