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THE GIST
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Global Philippines Fine Living
INSIGHTS
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
WEBINARS
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
DOWNLOADS
equities-3may23-2
Consensus Pricing
Consensus Pricing – June 2025
June 25, 2025 DOWNLOAD
Two people discussing a chart on a tablet
Economic Updates
Policy Rate Update: Dovish BSP Narrows IRD 
June 19, 2025 DOWNLOAD
grocery-2-aa
Economic Updates
Inflation Update: Prices rise even slower in May 
June 5, 2025 DOWNLOAD
View all Reports

Archives: Reuters Articles

Oil settles at one-month low on Gaza ceasefire hopes

Oil settles at one-month low on Gaza ceasefire hopes

HOUSTON – Oil prices settled over USD 2 lower on Friday at their lowest level since mid-June as investors eyed a possible ceasefire in Gaza, while a strengthened dollar drove values down further.

Brent crude prices settled down USD 2.48, or 2.9%, to USD 82.63 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped USD 2.69, or 3.3%, to USD 80.13.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said a long-sought ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas was within sight.

“I believe we’re inside the 10-yard line and driving toward the goal line in getting an agreement that would produce a ceasefire, get the hostages home, and put us on a better track to trying to build lasting peace and stability,” Blinken said, using a football analogy.

The war in Gaza has led investors to price in a risk premium when trading oil, as tensions threaten global supplies.

If a ceasefire is reached, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels could ease their attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, since the group declared the attacks in support of Hamas.

“Geopolitics is starting to ease just a little bit so that ought to work in our favor, following the news of this ceasefire,” said Tim Snyder, chief economist at Matador Economics.

The United Nations’ highest court said Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories and its settlements there are illegal and should be withdrawn as soon as possible, further buoying hopes of an end to the conflict.

The US dollar index climbed after stronger-than-expected data on the US labor market and manufacturing this week, pressuring oil prices, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

A stronger US currency dampens demand for dollar-denominated oil from buyers holding other currencies.

Chinese officials acknowledged the sweeping list of economic goals reemphasized at the end of a Communist Party meeting this week contained “many complex contradictions”, pointing to a bumpy road for policy implementation.

China’s economy grew by a slower-than-expected 4.7% in the second quarter, official data showed, sparking concerns over its demand for oil.

Lending some support to prices, energy services firm Baker Hughes said oil rigs fell by one to 477 this week, their lowest since December 2021.

A global tech outage disrupted operations in multiple industries, with airlines halting flights, some broadcasters going off the air, and sectors from banking to healthcare hit by system problems.

Meanwhile, two large oil tankers were on fire after colliding near Singapore.

Singapore is Asia’s biggest oil trading hub and the world’s largest bunkering port. Its surrounding waters are vital trade waterways between Asia and Europe and the Middle East and are among the busiest global sea lanes.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston; Ahmad Ghaddar; Additional reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan in Singapore; Editing by Arun Koyyur, Paul Simao, David Evans, and Rod Nickel)

 

Gold slips from all-time peak on profit taking, firmer dollar

Gold slips from all-time peak on profit taking, firmer dollar

Gold prices dipped more than 2% on Friday, as the dollar gained and profit-taking kicked in following bullion’s all-time peak hit earlier this week, which was fuelled by rising expectations of US interest rate cuts in September.

Spot gold was down 1.9% at USD 2,399.27 per ounce by 1758 GMT. Bullion hit an all-time high of USD 2,483.60 on Wednesday.

US gold futures settled 2.3% lower to USD 2,399.10.

The US dollar rose about 0.2% against its rivals, while benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also rose, putting pressure on bullion.

“Besides profit taking, the market is down on this narrative of a soft landing; it could put pressure on the price of gold, as investors will shift money from a safe to riskier investment,” said Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer at Allegiance Gold.

“We are seeing a lot more investment-driven decisions demand rise in gold,” he added.

Markets are now anticipating a 98% chance of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Non-yielding bullion’s appeal tends to shine in a low-interest rate environment.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this week that recent inflation readings “add somewhat to confidence” that the pace of price increases is returning to the central bank’s target in a sustainable fashion.

“If ETFs add gold as interest rates decline, then gold should rise meaningfully,” said Chris Mancini, associate portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund.

“If the weaker economy causes governments to stimulate, especially for infrastructure, then both gold and industrial metals will rise at the same time.”

On the physical side, Asian gold demand was sluggish this week, reflecting customers’ reluctance to make new purchases despite deep discounts, who were instead seen capitalizing on record-high bullion prices.

Spot silver fell about 3.2% to USD 29.11 per ounce, and platinum eased 0.3% to USD 964.75, while palladium lost 2.7% to USD 905.09. All three metals were headed for weekly declines.

(Reporting by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid, Krishna Chandra Eluri, and Mohammed Safi Shamsi)

 

Investors count on earning to calm USD 900 billion US tech rout

Investors count on earning to calm USD 900 billion US tech rout

NEW YORK – As earnings season goes into full swing, bullish investors hope solid corporate results will stem a tumble in technology shares that has cooled this year’s U.S. stock rally.

The S&P 500’s technology sector has dropped nearly 6% in just over a week, shedding about USD 900 billion in market value as growing expectations of interest rate cuts and a second Donald Trump presidency draw money away from this year’s winners and into sectors that have languished in 2024.

The S&P 500 has fared somewhat better, losing 1.6% in just over a week, with declines in tech partly offset by sharp gains in areas such as financials, industrials, and small caps. The benchmark index is up more than 16% so far this year.

Second-quarter earnings could help tech reclaim the spotlight. Tesla and Google-parent Alphabet both report on Tuesday, kicking off results from the “Magnificent Seven” megacap group of stocks that have propelled markets since early 2023. Microsoft and Apple are set to report the following week.

Big tech stocks “have been leading the charge, and it’s for a good reason,” said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “They’re making money, they’re growing earnings, they’re owning their niche.”

Strong results from the market’s leaders could assuage some of the worries that have recently dogged megacaps, including concerns over stretched valuations and an advance highlighted by eye-watering gains in stocks such as Nvidia, which is up 145% this year despite a recent dip.

On the other hand, signs that profits are flagging or artificial intelligence-related spending is less than anticipated would test the narrative of tech dominance that has boosted stocks this year. That could turn quickly into a problem for broader markets: Alphabet, Tesla, Amazon.com, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, and Nvidia have accounted for around 60% of the S&P 500’s gain this year.

Corporate results for the market’s leaders are expected to meet a high bar. The tech sector is projected to increase year-over-year earnings by 17%, and earnings for the communication services sector — which includes Alphabet and Facebook parent Meta — is seen rising about 22%. Such gains would outpace the 11% estimated rise for the S&P 500 overall, according to LSEG IBES.

Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, believes many investors were caught off guard by an inflation report earlier this month that all-but-cemented expectations of a September rate cut by the Fed, sparking a rotation into areas of the market that have struggled under tighter monetary policy.

The move out of tech accelerated this week, after a failed assassination attempt on Trump over the weekend appeared to boost his standing in the presidential race.

In addition, semiconductor shares were hit hard after a report earlier this week said the United States was mulling tighter curbs on exports of advanced semiconductor technology to China. The Philadelphia SE semiconductor index has tumbled about 8% since last week.

“What we’re advising investors to do is use some of the pullbacks in these areas as an opportunity to allocate on a longer-term basis,” said Saglimbene, who believes the upcoming earnings reports could ease the selling pressure on Big Tech.

To be sure, the widening of gains to other parts of the market has heartened some investors over the durability of the rally in stocks this year.

During the recent rotation, the number of stocks gaining compared to those declining over five days reached its highest rate since November, according to Ned Davis Research.

Historically, when gainers outnumber decliners by at least 2.5 times, as has been the case in this recent five-day period, the S&P 500 has rallied an average of 4.5% over the next three months, according to NDR.

“The risk is that mega-caps pull the popular averages lower, but history suggests that strong breadth improvements have been bullish for stocks moving forward,” Ned Davis strategists said in a report on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; additional reporting by Noel Randewich; Editing by Leslie Adler)

 

Hoping for calm after tech storm, Japan CPI eyed

Hoping for calm after tech storm, Japan CPI eyed

The global tech selloff spread across equity markets more broadly on Thursday, setting the tone for a choppy session in Asia on Friday as investors try and get to the end of a volatile week without incurring any more pain.

Japanese inflation will be the main local focus. These figures will go a long way to determining what the Bank of Japan does at its July 30-31 policy meeting – keep interest rates on hold, or hike another 10 basis points?

The MSCI World, Asia ex-Japan, and emerging market indices are on course for their biggest weekly losses in eight weeks, while Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index is set for its biggest weekly fall since April.

Tech has been bruised more severely, with a report that the United States is considering tighter curbs on exports of advanced chip technology to China weighing heavily on the sector.

Netflix on Thursday reported a stronger-than-expected rise in subscribers in the second quarter but cautioned that third-quarter gains would be lower than the same period in 2023. Its shares fell in after-hours trading.

This comes a day after Taiwan’s TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, raised its full-year revenue forecast on surging artificial intelligence-related demand for chips. Its shares still lost over 2% for a second straight day.

In China, investors are likely to be deeply underwhelmed by the outcome of the Communist Party’s Central Committee meeting, known as a plenum, which they were watching for signs of much-needed stimulus to revive the struggling economy.

Chinese leaders reiterated their wide-ranging economic policy goals – modernizing industry, expanding domestic demand, and curbing debt and property sector risks. But the detail on how this will be implemented was very thin on the ground.

The focus switches to Japanese inflation. Economists polled by Reuters reckon core inflation picked up in June to a 2.7% annual rate from 2.5% in May. That would mean inflation has been above the central bank’s 2% target for 27 months in a row.

Officials are worried that inflation is being powered by external factors rather than the domestic demand policymakers are trying to encourage.

But strong wage hikes have yet to be felt. Nearly 90% of Japanese households – the most in 16 years – expect prices to rise a year from now, according to surveys published last week.

More economists now reckon the BOJ will raise rates later this month by 10 basis points to 0.20%. This would follow its landmark move in March, when it raised rates for the first time in 17 years.

Japanese money markets are split fairly evenly between a hike or hold. Friday’s data could tip the balance one way or the other.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:

– Japan CPI inflation (June)

– Malaysia GDP (Q2)

– Philippine central bank governor Eli Remolona speaks

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever)

 

Wall Street ends sharply lower as anxiety rises, earnings heat up

Wall Street ends sharply lower as anxiety rises, earnings heat up

NEW YORK – US stocks tumbled on Thursday, reversing early gains as investors continued to rotate away from high-priced megacap growth stocks and second-quarter earnings season gathered steam.

All three major US stock indexes suffered losses, and the blue-chip Dow fell the most, halting a series of consecutive record-closing highs.

The sell-off resumed a day after the Nasdaq posted its biggest one-day drop since December 2022 and the chip sector suffered its largest daily percentage plunge since the pandemic-related shutdown panic of March 2020.

But anxiety remained elevated. The CBOE Market Volatility index, often called the “fear index,” touched its highest level since early May.

“What’s different from yesterday is you did see money going into other sectors … but today it’s a pretty broad selloff,” said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York.

The Russell 2000 fell for the second day in a row after an apparent rotation into smallcaps sent the index soaring 11.5% in its most robust five-day gain since April 2020.

“Over the last two weeks we’ve seen a rotation into other sectors including midcaps and smallcaps, which have been huge laggards,” Ghriskey added. “But today it’s reversing. The market is flailing around trying to find a direction.”

“Investors (are) just pulling back and saying ‘we’re going to cash out now, it’s been a great run.’ They’re unsure what’s going to happen in terms of politics,” Ghriskey said.

In economic news, initial jobless claims data landed above analysts’ estimates, providing further evidence that the labor market is softening. This is a necessary step toward putting inflation on a sustainable downward path, according to the US Federal Reserve.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 533.06 points, or 1.29%, to 40,665.02, the S&P 500 lost 43.68 points, or 0.78%, to 5,544.59 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 125.70 points, or 0.7%, to 17,871.22.

Of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, healthcare stocks suffered the largest percentage decline, while energy stocks were the sole gainers.

Domino’s Pizza tumbled 13.6% after falling short of estimates for quarterly same-store sales.

Homebuilder D.R. Horton beat profit estimates and delivered more new homes than expected, but tightened its annual forecast. Its shares jumped 10.1%.

The move also lifted the Philadelphia SE Housing index to a record high.

Warner Bros Discovery jumped 2.4% following a report that the company had discussed a plan to split its digital streaming and studio businesses from its legacy TV networks.

Streaming pioneer Netflix lost ground in extended trading after posting quarterly results.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 3.43-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.49-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 76 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 160 new highs and 56 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was 12.14 billion shares, compared with the 11.8-billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Reporting by Stephen Culp; Additional Reporting by Lisa Mattackal and Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Richard Chang and Rod Nickel)

 

Curve steepens as US jobless claims rise

Curve steepens as US jobless claims rise

A closely watched part of the Treasury yield curve steepened on Thursday as an uptick in unemployment claims added to the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to begin cutting interest rates in September.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 243,000 for the week ended July 13, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week.

“That’s a little bit weaker than expected … and you’re seeing the curve steepen a little bit on that,” said Dan Mulholland, head of rates – trading and sales at Crews & Associates in New York.

Interest rate-sensitive two-year yields were last up 3.4 basis points on the day at 4.463% and benchmark 10-year yields rose 4.4 basis points to 4.19%.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes steepened one basis point on the day to minus 27 basis points.

Betting on a steeper yield curve has been a popular trade on expectations that shorter-dated yields will decline faster than longer-dated ones as the Fed gets closer to cutting rates.

But high inflation relative to other more recent rate cut cycles, and the likelihood that an economic slowdown will not be severe, could limit the move, said Stephen Gola, head of US Treasuries Sales & Trading at StoneX Group in New York.

“The fiscal tailwinds are so strong that it’s going to be hard to get the kind of recession that’s going to force rates much lower,” he said.

Traders are currently pricing for the federal funds effective rate to fall to around 3.45%, from 5.33% today. It had traded near zero after the spread of COVID in 2020 until early 2022 and from around 2009 to 2015 in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

Yields have tumbled this month as softer jobs data and easing inflation boost the odds of rate cuts.

Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams on Wednesday cited progress in bringing inflation back closer to their 2% annual target, but also said that they want to see further improvement before cutting interest rates.

That leaves traders focused on economic releases for further clues on Fed policy.

A rate cut in September as seen as a sure thing, while a reduction at the Fed’s July 30-31 meeting is seen as having very low odds. Traders will watch comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the July meeting for any firm signals that a rate cut is coming in September.

Market participants are also focused on the US Presidential election in November, which Donald Trump is seen as the leading candidate to win.

Trump’s odds of winning the presidency increased after he survived an assassination attempt on Saturday. Online betting site PredictIt showed bets of an election win at 64 cents for Trump, up from Friday’s 60 cents, with a victory for Kamala Harris at 31 cents and Joe Biden at 11 cents.

The Treasury Department saw soft demand for a 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) on Thursday.

The debt sold at a high yield of 1.883%, more than one basis point above where it traded before the auction. Demand was 2.38 times the amount of debt on offer.

(Reporting By Karen Brettell, Editing by Nick Zieminski)

 

Oil prices steady as US rate-cut hopes contend with economic slowdown signals

Oil prices steady as US rate-cut hopes contend with economic slowdown signals

NEW YORK – Oil prices steadied on Thursday as investors wrestled with mixed signals about crude demand, with concerns about an economic slowdown in the US contending with rising expectations the Federal Reserve would soon cut interest rates.

Brent futures settled at USD 85.11 a barrel, rising 3 cents, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 3 cents to settle at USD 82.82 a barrel. Both benchmarks were up in the previous trading session.

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, while initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased by 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 243,000 for the week ended July 1.

The data strengthened the case for the Fed to speed up rate-cutting plans, which could spur more spending on oil.

“I believe that healthy expectations of a Fed rate cut in the not-so-distant future will limit downside,” Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM told Reuters.

Fed officials said on Wednesday the US central bank is closer to cutting rates given inflation’s improved trajectory and a labor market in better balance, possibly setting the stage for a reduction in borrowing costs in September.

US economic activity expanded at a slight to modest pace from late May through early July, with firms expecting slower growth ahead, according to a report released by the Fed on Wednesday.

The rising jobless claims, however, also signaled an economic easing that could cut into crude demand, and kept oil prices from moving higher, said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital in New York.

“The reality on the ground is that we’ve got a slowing economy that could potentially soften crude oil demand,” Kilduff said.

Despite government data on Wednesday that showed US crude inventories fell by 4.9 million barrels last week, more than forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll, weak US gasoline demand kept oil prices from moving higher, Kilduff said.

Economic growth in China, which is the biggest importer of crude oil, also weighed on prices. Chinese leaders signaled on Thursday that Beijing would stay the course with economic policy, though few concrete details were disclosed. Together, those events helped to check investor hopes of a push to boost consumption in the world’s second-largest economy.

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged as expected and gave no hints about its next move, arguing that domestic price pressures remain high and inflation will be above its target well into next year.

A mini OPEC+ ministerial meeting scheduled for early August, meanwhile, is unlikely to recommend changing the group’s oil output policy, which includes a plan to start unwinding one layer of crude output cuts from October, three sources told Reuters.

One of the three OPEC+ sources, all of whom declined to be identified by name, said the meeting would serve as a “pulse check” for the health of the market.

(Reporting by Laila Kearney, Paul Carsten and Alex Lawler in London, Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru, Arathy Somasekhar in Houston, and Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Editing by David Goodman, Elaine Hardcastle, Paul Simao, Jane Merriman, and Rod Nickel)

 

Volatility returns as tech tanks, yen spikes

Volatility returns as tech tanks, yen spikes

Asian markets are set to open in the red on Thursday following Wednesday’s global selloff, as the prospect of more severe US trade curbs puts the frighteners on investors and squeezes the tech sector in particular.

Chipmaker and tech stocks in Asia face a double whammy as investors weigh a report that the United States may restrict imports of technology to China, and comments from Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump that production hub Taiwan should pay the US for its defense.

The S&P 500 on Wednesday registered its biggest fall since April, the tech-heavy Nasdaq had its biggest fall since December 2022, while the Philadelphia semiconductor index lost nearly 7%, its worst day since March 2020.

The Hang Seng tech index and Taiwan’s semiconductor bellwether TSMC will be under fire on Thursday.

Thursday’s regional calendar sees the release of trade figures from Japan and Malaysia, and labor market data from Australia and Hong Kong. Investors in China await policy news from a key leadership gathering in Beijing that is expected to end on Thursday.

But global sentiment is likely to drive local markets and the rotation out of tech stocks into other sectors – the Dow hit another record high – is unlikely to prevent further losses.

In currencies, the yen is on the rise after suspected intervention from Japan pushed it to a one-month high 156.00 per dollar on Wednesday. It looks like Tokyo’s third bout of intervention in a week, in which time the dollar has tumbled six ‘big figures’ from 162.00 yen.

Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Wednesday he would have to respond if speculators cause “excessive” moves in the currency market and that there was no limit to how often authorities could intervene, Kyodo News reported.

Daily money market indicators from the Bank of Japan can indicate the scale of any potential action, but official confirmation on intervention and amounts spent only come at the end of every month.

The dollar is on the defensive more broadly, hitting a four-month low against a basket of major currencies with traders pointing to Trump’s comments in a Bloomberg interview on the currency’s recent strength as a factor behind its slide.

Bond yields are lower too after top Fed officials said they are ‘closer’ to cutting interest rates, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit at a four-month low on Wednesday.

Another upbeat development for investors on Wednesday saw the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking estimate for second-quarter growth rise again, to 2.7%. It was 2.0% last week.

None of that will matter much in the near term, however, if the tech-fueled selloff across US and global equity markets persists. Investors in Asia should buckle up for a rocky ride on Thursday.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

– Japan trade (June)

– Australia unemployment (June)

– ECB policy meeting

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever)

 

Yields fall as Fed officials cite inflation progress

Yields fall as Fed officials cite inflation progress

US Treasury yields fell to a four-month low on Wednesday after top Federal Reserve officials cited progress in inflation easing closer to their 2% target, setting the stage for a likely first interest rate cut in September.

A July rate cut, however, was seen as an even more remote prospect after the officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, also said that they wanted to see further improvement.

“This commentary that they’re doing today is like look, don’t expect any (cut in) July, that takes that off the table,” said Matt Eagan, head of the full discretion team at Loomis, Sayles and Company in Boston.

The odds of a rate cut at the Fed’s July 30-31 meeting slipped to 5%, from around 8% on Tuesday, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. A rate reduction by September is seen as certain, with a second cut or third cut by December also expected.

“The Fed is sticking with the messaging that it still wants to see more good data,” said Vail Hartman, US rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets in New York. “This did effectively take a July move off the table, but it is still leaving September very much a live meeting.”

Softer jobs data and easing inflation in recent weeks have boosted the odds of an impending rate cut.

Benchmark 10-year yields fell 2 basis points to 4.146%, the lowest since March 13.

Two-year yields dipped 1.6 basis points to 4.43%.

Repositioning for a potential victory by Donald Trump at November’s US presidential election continued to ebb on Wednesday.

Trump’s odds of winning the presidency increased after he survived an assassination attempt on Saturday. Online betting site PredictIt showed bets of an election win at 67 cents for Trump, up from Friday’s 60 cents, with a victory for Joe Biden at 28 cents.

Analysts say that a Trump presidency could reignite inflation as a result of more pro-business policies, tax cuts, and tariffs.

That sent longer-dated yields higher on Monday and caused a sharp steepening in the Treasury yield curve.

“The steepener has been a very crowded trade,” said Eagan, referring to traders buying shorter-dated debt and selling longer-dated Treasuries.

After Monday’s move the steepening has reversed on what was likely profit-taking, he said.

Longer-dated yields are expected to become more elevated relative to shorter-dated ones as the US budget deficit worsens, which is expected under a Trump or Biden presidency and will increase Treasury supply.

“No matter which candidate wins there‘s going to be a heck of a lot more Treasuries that need to clear the market,” said Eagan.

Shorter-dated Treasuries are expected to perform relatively better as the Fed cuts rates.

The inversion in the closely watched two-year, 10-year Treasury yield curve widened to minus 29 basis points after reaching minus 22 basis points on Monday, the smallest inversion since January.

The gap between two-year and 30-year yields was at minus 7 basis points, after turning positive on Monday for the first time since January.

The Treasury saw solid demand for a USD 13 billion sale of 20-year bonds on Wednesday, which sold at a high yield of 4.466%, close to where they had traded before the auction. Demand was 2.68 times the amount of debt on offer.

The US government will also sell USD 19 billion in 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) on Thursday.

(Reporting By Karen Brettell; editing by Philippa Fletcher and Nick Zieminski)

Japan’s yen posts outsized gains, traders suspect new bout of intervention

Japan’s yen posts outsized gains, traders suspect new bout of intervention

LONDON – The yen strengthened steadily against the dollar on Wednesday, with traders suspecting another round of official buying after Japanese authorities last week likely stepped in to haul the currency away from 38-year lows.

The dollar was last down 1.22% at 156.34, its lowest in around a month. The euro was also down 0.9%.

The yen has posted several outsized moves in recent days, appreciating sharply on Thursday and Friday from 38-year lows of 161.96 per dollar, sudden rallies that market participants said had the hallmarks of currency intervention.

Bank of Japan data released on Tuesday suggested Tokyo may have spent 2.14 trillion yen (USD 13.5 billion) intervening on Friday. Combined with the estimated amount spent on Thursday, Japan is suspected to have bought nearly 6 trillion yen via intervention last week.

Japan’s Ministry of Finance was not immediately available for comment when contacted earlier by Reuters. Authorities have recently made it standard practice to not confirm whether they stepped in.

(Reporting by the EMEA and Asia markets teams, writing by Alun John; editing by Amanda Cooper)

 

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