Oil prices settle pennies higher, down for week as Trump touts energy policy

HOUSTON – Oil prices settled slightly higher on Friday but posted a weekly decline, ending four straight weeks of gains, after US President Donald Trump announced sweeping plans to boost domestic production while demanding that OPEC move to lower crude prices.

Brent crude futures settled up 21 cents, or 0.27%, to USD 78.50 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled up 4 cents, or 0.05%, to USD 74.66.

Brent has lost 2.8% this week while WTI was down 4.1%.

Trump on Friday reiterated his call for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut oil prices to hurt oil-rich Russia’s finances and help bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

“One way to stop it quickly is for OPEC to stop making so much money and drop the price of oil … that war will stop right away,” Trump said as he landed in North Carolina to view storm damage.

The threat of harsh US sanctions on Russia and Iran, which are key oil producers, could undermine Trump’s goal of lowering energy costs, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said in a note on Friday.

“Trump knows this and has leaned on OPEC to cover the void that these will create,” Hodes said.

On Thursday, Trump told the World Economic Forum he would demand that OPEC and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, bring down crude prices.

OPEC+, which includes Russia, has yet to react, with delegates from the group pointing to a plan already in place to start raising oil output from April.

“I don’t really expect OPEC will change policy unless there is a change in fundamentals,” UBS commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. “Markets will be relatively muted until we get more clarity on sanctions policy and tariffs.”

TARIFFS

Chevron said on Friday it had started production at a USD 48 billion expansion of the giant Tengiz oilfield, which will bring its output to around 1% of global crude supply, and could further pressure OPEC’s efforts in the last few years to limit production.

Trump declared a national energy emergency on Monday, rolling back environmental restrictions on energy infrastructure as part of his plans to maximize domestic oil and gas production.

These rollbacks could support oil demand but have the potential to exacerbate oversupply, said Nikos Tzabouras, senior market specialist at trading platform Tradu.

Trump’s policies so far have largely followed predictions on the supply side, including cutting red tape to promote domestic supply growth, according to StoneX’s Hodes. However “the lower hanging fruit for growth has already been picked.”

The US president vowed on Wednesday to hit the European Union with tariffs and impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. He also said his administration was considering a 10% punitive duty on China.

As attention shifts to a possible February timeline for new tariffs, caution is likely to persist in the market, given potential negative implications for global growth and oil demand prospects, said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG. Traders expect oil prices to range between USD 76.50 and USD 78 a barrel, he added.

While bullish catalysts such as a significant drawdown in US crude stocks are providing temporary positive swings, an over-supplied global market and projections of ailing Chinese demand continue to weigh on crude futures, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova.

US crude inventories last week hit their lowest level since March 2022, the US Energy Information Administration said.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, Nandita Bose in Asheville, North Carolina, Anna Hirtenstein; additional reporting by Laila Kearney, Gabrielle Ng, and Paul Carsten; Editing by David Goodman, Louise Heavens, David Evans, Paul Simao, and David Gregorio)

Fed’s rate-cut view set to test resurgent US stocks rally

NEW YORK – The Federal Reserve’s first meeting of 2025 stands to test the resurgence in US stocks as investors gauge the extent of more equity-friendly interest rate cuts in the months ahead.

Stocks swooned after the Fed’s last meeting in December, when the central bank downgraded its forecast for rate cuts as it braced for firmer inflation this year.

Since then, monthly data that showed underlying inflation moderated set off relief on Wall Street, helping drive a rebound in stocks with the benchmark S&P 500 hitting a record high this week.

The Fed is broadly expected to pause its easing cycle when it gives its monetary policy statement on Wednesday, with investors instead focused on “what would need to happen for them to start talking about resuming the rate cuts,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.

Given recent data indicating strong economic activity, Kourkafas said, “there’s wide expectations that the Fed has no urgency to continue cutting until we get potentially more encouraging inflation data.”

The Fed’s benchmark rate stands at 4.25% to 4.5% after the central bank lowered it by a full percentage point last year. The Fed’s easing cycle began after rate hikes had helped bring down inflation from 40-year highs, although it remains above the Fed’s 2% annual target.

Fed funds futures are pricing in about 40 basis points more of easing — or nearly two more cuts — by December, according to LSEG data.

Morgan Stanley economists expect Fed Chair Jerome Powell will keep the possibility of a cut at the Fed’s March meeting “on the table.”

“If we are right in our assessment of the incoming data flow, then we think the Fed can stay on hold in January and retain its easing bias,” the Morgan Stanley economists said in a note.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said on Thursday he wants the Fed to cut rates, even as the central bank is expected to pause for an uncertain duration.

Stocks have started the year strongly, with the S&P 500 up about 4% so far in January, following back-to-back years of gains of over 20%.

Investors this week digested a flood of activity by Trump after his second term began on Monday, including his announcement of private sector investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure that propelled a broad tech stock rally.

Some investors were surprised that Trump has not yet moved to enact new tariffs on foreign imports, a key part of his expected agenda that could set off broad market volatility. The president, however, is threatening an array of tariffs, which continues to keep investors on edge about the potential to increase inflation.

With the Fed meeting for the first time since Trump’s presidency, the possibility of tariffs could factor into the central bank’s outlook, said Larry Werther, chief US economist of Daiwa Capital Markets America.

“If there’s any hint that the Fed is perhaps taking a more solid view on tariffs… and it’s unfavorable how they’re viewing it with respect to potential inflationary pressures, I think it could potentially be a negative for equities,” Werther said.

Stocks will also take their cues in the coming week from a slew of earnings results, especially from megacap tech companies. Reports are due from Apple, Microsoft, Facebook owner Meta Platforms, and Tesla — four of the “Magnificent Seven” companies whose shares have led equity indexes higher over the past two years.

The Magnificent Seven in general have put up stronger earnings growth than the rest of the S&P 500, but their valuations are also higher. The group trades at an average forward price-to-earnings ratio of 43 times expected 12-month earnings, and a median of 31.5 times, compared to 22 times for the S&P 500, according to LSEG data.

“If we start to see the Mag 7 struggle to meet some of these lofty expectations, we wouldn’t be surprised to see if the valuations take a meaningful hit,” said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede.

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by David Gregorio)

European earnings may keep the mood sweet as tariff fears grow

LONDON – European companies are set to deliver a third straight quarter of profit growth, which may help to maintain newfound investor enthusiasm for the region despite political and economic turmoil and concerns over US President Donald Trump’s tariffs threat.

European stocks are trading at record highs, having outperformed Wall Street in the opening weeks of 2025, yet valuations are still rock bottom in comparison.

Investor cash has poured into the European market at the second-fastest pace in 25 years in January, according to Bank of America, even before Trump assumed the presidency and the first European company earnings began to trickle in.

Analysts are cautious, having chopped their estimates for fourth-quarter earnings growth to 1.5% from the previous year – or 4.9% excluding energy – down from an estimated 2.5% just two weeks ago, according to data from LSEG.

This would still mark the third consecutive quarter of expansion with forecasts showing both profit and sales growth for the first time since the first quarter of 2023.

“There is a high chance that if companies exceed expectations during the reporting season, share prices could rise. The potential for upside is greater than the downside,” said Matthieu Dulguerov, head of equities at REYL Intesa Sanpaolo.

However, with Trump threatening to impose tariffs on European Union imports, and political and economic uncertainty wracking the euro zone’s growth engines – France and Germany – the mood is tense.

“We think European management teams will err on the side of caution and give wide ranges considering the uncertainty and previous difficult years in Europe,” said Bernie Ahkong, CIO Global Multi-Strategy Alpha at UBS O’Connor. He cited the uncertainty around the new US administration, the Chinese economy, a key market for European exporters, and geopolitics.

Luxury bellwether LVMH reports on Tuesday, Dutch computer chip equipment maker ASML on Wednesday, and Deutsche Bank the following day. Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk reports the week after.

LOWER BAR, EASIER BEATS

It’s early days for earnings, but already, Swiss luxury giant Richemont’s shares recorded their biggest daily rise in 16 years on Jan. 16 after fourth-quarter sales smashed expectations.

The latest surveys of business activity show the euro zone’s three largest economies – Germany, France and Italy – are stuck in an industrial recession, lagging global surveys, which have been driven by a strong US economy, thereby cushioning European earnings.

Another factor that has given European stocks a tailwind is the euro, which has lost some 4.5% in the last year.

“Many believe Europe is facing economic challenges and will have lower growth compared to the US However, most European companies are not heavily reliant on European economic growth as they operate globally,” said Dulguerov.

Goldman Sachs strategists estimate that 60% of European company revenues come from outside Europe.

European shares are trading near their largest discount on record to the S&P 500 index, at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of around 13.3, compared with 21.6 for US stocks, according to LSEG Datastream.

Many of these factors are already baked into investors’ assumptions, and for Ahkong, the commentary around full-year guidance will be key for his team taking a strong view on specific sectors.

Investors will be poring over company announcements for any clarity on the impact of Trump’s policies on results.

On Monday, Lanxess shares jumped 5.1% after the German specialty chemicals maker said it expected its fourth-quarter core profit to exceed market expectations by more than 20%, largely due to pre-buying by US customers ahead of Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration, given his threats on tariffs.

(Reporting by Lucy Raitano; Editing by Amanda Cooper and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

Japan’s Nikkei tracks Wall Street higher as BOJ decision looms

TOKYO – Japan’s Nikkei share average rose in early trading on Friday, buoyed by a record close for US stocks overnight.

Gains came despite a widely expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan later in the day.

The Nikkei added 0.3% to 40,076.88 as of 0014 GMT, with 159 of the index’s 225 components rising, versus 64 that fell and two that were flat.

The broader Topix advanced 0.2%.

On Thursday, the US S&P 500 climbed 0.5% to mark its first closing record since Dec. 6.

There is not a set time for the BOJ decision, but it tends to come after 0230 GMT, which is when Japanese markets close for the midday recess.

“The BOJ has gone to pains to guide the market towards this hike and has expressly said it wouldn’t do it if the markets were volatile at the time of the meeting,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

“It’s very unlikely the BOJ would pull the rug from underneath the market, considering all the conditions have been met for the central bank to hike.”

(Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Alan Barona)

Dollar dips after Trump comments as markets eye tariffs, central banks

NEW YORK – The dollar was modestly lower on Thursday in a choppy session, after comments from US President Donald Trump called for lower interest rates while providing no clarity on tariffs, and investors awaited a round of policy announcements from global central banks.

The dollar is down more than 1% on the week, largely due to a sharp drop on Monday as widely expected tariff announcements from Trump failed to materialize after his inauguration. The dollar has moved only slightly in the sessions since.

The greenback swung between gains and losses on the day as Trump demanded the world drop interest rates in a speech to global business and political leaders in Davos, Switzerland. He also warned they will face tariffs should they make their products anywhere but the US

Despite frequently mentioning tariffs, Trump again declined to give specifics of any duties he intends to put in place.

“We don’t have any truly certain information to go off of, so until we have a definitive answer, we’ll continue to see a little more volatility,” said David Eng, Investment Adviser at Sonora Wealth Group in Vancouver.

“It seems like the markets are more concerned about rate cuts and any kind of greater indicator that there’ll be more rate cuts.”

Investors are awaiting a host of policy decisions from global central banks over the next week, with the Bank of Japan widely expected to raise interest rates at the end of a two-day meeting on Friday.

Rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday of next week, respectively.

Markets are pricing in a nearly 96% chance the ECB will cut rates at its meeting, with recent comments from the central bank’s policymakers indicating a cut was likely.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, shed 0.19% to 108.06, with the euro up 0.14% at USD 1.0422.

The greenback tumbled 1.2% on Monday in its steepest one-day slide since November 2023, as Trump’s first day in office came with a slew of executive orders but no tariffs.

The dollar had climbed to a more than two-year high of 110.17 on Jan. 13 on a resilient US economy and expectations of widespread US tariffs, which could weigh on the currencies of other countries.

Data on Thursday showed new applications for US unemployment benefits rose marginally last week, suggesting that solid job growth likely continued in January.

Trump said this week that his administration was looking into imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China on Feb. 1, after he earlier said Mexico and Canada could face levies of around 25% by that date. He also promised duties on European imports, without providing details.

On Monday Trump signed a trade memo ordering federal agencies to review a range of trade issues by April 1, which many market participants believe will be a key date in revealing tariff plans.

Sterling strengthened 0.31% to USD 1.2354. The Mexican peso strengthened 0.92% versus the dollar to 20.329.

The Canadian dollar gained 0.16% to C$ 1.435 per dollar. Canada’s central bank is largely expected to cut rates at its policy meeting next week after inflation data earlier this week came in below its target rate of 2%.

The Japanese yen firmed 0.33% against the greenback to 155.99. The dollar edged up 0.06% to 7.282 versus the offshore Chinese yuan.

China announced plans on Thursday to channel hundreds of billions of yuan of investment from state-owned insurers into shares.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Mark Heinrich and Nia Williams)

Emerging economies facing “sudden stop” of capital flows, JPMorgan warns

LONDON – Emerging markets could be seeing a dreaded “sudden stop” of capital flows as President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ policies pump up the US economy and suck money away from poorer countries, investment bank JPMorgan warned on Thursday.

Analysts fear sudden stops in capital flows because they starve economies of the money they need to grow or even just keep going.

JPMorgan’s in-house indications show there were USD 19 billion worth of “net capital outflows” from developing economies not including China in the last quarter, with another USD 10 billion expected to flee in Q1.

“Put simply, using the widely accepted academic definition, this would signal that EM ex-China is on the verge of a sudden stop,” the bank said in a research note, adding that the phenomenon was not something “to be taken lightly”.

There are some caveats for now.

The current slowdown in capital flows is not being driven by an EM-centric event, but rather the tightening of financial conditions globally as Trump’s tariffs and tax cut pledges raise the possibility that US interest rates stay higher for longer.

With this in mind, “this is not a situation where specific EM countries are under pressure and are facing balance of payments or currency pressures as was the case in 1998-2002, 2013, 2015,” JPMorgan added.

Nor was it a case of weak US economy driving a “risk-off” worldwide sell-off. “Rather, it is one of a strong US economy and policy risks pulling flows out of EM,” analysts wrote.

How the situation plays out from here will depend on what Trump does and whether key US data on jobs, inflation, and retail sales prove strong enough to affect the Fed’s interest rate moves, JPMorgan said.

Even if a sudden stop does take hold in EM, most economies should be able to absorb that shock. JPMorgan said those most at risk were Romania, Malaysia, South Africa, and Hungary.

(Reporting by Marc Jones in London; Editing by Nia Williams)

China stocks edge up on Beijing’s plan for insurers to buy mainland shares

HONG KONG – Chinese stocks ended slightly higher on Thursday, supported by the financial sector, while Hong Kong shares closed down, as investors digested Beijing’s latest plans to encourage insurance companies to purchase shares listed on the mainland.

The blue-chip CSI300 index was up 0.2% and the Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.5% at the close, giving up most of its early gains.

Insurance firms, banks, and the broader financial sector outperformed, rising 3.5%, 2.3% and 1.9%, respectively.

China announced further measures on Wednesday to bolster its stock market.

Under the plan jointly released by six financial regulators including the securities regulator, big state-owned insurance companies will be directed to raise the size and proportion of their investments in Chinese A-shares traded on the mainland and equity funds.

Wu Qing, head of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), said on Thursday the plan will bring in hundreds of billions of yuan of new capital every year from state-owned insurers.

It also involves guiding mutual fund managers to increase equity funds under their management.

The measures, which follow US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 10% punitive duty on Chinese imports, temporarily lifted market sentiment.

But persistent concerns over US tariff threats and the outlook for domestic economic growth later offset some of the optimism.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index retreated 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively.

“The implication (for the market) could be short-lived because the structural problem is still there. Most of the investors are still quite cautious at this point,” said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis.

Investors are unlikely to relinquish fully their preference for safe-haven assets, such as government bonds, Ng said.

Analysts also said the measures would probably only benefit certain groups of stocks.

“From an equity perspective, funds could end up increasing positions towards less volatile, larger domestic companies,” said Kai Wang, Asia equity market strategist at Morningstar, referring to high dividend stocks or large-cap companies such as Moutai.

Chinese stocks began 2025 with deep losses as investors fretted possible US tariffs would add to the pressure on a sluggish economy.

(Reporting by Summer Zhen; Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Barbara Lewis)

Trump policies likely to raise bond market’s inflation fears, top money managers say

NEW YORK – Giant US asset managers overseeing well over USD 20 trillion are anticipating continued price pressures because of President Donald Trump’s immigration and trade policies, a scenario that will likely keep threatening the bond market this year.

Vanguard, the world’s second-largest asset manager, which manages over USD 10 trillion, said in a first-quarter fixed income outlook report seen by Reuters that it expects “progress on inflation to stall,” with core measures of price pressures stuck above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and above 2.5% for most of 2025.

Trade and immigration policies implemented by Trump’s Republican administration could complicate the picture further, it said in a report written by its active fixed income team, led by Sara Devereux, the global head of fixed income group.

“While our base-case outlook is positive, we emphasize that the uncertainty created by the incoming administration creates a broader range of potential outcomes for growth, inflation, and monetary policy, both domestically and abroad,” it said.

Investors are waiting for more announcements from the new administration about policies on tariffs, immigration and tax cuts. Trump, who began a second term in the White House on Monday, vowed this week to hit the European Union with tariffs and said his administration was discussing a 10% punitive duty on Chinese imports – lower than the 60% he promised during his 2024 presidential campaign.

He also said he was thinking of imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1.

The impact of Trump’s policies on inflation and growth will depend on their scope and sequencing, said Libby Cantrill, PIMCO’s head of public policy, and Allison Boxer, an economist at the bond-focused investment firm, which manages USD 2 trillion in assets.

But in a scenario where tariffs increase and budget deficits widen due to expected tax cuts, growth could decelerate this year while inflation rises. “In our baseline outlook, we expect modestly higher core inflation of around 20 to 40 basis points in the US in 2025,” they wrote in a note on Thursday. “The negative growth effects would likely be of a similar size.”

Vanguard also warned about the possibly negative-growth impact of tariffs, depending on their size and distribution. “Geopolitical retaliation could increase business uncertainty and further constrain growth,” it added.

RISING YIELDS

US government bond yields, which rise when prices decline, have surged over the past few months, partly in anticipation of pro-growth policies under a Trump administration which could also reignite price pressures, complicating the Fed’s efforts to bring inflation down to its target.

Benchmark 10-year yields declined marginally after Trump’s inauguration on Monday, as his tariff talk was less aggressive than feared. Yields were last at 4.65%, down from more than a one-year high of 4.8% last week but still about 100 basis points higher from September, when the Fed started easing rates.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with USD 11.6 trillion in assets, expects yields will keep rising due to a combination of higher inflation and rising government debt levels. It is bearish on long-term government bonds, expecting 10-year yields will keep rising above 5%.

“We have never before seen today’s combination of sticky inflation, higher policy rates and high and rising debt levels,” the BlackRock Investment Institute, the asset manager’s research arm, said in a note this week.

“This combination represents a fragile equilibrium supporting investor demand for long-term bonds,” it said.

(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Paul Simao)

Oil falls as Trump urges OPEC to lower prices

NEW YORK – Oil fell 1% on Thursday after US President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down its cost during his address at the World Economic Forum.

Uncertainty over how Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies would affect global economic growth and energy demand also weighed on prices.

Brent crude futures settled 71 cents, or 0.9%, lower at USD 78.29 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled down 82 cents, or 1.09%, to USD 74.62.

Prices dipped after Trump announced he would ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil during his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

“Trump’s call for lower oil prices will naturally be welcomed by consumers and businesses but received warily by the US oil industry and other global suppliers,” said Clay Seigle, senior fellow for energy security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The energy industry has been calling for increased investments in global oil and gas projects, but bringing down oil prices could raise concerns about the economics of new projects, he added.

US crude oil stockpiles slipped to their lowest level since March 2022 last week even as refining activity slowed, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Thursday. But the drawdown was smaller than analysts had expected. Distillate inventories also declined, while gasoline inventories rose, the EIA said.

The broader economic implications of US tariffs could further dampen global oil demand growth, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova.

Trump has said he would add new tariffs to his sanctions threat against Russia if the country does not make a deal to end its war in Ukraine.

He also vowed to hit the European Union with tariffs and impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. On China, Trump said his administration was discussing a 10% punitive duty because fentanyl is being sent from there to the US

On Monday he declared a national energy emergency intended to provide him with the authority to reduce environmental restrictions on energy infrastructure and projects and ease permitting for new transmission and pipeline infrastructure.

There will be “more potential downward choppy movement in the oil market in the near term due to the Trump administration’s lack of clarity on trade tariffs policy and impending higher oil supplies from the US”, OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong said in an email.

(Reporting by Nicole Jao, Paul Carsten, Emily Chow, and Trixie Yap. Editing by Mark Potter and Nick Zieminski)

Trump uncertainties push safe-haven gold to near all-time high

Gold prices soared to near three-month highs on Wednesday, trading just below its record peak, fuelled by a soft dollar and lack of clarity around US President Donald Trump’s policy plans, which investors fear could trigger trade wars and elevate market volatility.

Spot gold added 0.4% to USD 2,755.2 per ounce as of 02:29 p.m. ET (1629 GMT). Prices were at their highest since Oct. 31 when they hit their all-time high of USD 2,790.15.

US gold futures settled 0.4% higher at USD 2,770.90.

The dollar index dipped to a more-than-three-week low earlier in the session, making greenback-priced bullion less expensive for holders of other currencies.

“There are uncertainties with proposed tariffs and other things, and gold typically does well when there’s a large or even a moderate amount of uncertainty in the market, it’s a natural place where people gravitate to,” said Ryan McIntyre, senior portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management.

Trump said his administration was discussing imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China on Feb. 1, the same day that he previously said Mexico and Canada could face levies of around 25%.

Gold is often viewed as a haven during times of economic and geopolitical turmoil, but Trump’s proposed policies are broadly regarded as inflationary, potentially compelling the US Federal Reserve to sustain elevated interest rates for an extended period to rein in rising price pressures.

Trump has not provided many details about his proposed tariffs, making investors question the aggressiveness of the move and the depth of its potential impacts.

“(Trump) has been perhaps just a shade less hawkish on tariffs as feared, which helps — less/lower tariffs is taken to indicate lower inflation hence potential for more rate cuts,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.

Spot silver was steady at USD 30.86, but hovered near a one-month high it hit on Jan. 16.

Platinum rose 0.8% to USD 950.50 and palladium gained 3% to USD 987.41.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore, Krishna Chandra Eluri, and Alan Barona)

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