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Archives: Business World Article

Maharlika fund eyes 3rd investment with foreign-listed firm

Maharlika fund eyes 3rd investment with foreign-listed firm

The Maharlika Investment Corp. (MIC) is gearing up for its third investment which would involve a foreign-listed company with ties in the infrastructure sector, according to its top official.

“We’ve got one more [investment] that we’re going to be announcing soon. Quite a significant transaction as well because it involves a listed company. Not a Philippine-listed company, but a foreign-listed company,” MIC President and Chief Executive Officer Rafael D. Consing, Jr. said in an interview on The Big Story on One News on Tuesday.

Mr. Consing said that the investment could be an “infrastructure play,” but clarified it will not be involved in transportation.

Over the weekend, the MIC announced an agreement to establish a private equity fund aimed at raising up to USD 1 billion with Thailand’s Charoen Pokphand Group Co., Ltd. (CP Group).

“What we aim to do is to invest in modernization of agricultural production, modes of agricultural production, similarly expanding and accelerating digital transformation for these companies that we will be acquiring, and then third would be doing sustainable energy,” Mr. Consing said.

He said the investments with the CP Group will be all domestic.

“We are going to be steering this national development fund during its nascent stage,” he added.

Mr. Consing said the sovereign wealth fund is designed as a “collaborative vehicle of the government to be able to attract foreign direct investments.”

MIC has previously mentioned its interest in investing in energy, food security, healthcare, and resource development, particularly mining. However, the tobacco and weapons sectors are off-limits for the MIC.

Asked why it hasn’t invested in other Philippine listed firms; he said the MIC is acting like a private equity fund.

“We do get ourselves exposed to the public markets, provided it’s part of an overall M&A (mergers and acquisitions) transaction… We’ve got a twin mandate, that being able to have social impact and at the same time (generate) profits. And you don’t generate social impact when you invest in the stock market.”

However, Mr. Consing said the MIC is not closing its doors on listed firms and will be open provided this would be part of “an overall M&A deal.”

On Jan. 27, the MIC signed a deal to acquire a 20% stake in the listed Synergy Grid & Development Phils., Inc. to gain a “foothold” in the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines, the sole operator of the country’s power grid.

It marked the MIC’s first investment since President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. signed the law creating the country’s first sovereign wealth fund in July 2023.

Asked about MIC’s targeted returns, Mr. Consing said: “We’re aiming, obviously, to generate significant spread above the existing benchmarks that are out there, and those benchmarks are the 10-year or the 20-year ROP (Republic of the Philippines) bonds. But those are quite confidential.”

Mr. Consing said the MIC has also set up a single investment limit at 20% of its seed capital, as well as sectoral limits.

“And there’s an extra 10% of tactical capital that we can allocate,” he added. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

Philippines faces risks from Trump tariff threat

Philippines faces risks from Trump tariff threat

The Philippines is among the economies in Asia that may be at risk from spillover effects of US President Donald J. Trump’s plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on trade partners, analysts said.

Nomura Global Markets report noted that emerging Asian economies have higher tariff rates on US exports, “thus at risk of higher reciprocal tariffs.”

“Over 90% of the exports of India, the Philippines, Thailand and China (destined for the US) have higher relative tariff rates and are therefore most at risk of higher reciprocal tariffs,” Nomura Global Markets Research said in a report.

Data from Nomura showed that 100% of Philippine exports to the US could be subject to higher tariffs, representing 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Mr. Trump on Monday said he would announce plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on other countries over the next two days, Reuters reported.

Mr. Trump made the statement after signing two proclamations ending all exclusions on steel and aluminum tariffs first imposed during his first term and raising duties on both metals to 25%. 

Mr. Trump said he was also looking at tariffs on cars, semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals.

Reciprocal tariffs would mean the US will impose the same tariff rate on imports from other countries as other countries impose on US exports.

Leonardo A. Lanzona, an economics professor at the Ateneo de Manila University, said “tit-for-tat” policies can “trigger disruptions in the global supply chains, thereby resulting in higher prices for all traded goods and services.”

“Since China is a major supplier of intermediate goods and consumer products for the Philippines, any disruption or increase in prices due to tariffs or retaliatory policies could lead to higher production costs for Philippine businesses,” he said in an e-mail.

“This, in turn, may contribute to inflation or force companies to look for alternative (and possibly more expensive) suppliers,” he added.

China is usually the Philippines’ biggest source of imports, while the United States is the country’s top destination for exports.

“In addition, the United States is a key market for Philippine exports. If trade tensions between the US and China slow down the US economy or lead to broader global economic uncertainty, demand in the US could weaken,” Mr. Lanzona said.

“This would negatively affect Philippine exporters, especially in sectors like electronics, garments and agricultural products,” he added.

Nomura said it is unclear whether Mr. Trump would slap higher reciprocal tariffs per sector or across the board.

“If Trump takes a sectoral approach, then even countries with lower weighted average tariff rates could be subject to higher tariffs in specific sectors,” Nomura said.

“We expect Asian economies to step up their negotiations with Mr. Trump,” it added.

Nomura data showed the Philippines had a 3.3% weighted average effective tariff on US exports to the Philippines versus the 1.4% tariff rate on Philippine exports to the US.

The bulk of Philippine exports to the US are machinery and electronics, accounting for 67% of total exports.

Nomura noted that most developing Asian economies impose higher tariffs on agricultural products and transportation.

However, Philippine exports of agricultural and transport products to the US are much lower than its neighbors, accounting for 0.2% and 0.1% of gross domestic product (GDP), respectively.

Nomura noted sectors with higher relative tariff rates include plastic and rubber for the Philippines and footwear and miscellaneous manufacturing for Thailand.

It said Thailand is seen to be the “biggest loser” in Southeast Asia amid its high exposure to agriculture and transport.

“Thailand’s exports of agricultural products to the US comprise 0.8% of Thai GDP and transport products comprise another 0.5%.”

Meanwhile, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam are seen to be in the “middle of the pack,” while the least exposed economies in the region are Singapore and South Korea.

Mr. Lanzona said the government needs to adopt strategies to cushion the economy from shocks stemming from the tariff regime, such as negotiating trade agreements, providing support for affected industries or investing in domestic production.

“More importantly, by promoting products that can be produced locally, the country may lessen its reliance on imported inputs — particularly from nations like China — thereby reducing exposure to external trade disruptions,” he said.

“Strengthening domestic production can help create more robust, locally controlled supply chains that are less susceptible to international tariff disputes or global market fluctuations.”

FX pressures

Meanwhile, ANZ Research in a separate report flagged the impact of tariff policies on currencies in Asia.

“Barring any near-term relief rally in Asia’s local markets, the risk of trade tariffs will continue to hang over Asian economies,” it said.

“Market stress is visible in increased demand for FX (foreign exchange) hedges and safe-haven assets. Asia FX will remain the vulnerable link in an environment of rising trade tension and weakening domestic growth impulse,” it added.

ANZ said currencies are the “main transmission channel to watch” as currencies in the region are vulnerable to a China-US trade war.

“The resulting risk-off tone from increased trade tension would also be supportive of safe-haven demand for the US dollar. In our view, no Asia FX markets would be meaningfully spared in a US-China trade war,” it added.

The peso closed at PHP 57.845 against the dollar at end-2024, depreciating by PHP 2.475 or 4.28% from its end-2023 finish of PHP 55.37. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

Meralco power rates up in Feb.

Meralco power rates up in Feb.

Customers of Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) face higher bills as the power distributor is set to raise rates for February due to higher generation charge.

The overall rate will climb by P0.2834 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) to PHP 12.0262 per kWh in February from PHP 11.7428 per kWh in January, the company said in a statement on Tuesday.

This will translate to an upward adjustment of around PHP 57 in the total electricity bill of residential customers with a consumption of 200 kWh. Those consuming 300 kWh, 400 kWh and 500 kWh will have to pay an additional PHP 85, PHP 114 and PHP 144, respectively, this month.

Meralco attributed the increase in the overall electricity rate to the generation charge, which rose by P0.3845 per kWh due to higher costs from independent power producers (IPP) and power supply agreements (PSA).

IPP charges increased by PHP 0.8355 per kWh due to lower average plant dispatch, a weaker peso and higher liquefied natural gas terminal fees imposed by First Gas Sta. Rita and Sta. Lorenzo.

Charges from the PSAs also climbed by PHP 0.0837 per kWh.

Meralco said the peso depreciation affected 97% of IPP costs and 61% PSA costs that were dollar-denominated.

The local unit closed at PHP 58.365 a dollar on Jan. 31, weakening by 52 centavos from its PHP 57.845 finish on Dec. 27.

However, these higher costs were offset by the PHP 3.005-per-kWh drop in charges from the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM). The average and peak demand in the Luzon grid both declined, offsetting the impact of the increase in the average capacity on outage.

IPPs, PSAs and WESM accounted for 29%, 43% and 28%, respectively, of the power distributor’s total energy requirement for the period.

On other components, the transmission charge dipped by PHP 0.0013 per kWh as lower ancillary service charges mitigated the impact of the first of the three monthly collections for the recovery of costs of reserve market suppliers.

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) directed the recovery of the remaining 70% of the reserve market settlement fees incurred in March last year. It will be billed to customers over three months beginning this month.

Taxes and other pass-through charges rose by PHP 0.1289 per kWh, reflecting the impact of higher ERC-approved universal charge for missionary areas of PHP 0.0171 per kWh.

“This month’s rates also reflected a one-time downward rate adjustment of P0.2264 per kWh and another downward adjustment of PHP 0.0023 per kWh, both related to regulatory reset fee adjustments, also ordered by the ERC,” Meralco said

The company reiterated that pass-through charges for generation and transmission are paid to the power suppliers and the grid operator, respectively, while taxes, universal charges, and Feed-in Tariff Allowance are all remitted to the government.

Meralco’s distribution charge has not moved at PHP 0.0360 per kWh since August 2022.

Proposed refund

Meanwhile, the power distributor is proposing to refund about PHP 19 billion in compliance with the ERC order in December that declared July 2022-June 2025 as a lapsed period that is part of its regulatory reset process.

Meralco wants to implement the refund over 36 months equivalent to PHP 0.19 per kWh for residential customers.

“We filed it early this February and we’re ready to implement it as soon as the ERC approves it. The earliest that we might be able to implement it might be March or April, but we will wait for the ERC directive,” Lawrence S. Fernandez, Meralco vice-president and head of utility economics, said at a briefing.

The company earlier said there was “no completed rate reset” during the period which was supposedly under the fifth regulatory period.

The total proposed amount covers the difference between Meralco’s actual weighted average tariff and the last approved rate of PHP 1.35 per kWh for Meralco from July 2022 to December 2024.

The rate reset process is usually a “forward-looking” exercise that requires the regulated entity to submit forecasted expenditures and proposed projects for the ERC to review and adjust rates.

Meralco’s controlling stakeholder, Beacon Electric Asset Holdings, Inc., is partly owned by PLDT Inc. Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., has an interest in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. – Sheldeen Joy Talavera, Reporter

PSEi seen reaching 7,600 level this year

PSEi seen reaching 7,600 level this year

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) could reach 7,600 this year, driven by improving economic conditions and a positive market outlook, according to First Metro Securities Brokerage Corp.

The brokerage’s broader target range for the PSEi this year is 6,600 to 8,600, First Metro Securities said in an e-mail statement on Tuesday.

Factors that could drive market momentum include the possible reduction of stock transaction taxes, which could boost market liquidity, an upgraded credit outlook, and higher domestic consumption ahead of the midterm elections, First Metro Securities said.

“We believe the market is positioned for a turnaround,” First Metro Securities First Vice-President and Equity Research Division Head Reuben Mark A. Angeles said during the brokerage’s recent Trader’s Playbook 2025 online market briefing.

“With inflation easing, economic data improving, and monetary policy becoming more accommodative, the business cycle is shifting from a slowdown to early recovery,” he added.

On Tuesday, the PSEi fell by 0.81% or 49.37 points to 5,987.75. This was the PSEi’s lowest close in 14 months, since the 5,973.78 finish on Oct. 31, 2023.

The broader All Shares Index likewise declined by 0.28% or 10.24 points to 3,607.03.

The PSEi closed 2024 in negative territory as the main index dropped by 0.15% or 10.23 points to 6,528.79.

Year-on-year, the PSEi’s 2024 close was higher by 1.2% or 78.75 points from its 6,450.04 finish in 2023, marking the first time the bellwether index closed higher since 2019.

First Metro Securities said it sees emerging structural growth opportunities with the Luzon Economic Corridor, which positions Clark, Pampanga, as a future economic hub.

It added that investment themes for 2025 include early-cycle recovery, midterm election plays, greater artificial intelligence (AI) adoption, and companies positioned to benefit from AI-driven efficiency gains.

“Despite global uncertainties, First Metro Securities believes the Philippines remains resilient due to its domestically driven economy, ample reserves, and strong geopolitical ties with the US. While Trump’s policies introduce some risks, many of these concerns have already been priced into valuations,” it said.

Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, director of the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, said at the briefing that the country’s gross domestic product growth could reach 6% this year, supported by improving fundamentals.

However, he warned that sustained growth should come from “meaningful investments rather than short-term election-driven spending.”

“We want spending to have a lasting impact, creating jobs and strengthening industries rather than fueling temporary consumption,” he said.

Mr. Peña-Reyes added that the country’s inflation rate is expected to remain within the Philippine central bank’s 2-4% target range.

First Metro Securities offers equity brokerage services and solutions to individuals and corporations. It is backed by First Metro Investment Corp. and Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

FDI inflows fall 20% in November

FDI inflows fall 20% in November

Net inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the Philippines slumped in November, preliminary data from the central bank showed.

FDI net inflows fell by 19.8% to USD 901 million in November from USD 1.12 billion in the same month in 2023, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said on Monday.

Month on month, inflows slid by 11.8% from USD 1.02 billion in October.

Net Foreign Direct Investment

This was also the lowest FDI net inflow in two months or since the USD 368 million posted in September.

Net investments in debt instruments dropped by 17.9% to USD 791 million in November from USD 964 million in the same month in 2023.

These consisted mainly of intercompany borrowing or lending between foreign direct investors and their subsidiaries or affiliates in the Philippines, the central bank said.

“The remaining portion of net investments in debt instruments are investments made by nonresident subsidiaries/associates in their resident direct investors, i.e., reverse investment,” it added.

Meanwhile, net investments in equity capital other than the reinvestment of earnings plunged by 58.9% to USD 35 million in November from USD 85 million in the previous year.   

Equity capital placements fell by 37.8% year on year to USD 71 million. On the other hand, withdrawals rose by 24.3% to USD 36 million.

By source, the bulk of equity capital placements mostly came from Japan (49%), followed by the United States (24%) and Singapore (17%).

These were invested mainly in manufacturing (49%), real estate (25%), financial and insurance (9%), and administrative and support services (5%).

Central bank data showed investments in equity and investment fund shares slid by 31.2% to USD 110 million in November from USD 159 million in the same month in 2023.

“Nonresidents’ reinvestment of earnings remained broadly stable at USD 74 million,” it added.

11-month period

In the January-November period, FDI net inflows rose by 4.4% to USD 8.58 billion from USD 8.22 billion in the same period in 2023.

This accounted for 95.3% of the BSP’s full-year forecast of USD 9-billion FDI net inflows for 2024.

Investments in equity and investment fund shares jumped by 16.4% year on year to USD 2.6 billion from USD 2.2 billion in the same period in 2023.

Net foreign investments in equity capital climbed by 37.7% to USD 1.49 billion in the first 11 months from USD 1.08 billion in the year-ago period.

Placements increased by 23% to USD 1.98 billion, while withdrawals dipped by 7.1% to USD 493 million.

These placements mainly came from Japan (39%) and the United Kingdom (39%), followed by the United States (10%) and Singapore (5%).

Investments were mostly channeled into manufacturing (72%), real estate (12%) and wholesale and retail trade (4%) industries.

Meanwhile, net investments in debt instruments inched down by 0.1% to USD 5.98 billion. Reinvestment of earnings likewise slipped by 3.6% to USD 1.1 billion.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the decline in FDI flows could be attributed to uncertainties over US President Donald J. Trump’s protectionist policies.

“President Trump, who won the US elections on Nov. 5, encourages more investments and jobs in the US rather than outside the US that could reduce foreign investments globally,” he said.

Oikonomia Advisory & Research, Inc. economist Reinielle Matt Erece said foreign investors were hesitant in making decisions in November when Mr. Trump won the elections.

“His suggested protectionist policies caused investors to hold capital and reposition their investments as higher inflation expectations, higher interest rates, and potential trade wars may occur as a result of these economic policies,” he added.

Mr. Ricafort noted foreign investors were also on a “wait-and-see” mode as the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) Act was signed into law in November.

“But this would now make foreign investors more decisive on whether or not to locate in the country, going forward,” he added.

CREATE MORE expands fiscal incentives and lowers corporate income tax on certain foreign enterprises.

“The series of storms and floods caused some economic disruptions in some areas of the country and also partly disrupted some FDIs into the country,” Mr. Ricafort added.

The Philippines faced several typhoons in the fourth quarter, which resulted in billions of infrastructure and agriculture damage.

“Nevertheless, net FDI close to USD 1 billion is still decent and among pre-pandemic highs that could create more jobs and other business opportunities and also still contribute to further economic growth and development,” Mr. Ricafort said.

Further monetary policy easing would also lower financing costs and attract more investments, he added.

In 2024, the BSP reduced interest rates by a total of 75 basis points (bps). It delivered three straight 25-bp rate cuts each in August, October and December.

A BusinessWorld poll conducted last week showed that 19 out of 20 analysts expect the Monetary Board to cut rates by another 25 bps at its first meeting of the year on Feb. 13.

The central bank expects to end 2025 with a USD 10-billion net FDI inflow.

The BSP noted that its FDI data are distinct from the investment data of other government sources as it covers actual investment flows.

“By contrast, the approved foreign investments data that are published by the Philippine Statistics Authority, which are sourced from Investment Promotion Agencies, represent investment commitments, which may not necessarily be realized fully, in a given period.” — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

Farm dept. mulls price cap on pork

Farm dept. mulls price cap on pork

The Department of Agriculture (DA) is looking at imposing a maximum suggested retail price (MSRP) for pork as prices remain elevated amid reports of profiteering.

The price of pork is almost double the farmgate price, suggesting a potential abuse of prices in markets, Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. said at a Palace briefing, after discussing the issue with President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.

He cited a gap of about P100 between the farmgate prices of PHP 240 and PHP 250 per kilo and the market prices of PHP 380 to PHP 420 per kilo.

“We’re currently studying that and digging deep into the whole value chain of pork, and finding out whether or not there is profiteering,” Mr. Laurel said.

“If we have identified that there’s profiteering, then definitely we will be doing an MSRP also for pork.”

The DA has resorted to the MSRP scheme for imported rice in a bid to curb prices. The MSRP was set at P55 per kilo of imported rice with broken grain content of 5%, which will take effect nationwide starting Feb. 15.

Mr. Laurel said pork prices above P400 per kilo is “unreasonable.”

DA data last week showed that pork prices have risen to as much as PHP 480 per kilo. The price of pork belly ranges from PHP 380 to PHP 480 per kilo, while pork ham or kasim ranged from PHP 340 to PHP 420 per kilo.

“Farmgate price remains between P220 and P240 per kilo for the past weeks, which means retail prices should not exceed PHP 380 per kilo,” Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura Executive Director Jayson H. Cainglet said.

“Selling beyond PHP 400 per kilo is not reflective of the actual pork prices,” he said in a Viber message.

Former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar attributed the surge in pork prices to the spread of African Swine Fever (ASF), which has lowered supply.

“The government must step up efforts and vigorously put up biosafety measures to stem the spread of ASF,” he said in a Viber message.

As of Jan. 31, 15 provinces in nine regions have active ASF cases, according to the Bureau of Animal Industry.

“Where is the much-promoted vaccine against ASF as espoused by the DA and the private sector? If such a vaccine is really working, then why not a massive nationwide vaccination of pigs be done,” Mr. Dar added.

The government began the controlled rollout of Vietnam-made ASF vaccines in late August 2024, with a focus on hogs in Lobo, Batangas, one of the hotspots for the disease that has severely impacted the sector since 2019.

“The piggeries, both backyard and big one, have to elevate their biosafety interventions,” Mr. Dar said.

Mr. Dar said the DA should strengthen coordination with local government units (LGUs) to ensure that quarantine measures are properly followed. Leonardo A. Lanzona, who teaches economics at the Ateneo de Manila University, said higher pork prices indicate “further supply-side constraints” that are also faced by other food commodities such as rice and tomatoes.

“It therefore cannot be attributed to profiteering of individual traders but a systemic or aggregate failure in the country’s agricultural sector,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

Meanwhile, Mr. Laurel said Mr. Marcos was briefed on the food situation in the country during Monday’s meeting attended by representatives from the National Economic and Development Authority and the Department of Labor and Employment.

The meeting was held just days after the DA declared a national rice emergency for rice amid an “extraordinary” spike in the prices of the staple grain despite lower tariffs for imports.

Mr. Laurel said the agency is set to release National Food Authority rice buffer stock by next week, with over 50 LGUs expressing interest in purchasing the rice stocks.

Meanwhile, Mr. Laurel said the DA has already blacklisted 16 companies as it combats illegal trade practices. The companies, four of which were already charged for illegal trade practices, were involved in importation of vegetables and fish. — K.A.T. Atienza

Philippine motor vehicle production drops 7% in November

Philippine motor vehicle production drops 7% in November

Motor vehicle production in the Philippines declined in November, reflecting the wider downtrend in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region, according to the ASEAN Automotive Federation (AAF) report.

Data from the AAF showed Philippine motor vehicle output fell by 7.2% in November to 8,772 units from 9,455 units in the same month in 2023. This was the biggest decline since the 12.9% contraction in March.

The ASEAN region saw motor vehicle production drop by 15.2% to 318,575 cars in November.

Thailand had the biggest output in the region at 117,251, falling 28.2% year on year. This was followed by Indonesia, whose output slipped by 5% to 110,398 units and Malaysia with a 10.1% drop to 60,927.

Vietnam had the fourth-biggest production in November at 20,901 units, up 12.5% year on year, followed by the Philippines.

Myanmar manufactured 326 units in November, jumping 79.1% year on year.

For the January-to-November period, the Philippines saw motor vehicle production grow by 14.7% to 116,650 units from 101,707 in the same period in 2023.

In ASEAN, production declined by 12.7% to 3.47 million as of end-November from 3.98 million a year prior, as only the Philippines, Myanmar and Malaysia posted annual growth.

Vehicle production in Myanmar surged by 83.8% year on year to 2,515 units, while Malaysia’s output inched up by 2.4% to 725,173 units.

Despite a 20.2% contraction, Thailand remained the biggest manufacturer in the region at 1.36 million. Indonesia saw output plunge by 31.8% to 885,516, while Vietnam’s output shrank by 1% to 157,115.

Meanwhile, motorcycle and scooter production in the Philippines grew 4.3% in November to 112,216, from 107,564 units in the same month in 2023.

The Philippines was the third-biggest producer of motorcycles and scooters in the region, after Indonesia where production declined by 7.5% to 571,810 and Thailand where output fell by 16.8% to 148,142 units.

In the first 11 months, the growth in motorcycle and scooter production was the fastest in the Philippines at 8.6% to 1.25 million units from 1.15 million in the same period in 2023.

Indonesia remained the leader in the region with 6.45 million units, up by 1.7% year on year. This was followed by Thailand with 1.73 million units, down by 11.4%.

The region’s total motorcycle and scooter production slipped by 0.2% to 9.95 million in the January-to-November period.

Growing sales

In the first 11 months, motor vehicle sales in the Philippines grew 8.8% to 425,209 from 390,654 units a year prior.

This was the fourth fastest growth in the region, after Singapore (up 40.2% to 46,491), Myanmar (up 31.3% to 3,982) and Vietnam (17.2% to 308,544).

Sales in Malaysia inched up by 1.4% to 731,476 units.

Sales in Thailand plunged by 26.7% to 518,303, while sales in Indonesia fell by 14.7% to 784,791.

This brought the total region’s sales to 2.82 million in the January-to-November period, down 7.3% from 3.04 million in 2023.

Meanwhile, motorcycle sales in the Philippines grew 7.6% to 1.55 million in the 11-month period, the fastest growth in the region.

Following the Philippines was Malaysia, which saw a 2.2% increase in motorcycle sales to 517,461 from 506,083 a year prior.

Next are Indonesia and Singapore, which had a 2.1% and 2% increase in motorcycle sales in the first eleven months to 5.93 million and 11,176 units.

Thailand posted a 9.6% decline in motorcycle sales to 1.56 million in the January-November period.

ASEAN’s total motorcycle sales inched up by 0.8% to 9.57 million as of end-November. — J.I.D. Tabile

BSP to cut rates by 25 bps — poll

BSP to cut rates by 25 bps — poll

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is expected to cut rates for a fourth straight meeting on Thursday, analysts said, amid within-target inflation and weaker-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP).   

A BusinessWorld poll conducted last week showed that 19 out of 20 analysts expect the Monetary Board to reduce the target reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its policy review on Feb. 13.

If realized, this would bring the benchmark rate to 5.5% from the current 5.75%.

This would also mark the fourth straight meeting the BSP cut rates since it began its easing cycle in August.

In 2024, the central bank slashed borrowing costs by a total of 75 bps.

On the other hand, one analyst expects the central bank to keep interest rates steady at the meeting.

“We are expecting the BSP to cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 5.5% at its Monetary Board meeting,” Security Bank Corp. Vice-President and Research Division Head Angelo B. Taningco said.

Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco said monetary policy normalization is “far from over” amid elevated interest rates.

“I’m expecting the Monetary Board to cut further this week, by another 25 bps, especially with fourth-quarter GDP coming in softer than expectations and with inflation remaining firmly within the BSP’s target range,” he said.

Citi Economist for the Philippines Nalin Chutchotitham said the BSP is likely to deliver a 25-bp cut on Thursday after weaker-than-expected 2024 growth and a moderate inflation outlook.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier said a rate cut is still “on the table” for this week.

“The central bank might use the slower-than-expected growth last quarter as the primary justification for the cut, along with a stable inflation environment that allows the central bank to focus more on boosting the economy,” Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said.

Chinabank Research said price pressures have remained “generally mild and manageable.”

“Headline inflation staying stable at 2.9% in January, and core inflation even easing slightly, will be a key input to the Monetary Board,” Nomura Global Markets Research analyst Euben Paracuelles said.

Headline inflation remained steady at 2.9% in January, within the central bank’s 2-4% target band.

HSBC economist for ASEAN Aris D. Dacanay said inflation is “not so much of a concern” as the latest consumer price index outturn was well-within target.

Weak growth

Meanwhile, analysts noted that the latest economic output data could prompt further policy easing.

“Having attained its inflation objective in 2024 alongside a target-consistent inflation outlook this year, the BSP has room to trim its policy rate following another disappointing GDP growth estimate,” Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc., said.

Patrick M. Ella, economist at Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp. said that weak GDP is a “more pressing issue” for now so the BSP “needs to support growth from the monetary side.”

“The country’s subdued economic performance for both the fourth quarter and full-year 2024 likewise supports the case for less restrictive monetary policy to help meet the government’s 6-8% target for this year,” Chinabank said.

The Philippines’ GDP grew by a slower-than-anticipated 5.2% in the fourth quarter. This brought full-year 2024 growth to 5.6%, short of the government’s 6-6.5% target.

“Softer GDP data for the second straight quarter and the slowest in 1.5 years or since the second quarter of 2023 would further support local policy rate cuts,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said.

The BSP chief earlier said the country is growing at a “little bit below capacity.” If the output gap widens further, this would call for more easing, Mr. Remolona added.

“The BSP’s sustained rate action contributes to lower costs of funding and doing business while sowing the seeds for investment-driven growth that can help create jobs and incomes,” Mr. Asuncion said.

Mr. Dacanay said loosening monetary policy will “help raise demand for credit and support growth.”

“This is an important market signal to boost business activity and spending after the disappointing GDP growth report for the last quarter of 2024,” Oikonomia Advisory & Research, Inc. economist Reinielle Matt Erece said.

Peso

Meanwhile, the peso’s recent appreciation could also allow the BSP to continue on its easing cycle.

“The recent stability of the peso could also provide the BSP with more room to consider a rate cut,” Mr. Neri said.

“The currency has strengthened in recent trading sessions following the US government’s decision to postpone its tariffs against Canada and Mexico. While a rate cut could exert pressure on the peso, improving market sentiment may mitigate this.”

The peso closed at PHP 58.03 per dollar on Friday, strengthening by 15 centavos from its PHP 58.18 finish on Thursday. This was its strongest close in more than a month or since its PHP 57.91-per-dollar finish on Jan. 2.

Week on week, the peso likewise rose by 33.5 centavos from its PHP 58.365 finish on Jan. 31.

“Moreover, the BSP might be open also to a higher exchange rate as long as inflation remains within target. A weaker peso could also benefit the economy by boosting the purchasing power of exporters and OFW households,” Mr. Neri added.

Meanwhile, Mr. Dacanay said there is also room for the BSP to narrow its interest rate differential with the US Federal Reserve.

“Currently at 125 bps, history has shown us that the spread between the BSP and the upper-end range of the Fed rate can be as narrow as 100 bps before stoking financial jitters,” he said.

Reuters reported Federal Reserve officials on Friday said the US job market is solid and noted the lack of clarity over how President Donald J. Trump’s policies will affect economic growth and still-elevated inflation, underscoring their no-rush approach to interest rate cuts.

The Fed kept its policy rate steady last month, citing economic uncertainties.

“We think the BSP could still proceed with a 25-bp cut as the resulting interest rate differential, at 100 bps, remains at a comfortable level and would likely not risk a significant depreciation of the peso against the US dollar,” Chinabank Research added.

On the other hand, Moody’s Analytics economist Sarah Tan said the BSP could keep rates on hold on Thursday, noting it seems “too soon” to cut rates amid trade war jitters.

“The BSP will be prudent in monitoring global developments that could reinflate inflation and weaken the strength of the peso,” she added.

Cautious easing

Moving forward, analysts said the central bank will likely remain cautious and could deliver fewer than expected rate cuts this year.

“The BSP will likely maintain its cautious messaging, given persisting inflation risks and increased global uncertainties,” Chinabank Research said.

The central bank earlier warned that the risks to the inflation outlook remain tilted to the upside for this year and 2026.

“Across 2025, we expect monetary policy easing to continue but at a more moderate pace,” Ms. Tan said.

Mr. Remolona had signaled the possibility of cutting by a total of 50 bps this year, saying that 75 bps or 100 bps may be a bit “too much.”

“Although a rate cut remains on the table, we believe the extent of easing this year will be limited,” Mr. Neri said.

“The sizable current account deficit of the economy makes it more vulnerable to external shocks such as global trade tensions. A narrower interest rate differential could also drive portfolio outflows as investors seek higher returns elsewhere,” he added.

Mr. Neri expects a total of 50 bps worth of rate reductions this year.

“Front-loading Mr. Remolona’s preference for a 50-bp rate cut this year with the Fed on hold would be macro-appropriate although this would be at the price of a weaker peso,” Mr. Asuncion said.

On the other hand, Mr. Ella expects the central bank to deliver two rate cuts totaling 50 bps in the first half, keep rates steady in the third quarter before delivering another 25-bp cut in the fourth quarter. – Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter

Philippine dollar reserves slip to USD 103 B at end-January

Philippine dollar reserves slip to USD 103 B at end-January

The Philippines’ dollar reserves dipped in January, according to preliminary data by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

Data from the central bank showed gross international reserves (GIR) declined by 3% to USD 103.02 billion at the end of January from USD 106.26 billion at the end of December 2024.

Year on year, dollar reserves inched down by 0.2% from USD 103.27 billion.

“The month-on-month decrease in the GIR level reflected mainly the BSP’s net foreign exchange operations, and drawdown on the National Government’s (NG) deposits with the BSP to pay off its foreign currency debt obligations,” the BSP said.

As of end-January, the level of dollar reserves was enough to cover about 3.6 times the country’s short-term external debt based on residual maturity.

It was also equivalent to 7.3 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income.

“By convention, GIR is viewed to be adequate if it can finance at least three-months’ worth of the country’s imports of goods and payments of services and primary income,” the BSP said.

Ample foreign exchange buffers protect an economy from market volatility and ensure the country can pay its debts in the event of an economic downturn.

BSP data showed foreign currency deposits plunged by 46.3% to USD 733.5 million from USD 1.37 billion a month ago. It also fell by 36.9% from USD 1.16 billion in January last year.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the lower foreign exchange holdings was due to the peso volatility in the past months.

The peso closed at P58.365 versus the greenback at end-January, depreciating by 52 centavos from P57.845 at end-December.

“GIR as of end-January declined for the fourth straight month after some net payment of the National Government’s foreign debt maturities and other obligations denominated in US dollars or other foreign currencies,” Mr. Ricafort added.

Meanwhile, the central bank’s foreign investments dropped by 3.7% to USD 86.13 billion as of January from USD 89.48 billion in the previous month. Year on year, investments inched lower by 1.3% from USD 87.28 billion.

Net international reserves went down by 3% to USD 103 billion as of end-January from USD 106.2 billion as of end-December 2024.

Net international reserves are the difference between the BSP’s reserve assets or GIR and reserve liabilities, such as short-term foreign debt and credit and loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The country’s reserve position in the IMF declined to USD 671.3 million at end-January from USD 675.6 million in the prior month and from USD 753.9 million a year ago.

Special drawing rights — the amount the country can tap from the IMF — was unchanged at USD 3.73 billion for the second straight month.

On the other hand, reserves in the form of gold were valued at USD 11.75 billion. This was up by 6.8% from USD 11 billion as of end-December, and higher by 14% from USD 10.3 billion a year earlier.

For the coming months, Mr. Ricafort said dollar reserves could be supported by growth in overseas Filipino worker remittance, business process outsourcing revenues, exports and tourism revenues.

The government’s global bond offer in January could also be reflected in the February GIR level, he said.

In January, the NG raised USD 3.3 billion from its triple-tranche offering of US dollar and euro bonds. This was its first global bond issuance for the year.

The central bank expects the country’s GIR to hit USD 110 billion by end-2025. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

ADB eyes approval of loans for transport, infrastructure

ADB eyes approval of loans for transport, infrastructure

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is eyeing to approve loans related to the Philippine government’s transport, infrastructure and social sector projects as part of its lending program this year.

“I think there will be more programs further down. We continue to support the ‘Build Better More’ agenda of the government,” ADB Country Director for the Philippines Pavit Ramachandran told reporters on the sidelines of an event last week.

“These are continuing projects which we want to make sure are seen to completion and fruition,” he added.

Mr. Ramachandran said one of the loans lined up this year is another package for the North-South Commuter Railway.

“The North-South Commuter Railway is an important investment, something we are committed to support. That will be one of the projects. It’s an ongoing investment but the next tranche of investment has to be approved,” he said.

The North-South Commuter Railway is among the Marcos administration’s 16 flagship infrastructure projects.

The 147-kilometer railway will connect Clark Airport to Calamba, Laguna. The government is targeting its partial operation by the end of 2028. The project has a total funding of around PHP 873 billion and is co-financed by ADB and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). 

Mr. Ramachandran said the next tranche of financing for the railway would be a “sizable loan.”

“It will be upwards of a billion (dollars) because it’s the Malolos-Clark component of it. These are all contracted sections but it’s about making sure the financing is done.”

Meanwhile, the ADB is also aiming to provide funding for social development projects.

“We are also looking at some social sector projects including support for the food voucher program,” Mr. Ramachandran said.

The amount is yet to be finalized, but the financing for the food voucher program will likely range from USD 300 million to USD 400 million, he added.

In 2023, the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) launched the pilot of the food stamp program. Under the program, beneficiaries receive electronic transfer cards that are loaded with food credits. The DSWD scaled up the implementation of the program last year.

The multilateral lender also has investments planned for the health sector and infrastructure, Mr. Ramachandran added.

Meanwhile, Mr. Ramachandran said they are still finalizing the full lending program for 2025.

“We haven’t locked in the details of the lending program because we haven’t done what we call our programming mission,” he said.

“That will happen perhaps towards the end of March-April where we’ll sit down with the government and other stakeholders and discuss the details of individual projects, the total. At this stage, we don’t have the full scope of that fully laid out yet.”

The ADB earlier said it is allocating USD 24 billion in lending to the Philippines for 2024 to 2029. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

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