Safe-haven surge, Fed rate-cut bets drive gold beyond USD 4,300/oz

Gold hit a record high for the fourth straight session on Thursday and soared past USD 4,300 an ounce as investors flocked to the safe-haven metal on brewing US-China trade tensions and the US government shutdown, with rate cut bets fueling the momentum.

Spot gold was up 2.6% at USD 4,316.99 per ounce as of 4:07 p.m. ET (2007 GMT) after bullion touched a record high of USD 4,318.75 earlier.

US gold futures for December delivery settled 2.5% higher at USD 4,304.60, after touching a record high of USD 4,335/oz.

The yellow metal has gained over 60% year-to-date, driven by geopolitical tensions, aggressive rate-cut bets, central bank buying, de-dollarization, and robust ETF inflows.

“Gold’s trajectory will hinge on the rate-cut picture heading into 2026 as well as the developments around US-China. If no deal is reached between the US and China and the relationship continues to deteriorate, that could be the spark gold needs to cross the USD 5,000/oz barrier,” said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.

Investors this week have stayed focused on the simmering US-China trade spat, with Washington on Wednesday criticizing China’s expanded rare earth export controls as a threat to global supply chains.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump said he and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on Thursday to another summit to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, one day before the US president was due to speak with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Traders are pricing in a 25 basis-point US Federal Reserve rate cut in October, and another in December, with probabilities of 98% and 95%, respectively.

Non-yielding gold typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment.

Short-term pullbacks in gold are likely to be temporary, as bullish investors tend to use dips to re-enter positions, Vawda said.

HSBC raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to USD 3,355 an ounce on Wednesday, citing safe-haven demand from geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and a weaker US dollar.

Meanwhile, the ongoing US government shutdown has halted scheduled economic data, with a Treasury official warning it could cost the economy up to USD 15 billion a week in lost output.

Spot silver rose 1.8% to USD 54.04 per ounce, after hitting a record high of USD 54.15 earlier in the session, tracking gold’s rally and supported by tightness in the spot market.

Platinum rose 3.2% to USD 1,706.65 and palladium climbed 4.6% to USD 1,606.00.

(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore and Shailesh Kuber)

Dollar soft as Sino-US trade tension weighs

SINGAPORE – The US dollar slipped on Thursday as the Sino-US trade war sapped investor sentiment, while growing confidence of the US Federal Reserve cutting its policy interest rate this year also weighed on the greenback.

The euro rose 0.14% to USD 1.1664 in early trade, hitting a one-week high. The yen also firmed to a one-week high of 150.52 per dollar.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six other currencies, was down 0.16% at 98.512, headed for a weekly decline of 0.33%.

Investor focus has been on the trade spat between the world’s biggest economies, with US officials blasting China’s expansion of rare earth export controls as a threat to global supply chains.

China’s commerce ministry defended the controls, pointing to US measures on Chinese goods and companies and calling US criticism hypocritical.

TRUMP-XI MEETING

Amid the tit-for-tat action, US President Donald Trump still expects to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea this month, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.

Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC, noted the latest trade measures take effect in November after Trump and Xi meet.

“If the meeting goes ahead, some of last week’s measures could be toned down or even unwound and presented as successful deliverables.”

The sides have maintained lower tariffs and continued rare earth flows under a six-month trade truce that has been repeatedly extended for 90-day periods. Bessent has suggested a longer extension was possible.

“An extension, rather than a grand bargain that settles all trade issues, is probably the most realistic second-best outcome compared to the alternative of escalation of retaliation,” said Joseph Capurso, head of foreign exchange at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

The Australian dollar slipped 0.4% to USD 0.6485 after data showed unemployment hit a near four-year high in September, adding to the case for interest rate cuts.

The Aussie, often considered a proxy for risk appetite, has been volatile this week due to the trade tension as traditional havens including the Swiss franc gained. The franc was last firmer at 0.7952 per US dollar.

FED CUT WAGERS

With the US government shutdown entering third week, investors have focused on policymakers’ comments for a sense of the Fed’s near-term path.

Traders have priced in 48 basis points of easing this year, indicating increasing confidence for cuts at the Fed’s two remaining policy meetings this year.

US economic activity was little changed and employment largely stable in recent weeks, the Fed said on Wednesday, though there were signs of labour market weakness and a slight pullback in spending.

Meanwhile, attention will also be on Japanese political developments after parliament failed to set a date for its vote on a new prime minister.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party chose Sanae Takaichi as its chief this month but her path to becoming Japan’s first female prime minister has become trickier after the Komeito party chose to end their coalition last week.

The uncertainty could be an overhang for the yen though external factors have aided flows to such havens, analysts said.

“The cost of becoming prime minister is likely to be looser budget settings,” CBA’s Capurso said. “There is unlikely to be much, if any, political support for policy tightening by the Bank of Japan.”

(Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Christopher Cushing)

Oil prices up 1% after Trump says India promised to stop buying Russian oil

TOKYO – Oil prices rose by around 1% in early trade on Thursday after US President Donald Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had pledged his country would stop buying oil from Russia, which supplies about one-third of its imports.

Brent crude futures rose 57 cents, or 0.9%, to USD 62.48 a barrel at 0046 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures CLc1 also added 0.9%, or 54 cents, to trade at USD 58.81.

Both contracts touched their lowest since early May in the previous session on US-China trade tensions and after the International Energy Agency warned of a big surplus next year as OPEC+ producers and rivals lift output amid weak demand.

Trump said on Wednesday that India would halt oil purchases from its top supplier Russia, and the US would next try to get China to do the same as Washington intensifies efforts to cut off Moscow’s energy revenues and pressure it to negotiate a peace deal in Ukraine.

India and China are the two top buyers of Russian seaborne crude exports, which are sanctioned by the US and European Union. For months, Modi resisted US pressure to stop buying Russian oil, with Indian officials defending the purchases as vital to national energy security.

“At the margin, this is a positive development for the crude oil price as it would remove a big buyer (India) of Russian oil,” said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG.

Later on Thursday, investors will be watching for the weekly US inventory statistics release from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) after mixed data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) trade group.

US crude and gasoline stocks rose while distillate inventories fell last week, market sources said, citing API figures on Wednesday.

Crude stocks rose by 7.36 million barrels in the week ended October 10 and gasoline inventories increased by 2.99 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 4.79 million barrels from a week earlier, the sources said.

While lower distillate inventories point to stronger demand for diesel, a buildup in crude oil and gasoline stocks suggests demand in the US, the world’s top oil consumer, remains sluggish.

Analysts forecast that US crude stockpiles rose by about 0.3 million barrels last week.

(Reporting by Katya Golubkova in Tokyo; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Jamie Freed)

Gold extends record run past USD 4,200 on rate-cut hopes, safe-haven fervor

Gold prices breached USD 4,200 per ounce for the first time on Wednesday, extending a record rally as rising interest rate cut bets and geopolitical jitters send investors flocking to the safe-haven metal.

Spot gold rose 1.3% to USD 4,195.35 per ounce as of 1:57 p.m. ET (1757 GMT), after hitting an all-time high of USD 4,217.95 earlier.

US gold futures for December delivery settled up 0.9% to USD 4,201.60.

“The metal has been on a tear, and it doesn’t look like it wants to stop … With US-China trade tensions being reignited in the last few days, investors have even more reason to hedge their long equity bets by diversifying into gold,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com.

Gold has surged over 60% this year, driven by a confluence of factors including geopolitical tensions, rate-cut bets, central bank buying, de-dollarisation and strong ETF inflows.

“With the USD 5,000 handle now just USD 800 away, I wouldn’t bet against gold getting there eventually,” Razaqzada said, adding that a short-term correction is likely to shake out weaker hands and attract fresh dip buyers.

The dollar slipped against a basket of peers after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a dovish tone on Tuesday, saying the US labour market remained mired in “low-hiring, low-firing doldrums.”

Gold is considered a traditional hedge against uncertainty and inflation, and also thrives in low-rate environments as it is a non-yielding asset.

Traders are pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut in October, with a 98% probability, followed by another cut in December, which is fully priced in at 100%.

Adding to the safe-haven bid, US President Donald Trump said Washington was considering cutting some trade ties with China after both sides imposed tit-for-tat port fees this week.

Markets are also watching the US government shutdown, which has halted official data and may cloud policymakers’ outlook abroad.

Silver climbed 2.3% to USD 52.64, following Tuesday’s record high of USD 53.60.

Silver’s surge is driven by a tight London supply, marked by extreme backwardation and record lease rates, but it could reverse quickly if shortages ease, said Michael Brown, senior strategist at Pepperstone.

Elsewhere, platinum climbed 0.6% to USD 1,647.55, while palladium fell 0.2% to USD 1,523.66.

(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala, Alan Barona, and Shreya Biswas)

Oil settles higher as US, China try to de-escalate trade tensions

NEW YORK – Oil prices rose on Monday after assurances that US President Donald Trump will meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping later in October, easing a flare-up in trade tensions between the world’s top two economies that had pushed crude benchmarks to five-month lows on Friday.

Brent crude futures settled 59 cents higher, or 0.9%, at USD 63.32 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures also closed up 59 cents, or 1%, at USD 59.49 a barrel.

Both contracts fell around 4% on Friday to settle at their lowest since May, after Trump threatened to cancel the meeting with Xi and to impose steep new tariffs on imports from China.

However, US Treasury Scott Bessent said on Monday that the meeting between the US and Chinese leaders remains on track to be held in South Korea in late October, and noted substantial communications between the two sides over the weekend.

“We have substantially de-escalated,” Bessent said in an interview with Fox Business Network.

The selloff in markets now looked to be capped by Washington and Beijing’s willingness to negotiate, DBS analyst Suvro Sarkar said, adding the near-term outlook hinged on the eventual outcome of the trade talks.

Oil prices tumbled in March and April at the height of trade tensions between the two countries.

“Any reduction in international trade can only be bearish for oil,” PVM energy analysts said in a note to clients.

On the demand side, China’s crude imports in September rose 3.9% from a year earlier to 11.5 million barrels per day, customs data showed.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries kept its relatively high global oil demand growth forecasts unchanged for this year and next.

In a monthly report on Monday, OPEC implied that the oil market will see a much smaller supply deficit in 2026 as the wider OPEC+ group pushes ahead with output increases.

Meanwhile, prospects of peace in the Middle East limited gains in oil prices. Palestinian militant group Hamas freed the last 20 surviving Israeli hostages on Monday under a US-brokered ceasefire deal.

Trump proclaimed the “historic dawn of a new Middle East” after two years of war in Gaza. Still, traders want to see the peace hold before factoring it into their bets on oil prices, PVM analysts noted.

“(Oil) market has been skeptical by voting with price as to any bullish influence on the recent outbreak of violence, it likewise too will wait for proof of a ceasefire that holds for more than just a couple of days,” the PVM analysts said.

(Reporting by Shariq Khan, Enes Tunagur, Ahmad Ghaddar, and Florence Tan; Editing by Susan Fenton, Bernadette Baum, Frances Kerry, and David Gregorio)

Gold breaks USD 4,100 to hit high on trade jitters, rate-cut optimism

Gold broke through USD 4,100 per ounce for the first time on Monday, hitting another record high on renewed US-China trade tensions and expectations of US interest rate cuts, while silver also rose to an all-time high.

Spot gold was up 2.2% to USD 4,106.48 per ounce, as of 01:47 p.m. ET (1747 GMT), after hitting a record USD 4,116.77.

US gold futures for December settled 3.3% higher at USD 4,133.

Gold has climbed 56% this year and scaled the USD 4,000 milestone for the first time last week, driven by factors including geopolitical and economic uncertainties, expectations of US interest rate cuts and robust central bank buying.

“Gold could easily continue its upward momentum. We could see prices north of USD 5,000 by the end of 2026,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.

Steady central bank purchases, firm ETF inflows, US-China trade tensions and the prospect of lower US interest rates are providing structural support for the market, Streible added.

On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump reignited trade tensions with China on Friday, ending an uneasy truce between the world’s two largest economies.

Meanwhile, traders are pricing in a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in October and a 100% chance for December. Gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments.

Analysts at Bank of America and Societe Generale now expect gold to reach USD 5,000 in 2026, while Standard Chartered has raised its forecast to an average of USD 4,488 next year.

“This rally has legs in our view, but a near-term correction would be healthier for a longer-term uptrend,” said Suki Cooper, global head, commodities research at Standard Chartered Bank.

Spot silver rose 3.1% to USD 51.82, touching a record high of USD 52.12 earlier in the session, buoyed by the same factors supporting gold and spot market tightness.

Technical indicators show both are overbought, with the relative strength index (RSI) at 80 for gold and 83 for silver.

Platinum rose 3.9% to USD 1,648.25, and palladium gained 5.2% to USD 1,478.94.

(Reporting by Noel John, Pablo Sinha, and Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Kavya Balaraman; Editing by Joe Bavier, Alexander Smith, and Shreya Biswas)

Gold poised for eighth weekly rise on firm safe-haven demand

Gold edged higher on Friday and headed for its eighth straight weekly gain, as lingering geopolitical and economic uncertainty alongside expectations for interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve boosted demand for bullion.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold was up 0.1% to USD 3,977.87 per ounce as of 0120 GMT. Bullion is up 2.3% so far this week.

* US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.5% to USD 3,992.40.

* New York Fed President John Williams signaled on Thursday he would be comfortable with cutting rates again, despite some policymakers’ qualms about rising inflation that suggest such a decision won’t be easily made.

* Traders currently price in a 25-basis-point cut in October and another in December, with a 95% and 82% chance, respectively, according to CME FedWatch Tool.

* Markets this week have grappled with political turmoil in Japan and France alongside an ongoing US government shutdown, all of which have done little to stoke confidence in investors, who have sought safety in gold.

* The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased again last week, economists estimated on Thursday, hinting at some early layoffs of contractors related to the US government shutdown.

* Bullion surged past USD 4,000 per ounce for the first time on Wednesday, reaching a record high of USD 4,059.05. The non-yielding asset, traditionally considered a hedge during geopolitical and economic uncertainty, has gained about 52% this year.

* SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.11% to 1,013.44 metric tons on Thursday from 1,014.58 tons on Wednesday.

* Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company (KMAMC) has temporarily suspended fresh lump-sum and switch-in investments into the Kotak Silver ETF Fund of Fund, effective October 10, 2025, the company said in a statement on Thursday.

* Elsewhere, spot silver climbed 1.2% to USD 49.70 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of USD 51.22 on Thursday. Platinum rose 0.4% to USD 1,625.30 and palladium gained 1% to USD 1,426.

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)
0300	China Overall Comprehensive Risk Q4
0300	Japan Overall Comprehensive Risk Q4
1400	US U Mich Sentiment Prelim Oct

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich)

Oil little changed amid fading risk premium after Gaza deal

Oil prices were little changed in early Asian trade on Friday after falling more than 1% in the previous session, as the market’s war risk premium faded after Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of a plan to end the war in Gaza.

Brent crude futures were up 9 cents, or 0.1%, at USD 65.31 a barrel by 0044 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 12 cents, or 0.2%, to USD 61.63.

Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed a ceasefire agreement on Thursday in the first phase of US President Donald Trump’s initiative to end the war in Gaza.

Under the deal, which Israel’s government ratified on Friday, fighting will cease, Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza, and Hamas will free all remaining hostages it captured in the attack that precipitated the war, in exchange for hundreds of prisoners held by Israel.

Prices had reached a one-week high following gains of around 1% on Wednesday due to the stalled progress on a Ukraine peace deal, a sign that sanctions against the world’s second-largest oil exporter Russia could continue.

On a weekly basis, both benchmarks were still up around 1.2% after falling steeply last week.

The Gaza ceasefire deal was a major step towards ending the two-year war that has raised the risk of oil supply disruptions, Daniel Hynes, an analyst at ANZ, said in a note on Friday.

“This (deal) saw the focus move back to the impending oil surplus, as OPEC proceeds with the unwinding of production cuts,” Hynes said.

A smaller-than-expected November hike in output agreed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) on Sunday eased some of those oversupply concerns.

Investors are also worried that a prolonged US government shutdown could dampen the American economy and hurt oil demand.

(Reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by Tom Hogue)

Oil falls on Gaza plan, fading Middle East risk premium

Oil prices fell in early trade on Thursday after Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of a plan to end the war in Gaza, weighing on oil’s war risk premium and pushing investors to sell.

Brent crude futures were down 51 cents, or 0.77%, at USD 65.74 a barrel by 0002 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 55 cents, or 0.88%, to USD 62.

US President Donald Trump said that Israel and Hamas had reached a long-sought deal for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release under a plan for ending the two-year-old war in the Palestinian enclave.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would convene the government on Thursday to approve the ceasefire agreement.

The war in Gaza has supported oil prices as investors have weighed the potential risk to global oil supply if the war were to develop into a wider regional conflict.

Prices had gained around 1% on Wednesday to reach a one-week high after investors viewed stalled progress on a Ukraine peace deal as sustaining sanctions against Russia.

Meanwhile, total weekly US petroleum products supplied, a proxy for US oil consumption, rose last week to 21.990 million barrels per day, the most since December 2022, showed a report from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston; Editing by Christopher Cushing)

US gold futures top USD 4,000 mark as record run gathers pace

US gold futures surged past the USD 4,000 per ounce milestone for the first time on Tuesday, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month and persistent safe-haven demand due to the ongoing US government shutdown.

US gold futures for December delivery settled 0.7% higher at USD 4,004.4, after hitting a high of USD 4,014.6.

Spot gold was up 0.6% to USD 3,985.82 per ounce as of 01:48 p.m. EDT (17:48 GMT), after hitting an all-time high of USD 3,990.85 earlier in the session.

The primary market for spot gold is the London over-the-counter (OTC) market, which serves as the global benchmark for pricing.

“It’s ongoing safe-haven flows stemming in part from the government shutdown and no real indication that is likely to be resolved in the immediate term here. So there’s still a pretty decent bid in gold,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Non-yielding gold, which tends to do well during times of uncertainty and low interest-rate environments, has climbed 51% so far this year. The metal’s rally has been driven by a cocktail of factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts, ongoing political and economic uncertainty, solid central bank buying, inflows into gold ETFs and a weak dollar.

The US government shutdown entered its seventh day on Tuesday. The shutdown has postponed the release of key economic indicators, forcing investors to rely on secondary, non-government data to gauge the timing and extent of Fed rate cuts.

Investors are now pricing in a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed meeting this month, with an additional 25-bp cut anticipated in December.

Meanwhile, political turmoil in France and Japan gripped currency and bond markets for a second day.

China’s central bank added gold to its reserves in September for the 11th straight month, data from the People’s Bank of China showed.

Goldman Sachs raised on Monday its December 2026 gold price forecast to USD 4,900 per ounce from USD 4,300, citing strong Western exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and likely central bank buying.

Elsewhere, spot silver was down 1.4% at USD 47.86 per ounce, platinum fell 0.5% to USD 1,617.41 and palladium was up 2.1% at USD 1,347.52.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Kavya Balaraman in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Sarah Qureshi; Editing by Vijay Kishore and Nick Zieminski)

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