Oil prices climb on hurricane impact ahead of US rate decision

NEW YORK – Oil prices rose on Monday as the ongoing impact of Hurricane Francine on output in the US Gulf of Mexico offset persistent Chinese demand concerns ahead of this week’s US Federal Reserve interest rate cut decision.

Brent crude futures for November settled at USD 72.75 a barrel, up USD 1.14, or 1.59%. US crude futures for October settled at USD 70.09, up USD 1.44, or 2.1%.

“We’ve still got the remnants of the storm,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler. “The impact is more on the production side than on refining. Therefore, it leans a little bit bullish.”

More than 12% of crude production and 16% of natural gas output in the US Gulf of Mexico remained offline in the aftermath of Hurricane Francine, the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said on Monday.

Overall, however, the market remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Traders are increasingly betting on a Fed rate cut of 50 basis points (bps) rather than 25 bps, as shown by the CME FedWatch tool that tracks Fed fund futures.

Lower interest rates typically reduce the cost of borrowing, which can boost economic activity and lift demand for oil.

“A quarter-percent Fed rate cut could heighten traders’ concerns about the pace of oil demand growth,” Clay Seigle, an oil market strategist, said in an email.

The market may see conflicting trends if the Fed delivers a more aggressive rate cut, Seigle said.

“Bulls will feel more confident about resilient oil demand with a soft landing, while bears pushing spreads into contango will welcome reduced physical carrying costs,” Seigle said.

Contango is when front-month contracts are cheaper than future months.

Weaker Chinese economic data over the weekend dampened market sentiment, with the low-for-longer growth outlook in the world’s second-largest economy reinforcing doubts over oil demand, IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said in an email.

Industrial output growth in China, the world’s top oil importer, slowed to a five-month low in August while retail sales and new home prices weakened further.

China’s oil refinery output also fell for a fifth month as weak fuel demand and export margins curbed production.

Brent and WTI each gained about 1% last week but remain comfortably below their August averages of USD 78.88 and USD 75.43 a barrel, respectively, after a price slide around the start of this month driven in part by demand concerns.

(Reporting by Nicole Jao in New York, Robert Harvey in London, and Emily Chow and Trixie Yap in Singapore; Additional reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Alexander Smith, Will Dunham, and Nick Zieminski)

Prospect of big Fed rate-cut keeps gold at record levels

Gold prices extended gains to an all-time high on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar and the prospect of a big rate reduction by the US Federal Reserve at its policy meeting this week.

Spot gold was up 0.2% at USD 2,581.37 an ounce by 2:32 p.m. ET (1832 GMT), after touching a record high of USD 2,589.59. US gold futures settled 0.1% lower to USD 2,608.90.

The dollar index eased 0.3%, making the bullion more attractive to buyers holding other currencies.

“Fifty basis points rate cut (from the Fed) is priced in the market right now. That’s why gold futures are as high as they are and I think that gold futures will come down if we only see a 25 basis point cut,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.

The focal point of this week is the Fed interest rate decision due on Wednesday. Traders’ expectations are for a 61% chance of a cut of 50 basis points, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The latest attempt on former president Trump created some political uncertainty that would tend to be positive for gold, said Peter A. Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

The FBI said that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump was the subject of a second assassination attempt on Sunday.

Bullion is considered a safe asset during political and economic uncertainty. It also tends to thrive in a low-rate environment as higher rates reduce the appeal of holding non-yielding gold.

“We expect a recovery in strategic investments in gold will push prices higher. A 100 bp cut could see 200–250 (metric) tons of exchange traded funds (ETF) net flows over the coming months,” ANZ analysts said in a note.

“We expect gold prices to move towards USD 2,700 in the short term and reach a high of USD 2,900 by the end of 2025,” the note added.

Spot silver gained 0.3% to USD 30.74 an ounce. Platinum shed 1.2% to USD 983.21 and palladium was up 0.5% at USD 1,073.95.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Barbara Lewis, Shreya Biswas, and Alan Barona)

Dollar pinned down by 50 bp Fed cut bets

SINGAPORE – The dollar traded near its lowest levels of the year on Tuesday, on the eve of the expected start to a US easing cycle that markets are betting may begin with an outsized rate cut.

The euro rallied overnight to USD 1.1138 and traded around there early in the Asia session, not far from the year’s high against the dollar of USD 1.1201.

The yen made a jaunt to the stronger side of 140 during holiday thinned trade on Monday, and had eased back to 140.96 as dealers returned to their desks in Tokyo.

It has fallen the most this year so it has the most room to rally on a dovish turn from the US central bank.

A sustained break of 140.00 would open the way to a low from last January at 127.215.

Fed funds futures rallied on Monday to push the chance of a 50 basis point rate cut to 67%, against 30% a week ago. The odds have narrowed sharply after media reports revived the prospect of a more aggressive easing.

“Regardless of which of -25bps or -50bps the (Fed) goes with on Wednesday, we do think that the Fed’s messaging will be ‘dovish,'” said Macquarie strategist in a note to clients.

“The USD could weaken against the majors on a very dovish tone, even with a -25bp cut … the largest losses, if any, are still likely to be experienced against the JPY,” they said.

“That’s because the contrast between central bank outlooks will remain starkest between the Fed and the BoJ, for the time being.”

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep policy steady on Friday but signal that further interest rate hikes are coming, perhaps turning the next meeting in October into a live one.

The sterling – the best-performing G10 currency this year with a 3.9% rise on the dollar – has also led the charge against the dollar thanks to signs of resilience in Britain’s economy and stickiness in inflation.

It broke above USD 1.32 on Monday and bought USD 1.3209 early in the Asia session. The Bank of England is generally expected to leave rates on hold at 5% when it meets on Thursday, though markets have priced in a 36% chance of another cut.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars also rallied through Monday and bought USD 0.6750 and USD 0.6192 respectively on Tuesday, as traders focused more on the Fed rather than weekend signs of deepening trouble in China’s sluggish economy.

Chinese markets are closed for the mid-autumn festival break until Wednesday, though the yuan was firm at 7.1000 in offshore trade as it settles in to a new range.

The US dollar index weakened 0.4% overnight to 100.7, not far from its 2024 low made last month at 100.51.

US retail sales data and Canadian CPI figures are due later in the session, though all eyes are on the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Lincoln Feast)

US two-year yield falls to lowest since September 2022

WASHINGTON – The US Treasury two-year yield fell to its lowest in two years on Monday, while the 10-year’s yield eased for a second straight session, as investors weighed the odds of a half-percentage-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week.

In afternoon trading, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 2.8 basis points to 3.621%, while US two-year yields fell to 3.528%, their lowest since September 2022. They were last down 1.5 bps at 3.561%.

Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, declined last week after growing speculation around a 50-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s Sept. 17-18 rate-setting meeting.

On Monday, New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley reiterated his calls last week for the Fed to make a big cut on Wednesday. In an opinion piece on Bloomberg News, the former Fed official noted that the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment has become more balanced, which suggests monetary policy should be neutral – neither restricting nor boosting economic activity.

The yield curve, meanwhile, steepened for a third straight session, with the spread comparing 10-year and two-year yields widening to as much as 10 bps on Monday. That’s the steepest since July 2022, with the curve last at 5.8 bps.

Investors track the yield curve for signals on the US economic outlook.

The probability of a 50-bp easing was last seen at 61% on Monday, up from 45% on Friday, according to LSEG calculations.

A key factor heading into this week’s Fed meeting will be how the central bank handles these market expectations, even as inflation has been cooling and the labor market has shown signs of weakness.

“While we’re still in the 25-bp camp, we’ll concede that the more aggressively the market prices in 50 bp, the more compelled the Fed will be to follow through with such a move,” Ian Lyngen, director of fixed income strategy at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a research note on Monday.

Some in the market were skeptical, however, about whether such a large cut was necessary as recent signs point to still-sticky inflation, and uncertainty swirls around November’s US presidential election.

“I don’t think 50 (basis points) is warranted, because 25 gives them more optionality to say, ‘Hey, we can do more, but it’s an election year,'” said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager for global fixed income at Brandywine Global Investment Management.

August retail sales data, scheduled for release on Tuesday, will perhaps be the most influential economic data point heading into the Fed’s decision on Wednesday, market participants said.

Recent reports have pointed to a slowing economy, contributing to a market consensus that the Fed will announce a rate cut, whether 25 bps or 50 bps, after this week’s meeting.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate US10YTIP=RR was last at 2.09%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.1% a year for the next decade.

“We should take a step back and remember that (the calls for a 50 bp cut are) informed by a pretty significant slowdown in the overall pace of economic activity,” said Michael Lorizio, senior fixed income trader at Manulife Investment Management.

“How far they’re going to go towards normalizing rates will ultimately matter more, not only for the outright level of (yields), but also how we try to figure out what the appropriate shape of the curve should be.”

(Reporting by Matt Tracy; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)

Dovish Fed eyed, China’s deflationary forces intensify

If deepening gloom around China and a surging Japanese yen are the local market drivers in Asia, the Fed’s upcoming interest rate decision hangs heavily over world markets as growing hopes for a 50 basis point cut push the dollar to new lows for the year.

Wall Street lost ground on Monday even as bond yields edged lower, with jitters beginning to bubble up as Wednesday’s Fed decision draws closer.

Rates traders are now putting a 60% probability on a half percentage point cut and expect 120 bps of easing over the three remaining policy meetings this year. That effectively implies two of them will deliver 50 bps cuts.

This front-loaded dovishness is weighing heavily on the dollar, especially against the yen. The Japanese currency on Monday hit its strongest level since July last year, with the dollar falling below 140.00 yen before regaining that threshold.

Indeed the MSCI index for emerging market currencies, which dates back to 2009, hit a lifetime high on Monday.

The decline in implied rates and yields is putting Hong Kong interbank rates under downward pressure too. The overnight Hong Kong interbank offered rate or ‘Hibor’ on Monday hit a one-year low of around 2.44%, and one-year Hibor touched its lowest in two years near 4.07%.

Amidst all this, China’s outlook continues to darken.

A “downward spiral”, reckons SocGen. “From bad to worse” and “a vicious cycle,” says Barclays. “Things could get worse before they get better,” warns Morgan Stanley.

These are some of the reactions from analysts at global brokerages to the latest wave of weak economic data that shows not only is the world’s second-largest economy in deep trouble, but the global spillover cannot be ignored either.

Economists at Goldman Sachs and Citi lowered their 2024 GDP growth forecasts for China to 4.7%, a level notably below Beijing’s target of around 5%. Others may well follow suit, and for most of those that don’t, the risk to their outlook is firmly to the downside.

Uniformly weak industrial, consumer, and house price data on Saturday followed soft bank lending figures on Friday, bolstering the case for aggressive stimulus to shore up demand and growth.

The trouble is few analysts expect Beijing to deliver the scale of fiscal and monetary support required. Some analysts point to the European housing crashes in the Global Financial Crisis and say it could be a decade before China fully emerges from its property sector implosion.

The Chinese 10-year bond yield fell below 2.05% on Monday for the first time ever, nearing a much more symbolically significant break below 2.00%. The two-year yield around 1.35% is near the lows plumbed at the height of the pandemic.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Tuesday:

– India wholesale price inflation (August)

– Indonesia trade (August)

– Japan tertiary index (July)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Deepa Babington)

US yields decline amid speculation on large Fed rate cut

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields moved lower on Friday as the possibility of a supersized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week gained ground again.

Former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley said on Thursday there was a strong case for a 50 basis point interest rate cut at the Fed’s Sept. 17-18 rate-setting meeting.

Market participants also mentioned news articles in the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal, which highlighted that the size of the first cut could be a close call for Fed officials, as factors that spurred bets on a large cut.

Speculation around a larger half-percentage-point rate cut may have also been triggered by a sizeable bet on a 50 basis point cut that hit the rates futures market late on Thursday, said Spencer Hakimian, CEO of Tolou Capital Management, a New York-based macro hedge fund. After that trade, the market-implied odds that the Fed will reduce interest rates by 50 basis points jumped to 45% from 15% “in the blink of an eye,” he said.

The probability of a 50 basis point cut was last seen at 51% on Friday, up from 28% on Thursday, CME Group data showed.

Many in the market, however, remained skeptical about the need for a large rate adjustment given continued resilience in the economy and recent signals that inflation, while declining, remains somewhat sticky.

“I’m looking for the market to pull back here; I just don’t see the economic and inflation data justifying a 50 basis point rate cut,” said Tony Farren, managing director in rates sales and trading at Mischler Financial Group.

For Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities, bond volatility was to be expected in the absence of fresh signals from Fed officials. Their remarks last week, before entering a so-called quiet period ahead of the September rate-setting meeting, were seen as endorsing a quarter-percentage-point reduction and leaving the door open to further and perhaps bigger moves.

“In a vacuum, you get lots and lots of volatility by definition,” said Goldberg. “We know it’s going to be a discussion, but had they wanted to send a signal that the market should be priced in for 50 basis points, they would have sent one.”

On the economic data front, Friday’s releases did not change the overall picture of a gradually slowing economy.

A release by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday that US import prices dropped by the most in eight months in August amid lower costs for fuels and food products, suggesting domestic inflation will continue to subside in the months ahead. Two-year yields declined briefly after the data.

Meanwhile, a preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s September consumer sentiment index improved slightly, standing at 69 compared with analysts’ estimates of 68.5.

Benchmark 10-year yields were last at 3.647%, down from 3.68% on Thursday. Two-year yields, more closely linked to monetary policy expectations, declined to 3.576% from 3.648% on Thursday.

The curve comparing 10- and two-year yields, which investors look at closely for its signals on the economic outlook, widened to about 7 basis points, the steepest it has been since July 2022.

(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)

Size, speed of rate moves in focus as Fed poised to start cuts

NEW YORK – The Federal Reserve is in focus next week, as uncertainty swirls over how much the US central bank will cut interest rates at its monetary policy meeting and the pace at which it will reduce borrowing costs in coming months.

The S&P 500 index is just 1% shy of its July record high despite weeks of market swings sparked by worries over the economy and seesawing bets on the size of the cut at the Fed’s Sept. 17-18 meeting.

After fluctuating sharply throughout the week, Fed funds futures on Friday showed traders pricing an almost equal chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 50 basis point reduction, according to CME Fedwatch. The shifting bets reflect one of the key questions facing markets today: whether the Fed will head off weakening in the labor market with aggressive cuts, rather than take a slower wait-and-see approach.

“The market wants to see the Fed portray a level of confidence that growth is slowing but not falling off a cliff,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. “They want to see … that there’s still this ability to gradually normalize monetary policy.”

Investors will focus on the Fed’s fresh economic projections and interest rate outlook. Markets are pricing in 115 basis points of cuts by the end of 2024, according to LSEG data late on Friday. The Fed’s June forecast, by comparison, penciled in one 25-basis point cut for the year.

Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital, said the central bank should opt for 50 basis points on Wednesday. He pointed to the gap between the 2-year Treasury yield, last around 3.6%, and the Fed funds rate of 5.25%-5.5%.

That gap is “a signal that the Fed is really tight relative to where the market is,” Todd said. “They are late in starting this cutting cycle and they need to catch up.”

Aggressive rate cut bets have helped fuel a Treasury rally, with the 10-year yield down some 80 basis points since the start of July to around 3.65%, near its lowest level since June 2023.

But if the Fed continues to project significantly less easing than the market does for this year, bonds will have to reprice, pushing yields higher, said Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners.

Rising yields could pressure stock valuations, Mullaney said, which are already high relative to history. The S&P 500 was last trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times expected 12-month earnings, compared to its long-term average of 15.7, according to LSEG Datastream.

“I find it implausible that you’re going to get P/E multiple expansion between now and year-end in a rising (yield) environment,” Mullaney said.

With the S&P 500 up about 18% so far this year, it may not take much to disappoint investors with next week’s Fed meeting.

Focus has turned to the employment market as inflation has moderated, with job growth coming in less robust than expected in the past two monthly reports.

The unemployment rate jumped to 4.2% in August, one month after the Fed projected it reaching that level only in 2025, said Oscar Munoz, chief US macro strategist at TD Securities. That indicates the central bank may need to show it will move aggressively to bring down rates to their “neutral” level, he added.

“If the (forecast) disappoints, meaning they turn more conservative and they don’t ease as much … I think the market might not take it well,” Munoz said.

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Richard Chang)

Global equity funds see second weekly outflow on caution over economic outlook

Global investors were net sellers of equity funds for a second successive week through Sept. 11, driven by concerns over the health of the US economy and caution about the political climate in the run-up to the US Presidential debate.

However, optimism over central banks’ rate cuts trimmed down the outflows.

According to LSEG data, investors withdrew USD 3.46 billion from global equity funds during the week, a reduction in sales volume compared to the USD 4.96 billion in net sales the prior week.

US data signaling economic slowdown sparked last week’s global equity sell-off, but world stocks rebounded over 2% this week following an ECB rate cut and prospects of a 50-basis point US rate cut in the next week’s meeting.

Investors sold USD 7.82 billion worth of US equity funds last week following USD 11.54 billion in net sales the prior week. Conversely, Asian and European funds drew inflows of USD 2.91 billion and USD 793 million, respectively.

“We prefer global equities to fixed income once again, as rate cuts are starting around the globe and joblessness is still low,” Ajay Rajadhyaksha, chairman for global research at Barclays, said in a note.

“But investors may elect to sit on the sidelines for now, awaiting clarity that will emerge from the US presidential election.”

The technology sector experienced a substantial USD 1.97 billion outflow in the week to Sep. 11, the largest since November 2023. Meanwhile, investors withdrew USD 1.53 billion from financials and allocated USD 1.12 billion and USD 878 million to consumer staples and utilities, respectively.

During the week, investors added USD 21.67 billion and USD 4.14 billion, respectively, to safer money market and government bond funds.

Global bond funds attracted USD 11.81 billion in their 38th consecutive week of inflows, with investors notably putting USD 3.12 billion into short-term funds and USD 1.5 billion into high-yield funds.

Gold and other precious metal funds retained their appeal for the fifth consecutive week with USD 472 million in net purchases, while energy funds saw an increase of USD 150 million in inflows.

Data covering 29,592 emerging market funds showed equity funds lost USD 1.05 billion in outflows for the 14th week in a row. In contrast, bond funds gained USD 567 million, marking a 12th straight week of inflow.

(Reporting by Gaurav Dogra and Patturaja Murugaboopathy in Bengaluru;
Editing by Tomasz Janowski)

Gold hits all-time high as Fed rate-cut hopes bolster appeal

Gold prices rose more than 1% to hit a record high on Thursday, helped by expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week after US data signaled a slowing of the economy.

Spot gold was up 1.7% at USD 2,554.05 per ounce, as of 02:10 p.m. ET (1810 GMT). US gold futures settled 1.5% higher at USD 2,580.60.

The US Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000.

US producer prices increased slightly more than expected in August amid higher costs for services, but the trend remained consistent with subsiding inflation.

“We are headed towards a lower interest rate environment so gold is becoming a lot more attractive … I think we could potentially have a lot more frequent cuts as opposed to a bigger magnitude,” said Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer at Allegiance Gold.

Markets are currently pricing in a 73% chance of a 25-basis-point US rate cut at the Fed’s Sept. 17-18 meeting, and a 27% chance of a 50-bps cut, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

Zero-yield bullion tends to be a preferred investment amid lower interest rates.

“The labor market is continuing to falter and if the labor market deteriorates, the journey that they’ll embark on in cutting rates is going to go for an extended period of time,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.

Elsewhere, palladium gained 4.1% to USD 1,050 per ounce, hitting its highest in over two months.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Moscow should consider limiting exports of uranium, titanium, and nickel in retaliation against the West.

“Palladium is the market that is up for a short-covering rally. Putin did not mention palladium. But since the metal is a by-product of Russian nickel production, such export curbs could drive down production of both metals and deepen the current deficit in the palladium market,” said WisdomTree commodity strategist Nitesh Shah.

Spot silver up 3.7% at USD 29.76 and platinum gained 3% to USD 979.62, hitting its highest level in near two months.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru and Polina Devitt in London; Editing by Christina Fincher, Krishna Chandra Eluri, and Alan Barona)

Oil rises 2% as storm batters US Gulf of Mexico production

NEW YORK – Oil prices rose over 2% on Thursday as producers assessed the impact on output in the US Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Francine tore through offshore oil-producing areas before being downgraded to a tropical storm.

Over 730,000 barrels per day, or nearly 42%, of Gulf of Mexico oil output was shut in due to storm Francine on Thursday, the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by USD 1.66, or 2.5%, to settle at USD 68.97 per barrel. Brent crude futures rose by USD 1.36, or 1.9%, to USD 71.97 per barrel.

Both contracts had gained more than 2% on Wednesday as companies evacuated offshore platforms due to Francine. The disruptions are estimated to reduce output this month from the Gulf of Mexico by around 50,000 barrels per day, UBS analysts said.

Some analysts, however, cautioned that Francine’s impact could be short-lived, as it lost intensity quickly after making landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday evening. That could turn the oil market’s attention back to a lack of global demand, Alex Hodes, an analyst at StoneX, told clients in a note.

Oil and fuel export ports from south to central Texas had already reopened on Thursday and refineries were also ramping up.

Concerns about weak global oil demand, particularly from top importer China, have weighed heavily on prices in recent months. Brent crude futures settled near a three-year low on Tuesday after the OPEC+ producer group slashed its annual demand growth forecasts for the second month in a row.

The International Energy Agency on Thursday lowered its 2024 demand growth forecasts by more than 7% to 900,000 bpd, citing weak demand in China and feeble growth in other regions.

The US, the top consumer of oil, is also flashing signs of weak demand. Oil stockpiles rose in the country last week as crude imports grew, exports dipped and fuel demand slumped, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday.

US gasoline prices are trending towards a three-year low because of weak demand and abundant supplies, analysts said. US gasoline consumption represents nearly 9% of global oil demand.

Market participants are also closely following a weeks-long crisis over control of Libya’s central bank, which has led to oil output and export reductions from the country. A preliminary agreement was reached last week to resolve the crisis, but the situation remains fluid.

Analysts at FGE said crude output in Libya is recovering and export loadings are resuming, but warned that a full recovery remains uncertain.

(Reporting by Shariq Khan and Arunima Kumar; Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, Katya Golubkova, Emily Chow, Jeslyn Lerh; Editing by David Goodman, Jason Neely, Paul Simao, and Cynthia Osterman)

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