Taking chips off the table, seeking China clarity

Investors go into Wednesday in a cautious frame of mind as they continue to digest the likely impact of China’s policy signal this week, and following a ‘risk off’ day that saw stocks fall and the dollar and bond yields rise.

Asia’s economic calendar on Wednesday is light, with only Japanese producer inflation and South Korean unemployment figures on tap. Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser also speaks, following the bank’s policy decision on Tuesday.

With US inflation figures to be released later on Wednesday after Asian markets close, potentially a key factor in whether the Fed cuts rates next week or not, investors may be inclined to hold the line and keep risk exposure to a minimum.

Tuesday’s market moves would feed into that mindset. World stocks fell for a second day in a row, something that last happened a month ago, while the rise in bond yields and the dollar tightened financial conditions further.

Investors may be extra sensitive to any rise in bond yields this week, as the US Treasury sells USD 125 billion of notes and USD 85 billion of bills.

Japanese government bond yields and the yen may also be sensitive to Wednesday’s producer price numbers from Japan, especially after the substantial upward revision to third-quarter GDP growth on Monday.

Meanwhile, investors and market watchers continue to try to figure out if Beijing’s historic shift in its monetary and fiscal policy stance this week will be matched by equally bold action.

The economy certainly needs it. The latest trade figures on Tuesday were uniformly weak, with the near-4% year-on-year slump in imports last month particularly alarming. That was significantly worse than the bleakest forecast in a Reuters survey of 21 economists of a 3% decline, and highlights how brittle domestic demand is.

The 10-year Chinese bond yield fell further on Tuesday to a new all-time low of 1.877%. It has fallen more than 15 basis points so far this month, and it is on track for its steepest monthly fall since July 2021.

Some analysts reckon the decline this week is a positive reaction to Beijing’s shift, as it shows investors are anticipating a significant loosening of monetary policy soon.

There may be something to that, and substantial policy easing could indeed reflate growth and asset prices. But it’s hard to disentangle the move in yields from the latest trade and inflation data that are a reminder of just how heavy the deflationary and weak demand pressures bearing down on the economy actually are.

The Indian rupee, meanwhile, is anchored at a record low, with rate cut hopes rising after the government named career civil servant Sanjay Malhotra to replace outgoing Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

– South Korea unemployment (November)

– RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaks

– Japan producer inflation (November)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever)

RBA decides, debate sparks over China policy shift

A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

The Reserve Bank of Australia‘s interest rate decision takes center stage on Tuesday, while debate intensifies over the likely success – or otherwise – of China’s surprise announcement that it plans to implement looser monetary and fiscal policy.

The RBA is widely expected to keep its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, so the focus will be on when Governor Michele Bullock signals the easing cycle might start.

Economists polled by Reuters reckon it will be some time in the second quarter, and Aussie money markets are pointing to a quarter point cut on April 1.Sentiment across Asia may be dented by Wall Street’s slide on Monday, but investors continue to digest the first shift in China’s broad policy stance since 2010.

The Politburo’s recommendation that a “more proactive” fiscal policy and “moderately loose” monetary policy be followed may not be on the same scale as Mario Draghi’s famous “whatever it takes” pledge to save the euro in 2012. But it could still be hugely significant in China’s battle to emerge from the property bust, deflation and sub-par growth.

China bulls argue that, following the blitz of fiscal and market-supporting liquidity measures earlier this year, Beijing’s commitment to get the economy back on track can no longer be questioned.

Although it will take time for policies to take effect, the dial has definitely shifted, so investors would do well to get in and buy Chinese equities now.

Those of a more cautious persuasion will say actions speak louder than words, and point out that Beijing has promised much in recent years but always under-delivered. Unless Beijing assumes the banking sector’s bad loans and bails out the banks, nothing will materially change.

Chinese stocks are still considerably higher than they were before the first stimulus and market support measures were announced in September, and billionaire hedge fund manager David Tepper’s subsequent “buy everything” call on China. China’s economic surprises index has bounced back too.

But economists remain skeptical over the 2025 growth outlook and Chinese bond yields are sinking – the 10-year yield is below 2% for the first time on record, and the 30-year yield is below the Japanese equivalent for the first time in around 20 years. Hardly the signs of recovery.

In addition, any optimism may be tempered by the latest inflation figures which suggest Beijing’s efforts to revive economic activity and demand are having a limited impact so far.

Sino-US trade tensions are bubbling up again too. China said on Monday it has launched an investigation into Nvidia Corp over suspected violations of the country’s anti-monopoly law. The move is widely seen as a retaliatory shot against Washington’s latest curbs on the Chinese chip sector.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:

– Australia’s interest rate decision

– China trade (November)

– Taiwan’s TSMC monthly sales announcement

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever;)

US Treasury yields rise ahead of inflation data

US Treasury yields rose on Monday as traders waited on key inflation data due this week to see whether stubbornly high price pressures could derail expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week.

The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its Dec. 17-18 meeting, with a pause then seen as likely in January.

But inflation is key to whether the Fed will continue to cut rates.

Fed officials including Chair Jerome Powell have said that recent upticks in its preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures data reflect a bumpy path to its 2% annual target, but don’t change the overall trend.

“If we see a convincing uptick that the Fed isn’t able to continue using that bumpy excuse on, then that will call into question whether or not the Fed can deliver a rate cut next week,” said Vail Hartman, US rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets in New York.

Hartman said a solid to high 0.4% gain in core consumer prices could raise doubts over a cut next week, but rate expectations will also depend on producer prices.

Economists expect consumer prices released on Wednesday will show that both headline and core prices rose by 0.3% in November, for an annual gain of 2.7% and 3.3%, respectively.

Producer prices released on Thursday are expected to show a 0.2% monthly increase in November in both headline and core, for a 2.6% and 3.2% annual increase.

The next PCE release is due on Dec. 20.

Benchmark 10-year yields were last up 4.2 basis points at 4.195%. Interest rate-sensitive two-year yields rose 2.6 basis points to 4.124%.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes steepened two basis points to 7 basis points.

Traders added to bets of a December rate cut after jobs data for November released on Friday showed some warning signs that the labor market was weakening. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% despite strong jobs gains during the month.

Some underlying details in the report, including a weaker household survey, also pointed to declining labor market strength.

“The aggregate data is conforming with the whole slowdown theme,” said Hartman.

Fed officials are now in a blackout period before next week’s meeting.

Traders are also watching geopolitical events after rebels seized the Syrian capital of Damascus.

Risk appetite was boosted on news that China will adopt an “appropriately loose” monetary policy next year, the first easing of its stance in some 14 years, alongside a more proactive fiscal policy to spur economic growth.

The US Treasury Department will sell USD 119 billion in new coupon-bearing supply this week. This will include USD 58 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, USD 39 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday and USD 22 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.

(Reporting By Karen Brettell; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

Oil rises over 1% on ouster of Syria’s Assad, Chinese monetary policy

HOUSTON – Oil prices climbed more than 1% on Monday on higher geopolitical risk after the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and as top importer China flagged its first move towards a loosened monetary policy stance since 2010.

Brent crude futures settled USD 1.02, or 1.4%, higher at USD 72.14 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up USD 1.17, or 1.7%, to USD 68.37.

“Events in Syria over the weekend could impact the crude market and increase the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices in the weeks and months to come amid yet more instability in the Middle East region,” said Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy’s head of geopolitical analysis.

Syrian rebels said on state television on Sunday they had ousted Assad, ending a 50-year family dynasty and raising fears of more instability in a region gripped by war.

While Syria is not a major oil producer, it holds geopolitical clout due to its location and ties with Russia and Iran, and mixed with the tensions elsewhere in the region, the regime change has potential to spill into neighboring territories, Leon said.

In early signs of disruptions in the oil market, a tanker carrying Iranian oil to Syria turned around in the Red Sea, ship-tracking data showed.

Meanwhile, China will step up “unconventional” counter-cyclical adjustments, focusing on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption, state media Xinhua reported, citing a readout of a meeting of top Communist Party officials, the Politburo.

China’s growth has stalled as a slump in the property market has hit confidence and consumption. Loosening policy refers to actions by a central bank or government to boost growth, such as increasing money supply, lowering interest rates, and implementing fiscal stimulus.

“We see a commodity-price boom if China indeed follows through with the promises of looser monetary policy and the possibility that they will do whatever it takes to stimulate the economy,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group.

China’s slowdown was a factor behind the decision of oil producers’ group OPEC+ last week to postpone plans for higher output until April.

Weighing on prices, leading exporter Saudi Aramco on Sunday reduced its January 2025 prices for Asian buyers to their lowest level since early 2021, as markets worried it could signal weak demand.

Traders also remained focused on US inflation data expected later this week that could cement a December interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.

Lower interest rates decrease the cost of borrowing, which can boost economic activity and spur demand for oil.

(Reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru, Enes Tunagur in London, Yuka Obayashi in Tokyo and Siyi Liu in Singapore; Editing by Jason Neely, Mark Potter, Alexander Smith, Barbara Lewis and Rod Nickel)

US 10-year yields fall to six-week low after payrolls, markets see green light to December cut

NEW YORK – US Treasuries yield fell to a six-week low after the release of November payrolls data, as investors considered the numbers as a green light to one more rate cut by the Federal Reserve on its December 17-18 meeting.

The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note fell 3.3 basis points to 4.149%. The front end of the curve had a sharper drop, with the two-year US Treasury yield falling 5 basis points to 4.096%.

The yield on the 10-year note fell to 4.126% during the session, its lowest since Oct. 21, while the 2-year yield slumped to 4.077%, a level not seen since Nov. 1.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes US2US10=TWEB steepened after to 5.1 points. Just before the payrolls release, the yield curve inverted to negative 7.1 basis points, the lowest in three months.

Odds of a 25-basis points rate cut in the December meeting jumped to 89% on Friday, up from 70% late on Thursday, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool.

“It looks like there’s no reason to worry about an imminent recession and there’s no reason for the Fed to take a pause on cuts quite yet,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 jobs last month after rising an upwardly revised 36,000 in October, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. But it did not seem to signal a material shift in labor market conditions.

“Data this morning was a Thanksgiving buffet with payrolls spot on, revisions positive, but unemployment ticking higher despite the participation rate falling. This print doesn’t kill the holiday spirit and the Fed remains on track to deliver a cut in December.”, said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi sector investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Staney Wealth Management said although the economy is still producing a healthy amount of job and income gains, “a further increase in the unemployment rate tempers some of the shine in the labor market and gives the Fed what it needs to cut rates in December.”

The 10-year yields fell 4.4 basis points this week and the 2-year yields, 7.6 basis points.

Despite rising expectations the central bank will cut rates at its upcoming meeting, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle
Bowman said inflation risks to the economy remain real and labor market data hard to interpret, and that requires caution with further decisions on central bank rate cuts.

In addition, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee remained noncommittal on whether he would support an interest rate cut at the central bank’s meeting this month, but reiterated to his view that interest rates will fall over the next 12 months.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.340% after closing at 2.369% on December 5.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.258%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.3% a year for the next decade.

(Reporting by Tatiana Bautzer, Chuck Mikolajczak, Davide Barbuscia and Lawrence Delevigne
Editing by Mark Potter and Nick Zieminski)

China inflation eyed, global political uncertainty bubbling up

A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Attention turns to China on Monday and the release of November inflation data, with global investor sentiment broadly upbeat as the relentless rally on Wall Street continues but tempered by an increasingly volatile geopolitical backdrop.

The toppling of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the uncertainty that unleashes on an already volatile Middle East, criminal charges against South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, and France’s political chaos are all potential reasons for investors to play it safe.

If so, US Treasuries and other government bonds, gold and the dollar may all see increased interest in early trading on Monday. The fast-moving events in South Korea could ripple across Asia, and the country’s finance ministry and central bank are expected to do all they can to ensure financial stability and protect the won.

The currency has weakened around 10% since the end of September, hitting a two-year low last week. A move through 1,445 won per dollar, which is eminently possible, will mark its weakest level since the global financial crisis in early 2009.

On the other hand, the prospect of further interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve and falling Treasury bond yields, combined with solid US employment figures on Friday, delivered yet another record high on Wall Street.

Global FX volatility may be on the rise, but measures of US equity and bond market volatility are the lowest in months. As long as that remains the case, Wall Street seems set to end a remarkable year on a firm footing.

Investors in Asia on Monday have their first opportunity to react to Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report which showed solid job growth but an uptick in the unemployment rate last month.

Rates traders appeared to have put more weight on the unemployment rate – they now fully expect a quarter point rate cut from the Fed on Dec. 18, and priced in an extra 10 bps of easing over the course of next year.

The main data focus on Monday in Asia will be consumer and producer price inflation from China. The pace of monthly consumer deflation is expected to have accelerated to -0.4% from -0.3%, and this would be the deepest rate of month-on-month price declines since March. Annual inflation is seen rising to 0.5% from 0.3%.

Producer prices, however, are expected to remain deep in deflationary territory with factory gate prices falling at an annual rate of 2.8% in November, little changed from October’s 2.9% fall.

Investors will also now be looking ahead to China’s upcoming Politburo meeting, where Beijing’s top policymakers will set out their priorities for the coming year. For investors, the government’s 2025 growth target and budget will be two of the most important.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:

– China producer, consumer inflation (November)

– Japan GDP (Q3, revised)

– Taiwan trade (November)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever
Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

US Treasury yields mixed as investors wait for payrolls

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields were mixed on Thursday, with those on the front end of the curve trading higher, as investors looked ahead to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report that could help determine the pace of the Federal Reserve’s current easing cycle.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 2.7 basis points to 4.148%. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury note reversed early gains and fell 0.6 basis points to 4.176% after the jobless claims report released on Thursday.

Markets slightly reduced the odds of a 25-basis point rate cut in this month’s meeting. CME’s FedWatch tool showed on Thursday a 70% chance of a December rate cut, lower than the 75% chance late on Wednesday.

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week, suggesting the labor market continued to steadily cool. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 224,000 for the week ended Nov. 30, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims for the latest week.

“Jobless claims were much ado about nothing; even with the 9,000 bump in the most recent filing week, claims remain at a very low level”, said Jason Ware, chief investment officer and chief economist at Albion Financial Group in Salt Lake City.

Markets are now shifting focus to data that can show a clearer picture of the job market, the nonfarm payrolls expected for Friday morning. Next week will have inflation indexes ahead of the December 17-18 Federal Reserve meeting.

“Between now and the meeting, there’s so much economic data, the payrolls on Friday, CPI and PPI next week, markets will look at the numbers as crucial to (the) Fed’s decision,” said Mike Lorizio, senior fixed income trader at Manulife Investment Management in Boston. Albion’s Ware thinks the labor market data are more important now to the Fed’s decision than the inflation data.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared to signal on Wednesday support for a slower pace of rate cuts ahead, when he said the economy was stronger at this point than the central bank had expected in September. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly added there was “no sense of urgency” on reducing borrowing costs further.

The breakeven rate on 10-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.271%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.3% a year for the next decade.

(Reporting by Tatiana Bautzer; Editing by Jonathan Oatis and Diane Craft)

Oil falls as investors weigh ample 2025 supply outlook, delayed OPEC+ output hike

HOUSTON – Oil prices fell on Thursday as investors weighed an ample supply outlook for next year against OPEC+ delaying its planned output increase by three months to April 2025.

Brent crude settled down 22 cents, or 0.3%, at USD 72.09 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled down 24 cents, or 0.35%, at USD 68.30 a barrel.

OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies including Russia, had been planning to start unwinding cuts from October 2024, but slowing global demand and booming production outside of the group forced it to postpone the plans on several occasions.

“There were questions coming into the meeting as to whether there was cohesion or not (among OPEC+), they are definitely coming out of this unified but this also shows the challenging supply landscape they have before them while trying to prop up this market,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York.

The gradual unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of cuts will start from next April with monthly increases of 138,000 bpd, according to Reuters calculations, and lasting 18 months until September 2026. OPEC+ pumps around half the world’s oil.

“The overall signal to the market is constructive and will likely prevent any price downsides in the short term,” Rystad Energy’s global head of commodity markets for oil, Mukesh Sahdev, said in a note on Thursday.

But analysts pointed to an ample supply outlook for 2025 as offsetting support from Thursday’s OPEC+ decision.

“The market is facing a surplus, there is no shortage of oil and there is not really any flashing sign of what to look forward to in the future to rally prices,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho.

Meanwhile, a cooling US dollar was lending some support on Thursday. And expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this month will further ease the dollar’s strength and support the oil market, StoneX energy analyst Alex Hodes said in a note on Thursday.

A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies, hurting demand.

In the Middle East, Israel said on Tuesday it would return to war with Hezbollah if their truce collapses and its attacks would go deeper into Lebanon and target the state itself.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy has traveled to Qatar and Israel to kick-start the US president-elect’s diplomatic push to help reach a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal before he takes office on Jan. 20, a source briefed on the talks told Reuters.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, Paul Carsten in London, Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru, and Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Additional reporting by Yuka Obayashi in Tokyo and Robert Harvey and Anna Hirtenstein in London; editing by David Evans, Jonathan Oatis, and Deepa Babington)

Indexes dip with UnitedHealth, tech, ahead of jobs report

US stocks ended lower on Thursday, with UnitedHealth down sharply and technology shares easing as investors awaited Friday’s jobs report.

The S&P 500 technology index fell 0.2% after hitting a record closing high on Wednesday, when all three major US stock indexes also notched closing highs.

Shares of Synopsys fell 12.4% after the chip design software firm forecast fiscal 2025 revenue below Wall Street expectations, in part due to a slump in China sales.

UnitedHealth’s UNH.N stock dropped 5.2% and was the biggest weight on the Dow and S&P 500, while the S&P 500 healthcare index fell 1.1%. Shares of Cigna were down 2.3%, while Molina Healthcare fell 3.2%.

Health insurance companies are reassessing the risks for their top executives the day after the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson in Manhattan. UnitedHealthcare is part of UnitedHealth Group.

Forecasters believe Friday’s employment report will show nonfarm payrolls increased by 200,000 jobs in November, a Reuters survey showed. In October, payrolls rose 12,000, the smallest rise since December 2020.

Data earlier in the day showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week.

Daniel Morgan, portfolio manager at Synovus Trust in Atlanta, Georgia, said investors are digesting recent economic data and looking ahead to Friday’s employment report.

“Obviously the Street is going to be trading on what the Fed is going to do,” he said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 248.33 points, or 0.55%, to 44,765.71, the S&P 500 lost 11.38 points, or 0.19%, to 6,075.11 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 34.86 points, or 0.18%, to 19,700.26.

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US economy is stronger than the central bank had expected when it started cutting rates in September, and he appeared to signal support for a slower pace of reductions.

Markets are pricing in about a 70% chance of a quarter-point cut in interest rates this month.

Cryptocurrency and blockchain-related stocks lost steam after surging earlier in the day when bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, stormed above the USD 100,000 mark for the first time.

MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, ended down 4.8%.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.25-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 378 new highs and 74 new lows on the NYSE.

On the Nasdaq, 1,488 stocks rose and 2,833 fell as declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.9-to-1 ratio.

Volume on US exchanges was 14.12 billion shares, compared with the roughly 14.7 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Additional reporting by Shashwat Chauhan and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja Desai, Maju Samuel, and David Gregorio)

Gold slips as higher yields weigh; focus turns to US payrolls

Gold prices dipped on Thursday as US Treasury yields firmed after the release of weekly jobless claims data, while markets awaited US non-farm payrolls figures for fresh insights into the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rate cuts.

Spot gold was down 0.7% at USD 2,630.30 per ounce, as of 02:03 p.m. ET (1903 GMT). US gold futures settled 1% lower at USD 2,648.40.

“We’re in a period of stagnation, some range bound activity at the moment, searching for that next piece of data or that next stimuli that could push gold out of this range,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

Benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR edged up 0.3%, while bitcoin BTC= catapulted above USD 100,000 for the first time on Thursday.

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week, suggesting the labour market continued to steadily cool.

Investors’ focus now shifts to Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls, which is likely to increase by 200,000 jobs in the month after rising by only 12,000 in October, for further clarity on the interest rate path.

A robust NFP number is more or less priced in and if we see weakness in the report, it could add some support to gold prices, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the US economy is stronger than expected and suggested a more cautious stance towards interest rate cuts.

Traders are pricing in a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s Dec. 17-18 meeting. Bullion, which offers no yield, tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environments.

Spot silver was down 0.5% at USD 31.12 per ounce, platinum fell 0.4% to USD 936.95 and palladium lost 1.4% to USD 964.40.

“Auto catalyst demand substitution from palladium to platinum has been the key headwind for palladium and is likely to continue into 2026,” ANZ analysts said in a note.

(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri and Shailesh Kuber)

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