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Archives: Reuters Articles

Gold slips, but set for weekly rise on potential US Fed rate cut

Gold slips, but set for weekly rise on potential US Fed rate cut

Gold prices fell on Friday after bullion hit a more than five-week high in the previous session and as the US dollar gained, but prices were on track for a weekly rise on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this week.

Spot gold was down 1.1% at USD 2,652.29 per ounce at 01:43 p.m. ET (1843 GMT), as the US dollar was steady at its highest in more than two weeks.

Bullion hit its highest since Nov. 6 on Thursday, and has risen over 0.8% so far for the week.

US gold futures settled 1.2% lower at USD 2,675.80.

“Gold had an explosive year and we’re getting into the tail end of the year which might see some unwinding going into the last few weeks, but I think that’s going to be short-lived and believe that gold is going to continue to move much higher,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Underpinned by easing monetary policies, robust central bank buying, and safe-haven demand, gold has shattered multiple record peaks this year.

Traders now see a 97% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s Dec. 17-18 meeting.

The focus will also be on Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary as market participants analyze US monetary policy for 2025, especially in the light of President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plan which economists say would stoke further inflation.

Central banks typically keep interest rates elevated to curb inflation, which in turn increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

“Generally speaking, we see a stronger US economy next year, which should leave less room for rate cuts and should thus bring less tailwinds for gold,” said Carsten Menke, an analyst at Julius Baer.

Spot silver fell 1.3% to USD 30.55 per ounce. Platinum lost 0.9% to USD 921.75 and palladium shed 1.9% to USD 951.87. All three metals were set for weekly losses.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil and Daksh Grover in Bengaluru; Editing by Alexander Smith and Krishna Chandra Eluri)

 

Dollar set for best week in a month on cautious Fed outlook for 2025

Dollar set for best week in a month on cautious Fed outlook for 2025

NEW YORK – The dollar headed for its best weekly performance in a month on Friday, as investors priced in the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates more slowly next year, while sterling fell after a surprise contraction in UK economic activity.

The US currency also rose against the yen after reports that the Bank of Japan could forgo a rate hike at its meeting next week.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six others, was up 0.037% at 107, set for a weekly gain of nearly 1%, its biggest in a month.

US data on Thursday showed the job market is gradually cooling in line with expectations, while producer price inflation helped reinforce the market’s current scenario of a Fed cut on Dec. 18, but a slower pace of reductions in 2025.

Markets fully expect a cut at the upcoming meeting, but only price a roughly 24% chance of another one in January, with March the most likely point for another move, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

“I think there will likely be a long pause, perhaps for all of the first quarter of the year from the Fed and then maybe just an incremental interest rate cut here and there as the central bank tries to refine its policy,” said Matt Weller, head of market research at StoneX.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, for example, said this month that she was comfortable cutting rates in December, but advocated “a more thoughtful and cautious approach” on further reductions.

The dollar rose 0.69% to 153.695 yen, its highest since late November. The yen has been the worst performer this week against the dollar, which has gained 2% on the Japanese currency.

Traders see just a 23% chance of a quarter-point hike by the BOJ on Dec. 19, following reports by Reuters and Bloomberg that pointed to officials forgoing tightening this time in order to wait for more evidence of wage growth and see how US policy takes shape under incoming president Donald Trump.

“While the outcome is uncertain, one thing is clear: a hike exceeding 15 bps would likely trigger a downside move in dollar/yen as the yen strengthens,” City Index market analyst David Scutt said.

“On the other hand, if the BoJ keeps rates unchanged, there’s a solid chance of a knee-jerk upside reaction.”

EUROPE UNDER PRESSURE

In Europe, the pound fell after data showed the UK economy shrank unexpectedly in October, adding to signs of a bigger-than-expected slowdown. The Office for National Statistics said the economy contracted 0.1% in October, compared with forecasts in a Reuters poll for growth of 0.1%.

Sterling was last down 0.45% at USD 1.2616, around its weakest since the start of the month.

The euro pared earlier losses against the dollar and rose 0.26% to USD 1.04945. The European Central Bank on Thursday cut rates by 25 basis points and kept the door open to further easing.

The Swiss franc remained under pressure after the central bank’s shock half-point rate reduction the day before. The Swiss franc was last nearly flat at 0.89265 francs.

Rate cuts and the threat of the US imposing tariffs have Canada’s dollar pinned to a 4-1/2 year low.

The Chinese yuan held at 7.281 per dollar in the offshore market. Reuters reported this week China is considering allowing its currency to fall further to counter the impact from any US trade war.

(Reporting by Hannah Lang in New York; Additional reporting by Amanda Cooper in London and Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by William Maclean, Nick Zieminski, and Daniel Wallis)

 

Yields rise before Federal Reserve meeting

Yields rise before Federal Reserve meeting

Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields rose to a three-week high on Friday before the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates this week by 25 basis points and signal it will pause rate cuts as it grapples with inflation running above its 2% annual target.

The closely watched part of the Treasury yield curve between three-month bills and 10-year notes also turned positive for the first time since November 2022.

Fed policymakers have stated that recent upticks in price pressures are part of the bumpy path to lower inflation and not a reversal of the disinflationary trend.

But analysts say they are also likely to be wary of renewed higher price pressures with President-elect Donald Trump set to take office in January.

“They have to take into account that in an economy where inflation is showing itself at this point to be sticky, and you’re very highly likely going to get further fiscal stimulus, deregulation, and some aspect of tariffs coming through, there’s just no way you can validate why you keep cutting in that instance,” said Tom Fitzpatrick, head of global market insights at R.J. O’Brien in New York.

Fed policymakers are also due to update their economic projections and interest-rate outlook, known as the “dot plot,” on Wednesday at the conclusion of the US central bank’s two-day meeting.

“I think they give a very strong guidance that they’re going to pause in January and also you’ll almost certainly see a revision of the dots in terms of the anticipation of the terminal rate,” Fitzpatrick said.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is due next Friday, after the Fed meeting.

The headline and core PCE data is expected to show that prices rose by 0.2% each in November, for an annual gain of 2.5% and 2.9%, respectively.

Benchmark 10-year note yields were last up 7.9 basis points at 4.403%, the highest since Nov. 22.

Two-year note yields, which are highly sensitive to Fed interest-rate policy, rose 5.5 basis points to 4.241%, the highest since Nov. 27.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes steepened by around three basis points to 16 basis points.

The yield curve between three-month bills and 10-year notes was last at seven basis points, turning positive on Friday for the first time in two years.

An inversion in this part of the yield curve is seen as an indicator that a recession is likely in the next one to two years. The curve typically turns positive before the recession sets in as traders price expected Fed rate cuts into the shorter-dated debt.

But analysts say it does not necessarily indicate an economic downturn is near, with steepening in the US yield curve this week being largely due to concerns about the long-term US fiscal outlook leading longer-dated yields higher.

“The price action this week seems like concern over the fiscal situation,” said Angelo Manolatos, macro strategist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte.

“The yield curve disinverting has largely been a function of the Fed being in an easing cycle and now we are pricing in some potential fiscal premium further out the curve as well,” he said.

The curve between two- and 10-year notes turned positive on Aug. 5, after being inverted since July 2022. An inversion in this part of the curve has also traditionally been viewed as a recession indicator, though the yield-curve inversions this time have lasted longer than in previous episodes.

(Reporting By Karen Brettell; Additional reporting by Harry Robertson; Editing by Nick Zieminski, William Maclean, and Rod Nickel)

 

Fed rate view in focus as robust stocks year draws to close

Fed rate view in focus as robust stocks year draws to close

NEW YORK – A banner year for US stocks gets one of its last big tests with this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, as investors await the central bank’s guidance on interest rate cuts.

The Nasdaq Composite index breached 20,000 for the first time ever in the past week, another milestone for equities in a year during which the tech-heavy index has gained 32% while the S&P 500 has risen about 27%.

Expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates have supported those gains. But while the central bank is expected to lower borrowing costs by another 25 basis points next week, investors have moderated their bets on how aggressively policymakers will move next year due to robust economic growth and sticky inflation.

Bond yields, which move inversely to Treasury prices, have risen in recent sessions as a result, taking the benchmark US 10-year yield to a three-week high of 4.38% on Friday. While stocks have pushed higher despite the rise in yields, the 10-year is approaching the 4.5% level some investors have flagged as a potential trip-wire for broader market turbulence.

“Anything that results in an expectation that maybe the Fed moves even more slowly from here than investors were expecting could create a little bit of downside for stocks,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer with Plante Moran Financial Advisors.

The trajectory of monetary policy is closely monitored by investors, as the level of rates dictates borrowing costs and is a key input in determining stock valuations. Interest rate expectations also sway bond yields, which can dim the allure of equities when they rise because Treasuries are backed by the US government and seen as virtually risk-free if held to term.

Fed fund futures indicated a 96% chance the Fed will cut by 25 basis points when it gives its policy decision on Wednesday, according to CME FedWatch data as of Friday.

But the path for rates next year is less certain. Fed fund futures are implying the rate will be at 3.8% by December of next year, down from the current level of 4.5%-4.75%, according to LSEG data. That is about 100 basis points higher than what was priced in September.

The Fed’s summary of economic projections released at the meeting will provide one indication of where policymakers see rates heading. Officials penciled in a median rate of 3.4% for the end of next year when the summary was last released in September.

One sign of potential support for a slower pace of cuts came from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who this month said the economy is stronger now than the central bank had expected in September.

Another factor that could make Fed officials more cautious about future cuts is the presidential election of Donald Trump, whose pro-growth economic policies and favoring of tariffs are causing concerns about stronger inflation next year.

Analysts at BNP Paribas said they expect a “hawkish cut,” with the central bank likely to “open the door for a pause in further cuts of undefined length.”

Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth, said markets “will be trying to read into how worried is the Fed about inflation.”

November data released in the past week showed progress in lowering inflation toward the US central bank’s 2% target has virtually stalled.

Still, analysts say the market’s momentum favors more gains into year end, while sentiment among investors in surveys remains bullish – though some market technicals suggest the rally in stocks may have grown stretched.

The percentage of Nasdaq constituents hitting 52-week highs has declined since the rally after the Nov 5 election, implying fewer stocks are supporting the advance, Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial, said in a note on Thursday.

“History suggests the tech-heavy index could be due for a breather before longer-term momentum resumes,” Turnquist said.

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Nick Zieminski)

 

Gold slides from 5-week high, down over 1% on profit-taking

Gold slides from 5-week high, down over 1% on profit-taking

Gold slipped over 1% on Thursday as investors booked profits after it briefly reached a five-week high earlier in the session and squared positions ahead of a US Federal Reserve meeting next week.

Spot gold lost 1.2% at USD 2,684.15 per ounce by 01:40 p.m. ET (1840 GMT), while US gold futures settled 1.7% lower at USD 2,709.40. Bullion climbed to its highest level since Nov. 6 earlier in the session.

“Bulls maintain near-term momentum, though a pullback may occur ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting as investors lock in profits,” said Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.

“Focus will shift post-meeting to guidance on the January session and future policy direction, which will be critical in determining the sustainability of further market gains.”

The CME’s FedWatch tool places the likelihood of a December rate cut at 98%.

While there are increasing chances of a rate cut next week, inflation is going up, said Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer at Allegiance Gold, adding that “the Fed is in very much of a bind.”

US producer prices rose more than expected in November amid a surge in the cost of food. This was followed by Wednesday’s inflation data showing consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in November.

Jobless claims also rose in the latest week pointing towards an easing labor market making it more likely that the Fed will cut interest rates next week for the third time, despite little progress in lowering inflation down to its 2% target in recent months.

“Fund positioning remains somewhat bloated relative to market expectations for the FOMC heading into next week. And so we could see some position squaring into that event risk,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Meanwhile, the ECB cut interest rates for the fourth time this year, by a quarter of a percentage point and kept the door open to more.

Spot silver fell 2.7% to USD 30.04 per ounce, platinum was down 1.1% to USD 929.64 and palladium shed 1.1% to USD 970.96.

(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Mohammed Safi Shamsi, and Krishna Chandra Eluri)

 

US yields rise as data points to hawkish Fed rate cut

US yields rise as data points to hawkish Fed rate cut

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields gained on Thursday, but briefly pared their rise after data showed that jobless claims rose in the latest week, while producer price inflation came in above economists’ expectations but showed some underlying weakness.

The data overall confirms expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by another 25 basis points when it concludes its two-day meeting next Wednesday.

But the US central bank is also expected to take a hawkish tone, and may signal that it is likely to pause rate cuts in January as it evaluates the outlook for inflation, which is still running above its 2% annual target, and the strength of the labor market.

“Given that the economy is probably going to be doing okay, I think the Fed could decide to keep rates on hold and just wait and assess to make sure that inflation expectations aren’t re-accelerating,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities in New York.

“The last thing they want is next year to have to restart the rate hiking cycle because they’ve missed something,” Goldberg said.

Key to the Fed’s interest rate path next year will be how quickly the Trump administration introduces policies, including possible new tariffs that analysts say could increase inflation.

Data on Thursday showed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 242,000 for the week ended Dec. 7, which likely reflected volatility after the Thanksgiving holiday.

US producer prices rose more than expected in November amid a surge in the cost of food, but a moderation in the prices of services offered hope that the disinflationary trend remains in place.

TD revised its estimate for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure, downward on the data, Goldberg said. “A lot of the categories that flow into PCE were actually quite a bit weaker.”

Consumer price inflation data for November came in line with economists’ expectations on Wednesday, which boosted bets on another rate cut next week.

Benchmark 10-year note yields were last up 5.5 basis points to 4.326% and got as high as 4.332%, the highest since Nov. 25.

Two-year note yields, which are especially sensitive to interest rates, rose 2.9 basis points to 4.186%.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes steepened by around two basis points to 14 basis points.

The US Treasury Department sold USD 22 billion in 30-year bonds later on Thursday to soft demand, the final sale of USD 119 billion in coupon-bearing supply this week.

The bonds sold at a high yield of 4.535%, around a basis point above where they had traded before the auction. Demand was 2.39 times the amount on offer, the lowest bid-to-cover ratio since September.

The US government saw solid demand for a USD 58 auction of three-year notes on Tuesday and good interest for a USD 39 billion sale of 10-year notes on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Paul Simao and Nick Zieminski)

 

Oil settles flat; markets weigh IEA surplus forecast, rate cut optimism

Oil settles flat; markets weigh IEA surplus forecast, rate cut optimism

NEW YORK – Oil prices settled close to unchanged on Thursday, pressured by a forecast for ample supply in the oil market but supported by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Brent crude futures settled down 11 cents, or 0.15%, to USD 73.41 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 27 cents, or 0.38%, at USD 70.02.

The International Energy Agency made a slight upward revision to its demand outlook for next year but still expected the oil market to be comfortably supplied. On Wednesday, OPEC cut its demand growth forecast for 2024 for the fifth straight month.

“If you look at the actual data, the IEA is saying that the glut they predicted should be happening right this minute,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group. Global oil inventories fell by 39.3 million barrels in October as low refinery activity coincided with a rise in global oil demand, data from IEA showed.

In the US, inflation rose slightly in November, in line with economists’ expectations. Investors broadly expect the Fed to cut rates again, feeding optimism about economic growth and energy demand.

“The inflation report creates a lot of comfort. It could have been better, but it seems to be low enough for the Fed to reduce rates at the next meeting,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB.

In the world’s top oil consumer, the US, gasoline and distillate inventories rose by more than expected last week, Energy Information Administration data showed.

Global oil demand rose at a slower-than-expected rate this month but has remained resilient, JPMorgan analysts said in a note.

Chinese crude imports grew annually for the first time in seven months in November, up more than 14% from a year earlier.

In the Middle East, Iran agreed to tougher monitoring by the U.N. nuclear watchdog at its
Fordow site dug into a mountain after it greatly accelerated uranium enrichment to close to weapons-grade there, putting pressure on prices.

(Reporting by Nicole Jao, Sudarshan Varadhan and Ahmad Ghaddar; Editing by David Gregorio, David Goodman, and Keith Weir)

 

Dollar higher on fresh inflation data, euro lower after ECB rate cut

Dollar higher on fresh inflation data, euro lower after ECB rate cut

NEW YORK – The US dollar rose on Thursday after a hotter-than-expected inflation readout while the euro traded a touch lower following the European Central Bank’s decision to cut interest rates for the fourth time this year.

A Labor Department report on Thursday showed producer prices rose 0.4% on a monthly basis in November, compared with estimates of a 0.2% rise as per economists polled by Reuters.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six others, was last up 0.375% at 106.95, a day after a separate US inflation reading cemented bets for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week.

Markets are now almost fully pricing a 25 basis point cut at the Fed’s Dec. 17-18 meeting, compared with about a 78% chance a week ago, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

“Although the Fed is seen cutting its benchmark by a quarter point, moves in the last 24 hours — from the Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank, and European Central Bank — have ensured that cross-currency rate differentials will remain wide relative to the US, maintaining the dollar’s position in relative terms,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, in a note.

The ECB on Thursday cut interest rates by 25 basis points and kept the door open to further easing ahead as inflation closed in on its goal and the economy remains weak.

The euro was last down 0.2% against the dollar at USD 1.0473.

The Swiss franc was up against the dollar after the Swiss National Bank opted for a 50 basis point interest rate cut. A majority of economists surveyed by Reuters had expected a smaller 25 basis point move.

The dollar was up 0.78% at 0.89135 francs.

“There will be some headwinds in the near term,” said Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen, FX research analyst at Danske Bank, about the Swiss franc after the rate cut.

“But more broadly I still think euro-Swiss will go lower, the franc will strengthen, if we look at the next couple of months ahead as I don’t think the picture is very rosy in the euro area.”

The dollar was slightly higher at 152.525 yen, after hitting a two-week high of 152.845 yen the previous day as market players trimmed back bets for a rate hike in Japan next week.

Reuters reported on Thursday that the BOJ is leaning toward keeping rates steady, as policymakers prefer to spend more time scrutinizing overseas risks and clues on next year’s wage outlook.

But with markets now eyeing a rate hike just a month later in January, the shift has not really become a big driver for investors to pile into the dollar against the yen, said Akira Moroga, chief market strategist at Aozora Bank.

“There were expectations for December, so dollar/yen has been rising from around 150 yen to about the 200-day average,” he said.

The Australian dollar was down 0.06% at USD 0.6365, pulling further away from the just over one-year low of USD 0.63370 touched on Wednesday.

Australia’s jobless rate posted a shock decline to an eight-month low in November, prompting markets to scale back bets for easing from the Reserve Bank of Australia in February.

The kiwi was last down 0.25% at USD 0.577, after hitting its lowest since Nov. 2022 at USD 0.57625 in the previous session.

The yuan was last trading around 7.2772 per dollar in offshore trading.

China pledged on Thursday to increase its budget deficit, issue more debt, and loosen monetary policy to maintain stable economic growth

(Reporting by Hannah Lang in New York; Additional reporting by Samuel Indyk in London and Brigid Riley; Editing by William Maclean, Franklin Paul, and Nick Zieminski)

 

China deepens stimulus drive, global signals mixed

China deepens stimulus drive, global signals mixed

Asian markets are set to end the week on the defensive, pressured by rising US bond yields and a firmer dollar, with investors ready to reduce risk exposure as they ponder the cross-currents sweeping through the emerging world.

China’s latest pledges – to widen the budget deficit, issue more debt and loosen monetary policy – have generally been welcomed, but Brazil’s surprisingly aggressive interest rate hike and promise of more to come has had a more mixed impact.

Chinese and Hong Kong stocks bounced strongly on Thursday, and barring a fall of 1.4% or more on Friday, blue chip Chinese stocks will register their third weekly rise in a row, a winning streak not seen since May.

The yuan fell on the stimulus news, as expected, but not by much. Indeed, going into Friday’s session, the onshore yuan is set to break a remarkable run of 10 consecutive weekly declines.

Even less surprising, perhaps, was another leg lower in Chinese bond yields. The 10-year yield is at record lows and is on course for its biggest weekly fall since 2020.

Wall Street understandably took a breather on Thursday after the previous day’s somewhat surprising surge. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% and is poised for a modest fall on the week, and the Nasdaq backed off Wednesday’s record high above 20,000.

It’s still on course for its fourth consecutive weekly rise though, and remarkably, it has declined in only two weeks out of the last 14. The AI-driven bull run in US tech shows every sign of powering on into the year end with Hong Kong’s benchmark tech index is up 3% for the week.

The wider policy and market sentiment thermometer is also sending mixed signals. The Swiss National Bank delivered a jumbo rate cut on Thursday, bringing the zero bound into view and floating the possibility of negative rates, if they are needed.

The European Central Bank cut rates by a more modest 25 basis points, as expected, but was more cautious in its guidance. And hot US producer price inflation pushed up Treasury yields, while punchy jobless claims data stoked concern about the labor market.

All in all, a very mixed bag, and investors may well be relieved that the weekend is near.

Asia’s economic calendar on Friday is light. The two main indicators are India’s wholesale inflation for November, which is expected to ease a bit to 2.2% on an annual basis from 2.36% in October, and Japan’s fourth quarter Tankan survey of business sentiment.

The Australian dollar and Philippine peso could move on scheduled speeches from RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter and Philippine central bank governor Eli Remolona, respectively.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:

– Japan Tankan survey (Q4)

– India wholesale inflation (November)

– New Zealand manufacturing PMI (November)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Bill Berkrot)

 

Dollar higher after CPI; China considers letting yuan weaken

Dollar higher after CPI; China considers letting yuan weaken

NEW YORK – The dollar was higher on Wednesday after US price data came in line with forecasts, reinforcing expectations the US Federal Reserve would cut interest rates next week.

The dollar was also boosted by a Reuters report China was considering allowing a weaker currency next year, which sent the yuan and other Asian currencies lower.

The consumer price index rose 0.3% last month, the largest gain since April after advancing 0.2% for four straight months, data showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would rise 0.3%.

Following the report, the likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed on Dec. 18 rose to more than 94%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

“The market is as confident as possible, practically, that the Fed is still going to cut rates next week,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Forex in New York. “Very rarely does the Federal Reserve go against the market when such strong odds are priced in.”

The US dollar index was last up 0.329% at 106.7.

Analysts said the dollar was also being affected by Reuters’ report that China’s top leaders and policymakers are considering allowing the yuan to weaken in 2025 as they brace for higher trade tariffs under a second Donald Trump presidency.

Against the yuan, the dollar was last up 0.3% against the offshore unit at 7.2825.

The contemplated move reflects China’s recognition that it needs bigger economic stimulus to combat Trump’s threat of bigger tariffs, people with knowledge of the matter said, according to the report.

“That’s going to keep Asian currency more depressed [and]keep emerging markets more depressed,” said Helen Given, FX trader at Monex USA.

China is expected to hold its annual Central Economic Work Conference this week, after Monday’s Politburo meeting vowed to switch to an “appropriately loose” monetary policy to spur economic growth.

“If a currency depreciation served as a tactic to counter tariff shock, the likely escalating trade war could reinforce (US dollar) exceptionalism and weigh on regional currencies,” said Ken Cheung, FX strategist at Mizuho.

China-exposed currencies fell, with the Aussie AUD=D3 last down 0.11% to USD 0.6371 and the kiwi 0.26% lower at USD 0.579, after both touched on year lows after the report. Korea’s under-fire won also dipped.

Japan’s yen was in focus after Bloomberg news reported the Bank of Japan sees “little cost” to waiting for the next rate hike.

The dollar was last 0.44% higher at 152.63 yen.

Earlier in the day, the yen strengthened after data showed Japanese wholesale inflation accelerated, supporting the case for a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike next week.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada slashed its key policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.25% to help address slower growth. That move helped keep the loonie near a 4-1/2-year low against the greenback. One US dollar last bought CUSD 1.4156.

In a busy week for monetary policy, the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank will meet on Thursday.

The euro was down 0.34% at USD 1.0492, while the Swiss franc was down 0.21% against the dollar at 0.8846.

(Reporting by Hannah Lang in New York; additional reporting by Alun John in London and Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Sam Holmes, Will Dunham, Toby Chopra, and Christina Fincher)

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