Yields fall to three-week low as economic data weakens

Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields fell for the sixth consecutive day to a three-week low on Tuesday after data showed that US job openings dropped sharply in March while consumer confidence hit an almost five-year low.

Job openings, a measure of labor demand, decreased 288,000 to 7.192 million by the last day of March, though a decline in layoffs suggested that the labor market remained on solid footing.

US consumer confidence slumped in April as growing concerns over tariffs weighed on the economic outlook.

“The data just generally is getting weaker,” said Tom di Galoma, managing director at Mischler Financial Group. “That’s one of the main reasons why the markets are pointing towards lower rates.”

Investors are focused on data this week for guidance on the health of the economy, with weaker readings likely boosting bets that the Federal Reserve is closer to cutting rates.

Friday’s jobs report for April is expected to show that employers added 130,000 jobs during the month. The advance estimate of gross domestic product for the first quarter due on Wednesday is also expected to show a sharp slowdown to 0.3%, from 2.4% in the fourth quarter.

The US trade deficit in goods widened to a record high in March as businesses ramped up efforts to bring in merchandise ahead of Trump’s tariffs, suggesting trade was a large drag on economic growth in the first quarter.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 65% odds of an interest rate cut by June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Fed officials are in a blackout period ahead of the May 6-7 meeting, when traders see only an 8% chance of a rate cut.

Falling commodity prices, including oil, may also make it more likely that the US central bank is closer to cutting rates.

“Oil is dropping and commodities just generally seem to be dropping, and I think that that’s a favorable outlook for inflation,” di Galoma said.

The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes was last down 3.5 basis points at 4.181%, the lowest since April 8.

The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 2.1 basis points to 3.664% and reached 3.648%, the lowest since April 7.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes was last at 51.5 basis points.

Market participants remain nervous about the impact of tariffs, though the market has stabilized from a sharp selloff earlier this month after US President Donald Trump announced larger than expected levies on trading partners.

Most of these increases have been delayed until July 9, and investors are hopeful that the US will reach trade deals before the pause period lapses.

Trump will sign an order on Tuesday giving automakers building vehicles in the US relief from part of his new 25% vehicle tariffs to allow them time to bring parts supply chains back home, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said.

Lutnick also said that Trump’s administration has reached one trade deal already and is waiting for approvals from that country before announcing it.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that China could lose 10 million jobs quickly due to tariffs and that Beijing will see over time that Chinese tariffs are not sustainable.

The Treasury is expected to keep auction sizes steady when it announces its refunding plans for the coming quarter on Wednesday. Traders will focus on any guidance about future auction size increases.

(Reporting By Karen Brettell; Editing by Tomasz Janowski and Will Dunham)

US yields slip further ahead of heavy data slate

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields eased to near three-week lows on Monday, marking the half-way unwind from this month’s bond rout as a dearth of new tariff news allowed investors to zero in on impending economic data, crowned by Friday’s payrolls report.

Trading was more muted than in recent weeks of high volatility, when US President Donald Trump sent Treasuries tumbling and benchmark yields up about 70 basis points amid fear that his erratic announcements on import levies made dollar-based assets less secure, and US and global economic growth less assured.

With month-end on Wednesday, along with the first read on first quarter gross domestic product and the personal consumption expenditures price index, traders look loath to take any unnecessary risk. Other labor market data is also sprinkled through the week, in the run-up to Friday’s all-important April employment release.

“Generally, the data isn’t likely to show a full-blown collapse, but it will continue to keep investors nervous that growth is slowing,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities, New York.

The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note fell to its lowest since April 8, and in late trade was off 3.9 basis points from Friday afternoon at 4.227%.

There have been not-entirely-convincing signs that the US and China could be willing to de-escalate trade tensions.

Competing claims on the state of negotiations from Beijing and Trump highlighted the uncertainties facing investors seeking to navigate Trump’s upending of world trade.

HIGH RISK OF RECESSION

The week also marks 100 days since Trump took office and began his assault on trade, and confidence in America. Despite an initial rally in equities after his election in November, the S&P 500 has declined about 5% since then, and fallen more than 10% from February’s record high as markets assess the potential impact of tariffs.

Bonds had a wild ride, too, as investors reconsidered US market supremacy. The 10-year yield rose from a low of 3.86% on April 4, two days after Trump’s ill-received “Liberation Day” tariff unveiling, to 4.592% a week later. It has now fallen 36 of those 73 bps.

A majority of economists polled by Reuters said the risk of the global economy slipping into recession this year was high. But Trump’s tariff rollercoaster has made the Federal Reserve’s job even harder, given prospects for inflation to rise away from its 2% target even if growth slows.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets next week, with futures traders betting that it will, starting in June, lower rates by 25 basis points at least four times this year from the current range of 4.25%-4.50%, where the policy rate has stood since December.

While the auction calendar is light this week, the US Treasury released its borrowing estimates for April through June and July through September late on Monday, in advance of announcing its refunding plans across maturities on Wednesday morning.

The Treasury expects to borrow USD514 billion in the second quarter, USD391 billion higher than its February estimate.

The yield on the 30-year bond eased 3.5 bp to 4.703%.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 52.7 basis points about 4.5 bp steeper than Friday.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 6.3 bp to 3.699%, plumbing its lowest since April 9.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.324% after closing at 2.331% on April 25.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.25%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.3% a year for the next decade, higher than the Fed’s target.

(Editing by Kevin Liffey and Nick Zieminski)

Brent crude oil prices drop on demand fears

HOUSTON – Brent crude oil prices fell more than USD 1 a barrel on Monday morning as economic worries from the US-China trade war were pressuring demand.

Brent crude futures settled at USD 65.86 a barrel, down USD 1.01, or 1.51%. US West Texas Intermediate crude finished at USD 62.05 a barrel, down 97 cents or 1.545%.

Brent futures rose marginally in the previous two sessions, but finished last Friday with a weekly loss of more than 1%.

The US-China trade war is dominating investor sentiment in moving oil prices, said analyst John Evans of brokerage PVM, superseding nuclear talks between the US and Iran and discord within the OPEC+ coalition.

“This wait-and-see attitude coming out of the US-China talks is leaving a bad taste in peoples’ mouths,” said Gary Cunningham, director of market research for Tradition Energy. “If the talks go bad, you could see a drop in demand for oil from China.”

Markets have been rocked by conflicting signals from US President Donald Trump and Beijing over what progress was being made to de-escalate a trade war that could sap global growth.

In the latest comment from Washington, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday did not back Trump’s assertion that negotiations with China were underway. Earlier, Beijing denied any talks were taking place.

“A lot of the feeling in the market is how is it going to be playing out in the next 24 to 48 hours?” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. “Are we going to be bombing Iran? Is China going to be buying more crude?”

Some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, are expected to suggest that the group accelerate oil output hikes for a second consecutive month when they meet on May 5.

“Sentiment has turned more bearish since our forecast last month with OPEC+’s more aggressive unwind – and accompanying doubts about unity within the cartel – the key change,” said BNP Paribas analyst Aldo Spanjer in a note.

BNP Paribas expects Brent in the high USD 60s per barrel in the second quarter of this year, the note said.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said he remained “extremely cautious” about the success of the negotiations, as nuclear talks between Iran and the United States in Oman continue this week.

In Iran, a powerful explosion at its biggest port of Bandar Abbas has killed at least 40, with more than 1,200 people injured, state media reported on Sunday.

(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston; Robert Harvey in London; Mohi Narayan in New Delhi and Florence Tan in Singapore. Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips, David Evans, Mark Potter, and David Gregorio)

Gold rebounds as bargain-hunting kicks in

Gold prices reversed course to edge higher on Monday as bargain-hunting kicked in, while market focus was on US-China tradedevelopments and a slew of economic data.

Spot gold was up 0.5% at USD 3,335.30 an ounce as of 2:06 p.m. ET (1806 GMT) after falling as much as 1.8% earlier in the session. US gold futures settled 1.5% higher at USD 3,347.7.

“We’re starting to see the first signs of selling exhaustion,” TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali said, adding that the downside risk in gold is extremely limited.

“Western investors, particularly discretionary traders or macro funds, have been completely under-positioned in this last leg of gold’s rally, and as a result of that, there’s limited amount of selling activity and gold prices are drifting higher to reflect that.”

Bullion, a traditional hedge against political and financial instability, rose to an all-time high of USD 3,500.05/oz last week due to elevated uncertainties.

US President Donald Trump says progress has been made with China. However, Beijing has denied that trade talks are occurring, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent failed on Sunday to back Trump’s assertion that tariff talks with China were underway.

“Until we witness clear patterns of lower highs, lower lows, and firm trade agreements rather than more political bluster from the Trump administration, the prospect of fresh highs for gold cannot be dismissed,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com

The risk is high that the global economy will slip into recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll.

Data due this week includes the US job openings report on Tuesday, Personal Consumption Expenditures on Wednesday, and the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Market participants will scan these to gauge the impact of the latest tariffs on the US economy.

Spot silver eased 0.1% to USD 33.03 per ounce, platinum gained 1.5% to USD 986.05 and palladium fell 0.4% USD 947.27.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil, Ishaan Arora, and Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Barbara Lewis, Matthew Lewis, and Shailesh Kuber)

Gold dips 2% as US-China trade tensions ease, dollar rises

Gold prices fell 2% on Friday and were on track for a weekly dip as the dollar rose and signs of easing US-China trade tensions after a report that Beijing had exempted some US goods from its tariffs weighed on bullion.

Spot gold was down 1.7% at USD 3,292.99 an ounce as of 1:39 a.m. EDT (1739 GMT), after it fell as much as 2% earlier in the session. Bullion is down 1.2% for the week.

US gold futures settled 1.5% lower at USD 3,298.40.

“The apparent detente on tariffs is negatively affecting gold prices … But so far we’ve not seen substantial liquidations,” said TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali.

“However, we know that they’ve continued to buy the dip over the last few sessions, so we think gold can resume its upward trajectory.”

China is considering exempting some US imports from its 125% tariffs and is asking businesses to identify goods that could be eligible, according to the businesses notified.

Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump suggested a de-escalation of the tit-for-tat tariff battle, saying direct talks were already underway.

The US dollar, meanwhile, rose and was on track for its first weekly gain since March, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers.

Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties, scaled a record high of USD 3,500.05 per ounce and has gained more than 25% so far this year, owing to US-China trade tensions and strong central bank demand.

“Trade war concerns were the main reason behind all the prior gold buying. But it could still be a while before we see actual progress, and so those concerns are not completely gone just yet,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com.

Elsewhere, spot silver slipped 1.6% to USD 33.03 an ounce, but was heading for its third consecutive week of gains.

Platinum fell 0.5% to USD 965.53 and palladium dipped 1.8% to USD 936.89.

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel, Ishaan Arora, and Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; Editing by Nick Zieminski, Pooja Desai, and Alan Barona)

Oil posts weekly fall on tariff worry and rising supplies

NEW YORK – Oil prices edged higher on Friday but posted a weekly decline, under pressure from market expectations of oversupply and uncertainty around tariff talks between the US and China.

Brent crude futures settled 32 cents higher at USD 66.87 a barrel, taking losses to 1.6% over the week. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 23 cents to USD 63.02 a barrel, marking a weekly decline of 2.6%.

China exempted some US imports from its steep tariffs in a sign on Friday that the trade war between the world’s top two economies could be easing, though Beijing quickly knocked down US President Donald Trump’s assertion that negotiations were underway.

“Traders now view further (crude price) gains as unlikely in the short term due to the continued trade war among top global consumers and speculation that OPEC+ may accelerate production hikes from June,” Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said.

Oil prices fell earlier this month to four-year lows after tariffs sparked investor concern about global demand and a selloff in financial markets.

While the risk is that a weaker economy will erode demand, supplies could swell.

Several OPEC+ members have suggested the group accelerate oil output increases for a second month in June, Reuters reported earlier this week.

An end to the war in Ukraine also has the potential to add to supplies if it allows more Russian oil to reach global markets.

A three-hour meeting on Friday between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump envoy Steve Witkoff was constructive and narrowed differences when it came to ending the war in Ukraine, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said.

In an indication of future supply, the number of oil-directed drilling rigs rose by 2 to 483 in the week to April 25, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes showed on Friday.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly in New York; Additional reporting by Enes Tunagur in London and Siyi Liu in Singapore; Editing by David Gregorio, Daniel Wallis, and Nia Williams)

Japan’s Nikkei ends higher on Trump’s easing tariff tone, weaker yen

TOKYO – Japan’s Nikkei share average ended higher on Friday as investors scooped up technology stocks after the White House softened its trade stance against China and the yen weakened following talks between Japan-US finance chiefs.

The Nikkei rose for a third straight session, closing 1.9% higher at 37,705,74. The index has almost fully recouped its losses since US President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariff announcements. For the week, it rose 0.89%.

The broader Topix rose 1.37% to 2,628.03 and posted a 1.3% weekly gain.

“With Trump easing his tone about his tariff plans, investors have started looking into other factors, such as corporate earnings and outlook of the chip industry,” Yusuke Sakai, a senior trader at T&D Asset Management.

This week, the Trump administration shifted its tone against China and said the situation was unsustainable. China, meanwhile, is considering exempting some US imports from its 125% tariffs in the biggest sign yet of Beijing’s concerns about the economic fallout.

Investors’ worries about the yen’s further gains have eased after the talks between the finance chiefs of Japan and the US, said Sakai.

Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Thursday he agreed with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to continue “constructive” dialogue on currency policy, but did not discuss setting currency targets or a framework to control yen moves.

The yen was last down 0.65% at 143.56 against the dollar, after hitting a seven-month high of 139.885 this week.

Among individual stocks, electric motor maker Nidec surged 12.48%. It became the biggest percentage gainer in the Nikkei after it reported a larger-than-expected quarterly profit and forecast a record annual operating profit.

Fujitsu jumped 4.8% after the computer maker said its annual net profit for the year to March 2026 will be up 77% from the previous year.

Chip-related stocks Tokyo Electron and Advantest rose 4.24% and 4.64%, respectively, providing the biggest boost to the Nikkei.

Truck maker Hino Motors fell 5% and was the worst performer on the index.

(Reporting by Junko Fujita; Editing by Varun H K and Janane Venkatraman)

Big tech earnings, US jobs data highlight busy week for markets

NEW YORK – A packed upcoming week for markets will test a US stocks rebound, with investors focused on a wave of corporate results led by Apple and Microsoft, while the prospect of global trade developments threatens to cause volatility at any time.

The monthly US employment report, data on first-quarter US economic growth, and an inflation update add to the potential market-sensitive events in the coming week, as investors weigh whether the recent strength suggests the worst of a tariff-induced equities tumble is over.

With the S&P 500 on pace for a solid week of gains, the US benchmark index has pared its recent slide by about half but remains down some 10% from its February record high.

Sentiment for equities has been lifted this week by signals of easing in the Trump administration’s trade stance, including possible de-escalation with China. But the situation remains fluid and fresh developments on tariffs could undermine the market gains.

“There seems to be some potential for compromise on the tariff situation,” which has supported the recent rally, said Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners.

But stocks will remain sensitive to “the news flow that day,” Mullaney said. “If it’s positive on tariffs, the market goes up. If it’s negative on tariffs, the market goes down.”

Investors are bracing for more twists and turns on trade after President Donald Trump this month paused many of the heftiest import tariffs on other countries until July. Trump’s pullback came after his April 2 announcement of sweeping levies set off severe stock volatility and rattled the bond market.

Tariff uncertainty will be a critical topic for upcoming corporate reports.

About 180 S&P 500 companies representing over 40% of the index’s market value are set to post quarterly results in the coming week, according to UBS. Chief among them are Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, four of the “Magnificent Seven” megacap tech and growth companies whose shares have faltered in 2025 after putting up massive gains the prior two years.

With over one-third of S&P 500 companies having reported, profits are on pace to beat expectations for the period. S&P 500 earnings are on pace to have climbed 9.7% in the first quarter from a year ago, up from an estimate of an 8% gain on April 1, according to LSEG IBES.

“People were expecting the worst, and that typically happens when markets retrench,” said King Lip, chief strategist at BakerAvenue Wealth Management in San Francisco. “But the numbers really haven’t been that bad.”

Still, some companies have pointed to challenges ahead. Consumer staples company Procter & Gamble, soda and snacks company PepsiCo, and medical equipment maker Thermo Fisher all cut their annual profit forecasts.

Investors also will watch the extent to which the new global trade regime is hitting economic data, with broad concerns the new tariffs will drive up prices and slow growth.

Data in the coming week includes gross domestic product for the first quarter, and the March reading of the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key inflation reading.

The monthly US jobs report, due on May 2, could provide the biggest test for markets. The labor market has demonstrated stability in recent months, and employment is expected to have climbed by 135,000 jobs in April, according to a Reuters poll.

But doubts about the economic outlook are being fueled by dour readings in consumer sentiment and other surveys, with investors eager to see if such troubling “soft data” will translate into weakness in reports seen as giving more concrete evidence about the economy.

“If the consumer is going to be the engine of ongoing growth in the US, it puts the burden of proof onto the jobs report,” said Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY.

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Rod Nickel)

RPT-ANALYSIS-Yen, BOJ’s rate policy may remain focus in Japan-US trade talks

Repeats Friday story, no change to text

Japan’s finance minister tight-lipped on meeting with US Treasury’s Bessent

Kato says currency talks will be tied to trade negotiations

Analysts see remark as leaving scope for US pressure on yen

Kato said he explained Japan’s wage, inflation issues to Bessent

Remark suggests BOJ rate hikes remain in focus, analysts say

By Leika Kihara

WASHINGTON, April 25 (Reuters) – Japan may have averted U.S. pressure for a stronger yen in bilateral finance talks on Thursday, but a closer look at officials’ descriptions of the meeting suggests currencies and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate policy may remain key factors in broader trade negotiations.

Speaking to reporters after his first face-to-face talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said they did not discuss exchange-rate targets or a framework to manage yen rates.

There was no accusation made by the U.S. that Japan was intentionally weakening the yen, according to a Japanese finance ministry official who accompanied Kato.

But Kato was tight-lipped on the details of the 50-minute meeting with Bessent, which was held on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings in Washington.

When asked whether the U.S. made any specific requests to Japan, Kato said: “I can’t comment because that goes straight into actual discussions.”

Still, there were some hints.

For one, Kato said Japan and the U.S. will continue close and constructive dialogue on exchange rates “in relation to the ongoing bilateral trade negotiations” – language some analysts saw as a sign Washington could make demands on the yen as part of broader trade talks.

The meeting preceded top Japanese trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa’s scheduled visit to Washington next week for a second round of bilateral trade talks that may prove tortuous for the U.S.

President Donald Trump’s focus on addressing the U.S. trade deficit and his past remarks accusing Japan of intentionally maintaining a weak yen, have fueled market expectations that Tokyo will face pressure to strengthen the yen’s value against the dollar and give U.S. manufacturers a competitive advantage.

“President Trump strongly believes that Japan and China have been intentionally depreciating their currencies. There’s little sign of him changing that view, so markets remain cautious,” said Tsuyoshi Ueno, senior economist at NLI Research Institute.

“If next week’s trade negotiations between Akazawa and Bessent do not go well, Washington’s attention could turn towards exchange rates again,” he said.

The Treasury Department said in a readout on Friday that Bessent and Kato had held productive discussions across a broad range of bilateral issues, including reciprocal trade. They “affirmed their intention to continue their ongoing close consultations regarding issues related to exchange rates,” it said.

BOJ RATE HIKES

Another key sign was Kato’s remark that he explained to Bessent Japan’s recent economic developments “including wage hikes.” He added that in doing so, he also talked about Japan’s “price developments.”

That suggests discussions may have touched upon Japan’s monetary policy, as both wages and prices are key to the timing and pace of further interest rate hikes by the BOJ.

Sources have told Reuters the slow pace at which the BOJ is raising borrowing costs from ultra-low levels could come under fire in bilateral trade talks.

Steady rises in wages and inflation were key to the BOJ’s decision to exit a massive stimulus last year and raise its short-term interest rate to 0.5% in January.

With inflation exceeding its 2% target for three consecutive years and big firms continuing to offer bumper pay hikes this year, the BOJ has signaled its readiness to keep raising rates.

But the central bank’s rate-hike path has been complicated by Trump’s tariffs, which threaten to derail Japan’s fragile economic recovery and have prodded analysts to push back the expected timing of the next rate increase.

While warning of heightening economic uncertainty, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday repeated the central bank’s readiness to keep hiking rates.

“It’s notable that Kato and Bessent likely discussed Japan’s wage developments,” said Katsuhiro Oshima, chief economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, adding that Ueda’s remarks suggest the BOJ remains on course to hike rates.

“Wage hikes would be a win for Japan’s economy, a win for the U.S. from the perspective of exchange rates, a win for Japanese households which will see purchasing power increase, and a win for the BOJ by making it easier to raise rates.”

(Reporting by Leika Kihara;
Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao)

((leika.kihara@thomsonreuters.com; +813-6441-1828; Reuters Messaging: leika.kihara.reuters.com@reuters.net))

China tells G20 meeting world economic growth insufficient

BEIJING – China’s finance minister told a G20 meeting that the current world economic growth momentum was insufficient, with tariff and trade wars further impacting economic and financial stability, according to a ministry readout on Friday.

Lan Foan called on all parties to further improve the international economic and financial system by strengthening multilateral cooperation.

China advocates the settlement of trade and tariff disputes through dialogue and consultation on an equal footing, he said in his speech at the meeting in Washington.

Lan also urged for better implementation of the debt treatment mechanism under the Common Framework, and said all parties should pool more resources for Africa’s development and strengthen Africa’s capacity-building.

Lan held bilateral meetings and exchanges with several representatives, including from South Africa, the European Commission, Pakistan, Germany, South Korea, Indonesia, Britain, Japan and World Bank,

The meetings were mainly to discuss views on the macroeconomic situation, key issues of the G20 fiscal channels and bilateral cooperation, the readout said.

(Reporting by Liz Lee and Beijing newsroom; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Shri Navaratnam)

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