The 2024 US presidential elections reveal significant shifts that could impact markets and bring about rate cuts. Following the recently concluded US Presidential debate, polls show former US President Donald Trump leading incumbent Joe Biden, sparking discussions about potential Democratic candidate changes.

Polls suggest former First Lady Michelle Obama as the only Democrat who could potentially defeat Trump, though her candidacy remains unlikely at this time.

We have identified stark policy contrasts between the candidates. A second Trump term could bring protectionist policies, including a 10% tariff on all US imports, tax cuts, and deregulation. Biden’s policies lean towards corporate tax increases and targeted tariff hikes. These differences extend to foreign policy, with divergent approaches to Ukraine support and immigration reform, which can become economic indicators for investment.

We project that these policy variations could lead to the US elections having a significant effect on the stock market. Trump’s approach might escalate trade tensions and increase market volatility, while Biden’s policies offer more continuity but with their own economic challenges.

As the November election approaches, understanding its potential effects on the stock market is crucial for investors. For a comprehensive analysis, including detailed policy comparisons and market implications, we encourage you to download our full report.

ANNA DOMINIQUE CUDIA, MBA, CSS, is the Head of Markets Research at Metrobank’s Trust Banking Group, spearheading the generation and presentation of financial markets insights to internal and external clients. She used to be with Metrobank’s Investor Relations, where she brought in international awards and took part in various multi-billion peso and dollar capital raising activities. She holds a Master of Business Administration (Finance) degree, with distinction, from the University of London, and industry certifications in finance. She is a naturally curious person and likes to travel here and abroad.

DOMINIQUE “NICA” RAVELAS is a Markets Research Analyst at Metrobank’s Trust Banking Group, specializing in offshore macroeconomic research. Formerly a sales trader under Luzon International Sales Desk. She holds a bachelor’s degree in business administration major in Financial Management from Far Eastern University-Makati where she was awarded as one of the Top Outstanding Senior Students (TOSS). She is also a Certified UITF Sales Person (CUSP). Beyond her academic and professional pursuits, Nica enjoys shopping, travelling, and watching sunsets by the beach.