DA expecting a combined 300,000 MT of rice imports in March, April

The Department of Agriculture (DA) said it expects rice import volumes to reach 150,000 metric tons (MT) per month in March and April, following consultations with rice traders and importers.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. said the projected shipments are lower than the usual monthly average of about 400,000 MT, after importers agreed to scale back inbound shipments for the domestic harvest season.

“It’s not an order. It’s a voluntary measure among the industry and the DA. We are working together for the welfare of rice farmers,” Mr. Laurel said at the PHP 20 rice program launch in San Juan City on Friday.

If realized, the combined 300,000-MT import volume for March and April would translate into a 65.5% decrease from 869,321 MT recorded in the same period last year.

Data from the Bureau of Plant Industry showed that from Jan. 1 to Feb. 5, rice arrivals reached 409,377 MT against an expected volume of 613,700 MT for the first two months of the year.

Rice imports in January alone totaled 375,983 MT, up 34.31% from 279,940 MT in the same month in 2025.

The DA earlier said import volumes this year will likely come in at between 3.6 million MT and 3.8 million MT, levels which the agency said are sufficient to meet demand without depressing farmgate prices for local farmers.

The department also recently announced that it is considering a proposal to link eligibility to import rice to the volume of rice purchased from domestic farmers to protect the local industry.

Mr. Laurel said the proposal would require traders to buy palay (unmilled rice) or rice to receive import allocations.

He said the department is targeting initial implementation of the system in the second half of the year, possibly by July.

Former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar said the proposed policy is expected to manage rice imports while helping local producers.

“It will be a good incentive for traders to buy local palay before they are given allocation to import rice,” he told BusinessWorld via Viber. “I suggest that for every 4 metric tons of palay bought, a ton of rice can be imported, hence a ratio of 4:1 in favor of local palay purchase.”

Raul Q. Montemayor, national manager of the Federation of Free Farmers, earlier told BusinessWorld that the proposed local purchase requirement “will not be a problem” as some rice importers and traders are also engaged in milling operations.

“For importers who have no local buying operations, they could easily tie up with local millers or traders or put up their own shell companies,” he said via Viber.

Mr. Montemayor said the proposed scheme would also benefit from additional requirements, such as proof of palay purchase at the floor price or higher. — Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel

Peso likely range-bound as market eyes BSP meet

The peso may move sideways against the dollar this week before an expected rate cut by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and following the release of softer-than-expected US inflation data.

On Friday, the local unit closed at PHP 58.02 per dollar, rising by 9.5 centavos from its PHP 58.115 finish on Thursday, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed.

This was the peso’s strongest finish in more than four months or since it ended at PHP 57.95 on Oct. 8, 2025.

Week on week, the peso surged by 56.5 centavos from its PHP 58.585 close on Feb. 06.

The local currency strengthened on Friday as the dollar stayed weak and with players positioning before the BSP’s policy meeting as the central bank is close to ending its current easing cycle, a trader said by phone.

All 16 analysts surveyed in a BusinessWorld poll conducted last week expect the Monetary Board to reduce the target reverse repurchase by 25 basis points (bps) for the sixth straight time at its first meeting of the year on Thursday (Feb. 19) to bring the policy rate to 4.25%.

The peso rose along with regional currencies on Friday, buoyed mainly by a stronger yen, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

The yen was set for its strongest weekly gain in a year on Friday, after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s historic election win allayed some investor worries about the government’s finances, Reuters reported.

On Friday, the yen traded on a weaker footing, leaving the dollar 0.5% higher at 153.46, but it was still headed for a gain of 2.4% for the week, its largest rise since February last year.

For this week, the trader said the peso could weaken ahead of the BSP’s expected rate cut, with the US inflation report released on Friday also expected to dictate the market’s direction to start this week’s trading.

The trader sees the peso moving between PHP 57.80 and PHP 58.20 per dollar this week, while Mr. Ricafort expects it to range from PHP 57.70 to PHP 58.25.

US consumer prices increased less than expected in January amid cheaper gasoline and a moderation in rental inflation, but households faced higher costs for services, suggesting little urgency for the Federal Reserve to resume cutting interest rates before summer, Reuters reported.

The report followed on the heels of news last week of an acceleration in job growth in January and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3% from 4.4% in December.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% last month after an unrevised 0.3% gain in December, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI increasing 0.3%. With January’s CPI report, the BLS published recalculated seasonal adjustment factors to reflect 2025 price movements.

The report was slightly delayed by a three-day shutdown of the federal government. Some economists attributed January’s favorable headline reading to the volatility in the CPI data caused by last year’s longer shutdown that prevented the collection of prices for October.

In the 12 months through January, the CPI increased 2.4%. The slowdown in the year-on-year inflation rate from 2.7% in December mostly reflected last year’s higher readings dropping out of the calculation. The tamer inflation numbers were unlikely to resonate with consumers.

Financial markets raised the odds of a June rate cut. The Fed last month left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range.

The Fed tracks the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price indexes for its 2% inflation target. Both measures are running well above target. Based on the CPI data, economists’ estimates for the January increase in core PCE inflation ranged from 0.2% to 0.5%. Year-on-year estimates for January core PCE inflation were between an increase of 2.9% and 3.2%. The government will publish December PCE inflation data this week. — A.M.C. Sy with Reuters

2025 foreign investments fall 50%

Approved foreign investments in the Philippines plunged by 50.1% year on year to PHP 272.38 billion in 2025, its sharpest fall in five years, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Thursday.

Preliminary data from the PSA showed that the value of foreign commitments approved by the country’s investment promotion agencies (IPA) in 2025 was lower than PHP 546.19 billion in 2024.

This was the steepest drop in foreign investments since the 71.3% drop recorded during the pandemic in 2020.

By value, this was the lowest amount of approved foreign investments since the PHP 241.89 billion recorded in 2022.

Singapore was the top source of investment pledges for 2025 after committing PHP 92.78 billion, or 34.1% of the total. It was followed by the Netherlands with PHP 35.98 billion (13.2% share) and Japan with PHP 34.03 billion (12.5%).

Analysts attributed the sharp drop in foreign investment pledges to the sluggish investor confidence in the Philippines arising from global trade uncertainties, natural disasters and the flood control corruption scandal.

“In a nutshell, the decline in approved foreign investment pledges in 2025 was driven by a mix of weaker investor confidence due to governance and corruption issues, global economic uncertainties, cautious corporate behavior, and an unusually high base of comparison from the previous year,” said Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, director of the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development.

Marco Antonio C. Agonia, an economist at the University of Asia and the Pacific, said uncertainty over the US tariffs may have also dissuaded foreign investors from setting up operations in the Philippines.

The United States imposed a 19% tariff on most Philippine goods beginning Aug. 7, 2025.

“Similarly, weaker growth prospects from repeated natural disasters and the flood control scandal may have encouraged foreign companies to scrap or defer their investment plans in the country,” Mr. Agonia said in an e-mail.

The Board of Investments (BoI) approved PHP 150.34 billion worth of investment pledges in 2025, accounting for 55.2% of the total. It was followed by the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) with investment pledges worth PHP 107.06 billion (39.3% share), and the Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA) with PHP 7.01 billion (2.6%).

For 2025, about 45% or PHP 122.48 billion of the total approved foreign investments will go to the energy sector, followed by manufacturing with PHP 81.41 billion (29.9% share) and real-estate activities with PHP 26.31 billion (9.7%).

In 2025, Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon) cornered around PHP 100.43 billion worth of these investment pledges. Central Luzon will get PHP 70.74 billion while the Bicol Region got PHP 50.76 billion.

Sharp rise in Q4

PSA data also showed foreign investment pledges surged by 79.1% to PHP 103.33 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, from PHP 57.7 billion in the same period in 2024. This was the fastest growth since the third quarter of 2024 when approved foreign investments soared by 423.4% to PHP 143.74 billion.

“The jump in [fourth-quarter] approved foreign investments may be attributed to base effects. The Q4 2025 reading saw a rebound coming from the low base but is still historically lower than previous Q4 pledge readings,” said Mr. Agonia, noting that pledges fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2024 over tariff uncertainties.

Mr. Peña-Reyes said agencies may have also “back-loaded” approvals of large investments in the last months of 2025.

“There was sectoral project momentum in strategic areas like energy, IT-BPM, and infrastructure,” he said. “There was relative improvement in sentiment and continued policy support, which encouraged the finalization of deals that had been delayed earlier in the year.”

In the fourth quarter, investment commitments were approved by six IPAs — BoI, PEZA, Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority (SBMA), BoI-Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, Clark International Airport Corp., and Zamboanga City Special Economic Zone Authority.

The BoI approved foreign pledges worth PHP 66.19 billion accounting for 64.1% of the total, followed by PEZA with PHP 35 billion (or 33.9% share) and SBMA with PHP 1.29 billion worth of commitments (1.2%).

In the fourth quarter, the Netherlands was the biggest source of approved investments with PHP 33.05 billion, accounting for 32% of the total. This was followed by Japan with commitments worth PHP 17.88 billion (17.3%) and Singapore with commitments worth PHP 17.66 billion (17.1% share).

During the October-to-December period, the Authority of the Freeport Area of Bataan, BCDA, Cagayan Economic Zone Authority, Clark Development Corp., Poro Point Management Corp., John Hay Management Corp., and Tourism Infrastructure and Enterprise Zone Authority did not approve any investment pledges.

The energy sector also cornered the largest approved foreign investments with PHP 49.41 billion in the fourth quarter, about 47.8% of the total pledges during the period.

Around 33.6% or PHP 34.68 billion of the approved foreign investments will go into the manufacturing industry, while 4.6% or PHP 4.76 billion worth of pledges will be invested in the information and communication industry.

For the period, 45.3% of the foreign investment commitments worth PHP 46.85 billion will go to projects located in Calabarzon.

Central Luzon cornered PHP 35.36 billion worth of investment commitments while Negros Island Region got PHP 7.79 billion.

Should these foreign commitments materialize, these projects are expected to generate 101,164 jobs, 0.8% lower than 101,966 projected jobs a year earlier.

Meanwhile, PSA data showed combined investment commitments from both foreign and Filipino investors surged by 193.8% to PHP 1.1 trillion in the fourth quarter, from PHP 373.7 billion in the same period in 2024. Filipino investors contributed PHP 994.44 billion, or 90.6% of the total.

In 2025, total investment commitments from foreign and Filipino nationals fell by 1.7% to PHP 1.92 trillion, from PHP 1.96 trillion in the previous year. Investment pledges by Filipinos reached PHP 1.65 trillion last year, accounting for 85.8% of the total.

Mr. Peña-Reyes said there will likely be a “moderate recovery” in foreign investment pledges in the first quarter of 2026.

“This view is supported by project pipelines and sector prospects, but it is still influenced by cautious investor sentiment,” he said.

“For the rest of the year, there could be gradual strengthening if reforms and policy clarity improve, with key sectors attracting sustained interest. Actual FDI (foreign direct investment) flows may lag pledges, but they could trend upward as confidence returns,” he added.

On the other hand, Mr. Agonia said investment pledges may remain subdued for the rest of the year.

“The fallout of a weaker growth outlook from the corruption scandal, its effects on government spending and consumer and investor confidence will likely extend into this year, barring any major improvements to the business environment,” he said.

The PSA data on foreign investment commitments, which may materialize shortly, differ from actual foreign direct investments tracked by the BSP. The central bank’s monitoring goes beyond the projects and includes other items such as reinvested earnings and lending to Philippine units via their debt instruments. — Heather Caitlin P. Mañago, Researcher

BSP: Economy to rebound by 2nd half

The Philippine economy is on track to bounce back this year as business confidence has begun to improve, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said.

“It looks like it’s (confidence) beginning to come back,” the central bank chief said during a Management Association of the Philippines (MAP) event on Wednesday held in Taguig City. “Not as fast as we would like, but it’s coming back.”

“In our projections, we think that we’ll be back to normal by the second half of 2026,” he added.

Mr. Remolona noted that the loss of confidence amid the graft scandal stalled the country’s economic growth in the second half of 2025.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3%, its slowest in 14 years (excluding the pandemic), as investments and spending slowed amid the flood control controversy.

This brought full-year economic growth to a post-pandemic low of 4.4%, undershooting the BSP’s 4.6% forecast and the government’s 5.5%-6.5% target.

However, recent indicators, such as the S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi), have signaled that business confidence is slowly returning and the economy may be on the way to recovery.

Latest data showed that the Philippines’ manufacturing PMI rose to a nine-month high of 52.9 in January from 50.2 in December.

The PSEi rose to a near seven-month high on Wednesday, even soaring above the 6,500 line during the session. The PSEi went up by 0.37% or 24.22 points to close at 6,498.82, its best finish in almost seven months or since it closed at 6,525.04 on July 14, 2025.

For 2026, the central bank projects GDP to expand by 5.4%.

However, Mr. Remolona said they are reviewing a potential revision to their growth forecast.

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the MAP event, Mr. Remolona said the revival of confidence, alongside inflation falling back to target, may have narrowed the central bank’s easing space.

Asked if the BSP can still afford to cut rates anew to support the economy, Mr. Remolona said: “It’s conceivable. Again, it’s based on the data. We have to review the data.”

The benchmark interest rate currently stands at 4.5%, the lowest in over three years.

The Monetary Board has so far delivered 200 basis points (bps) in cuts since it began its easing cycle in August 2024, including five straight 25-bp reductions last year.

Mr. Remolona noted that stabilizing inflation remains their priority in deciding on the monetary policy path.

“If we can maintain price stability, that will help with confidence,” he said.

In January, headline inflation came in at 2%, marking its comeback to the BSP’s 2%-4% target for the first time in nearly a year.

Inflation

Meanwhile, BSP Deputy Governor Zeno Ronald R. Abenoja said headline inflation may approach the 3% mark in the coming months before potentially breaching it by the second half of the year.

“If you look at the inflation path in our MPR (monetary policy report), it will move gradually close to 3% and then possibly a little above 3% by (the) second half,” he told reporters on the sidelines of the same event. “But after that, it will move closer to 3% again and then stabilize around that area.”

Mr. Remolona noted that he doesn’t mind inflation undershooting their target but said that an above-3% print worries him more.

The BSP expects headline inflation to average 3.2% by yearend, before easing to 3% in 2027. — Katherine K. Chan, Reporter

DTI eyes more investments in aerospace manufacturing

The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) is looking to attract investments in aerospace manufacturing and services as well as sustainable aviation fuel, an official said.

“The Philippines has strong capabilities in areas of parts manufacturing and MROs (maintenance, repair, overhaul),” Trade Undersecretary and Board of Investments (BoI) Managing Head Ceferino S. Rodolfo told BusinessWorld. “These include machining, plastic injection, assembly, packaging, and delivery,” he added.

Mr. Rodolfo said the Philippines can take advantage of opportunities as the industry pursues decarbonization.

“With more than 140 nations pledging for the target of Net Zero by 2050, the Philippines also recognizes the significance of sustainable aviation fuel in the global aviation industry’s decarbonization,” he added.

Mr. Rodolfo noted the Philippines has more than 15 million metric tons of biomass, which can be used for sustainable fuel. These are from rice, corn, coconut, and cassava, among others.

The country also has abundant feedstock concentrated in Central Luzon, Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon), Western Visayas, Northern Mindanao, and Davao.

Mr. Rodolfo’s statement follows the participation of the country at the Singapore Airshow 2026 earlier this month, where the department facilitated business matching and target introductions with foreign investors, buyers, and attendees.

“DTI’s engagement at the airshow focuses on positioning the Philippines as a competitive location for aerospace manufacturing and services, including parts production, sub-assemblies, and MRO,” the Philippine Trade and Investment Center (PTIC)-Singapore said in a statement.

The DTI also advanced direct commercial discussions between Philippine firms and international aerospace companies.

“Singapore plays a central role in regional investment decision-making, with many Asia-Pacific manufacturing, MRO, and supply chain decisions taken by regional headquarters of global aerospace and aviation firms based here,” said PTIC-Singapore Commercial Counsellor Carla Regina P. Grepo.

During the event, she said that the PTIC-Singapore briefed aerospace and aviation companies on opportunities in aircraft parts manufacturing, sub-assemblies, and MRO in the Philippines.

“While some firms also referenced defense-related programs as part of their long-term outlook, the core discussions centered on commercial aerospace supply chains, procurement diversification, and expansion of MRO capabilities in Asia,” she added.

Citing data from the BoI, PTIC Singapore said that Philippine aerospace exports stood at USD 590.2 million in 2024, rising to USD 603.1 million in the first nine months of 2025. Major export markets included the US, Singapore, France, and China.

Although the country currently hosts Tier 1 and Tier 2 aerospace parts suppliers to Boeing and Airbus across industrial zones and airport-linked developments, the Philippines still face a lack of skilled workers.

To address this, Mr. Rodolfo said that the department has been working with human resource (HR) firms and relevant universities to explore potential areas of collaboration.

“The BoI is continuously engaging HR firms and workforce providers and has supported similar key players in the aerospace parts manufacturing sector, including Tier-1 companies like Collins Aerospace,” he said.

The BoI is also spearheading the Academe-Industry Matching (AIM!) Program, which aims to bridge the gap between education and industry needs.

“Through the AIM! campus roadshows, industry partners are able to increase awareness of the industries’ skills requirements and competencies, enabling high school students to have career options related to the featured industries,” Mr. Rodolfo said.

Apart from aerospace, the program also featured industries like information technology and business process management and electronics, among others.

Mr. Rodolfo also cited the role of Administrative Order No. 31 in advancing the aviation sector.

Issued in March last year, the order created the Philippine Semiconductor and Electronics Industry Roadmap as well as the Semiconductor and Electronics Advisory Council.

“Growing semiconductors and electronics through continued skills development will have a positive impact on the aviation sector,” he added.

Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA), which was among the sponsors of the Philippine Pavilion at the Singapore Airshow, recently announced investment pledges from Lufthansa Technik Philippines.

BCDA President and Chief Executive Officer Joshua M. Bingcang earlier said that it received a proposal from the company for a USD 400-million MRO facility at the Clark Aviation Capital in Pampanga.

The company already operates an MRO facility at Ninoy Aquino International Airport. — Justine Irish D. Tabile, Senior Reporter

Peso hits near four-month high as dollar falls on weak US data

The peso jumped to a near four-month high against the dollar on Wednesday following the release of softer-than-expected US retail sales data that could indicate weakness in the world’s largest economy.

The local unit gained by 24 centavos to close at PHP 58.29 versus the greenback from its PHP 58.53 finish on Tuesday, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed.

This was the peso’s strongest finish in almost four months or since it closed at PHP 58.225 on Oct. 21, 2025.

The currency opened Wednesday’s trading session sharply stronger at PHP 58.44 against the dollar. Its intraday low was at just PHP 58.48, while its best showing was at PHP 58.255 against the greenback.

Dollars traded increased to USD 1.46 billion from USD 1.179 billion on Tuesday.

“The peso gained after the US retail sales report for December posted a flat growth despite the expected boost from the holiday season,” a trader said in an e-mail.

US retail sales were unexpectedly unchanged in December as households scaled back spending on motor vehicles and other big-ticket items, potentially setting consumer spending and the economy on a slower growth path heading into the new year, Reuters reported.

The flat reading in retail sales last month followed an unrevised 0.6% increase in November, the Commerce department’s Census Bureau said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, would rise by 0.4%.

Sales increased 2.4% year on year in December. October’s monthly sales were revised to show them declining 0.2% instead of 0.1% as previously estimated.

The dollar struggled across the board on Wednesday, particularly against the yen and Australian dollar, with the Japanese currency continuing to outperform after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide election victory.

The dollar was down 0.75% against the yen at JPY 153.25, taking its losses to 2.5% since Friday’s close before Ms. Takaichi’s weekend win.

The euro was up 0.16% to USD 1.1914, sterling gained 0.3% to USD 1.3680, and the US currency was down 0.25% against the Swiss franc at 0.7659.

US jobs data for January, delayed from last week due to the short government shutdown, could be the next test for this weakening dollar trend later on Wednesday.

Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 70,000 last month after rising 50,000 in December, a Reuters survey of economists showed, and a large beat or miss will shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

The peso was also supported by Philippine foreign direct investments (FDI) data that indicated improved sentiment, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

Central bank data showed that FDI net inflows dipped by 0.3% year on year to USD 897 million in November. Still, this was the highest in four months or since the USD 1.271 billion in July.

For Thursday, the trader said the peso could rise further on the US jobs data to be released overnight.

The trader sees the local unit moving between PHP 58.15 and PHP 58.40 per dollar, while Mr. Ricafort expects it to range from PHP 58.20 to PHP 58.40. — Aaron Michael C. Sy with Reuters

PSEi jumps to seven-month high on strong peso

The main index rose to a seven-month high on Wednesday, even soaring above the 6,500 line during the session, supported by a strong peso and as players looked ahead to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) policy meeting next week, where a rate cut is widely expected.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) went up by 0.37% or 24.22 points to close at 6,498.82, while the broader all shares index climbed by 0.37% or 13.43 points to end at 3,606.53.

This was the benchmark’s best finish in almost seven months or since it closed at 6,525.04 on July 14, 2025, which was also the last time the PSEi ended above the 6,500 line.

“The local market closed higher, backed by the appreciation of the local currency,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

On Wednesday, the peso jumped by 24 centavos to close at a near four-month high of PHP 58.29 versus the greenback, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed.

“The market was treading above the coveted 6,500 level before sliding down in the last minute of trading as bargain hunting activities prevailed, positioning ahead of the Monetary Board meeting next week,” AP Securities, Inc. said in a market note.

The PSEi opened Wednesday’s trading session at 6,492.33, rising from Tuesday’s close of 6,474.60. It hit an intraday high of 6,543.35 and a low of 6,474.04.

The BSP’s policy-setting Monetary Board will hold its first review for the year on Feb. 19, where analysts expect a sixth straight rate cut amid weak growth and manageable inflation.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier said a cut is possible at this month’s meeting if they see the need to support domestic demand, especially after economic growth slumped to a five-year low in 2025.

However, on Wednesday, he said inflation returning within their target range last month and expectations of economic recovery amid the return of confidence may have narrowed their easing space.

The Monetary Board has lowered benchmark borrowing costs by a total of 200 basis points since its rate cut cycle began in August 2024.

Majority of sectoral indices closed in the green on Wednesday. Mining and oil rose by 1.54% or 276.79 points to 18,168.51; property increased by 1.21% or 26.96 points to 2,241.36; financials went up by 0.83% or 17.95 points to 2,176.62; and industrials climbed by 0.8% or 73.65 points to 9,199.67.

Meanwhile, holding firms fell by 0.2% or 10.58 points to 5,172.72, and services went down by 0.12% or 3.47 points to 2,685.70.

Advancers outnumbered decliners, 106 to 89, while 69 names closed unchanged.

Value turnover jumped to PHP 9.17 billion on Wednesday with 2.95 billion shares from the PHP 6.86 billion with 754.25 million issues that changed hands on Tuesday.

Net foreign buying decreased to PHP 834.62 million from PHP 1.01 billion in the previous session. — A.G.C. Magno

FDI net inflows hit 4-month high

Net inflows of foreign direct investments (FDIs) into the Philippines hit a four-month high in November, even as inflows slipped year on year, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said.

Preliminary BSP data released on Tuesday showed that FDI net inflows dipped by 0.3% to USD 897 million in November from USD 900 million in the same month in 2024.

Month on month, inflows jumped by 39.7% from USD 642 million in October.

November saw the highest FDI inflows in four months or since USD 1.271 billion in July.

“Foreign direct investments into the Philippines posted net inflows of USD 897 million in November 2025,” the central bank said in a statement. “South Korea was the leading source of FDIs, with most inflows directed to the manufacturing industry during the month.”

Based on BSP data, investments in equity and investment fund shares soared by 71.6% to USD 187 million in November from USD 109 million a year ago.

Net investments in equity capital other than reinvestment of earnings more than tripled to USD 122 million in November, from the USD 35 million logged in November 2024.

This, as equity capital placements doubled year on year to USD 142 million from USD 71 million, while withdrawals dropped by 44.4% to USD 20 million from USD 36 million previously.

Meanwhile, reinvestment of earnings stood at USD 64 million, down by 12.7% from USD 74 million a year earlier.

Net investments in debt instruments fell by 10.2% annually to USD 711 million in November from USD 791 million a year ago.

According to the BSP, net investments in debt instruments include mainly intercompany borrowing or lending between foreign direct investors and their subsidiaries or affiliates in the Philippines. The rest are investments made by nonresident subsidiaries or associates in their resident direct investors, or known as reverse investment.

SM Investments Corp. Group Economist Robert Dan J. Roces said the nearly flat year-on-year change in FDI net inflows reflects steady but still selective investor sentiment.

“(It) shows stabilization after a softer stretch,” he said in a Viber message. “Some delayed equity placements and reinvested earnings likely came through, which tells you investors are pacing commitments, not exiting.”

11-month slump

Meanwhile, FDIs went down by 22.1% to USD 7.077 billion at end-November from USD 9.084 billion in the same period last year.

“For the first eleven months of 2025, equity capital placements were sourced primarily from Japan, the United States, Singapore, and South Korea, and were channeled largely into the manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and real estate industries,” the central bank said.

BSP data showed that investments in equity and investment fund shares reached USD 2.297 billion in the 11-month period, declining by 10.8% from USD 2.576 billion the year prior.

This, as net foreign investments in equity capital, excluding reinvestment of earnings, fell by 23.3% year on year to USD 1.144 billion during the period from USD 1.491 billion.

Of the total, placements dropped by 12.2% annually to USD 1.741 billion, while withdrawals rose by 21.1% to USD 596 million.

On the other hand, reinvestment of earnings edged up by 6.2% to USD 1.152 billion in the period ending November from USD 1.085 billion in the previous year.

However, nonresidents’ net investments in debt instruments of local affiliates amounted to USD 4.78 billion, down 26.6% from the USD 6.508 billion logged as of November 2024.

FDIs account for foreign investors’ investments in local businesses where they hold at least a 10% equity capital, as well as investments by a nonresident subsidiary or associate in its resident direct investor. It can be in the form of equity capital, reinvestment of earnings or borrowings.

The BSP’s FDI data cover actual investment flows, compared to the Philippine Statistics Authority’s foreign investments data which include investment commitments that may not be fully realized in a given period.

Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said the decline in FDI net inflows during the 11-month period shows that investors were more cautious last year.

“That mix suggests the Philippines hasn’t lost investor interest — sentiment just became more selective,” he said in a Viber message.

“The decline likely reflects global uncertainty, domestic policy noise, and tougher competition from our ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) neighbors,” Mr. Ravelas added. “But the November bump signals that when investors see clearer direction and more stability, they begin to re‑engage.”

Mr. Roces said there could be annual growth in FDI inflows at the end of 2025 if companies log year-end reinvestments or intercompany loans, “but that will depend more on timing of flows than a sudden shift in confidence.”

Meanwhile, Mr. Ravelas said credible reforms, reduced uncertainty and faster execution could enhance the country’s investment climate.

“If the government sustains that clarity, we could turn that November momentum into a broader recovery,” he said. — Katherine K. Chan, Reporter

Philippine banks’ loan growth slows to near 2-year low

The Philippine banking sector’s lending activity expanded at its slowest pace in nearly two years at the end of 2025 as loans for both consumers and business activities eased as a corruption scandal dampened sentiment, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported.

Based on preliminary BSP data released late on Monday, the total outstanding loans of universal and commercial banks, net of reverse repurchase agreements, grew by 9.2% year on year at end-December to PHP 14.349 trillion from PHP 13.138 trillion.

This was the slowest loan growth seen in 22 months or since 8.6% in February 2024.

It was also the first time since April 2024 that bank lending grew at a single-digit pace.

Month on month, the pace of lending eased from the 10.3% growth posted at end-November.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, bank lending fell by 2% month on month.

Outstanding loans to residents stood at PHP 14.046 trillion by yearend, up by 9.7% year on year from PHP 12.808 trillion. This was slower than the 10.7% expansion seen in November.

Lending for residents’ production activities accounted for the bulk or 84.4% of banks’ outstanding loans at the end of December. The rest were consumer loans (13.5%) and loans to nonresidents (2.1%).

BSP data showed that loans for production activities grew by 8% annually to PHP 12.114 trillion last year from PHP 11.216 trillion in 2024. This eased from the 9% growth seen in the 11 months to November.

This was driven by the 26.8% jump in lending for the electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply sector. Loans extended for wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles also grew by 10.8%, followed by real estate activities (8.3%) and financial and insurance activities (3.9%).

Meanwhile, consumer loans to residents reached PHP 1.932 trillion at end-December, up 21.4% from P1.592 trillion a year ago. However, consumer loan growth eased from the 22.9% at end-November.

Credit card loans jumped by 27.7% to PHP 1.193 trillion at end-December, softening from the 29.5% growth the prior month.

Loans for motor vehicles also rose by 15.5% to PHP 524.86 billion, slower than the 16.3% growth as of November.

Loans for general-purpose salaries rose by 5.6% to PHP 166.807 billion at end-December, easing from 6.4% at end-November.

On the other hand, lending to nonresidents contracted by 8.1% to PHP 303.208 billion, marking a steeper decline from the -4.5% logged at end-November. These include loans disbursed by big banks’ foreign currency deposit units.

Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said the slower growth in bank lending and domestic liquidity may have stemmed from infrastructure underspending that dampened activity in key sectors, such as construction.

“Slower bank loans growth and M3 (domestic liquidity) growth are largely consistent with the economic slowdown in the latter part of 2025 largely due to government underspending especially on infrastructure that reduced sales, earnings, profits, employment and other business activities,” he said via Viber.

Union Bank of the Philippines (UnionBank) Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion also attributed banks’ subdued loan growth to the country’s recent economic slowdown.

“Business loans softened as manufacturing, construction, and trade‑related sectors remained weighed down by weak demand, while consumer loan growth also eased as both households and banks turned more cautious,” he said in a Viber message.

Weak sentiment amid the graft scandal also prompted investors to adopt a cautious approach “thereby reducing the demand for loans amid the decline in investments that are financed by loans,” Mr. Ricafort added.

Multiple public officials and private contractors had faced corruption allegations linked to government flood control projects, which sparked public outrage and later weighed on consumer and business confidence.

Loan demand could improve this year with the help of the government’s spending catch-up plan and the central bank’s further easing, Mr. Ricafort noted.

“Lower interest rates by the BSP and by the Fed, as well as possible further reduction in large banks’ RRR (reserve requirement ratio) that also increase further banks’ loanable or investible funds would further reduce borrowing costs and that would increase demand and growth in bank loans,” he said.

The benchmark interest rate currently stands at an over three-year low of 4.5%. Since August 2024, the Monetary Board has so far lowered borrowing costs by a cumulative 200 basis points (bps).

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier said that they could ease for a sixth straight meeting on Feb. 19 if the fourth-quarter growth slowdown proves to be demand-driven.

He also left the door open for a potential RRR cut, though noted that they are still looking for the right timing to do so.

“BSP’s rate cuts continue to support credit conditions, but the impact is being tempered by soft domestic demand and tighter risk management by banks,” UnionBank’s Mr. Asuncion said. “Monetary easing is helping prevent a sharper deceleration, though it cannot fully offset the broader economic slowdown.”

He also noted that bank lending may get some lift from the loan demand in the energy sector, particularly for renewable energy projects.

Liquidity growth slows

Meanwhile, separate BSP data showed that liquidity growth fell to its weakest in four months at 7% as of December. This was also slower than the 7.6% increase in the previous month.

M3 — a measure of the amount of money in the economy that includes currencies in circulation, bank deposits, and other financial assets easily convertible to cash — stood at PHP 20.108 trillion by yearend.

“After adjusting for seasonal fluctuations, M3 remained broadly stable from November,” the central bank said in a statement.

Domestic claims, which include claims from private and government entities, climbed by 10.1% year on year to PHP 22.588 trillion, slowing from the 10.6% growth as of November.

This came as subdued bank lending to nonfinancial private corporations, and households dragged growth of claims on the private sector down to 10.1% from 11.1% a month ago. Private sector claims reached PHP 14.512 trillion during the period.

Meanwhile, the BSP said higher borrowings lifted net claims on the central government by 10.8% to PHP 6.135 trillion. However, this was slower than the 11% growth seen at end-November.

Central bank data also showed that net foreign assets (NFA) in peso terms climbed by 6.1% as of December from 4.4% a month prior.

Broken down, the BSP’s NFAs edged up by 5.3%, picking up from 1.9% in the previous month.

On the other hand, banks’ NFAs went up by 13% annually driven by larger holdings of foreign currency-denominated debt securities. However, this marked a sharp slowdown from the 26.9% pace as of November.

NFAs reflect the difference between depository corporations’ claims and liabilities to nonresidents.

“The BSP monitors bank loans because they are a key transmission channel of monetary policy,” the central bank said. “Looking ahead, the BSP will ensure that domestic liquidity and bank lending conditions remain consistent with its price and financial stability mandates.” — Katherine K. Chan, Reporter

Peso weakens as markets eye key US data

The peso went down against the dollar on Tuesday as market players stayed on the sidelines before key US economic data releases later this week.

The local unit weakened by 7.5 centavos to close at PHP 58.53 versus the greenback from its PHP 58.455 finish on Monday, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed.

The currency opened Tuesday’s trading session slightly stronger at PHP 58.40 against the dollar. It climbed to as high as PHP 58.38, while its worst showing was its closing level of PHP 58.53

Dollars traded increased to USD 1.179 billion from USD 1.08 billion on Monday.

“The peso weakened ahead of a likely upbeat US retail sales report,” the first trader said in an e-mail.

“The dollar-peso traded with a slight upward bias but closed at its intraday high on cautious positioning ahead of US data,” the second trader said, adding that the market is awaiting reports on retail sales, nonfarm payrolls, and inflation.

For Wednesday, the first trader expects the peso to range from PHP 58.40 to PHP 58.65 per dollar, while the second trader sees it moving between PHP 58.30 and PHP 58.60.

Meanwhile, the US dollar extended Monday’s decline against the yen after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election victory, while remaining little changed against European currencies before key economic data due on Wednesday.

The Japanese currency snapped a six‑day losing streak on Monday after falling toward the 160 threshold against the greenback, triggering fears of intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen.

However, analysts also noted that Ms. Takaichi’s policy, which includes tax cuts and more fiscal spending, is expected to boost the economy and lift the stock market, potentially prompting a more hawkish Bank of Japan, all factors that could support the yen.

The yen rose 0.23% to ¥155.52 against the dollar after jumping 0.85% the day before.

It was up 0.32% at ¥185.18 versus the euro after being roughly unchanged on Monday.

“With Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi moving from a relatively fiscally conservative stance to one favoring carefully targeted stimulus, the balance of risks has tilted toward additional tightening from the Bank of Japan,” said Harvey Bradley, co-head of global rates at Insight Investment, arguing that a neutral rate around 1.5% looks reasonable.

“Takaichi’s planned election is aimed at consolidating her position, but a realignment among opposition parties may complicate that ambition and should reassure markets that the fiscal outlook is not going to meaningfully deteriorate,” he added.

Investor attention will be on the monthly reports covering US employment and consumer prices that were pushed back slightly due to a recent three-day government shutdown.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Monday that US job gains could be lower in the coming months due to slower labor force growth and higher productivity. Investors are trying to assess whether weakening in the labor market has tapered off.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six other currencies, was roughly unchanged at 96.90, after hitting a fresh one-week low at 96.789. — A.M.C. Sy with Reuters

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