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THE GIST
NEWS AND FEATURES
Global Philippines Fine Living
INSIGHTS
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
WEBINARS
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
DOWNLOADS
Two people discussing a chart on a tablet
Economic Updates
Policy Rate Update: Dovish BSP Narrows IRD 
June 19, 2025 DOWNLOAD
grocery-2-aa
Economic Updates
Inflation Update: Prices rise even slower in May 
June 5, 2025 DOWNLOAD
Buildings in the Makati Central Business District
Economic Updates
Monthly Recap: BSP to outpace the Fed in rate cuts 
May 29, 2025 DOWNLOAD
View all Reports

Archives: Business World Article

Philippines eyes tariff talks with USTR

Philippines eyes tariff talks with USTR

The Philippine government is willing to negotiate with the United States to lower the 17% tariff imposed on Philippine-made goods, according to Frederick D. Go, special assistant to the president for investment and economic affairs.

This comes after US President Donald J. Trump on Wednesday paused the steep new tariffs imposed on most of its trading partners, including the Philippines, for 90 days. However, the blanket 10% duty on nearly all US imports will remain in effect. 

In a virtual Palace briefing, Mr. Go said he will head to Washington to discuss the tariff on Philippine goods with the US Trade Representative (USTR), but there is no definite date yet.

“This is not about appealing [the tariffs], but about negotiating,” Mr. Go said.

“The best possible outcome is a free trade agreement [between the Philippines and the US] — a free trade agreement means zero tariffs on their side and zero tariffs on our side —that’s probably the best possible outcome of that meeting, but again it’s open communication, dialogue, cooperation and let’s see what we can negotiate,” he added.

Citing the National Economic and Development Authority, Mr. Go estimated the 17% tariffs on Philippine goods will have a “small” 0.1% effect  on the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) over the next two years.

“First of all, what we can clearly see in the reciprocal tariffs imposed by America on the world is that the Philippines has a slight advantage,” he added.

He noted the Philippines has the second-lowest tariffs in the Southeast Asian region, with 17%, compared with other nations that reached as high as 54%. Singapore received the lowest tariff rate at 10%.

Despite this, Mr. Go recognized that any additional tariffs would still impact certain industries in the country.

“We also have to consider that this involves only one export sector of the country, and businesses are generally quite resilient — if one market closes, they look for another market to open. So, the estimate is a 0.1% effect on our GDP,” he added.

Meanwhile, Mr. Go said the government is also eyeing support for exporters that will be affected by the new US tariffs.

“First (we will) engage with our exporters to discuss with them what the possible measures are that they can take, and that the government can assist them in this current situation,” he said.

Mr. Go also underscored the need to monitor how neighboring countries are responding to the tariffs and how Washington will react to requests from its trading partners.

While each Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member-country may have its own position, he noted the need for vigilance and adaptability.

“[For the Philippines], we’re in a semi-good place, but of course we cannot be complacent; we need to keep monitoring what the other countries do, and for ourselves we need to negotiate an agreement that is beneficial for our country and for the businesses and enterprises in our country,” Mr. Go said.

Leonardo A. Lanzona, an economics professor at the Ateneo de Manila University, said the impact of the higher US tariffs will probably be more than merely 0.1% of Philippine GDP.

“While tariffs per se may have little impact on the Philippines, the depression in the US associated with these tariffs will have a much heavier impact. Global production will decline as countries become more and more protectionist,” Mr. Lanzona said.

“The globalization we once knew will no longer be there… Hence, it is not true that the impact will only be 0.1% of the GDP. It is probably going to be more,” he added.

IBON Foundation Executive Director Jose Enrique “Sonny” A. Africa said it may be premature to say the US tariffs will have little effect on the economy.

“The ‘0.1%’ impact on GDP cannot have any basis in fact, because the facts are still unfolding, and hides this with its dubious one-decimal place precision,” he told BusinessWorld in a Viber chat.

Mr. Africa said the Philippine government must also consider the eventual impact of a US slowdown on remittances as well as second-round effects on inflation, interest rates and supply chains. – Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter

Moody’s Analytics trims Philippine growth forecast on US tariffs

Moody’s Analytics trims Philippine growth forecast on US tariffs

Moody’s analytics trimmed its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the Philippines amid “weaker growth prospects” due to the impact of the US reciprocal tariffs.

“The US dealt the Philippines a harder blow than we expected, declaring a 17% tariff, so we have trimmed our GDP growth forecast to 5.8% from 5.9% in our March baseline,” it said in a report.

“Again, we’ll have to wait and see whether the diluted 10% tariff will last long term or revert to 17%.”

Moody’s Analytics’ forecast is below the government’s 6-8% target this year.

A chart from Moody’s Analytics showed the Philippines’ 17% tariff could have a direct hit of -0.4% on GDP.

“Although US President Donald J. Trump has just declared a 90-day freeze on most of the harsh tariffs announced a week ago and applied a 10% blanket tariff in their place, the April baseline represents the economic toll they’ll have should they eventually go ahead in full.”

“Even if a 10% tariff on most trading partners becomes a permanent US policy, many Asia-Pacific economies will suffer direct and indirect bruising as intraregional trade diminishes,” it added.

The tariffs are expected to weaken the country’s goods exports to the US, as it is the largest buyer of Philippine-made goods.

The Philippines’ top destination for exports is the United States, accounting for about 17% of the total in 2024.

“Further, slowing growth in China will hit service exports, especially in tourism-related sectors. Prior to the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic, Chinese tourists were the country’s largest group of visitors,” it added.

Moody’s Analytics flagged the uncertainties from countries’ tariff negotiations with the Trump administration.

“The big unknown is how negotiations might alter the extent and duration of tariffs in all directions and whether the US will extend its 90-day pause on tariffs for 75 countries.”

Mr. Trump’s tariffs have shown the steepest increases since the 1930s, it added.

“Uncertainty is palpable, with tumbling and volatile equity markets headlining financial market turbulence.”

“The negative and pervasive impact of a sustained rise in uncertainty cannot be understated. Household and business sentiment is crumbling, and if the calamity continues, monetary policy easing that was supposed to characterize 2025 will lose some of its potency.”

Consumers are also expected to spend less amid the economic uncertainty. Businesses are also seen to hold back on investments, it added.

The slew of tariffs also “increase the odds of a global recession,” Moody’s Analytics said.

“Under those tariffs, inflation across Asia would stay subdued amid weaker trade and growth dynamics. Inflation in the US, however, would rise as tariffs increased prices of producer and consumer goods.”

Meanwhile, Moody’s Analytics said Philippine inflation will likely remain within the 2-4% target band for the rest of the year.

It also expects the central bank to deliver another 25-basis-point (bp) rate cut in the second half, following its April policy decision.

‘Too early’

Meanwhile, Fitch Solutions unit BMI said the Philippine GDP may grow by 5.2% this year if the US implements a 17% tariff on the Philippines.

“Our preliminary estimates suggest that this will reduce output by around 1.1 percentage points (from its current projection of 6.3%), putting the government’s growth target of 6-7% at risk,” BMI said, noting that it is still premature to commit to any revisions to the forecast.

“With negotiations on the cards, it is too early to identify the extent of Trump’s tariffs on the Philippine economy.”

However, BMI said it expects the Philippines to “succeed” in negotiations with the Trump administration and secure a lower tariff rate.

“Regardless of what the final tariff rate will be, we expect lawmakers will resort to increasing public spending to cushion the economic fallout caused by Washington’s protectionist policies,” it said.

“The Philippines remains a vital security partner for the US, particularly as Washington aims to counter Beijing’s growing influence in the South China Sea. This strategic relationship should afford the Philippines some leverage in negotiations.”

BMI retained its forecast that the Philippines’ fiscal deficit will widen to 5.9% of GDP this year from 5.7% last year. This is higher than the 5.3% deficit ceiling set by the Development Budget Coordination Committee.

“If anything, the likelihood of the government having to incur a larger fiscal deficit has risen significantly against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical uncertainty,” it said.

BMI said the government may have to increase its spending to counter the economic impact of the US tariffs.

“Assuming a fiscal multiplier of 0.50 derived from academic research, the government will have to increase its expenditure by around 1.4 percentage points from 21.9% of GDP to reach the government’s lower bound target of 6% on our projections,” it said. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson with inputs from A.R.A. Inosante

Peso slips vs dollar as BSP resumes easing cycle

Peso slips vs dollar as BSP resumes easing cycle

The peso slipped against the dollar on Thursday as players took positions following the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) move to resume its easing cycle.

The local unit closed at PHP 57.35 per dollar on Thursday, weakening by four centavos from its PHP 57.31 finish on Tuesday, Bankers Association of the Philippines data showed.

The peso opened the session sharply stronger at PHP 57.18 against the dollar. Its worst showing was at PHP 57.355, while its intraday best was at PHP 57.14 versus the greenback.

Dollars exchanged went down to USD 1.48 billion on Thursday from USD 1.97 billion on Tuesday.

“The dollar-peso initially traded higher on improving risk sentiment after US President Donald J. Trump announced the 90-day tariff pause,” a trader said in a phone interview.

“However, it [dropped] on expectations that the BSP will cut rates, which it did, and after the BSP signaled further rate cuts for the rest of the meetings,” the trader added.

The peso’s rally lost steam as players positioned before the BSP’s announcement of its policy decision later in the session, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort likewise said in a Viber message.

The Monetary Board on Thursday cut benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to bring the policy rate to 5.5%, as expected by all 17 analysts in a BusinessWorld poll.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said expectations of easing inflation support the shift to a more accommodative monetary policy stance.

He added that the Monetary Board is considering further rate cuts but maintained that these will be delivered in “baby steps” of 25 bps at a time.

“For now, what we’re looking at is a few more cuts, but we have more meetings than the number of cuts we are thinking about,” Mr. Remolona said.

The Monetary Board has four meetings left this year, which are scheduled for June 19, Aug. 28, Oct. 9, and Dec. 11.

For Friday, the trader expects the peso to move between PHP 57.10 and PHP 57.50 per dollar, while Mr. Ricafort sees it ranging from PHP 57.25 to PHP 57.45. — Aaron Michael C. Sy

Stocks climb as Trump pauses reciprocal tariffs

Stocks climb as Trump pauses reciprocal tariffs

Philippine stocks climbed on Thursday as the United States suspended the implementation of most “reciprocal” tariffs it had imposed on its trading partners.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) rose by 1.19% or 71.48 points to close at 6,077.82, while the broader all shares index increased by 1.12% or 40.14 points to end at 3,622.94.

“The market closed higher on the back of a relief rally in reaction to President Donald J. Trump’s decision to temporarily pause most reciprocal tariffs, including those on the Philippines,” China Bank Capital Corp. Managing Director Juan Paolo E. Colet said in a Viber message.

“The benchmark index opened strongly in the morning, but some of those gains melted away over the trading session as investors took profits and trimmed positions to hedge against the escalating trade war between the US and China. Nonetheless, market optimism was partly sustained by traders placing bets that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) would cut its policy rate,” he added.

Mr. Trump said he would temporarily lower the hefty duties he had just imposed on dozens of countries while further ramping up pressure on China, sending global stocks rocketing higher, Reuters reported.

The turnabout on Wednesday came less than 24 hours after steep new tariffs kicked in on most trading partners.

A 10% blanket duty on almost all US imports will remain in effect, the White House said.

Meanwhile, the Monetary Board on Thursday cut benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points, the BSP announced at the stock market’s close. This brought the policy rate to 5.5%.

“The PSEi rose this Thursday, taking cues from Wall Street’s rally overnight. The local market continued with its run as investors appreciated Mr. Trump’s move to temporarily drop tariff rates for most of its trading partners with higher tariffs to 10% to give room for negotiations,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Senior Research Analyst Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

Overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 7.87% or 2,962.86 points to 40,608.45; the S&P 500 went up by 9.52% or 474.13 points to 5,456.90; and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 12.16% or 1,857.06 points to 17,124.97.

At home, all sectoral indices closed higher. Mining and oil surged by 6.44% or 561.79 points to 9,276.33; holding firms climbed by 3.76% or 184.15 points to 5,074.22; industrials went up by 1.27% or 107.55 points to 8,545.6; property increased by 1.08% or 23.50 points to 2,181.57; financials rose by 0.11% or 2.83 points to 2,373.37; and services inched up by 0.01% or 0.25 point to 1,916.63.

Value turnover surged to PHP 13.31 billion on Thursday with 951.3 million shares traded, from the PHP 6.42 billion with 1.22 billion issues exchanged on Tuesday.

Advancers outnumbered decliners, 129 versus 72, while 46 names were unchanged.

Net foreign selling went down to PHP 110.26 million on Thursday from PHP 427.75 million on Tuesday. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave with Reuters

ADB cuts Philippine growth forecast

ADB cuts Philippine growth forecast

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) trimmed its gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for the Philippines this year, though this still places it among the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia.

In its latest Asian Development Outlook (ADO), the multilateral lender lowered its growth forecast for the country to 6% this year from its 6.2% projection in December.

This would be faster than the 5.6% GDP growth in 2024. It would also hit the lower end of the Philippine government’s 6-8% growth target band for the year.

However, the ADB noted these forecasts do not yet consider US President Donald J. Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs went into effect on April 9.

ADB Senior Economics Officer Teresa B. Mendoza said the slight downgrade accounted for the “lower-than-expected turnout in the (fourth) quarter of 2024 because we have seen household spending growth moderated more than we expected.”

“This was also actually as an effect of the lingering impacts of high inflation for most of the year, although it trended lower in the second half after the fourth quarter, and also the lagged impacts of tight monetary policy,” she said at a briefing on Wednesday.

Philippine economic growth this year will be driven by “strengthening domestic demand and sustained public investment,” according to the report.

“Sound macroeconomic fundamentals and structural reforms support a sustained positive outlook, with growth projected at 6% this year and 6.1% in 2026,” Ms. Mendoza said.

In Southeast Asia, the Philippines is projected to be the third-fastest-growing economy this year, just behind Vietnam (6.6%) and Cambodia (6.1%).

It is ahead of Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.9%), Timor-Leste (4%), Lao PDR (3.9%), Thailand (2.8%), Singapore (2.6%), Brunei Darussalam (2.5%) and Myanmar (1.1%).

The Philippines’ growth forecast is also above the ADB’s projection for developing Asia, which is expected to grow 4.9% this year and 4.7% in 2026. The region includes 46 Asia-Pacific countries, but excludes Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

This year, household spending in the Philippines will be boosted by strong employment and remittances, the multilateral lender said.

The country’s private investment and business indicators have also been positive, it added.

“Modest inflation is projected at 3% over the forecast period, and monetary easing will support growth,” Ms. Mendoza said.

The ADB sees headline inflation averaging 3% in 2025 and in 2026. This is below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) baseline inflation forecast of 3.5% this year and next.

“While there are upside risks to inflation, including potential increases in electricity rates and transport fares, inflation is projected to remain within the 2% to 4% target through 2026,” the report said.

This outlook will also pave the way for continued monetary policy easing, it added.

“In terms of the monetary policy, what we are expecting that the BSP continue is seeing its monetary policy, but a much more gradual pace,” Ms. Mendoza said.

The BSP began its rate-cutting cycle in August last year, lowering borrowing costs by a total of 75 basis points (bps) to 5.75% by end-2024.

The central bank delivered a pause at its first policy review this year in February amid global trade uncertainties.

Markets are widely expecting the Monetary Board to resume its easing cycle with a 25-bp cut at its meeting today (April 10.).

“Further reforms to enhance the investment climate bode well. Public infrastructure investment, with its high multipliers, will continue to support growth,” the ADB added.

It cited reforms such as the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) Act.

Meanwhile, the ADB also noted that the National Government’s (NG) fiscal consolidation efforts are on track.

“Additional revenues and expenditure reforms are supporting fiscal consolidation,” it said.

Treasury data showed the NG’s budget deficit shrank by 0.38% or PHP 5.7 billion to PHP 1.506 trillion in 2024. However, it exceeded the PHP 1.48-trillion deficit ceiling set by the Development Budget Coordination Committee.

This year, the NG’s deficit ceiling is capped at PHP 1.54 trillion or 5.3% of GDP.

“Programs are also being undertaken to make spending more efficient. The new government procurement law enhances project implementation and procurement processes,” Ms. Mendoza added.

However, the multilateral lender sees the current account remaining in a deficit, “as imports rise to meet aggregate demand.”

“Capital-intensive imports for infrastructure projects will remain strong. Merchandise exports will likely be subdued, with prospects uneven for major external markets,” it added.

Latest data from the BSP showed the current account deficit widened by 41.4% to USD 17.5 billion in 2024. This marked the second-largest current account deficit on record.

Risks to growth

Meanwhile, the ADB cited several downside risks to its  growth outlook.

“This includes increased uncertainty over the external environment, including significant shifts in trade and investment policies, and increased protectionism and its adverse impacts on investor sentiment,” Ms. Mendoza said.

“Heightened geopolitical tensions were also highlighted, and weather shocks could drive commodity prices higher.”

The ADO released on Wednesday did not tackle the potential impacts of the sweeping US tariffs. ADB Chief Economist Albert F. Park said they will follow the evolution of the trade policies and update the forecasts in their next ADO to be released in July.

“The situation is still unfolding as we know, so it’s very soon to tell. In July, we’ll have a better idea,” ADB Philippines Principal Country Specialist Cristina Lozano said.

“But I want to make a point that the Philippines faces these US tariffs and the potential global slowdown from a position of relative strength. The macroeconomic fundamentals are very strong,” she added.

Ms. Mendoza noted the Philippine economy is mostly driven by domestic demand, not exports.

“We’re still monitoring the impacts because there are spillover effects across various channels.”

However, the country’s services sector, a key growth driver, will likely remain unaffected by tariffs, Ms. Lozano said.

“It’s a buffer to the economy. We don’t know what’s gonna happen, but for the moment, the Philippine economy is protected because most of the exports of the Philippines are in the semiconductor sector.”

The US exempted some commodities such as semiconductors from the reciprocal tariffs.

Electronics manufacturing services and semiconductor manufacturing services account for almost half or 44.5% of Philippine export sales to the US.

Abdul Abiad, director of ADB’s Macroeconomic Research Division, said there are many different policy options that countries can explore to mitigate the impact of these tariffs.

“Negotiations are obviously another important component in terms of policy response, but really most important, especially considering how integration has benefited this region the most, actually, in the world.”

“Doubling down on open trade and investment is going to be key and is really something within the control of economies in the region, and that will take many forms.”

This could be done by diversifying export markets and strengthening current free trade agreements, among others.

“I would expect to see, especially if these tariffs from the US persist, that you’ll see this reconfiguration that will actually strengthen intra-regional integration,” Mr. Abiad added.

Ms. Lozano said these tariffs could also “reinforce the case for regional integration, especially in Asian economies.” She noted the Philippines can take advantage of its membership in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, as well as pursue free trade deals with the European Union and other countries.

“I think this renewed commitment to regional trade agreements will support positive changes, and will gain momentum, given the situation.”

Pavit Ramachandran, ADB country director for the Philippines, said there is a need to continue domestic reforms, particularly on ease of doing business, investment, climate, and logistics and infrastructure.

The government can also focus on “increasing the sophistication of the economy” as a strategy, he said.

“For the Philippines, given that 60% of their exports are electronics, and this is relatively concentrated in a few markets, I think diversification is something that is worth pursuing.”

Within Southeast Asia, the Philippines can also reinforce engagement, Mr. Ramachandran said.

“There’s also a chance to move up the value chain in services. There is an opportunity to look at moving up to more financial services, healthcare, areas around IT, even in the BPO sector, for example.”

“There is an opportunity to also streamline tariffs. I think we’re already seeing that discussion happening in terms of a negotiation strategy. So, I think that work that’s already started in the Philippines will need to continue,” he added.

Trade Secretary Ma. Cristina A. Roque earlier said they are open to lowering tariffs on US goods in response to the US imposition of a 17% reciprocal tariff on Philippine goods. – Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Senior Reporter

Banks’ NPL ratio steady at 3.38% in Feb.

Banks’ NPL ratio steady at 3.38% in Feb.

The Philippine banking industry’s gross nonperforming loan (NPL) ratio remained steady in February, according to data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

Preliminary data from the central bank showed the bad loan ratio stood at 3.38% in February, the same as January. On the other hand, it was lower than 3.44% in the same month in 2024.

Loans are considered nonperforming once they remain unpaid for at least 90 days after the due date. These are deemed as risk assets since borrowers are unlikely to pay.

The amount of nonperforming loans inched up by 0.1% to PHP 513.35 billion in February from PHP 512.83 billion in January. Year on year, soured loans jumped by 10.1% from PHP 466.11 billion.

The total loan portfolio of the banking system slipped to PHP 15.173 trillion from PHP 15.176 trillion a month ago. However, it climbed by 12.1% from PHP 13.54 trillion a year earlier.

Past due loans stood at PHP 637.81 billion in February, up by 0.7% month on month from PHP 633.1 billion. It likewise increased by 9.2% from PHP 584.23 billion in the same month in 2024.

This brought the past due ratio to 4.2%, higher than 4.17% in January but lower than 4.31% a year ago.

Restructured loans dipped to PHP 311.11 billion in February from PHP 311.22 billion a month prior. Year on year, it went up by 6.5% from PHP 292.1 billion.

Restructured loans accounted for 2.05% of the industry’s total loan portfolio, steady from January and lower than 2.16% a year ago.

Banks’ loan loss reserves inched up by 0.2% to PHP 489.55 billion in February from PHP 488.48 billion in the previous month and increased by 5% from PHP 466.39 billion a year earlier.

This brought the loan loss reserve ratio to 3.23% in February from 3.22% in January and 3.44% in 2024.

Lenders’ NPL coverage ratio, which gauges the allowance for potential losses due to bad loans, rose to 95.36% in February from 95.25% in January but dipped from 100.06% a year ago.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the steady NPL ratio was largely due to the faster growth in loans that broadened the base.

This would also “reflect a corresponding growth in NPLs in the numerator, thereby mathematically keeping the said NPL ratio steady,” he added.

Separate BSP data showed bank lending growth slowed to 12.2% in February from the 12.8% expansion in January, which was the fastest in two years.

Year on year, the growth in lending was faster than the 8.7% increase in February 2024.

“The steady NPL ratio also reflects better management of credit risks amid faster loan growth in recent months,” he added.

Mr. Ricafort said lower interest rates since late last year also eased the debt burden for borrowers.

The central bank began its easing cycle in August last year, slashing borrowing costs by a total of 75 basis points (bps) and bringing the rate to 5.75% by end-2024.

“Possible further Fed and local policy rate cuts in the coming months would also help improve the NPL ratio,” he said.

Despite keeping rates steady in February, the BSP is widely expected to resume easing at its policy-setting meeting today (April 10.)

A BusinessWorld poll conducted last week showed that all 17 analysts surveyed expect the Monetary Board to reduce the target reverse repurchase rate by 25 bps.

If realized, this would bring the benchmark rate to 5.5% from the current 5.75%.

On the other hand, Mr. Ricafort flagged risks such as the United States’ recent reciprocal tariffs, which could slow growth, investments and business activities.

This could “reduce sales, incomes, and ability to pay by some borrowers,” he added.

US President Donald J. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on the country’s trading partners took effect on Wednesday (April 9), deepening the global trade war.

The Philippines was slapped with a tariff rate of 17%, though this was the second lowest in Southeast Asia, just after Singapore, which received the 10% baseline tariff.

“Employment data among the best in 20 years or since revised records started in 2005 would continue to support the continued growth in consumer loans and overall loans, while also leading to more incomes that support the ability to pay by some borrowers,” Mr. Ricafort said.

The latest data from the local statistics authority showed the jobless rate dropped to a two-month low of 3.8% in February. The underemployment rate likewise fell to a nine-month low of 10.1%. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

BTr eyes at least PHP 30B from new 10-year bonds

BTr eyes at least PHP 30B from new 10-year bonds

The government is looking to raise at least PHP 30 billion through 10-year fixed-rate Treasury notes (FXTN) that it will start offering next week.

“This offering will establish our new 10-year benchmark bond,” National Treasurer Sharon P. Almanza said in a Viber message.

In a notice on its website, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) said it will hold the price-setting auction on April 15 for Government Securities Eligible Dealers (GSEDs).

“We will have an offer period until April 24 for investors to participate and place their orders. This new issuance forms part of our domestic financing for 2025,” Ms. Almanza said.

The offer period runs from April 15 to 25, while the issue date will be on April 28.

The bonds, due on April 28, 2035, will be issued in scripless form and sold in minimum denominations of P10 million and integral multiples of PHP 1 million thereof.

During the auction, GSEDs will be allowed to submit up to 10 bids at different interest rates with a maximum volume of PHP 10 billion per submission

“The Republic may set up and maintain a sinking fund with the BTr in order to accumulate the amounts necessary to pay the principal of the FXTNs on the maturity date,” the Treasury added.

A trader said in a text message that the issuance was made to match the maturities this month.

“With a potential rate cut on Thursday, the BTr will be able to take advantage and lock in a cheaper borrowing rate for the longer tenor,” the trader added.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is scheduled to hold its policy review meeting today (April 10).

A BusinessWorld poll conducted last week showed that all 17 analysts surveyed expect the Monetary Board to reduce its target reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.5% from 5.75%.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the yield for the new bonds could match the 10-year yield at the PHP Bloomberg Valuation (BVAL) Service Reference Rates which was at 6.1413% as of April 8.

He added the offer could see strong reception due to safe-haven demand for Treasury bonds amid increased volatility in the global markets.

“However, an external risk factor is the volatility in the comparable benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield at new 1.5-month highs, now at 4.49%, sharply up from the immediate low of 3.86% posted on April 4, 2025, amid retaliatory tariff/trade measures between the US and China,” Mr. Ricafort said.

The Treasury is looking to raise PHP 245 billion from the domestic market this month — PHP 125 billion via T-bills and PHP 120 billion through T-bonds.

The government borrows from local and foreign sources to help fund its budget deficit, which is capped at PHP 1.54 trillion this year. — A.M.C. Sy

Jobless rate drops to 2-month low

Jobless rate drops to 2-month low

The jobless rate slipped to a two-month low in February, as more Filipinos joined the labor force ahead of the summer season and midterm elections, the statistics agency said on Tuesday.

At the same time, the underemployment rate — an indicator of job quality — fell to a nine-month low of 10.1%.

Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority’s (PSA) Labor Force Survey (LFS) showed the jobless rate stood at 3.8%, easing from 4.3% in January.

Philippine Labor Force Situation

Year on year, this was slightly higher than 3.5% a year ago.

This translated to 1.94 million jobless Filipinos in the second month of the year, lower than the 2.16 million seen in January 2025. Year on year, it was higher than the 1.8 million unemployed Filipinos seen in February 2024.

For the first two months of 2025, the jobless rate averaged 4%, same as a year ago.

“In February we’re already picking up an increase in employment, mainly due to political organizations hiring people, which is around 41,000. Most probably, this will continue until May, and that, in a way, creates seasonality,” PSA Undersecretary and National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa told a news briefing in mixed English and Filipino.

In February, the employment rate rose to 96.2%, equivalent to 49.15 million, from 95.7% in January which translated to 48.49 million employed Filipinos.

Year on year, it was slightly lower than 96.5% in February 2024, which was equivalent to 48.95 million Filipinos with jobs.

Mr. Mapa noted election-related employment is not substantial compared with “core areas” such as the service sector and wholesale and retail trade, particularly food and accommodation.

The campaign period for the May 12 elections began in February.

At the same time, job quality improved in February as the underemployment rate slipped to 10.1% from 12.4% in the same month a year ago and 13.3% in January.

The ranks of underemployed Filipinos — those who want longer work hours or an additional job — fell to 4.96 million from 6.08 million a year ago and 6.47 million in January.

For the two-month period, underemployment averaged 11.7%, falling from 13% a year ago.

“What is substantial here is the visible underemployed, those working less than 40 hours, and those sectors that have seen a significant increase,” Mr. Mapa said.

Underemployment declined in several sectors such as wholesale and retail trade, transportation and storage, other service activities, and manufacturing.

Yearly Job Gains by Industry (February 2025 vs February 2024, in thousands)
Bigger labor force

PSA data also showed 51.09 million Filipinos were part of the labor force in February, higher than the 50.65 million in January, and the 50.75 million in the same month last year.

The labor force participation rate (LFPR) — the proportion of the working-age population (15 years old and over) that is part of the total labor force — slipped to 64.5% in February from 64.8% a year ago. Month on month, the LFPR inched up from 63.9% in January.

“Notably, the country’s labor force participation increased by 345,000. The significant decline in participation among youth aged 15-24 reflects a growing trend of young individuals actively pursuing education, highlighting our National Government’s commitment to investing in the future of its youth,” Labor Secretary Bienvenido E. Laguesma told BusinessWorld in a Viber chat.

The youth LFPR slipped to 31.1% in February, down from 33.8% a year earlier and 31.8% in January 2025.

The youth employment rate stood at 89.6% in February, lower than the 91.4% posted a year ago.

In a separate statement, Mr. Laguesma said the February jobs data reflect the government’s “firm commitment as it maintains a positive outlook and encouraging trajectory for our labor market.”

The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said the Philippines’ unemployment rate “remains comparable” to Malaysia (3.1%) and Vietnam (2.2%), and lower than China (5.4%) and India (6.4%).

“We will build on our momentum and intensify our efforts to secure strategic job-generating investments, promote a dynamic and innovative business environment, and diversify growth drivers,” NEDA Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said in a statement.

“The continued rollout and implementation of high-impact infrastructure flagship projects, particularly in energy, transport, and digital connectivity, will boost domestic employment and business activity,” he added.

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said the strong labor market can help shield the Philippine economy from a looming trade war and global uncertainties.

“A strong and growing workforce means rising incomes, greater spending power, and sustained job creation. This fuels consumer demand and pushes our economy forward,” Mr. Recto said in a statement.

“We must continue to boost domestic demand, especially in these uncertain times marked by brewing trade wars. A strong and resilient domestic market is our best defense,” he added.

Monthly Job Gains by Industry (February 2025 vs February 2024, in thousands)
Federation of Free Workers President Jose Sonny G. Matula said the improvement in the labor market can be attributed to a combination of economic recovery efforts and government programs.

“Post-pandemic recovery momentum has led to increased consumer activity and business reopening, especially in services and hospitality,” he said in a Viber chat.

He also noted the administration’s “Build Better More” infrastructure program continues to generate construction-related jobs, as well as boost mobility and tourism in key provinces.

Government cash-for-work programs and localized employment initiatives may have also contributed to the uptick in employment, Mr. Matula added.

University of the Philippines Diliman School of Labor and Industrial Relations Assistant Professor Benjamin B. Velasco welcomed the improvement in jobs but noted that quality is more important.

“Better employment figures shown in the LFS are welcome. But better quantity of jobs does not imply better quality of jobs,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

By sector, services remained the top employer, accounting for 61.6% of total employed persons in February, followed by agriculture (20.1%) and industry (18.3%).

The accommodation and food service sector had the biggest annual employment gains in February, adding 377,000 jobs. This was followed by fishing and aquaculture (+365,000), public administration and defense (+330,000), construction (+258,000), and other service activities (+232,000).

Mr. Mapa noted there was an increase in employment in the accommodation and food service sector ahead of the summer season.

Month on month, wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles had the biggest jump in the number of employed persons at 620,000.

Mr. Mapa said the additional 620,000 were mostly employed in nonspecialized stores with food and beverages.

PSA data showed agriculture and forestry lost the most workers year on year, shedding almost 950,000 in February.

This  was followed by administrative and support service activities (-201,000) and transportation and storage (-158,000).

“Whenever there are job losses, whatever the sector, it is a cause for concern,” Mr. Laguesma said.

The labor chief noted that in 2024, the country was hit with several devastating typhoons and weather disturbances that affected agriculture and forestry.

“The country is calamity-prone which mainly contributes to our losses in the agriculture and fishery sectors. Hopefully, we don’t experience the same this year,” Mr. Laguesma said.

Month on month, agriculture and forestry lost the most workers (-520,000), followed by administrative and support service activities (-308,000), and transportation and storage (-176,000).

Mr. Laguesma said the government will continue its initiatives to boost employment, such as the upcoming Labor Day Job Fair.

The department is also bolstering its efforts to empower the youth through the JobStart Program, Special Program for Employment of Students, and Government Internship Program.

“To ensure this thrust, [we are] actively engaged in continuous capacity-building initiatives nationwide to strengthen the implementation of these youth employability programs through our Public Employment Service Offices and program implementers,” he added.

In a note, Chinabank Research said the Philippine labor market is expected to remain stable, but cited risks such as global uncertainties, higher US tariffs and a global slowdown.

“Looking ahead, the service sector will likely remain a key driver of job growth, supported by steady domestic demand. On the other hand, goods-producing sectors, especially those reliant on foreign demand, may face headwinds from higher tariffs from the Philippines’ biggest export market: the US. Nevertheless, opportunities remain through diversification and policy support,” Chinabank Research said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Balisacan said the government is set to launch the Trabaho Para sa Bayan Act Plan 2025-2034.

This includes programs to improve the competitiveness of the Filipino workforce, encourage innovation and promote technology adoption among enterprises, and enhance labor market governance.

For his part, Mr. Matula proposed a shift toward agro-industrialization as a long-term solution, especially in rural areas.

He noted the importance of investing in value-added industries within agriculture and fisheries — such as food processing, logistics, and export development — to generate more stable, higher-paying employment opportunities.

He also highlighted the need for stronger government support for micro, small, and medium enterprises. – Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter

DTI mulls lower tariffs on US goods

DTI mulls lower tariffs on US goods

The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) said on Monday that it is open to lowering tariffs on US goods in response to US President Donald J. Trump’s imposition of a 17% reciprocal tariff on Philippine goods.

“We are really going to do that… Actually, we, the economic team, are going to meet soon,” Trade Secretary Ma. Cristina A. Roque told reporters on Monday.

She said the Philippines is “definitely” looking at reducing the tariffs on US products but noted that the economic team will discuss the extent of what the Philippines can offer.

Ms. Roque’s statement came after US and Vietnam leaders agreed to discuss a “deal to remove tariffs” after a “very productive phone call” on April 4, Reuters reported.

Ms. Roque said the Philippine government is also looking at a collective response with other Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member-countries to address the higher US tariffs.

Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim on Sunday called for a united ASEAN response to the US tariffs. He said Malaysia, as ASEAN chair, is ready to lead efforts to “ensure ASEAN’s collective voice is heard clearly and firmly on the international stage.”

The US slapped ASEAN countries with some of the highest tariffs, which will take effect on April 9. Cambodia is facing a 49% tariff, followed by Laos (48%), Vietnam (46%), Myanmar (45%), Thailand (37%), Indonesia (32%), Malaysia (24%), and Brunei (24%).

Compared with its regional neighbors, the Philippines’ tariffs are among the lowest, only second to Singapore, which was imposed a baseline rate of 10%.

Malacañang on Monday said the government is taking action to reverse the effects of the 17% reciprocal tariff, but declined to give details.

“I am aware that actions will be taken that will be beneficial for our country,” Palace Spokesperson Clarissa A. Castro told a news briefing.

In 2024, the Philippines imported $8.17 billion worth of commodities from the US, and exported $12.14 billion worth of goods to the US, data from the statistics agency showed. This brought the trade surplus to $3.97 billion last year.

The US is a major source of agricultural imports, representing approximately 20% of total Philippine imports.

Earlier, the DTI said it targets to engage the US in a discussion in pursuit of a mutually beneficial trade.

In particular, Ms. Roque said that she plans to facilitate enhanced market access for key US export interests, including automobiles, dairy products, frozen meat, and soybeans, within the framework of a bilateral free trade agreement.

‘Catious’

Meanwhile, Philippine manufacturing firms are likely to be more cautious amid uncertainty arising from Mr. Trump’s tariff policies, an electronics firm executive said.

“Maybe after today, we’ll be more cautious moving forward this second and third quarter… There’s a lot of wait-and-see attitude amongst manufacturing and companies on the impact of the global tariff,” EMS Group Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Ferdinand “Perry” A. Ferrer told BusinessWorld during a phone call on April 3.

EMS Group is a complete electronic, semiconductor and medical subcontracting group that offers technology and manufacturing solutions.

Mr. Ferrer said many local firms, as well as global companies, put expansion plans on hold in anticipation of the tariff announcement.

“The ripple effect is on the supply chain, which affects the Philippines,” he said.

Mr. Ferrer said the relatively lower tariff rate on the Philippines compared with its neighboring countries puts it in a “good position” to secure future investments.

“Moving forward, we can see, we will do some campaigning in our partner countries, from Taiwan, Japan, of course the United States and some European Union countries, on how to bring in the much-needed foreign direct investments (FDIs) in services in manufacturing,” he said.

Earl Lawrence S. Qua, president of the Electronics Industry Association of the Philippines, said the government should try to work with the US to lower the tariffs.

“We need to make sure we do not escalate further and try to negotiate with the US to bring down tariffs. At the moment we need to wait and see how the tariffs will be implemented,” Mr. Qua said.

However, Leonardo A. Lanzona, who teaches economics at the Ateneo de Manila University, said that while the 17% tariff “would seem to be small,” the impact would still be greater compared with other countries since the US is the Philippines’ top export destination.

“To assume that other countries will choose to come in the Philippines because of the lower tariffs is as irrational as these tariffs imposed by Trump,” Mr. Lanzona said.

In 2024, the US was the top destination for Philippine exports, accounting for 17% of the total.

Council

Meanwhile, the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) said that it is crucial that the Philippine government establish an Economic Security Council amid the new US tariff measures.

“The proposal to establish an Economic Security Council is crucial given the global business risks posed by US tariffs, as well as the geostrategic considerations that the Philippines must now take into account in these still uncharted waters,” said PEZA Director-General Tereso O. Panga in a Facebook post.

“In PEZA, we believe we must craft a concrete roadmap to move forward together — seizing opportunities while mitigating the impact of tariffs on global trade involving the Philippines,” he added.

The Management Association of the Philippines (MAP) earlier recommended the formation of an Economic Security Council under the Office of the President to address the impact of the US tariffs.

According to the MAP, the council should be composed of the DTI, the Department of Foreign Affairs, the National Security Council, the Department of Finance, the National Economic and Development Authority, PEZA, the Anti-Red Tape Authority, the Department of Labor and Employment, and appropriate private sector and industry representatives.

Mr. Panga said that the first step should be to secure reduced tariff lines for key economic zone (ecozone) exports to the US.

Key ecozone exports to the US include EMS-SMS (electronics manufacturing services and semiconductor manufacturing services), machinery, transport equipment, automotive parts, and select agricultural products, including coconut. — Justine Irish D. Tabile, Reporter with Aubrey Rose A. Insosante and J.V.D.Ordoñez

Philippine shares slump on Trump tariff turmoil

Philippine shares slump on Trump tariff turmoil

The Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) plummeted over 4% to a 30-month low on Monday amid a global sell-off as US President Donald J. Trump doubled down on his aggressive tariff plan.

This comes as Cebu-based fuel retailer Top Line Business Development Corp. (Topline) is set to make its stock market debut on Tuesday. This is the first initial public offering (IPO) at the PSE this year.

The bellwether PSE index (PSEi) on Monday dropped by 4.29% or 261.34 points to close at 5,822.85, while the broader all shares index fell by 4.02% or 146.67 points to 3,496.77.

This was the PSEi’s lowest close in 30 months or since the 5,783.15 finish on Oct. 3, 2022. It also marked the PSEi’s return to bear market territory as it was down by 23.4% from the immediate high of 7,604.61 posted on Oct. 7 last year.

The PSEi’s 4.29% decline on Monday was also the biggest one-day drop in more than 57 months or since the 4.82% drop on June 15, 2020.

The last time that the PSEi closed at 5,800 level was more than two months ago, when it finished at 5,883.04 on Feb. 3.

DragonFi Securities, Inc. Equity Research Analyst Jarrod Leighton M. Tin said the market declined due to concerns over the US reciprocal tariffs.

“The market saw heavy selling today amid heightened concerns over tariffs and renewed trade war tensions, which could lead to a global trade slowdown and potentially tip the US into a recession,” Mr. Tin said in a Viber message.

Mr. Trump on Sunday warned foreign governments they would have to pay “a lot of money” to lift sweeping tariffs, characterizing the duties as “medicine” and delivering more pain for global financial markets on Monday, Reuters reported.

Asian equity markets sank across the board and oil prices plummeted as investors feared that the duties unveiled last week could lead to higher prices, weaker demand and potentially a global recession.

JPMorgan last week raised its odds for a US and global recession to 60%, while Goldman Sachs also increased the odds to 45% in the next 12 months.

“Adding to the pressure, foreign fund managers typically have minimal exposure to Philippine equities, so offloading a significant portion of their local holdings has little impact on their overall portfolios — making them more willing to sell aggressively in times of uncertainty,” Mr. Tin said.

All indices closed in the red, led by mining and oil which slumped by 8.75%, followed by services (-4.97%) and industrial (-4.81%).

At the same time, the peso sank by 60.9 centavos (1.06%) to close at PHP 57.43 per dollar on Monday from its PHP 56.821 finish on Friday. This was the biggest one-day drop since the 1.08% decline on Sept. 9, 2024.

Year to date, the peso is still up by 0.72% or 41.5 centavos from its end-2024 close of P57.845.

Overshadowed by tariffs

Analysts said the negative investor sentiment arising from concerns over the global economy may cloud Topline’s stock market debut on Tuesday.

Topline will be listed on main board of the PSE with the stock symbol “TOP.” The company will be a part of the industrial sector, under the electricity, energy, power, and water sub-sector.

“The listing comes in the midst of major volatility in the stock market, so we have to hand it to the owners for their determination to see this through,” China Bank Capital Corp. Managing Director Juan Paolo E. Colet said in a Viber message.

“Unfortunately, the IPO is being overshadowed by tariffs and trade wars,” he added.

COL Financial Group, Inc. Chief Equity Strategist April Lynn C. Lee-Tan said in a Viber message that the negative investor sentiment could drag shares of Topline on its first trading day.

“At least they were able to raise some money,” she said.

Topline set its final IPO price at 31 centavos per share, lower than the maximum offer price of 38 centavos previously projected.

The company’s IPO was initially sized at PHP 3.16 billion, but was reduced to PHP 900 million and subsequently lowered to PHP 732.62 million after the final offer price was set.

The IPO comprised of 2.36 billion shares, with a base offer of 2.15 billion primary common shares with an over-allotment option of up to 214.84 million secondary common shares.

The PSE is targeting to have six IPOs this year. Some companies that are planning their IPOs include mobile wallet platform GCash and Pangilinan-led water provider Maynilad Water Services, Inc.

Tariff ‘medicine’

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday, Mr. Trump indicated he was not concerned about losses that have wiped out trillions of dollars in value from world stock markets.

“I don’t want anything to go down. But sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something,” he said as he returned from a weekend of golf in Florida.

Mr. Trump said he had spoken to leaders from Europe and Asia over the weekend, who hope to convince him to lower tariffs as high as 50% due to take effect this week.

“They are coming to the table. They want to talk but there’s no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis,” Mr. Trump said.

Mr. Trump’s barrage of tariffs announced last week was met with bewildered condemnation from other leaders and triggered retaliatory levies from China, the world’s No. 2 economy.

Billionaire fund manager Bill Ackman, who endorsed Mr. Trump’s run for president, called for the tariffs to be paused to avert an “economic nuclear winter.” “The president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe,” he added.

Investors and political leaders have struggled to determine whether Mr. Trump’s tariffs are part of a permanent new regime or a negotiating tactic to win concessions from other countries.

On Sunday talk shows, Mr. Trump’s top economic advisers sought to portray the tariffs as a savvy repositioning of the US in the global trade order.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said more than 50 nations had started negotiations with the US since last Wednesday’s announcement. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the tariffs would remain in place “for days and weeks.”

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of Japan, one of Washington’s closest allies in Asia, is also trying to cut a deal with Mr. Trump but told parliament on Monday that it may take time.

Investors are now wagering on the mounting risk of recession. They could see the US Federal Reserve cutting rates as early as next month.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett sought to tamp down concerns that the tariffs were part of a strategy to pressure the central bank to lower interest rates, saying there would be no “political coercion.”

Fed chief Jerome H. Powell has indicated he is in no rush to take action.

JPMorgan economists now estimate the tariffs will see full-year US gross domestic product (GDP) decline by 0.3%, down from an earlier estimate of 1.3% growth.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs said the tariffs could lower GDP growth in China by at least 0.7% percentage point this year. It currently anticipates China to record 4.5% growth in 2025.

US customs agents began collecting Mr. Trump’s unilateral 10% tariff on all imports from many countries on Saturday. Higher “reciprocal” tariff rates of 11% to 50% on individual countries are due to take effect on Wednesday at 12:01 a.m. EDT (4:01 a.m. GMT). — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave, Reporter with Reuters

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