Gold dips to one-week low as US jobs data awaited

Gold prices fell to their lowest in more than a week on Monday as the US dollar firmed, while market focus shifted to a series of economic data due this week for clues as to the extent of rate cuts at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.

Spot gold fell about 0.1% to USD 2,501.20 per ounce, as of 9:37 a.m. ET (1337 GMT) after dipping to its lowest since Aug. 23 earlier in the session.

Trading is expected to be light with US markets closed for a holiday.

“To move higher from here we need to have more clarity on whether it will be a 25 (bps) rate cut or a 50 (bps) rate cut and probably by the end of the week, with the employment data, we might get more clarity on that side,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

US economic data pending this week includes the ISM surveys, JOLTS job openings, ADP employment and the non-farm payrolls report.

The markets broadly expect the Fed to cut rates at its Sept. 17-18 meeting, the first in this policy cycle.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors now see a 69% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and a 31% chance of a 50 bp cut in September. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

“With earnings season now largely completed and a Fed rate cut on Sept. 18 all-but guaranteed, investors appear content to remain long despite some recent firming of both short rates and the US dollar,” Mike Ingram, market analyst at Kinesis Money, said in a note.

“High levels of geopolitical risk and portfolio diversification remain as additional supports.”

The dollar hovered near a two-week peak hit earlier in the session, making bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Spot silver fell 1.2% to USD 28.51 per ounce, and hit its lowest in over two weeks.

Platinum rose 0.2% at USD 927.55 and palladium rose 0.8% at USD 973.25.

(Reporting by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; Editing by Kevin Liffey, Mrigank Dhaniwala, and Sharon Singleton)

Tech market values fall on AI costs and recession fears; Eli Lilly, Berkshire gain

Market values of major tech firms declined in August amid concerns over escalating artificial intelligence infrastructure costs and rising recession risks that would make the stocks particularly vulnerable during a market correction.

Last month, Alphabet Inc. lost 4.7% of its market value as a slowdown in YouTube’s advertising sales fuelled concerns about its earnings. A US judge’s ruling that Google had violated antitrust laws and the emergence of new competition from OpenAI, which is developing an AI-based search engine prototype, also contributed to its shares’ decline.

Amazon.com Inc’s market value fell 4.5%, affected by slowing online sales.

Tesla’s market capitalization fell 7.7% last month after weaker Q2 earnings and following the news that Canada planned a new 100% tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles.

The world’s most valuable automaker started shipping Shanghai-made EVs to Canada last year and Ottawa’s plans raised concerns about the potential profit impact of exporting from its higher-cost US production base.

Meanwhile, Nvidia’s market value fell in the last week of August by 7.7% to USD 2.92 trillion, after it projected third-quarter gross margins below market estimates and reported revenues that only met expectations, disappointing investors who were expecting a stronger performance.

Nvidia, which commands more than 80% of the AI chip market, stands in a unique position as both the largest enabler as well as the beneficiary of surging AI development.

On a positive note, US drugmaker Eli Lilly’s market value surged nearly 20%, leading market gainers, driven by robust sales and the launch of a weight-loss drug that significantly reduces the risk of developing type 2 diabetes in overweight adults.

Berkshire Hathaway’s market value closed above USD 1 trillion for the first time at the end of August, reflecting investor confidence in the conglomerate that Warren Buffett built over nearly six decades into what many consider a proxy for the US economy.

Meta’s market value also climbed nearly 10% after it beat market expectations for its second-quarter revenues and forecast strong revenue growth in the July-September quarter, indicating that strong digital ad spending on its platforms could offset the costs of its AI investments.

(Reporting By Patturaja Murugaboopathy and Gaurav Dogra in Bengaluru; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)

Oil edges higher as halted Libyan exports balance expected OPEC+ supply boost

Oil prices edged higher on Monday, recovering some losses from late last week, as Libyan oil exports remained halted and concerns about higher OPEC+ production from October eased.

US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 49 cents, or 0.7%, to USD 74.04 by 1924 GMT. Brent crude futures settled up 59 cents, or 0.8%, at USD 77.52 a barrel. Trading volumes were light as Monday marked a public holiday in the US market.

On Friday Brent and WTI lost 1.4% and 3.1%, respectively.

Oil exports at major Libyan ports were halted on Monday and production curtailed across the country, six engineers told Reuters, continuing a standoff between rival political factions over control of the central bank and oil revenue.

The country’s National Oil Corp. (NOC) also declared force majeure on El Feel oil field on Sept. 2.

“The current disturbances in Libya’s oil production could provide room for added supply from OPEC+. But these fluctuations have become quite normal over the last few years, meaning any outages will probably be short-lived; with the news flow indicating signals for a restart of production have already been given,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB.

Libya’s Arabian Gulf Oil Company resumed output of around 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) on Sunday, to feed a power plant at the port of Hariga.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, together known as OPEC+, is set to proceed with planned increases to oil output from October, six sources from the producer group told Reuters.

Eight OPEC+ members are scheduled to boost output by 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October as part of a plan to begin unwinding their most recent supply cuts of 2.2 million bpd while keeping other cuts in place until the end of 2025.

News of increased production helped push oil prices lower last week but the scale of the sell-off was overdone, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

“The market overreacted to how much supply is coming on and now it seems like the market has put that report into perspective,” Flynn said.

However, Brent and WTI have posted losses for two consecutive months as US and Chinese demand concerns have outweighed recent disruptions in Libya and supply risk related to conflict in the Middle East.

More pessimism about Chinese demand growth surfaced after an official survey showed on Saturday that manufacturing activity sank to a six-month low in August as factory gate prices tumbled and owners struggled for orders.

(Reporting by Nia Williams in British Columbia, Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru, and Florence Tan in Singapore; Editing by David Goodman, Jason Neely, and Aurora Ellis)

US stock rally broadens as investors await Fed

NEW YORK – A broadening rally in US stocks is offering an encouraging signal to investors worried about concentration in technology shares, as markets await key jobs data and the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cuts in September.

As the market’s fortunes keep rising and falling with big tech stocks such as Nvidia and Apple, investors are also putting money in less-loved value stocks and small caps, which are expected to benefit from lower interest rates. The Fed is expected to kick off a rate-cutting cycle at its monetary policy meeting on Sept. 17-18.

Many investors view the broadening trend, which picked up steam last month before faltering during an early August sell-off, as a healthy development in a market rally led by a cluster of giant tech names. Chipmaker Nvidia, which has benefited from bets on artificial intelligence, alone has accounted for roughly a quarter of the S&P 500’s year-to-date gain of 18.4%.

“No matter how you slice and dice it you have seen a pretty meaningful broadening out and I think that has legs,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment officer at Charles Schwab.

Value stocks are those of companies trading at a discount on metrics like book value or price-to-earnings and include sectors such as financials and industrials. Some investors believe rallies in these sectors and small caps could go further if the Fed cuts borrowing costs while the economy stays healthy.

The market’s rotation has recently accelerated, with 61% of stocks in the S&P 500 outperforming the index in the past month, compared to 14% outperforming over the past year, Charles Schwab data showed.

Meanwhile, the so-called Magnificent Seven group of tech giants – which includes Nvidia, Tesla and Microsoft – have underperformed the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 by 14 percentage points since the release of a weaker-than-expected US inflation report on July 11, according to an analysis by BofA Global Research.

Stocks have also held up after an Nvidia forecast failed to meet lofty investor expectations earlier this week, another sign that investors may be looking beyond tech. The equal weight S&P 500 index, a proxy for the average stock, hit a fresh record this week and is up around 10.5% year-to-date, narrowing its performance gap with the S&P 500.

“When market breadth is improving, the message is that an increasing number of stocks are rallying on expectations that economic conditions will support earnings growth and profitability,” analysts at Ned David Research wrote.

Value stocks that have performed well this year include General Electric and midstream energy company Targa Resources, which are up 70% and 68%, respectively. The small-cap-focused Russell 2000 index, meanwhile, is up 8.5% from its lows of the month, though it has not breached its July peak.

Next Friday’s non-farm payrolls report could help bolster the case for a broader market rally if it shows the labor market is cooling at a steady, though not alarming pace, said David Lefkowitz, head of US Equities for UBS Global Wealth Management.

The jobs report “tends to be one of the more market-moving releases in general, and right now it’s going to get even more attention than normal.”

Investors are unlikely to turn their back on tech stocks, particularly if volatility gives them a chance to buy on the cheap, said Jason Alonzo, a portfolio manager with Harbor Capital.

Technology stocks are expected to post above-market earnings growth over every quarter through 2025, with third-quarter earnings coming in at 15.3% compared with a 7.5% gain for the S&P 500 as a whole, according to LSEG data.

“People will sometimes take a deep breath after a nice run and look at other opportunities, but technology is still the clearest driver of growth, particularly the AI theme which is innocent until proven guilty,” Alonzo said.

(Reporting by David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Richard Chang)

US Treasury yields rise as inflation data points to smaller rate cut

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields advanced on Friday, with the benchmark 10-year note set to snap a two-week streak of declines, after economic data raised expectations the Federal Reserve was likely to opt for a small rate cut at its September meeting.

The Commerce Department said the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% last month, matching expectations of economists polled by Reuters, after an unrevised 0.1% gain in June. In the 12 months through July, the PCE price index increased 2.5%, matching June’s gain.

“Income and spending were a little better than expected while inflation was in line with expectations. This can reinforce the idea that the Fed has stuck the landing,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, rose 0.5% last month, also meeting expectations, after advancing by an unrevised 0.3% in June to show a strong economy early in the third quarter.

“The market’s focus is shifting more towards jobs and labor rather than inflation. It feels like the market’s pretty well convinced that inflation is moving in the right direction,” said Thomas Urano, co-chief investment officer at Sage Advisory in Austin, Texas.

“As long as it continues to move in that direction, then the focus is going to be on growth and in the job market.”

The US 10-year Treasury note yield rose 3.8 basis points to 3.905%, on track for its fifth straight daily gain and first weekly rise in three. However, the yield was still on course for the fourth straight monthly decline.

Markets are fully pricing in a rate cut of at least 25 basis points at the Fed’s mid-September meeting. Expectations for a 50 basis point cut dipped to 30.5% after the data, however, from 34% on Thursday, CME’s FedWatch Tool showed.

The 30-year bond yield climbed 4.4 basis points to 4.196%. The yield was set to snap a two-week streak of declines but was also poised for a fourth straight monthly drop.

Fed Chair Powell last week flagged the cooling in the labor market, which signaled a shift in the Fed’s focus on the job market over fighting inflation.

A survey from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment edged up to 67.9 in August from July’s eight-month low of 66.4, snapping a four-month slide, while inflation is expected to continue to moderate.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a negative 2 basis points.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 3.2 basis points to 3.925%. The yield was barely higher on the week but set for a fourth consecutive monthly decline.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.046% after closing at 2.057% on Aug. 29.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.154%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.2% a year for the next decade.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; editing by Barbara Lewis and Richard Chang)

Gold drops as dollar, yields firm after US inflation report

Gold slipped 1% on Friday as the dollar and Treasury yields firmed after US inflation data matched expectations, but the bullion is set for a monthly gain as a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve remains in play.

Spot gold fell 0.9% to USD 2,497.53 per ounce as of 01:42 p.m. ET (1742 GMT) and US gold futures settled 1.3% lower at USD 2,527.6.

Bullion gained 2% this month after prices rallied to an all-time high of USD 2,531.60 on Aug. 20.

Data earlier in the day from the Commerce Department showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% last month, matching economists’ forecasts.

The PCE data confirms inflation is no longer the Fed’s main concern, as they have shifted their focus to unemployment, which further validates the potential rate cuts in September, said Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer at Allegiance Gold.

Investors now look ahead to the US non-farm payroll report due next week.

“Next week will solidify whether or not we have a 50- or 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the September meeting,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.

Traders slightly raised bets of a 25-basis-point rate reduction by the Fed next month to 69%, with a 50-bps cut possibility coming down to 31% following the inflation report, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Physical demand remained lackluster is top Asian consumers as new import quotas failed to lift Chinese demand.

“Systematic trend followers are effectively max-long. We also think that Shanghai positioning is near its record highs. That is despite the fact that physical demand in China has been fairly weak and inflows from Chinese gold ETFs as well,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Downside risks are significantly more elevated in the near term, given the fact that positioning looks extremely stretched, Ghali said.

Spot silver eased 2.2% to USD 28.78 per ounce and platinum fell 1.2% to USD 926.65. Both the metals registered monthly losses.

Palladium retreated 1.7% to USD 963.34, but posted a 4.3% monthly gain.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri and Shreya Biswas)

Oil settles USD 1 down as supply set to rise, uncertainty around Fed rate cuts

HOUSTON – Oil prices retreated on Friday as investors weighed expectations of a rise in OPEC+ supply starting in October, alongside dwindling hopes of a hefty US interest rate cut next month, following data showing strong consumer spending.

Brent crude futures for October delivery, which expire on Friday, settled USD 1.14 lower, or 1.43%, at USD 78.80 a barrel, marking a decline of 0.3% for the week and 2.4% for the month.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down USD 2.36, or 3.11%, to USD 73.55, a drop of 1.7% in the week and a 3.6% decline in August.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, is set to proceed with a planned oil output hike from October, as the Libyan outages and pledged cuts by some members to compensate for overproduction counter the impact of sluggish demand, six sources from the producer group told Reuters.

“OPEC+ talking about going ahead with tapering off production cuts was the headline that really sunk us today,” said Phil Flynn, analyst with Price Futures Group.

Meanwhile, investors responded to new data that showed US consumer spending increased solidly in July, suggesting the economy remained on firmer ground early in the third quarter and arguing against a half-percentage-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month.

Lower rates can boost economic growth and demand for oil.

“That modest inflation increase could basically solidify that we will only get a quarter-percentage-point cut and those hoping for a half will have to wait,” said Price Futures Group’s Flynn.

Elsewhere, Libya’s National Oil Corporation said recent oilfield closures have caused the loss of approximately 63% of the country’s total oil production, as a conflict between rival eastern and western factions continues.

Production losses could reach between 900,000 and 1 million barrels per day (bpd) and last for several weeks, according to consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group.

Libya’s eastern-based government announced the closure of all oil fields on Monday, halting production and exports and driving oil to settle at a near-two week high on Aug. 26.

“It is interesting to see the shutdown of Libya’s crude oil production have such an impact on market prices one day and completely ignored the next,” said Tim Snyder, chief economist at Matador Economics.

“It looks to me right now there is a lot of negative inertia in the market pulling prices down,” Snyder added.

Iraqi supplies are also expected to shrink after the country’s output surpassed its OPEC+ quota, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Thursday.

Iraq plans to reduce its oil output to between 3.85 million and 3.9 million bpd next month.

In the US, the number of active oil rigs was unchanged at 483 this week, but rose by one in August, Baker Hughes said.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, Alex Lawler in London, Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru, Emily Chow in Singapore, and Georgina McCartney in Houston; Editing by Marguerita Choy, Deepa Babington, and Jonathan Oatis)

RPT-Wall St Week Ahead-U.S. stock rally broadens as investors await Fed

Repeats with no changes to text

By David Randall

NEW YORK, Aug 30 (Reuters) –
A broadening rally in U.S. stocks is offering an encouraging signal to investors worried about concentration in technology shares, as markets await key jobs data and the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cuts in September.

As the market’s fortunes keep rising and falling with big tech stocks such as Nvidia NVDA.O and Apple AAPL.O, investors are also putting money in less-loved value stocks and small caps, which are expected to benefit from lower interest rates. The Fed is expected to kick off a rate-cutting cycle at its monetary policy meeting on Sept. 17-18.

“No matter how you slice and dice it you have seen a pretty meaningful broadening out and I think that has legs,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment officer at Charles Schwab.

The market’s rotation has recently accelerated, with 61% of stocks in the S&P 500 .SPX outperforming the index in the past month, compared to 14% outperforming over the past year, Charles Schwab data showed.

Meanwhile, the so-called Magnificent Seven group of tech giants – which includes Nvidia, Tesla TSLA.O and Microsoft MSFT.O – have underperformed the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 by 14 percentage points since the release of a weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation report on July 11, according to an analysis by BofA Global Research.

Value stocks that have performed well this year include General Electric GE.N and midstream energy company Targa Resources TRGP.N, which are up 70% and 68%, respectively. The small-cap focused Russell 2000 index, meanwhile, is up 8.5% from its lows of the month, though it has not breached its July peak.

The jobs report “tends to be one of the more market moving releases in general, and right now it’s going to get even more attention than normal.”

Investors are unlikely to turn their back on tech stocks, particularly if volatility gives them a chance to buy on the cheap, said Jason Alonzo, a portfolio manager with Harbor Capital.

text_section_type=”notes”>Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. For the daily stock market report, please click .N

(Reporting by David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Richard Chang)

((David.Randall@thomsonreuters.com; 646-223-6607; Reuters Messaging: david.randall.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))

Data deluge closes out rollercoaster month

Financial market trading in many Asian countries could be choppy on Friday, with investors hoping to close out a remarkable month on a high but facing an economic calendar bursting at the seams with top-tier releases.

Wall Street put in mixed performance on Thursday as investors digested Nvidia’s results from the day before which pushed the Nasdaq into the red, and surprisingly strong US GDP data that helped lift the Dow to a record high.

But the moves in stocks, rates, and yields were modest, and investors in Asia may plow their own furrow on Friday. They will certainly have plenty of potential drivers.

The economic calendar includes second quarter GDP from India, retail sales and industrial production from South Korea, retail sales and private sector credit growth from Australia, current account data from Thailand, and retail sales from Hong Kong.

There is also a data deluge from Japan, which includes retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, and perhaps most important of all, Tokyo inflation figures for August.

On the corporate front, earnings releases from Chinese financial giants Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, CITIC and China Construction Bank are also on tap.

It is worth noting where markets stand going into the last trading day of August. Especially bearing in mind the historic volatility and price swings that battered many markets earlier this month.

Japan’s Nikkei is down around 2% so far this month, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan is up 1.5%, world stocks and the S&P 500 are up more than 1%, the Nasdaq is flat, and China’s blue chip index is down nearly 5%.

The dollar index is down 2.6% and languishing at its weakest level of the year, although it has risen for two days in a row, while the yen is up around 3.7% and China’s yuan is up around 1.5%.

On the data front, annual consumer price inflation in Tokyo is expected to stay unchanged at 2.2% in August, ending three months of acceleration, according to a Reuters poll. Would this suggest the Bank of Japan may not be in such a hurry to raise rates again?

On the other hand, the same poll also found factory output rose and retail sales kept growing in July, underscoring the strength of Japan’s economy after better-than-expected April-June gross domestic product figures earlier this month.

India’s economic growth, meanwhile, likely moderated and grew at its slowest pace in a year in the April-June quarter due to lower government spending amid a national election that concluded in June, a Reuters poll found.

Annual growth likely slowed to 6.9% in the quarter, down from 7.8% in the January-March period, the poll showed. The range of forecasts was wide – from 6.0% to 8.1%.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Friday:

– Japan – Tokyo inflation (August)

– India – GDP (Q2)

– Australia – retail sales (July)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever)

Dow closes at record high, Nvidia falls after forecast

The Dow notched a record high close on Thursday in mixed trading following robust US economic data, while artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia dropped after its largely in-line forecast failed to impress investors.

The US economy grew faster than initial estimates due to strong consumer spending, the Commerce Department reported, supporting expectations the US is likely to avoid a recession.

“Downward revisions to inflation accompanying an upward revision to spending builds the case for a soft landing,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial.

Nvidia’s quarterly revenue forecast late on Wednesday disappointed investors accustomed to the chipmaker beating expectations by massive margins in recent quarters.

Nvidia’s stock fell over 6%, trimming its 2024 gain to 137%.

Other AI-related stocks were mixed. Microsoft gained 0.6%, while Google-owner Alphabet dipped 0.7%.

Broadcom and Advanced Micro Devices each slid almost 1%.

“It’s too early to put the bear suit on for AI related companies. We think there’s still more upside,” said Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at US Bank Wealth Management. “We see the AI revolution still in the relatively early innings and that bodes well for tech names.”

Apple rose 1.5% after Citigroup named the iPhone maker its top AI pick.

Apple and Nvidia are in talks to invest in OpenAI as part of a new fundraising round that could value the ChatGPT maker above USD 100 billion, according to media reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.59% to 41,335.05 points, an all-time closing high. The S&P 500 index ended barely changed at 5,591.96 points, just below its July record high close as expectations for a September interest rate cut remained robust.

The Nasdaq declined 0.23% to 17,516.43 points.

A Labor Department report showed marginally lower-than-expected jobless claims for the previous week.

The July Personal Consumption Expenditures report, due on Friday, could offer hints on the central bank’s monetary policy easing trajectory.

CrowdStrike gained 2.8% after the cybersecurity company beat quarterly revenue estimates, while Dollar General slumped 32% after slashing its annual sales and profit forecasts.

Advancing issues outnumbered falling ones within the S&P 500 by a 2.1-to-one ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 68 new highs and four new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 91 new highs and 90 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was relatively light, with 10.5 billion shares traded, compared to an average of 11.6 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions.

(Reporting by Purvi Agarwal and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja Desai, Shounak Dasgupta, Shinjini Ganguli, and Richard Chang)

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