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Archives: Reuters Articles

Oil settles near 3-year low on weak demand outlook

Oil settles near 3-year low on weak demand outlook

HOUSTON – Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures settled at their lowest level since December 2021 on Tuesday, after OPEC+ revised down its demand forecast for this year and 2025, offsetting supply concerns from Tropical Storm Francine.

Brent crude futures settled down USD 2.65, or 3.69%, at USD 69.19 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled down USD 2.96, or 4.31%, to USD 65.75 a barrel.

Both benchmarks dropped by more than USD 3 during the session, after each rose by about 1% on Monday. WTI crude futures fell more than 5% on Tuesday, hitting their lowest levels since May 2023.

On Tuesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in a monthly report said world oil demand would rise by 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from last month’s forecast for growth of 2.11 million bpd.

Until last month, OPEC had kept the forecast unchanged since it was first made in July 2023.

OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.74 million bpd from 1.78 million bpd. Prices slid on the weakening global demand prospects and expectations of oil oversupply.

Separately, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday said global oil demand is set to grow to a bigger record this year while output growth will be smaller than prior forecasts.

Global oil demand is expected to average around 103.1 million barrels per day this year, the EIA said, some 200,000 bpd higher than its previous forecast of 102.9 million bpd.

Oil prices remained depressed after the EIA forecast release, as concerns about China continued to weigh on prices.

Data released on Tuesday showed China’s exports grew in August at their fastest in nearly 1-1/2 years, but imports disappointed with domestic demand depressed.

Meanwhile, Asian refiners’ margins fell to their lowest seasonal level since 2020 last week on rising supplies of diesel and gasoline.

“There’s almost no oil demand growth in the advanced economies this year. Fiscal stimulus in China has not boosted the construction sector; that’s one big reason Chinese demand for diesel is shrinking,” said Clay Seigle, an oil market strategist.

Investors are increasingly pricing in a slowing global economy, according to Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group.

Energy stocks were the biggest loser among the S&P 500 sectors on Tuesday. Hess, Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, Halliburton, SLB, Ovintiv, Devon Energy, all set new intraday 52-week lows on Tuesday.

STORM HITS US OUTPUT

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Francine barrelled across the Gulf of Mexico driving operators to shut in around a quarter of offshore crude production, the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said on Tuesday.

The US Gulf of Mexico accounts for about 15% of all domestic oil production and 2% of natural gas output, according to federal data.

The storm was on track to become a hurricane on Tuesday, the US National Hurricane Center said.

Exxon Mobil, Shell, and Chevron have removed offshore staff and halted some Gulf of Mexico oil and gas operations.

So far, production shut-ins have failed to offset weak demand sentiment and support prices, analysts said.

Meanwhile, US crude oil and gasoline inventories fell while distillates rose last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

The API figures showed crude stocks fell by 2.793 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 6, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories fell by 513,000 barrels, and distillates rose by 191,000 barrels.

Investors await weekly oil stock data from the EIA, published at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, Ahmad Ghaddar in London; Additional reporting by Katya Golubkova in Tokyo, Florence Tan in Singapore, and Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Nick Zieminski, and Matthew Lewis)

 

Disinflation dynamics deepen

Disinflation dynamics deepen

The slide in oil and commodity prices is garnering more attention as investors await Wednesday’s US consumer price inflation figures, the last major economic data point before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week.

The question for investors is whether this should be taken as a positive ‘risk on’ signal, or not?

If disinflationary dynamics push US inflation lower then the Fed may cut interest rates more than it had planned, weighing on Treasury yields and the dollar, and giving a boost to Asian and emerging market assets.

But if they reflect weakening global demand and economic activity then investors will be far less inclined to put their money in riskier markets.

Given that these developments have coincided with yet another round of gloomy growth and inflation signals from China, caution may be the order of the day.

Figures on Tuesday showed that year-on-year import growth in China collapsed to just 0.5% in August, casting a cloud over brighter news that exports grew at their fastest pace in a year and a half.

Brent crude oil sank 3.7% and US futures lost 4.3% on Tuesday, clocking their lowest daily close since December 2021. Both are now down more than 25% on the same period a year ago, and US gasoline prices are 30% cheaper than they were a year ago.

This signals a significant acceleration in disinflationary dynamics that, all else equal, are bound to put downward pressure on next year’s inflation readings.

Could inflation be on course to undershoot the Fed’s 2% target soon?

It’s worth remembering that the Fed in June raised its median inflation projections for this year and next to 2.8% and 2.3%, respectively. It may well be forced to revise them back down again next week.

Asian markets will get the chance to react to the US inflation data on Thursday. The trading day on Wednesday is shaping up to be reasonably calm and positive after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose for a second day, the first time either has done that since mid-August.

The Asian calendar is light, with a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Sarah Hunter one of the few highlights.

The RBA’s next policy meeting is Sept. 23-24, a week after the Fed. Given the persistently hawkish tone from RBA officials, it’s no surprise that money markets have the RBA down as one of the most cautious G10 central banks regarding rate cuts.

Aussie swaps markets are still not fully pricing in a quarter-point rate cut this year, and the two-year US/Australian yield spread is the narrowest in more than two years at only 7 basis points.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Wednesday:
– RBA’s Sarah Hunter speaks

– South Korea unemployment (August)

– US Presidential debate (Tuesday)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever)

 

Oil steady as supply disruptions from Storm Francine offset weak demand

Oil steady as supply disruptions from Storm Francine offset weak demand

Oil was steady in early trade on Tuesday as investors weighed supply disruptions from Tropical Storm Francine and the potential for further output cuts against persistently weak Chinese demand.

Brent crude futures rose 16 cents, or 0.22%, to USD 72.00 a barrel by 0004 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 12 cents, or 0.17%, to USD 68.83 a barrel.

Both benchmarks gained around 1% at Monday’s settlement.

The US Coast Guard ordered the closure of all operations at Brownsville and other small Texas ports on Monday evening, as Tropical Storm Francine barrelled across the Gulf.

The port of Corpus Christi remained open but with restrictions.

The tropical storm is forecast to strengthen significantly over the next couple of days, and was expected to become a hurricane on Monday night or Tuesday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Exxon Mobil said it shut-in output at its Hoover offshore production platform, while Shell paused drilling operations at two platforms. Chevron also began shutting in oil and gas output, at two of its offshore production platforms.

“At least 125,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil capacity is at risk of being disrupted,” ANZ analysts said in a note, citing data from the NHC.

Elsewhere, global commodity traders Gunvor and Trafigura anticipate oil prices may range between USD 60 and USD 70 per barrel on wakened Chinese demand and persistent global oversupply, executives told Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) attendees on Monday.

China’s shift towards lower-carbon fuels and a sluggish economy are dampening oil demand growth in the world’s largest crude importer, APPEC conference speakers said.

China’s annual demand growth has slowed from around 500,000-600,000 bpd in the five years before the COVID-19 pandemic to 200,000 bpd now, said Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs.

Refining margins in Asia have slipped to their lowest seasonal levels since 2020.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

 

Gold prices steady with spotlight on US inflation data

Gold prices steady with spotlight on US inflation data

Gold prices held their ground on Monday, as investors awaited the US inflation report for further clues on the potential size of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut.

Spot gold was little changed at USD 2,499.79 per ounce by 1:54 p.m. ET (1754 GMT).

US gold futures settled 0.3% higher at USD 2,532.70.

Bullion “will probably be fairly consolidated, perhaps a little bit choppy in the established range in gold,” said Peter A. Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, who expects gold to hit all-time highs.

Bullion hit a record high of USD 2,531.60 on Aug. 20.

Traders now see a 73% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s meeting next week, and a 27% chance of a 50 bp reduction, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

“The market seems to be reconciling that the Fed is probably more likely to do the smaller 25-basis-point cut and that’s been my position all along,” Grant added.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the zero-yield bullion.

Last week, a report showed US employment increased less than expected in August, but a drop in the jobless rate to 4.2% suggested the labour market was not falling off a cliff to warrant a half-point cut.

Investors will now watch out for August US consumer price data on Wednesday and the producer price index on Thursday.

“If inflation numbers come much lower than expected and raise hopes for a 50-bp cut, then gold could hit all-time highs. But even if the consensus stays for a 25-bp cut, gold wouldn’t see a dramatic loss in prices as the Fed is definitely cutting rates,” Kinesis Money market analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa said.

The US public’s outlook for inflationary pressures was little changed last month, according to a report released on Monday by the New York Federal Reserve.

Spot silver rose 1.2% to USD 28.26 per ounce, platinum gained 2.3% to USD 942.45 and palladium was up more than 3% at USD 945.72.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Krishna Chandra Eluri, and Shreya Biswas)

 

US yields mixed after bond rally as first rate cut size uncertain

US yields mixed after bond rally as first rate cut size uncertain

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields were mixed on Monday, with some profit-taking after last week’s bond rally driven by a weakening labor market that has left the market wondering how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month.

Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, touched a more than one-year low on Friday after data showing US employers added far fewer workers than expected in August and July. This cemented prospects that the US central bank will start cutting rates at its Sept. 17-18 meeting.

Those gains were partly reversed on Monday, as short-dated yields inched higher.

“The reality set in that the market moved a little too much to lower yields on Friday and so there was a decent window to sell paper at richer levels,” said Tom di Galoma, head of fixed income trading at Curvature Securities.

Investors were also selling ahead of this week’s Treasury auctions of three-, 10- and 30-year paper, as well as on expectations of heavy corporate debt supply as issuers try to take advantage of lower yields, he added.

Rates traders on Monday were assigning a 71% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed next week, and a 29% probability of a 50 basis point cut, CME Group data showed.

Uncertainty over the magnitude of the first rate cut could cause some volatility in Treasuries for the rest of the week, with investors looking at consumer price data on Wednesday for more clarity over the pace of disinflation in the economy.

A report released by the New York Federal Reserve on Monday showed the US public’s outlook for inflationary pressures was little changed last month as price pressures continued to retreat.

“There’s a lot of consensus that the Fed is going to cut substantially,” said Campe Goodman, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Wellington Management. “I think the debate is less about how much and more about whether they are going to do it sooner or later.”

The US presidential debate between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump on Tuesday could also cause some price fluctuations in the bond market, investors said.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields edged down to 3.699%, while two-year yields crept higher to 3.669%.

The closely watched part of the Treasury yield curve comparing two- and 10-year yields stood at about three basis points, flatter than on Friday, when the spread of 10-year over two-year yields was the largest since July 2022.

(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Richard Chang)

 

China trade could disrupt market calm

China trade could disrupt market calm

The volatility that scarred global markets last week is giving way to a greater degree of calm early this week, and traders go into Tuesday’s session in Asia looking to claw back some recent losses before assessing their next move.

Although risk appetite rebounded and volatility sank back notably on Monday, there was little change in US interest rate futures’ pricing of the Fed’s expected easing path – still nearly 250 basis points of rate cuts by the end of next year, reflecting significant concerns over the growth outlook.

But with US inflation figures due out on Wednesday, investors may be reluctant to push too hard in either direction over the next 36 hours. Asian markets on Tuesday could take their cue from local drivers.

Economic data releases include Malaysian industrial output, Indonesian retail sales, and Australia consumer sentiment and business confidence, while the yen’s upward momentum has stalled and a move back below 143.00 per dollar now looms.

The most important trigger for markets in Asian hours on Tuesday could be Chinese trade data for August, and the bar of expectation has been set low.

Exports likely rose 6.5% year-on-year by value, down from July’s 7.0% growth and the slowest pace in four months, while imports are expected to have grown just 2%, compared with 7.2% in July, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

Weakening export activity amid fears of mounting trade barriers and tariffs would be alarming in itself, but tepid import growth also reflects weak domestic demand. Together, they speak to an economy struggling to generate solid, sustainable growth.

Then there’s the cloud of deflation that refuses to lift.

Figures on Monday showed that consumer inflation ticked up in August to the fastest pace in six months, but the rise was due more to higher food costs from weather disruptions than a recovery in domestic demand. The 0.6% annual rate was still lower than forecasts.

More worrying, producer price deflation intensified. The producer price index in August slid 1.8% from a year earlier, the largest fall in four months, worse than July’s 0.8% decline and below economists’ consensus forecast of a 1.4% fall.

Factory gate prices have been in outright deflation for two years, a key reason why consumer price inflation is unlikely to accelerate much any time soon.

Meanwhile, Taiwan’s TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, will announce its monthly sales figures for August. Sales in June totaled T$207.87 billion, and rose to T$256.95 billion in July.

Taiwan firms like TSMC are major supplier to Apple AAPL.O, Nvidia NVDA.O and other tech giants. Their growth helped drive Taiwan’s August exports to an all-time monthly high of nearly $44 billion, as growing demand for chips to supply the AI industry offset anemic demand from China.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Tuesday:
– China trade (August)
– TSMC sales figures (August)
– Australia consumer confidence (September)

 (Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Bill Berkrot)

 

Dollar rises after August US payrolls report paints mixed picture

Dollar rises after August US payrolls report paints mixed picture

NEW YORK – The dollar rose in volatile trading on Friday after data showed US employment grew less than expected in August, but indicated only a steady slowdown in the labor market, likely supporting gradual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 142,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 89,000 rise in July, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing by 160,000 jobs after a previously reported 114,000 gain in July.

The dollar, which initially fell against most major peers after the release of the jobs data, soon recovered ground to trade higher. The US currency, a traditional safe haven, also found support as stocks and other risky assets sold off on Friday.

The euro was 0.3% lower against the dollar at USD1.108225, jumping as high as USD1.1155 right after the release of the payrolls report. The Dollar Index, which measures the US currency’s strength against six major peers, was up 0.2% at 101.21.

“I think the market’s really struggling with this one because it’s really in the middle of what could be used as a justification for either a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut,” Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities, said.

Traders now see a 31% chance that the Fed will cut its policy rate, now in the 5.25% to 5.50% range, to a 4.75% to 5% range at its upcoming meeting on Sept 17-18, according to LSEG data. Before the report they had seen about a 43% chance of that outcome, favoring instead a quarter-point reduction.

“The US economy looks more likely to gouge the runway in the months ahead, justifying an increasingly aggressive response from officials at the Federal Reserve,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at payments company Corpay in Toronto.

“A half-point rate cut at the central bank’s September meeting remains unlikely, but today’s release provided clear evidence of a sharp deterioration in labor market fundamentals, and will bolster bets on at least one jumbo-sized rate cut in the coming months,” he said.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar fell 0.7% to 142.42 yen, on pace for a fourth straight session of losses.

Safe haven demand and expectations for imminent rate hikes from the Bank of Japan have helped support the Japanese currency in recent sessions.

Traders have sold the dollar against other currencies fairly consistently over the last couple of months, as concern has risen that a slowing US economy will require chunky rate cuts.

Federal Reserve policymakers on Friday hinted they are ready to kick off a series of interest rate cuts at the US central bank’s meeting in two weeks, noting a cooling in the labor market that could accelerate into something more dire in the absence of a policy shift.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank’s focus was shifting from fighting inflation to preventing deterioration in the job market when he strongly endorsed an imminent start to the monetary easing cycle at the annual economic conference in Jackson Hole last month.

The pound was about 0.4% lower at USD1.3131.

The Bank of England meets in two weeks to set monetary policy. Right now, the derivatives market shows traders see very little chance of a rate cut this month, but a quarter-point cut is fully priced in for November.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell about 4% to a fresh 1-month low of USD53,600, as investors avoided riskier assets.

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Additional reporting by Karen Brettell and Kevin Buckland; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill, Andrew Heavens, Mark Heinrich, Jonathan Oatis, and Diane Craft)

 

Economic worries back on Wall Street’s radar after jobs data

Economic worries back on Wall Street’s radar after jobs data

NEW YORK – Uncertainty over the US economy’s health is rippling through markets, adding fuel to an already-volatile period that has investors grappling with a shift in Federal Reserve policy, a tight US election, and worries over stretched valuations.

US stocks tumbled on Friday after closely watched jobs data showed labor market momentum slowing more than expected, suggesting a narrower path for the US to achieve a soft landing, in which the Fed is able to cool inflation without badly damaging economic growth.

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates at its Sept. 17-18 meeting, but the data revived fears that months of elevated borrowing costs have already started to pressure the economy. That is a potentially unwelcome development for investors, after prospects for rate cuts against a background of resilient growth helped drive the S&P 500 to record highs this year.

“The data shows that we remain on the soft-landing path, but clearly there’s more downside risks to which the markets are going to be sensitive,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones. “The expectation for elevated volatility is a realistic one.”

Evidence of ebbing risk appetite showed up across markets. The S&P 500 dropped 1.7%, with major declines in technology and growth stocks, among the market’s biggest winners this year. Nvidia NVDA.O, the poster child of this year’s artificial intelligence excitement, was recently down over 4% and fell to its lowest level in about a month.

Meanwhile, the Cboe Market Volatility index, also called Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” hit its highest level in nearly a month on Friday.

Several factors threaten to compound the market’s uncertainty. Though futures bets on how much the Fed will cut rates later this month showed investors pricing in a nearly 75% chance of a 25 basis point reduction, the issue remains far from settled.

“Markets have had to grapple with – just as the Fed is doing – whether the August payroll data reflects a labor market normalizing towards pre-COVID levels or whether it’s indicative of an economy losing dangerous momentum,” Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial, said in written commentary.

Others took a dimmer view. Citi analysts said the report warranted a 50 basis point cut later this month.

“The takeaway from the range of labor market data is clear – the job market is cooling in a classic pattern that precedes recession,” analysts at Citi wrote.

Inflation data next week could shed further light on the strength of the economy and help solidify bets on how much the Fed might cut rates.

Valuation concerns are also reemerging. The S&P 500, which is up over 13% this year, is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 21 times expected forward 12-month earnings estimates as of Thursday, well above its historical average of 15.7, according to LSEG Datastream.

Despite a recent swoon, the S&P 500 technology sector – by far the biggest group in the index – is trading at over 28 times expected earnings, compared to its long-term average of 21.2.

“We’ve come a long way in a relatively short period of time and I think you’re starting to see some businesses do the math on AI and ask whether it’s really worth the cost, which will weigh on the big tech stocks,” said Mark Travis, a portfolio manager at Intrepid Capital Management.

Investors are also closely watching a tight US presidential election which is starting to head into the home stretch. The race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump could draw more investor focus on Tuesday, when the two candidates debate for the first time ahead of the Nov. 5 vote.

So far, the market gyrations have bolstered September’s reputation as a tough time for investors. The S&P 500 has fallen an average of nearly 0.8% in September since 1945, making it the worst month for stocks, CFRA data showed. The index is already down 4% since the month began.

“Investors are saying let’s hope we can have a soft landing,” said Burns McKinney, senior portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group. “It still feels like it’s fairly likely, but with each weaker jobs number it’s becoming less and less the base case.”

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Richard Chang)

 

US equity funds see major outflows on growth concerns

US equity funds see major outflows on growth concerns

US equity funds experienced their largest weekly outflow in 12 weeks by Sept. 4, driven by heightened investor anxiety about the economic outlook as they awaited crucial labor market data.

According to LSEG data, investors disposed of a net USD 11.73 billion worth of US equity funds during the week, registering a fourth weekly outflow in five weeks.

A lackluster US manufacturing report on Tuesday reignited investor concerns about economic growth, ahead of the crucial non-farm payrolls report due at 8:30 a.m. ET (1230 GMT). This upcoming report could provide further insights into the economic situation and influence the potential magnitude of an interest rate cut this month.

By segment, US large-cap funds observed a weekly net sale of USD 4.28 billion, the biggest in three weeks. Small-cap, mid-cap and multi-cap funds also posted outflows, valued at USD 1.77 billion, USD 1.34 billion and USD 667 million, respectively.

The technology sector faced about USD 879 million worth of net sales, the biggest weekly outflow in six weeks. Investors, meanwhile, bought financial sector funds for the fourth successive week, worth about USD 418 million.

Investors, meanwhile, funneled a net USD 45.81 billion worth of investments into the safety of US money market funds, extending their purchases into a fifth consecutive week.

US bond funds, meanwhile, attracted inflows for the 14th week in a row, recorded at USD 2.23 billion on a net basis.

US short-to-intermediate investment-grade, general domestic taxable fixed income, and municipal debt funds saw significant purchases, worth about USD 3.28 billion, USD 2.03 billion, and USD 963 million, respectively.

Short-to-intermediate government & treasury funds, meanwhile, witnessed about USD 5.53 billion worth of net selling, reversing a net USD 4.84 billion worth of inflow in the prior week.

(Reporting by Gaurav Dogra and Patturaja Murugaboopathy in Bengaluru; Editing by David Evans)

 

Oil settles down 2%, big weekly drop after US jobs data

Oil settles down 2%, big weekly drop after US jobs data

NEW YORK – Oil prices settled 2% lower on Friday, with a big weekly loss after data US jobs data was weaker than expected in August, which outweighed price support from a delay to supply increases by OPEC+ producers.

Brent crude futures were down USD 1.63, or 2.24%, to USD 71.06 a barrel, their lowest level since Dec. 2021. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell USD 1.48, or 2.14%, to USD 67.67, their lowest since June 2023.

For the week, Brent declined 10%, while WTI dropped around 8%.

US government data showed employment increased less than expected in August, but a drop in the jobless rate to 4.2% suggested an orderly labor market slowdown that may not warrant a big interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this month.

“The jobs report was a little soft and implied that the economy in the US is on the slide,” Bob Yawger, executive director of energy futures at Mizuho.

Concerns around Chinese demand also kept pressuring oil prices, Yawger said.

On Thursday, Brent settled at its lowest since June 2023 despite a withdrawal from US oil inventories and a decision by OPEC+ to delay planned oil output increases.

US crude stockpiles fell by 6.9 million barrels to 418.3 million barrels last week, compared with a projected decline of 993,000 barrels in a Reuters poll of analysts.

Signals that Libya’s rival factions could be closer to an agreement to end the dispute that has halted the country’s crude exports also pressured oil prices this week. Exports remained mostly shut in but some loadings have been permitted from storage.

Bank of America lowered its Brent price forecast for the second half of 2024 to USD 75 a barrel from almost USD 90 previously, it said in a note on Friday, citing building global inventories, weaker demand growth, and OPEC+ spare production capacity.

The US active oil rig count, an early indicator of future output, remained unchanged at 483 this week, energy services firm Baker Hughes BKR.O reported on Friday.

Money managers cut their net long US crude futures and options positions in the week to Sept. 3, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.

(Reporting by Nicole Jao in New York, Robert Harvey in London and Colleen Howe in Beijing; Editing by David Goodman, Jason Neely, Sharon Singleton, Paul Simao, Alexander Smith, and David Gregorio)

 

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