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Archives: Business World Article

Shares inch higher on Fed bets, peso’s rebound

Shares inch higher on Fed bets, peso’s rebound

Philippine shares edged higher Thursday as bargain hunting continued and as the peso rose further against the dollar, with positive sentiment from Wall Street on expectations of more rate cuts spilling over to the local market.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) inched up by 0.22% or 13.73 points to close at 6,039.76, while the broader all shares index rose by 0.12% or 4.67 points to end at 3,659.29.

“The local market extended its gains as investors continued with their bargain hunting. The positive cues from Wall Street driven by Federal Reserve rate cut hopes helped in Thursday’s session,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Senior Research Analyst Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a market note.

“The slight improvement in the peso’s position also aided the local bourse,” he said. The peso rose by four centavos to close at PHP 58.080 against the dollar on Thursday from PHP 58.12 on Wednesday, marking a second day of gains.

A weak US labor market report bolstered bets for US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, Reuters reported. The US government shutdown made it a near certainty that crucial monthly payrolls data won’t be released on Friday, but overnight the private ADP employment report showed the economy unexpectedly shed jobs in September, with the prior month also revised to a decline.

Even without the benefit of official labor data, the dismal ADP report had traders pricing in quarter-point Fed rate cuts at each of the two remaining policy meetings of the year as almost a done deal. The promise of an easier policy environment helped lift Wall Street to fresh record highs on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, AP Securities, Inc. said in a market note that the PSEi managed to stay above 6,000 mainly on the back of a 2.03% jump from index heavyweight SM Investments Corp.  (SMIC).

SMIC was the index’s leader for the day, while SM Prime Holdings, Inc. was the main laggard as it dropped by 2.18%, Mr. Tantiangco noted.

“Trading was still tepid, however, … reflecting the weak market confidence amid lingering uncertainties,” he added.

Value turnover went down to PHP 5.56 billion on Thursday with 1.52 billion shares traded from Wednesday’s PHP 6.8 billion with 2.46 billion shares changing hands.

Most sectoral indices closed higher on Thursday. Mining & oil jumped by 2.2% or 291.86 points to 13,538.53; holding firms climbed by 1.26% or 61.86 points to 4,972.31; financials rose by 0.43% or 9.09 points to 2,081.86; industrials increased by 0.11% or 10.39 points to 8,892.69; and services edged up by 0.01% or 0.39 point to 2,194.03.

Meanwhile, property went down by 1.2% or 27.66 points to 2,275.13.

Decliners outnumbered advancers, 95 to 89, while 65 names closed unchanged.

Net foreign selling went down to PHP 762.04 million on Thursday from PHP 1.03 billion on Wednesday. — Alexandria Grace C. Magno with Reuters

Factory activity shrinks in September

Factory activity shrinks in September

Factory activity in the Philippines contracted for the first time in six months in September, as manufacturers saw a drop in output and new orders, S&P Global said on Wednesday.

The S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slipped to 49.9 in September from 50.8 in August.

A PMI reading below 50 shows a deterioration in operating conditions from the preceding month, while a reading above 50 denotes better operating conditions.

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of Select ASEAN Economies, September 2025This was the second contraction this year, or since the 49.4 reading in March, as manufacturers cut output amid uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies at the time.

“The Philippines PMI survey data showed the manufacturing sector moving into negative territory at the end of the third quarter which, despite indicating only a fractional decline, has been highly unusual in the sector’s post-pandemic history,” David Owen, a senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said.

According to S&P Global, this was only the third time in over four years that the Philippines’ manufacturing PMI fell below 50.

“New orders and output decreased slightly, as firms mentioned a fall in client numbers and a modest drop in production from the suspension of rice imports,” Mr. Owen said.

Based on S&P Global’s Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) data, the Philippines and Malaysia (49.8) both saw a contraction in factory activity in September.

Thailand recorded the highest PMI reading (54.6), followed by Myanmar (53.1), Indonesia (50.4), and Vietnam (50.4).

The Philippines’ PMI reading was also below the 51.6 average for ASEAN in September.

S&P said Philippine manufacturing firms saw a decline in sales for the first time since March.

“Weaker operating conditions were mainly attributed to a renewed (albeit marginal) drop in new order intakes in September,” it said. “However, order books with foreign clients continued to improve, signaling that the downturn was mainly centered on the domestic market.”

Manufacturers had to scale back production in September, ending three straight months of expansion.

S&P noted that firms surveyed said that aside from weak demand, adverse weather conditions and a ban on rice imports negatively affected output.

Despite this, goods producers increased purchases of raw materials and other components in September, although the rate of growth was slower than August.

“In contrast, post-production inventories declined due to lower output as well as some efforts to reduce backlogs of work, which dropped for the first time since April,” it said.

The survey data also showed a “subdued jobs market” in September.

Firms also saw higher input costs in September, which prompted them to marginally increase selling prices.

Also, S&P noted the level of business confidence was the second highest since November 2024. Most firms were generally confident of an improvement in sales in the next 12 months.

“However, with overall sentiment in the year-ahead remaining upbeat in September, and purchasing quantities increasing, manufacturers appear hopeful that the dip in sector performance is temporary,” Mr. Owen said.

Supply disruptions

Analysts said the decline in manufacturing activity can be attributed to supply disruptions caused by heavy rains and floods in September.

“This was mainly due to weak demand, high input costs, and supply disruptions, including weather-related issues,” John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said in a Viber message. “The sluggish factory orders and softer business sentiment reflect broader economic headwinds.”

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said manufacturing activity was affected by fewer working days due to bad weather, US tariffs and the so-called “ghost month.”

“(Higher tariffs) led to some wait-and-see attitude for some exports from the country and also exports in the global supply chains in terms of more cautious stance on their production and capacity,” he added.

“Temporary dip”

S&P Global Marketing Intelligence Economics Associate Director Jingyu Pan said the decline in Philippine factory output in September is only a “temporary dip.”

She said new export orders remained steady even as the US implemented the 19% tariff on Philippine-made goods on Aug. 7.

“If we take just a little bit of a step back and look at all the other PMI that has been released for the Asian region so far, you are certainly getting quite a bit of mixed picture… It’s undeniable that we’re still seeing some of this frontloading across the APAC region,” Ms. Pan said.

Ms. Pan also noted that recent flooding was a more immediate drag on production than the government-wide probe into anomalous flood control projects.

While manufacturers remain optimistic about a recovery over the next 12 months, Ms. Pan warned that the recent earthquake could be a “big factor” and could weigh on output in the coming months.

“Cebu is a manufacturing hub as well, and electronics sector has been a key sector over there. That could actually dampen the picture going forward based on initial potential assessment here,” she said, but will depend on the extent of infrastructure damage in the region. – Aubrey Rose A. Inosante, Reporter

BSP sees September inflation at 1.5%-2.3%

BSP sees September inflation at 1.5%-2.3%

Philippine inflation may have settled between 1.5% and 2.3% in September, amid higher prices of rice, fish and fuel, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said.

At the lower end of the BSP’s forecast range, the headline inflation rate may have steadied month on month at 1.5%, the same as in August.

Inflation could have also picked up from the 1.9% print in September 2024.

The September print might also mark the first time in six months that the consumer price index (CPI) would have settled within the BSP’s 2-4% target range or since the 2.1% in February.

“Upward price pressures for the month are likely to arise from higher prices of rice and fish,” the central bank said in a statement on Wednesday. “Elevated domestic fuel costs likewise contribute to upside price pressures for the month.”

In August, rice inflation declined at a faster pace of -17% from -15.9% in July. Earlier, National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa said that this might be the lowest for rice inflation this year.

Rice prices may have picked up in September, reflecting supply disruptions caused by bad weather and the 60-day ban on rice imports. The 60-day suspension on regular milled and well-milled rice imports took effect on Sept. 1.

At the same time, the BSP said lower costs of vegetables, meat and electricity may have partially tempered inflation in September.

Last month, the Manila Electric Co. lowered the overall electricity rate by PHP 0.1852 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) to PHP 13.0851 per kWh this month from PHP 13.2703 per kWh in August.

“Going forward, the BSP will continue to monitor evolving domestic and international developments affecting the outlook for inflation and growth in line with its data-dependent approach to monetary policy formulation,” it said.

In a separate commentary on Wednesday, Aris D. Dacanay, HSBC economist for ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) said inflation concerns, particularly on food, must be “on the table” in the Monetary Board’s next policy meeting.

“Accelerating to 2.7% y-o-y (from 2.3%), core inflation surprised to the upside in August, while inflationary pressures will likely persist from now until October as typhoons Ragasa (Nando) and Bualoi (Opong) likely took a toll on food supply,” he said.

Mr. Dacanay added that the extension of the rice import ban will add to the potential supply shock caused by typhoons.

However, he noted that the Monetary Board may be more cautious amid the peso’s weak performance against the United States’ dollar.

On Tuesday, the peso closed at PHP 58.196 against the dollar, its weakest in two months or since the PHP 58.32 per dollar seen on July 31.

HSBC expects the BSP to keep the benchmark rate at 5% at its next policy-setting meeting on Oct. 9.

“We think there is limited data to conclude with conviction that, indeed, the economy is slowing down,” Mr. Dacanay said. “While consumer vehicle purchases (are) falling and government capital spending (is) tightening, goods exports are still holding up.”

In August, the BSP trimmed its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) for a third-straight meeting, bringing the rate to 5%. Since August last year, it has lowered borrowing costs by a total of 150 bps.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier said they could deliver a cut this month if the data show a slowdown in the economy. However, he noted at the Aug. 28 policy-setting meeting that the easing cycle is nearly over.

The Monetary Board has two policy-setting meetings left this year, on Oct. 9 and Dec. 11. — Katherine K. Chan

IMF trims Philippine growth outlook

IMF trims Philippine growth outlook

Philippine economic growth is expected to moderate this year and in 2026 amid ongoing trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions across the globe, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.

The IMF trimmed its Philippine growth forecast to 5.4% for this year, slightly lower than its 5.5% projection in July.

If realized, gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be at the low end of the National Government’s 5.5-6.5% target band this year.

For 2026, the IMF also cut its growth forecast to 5.7% from 5.9% previously. However, this is below the government’s 6-7% target for next year.

The IMF said the economy is expected to remain resilient, but downside risks warrant “close attention.”

“Risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside. The main external risks stem from prolonged global trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and disruptive financial market corrections,” IMF Mission Head Elif Arbatli Saxegaard said at a briefing after the conclusion of the 2025 Article IV Consultation with the Philippines on Wednesday.

“On the domestic front, more frequent and intense climate shocks would cause notable macroeconomic losses. On the upside, accelerated implementation of structural and governance reforms would support investor confidence and the fiscal multiplier and raise potential growth. Risks around inflation are broadly balanced.”

Ms. Saxegaard said the growth outlook was revised to reflect the weaker-than-expected growth in the first half.

For the first half, GDP growth averaged 5.4%, slower than the 6.2% a year ago.

Ms. Saxegaard said growth will be affected by the higher tariffs imposed by the US on Philippine goods. The US began imposing a 19% tariff on goods from the Philippines on Aug. 7.

“It will weigh on exports and investment,” she said.

She also noted growth will be “supported by monetary easing and recent legislative measures to promote private investment.”

Meanwhile, the IMF sees inflation averaging 1.6% this year, before picking up to 2.6% next year.

“The pickup in inflation is expected to be driven by (the) food and transport crisis,” Ms. Saxegaard said. “And that reflects essentially the decline in negative base effects that have been dragging down inflation this year. So, as those base effects recede, we expect a pickup.”

She said core inflation is expected to “remain muted” at 2.5% in 2026.

“The BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) has room for a slightly more accommodative stance to help bring inflation back to the target faster and reduce economic slack amid elevated downside risks to growth,” Ms. Saxegaard said. “Policy will need to remain data dependent amidst prevailing uncertainties around the output gap and the neutral rate, and two-sided risks to inflation.”

On Aug. 28, the central bank slashed its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) for a third consecutive time to 5%. It has cut the benchmark by a total of 150 bps since August last year.

Corruption

Asked about recent corruption scandals involving some government projects, Ms. Saxegaard said the IMF will continue to monitor the developments.

“It’s not yet clear whether and how these allegations will impact investor and private sector confidence, as well as their perceptions and behavior,” she said.

The IMF welcomed recent reforms to reduce infrastructure gaps and promote foreign direct investment, but effective implementation is key.

“Enhancing fiscal governance and the rule of law and reducing corruption vulnerabilities are critical for inclusive and sustainable growth,” Ms. Saxegaard said.

The IMF urged the Philippine government to continue implementing gradual fiscal consolidation “to replenish fiscal buffers and support external balance.”

“The authorities should consider implementing concrete and durable tax measures to limit the need for restraint in priority spending which tends to have a larger impact on growth and disproportionately impacts the vulnerable,” she said.

Ms. Saxegaard suggested several tax measures including monitoring the cost of tax incentives and improving the efficiency of the value-added tax (VAT).

“On the tax administration side, better or enhanced use of data analytics and compliance risk management would, in our view, help support revenue mobilization,” she said. “On tax policy options, there are several measures that would have positive benefits. We do think that also monitoring the cost of tax incentives would be desirable as well as enhancing the efficiency of the VAT.”

Meanwhile, Ms. Saxegaard said that risks to the country’s financial system remain moderate as the banking sector has strong capital and liquidity buffers.

“Nonetheless, vulnerabilities in the real estate sector, strong bank interconnectedness with complex conglomerate structures, and fast-growing consumer credit warrant close monitoring,” she added.

The IMF Staff Report will be released between November and early December this year. — Katherine K. Chan

BSP sees wider BoP, current account deficits until 2026

BSP sees wider BoP, current account deficits until 2026

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) revised its balance of payments (BoP) and current account projections for this year and 2026, as global uncertainties persist.

“The balance of payments is projected to remain in deficit over the next two years, driven by sustained pressures on the current account,” the BSP said in a statement on Wednesday.

The central bank said the overall BoP position is expected to end the year at a USD 6.9-billion deficit or -1.4% of gross domestic product (GDP), wider than its earlier forecast of a USD 6.3-billion deficit or -1.3% of GDP.

For 2026, the central bank expects the BoP deficit to widen to USD 3.4 billion or -0.6% of GDP from the previous projection of USD 2.8 billion or -0.5% of GDP.

In the first eight months, the Philippines’ BoP position swung to a USD 5.397-billion deficit, a reversal from the USD 1.592-billion surplus seen in the same period in 2024.

At the same time, the BSP now sees the current account deficit widening to USD 16.4 billion or -3.3% of GDP this year, from its previous projection of USD 16.3 billion or -3.3% of GDP.

For 2026, it expects a wider current account deficit of USD 15.5 billion or -2.9% of GDP from its previous projection of USD 13.6 billion or -2.5% of GDP.

“The current account shortfall is expected to stay at around 3% of GDP in 2025 and 2026. These reflect a widening trade-in-goods gap, subdued services receipts, and restrained capital inflows amid global uncertainty and shifting trade policies,” the BSP said.

The central bank also expects goods exports and imports to remain sluggish in the next two years, mainly due to “softening global demand, easing commodity prices, and tempered domestic growth momentum.”

Goods exports are projected to grow by 1% this year, a turnaround from the -1% decline previously expected. For 2026, goods exports are seen to expand by 1%, lower than the previous projection of 2%.

On the other hand, the BSP maintained the goods imports forecast to 1% this year but trimmed the growth projection for 2026 to 1% from 2% previously.

“Infrastructure investments, potential trade diversion, and efforts to diversify export and import partners may help cushion external shocks,” the BSP said. “However, structural constraints, such as logistical inefficiencies, skills mismatches, and elevated input costs, continue to weigh on export competitiveness.”

For services exports such as business process outsourcing (BPO) and tourism, the BSP sees slower growth for this year and next year “as the sector contends with uncertainties surrounding US reshoring policies and weakening inbound travel.”

It slashed services exports growth forecasts to 2% this year from 6% previously; and to 5% in 2026 from 8% previously.

However, the central bank retained its growth forecast for BPO revenues at 5% this year and for 2026.

The BSP cut growth projections for travel receipts this year to 1% from 10% previously. For next year, travel receipt growth is seen at 3% in 2026 from 11% previously.

For services imports, the BSP kept its 6% growth forecast for this year, but cut its 2026 forecast to 6% from 7% previously.

The BSP expects remittances to grow by 3% this year, a tad faster than its 2.8% previous forecast. It kept its forecast at 3% for 2026.

“Overseas Filipino remittances are expected to remain a resilient source of external support, underpinned by strong global labor demand and sustained confidence in formal transfer channels, despite the impending US tax on remittances,” it said.

On the other hand, foreign investment inflows may slightly soften amid “heightened global financial volatility and cautious investor behavior.”

“However, recent policy reforms — including amendments to the Investors’ Lease Act — are poised to improve the investment climate,” the BSP said.

Financial account outflows this year could hit USD 13.4 billion, slightly higher than the previous forecast of USD 12.9 billion. These outflows are expected to hit USD 14.4 billion next year, higher than the previous USD 13.2-billion forecast.

The central bank retained its forecasts for foreign direct investments (FDI) net inflows at USD 7.5 billion this year and USD 8 billion next year.

However, net inflows of foreign portfolio investments are projected to reach USD 6.2 billion by end-2025, slightly lower than the USD 6.8-billion previous projection. The BSP kept its forecast for 2026 at USD 5 billion.

Meanwhile, gross international reserves (GIR) are expected to hit USD 105 billion this year, a tad higher than the previous forecast of USD 104 billion. For 2026, the GIR is projected to reach USD 106 billion, slightly higher than the previous forecast of USD 105 billion.

“Gross international reserves are expected to remain adequate, providing a robust buffer against external liquidity needs even as global market conditions evolve,” the central bank said.

The BSP said it will continue to monitor emerging risks that might impact the external sector.

In a separate report, Bank of America (BofA) Global Research said the Philippines is the only country in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) whose current account balance has been showing “a steady trend of wider deficits.”

“Despite the growing headwinds from external trade, current account balances across the region have remained in a manageable state, with only Philippines showing a steady trend of wider deficits, while other economies in the region remain rangebound,” it said.

In terms of goods balances, BofA identified the Philippines as an “underperformer,” alongside Malaysia.

“Within ASEAN, goods balances are the biggest driver of current account balances, with again Malaysia and Philippines being the underperformers, while Vietnam and Indonesia showing a trend of steady improvement,” it said.

Meanwhile, BofA said the Philippines’ information technology (IT) service revenues may partly offset the country’s goods deficit.

It also noted that remittances growth has lagged behind nominal growth.

“The relative importance of remittances and primary transfers in current account balances is slowly declining, as remittances growth, especially in the Philippines has consistently run behind nominal growth, and for other economies, has been mixed,” BofA said. — Katherine K. Chan

Peso rebounds as dollar weakens due to US government shutdown

Peso rebounds as dollar weakens due to US government shutdown

The peso rebounded on Wednesday as the dollar was hit by the US government’s shutdown.

The local unit closed at PHP 58.12 versus the greenback, rising by 7.6 centavos from its PHP 58.196 finish on Tuesday, Bankers Association of the Philippines data showed.

The peso opened Wednesday’s session sharply weaker at PHP 58.40 versus the dollar, which was also its worst showing for the day. Meanwhile, its intraday best was at PHP 58.08 against the greenback.

Dollars exchanged went up to USD 1.72 billion on Wednesday from USD 1.69 billion on Tuesday.

The peso strengthened as the dollar was dragged by the US government’s shutdown after lawmakers failed to pass a spending plan, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

The dollar sank to a one-week low against major currencies on Wednesday as a US government shutdown unsettled markets and threatened to delay key jobs data, seen as crucial for Federal Reserve policy decisions, Reuters reported.

The shutdown commenced hours after the Senate rejected a short-term spending measure that would have kept government operations afloat through Nov. 21.

Senate Republican Leader John Thune said the chamber would vote again on the House-passed measure on Wednesday. The Senate was due to convene at 1400 GMT.

The dollar index, which tracks the US currency against six major peers, slipped 0.2%. The price action across the broader markets bore a few hallmarks of safe-haven buying, giving low-yielding currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc a bid, while US Treasuries and gold held firm.

The dollar was down 0.5% against the yen, around its weakest in two weeks, while losing around 0.2% against the Swiss franc, another traditional safe haven.

US President Donald J. Trump warned congressional Democrats on Tuesday that letting the federal government shut down would allow his administration to take “irreversible” actions including closing program important to them.

The US Labor and Commerce departments said their statistics agencies would halt data releases in the event of a partial shutdown. That includes Friday’s scheduled nonfarm payrolls release, considered key in determining whether a Fed rate cut is likely at the end of this month.

On Tuesday, a mixed reading for the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, pressured the dollar. The report showed US job openings increased marginally in August while hiring declined, consistent with a softening labor market.

In the absence of official data, more emphasis will fall on private-sector economic indicators. The ADP employment report was due later on Wednesday.

A trader said in an e-mail that the peso’s rise was also supported by expectations of a “potentially downbeat” private payrolls report from ADP.

For Thursday, the trader said the peso could move between P57.95 and P58.20 per dollar, while Mr. Ricafort said it could range from PHP 58 to PHP 58.25. — Aaron Michael C. Sy with Reuters

Bargain hunting lifts PSEi back to 6,000 level

Bargain hunting lifts PSEi back to 6,000 level

Philippine shares rebounded on Wednesday as investors took advantage of lower prices following the market’s seven-day losing run.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) jumped by 1.21% or 72.57 points to close at 6,026.03, while the broader all shares index rose by 0.93% or 33.83 points to end at 3,654.62.

“The PSEi climbed back above the 6,000 mark, breaking its red streak as bargain hunters drove today’s trading session. Investors seized the opportunity to accumulate stocks at cheaper levels after the sharp declines over the past week.” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message.

“The index reclaimed the 6,000 level, with bargain hunting fueling a rebound after seven consecutive days of decline,” AP Securities, Inc. said in a note.

The PSEi hit multi-month lows in the last few sessions as worries over domestic corruption issues and a lack of strong trading drivers caused sentiment to weaken.

“The market still needs stronger catalysts for a sustainable reversal of the prevailing downtrend,” Mr. Limlingan said.

He added that gains on Wall Street overnight also supported market sentiment.

“US equities finished the quarter on a solid note, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite advancing on the back of renewed interest in technology heavyweights. Investors focused on corporate momentum and the potential for future monetary easing.”

However, on Wednesday, Wall Street futures fell, gold struck a record high and the dollar eased as the US government shut down much of its operations, possibly delaying the release of crucial jobs data that could muddy the interest rate outlook, Reuters reported.

With no clear path out of the impasse over a funding deal, agencies warned the government shutdown would halt the release of a closely watched September employment report and lead to the furlough of 750,000 federal workers at a daily cost of $400 million.

Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.5% on Wednesday.

Back home, all sectoral indices closed in the green on Wednesday. Mining & oil jumped by 3.18% or 409.17 points to 13,246.67; services surged by 1.91% or 41.25 points to 2,193.64; industrials rose by 1.19% or 104.65 points to 8,882.30; property increased by 1.08% or 24.60 points to 2,302.79; financials climbed by 0.93% or 19.23 points to 2,072.77; and holding firms went up by 0.6% or 29.72 points to 4,910.45.

Value turnover went down to PHP 6.8 billion on Wednesday with 2.46 billion shares traded from Tuesday’s PHP 9.09 billion with 1.57 billion shares changing hands.

Market breadth was positive as advancers outnumbered decliners, 99 to 87, while 50 names closed unchanged.

Net foreign selling went down to PHP 1.03 billion on Wednesday from PHP 2.01 billion on Tuesday. — Alexandria Grace C. Magno with Reuters

NG outstanding debt slips to PHP 17.47T at end-August

NG outstanding debt slips to PHP 17.47T at end-August

The national government’s (NG) outstanding debt slipped to PHP 17.47 trillion at the end of August, but still remained above the full-year projection, data from the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) showed.

The latest data from the Treasury showed outstanding debt dipped by 0.5% in August from the record-high PHP 17.56 trillion at end-July. 

Despite the decline, the debt level is still 0.63% higher than the projected year-end level of PHP 17.36 trillion.

National Government Outstanding Debt

Year on year, NG debt jumped by 12.3% from PHP 15.55 trillion at the end of August 2024, the BTr said.

“This (debt reduction) was mainly due to the government’s full repayment of its biggest local bond for the year, worth PHP 516.34 billion, and a stronger peso, which reduced the value of the country’s external debt,” the BTr said. 

NG debt is the total amount owed by the Philippine government to creditors such as international financial institutions, development partner-countries, banks, global bondholders and other investors.

In August, the bulk or 69.2% of the debt stock came from domestic sources, while external obligations made up the rest.

“The debt reduction was accompanied by an improvement in the country’s debt profile as the share of domestic debt to total borrowings increased to 69.2% from 68.9% in the previous month,” the BTr said.

A larger share of domestic borrowings in the country’s debt profile reflects “a generally more favorable debt position” as local debt is less vulnerable to shifts in foreign exchange movements, it added.

Domestic debt, which was composed of government securities, slid by 0.2% to PHP 12.09 trillion as of end-August from PHP 12.11 trillion as of end-July. It also rose by 12% annually from PHP 10.79 trillion in August last year.

This was already 0.35% higher than the PHP 12.04-trillion year-end domestic debt projection.

“Year to date, the NG raised PHP 1.84 trillion in gross domestic financing, including the highly successful issuance of Retail Treasury Bond Tranche 31 (RTB-31),” the BTr said.

On the other hand, external debt fell by 1.4% to PHP 5.38 trillion in August from PHP 5.46 trillion in the previous month. This also exceeded the PHP 5.32-trillion external debt projection this year by 1.24%.

“The reduction was attributed primarily to the effect of a stronger peso on external guarantees. Guaranteed obligations remained well-managed at only 2% of total NG debt,” the Treasury said.

Year on year, foreign debt climbed by 13.1% from PHP 4.76 trillion.

Foreign debt was composed mainly of PHP 2.74 trillion in global bonds and PHP 2.64 trillion in loans.

External debt securities were made up of PHP 2.32 trillion in US dollar bonds, PHP 253.39 billion in euro bonds, PHP 58.5 billion in Japanese yen bonds, PHP 57.04 billion in Islamic certificates and PHP 54.77 billion in peso global bonds.

For August, NG-guaranteed obligations slipped by 1.8% to PHP 346.46 billion from the end-July level of PHP 352.97 billion.

Year on year, it fell by 5.5% from PHP 366.57 billion.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort attributed the minimal monthly decline in outstanding debt to the net payments of large debt maturities.

“This is somewhat expected for large debt maturities paid to reduce outstanding debt but offset by new NG borrowings to finance the NG budget deficit,” he said in a Viber message.

In August, the BTr raised P507.16 billion through its RTB offering.

Mr. Ricafort warned that total outstanding debt may breach the government’s PHP 17.36-trillion projection by yearend, citing upcoming payments for maturing securities in September.

“(It) could still go up after payment of large NG debt maturities until September 2025,” Mr. Ricafort said.

John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said the modest decline in debt may be temporary, citing scheduled repayments and favorable foreign exchange movements.

Mr. Rivera noted that NG debt remains 12.3% higher year on year and is likely to climb further, “likely staying above” PHP 17.4 trillion by yearend.

At the end of the second quarter, NG debt as a share of gross domestic product surged to 63.1%, the highest since 2005.

The Department of Finance  expects the NG debt-to-GDP ratio to ease to 61.3% by end-2025 and eventually fall to 58% by 2030. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

ADB cuts Philippine growth forecast for 2026, warns corruption is a ‘heightened risk’

ADB cuts Philippine growth forecast for 2026, warns corruption is a ‘heightened risk’

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has trimmed its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines for 2026, while keeping its projection this year, citing persistent external headwinds that weigh on investments.

At the same time, the ADB warned widespread corruption can impact economic growth and investor sentiment, saying it is a “heightened risk.”

In its latest Asian Development Outlook, the multilateral lender trimmed its Philippine growth forecast to 5.7% in 2026 from 5.8% in its July projection. This is below the Philippine government’s 6-7% growth goal for 2026.

For this year, the ADB kept its growth forecast unchanged at 5.6%, which is within the government’s 5.5 to 6.5% target.

“The Philippines’ growth outlook remains resilient amid a global environment of shifting trade and investment policies and heightened geopolitical uncertainties,” ADB Country Director for the Philippines Andrew Jeffries said in a statement on Tuesday.

“Though these uncertainties pose increased risk, we see strong domestic demand anchoring growth, with sustained investments and an accommodative monetary policy supporting the economy’s expansion.”

ADB Senior Country Economist for the Philippines Jacqueline Connell said the Philippine growth forecast for 2026 was downgraded mainly due to heightened uncertainty, shifting trade and investment policies, and lower growth outlook in major advanced economies.

“We see that this will weigh on trade and investment prospects, so that’s the main reason,” she said at a briefing on Tuesday.

Despite external challenges, domestic demand is expected to drive the Philippine economy’s growth this year, the ADB said. This is supported by easing monetary conditions which will help offset the impact of external uncertainties, it added.

In Southeast Asia, the Philippines is projected to be the second-fastest-growing economy until 2026, just behind Vietnam (6%).

It is ahead of Cambodia (5%), Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.2%), Lao PDR (3.8%), Timor Leste (3.4%), Myanmar (2%),  Thailand (1.6%),  Brunei Darussalam (1.5%), and Singapore (1.4%).

The Philippines’ growth forecast is also above the ADB’s projection for developing Asia, which is expected to grow 4.5% in 2026 and 4.8% this year. The region includes 46 Asia-Pacific countries, but excludes Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

“Heightened geopolitical tensions, adverse weather conditions, and climate shocks also pose risks which could drive commodity prices higher,” ADB Senior Economics Officer Teresa B. Mendoza said.

At the same time, the ADB sees headline inflation averaging 1.8% this year and 3.2% in 2026. This is slightly higher than the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 1.7% average forecast for 2025 but lower than 3.3% for next year.

Ms. Mendoza said monetary policy will likely remain accommodative as inflation remains moderate.

For the first eight months, headline inflation averaged 1.7%.

Since August 2024, the BSP has lowered borrowing costs by a total of 150 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate to 5%.

“Continued investment and leveraging on wide-reaching structural reforms that we have seen over the past few years up to this year are essential to lifting growth, generating quality jobs, and reducing productivity and demand,” Ms. Mendoza said.

She cited new laws such as the Accelerated and Reformed Right-of-Way (ARROW) Act that will help speed up infrastructure projects.

Corruption

Meanwhile, corruption remains a “heightened risk” in the Philippines, according to the ADB.

“More broadly, corruption has broad impacts on economic growth in general and investment sentiment. We’re monitoring that and how that may be affected going forward,” Mr. Jeffries said, when asked why there was no mention of governance issues despite a widening corruption scandal involving government projects.

There is growing scrutiny of billions of pesos in flood control projects, with multiple congressional committees and the Palace-backed Independent Commission for Infrastructure probing allegations of corruption.

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto earlier said corruption related to flood control projects had cost the Philippines PHP 42.3 billion to PHP 118.5 billion in economic losses annually since 2023.

Mr. Jeffries said there was no reason to cut the Philippine GDP projections due to the corruption scandal. “Between now and our December update, there may be more quantifiable data available that may alter our projections,” he added.

He also assured that the ADB’s partnership with the Philippines remains unaffected.

“We have very strong due diligence on the financial management capabilities of our borrowers and any gaps found are built into the project to mitigate financial management risks,” he added.

Mr. Jeffries said the bank has a joint agreement with the World Bank Group to cross-debar contractors found to have violated project guidelines or engaged in questionable conduct.

“If we find such contractors through our project processes, we debar them from future participation for a certain amount of time. The World Bank follows suit and vice versa,” he said.

While the ADB does not maintain a formal blacklist, Mr. Jeffries said all contractors are vetted against debarment lists and flagged for potential links to money laundering or other financial risks.

“Now that said, if there is an officially sanctioned government blacklist, we would honor such a list and take that into account. But it would need to be officially sanctioned and not just a list of firms in the press, so to speak,” he added.

There are 25 Infrastructure Flagship Projects funded by the ADB in support of the Marcos administration’s “Build Better More” Program. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante, Reporter

Peso continues to depreciate vs dollar

Peso continues to depreciate vs dollar

The peso continued to depreciate against the dollar on Tuesday to log a new two-month low, with market sentiment remaining negative due to concerns over corruption involving state infrastructure projects and a potential US government shutdown.

The local unit dropped by 5.1 centavos to close at PHP 58.196 versus the greenback from its PHP 58.145 finish on Monday, Bankers Association of the Philippines data showed.

This was its weakest close in two months or since its PHP 58.32-per-dollar finish on July 31.

The peso opened Tuesday’s session stronger at PHP 58.05 versus the dollar. It climbed to a high of PHP 58.03, while its worst showing was at PHP 58.37 against the greenback.

Dollars exchanged increased to USD 1.69 billion on Tuesday from USD 1.47 billion on Monday.

“The dollar-peso remained relatively weak due to the ongoing investigation on alleged corruption in the Philippine government,” the first trader said in a phone interview.

The government is currently investigating alleged corruption in state infrastructure projects, with some lawmakers and Public Works department officials being accused of receiving payoffs.

“The peso continued to weaken on market concerns from the looming US government shutdown as Republican and Democrat congressmen still failed to reach a budget bill,” the second trader said in an e-mail.

For Wednesday, the first trader expects the peso to move between PHP 57.90 and PHP 58.30 per dollar, while the second trader said it could range PHP 58.10 to PHP 58.35.

The US dollar held steady on Tuesday ahead of a possible US government shutdown that could disrupt the release of the monthly jobs report this week, Reuters reported.

Government funding was set to expire at midnight on Tuesday (0400 GMT) unless Republicans and Democrats agree to a last-minute temporary spending deal.

The dollar index, which has already fallen nearly 10% this year, was last down 0.1% on the day at 97.785. — A.M.C. Sy with Reuters

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