Philippine remittances slip to six-month low in November

Money sent home by overseas Filipino workers (OFW) fell to its lowest level in six months in November, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported.

Preliminary central bank data released on Thursday showed that cash remittances coursed through banks rose by 3.6% to USD 2.91 billion from USD 2.808 billion in the same month in 2024.

This was the lowest remittance level recorded in six months or since the USD 2.658 billion in May.

In terms of growth, November marked the fastest pace in two months or since the 3.7% in September.

Meanwhile, remittances declined by 8.2% from USD 3.171 billion in October.

“November’s dip is really just a timing story,” Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said in a Viber message. “A lot of the holiday money was already sent in October, which is why we saw that month heavy with remittances — partly due to pre‑holiday transfers and even typhoon‑related aid being front‑loaded.”

Mr. Ravelas noted that the month-on-month dip was not a “red flag” as it is a usual trend seen before remittances surge in December.

In November, land-based OFWs sent home the bulk of cash remittances, which went up by 3.6% year on year to USD 2.303 billion.

Remittances from sea-based workers likewise grew by an annual 3.6% to USD 606.592 million in November.

BSP data also showed that personal remittances, which include both cash coursed through banks and informal channels and in-kind remittances, rose by 3.6% to USD 3.235 billion in November from USD 3.121 billion in the previous year.

Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. Chief Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said movements in the foreign exchange market likely drove the annual growth in remittances.

In November, the peso touched the PHP 59-per-dollar level several times. It even closed at PHP 59.17 against the greenback on Nov. 12, breaking the previous record of PHP 59.13 seen on Oct. 28.

“Despite this development, remittances proved to be a solid and reliable source of FX (foreign exchange) while also translating into healthy purchasing power that likely helped drive holiday spending,” Mr. Mapa said in a Viber message.

11-month climb

As of November, cash remittances from migrant Filipinos reached USD 32.111 billion, climbing by 3.2% from USD 31.113 billion during the same period in 2024.

Remittances from land-based workers grew by 3.3% year on year to USD 25.66 billion as of end-November, while sea-based OFW remittances rose by 2.8% to USD 6.45 billion.

On the other hand, personal remittances in the 11-month period stood at USD 35.727 billion, up by 3.2% from USD 34.608 billion at end-November 2024.

“The United States remained the top source of remittances to the Philippines during January-November 2025, followed by Singapore and Saudi Arabia,” the BSP said in a statement.

Based on BSP data, money sent home from the US accounted for 40% of the remittances in the 11 months to November.

Inflows from Singapore made up 7.1% of the total remittances, followed by Saudi Arabia (6.4%), Japan (5%), the United Kingdom (4.6%), the United Arab Emirates (4.6%), Canada (3.5%), Qatar (2.9%), Taiwan (2.8%) and South Korea (2.4%).

The US was the top source of land-based remittances at end-November with 41.9% of total remittances. The rest came from Saudi Arabia (8%), Singapore (6.4%), the United Arab Emirates (5.7%) and the UK (4.5%).

Meanwhile, 32.2% of the remittances from sea-based workers were from the US, followed by Singapore (10.2%), Japan (7.1%), Germany (5.5%) and the UK (5.4%).

The BSP expects cash remittances to grow by 3% to USD 35.5 billion this year. —Katherine K. Chan, Reporter

Job shortage tops worries of Philippine business leaders — WEF

A shortage of jobs is emerging as the biggest worry for Philippine business leaders, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF), a sign that economic growth risks falling short of what’s needed to absorb workers over the next two years.

Philippine executives ranked weak public services and social protection as their second concern in the WEF’s 2026 Global Risks Report, with respondents pointing to shortcomings in education, infrastructure and pension systems.

Business leaders also flagged the spread of misinformation and disinformation, unintended effects of artificial intelligence, and inflation as key threats to the economy.

Leonardo A. Lanzona, an economics professor at the Ateneo de Manila University, said the Philippine executives’ concern over jobs reflects the recent economic slowdown.

“As the economy screeches to a slowdown as a result of the decrease in government expenditures, aggregate demand decreases,” he said in a Messenger chat.

The lack of additional opportunities is also causing a number of businesses, particularly micro, small, and medium enterprises, to fail, Mr. Lanzona said.

“Consequently, this economic slowdown brings about significant unemployment,” he added.

In the first 11 months of 2025, the unemployment rate averaged 4.19% or equivalent to 2.25 million jobless Filipinos. This is higher than the 3.9% jobless rate, which is equivalent to 1.66 million in the same period in 2024.

“As most of the budget is eaten by debt, the situation is aggravated by lower social protection, political infighting, and a labor-saving technology such as AI (artificial intelligence) that can further reduce labor demand,” Mr. Lanzona said.

Meanwhile, the WEF report showed globally, the biggest risk over the next two years remained geoeconomic confrontation.

The WEF’s Global Risks Perception Survey captured insights from over 1,300 experts worldwide.

Other top risks cited by global business leaders included misinformation and disinformation, societal polarization, extreme weather events, and state-based armed conflict.

“Geoeconomic confrontation has emerged as the most severe risk over the next two years, while economic risks have experienced the sharpest rises among all risk categories over the two-year timeframe,” WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi said.

Rising inflation and potential asset worries rose as countries face high debt burdens and volatile markets amid growing concerns over an economic downturn, she said.

The WEF noted that 18% of surveyed participants identified geoeconomic confrontation as the top risk likely to trigger a material global crisis in 2026.

This was followed by state-based armed conflict (14%), extreme weather events (8%), societal polarization (7%), misinformation and disinformation (7%), and economic downturn (5%).

Meanwhile, over the next 10 years, survey participants expect extreme weather events to become even more severe. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

Peso slips to fresh record low on rate cut bets

The Philippine peso weakened to a new record low against the dollar on Thursday as markets priced in the possibility that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) could cut interest rates ahead of the US Federal Reserve.

The local currency closed at PHP 59.46 a dollar, down two centavos from Wednesday’s record-low finish of PHP 59.44, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed.

The peso opened Thursday’s session slightly stronger at PHP 59.43, touched an intraday high of PHP 59.35, and weakened to as low as PHP 59.47. Dollar trading volume rose to USD 1.079 billion, higher than the USD 951 million recorded the previous day.

“The dollar-peso closed higher on prospects of a narrowing interest rate differential, with the BSP expected to cut rates before the Fed,” a trader said by telephone.

Another trader said the peso continued to soften after recent US producer inflation and retail sales data underscored the resilience of the American economy, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep policy rates unchanged in the coming months.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said market expectations of a BSP rate cut at its February policy meeting also weighed on the peso.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said last week that a rate cut at the Monetary Board’s Feb. 19 meeting “remains on the table” but is “unlikely,” as the central bank is nearing the end of its easing cycle.

The BSP has reduced its benchmark rate by a total of 200 basis points since August 2024, bringing the policy rate to a more than three-year low of 4.5%.

Despite the peso’s weakness, the BSP sees no need for immediate intervention. Palace Press Officer Clarissa A. Castro said the central bank continues to closely monitor exchange-rate movements and is prepared to act if necessary.

“The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas continues to monitor the peso-dollar exchange rate so it can take appropriate action if needed,” she told a news briefing in Filipino. “For now, the central bank is confident that intervention is not required.”

She said the peso’s depreciation reflects global developments, including the strength of the US dollar driven by expectations on Fed policy and geopolitical tensions abroad.

The government is working to mitigate the impact of a weaker peso by slowing price increases, supporting investments, and strengthening key economic sectors, she added.

MUFG Global Markets Research Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan said the peso might remain more sensitive to oil price movements than some of its regional peers, although further oil price increases are not his base case scenario.

“Further oil price increases is not our base case, and we will look to see if the peso retraces some weakness on these recent oil price moves,” he said.

Traders said the peso could continue testing record lows until the BSP and Fed hold their respective policy meetings, unless the US central bank signals a shift toward rate cuts.

However, movements will remain data-dependent, particularly on US inflation and labor market indicators.

For Friday, the first trader sees the peso trading from PHP 59.20 to PHP 59.50 a dollar, while the second trader expects a range of PHP 59.25 to PHP 59.50.

Mr. Ricafort said the local currency could move from PHP 59.35 to PHP 59.55, noting that strong foreign exchange reserves and continued net foreign buying in the local stock market might help cushion further depreciation. — Aaron Michael C. Sy

Philippine shares rebound on World Bank forecast

Philippine stocks climbed back above the 6,400 level on Thursday, boosted by the World Bank’s growth forecast for 2026 and speculation that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) could trim interest rates.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) rose 1.52% or 97.72 points to 6,487.53, its strongest finish in six months. The broader all-share index gained 0.68% or 24.76 points to 3,660.7.

Foreign investors were net buyers, pumping PHP 1.31 billion into the market, up from PHP 291.46 million a day earlier.

“The local bourse surged on the back of a massive foreign buying spree after the World Bank forecast of a 5.3% GDP (gross domestic product) growth for fiscal year 2026 renewed investors’ confidence in buying the Philippine consumer growth story,” AP Securities, Inc. said in a market note.”

The World Bank expects the economy to expand 5.3% in 2026 — within the government’s 5-6% target — and 5.4% in 2027, below the 5.5-6.5% goal, citing governance challenges.

Investors also speculated that the BSP might cut rates at its Feb. 19 policy meeting, although Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. has said the benchmark is already “very close” to its desired level.

“Buying was supported by hopes that the BSP will go for another rate cut in their upcoming policy meeting, and that the local economy would eventually be able get back to its fast growth pace,” Philstocks Financial Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

Sector gains were broad-based. Services led the rally with a 2.01% gain, followed by property at 1.53%, financials at 1.44%, holding firms at 1.13% and industrials at 0.18%.

On the other hand, mining and oil fell 1.01%.

DigiPlus Interactive Corp. led index members, climbing 4.59% to PHP 16.40, while JG Summit Holdings, Inc. fell 1.34% to PHP 25.85 amid profit-taking.

Trading was active, with value turnover rising to PHP 7.3 billion from PHP 6.92 billion and 2.02 billion shares changing hands, compared with 1.86 billion on Wednesday.

Advancers outnumbered decliners 115 to 96, with 58 stocks unchanged.

Market analysts said foreign inflows and optimism over consumer spending were key drivers of the rebound.

“Broad-based buying prevailed in today’s session, which was mainly led by services and property, while mining and oil headed the opposite direction,” AP Securities said. — Alexandria Grace C. Magno

Peso slides to record low PHP 59.44 per USD

The Philippine peso slid to a record low of PHP 59.44 a dollar at Wednesday’s close, failing to sustain support seen late last year due to renewed demand for the greenback amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

The local currency weakened by 9.9 centavos from Tuesday’s 59.341 finish, according to Bankers Association of the Philippines data posted on its website. The close broke the previous record low of PHP 59.355 on Jan. 7.

The peso opened Wednesday’s trading session weaker at PHP 59.38 versus the dollar. Its intraday best was at PHP 59.35, while its worst showing was at PHP 59.45 against the greenback.

Dollars traded inched down to USD 951 million on Wednesday from USD 999.2 million on Tuesday.

Demand for the greenback persisted on Wednesday amid geopolitical concerns arising from the tariffs imposed by US President Donald J. Trump against Iran and its trading partners, a trader said by telephone.

The trader also cited increasing bets of fewer rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve this year.

This as the Trump administration threatened Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell with criminal indictment over his testimony before the US Senate regarding the renovation of the Fed’s headquarters in Washington, D.C.

The peso was also dragged by the local government’s reduction of its infrastructure spending target for the year, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

The Department of Budget and Management cut its infrastructure spending target to 4.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year from 5.1% previously following weaker government spending and economic growth last year due to the flood control scandal.

The lower target translates to about PHP 1.3 trillion in infrastructure outlays, Acting Budget Secretary Rolando U. Toledo said on Tuesday.

Mr. Ricafort noted that the peso moved within familiar ranges on Wednesday, signaling possible interventions from the central bank.

“So far, the signals have been consistent that [the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has] been on intervention in recent months and at least for more than three years already. So, these are familiar levels because the previous record high for more than three years was PHP 59,” he told Money Talks with Cathy Yang on One News on Wednesday.

AIA Investment Management Philippines Chief Executive Officer Angie L. Pacis said in the same program that the peso could test the P62 level due to growing interest rate differentials between the Philippines and the US.

“We’re actually of the camp that, for now, based on what we see, maybe the rate cut in February is actually iffy, simply because the BSP is already within their 2-4% [inflation] target range,” she said.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said last week that a rate cut at the Monetary Board’s Feb. 19 meeting “remains on the table” but was “unlikely.” He also noted that the BSP is nearing the end of their easing cycle.

The Monetary Board has delivered 200 basis points in reductions since August 2024, bringing the policy rate to an over three-year low of 4.5%.

For Thursday, the trader said the market players will await developments with Mr. Trump’s subpoenas against Mr. Powell.

The peso could also be weighed by US producer inflation data which are expected to remain high and could further fuel hawkish Fed expectations, the trader added. The data will be released overnight.

The trader sees the peso moving between PHP 59.20 and PHP 59.60 per dollar on Thursday, while Mr. Ricafort expects it to range from PHP 59.35 to PHP 59.55. — Aaron Michael C. Sy, Reporter

Philippine banks’ loan growth steadies in Nov.

Philippine banks’ loan growth held steady in November, preliminary data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.

Outstanding loans of universal and commercial banks, net of reverse repurchase agreements, grew by 10.3% year on year to PHP 13.988 trillion in November from PHP 12.676 trillion in the same month in 2024.

November’s growth rate matched the pace of October. October saw the slowest growth in bank lending since the 10.1% recorded in June 2024.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, bank lending expanded by 0.9% month on month.

“Outstanding loans from universal and commercial banks (U/KBs) to businesses and individual consumers expanded in November,” the central bank said in a statement released late on Tuesday.

“Preliminary data show that loans from U/KBs grew at a steady rate of 10.3% year on year in November,” it added.

BSP data showed that big banks’ outstanding loans to residents grew by an annual 10.7% to PHP 13.681 trillion in November, slightly easing from the 10.9% growth seen in the previous month.

On the other hand, loans to nonresidents fell by 4.5% year on year to PHP 307.253 billion from the 11.1% drop logged in October.

Banks’ loans to residents for production activities grew by 9% to PHP 11.789 trillion in November, slowing from 9.1% in the previous month.

This as lending for electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply sector jumped by 26.6%. Other segments that showed growth in lending include transportation and storage (12.7%); wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (11.6%); real estate activities (9%); information and communication (7%); and financial and insurance activities (3.5%).

Meanwhile, big banks’ consumer loans to residents — which account for credit card, motor vehicle, and general-purpose salary loans but exclude residential real estate loans — rose by 22.9% in November to PHP 1.892 trillion, slightly slower than the 23.1% growth in October.

Broken down, credit card loans jumped by 29.5% to PHP 1.158 trillion, picking up from the 29.2% growth in October, while lending growth for motor vehicles eased to 16.3% at P524.037 billion from 17.6% in the previous month.

On the other hand, loans for general-purpose salaries reached PHP 164.932 billion in November, climbing by 6.4%. This is a tad faster than 5.8% a month ago.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the consistent double-digit expansion in bank lending can help spur the local economy, especially after the sharp slowdown in the third quarter of 2025.

“Banks’ loan growth still at double-digit levels could still bode well as a leading indicator to the broader economic growth,” he said in a Viber message.

Mr. Ricafort noted that the 10.3% loan growth in November was mainly because of the fast growth in consumer loans, particularly credit card and motor vehicle loans, “amid the country’s favorable demographics.”

In the coming months, banks may see more demand for loans if the BSP lowers key borrowing costs and the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) further to match the Federal Reserve’s moves.

“Loan growth could continue to sustain at double-digit growth levels if the Fed cuts rates further in the coming months that could be matched by the BSP, alongside possible cut/s in local banks’ RRR, all of which could further reduce borrowing costs that could spur greater demand for loans or credit and help boost investments and overall economic growth,” Mr. Ricafort said.

The Monetary Board has so far slashed the benchmark policy rate by a total of 200 bps since August 2024, bringing it to its lowest in over three years at 4.5%.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. left the door open for another 25-bp cut at its first meeting this year on Feb. 19, though noted that the current easing cycle is nearing its end as the current policy rate is approaching their neutral rate.

On the other hand, the Fed has so far delivered 175 bps in cuts since September 2024, bringing its key policy rate to the 3.5%-3.75% range. It is scheduled to have its first meeting this year on Jan. 27-28.

Money supply

Meanwhile, separate BSP data showed that domestic liquidity (M3) rose by 7.6% year on year to PHP 19.439 trillion in November from PHP 18.071 trillion. This was slower than the 8.3% climb in October.

M3 is considered as the broadest measure of liquidity in an economy.

The country’s money supply expanded by 1.2% month on month on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Domestic claims, which include claims from private and government entities, jumped by an annual 10.6% year on year to PHP 21.984 trillion, picking up from the 10.5% growth in October.

This as higher borrowings boosted net claims on the central government by 11% to PHP 5.888 trillion. This was up from 10% growth a month earlier.

Meanwhile, claims on the private sector rose by 11.1% to PHP 14.162 trillion, faster than the 11% the previous month, amid “continued expansion in bank lending to non-financial private corporations and households.”

Claims on a sector refer to that sector’s liabilities to depository corporations such as banks and the central bank.

Central bank data also showed net foreign assets (NFA) in peso terms climbed by 4.4% in November versus the 2.1% expansion in October.

“NFAs of the BSP increased by 1.9%,” the BSP said. “Similarly, NFAs of banks grew primarily on account of lower foreign currency-denominated bills payable.”

Broken down, the central bank’s NFAs grew by 1.9% year on year, a turnaround from the 0.4% decline in October, while banks’ NFA climbed by 26.9%, slightly faster than the 26.3% the previous month.

NFAs reflect the difference between depository corporations’ claims and liabilities to nonresidents.

“The BSP monitors bank loans because they are a key transmission channel of monetary policy,” the central bank said. “Looking ahead, the BSP will ensure that domestic liquidity and bank lending conditions remain aligned with its price and financial stability objectives.” — Katherine K. Chan

Philippine stocks extend slide as peso hits record low

Philippine shares fell for a second session on Wednesday after the peso slid to a record low, weighing on investor sentiment.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index dropped 0.29% to 6,389.81, while the broader all-share index slipped 0.06% to 3,635.94.

Late selling pulled the market lower, with sentiment pressured by the peso’s weakness and higher global oil prices amid tensions in Iran, Philstocks Financial, Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said.

“The peso’s weakness also weighed on the bourse,” he said in a Viber message.

The local currency closed at PHP 59.44 a dollar, down 9.9 centavos from its previous finish, according to Bankers Association of the Philippines data. This marked its weakest close on record, surpassing the PHP 59.355 logged on Jan. 7.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the decline reflected mild profit-taking after recent gains, following the government’s decision to trim its infrastructure spending target.

The Department of Budget and Management lowered the infrastructure spending goal to 4.3% of gross domestic product this year from 5.1%, citing the need for more cautious disbursement after a corruption scandal weighed on spending and growth last year.

Acting Budget Secretary Rolando U. Toledo said the revised target translates to about PHP 1.3 trillion.

Despite Wednesday’s dip, Mr. Ricafort said the index remains at its highest levels in more than five months, supported by gains since late December and continued foreign inflows.

Sectoral performance was mixed. Mining and oil stocks rose 1.81%, while holding firms gained 1.57% and industrials added 0.58%.

On the other hand, services fell 1.76%, while financials declined 1.2%.

JG Summit Holdings, Inc. led index gainers, climbing 4.8% to PHP 26.20. China Banking Corp. was the worst performer, sliding 3.72% to PHP 60.70.

Decliners beat advancers 97 to 95, with 71 stocks unchanged. Value turnover rose to PHP 6.92 billion, with 1.86 billion shares traded, compared with PHP 6.75 billion and 1.26 billion shares in the previous session.

Foreign investors remained net buyers, though inflows eased to PHP 291.46 million from PHP 506.15 million a day earlier.

Markets also tracked global developments, including softer US equities and higher oil prices, which added pressure on risk assets.

Analysts said the peso’s direction and policy signals from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas would remain key drivers in the near term. — Alexandria Grace C. Magno

Philippine FDI net inflows plunge nearly 40% in October

Net inflows of foreign direct investments (FDI) into the Philippines plunged nearly 40% year on year in October, as foreigners’ net investments in debt instruments slumped.

Based on preliminary Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) data, FDI net inflows declined by 39.8% to USD 642 million in October from USD 1.067 billion in the same month in 2024.

Despite this, October saw the highest monthly FDI level in three months or since the USD 1.271-billion net inflows posted in July.

Month on month, inflows more than doubled (100.6%) from the five-year low of USD 320 million in September.

“Foreign direct investments into the Philippines posted net inflows of USD 642 million in October 2025,” the BSP said in a statement released late on Monday. “Japan was the top source of FDIs, while corporations engaged in financial and insurance activities were the biggest recipients of FDIs during the month.”

The year-on-year decline came as nonresidents’ net investments in debt instruments plummeted by an annual 50.7% to USD 437 million from USD 888 million.

However, this was tempered by higher inflows recorded across other FDI components.

Investments in equity and investment fund shares jumped by 14.5% to USD 205 million in October 2025 from USD 179 million in the same month in the previous year.

Nonresidents’ net investments in equity capital, other than the reinvestment of earnings, jumped by 17.1% to USD 117 million in October from USD 100 million a year earlier.

Broken down, equity capital placements grew by 10.7% to USD 135 million in October from USD 122 million a year ago, while withdrawals dropped by 17.4% to USD 19 million from USD 23 million a year ago.

Meanwhile, reinvestment of earnings rose by 11.3% year on year to USD 88 million in October from USD 79 million a year ago.

HSBC economist for ASEAN Aris D. Dacanay noted that the annual drop indicated that the ongoing corruption scandal curbed FDI inflows, prompting investors to adopt a cautious “wait-and-see” stance.

“I think it does show that it is affected by the scandal,” he told a press briefing on Tuesday. “The dip in itself has led foreign investors to have this wait-and-see approach on what’s happening in the Philippines. So, I can’t say that it doesn’t (affect FDIs). What I have to say is that it won’t totally reverse it.”

Last year, a series of widespread flooding across the country exposed multiple anomalous flood control projects and embroiled Public Works officials, lawmakers and private contractors in corruption allegations.

Mr. Dacanay said the Philippines’ favorable demographics, tariff advantage and strong business process outsourcing sector will keep FDIs on track and could even help attract more investments into the country’s export-oriented industries.

On the other hand, Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said the October figures suggest that corporate financing decisions weighed more on foreign investments than political factors.

“Month on month, though, we bounced back simply because September was (at) a five‑year low — so October looked stronger as funding cycles normalized,” he said via Viber. “The flood control scandal added noise, but the data show the bigger driver was corporate financing decisions, not politics.”

10-month slide

Meanwhile, BSP data also showed that FDI net inflows fell by 24.5% to USD 6.179 billion as of October from USD 8.184 billion in the comparable year-ago period.

“Net foreign direct investments declined year on year for the month of October 2025 (-39.8%) and from January-October 2025 (-24.5%) amid external risk factors particularly Trump’s higher tariffs, trade wars (and) protectionist policies that slowed down the US and global economy,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

Nonresidents’ investments in equity and investment fund shares amounted to USD 2.11 billion in the 10 months to October, 14.5% lower than the USD 2.468 billion a year earlier.

Investments in equity capital, other than the reinvestment of earnings, slid by 29.8% to USD 1.022 billion during the period from USD 1.456 billion in the prior year.

This as placements dropped by 16.4% year on year to USD 1.599 billion as of October from USD 1.912 billion a year ago. On the other hand, withdrawals climbed 26.5% to USD 577 million from USD 456 million a year ago.

Most equity capital placements in the 10-month period came from Japan, the United States and Singapore.

“Industries that received most of these investments were manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and real estate,” the central bank said.

Meanwhile, nonresidents’ reinvestment of earnings increased by 7.6% to USD 1.088 billion as of October from USD 1.011 billion.

However, net investments in debt instruments dropped by 28.8% to USD 4.069 billion in the period ending October from USD 5.717 billion a year ago.

Mr. Ravelas said the BSP’s forecast of USD 7 billion in FDI net inflows by end-2025 remains within reach, especially if investments stabilize in the last two months of the year.

“What will help? Strong capital from Japan, the US, and Singapore, continued investments in manufacturing, retail, and real estate, and clearer governance signals that reassure investors. If we stay focused on stability and reforms, the Philippines can keep pulling in long‑term capital despite the noise,” he added.

FDIs account for foreign investors’ investments in local businesses where they hold at least a 10% equity capital, as well as investments by a nonresident subsidiary or associate in its resident direct investor. It can be in the form of equity capital, reinvestment of earnings or borrowings.

The BSP’s FDI data cover actual investment flows, compared to the Philippine Statistics Authority’s foreign investments data which include investment commitments that may not be fully realized in a given period. — Katherine K. Chan, Reporter

Philippines targets 4.3% of GDP for infrastructure spending this year

The Department of Budget and Management (DBM) cut its infrastructure spending target to 4.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year from 5.1% previously, as a corruption scandal weighed on government spending and economic growth last year.

The lower target translates to about PHP 1.3 trillion in infrastructure outlays, Acting Budget Secretary Rolando U. Toledo said on Tuesday, signaling a more cautious spending stance as the government works to restore confidence and streamline disbursements.

“Based on our approved General Appropriations Act, we’re looking at achieving our infrastructure target as [a percentage of our] GDP at 4.3%, and even at a nominal level, that is equivalent to PHP 1.3 trillion,” he told a Palace briefing in mixed English and Filipino.

Infrastructure spending has been a key pillar of President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s growth strategy, though execution slowed last year due to budget adjustments and project bottlenecks amid a massive graft scandal involving flood control projects.

The government had earlier set a target of 5.1% of GDP for infrastructure spending in 2026, equivalent to PHP 1.56 trillion, lower than the 2025 target of 5.3% of GDP or PHP 1.51 trillion.

In 2024, infrastructure spending accounted for 5.8% of GDP or PHP 1.545 trillion.

Mr. Toledo said the government is still determined to boost investments in infrastructure in the medium term.

He said there is little risk of delays in infrastructure projects this year, after a “clean” budget process.

“There is no reason for us to delay,” Mr. Toledo said, adding that the 2026 national budget contains no “ghost projects” and that allocations across programs are fully specified, supporting the government’s ability to meet its infrastructure goals.

Mr. Marcos on Jan. 5 signed a record PHP 6.793-trillion national budget amid a graft scandal, which has prompted tighter scrutiny of public spending and a more cautious approach to the release of funds for infrastructure and other major projects.

John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said slower public works spending may temper economic momentum because infrastructure has one of the highest multiplier effects in the economy.

“It may cap growth momentum, as public works have one of the highest multiplier effects in the economy,” he said via Viber.

“The more cautious stance may help restore governance credibility, but it also means less crowding-in of private investment, weaker job creation in construction and allied sectors, and slower productivity gains,” he added.

Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan last week said economic growth in the Philippines likely eased to between 4.8% and 5% in 2025, reflecting the impact of the graft scandal on the economy.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is set to publish official fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 GDP figures on Jan. 29.

Without faster execution, improved project selection, or stronger private investment to offset the slowdown, the Philippines’ economic growth could fall short of its potential even as confidence gradually improves, Mr. Rivera said.

Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said higher government spending — particularly on infrastructure — is likely to be the primary driver of economic growth in 2026.

He expects authorities to accelerate public works as early as the first quarter to make up for underspending last year, which he said was partly due to tighter anti-corruption measures and governance reforms.

A catch-up spending program could help bolster investor confidence and sentiment, Mr. Ricafort said, reinforcing the growth outlook.

He said prospective interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas would lower borrowing costs, supporting credit demand, investment and overall economic expansion. — Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter

Peso weakens further on geopolitical risks

The peso weakened further on Tuesday to end near its record low following fresh tariff threats from US President Donald J. Trump and rising political risk in Japan.

The local unit closed at PHP 59.341 versus the greenback, declining by 8.1 centavos from its PHP 59.26 finish on Monday, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines data showed.

This was its worst showing in nearly a week or since its all-time low close of PHP 59.355 per dollar recorded on Jan. 7.

The peso opened Tuesday’s trading session slightly weaker at PHP 59.28 versus the dollar. Its intraday best was at PHP 59.26, while it dropped to as low as PHP 59.36 against the greenback.

Dollars traded increased to USD 999.22 million from USD 887.3 million on Monday.

“The dollar-peso closed higher mainly due to geopolitical concerns after Trump said that any country that does business with Iran will get a 25% tariff,” a trader said in a phone interview.

The peso was also dragged by a weaker yen after signals from the camp of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on a possible snap election next month, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

For Wednesday, the trader said the peso could weaken further and even test the PHP 59.50 level as heightening geopolitical tensions may lead to safe-haven demand for the greenback.

For Wednesday, the trader expects the peso to move between PHP 59.10 and PHP 59.50 per dollar, while Mr. Ricafort sees it ranging from PHP 59.20 to PHP 59.40. — Aaron Michael C. Sy

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