THE GIST
NEWS AND FEATURES
Global Philippines Fine Living
INSIGHTS
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
WEBINARS
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
DOWNLOADS
grocery-2-aa
Economic Updates
Inflation Update: Prices rise even slower in May 
DOWNLOAD
Buildings in the Makati Central Business District
Economic Updates
Monthly Recap: BSP to outpace the Fed in rate cuts 
DOWNLOAD
economy-ss-9
Economic Updates
Quarterly Economic Growth Release: 5.4% Q12025
DOWNLOAD
View all Reports
Metrobank.com.ph Contact Us
Follow us on our platforms.

How may we help you?

TOP SEARCHES
  • Where to put my investments
  • Reports about the pandemic and economy
  • Metrobank
  • Webinars
  • Economy
TRENDING ARTICLES
  • Investing for Beginners: Following your PATH
  • On government debt thresholds: How much is too much?
  • Philippines Stock Market Outlook for 2022
  • No Relief from Deficit Spending Yet

Login

Access Exclusive Content
Login to Wealth Manager
Visit us at metrobank.com.ph Contact Us
Access Exclusive Content Login to Wealth Manager
Search
THE GIST
NEWS AND FEATURES
Global Philippines Fine Living
INSIGHTS
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
WEBINARS
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
DOWNLOADS
grocery-2-aa
Economic Updates
Inflation Update: Prices rise even slower in May 
June 5, 2025 DOWNLOAD
Buildings in the Makati Central Business District
Economic Updates
Monthly Recap: BSP to outpace the Fed in rate cuts 
May 29, 2025 DOWNLOAD
economy-ss-9
Economic Updates
Quarterly Economic Growth Release: 5.4% Q12025
May 8, 2025 DOWNLOAD
View all Reports

Tag: Philippines inflation

Economy 3 MIN READ

Why the Philippines’ economic outlook in 2024 will be better than 2023’s

Despite inflation pressures and sluggish growth rates, the Philippines’ 2024 economic outlook is looking good, according to the forecast of Metrobank’s chief economist.

March 7, 2024By Alex Villafania
Skyscrapers in Metro Manila

Despite high inflationary pressures that are seen to carry over from 2023, the Philippines is still forecasted to grow its economy in 2024. This is a result of a push that will come from consumer spending, government spending, and investment spending that started to pick up in the fourth quarter of 2023.

At the recent Market Movers briefing in Manila, Metrobank’s chief economist and Head of Research and Business Analytics Marc Bautista says that the country has a positive economic outlook where he expects a 6% growth in the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024.

“Revenge” government and consumer spending

On consumer spending, Bautista said that despite high inflation in 2023, there was still a pickup in consumer spending in late 2023. This despite base effects from the high “revenge spending” in 2022 where consumers were spending more to make up for lost time and experiences during the lockdowns.

“People were expecting that this would continue to come down, but it rebounded in the 4th quarter, which is hardly surprising,” Bautista said.

Meanwhile, government spending also rebounded in the third quarter of 2023 as the government realized the need to push spending on many of its infrastructure projects that were delayed by different factors.

“They did a lot of catch-up spending, which very likely front-loaded whatever spending they had for 2nd half of the year into the 3rd quarter, and then maybe just had leftover spending for the 4th quarter,” Bautista said.

He stressed that government spending would continue through 2024. “We expect for this year, government spending will continue. The new finance secretary has indicated that he will continue with the infrastructure spending and all of the development agenda of the government. Couple that with consumer spending, that tells you that we’re still going to get that growth in 2024,” he said.

Surprising investment spending

The big surprise that contributed to higher GDP, at least in the last quarter of 2023 and which may also continue in 2024, is investment spending.

Bautista noted that economic indicators suggested a potential decline in investment spending in the 4th quarter of 2023, with a recovery anticipated in 2024.

Instead, perhaps because of an increase in government spending in Q3 2023, this may have prompted the private sector to increase its investment spending as well in Q4 2023. Expected rate cuts in 2024 may further support investment spending especially in the latter part of the year, where rate cuts are expected to happen. These developments align with the PH’s macroeconomic targets of fostering economic growth and stability.

Import growth and export concerns

The country’s export sector saw some contraction towards yearend 2023 due to weak global demand, which Bautista’s economic outlook said may continue in 2024. However, the Philippines’ growing imports suggest a potential increase in business activity, which is what could drive the Philippines’ economic growth thanks to increased consumer, government, and investor spending.”

“We’re a net importer and we’ve been a net importer really in terms of our position in the global economy. That’s hardly surprising. Because when we’re growing, we need to import the stuff that we need to grow,” Bautista said.

Going back to exports, Bautista said that the contraction is more indicative of the real weakness in the global economy rather than the domestic economy, especially considering the Philippines’ positive economic outlook for 2024.

External concerns, such as the continued effects of the El Niño phenomenon and the shipping disruptions in the Red Sea because of Houthi attacks in the region, have impacted the global supply chain and logistics, which can hamper growth in all economies that have import and export requirements.

Will the Philippine economy be better in 2024?

“The Philippines is a very good place to be. Inflation will be coming down, but it will remain elevated. But since it’s coming down, it gives more room for the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to cut rates. That will give you more incentives for investment spending to start picking up, especially in the second half of this year. Therefore, you’re going to have all that growth,” Bautista said.

ALEXANDER VILLAFANIA is a writer for Metrobank’s Wealth Insights. For almost 20 years, he authored stories on science, technology, and education as a journalist for several local news organizations. He has since transitioned to writing more about financial literacy, believing that helping people develop a healthy relationship with money is key to enabling positive socio-economic and environmental change.

Read More Articles About:
Worldwide News Philippine News Rates & Bonds Equities Economy Investment Tips Fine Living

Recent Posts

  • BSP and Fed Preview: Expect twin cuts this month 
  • Investment Ideas: June 13, 2025 
  • Eye on Earnings: Telcos dial down on profits  
  • Eye on Earnings: Signals of consumer recovery provide a lift
  • Investment Ideas: June 11, 2025 

Recent Comments

No comments to show.

Archives

  • June 2025
  • May 2025
  • April 2025
  • March 2025
  • February 2025
  • January 2025
  • December 2024
  • November 2024
  • October 2024
  • September 2024
  • August 2024
  • July 2024
  • June 2024
  • May 2024
  • April 2024
  • March 2024
  • February 2024
  • January 2024
  • December 2023
  • November 2023
  • October 2023
  • September 2023
  • August 2023
  • July 2023
  • June 2023
  • May 2023
  • April 2023
  • March 2023
  • February 2023
  • January 2023
  • December 2022
  • November 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • August 2022
  • July 2022
  • June 2022
  • May 2022
  • March 2022
  • December 2021
  • October 2021

Categories

  • Bonds
  • BusinessWorld
  • Currencies
  • Economy
  • Equities
  • Estate Planning
  • Explainer
  • Featured Insight
  • Fine Living
  • Investment Tips
  • Markets
  • Portfolio Picks
  • Rates & Bonds
  • Retirement
  • Reuters
  • Spotlight
  • Stocks
  • Uncategorized

You are leaving Metrobank Wealth Insights

Please be aware that the external site policies may differ from our website Terms And Conditions and Privacy Policy. The next site will be opened in a new browser window or tab.

Cancel Proceed
Get in Touch

For inquiries, please call our Metrobank Contact Center at (02) 88-700-700 (domestic toll-free 1-800-1888-5775) or send an e-mail to customercare@metrobank.com.ph

Metrobank is regulated by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
Website: https://www.bsp.gov.ph

Quick Links
The Gist Webinars Wealth Manager Explainers
Markets
Currencies Rates & Bonds Equities Economy
Wealth
Investment Tips Fine Living Retirement
Portfolio Picks
Bonds Stocks
Others
Contact Us Privacy Statement Terms of Use
© 2025 Metrobank. All rights reserved.

Read this content. Log in or sign up.

​If you are an investor with us, log in first to your Metrobank Wealth Manager account. ​

If you are not yet a client, we can help you by clicking the SIGN UP button. ​

Login Sign Up