Investors look to jobs data to support rate-cut path, pricey stock market

NEW YORK – Next week’s US jobs data may need to tread a fine line for Wall Street, revealing a cooling labor market that supports further interest rate cuts without fueling fears about a recession.

While stocks have edged lower this week, US equity indexes remain near record highs after a relentless rally that has put the benchmark S&P 500 on pace for its best third-quarter performance since 2020.

Some investors say the market’s ascent is making stocks vulnerable to any disappointments. Complicating the release of the jobs data is the potential for a US government shutdown next week that, should it come to pass, could mean the employment report is not released as scheduled next Friday.

The jobs data will help show whether the labor market is “simply experiencing a soft patch,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

“Nobody is expecting to see a blockbuster number here,” Luschini said. “At the same time, were it to come in negative, it would confirm suspicions that perhaps the labor market is deteriorating rather rapidly, which obviously begs the question, could we actually be at the throes of a potential recession?”

The report is expected to show non-farm payrolls rose by 39,000 in September, according to a Reuters poll of economists, after an increase of 22,000 the prior month. The unemployment rate is estimated to be 4.3%.

The Federal Reserve this month cut interest rates for the first time this year after signs of struggle in the labor market. The central bank is expected to enact another standard quarter-percentage point rate reduction at its next meeting at the end of October and perhaps one more at its last meeting of the year in December.

Expectations of such monetary easing, including more cuts in 2026, have helped drive the latest leg of a rally in which the S&P 500 has posted 25 record closing highs over the past three months.

With inflation still elevated, however, investors are wary that a strong employment report could lead the Fed to slow down its pace of cuts. The Fed raised rates from March 2022 to July 2023 to get inflation under control.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week said near-term inflation risks were “tilted to the upside” as he noted a “challenging situation” facing the central bank.

“What people are looking for is if jobs come in a lot more benign…are we looking at just maybe one cut or no cuts for the rest of the year?” said Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at retirement and wealth services provider Empower.

Ahead of the jobs data next week is a deadline for congressional Democrats and Republicans to come to an agreement to fund the government and avoid a partial shutdown. While investors have tended to shrug off past shutdowns, such an event this time could cause more angst in markets.

One factor is elevated stock valuations, with the S&P 500 now on track for its third-straight year of double-digit percentage gains.

The index was last trading at 22.8 times expected 12-month earnings for its constituents, according to LSEG Datastream. That is around its highest level in five years and well above its 10-year average of 18.7.

“Valuations are at extremes,” Norton said. “It means a low immune system for any sort of risk that’s out there.”

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Jamie Freed)

Dollar holds gains as attention turns to spending data for Fed clues

TOKYO – The dollar held on to steep gains on Friday after better-than-forecast US data dampened expectations for further easing by the Federal Reserve this year.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against major peers, climbed 0.6% in the previous session after figures on US economic growth, unemployment claims, durable goods, and wholesale inventories all beat expectations.

The yen traded at an eight-week low following a new raft of tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump. Attention now turns to Friday’s release of US consumer spending data for signals of how urgently the economy needs additional stimulus from the Fed.

“Markets are reading through to this, and you can see a few basis points pared off of the lower rate forecasts,” said Gavin Friend, senior markets strategist at National Australia Bank. “I think when you do see numbers like we saw on Thursday, you say, well, where’s the fire?”

The dollar index was steady at 98.473, near a three-week high and on course for a 0.8% rise this week.

The greenback was flat at 149.81 yen after nearly breaking through the 150 mark for the first time since August 1. The euro stood at USD 1.1665 after a 0.6% slide on Thursday.

Markets are now pricing in an 87.7% chance of a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut from the Fed in October, down from 90%-92% odds indicated on Wednesday.

The Commerce Department reported that US gross domestic product rose by an upwardly revised rate of 3.8% from April through June, higher than the 3.3% initially reported. Economists polled by Reuters did not expect the rate to be revised.

Friday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase for August and a 2.7% year-on-year rise, according to a Reuters poll.

“At a time when Fed members are worried about elevated inflation, we think such a report will be encouraging,” said Bansi Madhavani, senior economist at ANZ. “So long as inflation impulse signals that this inflation trend is intact, we expect the Fed can continue to ease in gradual increments of 25 basis points.”

In Tokyo, where the central bank is on a tightening cycle, data showed core inflation in September in the capital stayed well above the central bank’s 2% target, keeping alive expectations of a near-term interest rate hike.

And just when bilateral trade deals had started to ease concerns about the impact of US tariffs, Trump announced a broad range of new import duties, including 100% on branded drugs, 25% on heavy-duty trucks, and 50% on kitchen cabinets.

(Reporting by Rocky Swift in Tokyo; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

Stocks struggle as Trump slaps new tariffs, Fed cut bets unwind

SINGAPORE – Asia shares got off to a shaky start on Friday after US President Donald Trump unveiled a fresh round of punishing tariffs and as traders pared bets of sharp US rate cuts following stronger-than-expected economic data.

Trump on Thursday announced that the US would impose 100% duties on imported branded drugs, 25% tariffs on heavy-duty trucks, and 50% tariffs on kitchen cabinets.

He also said he would start charging a 50% tariff on bathroom vanities and a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture next week, with all the new duties to take effect from October 1.

Japan’s Topix pharmaceutical index slid 1.4% in the wake of the news, while shares of Australian biotech firm CSL tumbled more than 3%.

The Nikkei fell 0.5%, while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.45%.

“At this point of time, it sort of adds to a bit of a shaky backdrop we’ve got in terms of risk assets,” said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG.

Nasdaq futures were down 0.08% while S&P 500 futures ESc1 dipped 0.02%.

European futures meanwhile eked out gains, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures up 0.37% while FTSE futures rose 0.25%.

Also adding to headwinds for stocks were reduced expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, after a slew of data on Thursday showed the US economy remains in rude health.

“(The) data deluge… gives the US economy a new lease on life,” said economists at Wells Fargo in a note.

“Ultimately the updated GDP figures suggest the US economy was undeniably resilient in the first half of the year despite the on-again off-again approach to US trade policy.”

Traders are pricing in just about 39 basis points worth of rate cuts by December this year, down from over 40 bps earlier this week.

Focus will now be on PCE data due later on Friday, which could provide further clarity on the outlook for rates.

“There was some bullish optimism built into markets, because everybody started thinking we’re going to get somewhere between four and six rate cuts, and now I think we’re probably looking at four at most, and maybe even that seems a bit generous at this point of time into the end of 2026,” said IG’s Sycamore.

While most Fed policymakers continue to strike a cautious tone on the pace of future easing, the central bank’s newest policymaker, Stephen Miran, on Thursday pressed for sharp US interest-rate cuts to prevent labour market collapse.

The reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts have in turn lifted the dollar, which hovered close to the 150 yen level on Friday.

The euro last bought USD 1.1668, having lost 0.6% in the previous session, while sterling was little changed at USD 1.3344.

In commodities, oil prices rose on Friday, with Brent crude futures up 0.24% to USD 69.59 a barrel, while US crude rose 0.43% to USD 65.26 per barrel.

Trump said on Thursday he believes Turkey will agree to his request to stop purchasing Russian oil and that he may lift US sanctions on Ankara so it can buy advanced American F-35 jets, following two hours of talks with Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan.

Spot gold edged slightly higher to USD 3,751.69 an ounce.

(Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Sam Holmes)

Wall Street indexes finish lower, data raises uncertainty for rate-cut outlook

NEW YORK – US stocks ended moderately lower on Thursday, with most S&P 500 sectors down as economic data increased uncertainty over the outlook for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Data showed initial jobless claims dropped 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ended September 20. Other data showed the US economy grew faster than previously estimated in the second quarter amid strong consumer spending and business investment.

Also, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday he was uneasy with cutting rates too quickly, with inflation a risk.

The comments and data follow the US central bank’s move last week to lower rates by 25 basis points – its first cut since December – after signs of weakness in the labor market. It also gave indications of more rate cuts ahead. Investor expectations of another 25 bps cut in the Fed’s October meeting are now at 83.4%, down from about 92% on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

“The economic data that’s come out over the last day or two is kind of confusing in that, in my mind, it calls into question” how much the Fed may cut rates again and whether the Fed needs to cut rates again this year, said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.

Investors are bracing for Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.

Most of the S&P 500 sectors ended lower, but energy gained 0.9% and technology eked out a 0.03% increase as shares of Intel jumped 8.9%. The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that Intel has approached Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company 2330.TW about investments in manufacturing or partnerships.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 173.96 points, or 0.38%, to 45,947.32, the S&P 500 lost 33.25 points, or 0.50%, to 6,604.72, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 113.16 points, or 0.50%, to 22,384.70.

Among decliners, CarMax shares fell 20.1% after the used-car retailer reported lower second-quarter profit.

In addition, shares of Accenture were down 2.7% even after the consulting firm reported revenue above expectations.

Investors are eager to hear soon from more companies on their quarterly results, especially with valuations considered high after the market’s run of record highs recently.

“Historically, we’re certainly at the high end” of valuations, said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments, a family investment office in New Vernon, New Jersey. “One big positive is it seems like the government is going to let big tech get bigger.”

Next week brings the all-important monthly US jobs report.

Monetary policymakers are not unanimous on the proper way forward with rates, with Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s recent Fed appointee, continuing to push for accelerated policy easing.

Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the US central bank needs to balance inflation concerns with a weakening job market in its coming interest rate decisions.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 3.11-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 110 new highs and 109 new lows on the NYSE.

On the Nasdaq, 1,166 stocks rose and 3,502 fell as declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 3-to-1 ratio. Volume on US exchanges was 19.58 billion shares, compared with the 17.99 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Additional reporting by Niket Nishant, Sukriti Gupta, and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar and Aurora Ellis)

Gold slips from record peak; markets eye US economic data

Gold prices eased on Wednesday as the US dollar firmed, retreating from a record high scaled in the previous session, while investors hunkered down for economic data due later in the week for further cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Spot gold fell 0.8% to USD 3,734.58 per ounce, as of 01:56 p.m. ET (1756 GMT), after hitting a record high of USD 3,790.82 on Tuesday.

US gold futures for December delivery settled 1.2% lower at USD 3,768.1.

The US dollar index rose about 0.6%, making dollar-priced bullion more expensive for other currency holders. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also drifted higher.

“Gold is still digesting some of the commentary coming out of the Federal Reserve yesterday and also geopolitical tensions with Russia… It’s slightly cautious ahead of some economic data coming out,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday offered no new clues on the future course of interest rates, stressing that the central bank must carefully balance the risks of stubborn inflation against a slowing job market.

Markets are pricing in two additional 25-basis-point rate cuts this year — one in October with a 94% probability and another in December with a 77% probability, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Focus is now on Thursday’s weekly US jobless claims data and Friday’s release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

On the geopolitical front, Ukraine’s military said on Wednesday it struck two oil pumping stations overnight in Russia’s Volgograd region.

Safe-haven gold becomes more attractive during periods of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. It also tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment as it is a non-yielding asset.

Spot silver fell 0.4% to USD 43.84 per ounce. Platinum fell 0.7% to USD 1,468.44, and palladium lost 0.7% to USD 1,211.45.

(Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; additional reporting by Kavya Balaraman; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar, Shailesh Kuber, and Shinjini Ganguli)

Dollar strengthens against euro and yen after Powell’s cautious rate outlook

NEW YORK/LONDON – The US dollar gained against the yen, Swiss franc and euro on Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone on further easing overnight, while the New Zealand dollar eased following the appointment of a new central bank chief.

The dollar strengthened 0.46% to 0.795 against the Swiss franc, on track to snap two consecutive sessions of losses.

The euro was lower against the dollar after German business morale fell unexpectedly in September. It was last down 0.67% at USD 1.1736 after rising for the last two sessions. Sterling declined 0.68% to USD 1.3431. It was steady against the euro, at 87.34 pence.

INFLATION AND JOBS MARKET IN FOCUS

“The dollar is a little firmer broadly against most of the G10 although it is still choppy and range bound,” said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street in Boston.

“Based on our flows and holdings data, the dollar is still very underweight kind of within the real money community so I think it’s due for a period of consolidation and that’s ultimately what it’s doing.”

Powell maintained a cautious tone on Tuesday, saying the Fed needed to continue balancing the competing risks of high inflation and a weakening job market in coming rate decisions.

Markets are expecting quarter-point rate cuts at the remaining two Fed meetings this year and another in the first quarter of 2026, in line with the central bank’s guidance after last week’s meeting.

This week’s US data will be in focus, particularly Friday’s release of the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key input for shaping expectations on the Fed’s next policy steps.

“We are still data point-to-point with regard to the Fed, and that’s going to be the catalyst for rates and the dollar in terms of determining how aggressive or hawkish the market starts to view the Fed,” Loh added.

The US dollar index =USD, which measures the currency against six major rivals, added 0.65% at 97.87, attempting to claw back ground after two straight losing sessions.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak later in the day.

NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR

Candidates for the next leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party answered journalists’ questions on Wednesday. Frontrunner Sanae Takaichi, a fiscal and monetary dove, said monetary policy was up to the Bank of Japan but higher rates could affect mortgages and corporate investment.

Against the yen, the dollar added 0.75% to 148.73 yen, hitting its highest in three weeks and set to snap three straight sessions of losses.

New Zealand’s dollar traded down 0.72% at USD 0.5814 after Swedish central banker Anna Breman was named as the next Reserve Bank governor, becoming the first woman in the role.

The Australian dollar weakened 0.17% versus the greenback to USD 0.6587. Data showed that inflation climbed more than expected to 3% in August, less than a week before the Reserve Bank’s next policy meeting.

(Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York; Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Amanda Cooper, Ed Osmond, and Alison Williams)

Stocks break AI-driven rally; Powell’s caution tempers U.S. yields

NEW YORK – Wall Street stock indexes broke a three-day string of artificial intelligence-fueled records on Tuesday, and US Treasury yields slid after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated a cautious approach to the next US interest rate decision.

The central bank head offered few hints as to when the Fed might repeat last week’s move to cut interest rates, and emphasized how delicate the balance is between balancing the threat of inflation and signs of weakness in the labor market.

Tech stocks closed down after posting record closing highs in each of the last three sessions. Nvidia’s shares fell 2.8% the day after the chipmaker shook up markets and reached its own record high stock price on plans to invest in OpenAI.

The Nasdaq Composite led declines, falling 0.95%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.19%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.55%.

The market is digesting the fact that the economy has shown resilience, but data has been inconsistent, “and is now dipping to more of a slowdown,” said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors in New York.

“With this being the third year of double-digit returns for the S&P 500, there needs to be another strong catalyst to move stocks materially higher. And right now, it is not clear what that catalyst can be,” Pursche said.

Shares in Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple were also lower.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks in 49 countries fell 0.3%.

Investors’ antennas had been up for signals from Powell on future rate cuts. After his speech on Tuesday, they fractionally shifted their expectations of a 25 basis point cut in October to 94% chance, from 89.8% on Monday. CME’s Fedwatch tool now indicates a 5.9% chance of a pause.

YIELDS DOWN, GOLD SOARS

Treasury yields, which influence borrowing costs, declined.

The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes fell 3.9 basis points to 4.106%, from 4.145% late on Monday. It had hit its highest level since September 5 during that session.

The 2-year bond yield, which typically moves in step with expectations for rate moves from the Fed, fell 1.3 basis points to 3.588%, from 3.601% late on Monday.

Gold basked in its safe-haven status to hit record highs, with the spot price last quoted up 0.47% to USD 3,763.82 an ounce.

Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone, said investors were hedging their exposure to stocks by buying gold.

Global equities have been supported by expectations of further Fed rate cuts after it eased policy last week.

“The markets are sanguine in this ‘everything rally,’ awaiting more evidence that further Fed easing will steer the economy away from any hard landings,” BNY head of markets macro strategy Bob Savage said in a note.

Markets have stayed dovish despite mixed messaging from the Fed itself.

Before the chair’s speech, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman largely dismissed inflation risks and said rates may need to come down faster to support the labor market.

New Fed Governor Stephen Miran called for sharp rate cuts on Monday, while three colleagues urged caution on inflation.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was little changed at 97.24.

Oil settled up more than USD 1 a barrel after a deal to resume exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan stalled. This reduced some concerns about oversupply.

(Reporting by Isla Binnie in New York, Tom Wilson in London and Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Stephen Coates)

Gold surges to new peak on safe-haven demand, Fed rate cut bets

Gold prices climbed to a fresh record high on Tuesday, aided by safe haven flows amid geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Spot gold rose 0.8% to USD 3,777.80 per ounce as of 01:45 p.m. ET (1745 GMT), after hitting a fresh record high of USD 3,790.82 earlier in the session.

US gold futures for December delivery settled 1.1% higher at USD 3,815.7.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 0.2%, while the US dollar was largely steady.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank faces a “challenging situation” with ongoing risks of faster-than-expected inflation while weak job growth raises concerns about labor market health.He offered little clarity on when the Fed might next cut interest rates.

“The gold market recognized that there was nothing significant in his speech compared to the tone set last week, nothing significant enough to change the upside path in gold,” said RJO Futures market strategist Bob Haberkorn.

Traders still expect US rate cuts in October and December after the Fed reduced rates by 25 basis points earlier this month.

Attention now shifts to Friday’s release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

Meanwhile, NATO warned Russia that it would use “all necessary military and non-military tools” to defend itself as it condemned Moscow for violating Estonian airspace in “a pattern of increasingly irresponsible behaviour”.

Strong buying interest from ETF investors – driven by expectations of rate cuts, concerns around the Fed’s independence and geopolitical developments – are also likely giving gold prices a boost, Commerzbank said in a note.

The People’s Bank of China is leveraging the Shanghai Gold Exchange to encourage central banks from friendly nations to purchase and store bullion within its borders, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Spot silver rose 0.2% to USD 44.17 per ounce, hovering near a 14-year high. Meanwhile, Platinum rose 4.5% to USD 1,480.97, its highest level since 2014 and palladium rose 2.8% to USD 1,212.

(Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo and Tasim Zahid)

Gold hits record high as traders bet on US rate cuts, eye Powell’s signal

Gold prices climbed to a record high on Tuesday, supported by growing expectations of further US rate cuts and a slightly weaker dollar, with investors awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for additional policy insights.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold was up 0.2% at USD 3,752.43 per ounce, as of 0123 GMT, after hitting a record high of USD 3,758.03 earlier in the session.

* US gold futures for December delivery climbed 0.3% to USD 3,787.60.

* The US dollar index was down 0.1%, making greenback-priced gold cheaper for overseas buyers.

* Investors are closely awaiting Powell’s speech, due at 1635 GMT, for signals on the central bank’s policy, alongside remarks from other Fed officials this week.

* New Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said on Monday that the Fed is misreading how tight it has set monetary policy and will put the job market at risk without aggressive rate cuts, a view countered in remarks by three of his colleagues who feel the central bank needs to remain cautious about inflation.

* Last week, the US central bank cut rates by 25 basis points, citing labour market conditions and indicated more cuts would come at its upcoming meetings, but also warned about sticky inflation.

* According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors see a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October and a 75% chance of another in December.

* SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.60% to 1,000.57 tons on Monday from 994.56 tons on Friday.

* Safe-haven gold, which typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment has risen nearly 43% this year, driven by broader geopolitical and economic uncertainty, central bank buying, and monetary policy easing.

* Spot silver fell 0.2% to USD 43.98 per ounce, hovering near a 14-year high. Platinum gained 0.3% to USD 1,420.45 and palladium rose 0.9% to USD 1,189.84.

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)
0715	France HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI September
0730	Germany HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI September
0800	EU HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI September
0830	UK Flash Composite, Manufacturing, Services PMI September
1345	US S&P Global Mfg, Svcs, Comp PMI Flash September

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Ishaan Arora; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

US tech shares hold steady after Trump unveils USD 100,000 H-1B visa fee

US tech shares were little changed on Monday after President Donald Trump announced a USD 100,000 one-time fee for H-1B visas, part of his immigration crackdown that has raised concerns about higher labor costs and limited access to skilled workers.

The H-1B program allows US employers to hire foreign workers in specialty fields such as technology and engineering, and higher fees threaten to raise labor costs for tech companies that depend heavily on this talent pipeline.

Over 70% of these visas went to Indian nationals last year, US data showed. During Trump’s first term, the administration tightened visa approvals and raised scrutiny of applications, moves that drew lawsuits from industry groups.

Analysts said the impact should be moderate, given that the fees apply only to new applications, but warned that a constrained supply of skilled workers in the US may push wages higher and squeeze margins.

Amazon, Google parent Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft are consistently among the top corporate sponsors of H-1B visas, data shows, underscoring their dependence on foreign engineers and developers to fuel growth in areas such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence.

Shares of Cognizant Technology Solutions, JP Morgan, and Intel, which rank among the biggest sponsors of H-1B visas, were trading between down 1.7% and up 1.9%.

“The H1B fee will constrain talent supply in the US, which in turn will drive up demand for locals or green card holders. IT firms will have to pay these employees more or risk losing them,” Jefferies analysts said in a note.

“The talent supply crunch will drive up onsite wages, which could drag profits by 4-13%.”

Industry lobby groups, including India’s Nasscom and the US Chamber of Commerce, are expected to push back, arguing the fees will hurt innovation and discourage global talent from seeking jobs in the United States, analysts said.

INDIAN IT STOCKS HIT

Indian IT workers make up the bulk of H-1B applicants, and while Indian IT companies have long benefited from US work visa programs, they now face the prospect of higher costs and slower revenue growth.

Indian IT stocks slid on Monday, with the tech sub-index dropping nearly 3% and dragging the broader Nifty 50 index down.

US-listed shares of Infosys and Wipro were up 1% and down 0.5% respectively.

“We believe this will essentially shut out new H-1B visas except in extreme cases for Indian IT companies, as USD100K increment is nearly double their median salaries and doesn’t make economic sense,” Ambit Capital analysts said.

(Reporting by Samuel Indyk in London and Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Amanda Cooper and Anil D’Silva)

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