Oil settles down after Israel agrees to ceasefire deal with Hezbollah

HOUSTON – Oil prices settled lower on Tuesday, extending the previous day’s losses in choppy trade after Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah, reducing oil’s risk premium.

Brent crude futures settled down 20 cents, or 0.27%, to USD 72.81 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at USD 68.77 a barrel, down 17 cents, or 0.25%.

The accord between Israel and armed group Hezbollah was expected to take effect on Wednesday, US President Joe Biden said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was ready to implement a ceasefire and would “respond forcefully to any violation” by Hezbollah.

On Monday, oil prices fell more than USD 2 following multiple reports that the warring sides had agreed to terms of a ceasefire.

A ceasefire could pressure crude oil prices because the US administration would likely reduce sanctions on oil from Iran, a supporter of Hezbollah, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said in a note.

OPEC+ EYE OUTPUT HIKE DELAY

Both benchmarks briefly jumped more than USD 1 per barrel during the session.

“We popped and dropped around the time news came out of the resumption of OPEC talks,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group.

OPEC+ nations are discussing a further delay to a planned oil-output hike that was due to start in January, two sources from the producer group said, ahead of Sunday’s meeting to decide policy for early 2025.

The group pumps about half the world’s oil, and had planned to gradually roll back oil-production cuts with small increases over many months in 2024 and 2025. But a slowdown in Chinese and global demand, and rising output outside the group, have put a dampener on that plan.

“There were embers in the fire this morning with OPEC+ looking to defer production increases again and the Trump tariffs, but those were not enough to move the needle to support prices anywhere above USD 70 a barrel for WTI,” said Again Capital partner John Kilduff.

TRUMP TARIFFS TO INCLUDE CRUDE OIL, SOURCES

US President-elect Donald Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on all products coming into the US from Mexico and Canada.

Crude oil would not be exempt from the trade penalties, two sources familiar with the plan told Reuters on Tuesday.

Maintaining the flow of energy products across the US borders with Mexico and Canada is critical, the top US oil and gas lobbying group, American Petroleum Institute, said.

The vast majority of Canada’s 4 million barrels per day of crude exports go to the US. Analysts have said it is unlikely Trump will impose tariffs on Canadian oil, which cannot be easily replaced since it differs from the grades that the US produces.

Meanwhile, US crude oil stocks fell while fuel inventories rose last week, market sources said, citing API figures on Tuesday.

Crude stocks fell by 5.94 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 22, the sources said on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.81 million barrels and distillate stocks climbed by 2.54 million barrels, they said.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, Paul Carsten and Enes Tunagur in London, Gabrielle Ng in Singapore; Editing by Jan Harvey, Susan Fenton, David Gregorio, Jonathan Oatis, Deepa Babington and Rod Nickel)

Wall Street stocks end higher on tech; markets analyze Trump’s tariff threats, Fed minutes

The benchmark S&P 500 and the Nasdaq ended higher on Tuesday, as technology stocks rebounded, while investors digested President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff pledges on top trade partners and the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve.

US short-term interest-rate futures pared earlier losses after the Fed’s latest minutes showed officials appeared divided over how much further they may need to cut interest rates.

The minutes of the Nov. 6-7 meeting also showed that the group agreed that this was a moment to avoid giving much concrete guidance about how US monetary policy is likely to evolve in the weeks ahead.

“The minutes did nothing to alter my view that the policy rate is going to be adjusted lower next week and will continue to do so through the next calendar year,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group.

Other analysts were more cautious.

Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, noted that he still expects another 25 basis-point cut, but cautioned such decisions are data-dependent and therefore November’s employment and inflation data will be pivotal

In a development overnight, Trump said he would impose a 25% conditional tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports that could violate a free-trade deal he negotiated during his previous term. He also outlined “an additional 10% tariff, above any additional tariffs” on imports from China, raising the risk of trade wars.

Automakers Ford and General Motors both dropped on the news as they have highly integrated supply chains across Mexico, the US, and Canada.

“The concern is that some products are going to become more costly and that will mean revenue for those companies that are possibly manufacturing those goods overseas is going to decline,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth.

“It’s a lot of back-and-forth right now because investors are trying to position themselves for January and the days after and they’re not really sure.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 123.74 points, or 0.28%, to 44,860.31, the S&P 500 gained 34.23 points, or 0.57%, to 6,021.60 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 119.46 points, or 0.63%, to 19,174.30.

Gains in megacaps such as Microsoft and Apple boosted the information technology sector and the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

Wells Fargo stood out among sluggish banking stocks, gaining after Reuters reported, citing sources, that the bank is in the last stages of a process to pass regulatory tests to lift a USD 1.95 trillion asset cap next year after fixing problems from its scandal over fake accounts.

The blue-chip Dow was weighed down by declines in Amgen, which slid after its experimental obesity drug fell short of expectations.

The S&P 500 touched a record high on Monday and logged its sixth-straight session of gains, while the Russell 2000 also scaled an all-time high after three years. On the day, the small-cap index fell.

Among others, Eli Lilly rose after US President Joe Biden proposed expanding Medicare and Medicaid coverage for anti-obesity drugs.

Best Buy slumped and was among the top decliners on the S&P 500 after trimming its annual profit and sales forecasts.

(Reporting by Saeed Azhar in Toronto; Johann M Cherian and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel and Matthew Lewis)

US bond rally loses steam after Trump’s tariffs pledge

NEW YORK – US Treasury long-term yields rose on Tuesday, as a sharp bond rally lost momentum and investors assessed US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff pledges.

Trump said on Monday he would impose tariffs on products from Canada, Mexico and China, sparking volatility as investors braced for trade disputes. The announcement came after a sharp rally in bonds triggered by Trump’s pick of hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary.

The backup in yields reflected the risk of rising inflation under higher tariffs, some investors said. It was also an indication that technical factors that contributed to the earlier rally had lost some steam, said Subadra Rajappa, head US rates strategy at Société Générale.

Investors digested a handful of economic data on Tuesday indicating the economy remained on solid footing. This included Federal Housing Finance Agency data showing US single-family house prices increased solidly in September, as well as the November reading of Consumer Confidence released by the Conference Board, which was in line with expectations.

Minutes of the Nov. 6-7 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which were released on Tuesday, showed Federal Reserve officials appeared divided at their meeting over how much farther they may need to cut interest rates, though many said it was appropriate to reduce policy restraint gradually.

Short-term Treasury yields declined after the release, while rates futures traders marginally increased their bets on a 25 basis point cut at the Fed’s rate-setting meeting next month. A December cut had a 60% probability later on Tuesday, up from 56% earlier in the day, CME Group data showed.

“Concern about the tariffs and concern about the US deficit are what’s weighing on the market for the ability of the Fed to really cut,” said Matt Eagan, portfolio manager and head of the Full Discretion Team at Loomis, Sayles & Company.

At the same time, he said the market reaction to the potential inflationary impact of tariffs was relatively muted, as many interpreted Trump’s pledges as a negotiating tactic.

“There’s a lot of optimism that this is all just negotiations … Treasuries are more or less getting the joke,” he said.

On the supply side, the Treasury sold USD 70 billion in five-year notes on Tuesday, following a USD 69 billion two-year note auction on Monday that was well received by investors.

Tuesday’s auction was also met with solid demand. The notes were sold with a high yield of 4.197%, nearly two basis points below the market rate at the bidding deadline, in a sign investors were willing to pay up to absorb the issuance.

Benchmark 10-year yields were last seen at 4.306%, up from 4.263% on Monday.

Two-year yields, which tend to more closely reflect monetary policy expectations, were last at 4.254%, slightly lower than on Monday. Further out, 30-year yields were at 4.481%, up from 4.447% on Monday.

The closely watched yield curve comparing two- and 10-year Treasury yields steepened on Tuesday and was last at 4.6 basis points. It had inverted marginally on Monday, with short-term bonds yielding more than longer-dated ones.

(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia, Editing by Nick Zieminski)

Gold steady as safe-haven demand faces mixed geopolitical signals

Gold prices were caught in a tug-of-war on Tuesday, dipping to a week’s low as safe-haven demand softened as Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal with Lebanon, while concern over Ukraine and US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plans limited declines.

Spot gold was steady at USD 2,626.83 per ounce as of 02:07 p.m. ET (1906 GMT), erasing some of the earlier losses when prices hit their lowest since Nov. 18. US gold futures settled 0.1% higher at USD 2,621.30.

This follows Monday’s dramatic USD 100 plunge, when gold retreated from a three-week high. The sell-off was fueled by Israel and Hezbollah ceasefire optimism and further pressured by Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, which tempered demand for gold as a safe haven.

Israel’s security cabinet has agreed a ceasefire deal with Lebanon, Channel 12 reported on Tuesday.

“It’s probably some realization that a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah only modestly mitigates overall geopolitical risks, certainly there’s some optimism there,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Concern over the wider fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to remain very high, however, Grant said adding that gold will likely experience choppy consolidation in the near term, ranging between USD 2,575-USD 2,750.

Gold is traditionally seen as a safe investment during economic and geopolitical uncertainty such as trade wars.

Trump’s pledge of big tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China looms large. While they could spark trade wars and bolster gold’s appeal, the resulting inflation risks might tamper Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially weighing on prices, analysts said.

Markets are now focused on Fed November meeting minutes later in the day. With a 56% chance of a December rate cut being priced in, investors remain cautious.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Nov. 6-7 meeting showed, officials expressed differing views on potential future rate cuts. However, they collectively decided to withhold specific guidance on the likely direction of US monetary policy.

Some participants suggested a pause in rate easing if inflation stays high, while others proposed accelerated cuts if the labor market or economic activity weakens.

Spot silver rose 0.4% to USD 30.40 per ounce and palladium gained 1% to USD 982.87.

Platinum lost 1.3% to USD 926.35, with Commerzbank analysts forecasting
platinum prices to hit USD 1,100 in 2025.

(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; editing by Philippa Fletcher, Shreya Biswas, and Mohammed Safi Shamsi)

Trump tariff pledge roils currencies

Donald Trump’s vow of hefty tariffs threatened to continue to cloud Asian trading on Wednesday after the US president-elect’s surprise announcements roiled currency markets.

Officials from Mexico, Canada, and China warned of broad negative economic consequences after Trump called for a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% levy on Chinese goods, until the countries clamped down on illicit drugs and migrants crossing the border.

The reaction in these countries’ currencies against the dollar was swift: China’s yuan fell to its weakest in nearly four months, Canada’s currency hit its lowest in more than four years against the US greenback, while the Mexican peso sank over 2%.

Some of the reaction moderated toward the end of the US session, as investors considered Trump’s salvo potentially part of a negotiating tactic that they were more prepared for after experiencing his first term as US president.

The reaction was also felt in equities, albeit more modestly. China’s blue-chip CSI300 index edged down 0.2%. European indexes also declined, with Europe’s STOXX 600 off 0.6%, while the US benchmark S&P 500 ended with a 0.6% gain.

Some pockets were hit harder, including auto stocks amid fears the tariffs would rattle supply chains. In Europe, Stellantis shares sank nearly 5%, while Volkswagen dropped more than 2%. In the US, General Motors fell 9%.

The day’s action served as a reminder of the volatility Trump could bring to markets, especially with his desire to implement tariffs, a day after his choice of prominent investor Scott Bessent to lead the Treasury Department appeared to calm concerns in the bond market.

Elsewhere, markets will be following the fallout for Adani Group. Two more credit rating agencies cut their outlook for the Indian conglomerate, whose billionaire founder Gautam Adani has been charged by US authorities over an alleged bribery scheme.

Inflation will also be in focus on Wednesday, with the release of the key US personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure followed closely by the Federal Reserve. Minutes released on Tuesday covering the latest Fed meeting showed central bank officials appeared divided over how much farther they may need to cut interest rates.

In other central bank developments, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was set to give its latest monetary policy decision, with expectations that it would lower interest rates by 50 basis points.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

– Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy meeting

– Australia CPI (Oct)

– US PCE inflation data (Oct)

(Editing by Deepa Babington)

S&P 500 to gain over 8% by end of next year after strong 2024

NEW YORK – The S&P 500 will rise over 8% between now and end-2025 as US interest rate cuts and potentially less regulation under President-elect Donald Trump extend the market’s strong run, according to a Reuters poll of equity strategists.

Continued US economic health will boost earnings growth, and some strategists cited financials as among their top sector picks going into 2025, partly because of prospects for deregulation under Trump.

Some market participants expect Trump’s agenda of tax cuts and deregulation will propel economic growth and further gains in the market.

The benchmark S&P 500 will end 2025 at 6,500 points, according to the median forecast of 48 equity strategists, analysts, brokers and portfolio managers collected Nov. 15-26. That’s up about 8.5% from its 5,987.37 close on Monday.

The latest end-2025 forecast is sharply higher than the 5,900 forecast in a Reuters poll in August.

Stocks rallied to record highs following the Nov. 5 presidential election which Republican Trump won, four years after being voted out of the White House.

Overall, the S&P 500 has surged about 26% so far in 2024, fueled in part by sharp gains in Nvidia, Microsoft and other US heavyweights dominating the race for artificial intelligence technology.

David Kostin, chief US equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, forecast in his recent 2025 equity outlook that the “Magnificent 7” group of high-performing stocks – which include Nvidia and Microsoft – are likely to outperform next year but “by a much smaller magnitude.”

He sees higher earnings growth overall for the S&P 500 pushing the index to 6,500 by the end of next year.

Analysts expect earnings growth of 14.2% in 2025 for the entire S&P 500, up from 10.2% this year, according to LSEG.

Following this year’s rally, the S&P 500 is trading at 22.6 times expected earnings, compared with a 10-year average of about 18, according to LSEG.

“We’re not concerned about valuations” because of the expected growth in earnings and the economy, Mary Ann Bartels, chief investment strategist at Sanctuary Wealth said.

Also, she said, the Trump administration may be positive for business.

Worries remain over a potential inflationary rebound, which would change how much the Federal Reserve is able to keep cutting rates.

The Fed embarked on its policy easing cycle with a large half-percentage-point rate cut in September, its first reduction in borrowing costs since 2020.

Some of Trump’s plans, especially those for higher tariffs, could drive up consumer prices. On Monday, Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, pledged big tariffs on the United States’ three largest trading partners – Canada, Mexico and China.

Turmoil in the Middle East is also still a concern for investors.

When asked whether a stock market correction of at least 10% is likely early next year, eight of 17 poll participants who answered an additional question said it is likely and two said it is highly likely. Six said it was unlikely and one said highly unlikely.

Among sectors, financials are up about 35% for the year to date, leading gains among S&P 500 sectors, with technology up 33%.

Bank stocks have benefited in part from prospects for increased merger activity.

Deutsche Bank strategists wrote in an outlook report this week they remain overweight financials “where a multitude of tailwinds are converging.”

The poll has the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI finishing next year at 46,600. The index closed at 44,736.57 on Monday.

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak, Stephen Culp, Sinead Carew, Chibuike Oguh, Alden Bentley, and Noel Randewich; additional polling by Jaiganesh Mahesh and Rahul Trivedi; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

Gold tumbles over 3% on reports of Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, US Treasury pick

Gold prices plunged over 3% on Monday, breaking a five-session rally to its highest in nearly three weeks, as reports of Israel nearing a ceasefire with Hezbollah, coupled with Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent as the US Treasury Secretary soured the precious metal’s safe-haven appeal.

Spot gold fell 3.4% to USD 2,619.66 per ounce by 02:01 p.m. ET (1901 GMT), its biggest daily percentage decline since June 07. US gold futures settled 3.5% lower to USD 2618.50.

Gold prices were primed for a sell-off on buying exhaustion after last week’s rally. Scott Bessent’s Treasury Secretary appointment further took away some of the risk premium associated with the US, said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.

“And even more so, reports that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to terms of an agreement to end the Israel and Hezbollah conflict have pushed gold prices even further (lower).”

Gold is traditionally seen as a safe investment during economic and geopolitical uncertainty such as conventional or trade wars.

Some market participants see Bessent as less negative for a trade war, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Bullion hit its highest since Nov. 6 in early Asian trade following last week’s nearly 6% weekly surge, its best since March 2023, spurred by escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Traders are also gearing up for a pivotal week, with minutes from the Federal Reserve’s November meeting, US GDP revisions, and core PCE data expected to provide insights into the central bank’s policy outlook.

“I still anticipate a 25 bps rate cut in December, but recent Fed speakers have taken on a more cautious tone heading into 2025, which could pose a bit of a headwind for gold,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Spot silver dropped 3.3% to USD 30.28 per ounce, platinum was down 2.6% to USD 938.57 while palladium slipped 3.1% to USD 977.94.

(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese, Rahul Paswan and Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid and Mohammed Safi Shamsi)

US bond market rallies on Trump Treasury pick, short covering

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields declined sharply on Monday as investors expected a more moderate than feared US fiscal trajectory after hedge fund manager Scott Bessent was nominated as US Treasury secretary by President-elect Donald Trump on Friday.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were down by some 15 basis points while two-year yields declined by about 10 points, leading the closely watched curve that compares yields on those two maturities to invert.

Expectations of a widening budget deficit due to tax cuts under Trump’s Republican government have pushed Treasury yields higher over the past few weeks. The choice of Bessent, however, was largely seen by investors as limiting the potentially negative impact of Trump’s policies on US fiscal health as well as putting a lid on expected increases in tariffs.

“He’s a Wall Street guy, he’s very good at what he does, he’s not an extremist to the left or right, he’s a sensible smart businessman, and I think the market likes that, and he’s anti-deficit,” said Tony Farren, managing director at Mischler Financial Group.

Benchmark 10-year yields stood at 4.269%, down from 4.41% on Friday and hitting their lowest since Nov. 6 during the day. Two-year yields, which more closely reflect monetary policy expectations, were at 4.274%, from 4.369% on Friday. Further out, 30-year yields dropped to 4.451%, their lowest since Nov. 7.

The rally was exacerbated by investors closing off short positions – or bets that yields, which move inversely to bond prices, would rise.

“Everyone is offside,” said Thomas Hayes, chairman of Great Hill Capital in New York. “Bessent was the catalyst … the market was at an extreme and Bessent was the ‘excuse’ for it turning around,” he added.

In the week ended on Nov. 19, speculators had increased their net short bets on five-year Treasury futures to the largest on record, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday. Shorts in two-year Treasury futures have also been rising over the past two months.

Contributing to Monday’s bond rally, a USD 69 billion Treasury auction of two-year notes was well received by the market. The notes were sold with a high yield of 4.274%, about two basis points below the market at the bidding deadline, a sign investors were willing to pay up to absorb the issuance.

2/10 CURVE INVERTS

The part of the Treasury yield curve that plots two-year and 10-year yields was slightly inverted, as short-term bonds yielded about 0.5 basis points more than longer ones.

The inversion, the first in over a month, was partly due to the Bessent nomination easing fiscal concerns, Capital Economics said in a note. It added, however, that it expects the curve to steepen going forward, as rate cuts will put downward pressure on short-term yields and fiscal worries will lift longer-dated yields.

For Farren at Mischler, a flattening of the curve was to be expected. “With Trump being president, the Fed is going to be less aggressive,” he said.

On Monday, traders in interest rates futures were assigning a 52.5% probability to a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, down from a 59% probability on Monday last week, CME Group data showed.

Bessent told the Wall Street Journal in an interview published on Sunday he will prioritize delivering on election tax cut pledges, while also focusing on cutting spending and maintaining the status of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

The logic behind Monday’s bond rally was “relatively straightforward” as it was based on a view that Bessent will “keep a leash on deficits and take a thoughtful approach to tariffs,” strategists at BMO Capital Markets said in a note.

“Bessent won’t prevent tariffs from being utilized or borrowing needs from increasing,” they wrote. “It’s simply the perception that both will be approached in a more methodical manner with an adherence to traditional economic policy.”

(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

Wall Street closes higher; small-caps hit record high after Trump nominates Bessent

Wall Street’s main indexes ended higher on Monday, with the small-cap Russell 2000 index hitting an all-time high after Scott Bessent’s nomination as US Treasury secretary helped push bond yields lower.

Focus also turned to talks of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon, which pushed oil prices lower, dragging the Energy index 2% lower.

President-elect Donald Trump ended weeks of speculation when he named his choice late on Friday, with some investment strategists saying Bessent could take measures to restrain further government borrowing, even as he follows through on fiscal and trade campaign pledges.

The nomination of Bessent has eased some of the fiscal concerns about possible new tariffs, which had pushed bond yields higher ahead of the election.

“This time, the focus is on tariff policy – especially now that the choice of Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary seems to have allayed major fiscal concerns,” said James Reilly, senior market economist at market desk Capital Economics.

According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 gained 17.81 points, or 0.30%, to end at 5,987.15 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 51.50 points, or 0.27%, to 19,055.15. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 439.02 points, or 0.99%, to 44,735.53.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 3.01-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 836 new highs and 40 new lows on the NYSE.

The small-cap index .RUT hit an all-time intraday high of 2,466.49, eclipsing the record level it touched three years ago, as Treasury yields dropped sharply, with the 30-year bond leading the yield declines across the board.

“Areas that were lagging for most of this year are beginning to outperform, such as the small-cap and the mid-cap stocks, not just due to Trump, but also due to the Federal Reserve cutting rates,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of 50 Park Investments in New York.

Expectations that Trump, along with a Republican Congress, can make good on his promise of business-friendly policies have been the latest tailwinds for small-cap companies. They have been in the spotlight since the US Federal Reserve commenced its monetary policy easing cycle in September.

Lower yields helped the rate-sensitive real estate sector rise, while the housing index also surged by 4.5%.

Barclays raised its full-year 2025 forecast for the S&P 500, while Deutsche Bank set its target at 7,000 points by the end of 2025.

However, concerns remain that inflationary pressures could spike and slow the pace of the Fed’s policy easing.

Investors have recently swung between expectations of a pause versus a further cut in interest rates at the Fed’s December meeting. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 56.2% probability the central bank will deliver another 25 basis-point cut.

Consumer Discretionary stocks led sectoral gains, aided by Amazon.com’s 2.2% rise.

The Personal Consumption Expenditure report, the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge, will be on investors’ radar later this week, which includes the US Thanksgiving holiday.

Macy’s fell 2.2% after the department-store operator delayed the publication of its third-quarter results due to an accounting issue.

Bath & Body Works raised its forecast for full-year adjusted profit, sending the retailer’s shares up 16.5%.

The S&P 500 posted 106 new 52-week highs and no new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 352 new highs and 66 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was 16.69 billion shares, compared with the 14.93 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Reporting by Saeed Azhar in New York and Johann M Cherian and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel and Matthew Lewis)

Oil falls more than USD 2 a barrel on possible Middle East peace deal

HOUSTON – Oil prices fell more than USD 2 a barrel on Monday after multiple reports that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to the terms of a deal to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, citing unnamed senior US officials.

Brent crude futures settled at USD 73.01 a barrel, down USD 2.16, or 2.87%. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at USD 68.94 a barrel, down USD 2.30 or 3.23%.

Israel said on Monday it is moving toward a ceasefire in the war with Hezbollah but there are still issues to address, while Lebanese officials voiced guarded optimism but said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not to be trusted.

“It seems the news of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is behind the price drop, though no supply has been disrupted due to the conflict between the two countries and the risk premium in oil has been low already before the latest price decline,” said Giovanni Staunovo of UBS.

Oil markets are being pushed up and down on rising or falling supply disruption fears, Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said in a Monday note.

“A report that Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu approves Lebanon ceasefire deal in principle could be a bearish catalyst, yet we must see more details as they become available. Last week the world was stunned as Russia launched supersonic missiles” at Ukraine, Flynn wrote in his energy report.

Both Brent and US WTI contracts last week notched their biggest weekly gains since late September to reach their highest settlement levels since Nov. 7 after Russia fired a hypersonic missile at Ukraine in a warning to the United States and the UK following strikes by Ukraine on Russia using US and British weapons.

OPEC+, at its next meeting on Sunday, may consider leaving its current oil output cuts in place from Jan. 1, Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov told Reuters.

The group, which includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies like Russia, has postponed hikes this year amid demand worries.

Azerbaijan is a member of OPEC+, which will meet online on Dec. 1.

(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston, Additional Reporting by Enes Tunagur in London, Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru, Gabrielle Ng, and Florence Tan; Editing by Susan Fenton, Jonathan Oatis, Will Dunham, and Chris Reese)

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