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THE GIST
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Global Philippines Fine Living
INSIGHTS
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
WEBINARS
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
DOWNLOADS
City skyline at sunset in Metro Manila
Economic Updates
Quarterly Economic Growth Release: Stronger case for a BSP cut in August
August 7, 2025 DOWNLOAD
economy-ss-3
Economic Updates
Inflation Update: BSP’s low-inflation safety net
August 5, 2025 DOWNLOAD
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Economic Updates
Monthly Economic Update: Two more BSP cuts 
July 31, 2025 DOWNLOAD
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Archives: Reuters Articles

Oil slumps about 5% as end to Libyan dispute in sight

Oil slumps about 5% as end to Libyan dispute in sight

Oil prices settled nearly 5% down on Tuesday at their lowest levels in nearly nine months on signs of a deal to resolve a dispute that has halted Libyan crude production and exports.

Brent crude futures closed down USD 3.77, or 4.9%, at USD 73.75 a barrel, their lowest level since Dec. 12. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI), which did not settle on Monday because of the US Labor Day holiday, fell USD 3.21, or 4.4%, to USD 70.34 – also their lowest since December.

Brent closed down 0.3% last week, while WTI settled 1.7% lower.

Libya’s legislative bodies have agreed to appoint a new central bank governor within 30 days after UN-sponsored talks, a statement signed by representatives of those bodies said on Tuesday.

Libyan oil exports at major ports were halted on Monday and production curtailed across the country, six engineers told Reuters, continuing a standoff between rival political factions over control of the central bank and oil revenue.

The speculation about a deal was triggering momentum selling, said Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank.

Libya’s National Oil Corp (NOC) declared force majeure on its El Feel oilfield from Sept. 2.

Total production had plunged to little more than 591,000 barrels per day (bpd) as of Aug. 28 from nearly 959,000 bpd on Aug. 26, NOC said. Production was at about 1.28 million bpd on July 20, the company said.

Ahead of the news of more Libyan supply possibly returning to the market, prices had fallen on the belief that demand was being undercut because of sluggish economic growth in China, the world’s biggest crude importer.

“The weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing PMI over the weekend likely exacerbated concerns about the Chinese economy’s performance,” said Charalampos Pissouros, senior investment analyst at brokerage XM.

China reported on Monday that new export orders fell for the first time in eight months in July and that prices of new homes rose in August at their weakest pace this year.

Hopes that the US driving season would propel prices to new 2024 highs this summer have also failed to materialize, said Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at Forex.

US gasoline futures RBc1 fell nearly 6% to their lowest since December 2021, as the end of the summer driving season weighed on demand for the motor fuel.

“The fact that recent data shows no signs of any acceleration in import demand in China, Europe or North America points to a situation where the oil market is not going to be as tight as expected a few months ago,” Razaqzada said.

Some supply is set to return to the market as eight members of OPEC and affiliates, together known as OPEC+, are scheduled to boost output by 180,000 bpd in October. The plan is likely to go ahead regardless of demand worries, industry sources said.

Disruptions to supply flows from the Middle East after two oil tankers were attacked on Monday in the Red Sea off Yemen were not enough to buoy prices. The tankers did not sustain major damage.

(Reporting by Arathy Somasekhar and Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru, Colleen Howe in Beijing and Emily Chow in Singapore; Additional reporting by Paul Carsten and Rob Harvey in London; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Paul Simao)

 

Dollar eases after hitting highest in two weeks, US job data looms

Dollar eases after hitting highest in two weeks, US job data looms

The dollar edged down on Monday but remained within striking distance of its highest level in almost two weeks as investors’ focus moved to a US jobs report due at the end of this week.

US payrolls, due on Friday, will be crucial after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell pivoted from a battle against inflation to a readiness to guard against job losses.

Analysts say the job figures will determine the magnitude of the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut. Markets have already priced in for weeks a cut of 25 basis points.

The greenback had earlier advanced to its strongest since Aug. 20, buoyed by a rise in long-term Treasury yields to the highest since mid-August as inflation data pointed to a smaller rate cut.

US gross domestic product figures also indicated the economy was on a solid enough footing to give the Federal Reserve room to be less aggressive in easing its policy.

Traders currently see a 33% chance of a 50-bps Fed rate cut this month, while fully pricing in a quarter-point cut. A week earlier, expectations were 36% for the larger reduction.

“These days, it is all about economic figures,” Athanasios Vamvakidis, global head of forex strategy at BofA, said.

“We expect the dollar to weaken in the second half of this year, but the market shouldn’t get too excited about it,” he added, flagging a euro target at USD 1.12.

“The US economy is slowing but is still doing much better than the rest of the world.”

The dollar index measure against six major peers weakened by 0.08% to 101.67, after hitting 101.79, a level not seen since Aug. 20.

It sank as low as 100.51 last week for the first time since July 2023 after Fed Chair Powell sent a strong message that the easing campaign would begin at the upcoming policy meeting.

The euro firmed 0.2% to USD 1.1060, after hitting USD 1.1043, its lowest since Aug. 19.

On the political front in Europe, Alternative for Germany (AfD) was on track to become the first far-right party to win a regional election in Germany since World War Two, projections showed, giving it unprecedented power even if other parties are sure to exclude it from office.

“The only clear lessons are that the far-right AfD continues to resist the temptation of power until they get an outright majority,” Christian Schulz, deputy chief European economist at Citi.

Some investors worried that a political stalemate in Berlin and Paris could prevent Europe from moving forward integration initiatives which could boost growth and make Europe able to play a bigger role in global affairs.

Money markets reduced their bets on rate cuts from the European Central Bank as August services inflation remained sticky and ECB policymakers provided no clues about additional monetary easing after a widely expected September rate cut.

They have priced in 59 bps worth of rate cuts by year-end implying two 25-bps moves and a 36% chance of a third cut – from 67 bps right after the release of German inflation data last week and from 70 bps in mid-August.

NON-FARM PAYROLLS

A US public holiday on Monday made for a slow start to the week for the dollar, analysts said, but the following days will see a steady flow of macroeconomic data that culminates with the non-farm payrolls on Friday.

Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the addition of 165,000 US jobs in August, up from an increase of 114,000 in the previous month.

Analysts said data at around consensus forecasts were consistent with a soft landing and the Fed easing its policy by 25 bps this month.

“With figures at or below 100,000, we will see risks of a hard landing and the market pricing in a higher chance of a 50 bps rate cut,” BofA’s Vamvakidis said.

The dollar rose 0.40% to 146.74 yen.

Analysts argued it would be hard to see the dollar rally against the yen at a time when the Fed is about to cut rates.

Treasury bonds won’t trade on Monday due to the US holiday, but the 10-year yield stood at 3.9110% following a 4.4-bp rise on Friday.

(Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo and Kevin Buckland; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Gareth Jones, Hugh Lawson, and Andrew Heavens)

 

Gold dips to one-week low as US jobs data awaited

Gold dips to one-week low as US jobs data awaited

Gold prices fell to their lowest in more than a week on Monday as the US dollar firmed, while market focus shifted to a series of economic data due this week for clues as to the extent of rate cuts at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.

Spot gold fell about 0.1% to USD 2,501.20 per ounce, as of 9:37 a.m. ET (1337 GMT) after dipping to its lowest since Aug. 23 earlier in the session.

Trading is expected to be light with US markets closed for a holiday.

“To move higher from here we need to have more clarity on whether it will be a 25 (bps) rate cut or a 50 (bps) rate cut and probably by the end of the week, with the employment data, we might get more clarity on that side,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

US economic data pending this week includes the ISM surveys, JOLTS job openings, ADP employment and the non-farm payrolls report.

The markets broadly expect the Fed to cut rates at its Sept. 17-18 meeting, the first in this policy cycle.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors now see a 69% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and a 31% chance of a 50 bp cut in September. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

“With earnings season now largely completed and a Fed rate cut on Sept. 18 all-but guaranteed, investors appear content to remain long despite some recent firming of both short rates and the US dollar,” Mike Ingram, market analyst at Kinesis Money, said in a note.

“High levels of geopolitical risk and portfolio diversification remain as additional supports.”

The dollar hovered near a two-week peak hit earlier in the session, making bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Spot silver fell 1.2% to USD 28.51 per ounce, and hit its lowest in over two weeks.

Platinum rose 0.2% at USD 927.55 and palladium rose 0.8% at USD 973.25.

(Reporting by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; Editing by Kevin Liffey, Mrigank Dhaniwala, and Sharon Singleton)

Tech market values fall on AI costs and recession fears; Eli Lilly, Berkshire gain

Tech market values fall on AI costs and recession fears; Eli Lilly, Berkshire gain

Market values of major tech firms declined in August amid concerns over escalating artificial intelligence infrastructure costs and rising recession risks that would make the stocks particularly vulnerable during a market correction.

Last month, Alphabet Inc. lost 4.7% of its market value as a slowdown in YouTube’s advertising sales fuelled concerns about its earnings. A US judge’s ruling that Google had violated antitrust laws and the emergence of new competition from OpenAI, which is developing an AI-based search engine prototype, also contributed to its shares’ decline.

Amazon.com Inc’s market value fell 4.5%, affected by slowing online sales.

Tesla’s market capitalization fell 7.7% last month after weaker Q2 earnings and following the news that Canada planned a new 100% tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles.

The world’s most valuable automaker started shipping Shanghai-made EVs to Canada last year and Ottawa’s plans raised concerns about the potential profit impact of exporting from its higher-cost US production base.

Meanwhile, Nvidia’s market value fell in the last week of August by 7.7% to USD 2.92 trillion, after it projected third-quarter gross margins below market estimates and reported revenues that only met expectations, disappointing investors who were expecting a stronger performance.

Nvidia, which commands more than 80% of the AI chip market, stands in a unique position as both the largest enabler as well as the beneficiary of surging AI development.

On a positive note, US drugmaker Eli Lilly’s market value surged nearly 20%, leading market gainers, driven by robust sales and the launch of a weight-loss drug that significantly reduces the risk of developing type 2 diabetes in overweight adults.

Berkshire Hathaway’s market value closed above USD 1 trillion for the first time at the end of August, reflecting investor confidence in the conglomerate that Warren Buffett built over nearly six decades into what many consider a proxy for the US economy.

Meta’s market value also climbed nearly 10% after it beat market expectations for its second-quarter revenues and forecast strong revenue growth in the July-September quarter, indicating that strong digital ad spending on its platforms could offset the costs of its AI investments.

(Reporting By Patturaja Murugaboopathy and Gaurav Dogra in Bengaluru; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)

Oil edges higher as halted Libyan exports balance expected OPEC+ supply boost

Oil edges higher as halted Libyan exports balance expected OPEC+ supply boost

Oil prices edged higher on Monday, recovering some losses from late last week, as Libyan oil exports remained halted and concerns about higher OPEC+ production from October eased.

US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 49 cents, or 0.7%, to USD 74.04 by 1924 GMT. Brent crude futures settled up 59 cents, or 0.8%, at USD 77.52 a barrel. Trading volumes were light as Monday marked a public holiday in the US market.

On Friday Brent and WTI lost 1.4% and 3.1%, respectively.

Oil exports at major Libyan ports were halted on Monday and production curtailed across the country, six engineers told Reuters, continuing a standoff between rival political factions over control of the central bank and oil revenue.

The country’s National Oil Corp. (NOC) also declared force majeure on El Feel oil field on Sept. 2.

“The current disturbances in Libya’s oil production could provide room for added supply from OPEC+. But these fluctuations have become quite normal over the last few years, meaning any outages will probably be short-lived; with the news flow indicating signals for a restart of production have already been given,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB.

Libya’s Arabian Gulf Oil Company resumed output of around 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) on Sunday, to feed a power plant at the port of Hariga.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, together known as OPEC+, is set to proceed with planned increases to oil output from October, six sources from the producer group told Reuters.

Eight OPEC+ members are scheduled to boost output by 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October as part of a plan to begin unwinding their most recent supply cuts of 2.2 million bpd while keeping other cuts in place until the end of 2025.

News of increased production helped push oil prices lower last week but the scale of the sell-off was overdone, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

“The market overreacted to how much supply is coming on and now it seems like the market has put that report into perspective,” Flynn said.

However, Brent and WTI have posted losses for two consecutive months as US and Chinese demand concerns have outweighed recent disruptions in Libya and supply risk related to conflict in the Middle East.

More pessimism about Chinese demand growth surfaced after an official survey showed on Saturday that manufacturing activity sank to a six-month low in August as factory gate prices tumbled and owners struggled for orders.

(Reporting by Nia Williams in British Columbia, Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru, and Florence Tan in Singapore; Editing by David Goodman, Jason Neely, and Aurora Ellis)

 

US stock rally broadens as investors await Fed

US stock rally broadens as investors await Fed

NEW YORK – A broadening rally in US stocks is offering an encouraging signal to investors worried about concentration in technology shares, as markets await key jobs data and the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cuts in September.

As the market’s fortunes keep rising and falling with big tech stocks such as Nvidia and Apple, investors are also putting money in less-loved value stocks and small caps, which are expected to benefit from lower interest rates. The Fed is expected to kick off a rate-cutting cycle at its monetary policy meeting on Sept. 17-18.

Many investors view the broadening trend, which picked up steam last month before faltering during an early August sell-off, as a healthy development in a market rally led by a cluster of giant tech names. Chipmaker Nvidia, which has benefited from bets on artificial intelligence, alone has accounted for roughly a quarter of the S&P 500’s year-to-date gain of 18.4%.

“No matter how you slice and dice it you have seen a pretty meaningful broadening out and I think that has legs,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment officer at Charles Schwab.

Value stocks are those of companies trading at a discount on metrics like book value or price-to-earnings and include sectors such as financials and industrials. Some investors believe rallies in these sectors and small caps could go further if the Fed cuts borrowing costs while the economy stays healthy.

The market’s rotation has recently accelerated, with 61% of stocks in the S&P 500 outperforming the index in the past month, compared to 14% outperforming over the past year, Charles Schwab data showed.

Meanwhile, the so-called Magnificent Seven group of tech giants – which includes Nvidia, Tesla and Microsoft – have underperformed the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 by 14 percentage points since the release of a weaker-than-expected US inflation report on July 11, according to an analysis by BofA Global Research.

Stocks have also held up after an Nvidia forecast failed to meet lofty investor expectations earlier this week, another sign that investors may be looking beyond tech. The equal weight S&P 500 index, a proxy for the average stock, hit a fresh record this week and is up around 10.5% year-to-date, narrowing its performance gap with the S&P 500.

“When market breadth is improving, the message is that an increasing number of stocks are rallying on expectations that economic conditions will support earnings growth and profitability,” analysts at Ned David Research wrote.

Value stocks that have performed well this year include General Electric and midstream energy company Targa Resources, which are up 70% and 68%, respectively. The small-cap-focused Russell 2000 index, meanwhile, is up 8.5% from its lows of the month, though it has not breached its July peak.

Next Friday’s non-farm payrolls report could help bolster the case for a broader market rally if it shows the labor market is cooling at a steady, though not alarming pace, said David Lefkowitz, head of US Equities for UBS Global Wealth Management.

The jobs report “tends to be one of the more market-moving releases in general, and right now it’s going to get even more attention than normal.”

Investors are unlikely to turn their back on tech stocks, particularly if volatility gives them a chance to buy on the cheap, said Jason Alonzo, a portfolio manager with Harbor Capital.

Technology stocks are expected to post above-market earnings growth over every quarter through 2025, with third-quarter earnings coming in at 15.3% compared with a 7.5% gain for the S&P 500 as a whole, according to LSEG data.

“People will sometimes take a deep breath after a nice run and look at other opportunities, but technology is still the clearest driver of growth, particularly the AI theme which is innocent until proven guilty,” Alonzo said.

(Reporting by David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Richard Chang)

 

US Treasury yields rise as inflation data points to smaller rate cut

US Treasury yields rise as inflation data points to smaller rate cut

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields advanced on Friday, with the benchmark 10-year note set to snap a two-week streak of declines, after economic data raised expectations the Federal Reserve was likely to opt for a small rate cut at its September meeting.

The Commerce Department said the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% last month, matching expectations of economists polled by Reuters, after an unrevised 0.1% gain in June. In the 12 months through July, the PCE price index increased 2.5%, matching June’s gain.

“Income and spending were a little better than expected while inflation was in line with expectations. This can reinforce the idea that the Fed has stuck the landing,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, rose 0.5% last month, also meeting expectations, after advancing by an unrevised 0.3% in June to show a strong economy early in the third quarter.

“The market’s focus is shifting more towards jobs and labor rather than inflation. It feels like the market’s pretty well convinced that inflation is moving in the right direction,” said Thomas Urano, co-chief investment officer at Sage Advisory in Austin, Texas.

“As long as it continues to move in that direction, then the focus is going to be on growth and in the job market.”

The US 10-year Treasury note yield rose 3.8 basis points to 3.905%, on track for its fifth straight daily gain and first weekly rise in three. However, the yield was still on course for the fourth straight monthly decline.

Markets are fully pricing in a rate cut of at least 25 basis points at the Fed’s mid-September meeting. Expectations for a 50 basis point cut dipped to 30.5% after the data, however, from 34% on Thursday, CME’s FedWatch Tool showed.

The 30-year bond yield climbed 4.4 basis points to 4.196%. The yield was set to snap a two-week streak of declines but was also poised for a fourth straight monthly drop.

Fed Chair Powell last week flagged the cooling in the labor market, which signaled a shift in the Fed’s focus on the job market over fighting inflation.

A survey from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment edged up to 67.9 in August from July’s eight-month low of 66.4, snapping a four-month slide, while inflation is expected to continue to moderate.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a negative 2 basis points.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 3.2 basis points to 3.925%. The yield was barely higher on the week but set for a fourth consecutive monthly decline.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.046% after closing at 2.057% on Aug. 29.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.154%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.2% a year for the next decade.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; editing by Barbara Lewis and Richard Chang)

 

Gold drops as dollar, yields firm after US inflation report

Gold drops as dollar, yields firm after US inflation report

Gold slipped 1% on Friday as the dollar and Treasury yields firmed after US inflation data matched expectations, but the bullion is set for a monthly gain as a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve remains in play.

Spot gold fell 0.9% to USD 2,497.53 per ounce as of 01:42 p.m. ET (1742 GMT) and US gold futures settled 1.3% lower at USD 2,527.6.

Bullion gained 2% this month after prices rallied to an all-time high of USD 2,531.60 on Aug. 20.

Data earlier in the day from the Commerce Department showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% last month, matching economists’ forecasts.

The PCE data confirms inflation is no longer the Fed’s main concern, as they have shifted their focus to unemployment, which further validates the potential rate cuts in September, said Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer at Allegiance Gold.

Investors now look ahead to the US non-farm payroll report due next week.

“Next week will solidify whether or not we have a 50- or 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the September meeting,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.

Traders slightly raised bets of a 25-basis-point rate reduction by the Fed next month to 69%, with a 50-bps cut possibility coming down to 31% following the inflation report, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Physical demand remained lackluster is top Asian consumers as new import quotas failed to lift Chinese demand.

“Systematic trend followers are effectively max-long. We also think that Shanghai positioning is near its record highs. That is despite the fact that physical demand in China has been fairly weak and inflows from Chinese gold ETFs as well,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Downside risks are significantly more elevated in the near term, given the fact that positioning looks extremely stretched, Ghali said.

Spot silver eased 2.2% to USD 28.78 per ounce and platinum fell 1.2% to USD 926.65. Both the metals registered monthly losses.

Palladium retreated 1.7% to USD 963.34, but posted a 4.3% monthly gain.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri and Shreya Biswas)

 

Oil settles USD 1 down as supply set to rise, uncertainty around Fed rate cuts

Oil settles USD 1 down as supply set to rise, uncertainty around Fed rate cuts

HOUSTON – Oil prices retreated on Friday as investors weighed expectations of a rise in OPEC+ supply starting in October, alongside dwindling hopes of a hefty US interest rate cut next month, following data showing strong consumer spending.

Brent crude futures for October delivery, which expire on Friday, settled USD 1.14 lower, or 1.43%, at USD 78.80 a barrel, marking a decline of 0.3% for the week and 2.4% for the month.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down USD 2.36, or 3.11%, to USD 73.55, a drop of 1.7% in the week and a 3.6% decline in August.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, is set to proceed with a planned oil output hike from October, as the Libyan outages and pledged cuts by some members to compensate for overproduction counter the impact of sluggish demand, six sources from the producer group told Reuters.

“OPEC+ talking about going ahead with tapering off production cuts was the headline that really sunk us today,” said Phil Flynn, analyst with Price Futures Group.

Meanwhile, investors responded to new data that showed US consumer spending increased solidly in July, suggesting the economy remained on firmer ground early in the third quarter and arguing against a half-percentage-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month.

Lower rates can boost economic growth and demand for oil.

“That modest inflation increase could basically solidify that we will only get a quarter-percentage-point cut and those hoping for a half will have to wait,” said Price Futures Group’s Flynn.

Elsewhere, Libya’s National Oil Corporation said recent oilfield closures have caused the loss of approximately 63% of the country’s total oil production, as a conflict between rival eastern and western factions continues.

Production losses could reach between 900,000 and 1 million barrels per day (bpd) and last for several weeks, according to consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group.

Libya’s eastern-based government announced the closure of all oil fields on Monday, halting production and exports and driving oil to settle at a near-two week high on Aug. 26.

“It is interesting to see the shutdown of Libya’s crude oil production have such an impact on market prices one day and completely ignored the next,” said Tim Snyder, chief economist at Matador Economics.

“It looks to me right now there is a lot of negative inertia in the market pulling prices down,” Snyder added.

Iraqi supplies are also expected to shrink after the country’s output surpassed its OPEC+ quota, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Thursday.

Iraq plans to reduce its oil output to between 3.85 million and 3.9 million bpd next month.

In the US, the number of active oil rigs was unchanged at 483 this week, but rose by one in August, Baker Hughes said.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, Alex Lawler in London, Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru, Emily Chow in Singapore, and Georgina McCartney in Houston; Editing by Marguerita Choy, Deepa Babington, and Jonathan Oatis)

 

RPT-Wall St Week Ahead-U.S. stock rally broadens as investors await Fed

RPT-Wall St Week Ahead-U.S. stock rally broadens as investors await Fed

Repeats with no changes to text

By David Randall

NEW YORK, Aug 30 (Reuters) –
A broadening rally in U.S. stocks is offering an encouraging signal to investors worried about concentration in technology shares, as markets await key jobs data and the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cuts in September.

As the market’s fortunes keep rising and falling with big tech stocks such as Nvidia NVDA.O and Apple AAPL.O, investors are also putting money in less-loved value stocks and small caps, which are expected to benefit from lower interest rates. The Fed is expected to kick off a rate-cutting cycle at its monetary policy meeting on Sept. 17-18.

Many investors view the broadening trend, which picked up steam last month before faltering during an early August sell-off, as a healthy development in a market rally led by a cluster of giant tech names. Chipmaker Nvidia, which has benefited from bets on artificial intelligence, alone has accounted for roughly a quarter of the S&P 500’s year-to-date gain of 18.4%.

“No matter how you slice and dice it you have seen a pretty meaningful broadening out and I think that has legs,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment officer at Charles Schwab.

Value stocks are those of companies trading at a discount on metrics like book value or price-to-earnings and include sectors such as financials and industrials. Some investors believe rallies in these sectors and small caps could go further if the Fed cuts borrowing costs while the economy stays healthy.

The market’s rotation has recently accelerated, with 61% of stocks in the S&P 500 .SPX outperforming the index in the past month, compared to 14% outperforming over the past year, Charles Schwab data showed.

Meanwhile, the so-called Magnificent Seven group of tech giants – which includes Nvidia, Tesla TSLA.O and Microsoft MSFT.O – have underperformed the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 by 14 percentage points since the release of a weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation report on July 11, according to an analysis by BofA Global Research.

Stocks have also held up after an Nvidia forecast failed to meet lofty investor expectations earlier this week, another sign that investors may be looking beyond tech. The equal weight S&P 500 index, a proxy for the average stock, hit a fresh record this week and is up around 10.5% year-to-date, narrowing its performance gap with the S&P 500.

“When market breadth is improving, the message is that an increasing number of stocks are rallying on expectations that economic conditions will support earnings growth and profitability,” analysts at Ned David Research wrote.

Value stocks that have performed well this year include General Electric GE.N and midstream energy company Targa Resources TRGP.N, which are up 70% and 68%, respectively. The small-cap focused Russell 2000 index, meanwhile, is up 8.5% from its lows of the month, though it has not breached its July peak.

The jobs report “tends to be one of the more market moving releases in general, and right now it’s going to get even more attention than normal.”

Investors are unlikely to turn their back on tech stocks, particularly if volatility gives them a chance to buy on the cheap, said Jason Alonzo, a portfolio manager with Harbor Capital.

Technology stocks are expected to post above-market earnings growth over every quarter through 2025, with third-quarter earnings coming in at 15.3% compared with a 7.5% gain for the S&P 500 as a whole, according to LSEG data.

“People will sometimes take a deep breath after a nice run and look at other opportunities, but technology is still the clearest driver of growth, particularly the AI theme which is innocent until proven guilty,” Alonzo said.

text_section_type=”notes”>Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. For the daily stock market report, please click .N

(Reporting by David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Richard Chang)

((David.Randall@thomsonreuters.com; 646-223-6607; Reuters Messaging: david.randall.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))

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