Hawkish BSP seen to bring inflation to target in Q1

THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) hawkish stance is expected to bring inflation to the target range by early next year, but further hikes could be needed if more upside risks to prices emerge, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Wednesday.

However, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. told reporters on Wednesday that there is still a need to review the latest data before making a decision.

Asked if an off-cycle rate hike was still on the table, Mr. Remolona said: “We’re looking at the data, I think Tuesday we’ll gather and run through them all again and see what needs to be done. We’ll know next week.”

The Monetary Board has kept the benchmark interest rate at 6.25% since March after hiking borrowing costs by 425 basis points (bps) since May 2022 to tame inflation. Its next policy-setting meeting is on Nov. 16.

IMF Asia and Pacific Department Regional Studies Division Chief Shanaka Peiris said Philippine inflation is unlikely to ease to the BSP’s 2-4% target range within this year amid upside risks.

“The current restrictive monetary stance should help bring down inflation by the first quarter next year… What we said is keep the course on monetary policy tightening, and it should bring inflation down. But if upside risks materialize, (the BSP) may need to raise interest rates more,” he said in an online briefing on Wednesday.

The IMF expects Philippine inflation to accelerate to 6% this year before easing to 3.5% in 2024. The IMF’s forecast is slightly higher than the BSP’s 5.8% estimate for this year, but the same for next year.

Inflation quickened to 6.1% in September, the fastest in five months, due to rising prices of food and fuel. Year to date, inflation averaged 6.6%.

Mr. Remolona earlier this month said he is “not sure” if headline inflation will return to the 2-4% target range within the year due to the “significant spike” in September.

He has said that higher borrowing costs have not impacted the Philippine economic growth, which may indicate there is still room to resume monetary tightening.

The IMF expects Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 5.3% this year, and by 6% next year. Both forecasts are below the government’s 6-7% goal for 2023 and the 6.5-8% target for 2024.

“For next year, we are expecting a pickup because you know, service exports are doing quite well,” Mr. Peiris said, adding that an acceleration in public spending and an increase in foreign direct investments will also drive growth.

In its Regional Economic Outlook Asia Pacific report, the IMF said central banks in the region should carry through with policies to ensure inflation is “durably at appropriate targets.”

“However, with challenges from headwinds to the outlook and limited policy space, continued fiscal and financial policy normalization is essential to support disinflation, preserve financial stability, and rebuild fiscal buffers. In addition, structural reforms to mitigate the negative impact from pandemic scarring, global climate change, and geoeconomic fragmentation are urgently needed,” the multilateral lender said.

The IMF said it projects inflation in Asia to ease towards central bank targets in 2024, ahead of the rest of the world where inflation is not seen to return to target at least until 2025.

“Risks to inflation from food (particularly rice) and fuel prices remain tilted to the upside; core inflation itself is susceptible to food, fuel, and shipping cost shocks, especially in emerging markets and developing economies. There is also considerable uncertainty around lags of policy transmissions and the relative size of supply and demand shocks,” it added.

The IMF expects the Asia-Pacific region to grow by 4.6% this year from 3.9% in 2022. Asia’s growth is expected to slow to 4.2% in 2024 and to 3.9% in the medium term, which it said was the lowest in the past two decades except for 2020.

“The Asia and Pacific region thus remains a relatively bright spot compared to 3% expected global growth this year… The slowdown in China’s property sector will weigh on demand throughout the region,” the multilateral lender said. — AMCS

PHL seeks USD 5.7B worth of WB loans

THE PHILIPPINES is eyeing USD 5.677 billion worth of loans from the World Bank (WB) over the next few years, the Department of Finance (DoF) said.

In a statement, the DoF said Finance Secretary Benjamin E. Diokno met with World Bank Group (WBG) Managing Director for Operations Anna Bjerde to discuss the programs and projects being considered for financing from fiscal year 2024 to 2025 and onwards.

Mr. Diokno met with WBG officials on the sidelines of 2023 Annual World Bank-International Monetary Fund (WB-IMF) annual meetings in Marrakesh, Morocco.

“A total of 20 pipeline loans amounting to USD 5.677 billion are expected to be signed between the Philippines and the WBG,” the DoF said.

The USD 5.677 billion worth of loans will be focused on projects involved in “digital transformation, disaster risk management, climate, transportation, and energy, among others.”

Ms. Bjerde was quoted by the DoF as saying the World Bank is “finding ways to speed up the approval processes and execution of the projects, which is key to ensuring that countries benefit sooner and development objectives are delivered quicker and better.”

She also noted the multilateral lender’s interest in “exploring partnerships and private capital mobilization opportunities with the Philippines on digitalization and renewable energy.”

The Philippines currently has 18 ongoing loans with the lender worth USD 5.701 billion.

Last year, the World Bank was the country’s third-largest source of official development assistance (ODA), accounting for 21.18% of the total ODA portfolio. This was equivalent to USD 6.86 billion in 29 programs and projects.

Meanwhile, Mr. Diokno also met with representatives from Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), Mizuho Securities, and Nomura Holdings on Oct. 14 to discuss investment opportunities in the Philippines.

“The banks expressed strong interest in advancing investments in the Philippines’ renewable energy, sustainable technology, infrastructure, and fixed-income instruments,” the DoF said.

The DoF said the Japanese financial institutions also discussed opportunities in public-private partnerships, infrastructure flagship projects, and sustainable finance instruments. — L.M.J.C. Jocson

Yields on term deposits inch up

YIELDS on the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) term deposits climbed on Wednesday amid hawkish expectations from monetary authorities at home and abroad.

Demand for the BSP’s term deposit facility (TDF) stood at PHP 393.161 billion on Wednesday, higher than the PHP 380-billion offer as well as the PHP 375.538 billion in tenders seen a week earlier for a PHP 400-billion offering.

Broken down, tenders for the seven-day papers amounted to PHP 236.753 billion, higher than the PHP 220 billion auctioned off by the BSP. It was also PHP 17.874 billion above the PHP 218.879 billion in tenders seen last week.

Accepted rates for the tenor ranged from 6.41% to 6.455%, narrower than the 6.4% to 6.465% band logged last week. The average rate of the one-week deposits inched up by 0.45 basis points (bp) to 6.4357% from 6.4312% previously.

Meanwhile, demand for the 16-day deposits amounted to PHP 156.408 billion, below the PHP 160 billion on the auction block and the PHP 156.659 billion in tenders seen in the previous week for a PHP 180-billion offer of 14-day deposits.

The tenor offered this week was adjusted due to holidays in the beginning of November.

Banks asked for yields from 6.4% to 6.48%, slightly wider than the 6.4% to 6.478% range seen the previous week. This caused the average rate of the paper to inch up by 0.25 bp to 6.4483% from the 6.4458% seen on Oct. 11.

The BSP has not auctioned off 28-day term deposits for three years to give way to its weekly offerings of securities with the same tenor.

The term deposits and the 28-day bills are used by the central bank to mop up excess liquidity in the financial system and to better guide market rates.

TDF yields were higher week on week due to hawkish signals from the BSP chief and the possibility of a 25-bp hike from the US Federal Reserve, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

The central bank is open to raising its policy rate by 25 bps during their meeting next month after inflation picked up for a second month in a row in September, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said last week.

Mr. Remolona said he “would not rule out” a 25-bp increase at the Monetary Board’s Nov. 16 meeting, adding there is still room for monetary tightening as the economy remains strong.

The Monetary Board has kept the policy rate at a near 16-year high of 6.25% at its last four meetings. It raised borrowing costs by 425 bps from May 2022 to March 2023 to help bring down inflation.

Headline inflation quickened for a second straight month to 6.1% in September from 5.3% in August. This brought the nine-month inflation average to 6.6%, still higher than the BSP’s 5.8% forecast and 2-4% target for the year.

Meanwhile, the Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged at the 5.25% to 5.5% range at its Sept. 19-20 meeting. It has hiked rates by a cumulative 525 bps since it began its tightening cycle in March last year.

The Federal Open Market Committee will hold its next policy review from Oct. 31 to Nov. 1.

Global yields have climbed amid the war between Israel and Palestine, Mr. Ricafort added.

A jump in bond yields after a barnstorming report on September US retail sales sent analysts scurrying to revise up forecasts for economic growth for both the third and fourth quarters, Reuters reported.

Markets reacted by pricing in more risk the Federal Reserve will be forced to hike again. A move in November is still seen as just an 11% chance, but January climbed to 50% from 37%.

The market also again scaled back expectations for early rate cuts, with no chance of a move until June and around 54 basis points of easing implied for all of 2024.

Bonds took it badly, with two-year yields surging as much as 14 basis points on Tuesday to a 16-year peak of 5.24%. The two-year was last at 5.2%, while 10-year yields were back near recent highs at 4.84%. — M.J.B. Poliarco with Reuters

Peso climbs further vs dollar on strong China GDP growth

THE PESO appreciated further against the dollar due to easing concerns over a global economic slowdown after a stronger-than-expected Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) report.

The local currency closed at PHP 56.70 versus the dollar on Wednesday, strengthening by 4.6 centavos from Tuesday’s PHP 56.746 finish, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines’ website showed.

The local unit opened Wednesday’s session at PHP 56.72 per dollar. Its intraday best was at PHP 56.68, while its weakest showing was at PHP 56.775 against the greenback.

Dollars traded went down to USD 877.55 million on Wednesday from USD 1.109 billion on Tuesday.

“The peso appreciated as the stronger-than-expected Chinese economic growth report eased concerns of a near-term global slowdown,” a trader said in an e-mail.

Market sentiment was boosted by stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data on GDP, retail sales, and industrial production, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort likewise said in a Viber message.

China’s GDP grew 4.9% year on year in the third quarter, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

For Thursday, the trader and Mr. Ricafort see the peso moving between PHP 56.60 and PHP 56.80 per dollar. — AMCS

PHL stocks inch lower as market stays cautious

PHILIPPINE SHARES inched lower on Wednesday as investors stayed on the sidelines amid an increase in US Treasury yields and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index went down by 12.63 points or 0.2% to close at 6,268.27 on Wednesday, while the broader all-shares index shed 5.98 points or 0.17% to end at 3,385.40.

“Stocks moved sideways as traders continued to stay on the sidelines. Sentiments were hampered by the rise in US benchmark yields overnight. Concurrently, ongoing tensions in the Middle East continued to hound market confidence,” AB Capital Securities, Inc. Vice-President Jovis L. Vistan said in a Viber message.

“Nevertheless, downside risks appear to be constrained, considering the attractiveness of market valuations when viewed through a historical lens,” Mr. Vistan added.

Shares went down as the investors remain concerned over the was in the Middle East, Philstocks Financial, Inc. Research Analyst Claire T. Alviar said in a Viber message.

“Investors were concerned about the escalating conflict’s impact on oil prices, potentially leading to an increase in domestic oil prices if global prices continue to climb. This situation is anticipated to be unfavorably received by investors, especially in light of our elevated inflation,” Ms. Alviar said.

“Philippine shares edged lower as investors analyze the latest bond yield movement and on corporate earnings stateside. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note hit its highest level since (October),” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan added in a Viber message.

Two-year US Treasury yields surged by as much as 14 basis points on Tuesday to a 16-year peak of 5.24%, Reuters reported. The two-year was last at 5.20%, while 10-year yields were back near recent highs at 4.84%.

Meanwhile, a huge explosion at a Gaza hospital killed hundreds of Palestinians, wrecking a diplomatic mission by US President Joseph Biden, who arrived in Israel on Wednesday but was snubbed by Arab leaders who called off an emergency summit.

Palestinian officials blamed an Israeli air strike for the huge blast and fireball that engulfed the Al-Ahli al-Arabi hospital.

Back home, the majority of sectoral indices dropped on Wednesday. Property fell by 20.60 points or 0.77% to 2,652.59; mining and oil decreased by 76.89 points or 0.7% to 10,853.49; holding firms declined by 31.85 points or 0.53% to 5,907.47; and services went down by 7.46 points or 0.48% to 1,541.10.

Meanwhile, industrials rose by 89.50 points or 1.01% to 8,916.02 and financials climbed by 1.94 points or 0.1% to 1,799.46.

Value turnover went down to PHP 5.12 billion on Wednesday with 1.12 billion shares changing hands from the PHP 5.69 billion with 1.25 billion issues seen on Tuesday.

Decliners outnumbered advancers, 92 versus 73, while 61 shares closed unchanged.

Net foreign selling stood at PHP 32.59 million on Wednesday versus the PHP 276.42 million in net buying recorded on Tuesday. — SJT with Reuters

Financial system’s resources jump 7% as of end-August

The total resources of the Philippine financial system further expanded at the end of August, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said.

Preliminary data from the BSP showed that resources of banks and nonbank financial institutions increased by 6.98% to P29.079 trillion in the eight-month period from a year earlier.

The growth in total resources was also faster than 6.61% a month ago.

These resources are held by banks and nonbank financial institutions, including funds and assets such as deposits, capital, as well as bonds or debt securities.

Data from the BSP showed that banking resources rose by 7.94% to PHP 24.046 trillion at end-August from a year earlier. These include universal and commercial banks, thrift banks, as well as rural and cooperative banks.

The total banking resources held by universal and commercial banks increased by 7.8% to PHP 22.593 trillion as of end-August from PHP 20.958 trillion a year ago.

Thrift banks’ resources went up by 11.98% year on year to PHP 1.056 trillion, while rural and cooperative banks’ resources rose by 5.87% to PHP 397 billion.

Meanwhile, resources of nonbanking financial institutions inched up by 2.59% to PHP 5.033 trillion from PHP 4.906 trillion a year ago.

Nonbank institutions include investment houses, finance companies, security dealers, pawnshops and lending companies. Institutions such as nonstock savings and loan associations, credit card companies, private insurance firms, the Social Security System and Government Service Insurance System are also considered nonbanks.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the growth in financial resources was due to the “continued profitability of banks and other financial institutions, leading to more capital, more funds for lending that supported further loan growth, and other investment activities.”

“This also reflects the continued growth in banks’ loans and deposits as the economy reopened further towards greater normalcy. Capital-raising activities also supported further growth and expansion of loans, investments, and overall resources,” he added.

Last year, the financial system’s total resources stood at P28.806 trillion, up by 9.3% from a year ago. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

Cryptocurrency traders form group to address scams and promote investor education

Top cryptocurrency traders in the Philippines have created an association that will address scams and boost financial literacy amid increasing crypto adoption in the country.

In a statement on Tuesday, the Innovative Movement of the Philippine Association of Crypto Traders (IMPACT) announced its formation as it sought to educate Filipinos on the evolving crypto landscape and to build an informed community against crypto-related scams.

The group claims that it is the first local crypto traders association.

IMPACT Executive Director and Founding Chair Arlone Abello said the group was created to help individuals navigate the complexities of the digital economy.

“IMPACT is formed to equip individuals with the knowledge and understanding of cryptocurrencies and their vast potential. We strive to be the leading authority in the Philippines, providing reliable and unbiased information on crypto trading, use cases, and emerging trends,” Mr. Abello said.

In September, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said that it was close to releasing a set of guidelines to regulate crypto trading to protect the investing public.

SEC Chairperson Emilio B. Aquino said the corporate regulator was scheduled to issue the crypto trading guidelines but had faced delays.

“We have to make sure all the necessary safeguards are there. But we are still working on that,” Mr. Aquino said.

Meanwhile, IMPACT is conducting its “Cryptalk: University Caravan” initiative that visits higher education institutions across the country to teach finance students about cryptocurrency, blockchain, and Web3. The initiative also promotes ethical behavior and responsible participation in the decentralized web and cryptocurrency ecosystem.

In line with this, the group partnered with the Junior Confederation of Finance Associations Philippines, which is the national umbrella organization of college students in finance and financial management.

IMPACT is scheduled to visit 11 more schools starting with De La Salle University on Nov. 14 under the initiative.

“Generation Z can get easily hyped when it comes to investing. They have so much risk appetite that they lose focus on the potential risk of losing their money altogether,” Mr. Abello said.

Aside from Mr. Abello, IMPACT’s other founding members are Bitskwela Chief Executive Officer Jiro Reyes, corporate lawyer Clarizel King, decentralized multi-chain order book exchange ZKEX.com community manager Steve Jimenez, blockchain tech investor Riki Dacanay, and stock and crypto market analyst Gilbert Lazaro.

“IMPACT is open to collaborations to create internships and job placement opportunities for aspiring students,” the group said. “Organizations and universities looking to partner with the group can send their inquiry to www.impactph.io.” — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

Gov’t fully awards reissued seven-year bonds

The government made a full award of the reissued Treasury bonds (T-bonds) it auctioned off on Tuesday as its average rate rose following an increase in US yields as consumer and producer inflation in the world’s largest economy picked up last month.

The Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) raised PHP 30 billion as planned via the reissued seven-year bonds it auctioned off on Tuesday as the offer was oversubscribed, with total bids reaching P46.058 billion.

The bonds, which have a remaining life of six years and nine months, were awarded at an average rate of 6.675%, with accepted yields ranging from 6.5% to 6.74%.

The average rate of the reissued bonds was 30.5 basis points (bps) higher than the 6.37% quoted for the papers when they were last offered on Sept. 12 and 30 bps above the 6.375% coupon for the series.

The average yield was also 13.2 bps above the 6.52% quoted for the five-year paper and 15.5 bps higher than 6.543% seen for the same bond series at the secondary market before Tuesday’s auction, based on PHP Bloomberg Valuation Service Reference Rates data provided by the Treasury.

“The Auction Committee fully awarded the reissued seven-year Treasury bonds at today’s auction. With a remaining term of six years and nine months, the reissued bond series 07-70 fetched an average rate of 6.675%,” the BTr said in a statement on Tuesday.

“The auction attracted PHP 46.1 billion in total tenders, 1.5 times the PHp 30-billion offer. With its decision, the Committee raised the full program of PHP 30 billion, bringing the total outstanding volume for the series to PHP 64.7 billion,” it added.

T-bond yields rose following an increase in US rates, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

“The higher awarded rates reflect the lingering impact of renewed inflation expectations following the uptick in US consumer and producer inflation reports last week,” a trader said in an e-mail.

On Thursday, a US Treasury auction sent bond yields higher while investors were already digesting data that showed consumer prices rose more than anticipated in September, Reuters reported.

The consumer price index rose 0.4% in September, keeping the annual rate at 3.7%, the same as in August, while economists polled by Reuters had forecast it would gain 0.3% on the month and 3.6% year on year.

Data on Wednesday had shown US producer prices increased more than expected in September amid higher costs for energy products and food.

US benchmark 10-year yields rose after the inflation data and climbed further to hit a session high after the auction.

On Tuesday, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields edged up to 4.6872%, following a more than 8-basis-point decline on Friday amid demand for the safety of bonds.

Hawkish signals from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) continued to push local yields up, Mr. Ricafort added.

Mr. Remolona said he “would not rule out” a 25-bp increase at the Monetary Board’s Nov. 16 meeting, adding there is still room for monetary tightening as the economy remains strong.

The Monetary Board has kept the policy rate at a near 16-year high of 6.25% at its last four meetings. It raised borrowing costs by 425 bps from May 2022 to March 2023 to help bring down inflation.

The BTr wants to raise PHP 150 billion from the domestic market this month or PHP 60 billion via Treasury bills and P90 billion via T-bonds.

The government borrows from local and foreign sources to help fund its budget deficit, which is capped at 6.1% of gross domestic product this year. — AMCS with Reuters

BSP collects PHP114.9M via its coin deposit machines nationwide

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has collected PHP 114.9 million in coins less than four months after the launch of their coin deposit machines (CoDMs) nationwide.

The central bank collected 42.4 million coins worth PHP 114.9 million via the CoDMs as of Oct. 6 since they were rolled out in June, it said in a statement on Tuesday.

“We would like to thank our participating retailers and coin savers, especially those who have been promoting the usage of CoDMs on social media, for being instrumental in the program’s continued popularity and success,” BSP Deputy Governor Bernadette Romulo-Puyat said.

The coin deposit machines form part of the BSP’s efforts to improve the circulation of coins in the financial system.

“A case was made for a cash recycler program because we had about 36 billion coins in circulation then, but there seemed to be an artificial shortage in some areas in the Philippines,” BSP Deputy Director Jann Ryan D. Jose said.

The central bank said there were 39.1 billion coins in circulation as of April for an average of around 358 coins per person, almost three times the 2005 average of 121 coins per individual.

“When coins are not recirculated and left idle, an artificial coin shortage can happen in certain regions. This increases the likelihood of businesses shortchanging their customers,” the BSP said.

The BSP has finished deploying its target of 25 coin deposit machine units in malls across Metro Manila and other nearby provinces.

The value of coins deposited in CoDMs may be credited to the depositor’s e-wallet account or converted into a shopping voucher for over-the-counter transactions. Customers depositing coins can credit the equivalent amount to their e-wallets.

All denominations of the BSP Coin Series and New Generation Currency Coins Series are accepted by the CoDM. Unfit and demonetized coins, foreign currency, and foreign objects are rejected by the machine and returned to the depositor. — M.J.B. Poliarco

Peso rises on easing market worries

The peso inched up against the dollar on Tuesday amid easing concerns over the war in the Middle East.

The local currency closed at PHP 56.746 versus the dollar on Tuesday, strengthening by 3.4 centavos from Monday’s PHP 56.78 finish, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines’ website showed.

The local unit opened Tuesday’s session stronger at PHP 56.70 per dollar. Its intraday best was at PHP 56.67, while its weakest showing was at PHP 56.78 against the greenback.

Dollars traded jumped to USD 1.109 billion on Tuesday from the USD 859.9 million on Monday.

“The peso strengthened amid easing market concerns over further escalation of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict,” a trader said in an e-mail.

Market sentiment improved after US President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. said he would go to Israel to help prevent the Israel-Hamas war from escalating, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

Mr. Biden will make a high stakes visit to Israel on Wednesday to show support for its war on Hamas, after Washington said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to let humanitarian aid reach besieged Gazans, Reuters reported.

Israel has vowed to annihilate the Hamas movement that controls Gaza after Hamas gunmen killed 1,300 people, mainly civilians, during a rampage through southern Israeli towns on Oct. 7, the deadliest single day in Israel’s 75-year history.

Israel has bombarded the Gaza Strip with airstrikes that have killed more than 2,800 Palestinians, a quarter of them children, and driven around half of the 2.3 million Gazans from their homes. It has imposed a total blockade on the enclave, blocking food, fuel and medical supplies, which are rapidly running out.

The peso strengthened due to dovish signals from a US Federal Reserve official, Mr. Ricafort added.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said on Monday the central bank should not create new pressure on the economy by increasing the cost of borrowing, Reuters reported.

The Fed kept its key rate unchanged at the 5.25% to 5.5% range at its meeting last month.

It has hiked rates by a cumulative 525 basis points since it began its tightening cycle in March last year.

The US central bank will meet from Oct. 31 to Nov. 1 to revisit its policy stance.

For Wednesday, the trader said the peso could strengthen further amid a likely softer US retail sales report.

The trader expects the peso to move between PHP 56.60 and PHP 56.85 per dollar on Wednesday, while Mr. Ricafort sees it ranging from PHP 56.65 to PHP 56.85. — A.M.C. Sy with Reuters

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