Gold pauses for breath after record run on safe-haven demand

Gold prices eased on Tuesday on profit-taking but remained near record highs as investors turned to the safe-haven asset ahead of President Donald Trump’s planned announcement of sweeping tariffs on countries that have a trade imbalance with the US

Spot gold was down 0.3% at USD 3,113.43 per ounce as of 1:46 p.m. ET (1746 GMT), after hitting an all-time high of USD 3,148.88 earlier in the day.

US gold futures settled 0.1% lower at USD 3,146.

It’s “not surprising to see a little bit of profit taking, particularly given that the market had become rather overbought … I don’t really see much of a change in the fundamentals … it’s a perfect storm for gold,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Markets and consumers are waiting for details of Trump’s planned tariffs, set to be announced on Wednesday. White House aides have drafted plans for tariffs of around 20% on most US imports, the Washington Post reported Tuesday.

Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties, closed out its strongest quarter since 1986 on Monday, and climbed over USD 3,100/ounce, marking one of the most significant upswings in the precious metal’s history.

Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US recession to 35% from 20% on Monday, and said it expected more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Non-yielding bullion thrives in a low-interest-rate environment.

“We continue to see the gold prices moving higher,” due in part to increasing gold holdings by physically backed ETFs and robust central bank purchases, said Ryan McIntyre, senior portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management.

On a technical basis, gold’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above 70, indicating the metal is overbought.

Job openings fell to 7.568 million by the end of February, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a Tuesday report, compared with economists’ expectation of 7.616 million. Investors are also awaiting Friday’s non-farm payrolls report for cues on the Fed’s rate cut trajectory.

Silver fell 1.4% to USD 33.6 an ounce, platinum was down 0.8% at USD 984.64. Palladium fell 0.2% to USD 981.0.

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; additional reporting by Ishaan Arora; Editing by David Evans, Vijay Kishore, and Shreya Biswas)

How hedge funds have positioned for Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’

LONDON – Hedge funds have scaled back risky bets and sought safety, data from Goldman Sachs shows, ahead of this week’s widely anticipated announcement by US President Donald Trump on reciprocal tariffs that have fueled trade war fears.

Trump has for weeks flagged April 2 as a “Liberation Day” delivery date for his most ambitious actions yet to upend more than half a century of global trade norms, which saw barriers to international commerce fall, but in ways the president believes disadvantaged American goods and workers.

White House aides have drafted plans for tariffs of about 20% on most of the USD 3 trillion of goods imported annually to the US, the Washington Post reported on Tuesday.

Higher tariffs and lower earnings estimates are likely to shrink the S&P 500’s three-month returns by 5%, but US markets should recover over the next year, a Goldman client note on Monday and seen by Reuters on Tuesday showed.

Here’s what Goldman Sachs prime brokerage says about hedge fund positioning. A prime brokerage desk lends money to hedge funds for trading and tracks their activities.

1/ RETREAT

Hedge funds have reduced their net exposure across all regions, especially in Europe, followed by emerging markets and Asia.

The amount traded on transparent and non-transparent stock exchanges trended lower in March, shows data from BMLL Technologies, bar a large options expiry on March 21. Such dates often see larger volumes traded as the derivatives that trade off their prices are closed.

2/ AVOID EMERGING MARKETS

Hedge funds have sold out of major emerging markets.

And so far this year, they have maintained more short than long positions in emerging market stocks in Latin America and Asia.

In Asia, stocks have been particularly sold in large amounts in March, Goldman Sachs data showed. A short position expects an asset price to decline, a long bet hopes it will rise.

3/ CYCLING OUT OF CYCLICALS

Hedge funds have cut their positions in stocks whose performance is closely tied to the economic cycle. These companies, like auto-parts manufacturers, some jewelry brands, and home furnishing stores typically struggle when consumers have less money to spend.

That move coincides with increased concern that tariffs are raising US recession risks.

4/ U-TURN

Hedge funds have started selling European auto stocks, having snapped them up until early March, the Goldman data showed.

Speculators have piled into short positions on the sector since Trump last week made public a plan to implement a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks from April 3. A duty on auto parts begins on May 3.

The ratio of long positions compared to short bets against the auto sector are close to historic lows, said Goldman.

5/ METAL HEADS

Hedge funds have been net buyers in large amounts in recent weeks of company stocks that are sensitive to metals prices, said Goldman.

Hedge fund holdings in these names are at multi-year highs said the note. The note did not mention company names.

(Reporting by Nell Mackenzie; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe and Barbara Lewis)

Oil eases off five-week highs as traders weigh impact of imminent Trump tariffs

NEW YORK – Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday as traders braced for reciprocal tariffs that US President Donald Trump is due to announce on Wednesday, which could intensify a global trade war.

However, Trump’s threats to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil and to attack Iran fueled supply worries, limiting losses.

Brent futures settled down 28 cents, or 0.37%, at USD 74.49 a barrel. The session high was above USD 75 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 28 cents, or 0.39%, to USD 71.20.

On Monday, the contracts settled at five-week highs.

The White House provided no details about the size and scope of tariffs that it confirmed Trump will impose on Wednesday.

“The market is getting a little jittery with less than 24 hours to go,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. “We may lose some Mexican, Venezuela, and Canadian supplies, but there is definitely a chance that demand destruction could outpace those barrels,” he added.

A Reuters poll of 49 economists and analysts in March projected that oil prices would remain under pressure this year from US tariffs and economic slowdowns in India and China, while OPEC+ increases supply.

Slower global growth would dent fuel demand, which might offset any reduction in supply due to Trump’s threats.

“While stricter sanctions on Iran, Venezuela, and Russia could constrain global supply, the US tariffs are likely to dampen global energy demand and slow economic growth, which in turn will affect oil demand further out on the curve,” SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye said. “As a result, betting on a clear direction for the market has been – and remains – challenging.”

Trump on Sunday said he would impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on Russian oil buyers if Moscow tried to block efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Tariffs on buyers of oil from Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter, would disrupt global supply and hurt Moscow’s biggest customers, China and India.

Trump threatened Iran with similar tariffs and also with bombings if Tehran did not reach an agreement with the White House over its nuclear program.

Prices found some support after Russia ordered Kazakhstan’s main oil export terminal to close two of its three moorings amid a standoff between Kazakhstan and OPEC+ – the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, plus allies led by Russia – over excess production.

Kazakhstan will have to start cutting oil output as a result, two industry sources told Reuters. Another source said repair work at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal will take more than a month.

The market will watch an April 5 OPEC+ ministerial committee meeting to review policy. Sources told Reuters OPEC+ was on track to proceed with a production hike of 135,000 barrels per day in May. OPEC+ had agreed to a similar hike in production for April.

Meanwhile, five analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated on average that US crude inventories fell by about 2.1 million barrels in the week to March 28.

(Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar in London, Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Editing by Jan Harvey, David Gregorio, and Leslie Adler)

S&P, Nasdaq end higher as Wall Street gyrates in Trump-tariffs limbo

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both closed higher on Tuesday, after a topsy-turvy day on Wall Street dominated by investor angst ahead of the impending tariff announcements from the Trump administration.

Financial markets have been volatile in recent weeks as investors assessed the economic fallout of US President Donald Trump’s extensive tariff plans, which have sparked worries about a US economic slowdown and higher inflation.

Some of the uncertainty that has gripped markets is expected to dissipate after Trump unveils his tariff plan on Wednesday during an event in the Rose Garden, currently scheduled for 4 p.m. EDT.

However, while clarity on the specific tariff measures will be welcomed by investors, the overall backdrop is set to remain highly uncertain, making it difficult for markets to agree on directionality.

“The fact of the matter is sentiment is washed out and positioning is still fairly light,” said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.

“I don’t think we’re going to get the type of clarity that investors and business leaders want,” he added. “And at the end of the day, we spend a lot of time talking about tariffs, but the bigger story is we are dealing with an economy that is not firing on all cylinders.”

For now, according to Melson, this means investors are “sitting on their hands, biding their time.”

This attitude was reflected in the three Wall Street benchmarks on Tuesday, which swung between positive and negative territory throughout much of the day, before finishing the afternoon with some decent momentum.

The S&P 500 gained 21.22 points, or 0.38%, to 5,633.07 points, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 150.60 points, or 0.87%, to 17,449.89. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 11.80 points, or 0.03%, to 41,989.96.

Gains on the Nasdaq and S&P 500 were fueled by rebounds in technology stocks, which have been among the most punished in the opening weeks of the year.

Big-tech advances were led by Tesla, which climbed 3.6% ahead of its first-quarter vehicle deliveries report on Wednesday. There were also gains for other Magnificent Seven stocks, including Amazon.com, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms, which rose between 1% and 1.8%.

The S&P, however, was also weighed down by falls in healthcare and airlines.

Johnson & Johnson was the worst performer on the S&P 500, falling 7.6% and dragging the broader healthcare sector down 1.8% to the bottom of the 11 S&P sectors. A US bankruptcy judge rejected the company’s USD 10 billion proposal to end tens of thousands of lawsuits alleging that its baby powder and other talc products cause ovarian cancer.

Meanwhile, Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, and Southwest Airlines all dropped between 2.4% and 5.9%, as Jefferies analysts downgraded stocks amid concerns that economic uncertainty could disrupt both business and retail travel demand.

Among single stocks, there were big gains posted by some of the newest public companies.

Conservative news outlet Newsmax soared for the second straight day, jumping 208%, following a more than 700% surge in its NYSE debut on Monday.

CoreWeave, which has had a more rocky start since debuting as a public company on Friday, climbed 41.8% to trade back above the IPO price of the artificial-intelligence startup.

Volume on US exchanges was 15.09 billion shares, compared with the 15.83 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Reporting by Sruthi Shankar and Pranav Kashyap in Bengaluru and David French in New York
Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri and Matthew Lewis)

Dollar’s record low FX reserves share not all bad news for Trump: McGeever

ORLANDO, Florida – In January, US President Donald Trump warned the so-called BRICS nations against replacing, or backing any currency to take the place of, the “mighty US dollar.”

While the International Monetary Fund’s latest foreign exchange reserves data for the fourth quarter of last year suggests central banks around the world continue to pull away from the greenback, there may be a silver lining for the president.

The IMF’s Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (Cofer) data, the gold standard for FX reserves information, show that countries have been gradually chipping away at their dollar holdings and diversifying for years.

Indeed, the greenback’s nominal share of official FX reserve holdings in the third quarter of last year fell to a record low 57.3% from over 72.0% in 2001.

That crept up slightly to 57.8% in the fourth quarter, a rare rise, but the dollar surged 7.6% against a basket of major currencies in the period, its biggest quarterly appreciation in nearly a decade. All else equal, this reduces the dollar-value of reserves held in non-dollar currencies such as the euro, sterling, or Japanese yen.

When adjusting for these FX changes, the dollar’s share of reserves slid to a record low of 54.1% from 55.3%, according to Goldman Sachs. At the start of the millennium, that share was over 71%.

Importantly, the Cofer figures only go up to December 31, so do not take into account any reserve shifts made amid the historically high policy uncertainty and market ructions of recent months.

With military, diplomatic and trade ties going back decades now fraying at an alarming rate, reserve managers are bound to be rethinking their FX allocations. And that is unlikely to involve a sudden rediscovered love for the dollar.

STILL NUMBER ONE

Reserve managers do not typically make knee-jerk reactions to market gyrations or the headlines du jour. They’re a cautious breed, prioritizing liquidity, stability, and long-termism over yield, opportunity, and a fast buck.

But further diversification of their FX reserves can hardly be considered an impulsive reaction, as the trend is pretty well entrenched. The emergence of any new world order in the coming years would likely only strengthen it.

No matter how you slice it, the dollar’s overwhelming dominance in global FX reserves is weakening. But that doesn’t mean the greenback’s place as the world’s preeminent reserve currency is under threat.

Its share is not being eaten up by its nearest rival, the euro, but by a bunch of smaller, “nontraditional” reserve currencies such as the Korean won, Australian and Canadian dollars, and China’s renminbi.

“It’s not just diversification out of the dollar. Euro reserve holdings have fallen in nominal and valuation-adjusted terms as well,” notes Goldman’s Michael Cahill.

This is a trend that has been underway for years, taking hold just after the Global Financial Crisis and accelerating again after the pandemic.

The Cofer data shows the aggregate share of “nontraditional” currencies in central banks’ FX reserves was 12.6% in December, just off September’s record high of 12.7%. Before 2009, that share had never exceeded 3%.

The euro’s share since its launch more than 25 years ago has never fallen below 19%, and only once, in late 2020, has it exceeded 21%. Any reduction in the difference between the dollar and euro shares has been caused by reserve managers shunning the greenback rather than taking a shine to the euro.

Their preference to build up holdings of several smaller currencies has created a somewhat curious equilibrium. The dollar is seeing its dominance gradually diminish, but it’s in little danger of losing its role as the world’s sole reserve currency.

Trump, who seems to want the dollar to remain dominant while no longer sucking in so much of the world’s savings, may be happy with that.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

(By Jamie McGeever)

Gold prices soar to all-time high over trade war concerns

Gold prices surged to a record high on Friday, as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset amid fears of a global trade war triggered by US President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs.

Spot gold climbed 0.6% to USD 3,074.43 an ounce as of 02:41 p.m. EDT (1839 GMT) after hitting its eighteenth record high this year at USD 3,086.70 earlier in the session. Bullion is up 1.7% this week and is on track for a fourth straight weekly gain.

US gold futures settled 0.8% higher at USD 3,114.30.

“It continues to be the safe-haven demand on ramped-up concerns about tariffs, trade and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty as well,” that is supporting gold, said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against economic and political instability, tends to thrive in a low-interest rate environment.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.4% in February, compared with analysts’ expectation of 0.3% rise, similar to January’s increase.

The data isn’t likely to change rate cut expectations very much, as it is only a little hotter than expected, Grant added.

The Fed has held interest rates steady so far this year after three rate cuts in 2024, but hinted at a potential half-percentage point in rate cuts later in the year.

The market is currently pricing 63 bps of Fed rate cuts by the year-end, starting in July.

Markets are now bracing for Trump’s plans for reciprocal tariffs, which he intends to lay out on April 2.

Trump’s policies are perceived as inflationary, posing a risk to economic growth and escalating trade tensions, analysts say.

Spot silver fell 1.4% to USD 33.93 an ounce, platinum eased 0.7% to USD 979.10, and palladium was down 0.3% to USD 972.13. All three were set for weekly gains.

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)

Wobbly US stocks face test with tariffs, jobs data

NEW YORK – A rocky US stock market will be tested this week by a pivotal deadline for President Donald Trump’s tariff plans and an employment report that could reveal a slowing economy.

The S&P 500 posted a weekly loss, selling off on Friday after data pointed to underlying price pressures. Earlier this month, the benchmark index marked a correction, dropping more than 10% from its record high.

The index is down 9.17% from its February 19 high as uncertainty over the health of the US economy and trade policy has kept investors on edge.

Investors remain worried about signs that Trump’s trade war could reignite inflation.

“April is going to have a lot of moving parts and probably a lot of volatility following a really difficult March,” said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment Management Corp. “There’s a lot of information that could move markets in a variety of different directions.”

Investors have been hoping the coming days will clarify the tariff landscape. Trump has pointed to April 2 for a broad batch of tariffs to be announced, including “reciprocal” levies on countries, calling it a “Liberation Day” for the US economy.

The tariff situation has led Wall Street analysts to pull back on economic and corporate earnings forecasts, while uncertainty over how trade policy will play out is weighing on businesses and consumers.

A survey this week showed US consumer confidence plunged in March to its lowest in more than four years, with households fearing a recession and higher inflation because of tariffs.

“Everybody wants clarity because however it plays out, it gives the roadmap and we’re going to adapt, adjust,” said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager for Brandywine Global. “It’s this cloud of uncertainty that’s creating some angst.”

On Wednesday, Trump announced a 25% tariff on auto imports, a measure that could add thousands of dollars to the average cost of a vehicle in the US Shares in carmakers such as General Motors and Ford tumbled on Thursday.

Data from options analytics service ORATS show the equity options market pricing higher volatility for near-term S&P 500 option expirations, including contracts expiring on March 31 and April 4, compared to those further out.

“Traders are paying a premium for near-term protection,” Matt Amberson, principal at ORATS, said.

After annual gains of over 20% for years, the S&P 500 is logging a 5.12% decline so far in 2025 as the end of the first quarter nears. The index has lost its gains since Trump’s November election, which had stoked excitement on Wall Street about the president’s expected pro-growth agenda that has been deflated by worries over tariffs.

The forward price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 has moderated to less than 21 times as of Wednesday, compared to about 22 to start the year, but remains well above its long-term average of 15.8, according to LSEG Datastream.

“We came into the year with an expensive market coupled with high expectations. And now we’re getting uncertainty,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital. “Those … don’t work very well together.”

Tariff worries have compounded concerns about the US economic outlook. Investors will focus on the monthly US jobs report due on April 4.

Employment growth is expected to have slowed in March to 128,000 from 151,000 in February, according to a Reuters poll.

One focus on Wall Street is how much light the jobs data will shed on an effort led by Trump ally Elon Musk to reduce the federal government workforce.

The end of the first quarter on Monday could bring asset price fluctuations, as portfolio managers make last-minute adjustments. Investors also will begin eyeing the start of first-quarter earnings season, with reports arriving in earnest later in the month.

“We’re generally in a risk off environment. That’s been the tone since we’ve entered this correction phase,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management. “So it remains to be seen whether we’ve seen the bottom.”

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf and Carolina Mandl and additional reporting by Saqib Ahmed, in New York; Editing by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, David Gregorio, and Richard Chang)

Oil slips on recession fears but posts 3rd weekly gain

NEW YORK – Oil prices fell on Friday on worries that US tariff wars could spark a global recession, but gained for a third consecutive week after Washington ratcheted up pressure on OPEC members Venezuela and Iran.

Brent crude futures fell 40 cents, or 0.5% to settle at USD 73.63 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) fell 56 cents, or 0.8%, to close at USD 69.36 a barrel.

US President Donald Trump plans to announce reciprocal tariffs targeting a wide range of imports, effective on April 2.

The trade war has investors worried about a potential recession, JPMorgan analysts told clients.

“Concerns about a trade war, coupled with elevated US policy uncertainty, are weighing heavily on sentiment,” they said.

Although the risk was elevated, high-frequency oil demand indicators have held up relatively well for now, JPMorgan noted.

Mid-week data from the Energy Information Administration showed US crude inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels to 433.6 million barrels last week, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 956,000-barrel draw.

On a weekly basis, Brent futures gained 1.9%, while WTI rose 1.6%. Since hitting multi-month lows in early March, Brent is up more than 7%, and WTI has rebounded over 6%.

“The key theme this week was the Trump administration ratcheting up the pressure on the Maduro regime in Venezuela,” Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said.

Trump on Monday announced new 25% tariffs on potential buyers of Venezuelan crude, days after US sanctions targeting China’s imports from Iran.

The measures could exacerbate an anticipated 200,000 barrel-per-day decline in Venezuelan crude oil output this year, Singh said.

It has compounded uncertainty for buyers and saw the trade of Venezuelan oil to top buyer China stall. Elsewhere, sources said India’s Reliance Industries, operator of the world’s biggest refining complex, will halt Venezuelan oil imports.

Oil markets are readjusting global supply expectations as a result of US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran, with Trump having promised to drive the latter’s oil exports to zero. The US has issued four rounds of sanctions targeting Iran’s oil sales since Trump’s return to the White House.

The second quarter should be tighter than originally thought, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said. “If there are reductions in Venezuelan or Iranian crude oil barrels on the market, this would certainly be a bullish development.”

The OPEC+ group is set to begin its program of monthly increases in oil production in April. The group, which comprises OPEC and allies led by Russia, will likely continue to raise oil output in May, Reuters reported on Monday.

(Reporting by Shariq Khan in New York, Paul Carsten in London, and Siyi Liu in Singapore; Editing by Marguerita Choy and David Gregorio)

Deal slump hits US high-grade bond supply, pressures spreads

NEW YORK – The pipeline for US high-grade corporate bond issuance to fund mergers has fallen to the lowest levels in five years as President Donald Trump’s trade war deters deals, in what could be a boon for borrowers but a challenge for banks and investors.

Wall Street had expected the Trump administration’s policies such as deregulation and tax cuts to fuel a resurgence in deal activity and add USD 250 billion to USD 300 billion of investment-grade bonds to fund it this year, up from USD 179 billion in 2024, according to interviews with six debt capital markets bankers.

Instead, economic uncertainty due to Trump’s policies, especially the threat of tariffs on US imports, has thrown markets into turmoil, and prompted executives to hit “pause” on deals while they await clarity. US M&A volume in the first quarter fell 3%, Dealogic data shows.

Meghan Graper, global head of debt capital markets at Barclays, said only USD 8 billion of acquisition financing is currently in the pipeline for the market, compared with roughly USD 100 billion at the same point last year, the lowest since June 2020.

Overall, investment-grade bond issuance volumes were expected to average USD 1.65 trillion in 2025, some USD 150 billion more than a year earlier, according to Informa Global Markets.

Daniel Botoff, RBC Capital Markets global head of debt capital markets, said he had expected some 20% of issuance volumes this year to comprise M&A financing. “But that expectation is looking optimistic,” he said.

Some bankers and analysts said the lower issuance to finance deals could put tightening pressure on credit spreads, the premium over Treasuries that issuers pay to investors.

If the M&A slump continues, experts said it could also hit banks’ bottom lines, potentially leading to job losses in the industry.

Daniel Krieter, a strategist at BMO Capital, said he now expects overall investment-grade volumes for the year to end up closer to USD 1.5 trillion, the same as in 2024, the second-busiest year ever for issuance.

But that volume of issuance may not be enough to satisfy investors who are expected to be flush with cash.

Investors will get back nearly USD 1 trillion this year – which is unusually high – in interest payments and as bonds mature. Most of that amount is expected to be reinvested, according to a JP Morgan research note and analyst estimates.

This will be on top of the already-persistent investor demand to lock in the high yields on the highest-rated bonds before expected cuts in US interest rates this year.

Credit spreads have tightened nearly 6 basis points since touching their widest levels for the year in March when markets turned volatile, according to ICE BAML data. But at 91 basis points, they are only 14 basis points away from their lowest levels in over a decade.

Without a burst of bond issuance to fund M&A activity, spreads may remain at these tight levels or narrow further even if the economy slows and risk in these bonds increases.

“Growth is almost certain to slow as a result of Trump’s trade and tariff policies, but a recession appears unlikely in the medium term,” said Edward Marrinan, macro credit strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

“We do not expect credit spreads to move materially wider from current levels — unless our view on recession changes,” said Marrinan.

The comedown in expectations of issuance has been dramatic. At one point in the first quarter it looked like they were on the right track with some big deals announced.

In March, for example, nearly USD 49 billion was raised by investment-grade companies to fund acquisitions, including a USD 26 billion eight-part bond offering by candy giant Mars to finance its USD 36 billion takeover of Pringles maker Kellanova – the largest M&A financing in two years – and a USD 10 billion six-part bond offering by design-software maker Synopsys to support its USD 35 billion purchase of Ansys.

But Barclays’ Graper said that the trend has not held up, and the pipeline has dried.

Volatility is “putting a dampener on dealmaking activity with buyers reluctant to pay what sellers want in an uncertain macro environment,” said Sandeep Desai, co-head of leveraged debt markets for North America at Deutsche Bank.

With a lag between announcement and financing, the absence of an outsized pipeline already in place does not bode well for the year.

“New M&A that will need financing this year would have to be struck in the next few months,” said Victor Forte, head of investment-grade capital markets and syndicate at Mizuho. “But that progression has been delayed because of the macroeconomic uncertainty.”

(Reporting by Shankar Ramakrishnan and Anirban Sen in New York; Editing by Paritosh Bansal and Matthew Lewis)

Oil approaches one-month highs as investors assess supply, trade war risks

NEW YORK – Oil prices edged higher on Thursday as traders assessed a tightening of crude supplies along with new US tariffs and their expected effect on the world’s economy.

Brent crude futures gained 24 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at USD 74.03 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 27 cents to USD 69.92.

On Wednesday, oil prices rose about 1% to their highest since February.

Market participants were weighing escalating trade war risks. US President Donald Trump unveiled his plan on Wednesday to implement 25% tariffs on imported cars and light trucks effective next week, while those on auto parts begin on May 3.

“The biggest headwind for oil right now are the concerns about tariffs, and tariffs might slow demand,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group.

Trump on Tuesday imposed new 25% tariffs on potential buyers of Venezuelan crude.

India’s Reliance Industries, operator of the world’s biggest refining complex, will halt Venezuelan oil imports following the tariff announcement, sources said on Wednesday.

Asian bank DBS does not expect prices to return to the higher levels seen in early 2025 as uncertainty over US policy and the prospect of tariff wars weigh on demand, the bank’s energy sector team lead Suvro Sarkar said.

Data on US crude inventories on Wednesday showed tighter US supplies, as stockpiles fell by 3.3 million barrels last week versus expectations for a 956,000-barrel draw.

Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits slipped last week.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly in New York and Enes Tunagur in London; Editing by Gareth Jones, Ros Russell, Rod Nickel, Diane Craft, and Kevin Liffey)

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