US yields climb as ADP data shows solid job growth amid Middle East conflict

NEW YORK – Longer-dated US Treasury yields rose on Wednesday after economic data pointed to a stable labor market while investors monitored escalating Middle East hostilities after Iran fired missiles against Israel.

US private payrolls increased by a more than expected 143,000 jobs in September, according to the ADP National Employment Report, above the 120,000 estimate of economists polled by Reuters, adding to signs the labor market may not be cooling as fast as some initial concerns.

Yields had moved sharply lower in the prior session as Iran launched more than 180 missiles against Israel in an escalation of tensions in the region.

On Wednesday, Israel said eight of its soldiers were killed in combat in south Lebanon as its forces moved into its northern neighbor in a campaign against the Hezbollah armed group.

The US data comes ahead of the release on Friday of the government’s more comprehensive employment report for September. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other central bank officials have signaled the Fed’s primary focus has shifted from combating inflation to ensuring a stable labor market.

The Fed kicked off its rate cut cycle in September with a big 50 basis point reduction.

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 4 basis points at 3.783%. The yield has fallen for five straight months, including a third-quarter drop of more than 50 basis points as investors have anticipated an easier monetary policy from the Fed.

“The one thing to keep in mind is we’d had a rip-roaring rally, in reaction to what has been a handful of months of slower data, moderating inflation, that got capped with the Fed cutting interest rates 50 basis points,” said Robert Tipp, chief Investment Strategist and head of global bonds at PGIM Fixed Income in Newark, New Jersey.

“This market had come a long way very fast and yesterday’s geopolitical risk took down another rung but given 12 hours to think about it and nothing more grave developing set the markets up to get back some of the rally.

“With a mild-upside surprise on ADP it’s giving the market some natural pause here, to reflect on whether it’s overreacted to all the bullish data of recent weeks and months.”

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the central bank’s cut in September was an acknowledgement that its policy rate was “out of sync” with where the economy stands, but shouldn’t be seen as a sign the battle with inflation is finished.

Expectations for another cut of 50 bps at the November meeting have been decreasing recently, with markets pricing in a 34.7% chance, down from 57.4% a week ago, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose 5.2 bps to 4.133%.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 14.6 bps.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, edged up 1.4 bps at 3.635%.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.13%, after closing at 2.097% on Tuesday, its highest close since July 31.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.217%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging 2.2% a year for the next decade.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Nick Zieminski)

Middle East uncertainty after Iran attack makes for tricky trading

LONDON/NEW YORK – Iran’s attack on Israel has rekindled the allure of safe havens and oil prices have surged, but with no clarity yet on how the Middle East situation will evolve, investors are treading tentatively.

Their key question is whether Iran’s strike marks an escalation, or is more of a one-off backlash at Israel.

Mohit Kumar, a strategist at Jefferies, called the reaction “guarded” as investors await Israel’s response.

Israel has said there will be consequences after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles in what Tehran said was a retaliation for the Israeli campaign against Hezbollah.

Classic safe-havens like gold, government bonds and the Swiss franc surged on Tuesday and were holding most of those gains on Wednesday, while oil traded above USD 75 a barrel.

“Geopolitics is impossible to trade and hence keeping a low-risk profile would be a prudent strategy,” Kumar said.

Past bouts of heightened geopolitical tension, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, resulted in sharp but short-lived market moves during which investors fled risky assets and piled into havens such as gold and the dollar.

Global stocks edged lower on Wednesday, while government bonds US10YT=RR gave up some gains.

Equities and other risky assets sold off in April, when a previous round of missiles fired by Iran at Israel – the first ever – was shot down with the help of the US military and other allies. Israel responded with airstrikes, but wider escalation was averted and markets recovered those initial losses.

This time, investors’ decisions may rest on Israel’s response and whether the conflict with Iran escalates.

“It’s not just about reacting to headlines, but positioning yourself for both immediate market volatility and long-term impacts,” Saxo Bank head of FX strategy and global market strategy Charu Chanana said.

“Geopolitical risks are constant and your portfolio should be ready for them,” she said.

Gold is already up nearly 30% this year, thanks in large part to a decline in the dollar in response to a slowing US economy and the Federal Reserve’s decision to deliver steep interest-rate cuts to ward off more weakness.

One specific concern for investors is oil prices, which have jumped 5.2% in two days, as the risk of supply disruptions from the Gulf region increases. A more protracted conflict could push up energy prices worldwide.

This, in turn, complicates the job of central bankers, who are now intent on lowering borrowing costs to insulate the global economy as it gradually slows, as inflation has subsided since the punishing highs of 2021.

“The main message from geopolitics is inflation hasn’t gone away,” said Trevor Greetham, Royal London Asset Management head of multi-asset.

Beyond tensions in the Middle East, there are several potential catalysts that could keep investors on edge, including the US election in November and a key jobs report this week that will help shape the Fed’s policy direction.

The Cboe Volatility Index, an options-based indicator of demand for protection from market swings, rose on Wednesday, but by just 0.6%, compared with Tuesday’s 15% surge to a three-week high of 20.73.

“Although the VIX is edging higher it remains sufficiently just below 20 to suggest that markets – including the crude oil market – do not yet envision an all-out military scenario,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial.

Either way, trading is likely to remain jittery.

“Markets … are likely to display an incredibly high sensitivity to incoming geopolitical news flow in the coming hours,” said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone.

(Additional reporting by Naomi Rovnik in London; Suzanne McGee, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Lisa Pauline Mattackal, and Lewis Krauskopf; Writing by Ira Iosebashvili and Amanda Cooper; Editing by Megan Davies, Matthew Lewis, and Alexander Smith)

Indexes end down as Iran launches missiles at Israel; defense shares rise

NEW YORK – US stocks ended lower, with the Nasdaq losing more than 1%, on Tuesday as investors grew more cautious after Iran fired missiles at Israel.

Iran launched the salvo of ballistic missiles in retaliation for Israel’s campaign against Tehran’s Hezbollah allies. In response, US President Joe Biden directed the US military to aid Israel’s defense and shoot down missiles aimed at Israel, the White House National Security Council said.

While the broader market fell, shares of energy companies rose along with US oil prices, which settled up 2.4%. Shares of Exxon Mobil gained 2.3%.

Defense stocks also rose, including Northrop Grumman, which rallied 3%, and Lockheed Martin, up 3.6%. The S&P 500 aerospace and defense index climbed to a record high. Utilities were up 0.8%.

Airline shares fell, including Delta Air Lines, which was down 1.6%.

Investors avoided risk following the Middle East news, but indexes ended off their lows of the day.

“If we do see further escalation I could see continued market weakness because we just don’t know how far this is going to go,” said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.

“The level of risk has increased. The markets have had a good year and people can get scared out of the market depending on what happens over the next couple of weeks.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 173.18 points, or 0.41%, to 42,156.97, the S&P 500 lost 53.73 points, or 0.93%, at 5,708.75 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 278.81 points, or 1.53%, to 17,910.36.

On Monday, the three major US indexes scored strong gains for September and for the quarter.

CBOE’s market volatility index, Wall Street’s fear gauge, rose.

Data released early on Tuesday showed US job openings rebounded in August, while the Institute for Management Supply’s (ISM) report showed manufacturing activity stood at 47.2 in September, versus estimates of 47.5.

Investors were also cautious ahead of US jobless claims data on Thursday and monthly payrolls on Friday.

Traders are pricing in a 38% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 50 basis points in November, up from bets of around 35% on Monday but down from 58% a week ago, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed.

The US central bank on Sept. 18 cut rates by 50 basis points, kicking off a new easing cycle.

Investors also monitored a port strike on the East Coast and the Gulf Coast, halting the flow of about half the nation’s ocean shipping.

The strike that began on Tuesday is not expected to cause global supply problems as deep or severe as during the COVID-19 pandemic, but still creates more economic uncertainty for Fed policymakers to assess.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.32-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.36-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 51 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 75 new highs and 137 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was 13.16 billion shares, compared with the 11.98 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Additional reporting by Johann M Cherian and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel and Richard Chang)

Oil prices rise more than USD 1 on escalating tensions in the Middle East

TOKYO – US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose by USD 1.09, or 1.56%, to USD 70.92 per barrel at 2254 GMT on fears of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East after Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel.

Brent futures will resume trading at 0000 GMT on Wednesday. Brent gained USD 1.86, or 2.6%, on Tuesday to settle at USD 73.56 a barrel.

Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday, Israel said, in retaliation for Israel’s campaign against Tehran’s Hezbollah allies in Lebanon.

Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is a major oil producer in the region.

“The direct involvement of Iran, an OPEC member, raises the prospect of disruptions to oil supplies,” ANZ Research said in a note, referring to the conflict.

Iran’s oil output rose to a six-year high of 3.7 million barrels per day in August, ANZ added.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised Iran would pay for its missile attack against Israel, while Tehran said any retaliation would be met with “vast destruction”, raising fears of a wider war.

US President Joe Biden expressed full US support for Israel, its longtime ally, and the U.N. Security Council scheduled a meeting on the Middle East for Wednesday.

(Reporting by Katya Golubkova; Editing by Jamie Freed)

Overseas Chinese equity funds see big inflows after stimulus measures

Foreign exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focusing on Chinese equities received massive inflows in the past three days, buoyed by optimism following aggressive stimulus measures announced by Beijing last week.

According to LSEG Lipper data, foreign equity ETFs received inflows of USD 2.4 billion in the last three trading sessions of September. The same funds had seen outflows of USD 2.7 billion from the start of the year up to Sept. 25.

Over those three trading sessions, the Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF attracted approximately USD 518.21 million in inflows, while the iShares Core CSI 300 ETF RMB and the iShares China Large-Cap ETF FXI saw net purchases of USD 302.3 million and USD 295.8 million, respectively.

China’s stock markets surged after Beijing introduced a flurry of stimulus measures last week, including substantial rate cuts and fiscal support, aimed at revitalizing the sluggish economy and boosting the beleaguered market.

On Monday, the CSI300 blue-chip index surged 8% to its highest level in over a year, clocking a 25% rise in five trading days.

The index climbed nearly 21% in September, rebounding from previous declines caused by China’s struggling economy, which had weighed on stocks, fueled capital flight and driven investors towards safer assets.

Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said Chinese equities have potential for further gains, but sustained reforms are necessary to maintain the rally.

“Part of our own optimism this time around reflects our anticipation of significant additional fiscal and monetary support, including 50-100 basis points of cuts to banks’ reserve requirement ratio and 20-50bps of policy rate cuts by end first-half 2025,” he said.

“We also anticipate multiple rounds of fiscal stimulus worth 2-5 trillion yuan, focused on affordable housing and investing in social welfare.”

(Reporting by Patturaja Murugaboopathy and Gaurav Dogra in Bengaluru; Editing by Vidya Ranganathan and Hugh Lawson)

Middle East tensions send US Treasury yields lower

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields fell on Tuesday as Iran launched missiles at Israel which boosted demand for safe-haven assets, but were off earlier lows on hopes any further escalation was not imminent.

Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday in retaliation for Israel’s campaign against Tehran’s Hezbollah allies in Lebanon, while Israel vowed a “powerful response.”

A warning by the US that the launch was likely pushed yields to session lows, with the 10-year dropping to 3.696%, its lowest since Sept. 18, and the 2-year falling to 3.572%.

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the strike appeared to have been defeated and Iran and its proxies will continue to be monitored for further threats.

The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note was down 6.3 basis points to 3.739%.

“It was a reaction to see what the response was going to be based on the information, based on some of the headline news, everybody was on kind of standby, and then once you started to see things play out the market was able to settle down,” said Jim Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.

“Once you have your initial response, now we’ll just wait and see and hopefully this pause will hold and then the market will change their attention now back to some of the morning data, which obviously has more and longer-term implications for yields.”

In US economic data, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, showed job openings, a measure of labor demand, rebounded by 329,000 to 8.040 million, but hiring was soft and consistent with a cooling labor market.

The manufacturing sector held steady at weaker levels in September, as the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 47.2 last month, slightly below the 47.5 estimate of economists polled by Reuters. A PMI reading below 50 indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector.

The yield on the 30-year bond fell 5.5 basis points to 4.078%.

Yields had risen on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the central bank will take a gradual approach in cutting interest rates.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 12 basis points after dropping to a positive 9.6, its flattest since Sept. 19.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, shed 3.4 basis points to 3.617%.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.094% after closing at 2.086% on Sept. 30.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.188%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.2% a year for the next decade.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Chizu Nomiyama)

Markets bunker down as Iran-Israel tensions spark

The final quarter of the year is underway, and the sense of caution that characterized its open on Tuesday could not be further removed from the ebullience and optimism that marked the end of the third quarter 24 hours earlier.

Investors fled risky assets like stocks for the safety of US Treasuries, gold, and the dollar as Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday in retaliation for Israel’s campaign against Tehran’s Hezbollah allies in Lebanon.

The S&P 500 and global stocks had their worst day in a month, the 10-year US bond yield registered its steepest fall in a month, and oil rose 3%, after being up 5% at one stage.

On top of the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, the sense of gloom hanging over markets on Tuesday was heightened by the steep decline in a closely-watched tracking model estimate of US GDP growth.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for third quarter US GDP growth on Tuesday was cut to 2.5% from 3.1% last week. The fall of six-tenths of one percent was the biggest decline since the Q3 tracking estimates was launched in late July.

This will set the tone on Wednesday for markets across Asia. Chinese markets are closed for Golden Week, and the major economic releases will be inflation and manufacturing purchasing managers index data from South Korea, and consumer confidence from Japan.

Although oil spiked sharply on Tuesday, the deeply negative year-on-year price of oil is a major reason why inflation around the world is cooling, and much faster than many economists and policymakers had expected.

In many cases, like the eurozone, inflation is already at or even below the 2% target that many central banks aim for. Figures on Wednesday from Seoul are expected to show that annual consumer inflation in South Korea eased to 1.9% in September from 2.0% in August.

That would be the lowest, and also the first time below that 2% threshold, since March 2021.

Japan’s markets should be a little calmer on Wednesday, even though Nikkei futures point to a fall of more than 1% at the open, as the dust begins to settle on the major political upheaval of recent days.

Investors are getting used to what they might expect from new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, once considered a monetary policy hawk who now appears to have softened his stance.

He said on Tuesday that he hoped the Bank of Japan would maintain loose monetary policy “as a trend”, and that his administration will carry over the economic policy of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and “ensure Japan fully emerges from deflation.”

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Wednesday:

– South Korea inflation (September)

– South Korea manufacturing PMI (September)

– Japan consumer confidence (September)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever)

Record run steers gold to best quarter in four years

Gold eased on Monday, taking a breather after a historic rally driven by US monetary easing and heightened Middle East tensions, which put it on course for its best quarter since 2020.

Spot gold was down 0.9% at USD 2,634.75 per ounce as of 02:08 p.m. ET (1808 GMT).

US gold futures settled 0.3% lower at USD 2,659.40.

Gold has risen over 13% so far this quarter, which would be its best since early 2020, having hit an all-time high of USD 2,685.42 on Thursday, fuelled by the US Federal Reserve’s half-percentage-point cut and flare-ups in the Middle East.

“There may be some rotation out of precious metals into shares, but I don’t think that’s going to last … undoubtedly, the trend is up in gold,” said Peter A. Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist, Zaner Metals.

Analysts said bullion’s run was reined in by profit-taking and a surge in Chinese stocks.

When risk appetite rises, investors generally shy away from safe-haven gold, although its recent gains have come alongside a rise in equities, especially after the Fed’s oversized cut, as lower interest rates also burnish appeal for zero-yield bullion.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday predicted a continued slowdown in the country’s inflation, which could lead to a cut in the central bank’s interest rate. This move could eventually lift the constraints on economic activity “over time.”

“We see more consolidation (in gold) in the near term,” said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper.

“At this stage, the main catalyst seems to be around macro drivers and monetary policy. So, the scope for surprises in terms of the pace of rate cuts would potentially be the main trigger.”

If gold prices retreat, particularly alongside a strengthening yuan, Chinese physical demand could rebound in the fourth quarter, Heraeus analysts said in a note.

Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast to USD 2,900 per ounce from USD 2,700 per ounce for early 2025.

Silver dipped 1.7% at USD 31.08 per ounce, but was set for a 6.7% quarterly rise.

Platinum shed 2.2% to USD 977.90. Palladium declined 1.5% to USD 996.00, but was headed for a quarterly gain.

(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Shreya Biswas and Alan Barona)

Oil slumps 17% in Q3 as Middle East conflict offset by slowing demand

NEW YORK – Oil prices were little changed on Monday, but posted a 17% loss for the third quarter as fears that a widening conflict in the Middle East could curtail crude supply were overshadowed by waning global demand concerns.

Brent crude futures for November delivery, which expired on Monday, fell 21 cents to settle at USD 71.77 a barrel. Meanwhile, the more actively traded Brent contract for December delivery gained 27 cents to USD 71.81.

The global benchmark posted a 9% drop in September, its biggest monthly decline since November 2022, and after falling a third consecutive month, it slumped 17% in the third quarter, its biggest quarterly loss in a year.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell a cent to settle at USD 68.17. The US benchmark tumbled 7% in September in its biggest monthly decline since October 2023, and slumped 16% in its biggest quarterly drop since the third quarter 2023.

On Monday, prices were supported by the possibility that Iran, a key producer and member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, may be directly drawn into a widening Middle East conflict.

Since last week, Israel has escalated attacks, conducting strikes which have killed Hezbollah and Hamas leaders in Lebanon and hit Houthi targets in Yemen. The three groups are backed by Iran.

The market is weighing whether the Middle East conflict will spread in the region, said Tim Snyder, economist at Matador Economics.

Oil prices had a muted response to Beijing’s announcement last week of fiscal stimulus measures in the world’s second-biggest economy and top oil importer.

Traders question whether the measures will be enough to boost China’s weaker-than-expected demand so far this year.

Concerns about rising global crude supplies are also weighing on prices for the month.

Oil prices slid last week on a report that Saudi Arabia, which is the de facto leader of OPEC, was preparing to abandon its unofficial price target of USD 100 a barrel for crude as it prepares to increase output.

“We are proceeding on the premise that last week’s Saudi decision to ramp up production in December will be an overriding bearish consideration to this market for weeks to come,” said Jim Ritterbusch of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates.

Data on Monday was not encouraging for demand, showing China’s manufacturing activity shrank for a fifth straight month and the services sector slowed sharply in September.

The prospect of Libyan oil output recovering also weighed on the market. Libya’s eastern-based parliament agreed on Monday to approve the nomination of a new central bank governor, a move that could help end the crisis that slashed the country’s oil output.

(Reporting by Nicole Jao and Laila Kearney in New York, Paul Carsten in London, Gabrielle Ng, and Katya Golubkova; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Leslie Adler)

S&P 500 ekes out record closing high; declines briefly after Powell

The S&P 500 sputtered to a record high close on Monday, rebounding from a brief setback after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US central bank is in no hurry to implement further interest rate cuts.

The Dow also posted an all-time closing high. The three major US stock indexes registered gains for the quarter and for the month.

Powell, at a National Association for Business Economics conference in Nashville, Tennessee, said he sees two more rate cuts, totaling 50 basis points, this year as a baseline if the economy evolves as expected.

“The majority of investors think all of the Fed’s activities are baked in for the remainder of the year. (But) I think there’s more to 2024 Fed than maybe we know about,” said Jake Dollarhide, chief executive officer of Longbow Asset Management in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

“In fact, the soft landing could actually happen.”

The Fed earlier this month began a new easing cycle with a large 50 basis point rate cut.

Traders are pricing in a 35% chance of a 50 basis point reduction in November, down from around 37% before Powell’s speech and 53% on Friday, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 17.15 points, or 0.04%, to 42,330.15. The S&P 500 gained 24.31 points, or 0.42%, at 5,762.48 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 69.58 points, or 0.38%, to 18,189.17.

For the month, the S&P 500 gained 2% and posted its best September since 2013 and a fifth straight month of increases. For the quarter, the S&P 500 rose 5.5%, the Nasdaq gained 2.6% and the Dow climbed 8.2%.

The S&P 500 extended losses following Powell’s remarks but recovered heading into the close. Strategists said quarter-end activity could have also helped the market late in the day.

“You’ve got momentum trading and classic window dressing at the end of the quarter, where you’re buying the winners and selling the losers,” Dollarhide said.

Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina, noted that the Fed will have much more data to review before its November meeting.

Key economic reports due this week include jobless claims and monthly payrolls.

CVS Health CVS.N rose 2.4% after a report showed hedge fund Glenview Capital Management will meet top executives at the healthcare company to propose ways to improve operations.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 1.06-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.00-to-1 ratio favored advancers.

The S&P 500 posted 30 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 88 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was 12.64 billion shares, compared with the 11.93 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Additional reporting by Johann M Cherian and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel, Richard Chang, and Andrea Ricci)

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